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  • #1,141
  • Apr 17, 2017 12:53am Apr 17, 2017 12:53am
Quoting cat
{image}
I lost on this trade. It was a bitter loss. My fourth time trading DAX. I had relatively good trades as newbie on DAX. But this particular setup that occurred just after London open wiped all I had earned and a little more on my previous two trades I took during Frankfurt. Boy oh boy London open was volatile. I simply couldn't figure out where it was going to go. I had 10sec charts and 1min open at the same. Frankfurt opened I placed a buy trade, that went alright. Then came London I placed another buy all the while when on 2min all major MAs where hovering just above the price. And the pattern was a bearish one. I don't know how I got the buy idea from. But there it went, price moved in a matter of seconds I had to close it manually like I usually do since I started trading DAX. Price hesitated a bit around the MAs and and it went down. Few days later I looked back on the trade, I thought to myself how on earth did I miss this trade ?

Multi frame analysis is a big help for day traders like us. As long as I get a good signal on lower TFs I go in using bigger TF MAs as support or resistance. But in this instance I guess that rule was thrown out the window as the session was transitioning from Frankfurt to London. I was too caught up with what happened during Frankfurt instead of what was happening or to happen. You have to be on your toes all the time when you are trading. You don't live in the past session or the past hour, minute or even sometimes seconds. You trade in the now all the while keeping an idea as to where price will head in the next minute or hour. You live and learn. I guess. God I feel like I'm so close to getting it but at the same time so far.
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  • #1,142
  • Apr 17, 2017 3:17am Apr 17, 2017 3:17am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} I lost on this trade. It was a bitter loss. ...... {image}
What day was it, and what time frame is that chart?
  • #1,143
  • Edited 6:26am Apr 17, 2017 3:23am | Edited 6:26am
Quoting princefred
Point me to your friend so I can teach him ho to trade successfully if that will help him stay alive.
It's not as simple as that unfortunately, but thanks for the offer. I just spoke to him, so he's okay, but out of trading for now at least.
  • #1,144
  • Apr 17, 2017 5:32am Apr 17, 2017 5:32am
Piquant above hasn't replied yet, and I'm not sure exactly which move he was caught on the wrong side of, but just a word about the Dax, because it is one of the more volatile indexis, certainly more volatile than any forex pair I have ever traded, and one needs to become familiar with its moves before attempting to trade it.

The Dax has a nice big range, and a lot of pips can be made very quickly if you are on the right side of the move. Sometimes it can move beautifully...predictable and smooth, but on other occasions, it can be an absolute devil. One of the things the Dax loves is the fake - a strong counter move which can sucker a trader into trading the wrong way, only then to turn on a halfpenny to shoot off the other way. This I suspect is what happened to Piquant. So you have to try to determine which way momentum is lying for the morning session, and have your most likely S&R levels plotted as the best way to avoid being caught out.

The Dax like the Dow has been in a strong uptrend ever since Trump's victory, and in fact it still is, although there are signs that this is coming to an end. This has meant that many people have been caught out trying to sell into this, only to see the price surging higher, often in the US session. This doesn't mean that it shouldn't be shorted, indeed, on the time frames I use, I'm in and out both ways all the time, but one has to be very careful trading the Dax, because it can move one way then the other very quickly, so relatively tight stop losses and moving to break even fairly quickly are for me mandatory. No one should ever lose more than their initial stop loss, whatever they are trading.

I may start posting my early morning TA for the day ahead on the Dax, and if I do, it will be on this thread if anyone is interested. That's not to say it will necessarily be right all the time, but it may help one or two people who trade the Dax, or would like to.
  • #1,145
  • Apr 18, 2017 1:20am Apr 18, 2017 1:20am
As mentioned above, I'll post my pre-trade TA for the Dax this week, and if anyone finds it helps them, I'll continue for a while at least.

Frankfurt just took it up to my pivot level R1, which is also the H1 200sma, so not surprised to see it stop there. Above I have the 76.4% fib @ 12,196, so 12,200 will be my upper Resistance level for now. On the support side, clearly the CP @ 120 was supporting the price during the Asian session, and this still looks like a strong support level. If it pushes beyond that I have the 61.8% @ 103, and the 76.4% @ 083, just above today's S1.

My initial guess then is that the price will be moving between these levels this morning. I don't have it going much higher than 200, though it could always head for R2 @ 230, and I don't have it pushing lower than yesterday's low.

Looks like a day with no clear direction, though momentum favours the upside due to the strong support but the resistance at the levels indicated looks very capable of capping the price for today. I'll be taking trades both ways as they present themselves.
  • #1,146
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:17am Apr 18, 2017 2:17am
Quoting cat
Piquant above hasn't replied yet, and I'm not sure exactly which move he was caught on the wrong side of, but just a word about the Dax, because it is one of the more volatile indexis, certainly more volatile than any forex pair I have ever traded, and one needs to become familiar with its moves before attempting to trade it. The Dax has a nice big range, and a lot of pips can be made very quickly if you are on the right side of the move. Sometimes it can move beautifully...predictable and smooth, but on other occasions, it can be an absolute devil....

it was April 13th just few minutes after London open. The chart I had attached was 2min.
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  • #1,147
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:34am Apr 18, 2017 2:34am
Quoting cat
As mentioned above, I'll post my pre-trade TA for the Dax this week, and if anyone finds it helps them, I'll continue for a while at least. Frankfurt just took it up to my pivot level R1, which is also the H1 200sma, so not surprised to see it stop there. Above I have the 76.4% fib @ 12,196, so 12,200 will be my upper Resistance level for now. On the support side, clearly the CP @ 120 was supporting the price during the Asian session, and this still looks like a strong support level. If it pushes beyond that I have the 61.8% @ 103, and the 76.4%...
I would appreciate if you also attached the charts.

I was going to go up at least until we had a diversion form on the minute chart. I was aware that Frankfurt open took the price right up to the 1h and 30min 200ema resistance. It was unlikely that price was going to pierce through them considering that its the first day of the trading week and given that it was headed towards the bearish side on 30min already below the 200ema. I went long (on my demo) right after London open however I wasn't sure what to look for candle wise . Would you look at the candles (I know from broker to broker candles do tend to differ), from my observation I realised its usually better to wait 3-4 minutes before you go in. On my previous lost trade I went in about the same time when London opened (bad idea) and without predetermined direction (I realise how important it is to have one). I wasn't big on fib, well I never really used them properly. But today I drew in fib lines on my 30min chart, tried using them as support like you mentioned many times price did find support at 61.80 if it didn't hold I was going to aim for 76.40.

Another question how do you draw your fib lines ? on which TF ?
I just wanted to make sure I was using them the proper way.

Update: Your analysis was spot on, 200ema resistance on 1h and 30min sent the price back down as quickly as it went up.
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  • #1,148
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:51am Apr 18, 2017 2:51am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} it was April 13th just few minutes after London open. The chart I had attached was 2min.
You bought straight into the 15m 200ema, so it was always likely to come back down off of that, just as anyone buying into the H1 200ema/sma would have been fucked this morning!! Never a good idea to trade into these big MAS when they are in dominant positions like this.
  • #1,149
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:52am Apr 18, 2017 2:52am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} I would appreciate if you also attached the charts. . {image}
okay, I'll put a chart up tomorrow,
  • #1,150
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:57am Apr 18, 2017 2:57am
Quoting cat
{quote} You bought straight into the 15m 200ema, so it was always likely to come back down off of that, just as anyone buying into the H1 200ema/sma would have been fucked this morning!! Never a good idea to trade into these big MAS when they are in dominant positions like this.
agreed... dax running.
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #1,151
  • Apr 18, 2017 3:01am Apr 18, 2017 3:01am
As I mentioned yesterday, the Daily chart shows this bull run as having if not come to an end, then at least to have faltered, hence these very strong pushes South. It can go a lot lower this week towards its daily 100 and then 200sma, or, it can pull back from the cliff edge and rally a bit, the cliff edge being right where we are now I'd say. If it does go lower, I'll be watching H6 200ema @ 018 for support, especially as it is on today's S2 pivot.
  • #1,152
  • Apr 18, 2017 7:05am Apr 18, 2017 7:05am
Just a quick note about this Dax TA I've started on this thread. As this is a discussion thread, and not an interactive one ( not that there's really any difference ) I shall only be posting pre-trade analysis and anything else I think might be useful throughout the day when I am at my desk. For those who wish for more interaction with other traders, and to post trades, then the interactive Carpe Diem thread is the place to be. That said, anyone who wishes to post anything here, not just concerning the Dax, but any aspect of trading you wish to share or ask, then please feel free, you are more than welcome.
  • #1,153
  • Apr 19, 2017 1:30am Apr 19, 2017 1:30am
Good Morning.

On today's Dax, Dax is clear to drop lower, perhaps to the Daily 100sma around 11,840, with today's S2 just beneath @ 815. If one is looking for support however, then the H8 200sma is at 11,928, which is the next support level if we go lower than yesterday's low.

The smaller time frames are well supported atm, but the price is approaching the 200 moving averages on 10m time frames, which could hold it.

As you can see on the 10m chart I've posted, the 100sma has got beneath the price, and this is a bullish indication. I've got no positions on at the moment, so will wait for a pullback for the long side, but will short a rollover set up if I see it, as I doubt it'll go straight up from here, most likely the 10m 200ema or sma will halt it.

So it's really a question of deciding which way one wants to take this now. My plan of action is to go long if this pulls back a bit as the support on the smaller frames is there, but as I said, this is now open to drop a lot lower, so I will be watching very carefully for a rollover. As I type, the price is getting up close to its 10m 200ema, so we'll see what it does there.

Good luck to you whatever you're trading.
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  • #1,154
  • Apr 19, 2017 1:39am Apr 19, 2017 1:39am
Quoting cat
Good Morning. On today's Dax, Dax is clear to drop lower, perhaps to the Daily 100sma around 11,840, with today's S2 just beneath @ 815. If one is looking for support however, then the H8 200sma is at 11,928, which is the next support level if we go lower than yesterday's low. The smaller time frames are well supported atm, but the price is approaching the 200 moving averages on 10m time frames, which could hold it. As you can see on the 10m chart I've posted, the 100sma has got beneath the price, and this is a bullish indication. I've got no positions...
Thanks.. I like it.. will keep in mind your thoughts if I see a setup on dax for me.. Good pipin day for you
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #1,155
  • Apr 19, 2017 1:52am Apr 19, 2017 1:52am
Quoting cat
Good Morning. On today's Dax, Dax is clear to drop lower, perhaps to the Daily 100sma around 11,840, with today's S2 just beneath @ 815. If one is looking for support however, then the H8 200sma is at 11,928, which is the next support level if we go lower than yesterday's low. The smaller time frames are well supported atm, but the price is approaching the 200 moving averages on 10m time frames, which could hold it. As you can see on the 10m chart I've posted, the 100sma has got beneath the price, and this is a bullish indication. I've got no positions...

This looks like an up for now. But we have a diversion on daily and a negative candle just below the daily 20EMA - like you said it could go a lot lower. I already had few trades losses and winners. Thanks for posting your analysis. I'm hoping to learn more from your future posts.
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  • #1,156
  • Apr 20, 2017 1:07am Apr 20, 2017 1:07am
15m Dax chart for this morning. The two fib levels for the support, 61.8 and 76.4. If these are broken, we go lower, unless it triple bottoms, but they may well hold. Resistance is where I'd expect the price to at least get to this morning if we rally, the first level being the 100sma, the dotted line, and the higher being the 200ema/sma.

Good luck.
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  • #1,157
  • Apr 20, 2017 2:37am Apr 20, 2017 2:37am
That London fake was a particularly severe one on the Dax this morning, and a good reminder should anyone need one never to open a position just before the London open when it is not clear which way the price is going to go, especially with a tight stop loss.
  • #1,158
  • Apr 20, 2017 2:58am Apr 20, 2017 2:58am
Quoting cat
That London fake was a particularly severe one on the Dax this morning, and a good reminder should anyone need one never to open a position just before the London open when it is not clear which way the price is going to go, especially with a tight stop loss.

I think todays fake was better than yesterdays or the day before , that's for me. You of course you know a lot more than I do and have traded DAX much longer than I have. I've been having consecutive losers the last few days and its really starting to bug me AGAIN. My two big losses were trades that I took a minute or two after London open. A good reminder indeed for newbies like me.

Do I even want to keep doing this ?
Never a good feeling to keep losing. (it wasn't a big amount, but still loss is a loss)

Should I be doing something productive with my life ?

On my 3rd year and it feels like I'm not even there yet.
You feel good after few winners and losers strike again and you start to doubt yourself all over again.

Sorry for my rambling. Its just been so frustrating maybe I just need to take few days off. Sigh.
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  • #1,159
  • Apr 20, 2017 3:16am Apr 20, 2017 3:16am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} I think todays fake was better than yesterdays or the day before , that's for me. You of course you know a lot more than I do and have traded DAX much longer than I have. I've been having consecutive losers the last few days and its really starting to bug me AGAIN. My two big losses were trades that I took a minute or two after London open. A good reminder indeed for newbies like me. Do I even want to keep doing this ? Never a good feeling to keep losing. (it wasn't a big amount, but still loss is a loss) Should I be doing something productive...
For me there was no fake yesterday, and Tuesday's was relatively easy as it was up into the H1 200sma, so when it turned and closed below the 1m 20sma, that was the place to short, AWAY from a big moving average. Today I was expecting the price to move up, though I wasn't sure whether the support would hold. Simply because it did not keep on going south, left a pretty long lower stalk on the 1m tf, followed by 5 successive positive candles, was a strong indication that it would rally.

Hang on in there, no one said trading was easy, but you have GOT to be very sure of your ground before you put your money on the line, otherwise you will lose it. I've been ten years at this game. You've been three - yet we are both still learning, only I am probably a bit further along that learning curve than you are, that's all it is.

For me this would not be a time to take a few days off, this would be a time for sitting down quietly to analyze what I am doing wrong. Take a break from live trading sure, but continue to study, because that's the only way you're going to make it.

If you are beginning to ask yourself fundamental questions about whether trading is something you want to do with your life, then that is a separate issue which only you can answer. All I would add is that whatever you do end up doing with your life, the ability to trade is a great skill to have, and once you have it, you will never lose it.
  • #1,160
  • Apr 20, 2017 3:31am Apr 20, 2017 3:31am
BTW Piquant, you may do better dropping the 10sec tf in favour of the 20 sec, if your nest tf is 1 minute. This is because the 20 sec will tie in better with the 1m tf than the 10 sec one will, which really only should be used for entries. You will find the 20 sec will be easier to make sense of, and will still give you the optimal entries you are looking for.
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