How to tell if the Bull/Bear trend is over, without an indicator | Forex Factory

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How to tell if the Bull/Bear trend is over, without an indicator

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Apr 19, 2017 6:22am Apr 17, 2017 1:34am | Edited Apr 19, 2017 6:22am
How can you to tell that the Bull/Bear trend is over without indicator?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 25 KB

Let say we had 3 legs down.
The 3rd leg got 100% retracement.
1. Does a 100% retracement on the 3rd leg means the trend is over?
2. Do you know any other method that tells you the trend is over?

Thank you guys.

=========================

For us who is lazy defining the BEAR/BULL leg.
I programmed a zigzag indicator (no redraw).
The zigzag is based on Stochastic.


In the indicator data window there are 2 variables
1. StochasticZigZag which indicates the price
2. Value2 indicates Oversold/Overbought of Stochastic (1 = OVERBOUGHT, -1 = OVERSOLD).
Here is a simple example on 100% RT using the zigSto indicator

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 20 KB


Indicator update.
Now the Stochastic in the zigzag can be configured accordingly. I use
kPeriod 14 or 5
Slowing 3 or 3
dPeriod 5 or 3
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 zigSto.mq4   3 KB | 555 downloads | Uploaded Apr 19, 2017 5:35am
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #2
  • Apr 17, 2017 2:24am Apr 17, 2017 2:24am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.png Size: 28 KB


What do you think guys?
Does the method sound?

I mean can we rely on the 100% retracement on the last leg that the trend is over?
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #3
  • Apr 17, 2017 2:29am Apr 17, 2017 2:29am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.png Size: 33 KB


it started to making sense hmmmm
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #4
  • Apr 17, 2017 2:34am Apr 17, 2017 2:34am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.png Size: 27 KB


Does 100% retracement tells that the trend is over?
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #5
  • Apr 17, 2017 2:49am Apr 17, 2017 2:49am
Market made 100% retracement until the 2nd leg and took a break for a moment then advancing higher creating a divergence
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD divergence.png Size: 180 KB
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  • #6
  • Apr 17, 2017 2:57am Apr 17, 2017 2:57am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD divergence.png Size: 36 KB


does 100% retracement + divergence on the last leg proves that it is a proven method to make money???
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #7
  • Apr 17, 2017 3:02am Apr 17, 2017 3:02am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 30 KB


What can we say about 100% retracement on the 2nd or 3rd leg?

Can we say that it is a reversal sign?
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #8
  • Apr 17, 2017 3:05am Apr 17, 2017 3:05am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 17 KB


Will there be a 100% retracement on the 3rd leg?
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #9
  • Apr 17, 2017 4:40am Apr 17, 2017 4:40am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10
  • Apr 17, 2017 4:57am Apr 17, 2017 4:57am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD divergence.png Size: 22 KB

Attachment g
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  • #11
  • Apr 17, 2017 5:15am Apr 17, 2017 5:15am
100% retracement on the last leg is a proof of reversal?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD divergence.png Size: 29 KB
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  • #12
  • Apr 17, 2017 5:20am Apr 17, 2017 5:20am
USDJPY 100% retracement bearish reversal

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY divergence.png Size: 26 KB
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  • #13
  • Apr 17, 2017 5:34am Apr 17, 2017 5:34am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD divergence.png Size: 20 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 19 KB
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #14
  • Apr 17, 2017 5:47am Apr 17, 2017 5:47am
Quoting yousername
{image} 2269554
Great analysis
Let Market Tell You
  • #15
  • Apr 17, 2017 5:55am Apr 17, 2017 5:55am
Quoting Monokl
{quote} Great analysis
Thanks

I really appreciate if you could help me find analysis of another market using the 100% RT strategy on the last 2 or 3 or 4 leg up/down?

Please do us a favor, so we can kill the market and make BIG BUX on daily basis.

THANKS aGain
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #16
  • Apr 17, 2017 6:01am Apr 17, 2017 6:01am
Line chart also very good to see the trend clearly.
Let Market Tell You
  • #17
  • Apr 17, 2017 6:02am Apr 17, 2017 6:02am
Every daily candle, you can see the trend in lower time frame
Let Market Tell You
  • #18
  • Apr 17, 2017 6:02am Apr 17, 2017 6:02am
Trend within trend
Let Market Tell You
  • #19
  • Apr 17, 2017 7:01am Apr 17, 2017 7:01am
USDCAD D1TF there's a 100% retracement on the 3rd leg changed into a side way move.

What will it become?

Support @ 1.3290

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.png Size: 30 KB
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #20
  • Apr 17, 2017 7:11am Apr 17, 2017 7:11am
Quoting yousername
USDCAD D1TF there's a 100% retracement on the 3rd leg changed into a side way move. What will it become? Support @ 1.3290 {image}
seems like going down
Let Market Tell You
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