Whats your best money management method? 52 replies
How to flow with the order flow? 26 replies
Money Management / Risk Management 24 replies
Money management model for multiple strategy trading method 16 replies
Most popular money management method. 7 replies
Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management
US Dollar Index
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=488
The US dollar fell from 100.71 to 100.46. That’s a 0.25% move. Allegedly that constitutes “tank” and “sharply lower”.
April 16 US Dollar Index Update
Watching the futures, the index is now at 100.30 as of 8:11 PM central.
If you insist on attributing that follow-through to Trump, the index is down 0.41% since Wednesday, April 12.
Can the President Move the Dollar?
If Trump unexpectedly bombed Germany, Japan, or China there would be a major move of some sort in the dollar.
But other than major unexpected action, the president cannot do much. Jawboning is unlikely to do anything at all, as we have just witnessed.
Actions, Not Words
Given the Fed has all but promised three rate hikes this year, the dollar is highly likely to head south if those hikes do not take place.
Meanwhile, the yield curve is sure acting as if economic weakness, not a strengthening economy is at hand.
Trump has nothing to do with that picture either.
Economy Sputtering
It’s obvious the economy is sputtering unless you happen to believe soft indicators more than hard data.
So, if the dollar falls, and that is highly likely, don’t credit Trump and don’t listen to mainstream media nonsense.
Related Articles
My first quarter GDP estimate sits at 0.4% (see link #1 above). We will have an advance estimate from the BEA on April 28.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
In Asian markets, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.1 percent in holiday-thinned trade, while Japan's Nikkei fell as much as 0.6 pct to hit a five-month low before ending up 0.1 percent. A raft of Chinese economic data beat market expectations but did not produce notable market reactions as investors had been already optimistic following a recent string of positive China numbers. China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, a tad above economists' forecast of 6.8 percent.
Top Asian News
Most European bourses remain closed for Easter holidays. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3 percent to 380.58, the lowest in more than a week. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index also dropped 0.3 percent.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index slid 0.2 percent.
Top European News
In currencies, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3 percent to 1,218.01 at 10:13 a.m. in London, the lowest in three weeks. The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.0627. The British pound strengthened 0.2 percent to $1.2542, the strongest in more than two weeks. The Turkish lira rose 1.2 percent to 3.6648 per dollar.
In commodities, gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,289.89 an ounce, the strongest in more than five months. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8 percent to $52.73 a barrel, the lowest in more than a week. The U.S. continued to ramp up drilling, stoking concerns the nation’s surge in output this year will counter OPEC-led efforts to cut a global supply surplus. Iron ore fell 2 percent to 501 yuan per metric ton, the lowest in more than 14 weeks.
US Event Calendar
DislikedComments from Benjaminis: I am going to start a new approach and tell you all that you need to know and be aware of from this Zerohedge article.
It is really only about Rate Hikes and the US 10 Year Bonds tell you more about the markets then the words of the FED and their spinners.
Here is a Daily Chart of the 10 Year US Bonds from Finviz.
You can see that during September and October and Novermber 2016 the US Bonds were trading around 130.000 than they bottomed around 122.000 and gradually moved up to where they are now at 126.33.
For those new...Ignored
Mike Mish Shedlock
COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: This report is what I would call BREAKDOWN of HARD DATA as in COLD HARD FACTS.
The difference between PERCEPTIONS (FALSE) and REALITY...
This is most IMPORTANT to understand and once you read it once then you understand it and why it is REAL and POWERFUL KNOWLEDGE to have.
Is there anyone reading this posts that would care to comment ? It makes it easier for me when I understand what you are thinking and better for you when I can make sure that you understand what I am saying. The last hour of today's markets from 3:00 PM to 4:00 PM is the most important to watch to see if there is any change in trends for today.
The time is now 2:15 PM Eastern Standard Time...
Here is the 5 Minute chart from Finviz on US 30.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5
Here is the 5 Minute chart on USD/JPY.
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5
Here is the 5 Minute chart on the US 10 Year Bonds.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5
NOTE: You can SEE the MONEY FLOWING out of the 10 Year US Bonds and of course the Yields Go Up and the money is ROTATING into the US Equity Markets.
Here is the 5 Minute chart on the US Dollar Index.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5
Does anyone have any questions ? Do you understand what I am explaining ?
Benjaminis
DislikedCOMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: This report is what I would call BREAKDOWN of HARD DATA as in COLD HARD FACTS. The difference between PERCEPTIONS (FALSE) and REALITY... This is most IMPORTANT to understand and once you read it once then you understand it and why it is REAL and POWERFUL KNOWLEDGE to have. Is there anyone reading this posts that would care to comment ? It makes it easier for me when I understand what you are thinking and better for you when I can make sure that you understand what I am saying. The last hour of today's markets from 3:00...Ignored
TAGS The FedMoney and BanksMoney and Banking
6 HOURS AGORon Paul
Audit the Fed recently took a step closer to becoming law, when it was favorably reported by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. This means the House could vote on the bill at any time. The bill passed by voice vote without any objections, although Fed defenders did launch hysterical attacks on the bill during the debate as well as at a hearing on the bill the previous week.
One representative claimed that auditing the Fed would result in rising interest rates, a stock market crash, a decline in the dollar’s value, and a complete loss of confidence in the US economy. Those who understand economics know that all of this is actually what awaits America unless we change our monetary policy. Passing the audit bill is the vital first step in that process, since an audit can provide Congress a road map to changing the fiat currency system.
Another charge leveled by the Fed’s defenders is that subjecting the Fed to an audit would make the Fed subject to political pressure. There are two problems with this argument. First, nothing in the audit bill gives Congress or the president any new authority to interfere in the Federal Reserve’s operations. Second, and most importantly, the Federal Reserve has a long history of giving in to presidential pressure for an "accommodative" monetary policy.
The most notorious example of Fed chairmen tailoring monetary policy to fit the demands of a president is Nixon-era Federal Reserve Chair Arthur Burns. Burns and Nixon may be an extreme example — after all no other president was caught on tape joking with the Fed chair about Fed independence, but every president has tried to influence the Fed with varying degrees of success. For instance, Lyndon Johnson summoned the Fed chair to the White House to berate him for not tailoring monetary policy to support Johnson’s guns and butter policies.
Federal Reserve chairmen have also used their power to shape presidential economic policy. According to Maestro, Bob Woodward's biography of Alan Greenspan, Bill Clinton once told Al Gore that Greenspan was a “man we can deal with,” while Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen claimed the Clinton administration and Greenspan’s Fed had a “gentleman’s agreement” regarding the Fed’s support for the administration’s economic policies.
The Federal Reserve has also worked to influence the legislative branch. In the 1970s, the Fed organized a campaign by major banks and financial institutions to defeat a prior audit bill. The banks and other institutions who worked to keep the Fed’s operations a secret are not only under the Fed’s regulatory jurisdiction, but are some of the major beneficiaries of the current monetary system.
There can be no doubt that, as the audit bill advances through the legislative process, the Fed and its allies will ramp up both public and behind-the-scenes efforts to kill the bill. Can anyone dismiss the possibility that Janet Yellen will attempt to "persuade" Donald Trump to drop his support for Audit the Fed in exchange for an “accommodative” monetary policy that supports the administration’s proposed spending on overseas militarism and domestic infrastructure?
While auditing the Fed is supported by the vast majority of Americans, it is opposed by powerful members of the financial elite and the deep state. Therefore, those of us seeking to change our national monetary policy must redouble our efforts to force Congress to put America on a path to liberty, peace, and prosperity by auditing, then ending, the Fed.
Originally published by the Ron Paul Institute.
Reserve balances that are in excess of requirements are frequently referred to as idle cash that banks choose to keep parked at the Fed. These comments are sensible at the level of an individual bank, which can clearly choose how much money to keep in its reserve account based on available lending opportunities and other factors. However, the total quantity of reserve balances doesnt depend on these individual decisions. How can it be that whats true for each individual bank is not true for the banking system as a whole?
Since each dollar of bank deposit requires approximately only 10 cents of required reserves at the Fed, then each dollar of excess reserves can be converted by banks into 10 dollars of deposits. That is, for every dollar in excess reserves, a bank can lend 10 dollars to businesses or households and still meet its required reserve ratio. And since a banks loan simply increases the dollar amount in the borrowers account at that bank, these new loans are part of the economys total stock of liquidity. Thus, if every dollar of excess reserves were converted into new loans at a ratio of 10 to one, the $2.4 trillion in excess reserves would become $24 trillion in new loans, and M2 liquidity would rise from $12 trillion to $36 trillion, a tripling of M2.
Since the financial crisis, American banks have increased their excess reserves, that is, the cash funds they hold over and above the Federal Reserves requirements. Excess reserves grew from $1.9 billion in August 2008 to $2.6 trillion in January 2015.
Whether or not banks lend has nothing to do with interest on excess loans. Rather, the decision to pay interest on excess reserves is simply $22 billion in free money to banks every year, at taxpayer expense.
At best, paying interest on excess reserves was a purposeful backdoor bailout of insolvent banks.
The ECB arguably compounded European banks problems by forcing excess reserves into the system, then charging interest on them, weakening banks in the process.
Mike Mish Shedlock
COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: This is MIND BOGGLING INFORMATION MOST LIKELY NEW TO MOST OF YOU ...
However it is IMPORTANT just to be aware of it so you understand the RULES OF THE GAME so that you can JOIN IN AND PLAY on the WINNING SIDE and then CHANGE OVER once they LOSE IT ALL and Mother NATURE guarantees that...
Part 2: Taxation
It would be easy to present the above as a boon to all citizens. Indeed, it might well be peddled as “the only possibility for a return to prosperity.” It will take a while for the fact to sink in that citizens have entered into a state of complete economic bondage to their bank and government, and that to operate outside the system is difficult in the extreme.
There can be no doubt that barter would become more common (whether legal or not), but virtually all other transactions would be centrally controlled and audited.
David Stockman, in a recent edition of Zero Hedge, stated,
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff even argues in the daily paper FAZ that cash currency should be banned altogether. Central banks could impose negative interest rates more easily that way, he explained. Tax evaders and criminals would also find life more difficult. From this perspective, banknotes and coins appear superfluous, he said at a presentation at the IFO institute in Munich. Measures to spur the economy could be implemented more easily that way.
This, of course, is the concept detailed above, although he adds two nice touches. First, he suggests that negative interest rates are desirable; that cashless currency is the answer. He also adds that a new system will help to eliminate criminal behaviour.
Socialism Foothold
In 1936, John Maynard Keynes published his signature book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. It was an instant success with both socialists and governments around the world—the latter, because his new “economic principles” stated that governments should control the monetary system—full stop. It was music to their ears, and most governments have been devotees ever since.
Mister Keynes was, first and foremost, a socialist. Although he received his education in economics, right from the start, he treated economics as a philosophy, not a science. By his own admission, he sought to redraft the laws of economics to serve an unrelated end: the advancement of socialism. Like the best socialists, he believed that truth was irrelevant; all that mattered was the objective.
However, in recent years, we’ve seen a small rebirth in the popularity of Classical Economics. More and more people, observing the repeated failures of Keynesian Economics, have been crediting Adam Smith and likeminded economists as having had the right idea all along. After all, economics is the science of how money works, not an art form that may be altered at the whim of the theorist to fit some political preference.
And so, there are many (myself included) who are eager to see what we believe would be the well-deserved downfall of Keynesianism, as the debt-ridden, entitlement-driven economies of the world collapse under their own ponderous weight.
But this hope may well be premature. In my belief, there is a final rabbit in the Keynesian hat, and that rabbit is the electronic currency described above. And if such a currency could be sold to a gullible public in one country, it could be sold just as easily in other jurisdictions.
This being the case, it would not be much of a leap if the concept were to be discussed universally and many governments were to announce that an international electronic currency, issued by the IMF, would solve all the currency problems, including those of currency exchange and international trade.
For at least one hundred years, there have been those who have hoped for and worked toward a one-world currency. There can be no doubt that the push for such a creation would receive support at the highest levels, internationally. If so, daydreams of a return to Adam Smith or a realisation of the dreams of Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek may, for the foreseeable future, be just that: daydreams.
As to what the overall effect might be, we might consider the words of uber-financier Mayer Rothschild:
“Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.”
Herr Rothschild knew whereof he spoke. This principle led him and his descendants to become immensely wealthy and powerful on an international scale.
An electronic currency leads directly toward the bondage of the people—directly away from freedom. As a hedge against such controls, diversification into hard assets such as precious metals and real estate might be considered. Just as important, assets held outside any country that is increasing its controls might be a positive move.
The ultimate way to diversify your savings internationally is to transfer it out of the immediate reach of your home government and into something tangible. Something that cannot be easily confiscated, nationalized, frozen, or devalued at the drop of a hat or with a couple of taps on the keyboard—while retaining as much privacy as legally possible. Physical gold and silver stored abroad in a non-bank vault fits the bill.
Gold and silver have served as money for centuries and across many different civilizations. They have always been inherently international assets. There is nothing at all particularly American, Chinese, Russian, or European about gold or silver. Buying gold and silver is perhaps the easiest step you can take toward internationalizing your savings. The next step is to store your precious metals in a safe foreign jurisdiction.
Today it is easy and convenient to own physical gold and silver offshore in places like Singapore and Switzerland in a non-bank private vault. Find out how you can internationally diversify your precious metals by downloading this guide.
