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Supply demand trading and order flow

  • #21
  • Apr 14, 2017 5:20am Apr 14, 2017 5:20am
Quoting Darastonius
If price is shooting up, that's not good anyway, because the upswing is coming from professional demand. A good short is, when the zone has a large and quick downmove coming down from it, then as price retraces, it is grinding up slowly. Timeframes are not that strictly important, but an H4 zone in my opinion is too large for intraday trading. What I do is, go to H1, are there clear zones around, if yes I mark it, if no, I go to 30M, and so on. Also if I find a good zone on higher TF, I might be able to pinpoint it better on a smaller one, for better...
Yes some times price slowly grinds away. But in my example i told The price ultimately retests the demand level and shoots up to the move made but in my small entry TF that is 15m there are no clear demand levels for me to enter. So multiple TF analysis dint actually help me here. That is what i mean . Using a Big TF as a base one and using a small TF for entries and exits. I hope you got what i am trying to say.

Quoting wkyleg
{quote} You mean like GBPUSD zone from 1985? {image}
Exactly. almost 30years old Demand level . and price is actually near the demand level. So according to SD who are the actually buyers who will be waiting to buy at that zone ? it has formed 3 decades ago. will there be any unfilled orders in that area for that long period ?

Quoting Vendetti
It's much easier than this. In the past 28 years trading the most valuable lesson I earned wasn't from trading someone else's 'system' but from observing price movement after a series of news releases. Supply and Demand in normal market conditions is always the same. It develops in ebb and flow of movement. When it comes to news releases it's NOT the order flow or demand that makes prices move. The volatility stems from the lack of supply and demand relative to 'normal' market conditions. Volatility is the lack of orders, or willingness of market...
Yes there are some levels which will cause the price to move drastically when the news comes and it is a reaction to the previous levels. but i dint understand what you are saying about historical lag? in m1 charts ? can you explain more with charts?
  • #22
  • Apr 14, 2017 5:52am Apr 14, 2017 5:52am
Supply demand zones are over simplified... You'll get chopped to hell taking ones that don't work.
Must consider other market conditions .. before taking a trade.. Liquidty, volitlity, time of day, ect...
Need to read the whole market structure across many time frames.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #23
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:54am Apr 14, 2017 11:54am
Quoting bloodpoodle
Supply demand zones are over simplified... You'll get chopped to hell taking ones that don't work. Must consider other market conditions .. before taking a trade.. Liquidty, volitlity, time of day, ect... Need to read the whole market structure across many time frames.
True that. There are many levels which will cause fake outs or not respected . The key is to identify the good levels and enter the trade.
  • #24
  • Apr 14, 2017 6:50pm Apr 14, 2017 6:50pm
Quoting zoomfire
{quote} Yes there are some levels which will cause the price to move drastically when the news comes and it is a reaction to the previous levels. but i dint understand what you are saying about historical lag? in m1 charts ? can you explain more with charts?
Here you go Zoom. In the 3 images, in series.. pre news on ADP Non Farm 2/1/17 range and targets identified on the M1 (which can only be done consistently on the m1) No lag of studies telling me when volume is on the move which allows instant execution. That being said obviously is that true global volume is difficult to obtain and a proprietary model is being used and not shown. But the ranges are identified pre release and pin pointed where the turns will occur.

Image 1 shows pre news levels and targets. on the M1
Image 2 shows precise hit of target 1 and range bound move
Image 3 shows advance on target 2.

Now to add, and Ill grab another screen shot. Price bounced off target 2 3 times before bouncing higher by 25 pips. Look at the 2/1 ADP non farm release for the day and you'll see the bounces.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ADP NonFarm.PNG Size: 343 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: adp2.PNG Size: 415 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: adp3.PNG Size: 443 KB
Trading isn't investing. Don't let your trades become investments.
  • #25
  • Apr 15, 2017 6:14am Apr 15, 2017 6:14am
Quoting Vendetti
{quote} Here you go Zoom. In the 3 images, in series.. pre news on ADP Non Farm 2/1/17 range and targets identified on the M1 (which can only be done consistently on the m1) No lag of studies telling me when volume is on the move which allows instant execution. That being said obviously is that true global volume is difficult to obtain and a proprietary model is being used and not shown. But the ranges are identified pre release and pin pointed where the turns will occur. Image 1 shows pre news levels and targets. on the M1 Image 2 shows precise...
Yes the price bounced because it needed to consume all the sell orders and all small sellers in between in order to shoot higher.
  • #26
  • Apr 15, 2017 6:23am Apr 15, 2017 6:23am
i am performing multiple TF analysis but its getting hard to find entries and exits once the price enters a demand zone. I have used big TF as 4h and got a demand zone. Once the price entered the demand zone i scrolled to 1H TF for entries but i could not find any good entries but ultimately the Price shoot up. The area marked between the two different vertical lines are the area in which i should have made long entries. I have attached charts also.
The first chart is 4h where i have the the bias to long or short.
the other two charts are the 1h entry TF charts where the price actually soared up but i dint get a clear entry at all.
Am i doing it any other way?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu4h.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1h.1.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1h.2.png Size: 35 KB
  • #27
  • Apr 15, 2017 6:55am Apr 15, 2017 6:55am
Quoting zoomfire
i am performing multiple TF analysis but its getting hard to find entries and exits once the price enters a demand zone. I have used big TF as 4h and got a demand zone. Once the price entered the demand zone i scrolled to 1H TF for entries but i could not find any good entries but ultimately the Price shoot up. The area marked between the two different vertical lines are the area in which i should have made long entries. I have attached charts also. The first chart is 4h where i have the the bias to long or short. the other two charts are the 1h...
Hi Zoom-

My perspective of Traders , retail specifically is that logic is reversed as they gauge price action higher or lower. Market makers tend to look at the inverse. So getting to your marked zones to decide long/short has missed the opportunities that surfaced on the way there. Once retail has entered at those levels maker makers move price against them.

Keep in mind they provide the liquidity to your broker, and that of hundreds of other brokers. They know exactly when retail has entered the market. They know the risk levels and margin used of retail so they move prices to shake them out.

Remove lagging studies, rely on instantaneous responses to global volumes and think like a market maker taking small slices of the continuous ebb and flow on the move up to that level.. then follow the market makers in deciding to join them shaking out the retail traders.
Trading isn't investing. Don't let your trades become investments.
  • #28
  • Apr 15, 2017 7:00am Apr 15, 2017 7:00am
Quoting Vendetti
{quote} Hi Zoom- My perspective of Traders , retail specifically is that logic is reversed as they gauge price action higher or lower. Market makers tend to look at the inverse. So getting to your marked zones to decide long/short has missed the opportunities that surfaced on the way there. Once retail has entered at those levels maker makers move price against them. Keep in mind they provide the liquidity to your broker, and that of hundreds of other brokers. They know exactly when retail has entered the market. They know the risk levels and margin...
I think you dint get what i am trying to say. I did not miss my trades , i got inside the trade of 4h. once price entered the demand level it shoot up to next supply level marked in red. The thing is in smaller TF there were demand zones formed but price did not come back at all and i missed the entries. So if TF are fractals why there no entry or good demand zone to which price came back which had good profitable ratio?
  • #29
  • Apr 15, 2017 7:02am Apr 15, 2017 7:02am
In my opinion you are looking for too much confirmation, thus missing opportunities. This is called speculation for a reason.

The first picture is marked good. Both zones are clear, but be aware, that the move was much quicker coming out from the supply zone. 3 bearish candles take out pretty much everything down to the demand area. So even though I would probably not take the first touch of the demand below (2 candles left to your first arrow), it still worked up its way to supply. That is the first trade.

The second trade is a short from the first touch of the supply zone. This is definitely a good short, because price needs about 15 candles to retrace that 3 big bearish candles coming from supply. THis means the ease of movement is down at that moment. So a short where the second purple vertical line is good.

I would not trade the second long entry later, neither a short from the supply area at the 4th vertical line, because these zones are not fresh anymore, thus lower probability.

EDIT: I see what you are trying to say. Price didn't come back to the lower TFs zones. Well, that's a bummer. Nothing can be done about it. It is not a rule in SD trading, that all zones have to be retested. Or that clear zones have to be formed. Price leaves zones behind very often.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #30
  • Apr 15, 2017 7:17am Apr 15, 2017 7:17am
Quoting zoomfire
{quote} I think you dint get what i am trying to say. I did not miss my trades , i got inside the trade of 4h. once price entered the demand level it shoot up to next supply level marked in red. The thing is in smaller TF there were demand zones formed but price did not come back at all and i missed the entries. So if TF are fractals why there no entry or good demand zone to which price came back which had good profitable ratio?


The only thing that would truly give you a read on any lower TF opportunities are volume pullbacks and breaches higher/lower. But volume in MT4 is garbage.


Here is a proprietary volume feed image. Global volume, price action filtering, support/resistance levels on both price AND volume (white line, net delta)

the arrows show breaches in that direction without historical lag. That triggers trades or reversals.

the confluence of staying aligned with both price /volume ebb and flow throws off a half dozen opportunities either direction.

Back to what you're doing- I don't think it's wrong if it's given you solid opportunities- but w the lower TF's are not always fractals in a static analytical sense. Find volume insight and you have gold!

attached chart is M1 time frame
Attached Image
Trading isn't investing. Don't let your trades become investments.
  • #31
  • Apr 15, 2017 7:33am Apr 15, 2017 7:33am
Hi,

Liquidity is needed for large players to enter their positions which is only possible at major support/resistance AREAS on the higher time frames.

The key thing is whether a support remains as support and vice versa.
  • #32
  • Edited 7:50am Apr 15, 2017 7:40am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting limzy
Hi, Liquidity is needed for large players to enter their positions which is only possible at major support/resistance AREAS on the higher time frames. The key thing is whether a support remains as support and vice versa.
Exactly! That's why I make sure support and resistance are measured on both price AND volume.

The bigger opportunities present themselves at those higher/lower levels but along the way chewing up the middle is the juicy stuff!
Trading isn't investing. Don't let your trades become investments.
  • #33
  • Apr 15, 2017 10:39am Apr 15, 2017 10:39am
Quoting zoomfire
i am performing multiple TF analysis but its getting hard to find entries and exits once the price enters a demand zone. I have used big TF as 4h and got a demand zone. Once the price entered the demand zone i scrolled to 1H TF for entries but i could not find any good entries but ultimately the Price shoot up. The area marked between the two different vertical lines are the area in which i should have made long entries. I have attached charts also. The first chart is 4h where i have the the bias to long or short. the other two charts are the 1h...
Hello zoomfire.

If i may, some thoughts for you to consider.
This is by no means a detailed analysis of the pair or trade, just some observations based on the question you raised

best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd zoomfire 4hr.PNG Size: 43 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd zoomfire.PNG Size: 85 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #34
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:03pm Apr 15, 2017 12:03pm
Quoting Darastonius
In my opinion you are looking for too much confirmation, thus missing opportunities. This is called speculation for a reason. The first picture is marked good. Both zones are clear, but be aware, that the move was much quicker coming out from the supply zone. 3 bearish candles take out pretty much everything down to the demand area. So even though I would probably not take the first touch of the demand below (2 candles left to your first arrow), it still worked up its way to supply. That is the first trade. The second trade is a short from the first...
Yes you got my point. Maybe if i had used multiple TF analysis method, this trading opportunity would have been missed as prices never created good demand zones in 1h TF. So multiple TF analysis wouldnt have helped me. If i had believed 4h TF demand level itself i could have made this trade.


Quoting Vendetti
{quote} The only thing that would truly give you a read on any lower TF opportunities are volume pullbacks and breaches higher/lower. But volume in MT4 is garbage. Here is a proprietary volume feed image. Global volume, price action filtering, support/resistance levels on both price AND volume (white line, net delta) the arrows show breaches in that direction without historical lag. That triggers trades or reversals. the confluence of staying aligned with both price /volume ebb and flow throws off a half dozen opportunities either direction. Back...
Yes, but isnt that a volume indicator?? The main idea here is to eliminate all indicators so wont using volume indicator create more inputs?
correct me if am wrong.

Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello zoomfire. If i may, some thoughts for you to consider. This is by no means a detailed analysis of the pair or trade, just some observations based on the question you raised best wishes{image}{image}
Thank you AKT for replying back. This is just an educational discussion. you have showed the level inside level ie 1h dz inside 4hdz. Maybe the TF i use isnt far enough? Because i thought that inbetween the 4h DZ and SZ , i thought there will be 2-3 DZ formed in smaller entry TF which is 1h. or should i reduce my TF size?
  • #35
  • Apr 15, 2017 8:07pm Apr 15, 2017 8:07pm
[quote=zoomfire;9765455]{quote} Yes, but isnt that a volume indicator?? The main idea here is to eliminate all indicators so wont using volume indicator create more inputs? correct me if am wrong. {quote}

It's not merely an indicator. It's volume analysis without any historical lag. So as white volume delta crosses mid point, prices move higher or respectively. But keep in mind, it's not just volume, it's the total of price action and volume. Both need to be in alignment. It's volumes that move prices not prices moving volumes
Trading isn't investing. Don't let your trades become investments.
  • #36
  • Apr 16, 2017 2:27am Apr 16, 2017 2:27am
Are you using current market sentiment in your analysis?

Traders whom may still have orders at previous S/D levels will pull them if market sentiment changes, or goes against their predictions before price returns.

In a macro-example, after BoJ changed its monetary policy to spur inflation & weaken the Yen in 2012, sellers in Usd/Jpy were pulling their sell orders and changing their holdings according. Price surpassed 124 as it was a reference of the highest value U/J has been.

I know a way to predict S/D levels in U/J is to research where to find importer & exporter orders. Traders on their behalf will leak info as to where their orders are placed while they look for opposing orders to complete the trades.
ForexOrderFlow.com Return This Year: 15.0%
  • #37
  • Apr 16, 2017 7:11am Apr 16, 2017 7:11am
Quoting Ryan420
Are you using current market sentiment in your analysis? Traders whom may still have orders at previous S/D levels will pull them if market sentiment changes, or goes against their predictions before price returns. In a macro-example, after BoJ changed its monetary policy to spur inflation & weaken the Yen in 2012, sellers in Usd/Jpy were pulling their sell orders and changing their holdings according. Price surpassed 124 as it was a reference of the highest value U/J has been. I know a way to predict S/D levels in U/J is to research where to find...
The solution is more logical. It's complicated to maintain but quite simple in its analytical approach.

If your price action analysis can tell you that ebb/flow are greater than 1 pip you've covered your expense of trading. The only thing left is to stay dynamically connected to the market using volume that provides you high frequency sentiment without lag.

As prices reach those SD levels the volume tells you if it's failing or pushing right through.

With that prowess you're guessing very little about movements and merely trading from a neutral perspective with stops tighter than a flies bum while the market gives you a dynamic read where to take profit.
Trading isn't investing. Don't let your trades become investments.
  • #38
  • Apr 16, 2017 7:27am Apr 16, 2017 7:27am
Hey,

Sam Seiden was one of the originals when it comes to trading order flow Supply/Demand, see the archive below with some sample articles;

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/archive/

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lesson...en-overlooked/

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lesson...sting-results/

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lesson...trading-focus/

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lesson...mple-not-easy/

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lesson...sional-or-pay/

You're welcome...

D
  • #39
  • Apr 17, 2017 11:46am Apr 17, 2017 11:46am
Quoting Ryan420
Are you using current market sentiment in your analysis? Traders whom may still have orders at previous S/D levels will pull them if market sentiment changes, or goes against their predictions before price returns. In a macro-example, after BoJ changed its monetary policy to spur inflation & weaken the Yen in 2012, sellers in Usd/Jpy were pulling their sell orders and changing their holdings according. Price surpassed 124 as it was a reference of the highest value U/J has been. I know a way to predict S/D levels in U/J is to research where to find...
Well , till now i am using only Charts to find out the supply and demand areas. Can you please tell more about the way of how to find the import and export forex orders?
and i dont know much of how to use economic news and incorporate it to the SD trading.Even though if i get a bearish bias for USDJPY how can i know which supply level exactly it will affect. ???
  • #40
  • Apr 21, 2017 12:48pm Apr 21, 2017 12:48pm
i went to a supply demand seminar in my country which was conducted by Online Trading Academy where SAM SEIDEN is also from. The person who talked about the seminar just lectured for an hour and told some rules about supply demand trading method and showed some trades where it has all worked. Then he told that he has lectured about 1/10 of the total trading strategy and if to learn more we should enroll to the OTA classes. He also challenged that this is a patented system and it cant be found any where in internet and its not possible to learn on own. So is that any of it true? Cant we learn it online ?? Or is there any other really hidden methods which we can learn only from their classes?
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