Trend Trading with Fibonacci & RSI

AUD/JPY overview

interesting .. I like fibo.
I'll stay tuned

interesting method using RSI

XAG/USD short term bearish

AUD/CAD critical price level ahead

AUD/NZD completing projected ABC correction.

Lets see how it will behave around 1.0700-1.0750 area. If we see support here, we might have opportunity to go long. If price falls below 1.07, next support area might be around 1.060-1.055. I would abandon bullish bias below 1.055 (200 daily SMA).

USD/CAD update -> OIL is ruling over this pair once again.

EUR/NZD Update: Will range support at 1.52 hold again?

EUR/NZD update -> T1 reached

AUD/JPY update -> at critical support. Lets see if we can get some kind of consolidation, reversal signal around 81-82 area ...

Be aware, this is very risk sentiment correlated pair. If markets get scared in any way, bears will eat this support area for breakfast, no technical support would stop them. We saw the same story in silver... I was thinking shorting it on correction, but markets got frightened and correction turned into full blown V-shape reversal.
For some reason, markets are very nervous now. When major investment banks start public warnings that stock markets are overvalued, you have to be careful. Maybe they just want to legally cover their asses in case of another major financial crisis around the corner or liquidity has gone down and they are trying to buy from sellers who got spooked by their analysis. Either way, risk sentiment is chancing on daily basis now, not very healthy environment to trade highly risk affected pairs.

AUD/NZD update -> pair has finished ABC correction

GBP/NZD update -> pair has broken above 1.8000 (double bottom like formation on daily chart)

GBP/NZD -> maybe not bad place to buy...

AUD/NZD going long...

NZD/USD update -> flag pattern broken to the upside -> possible ACB bullish correction scenario

As you can see from my trading samples, it's very important to only take trades in places that offer relatively high risk : reward ratio. If you are a trader that hate to lose, such trading style may not suit your personality. With RR ratio being 2 and higher, you will inevitable be wrong more often then not. I take comfort in knowing that I can be wrong 70 % of the time, and still be a breakeven trader (over the last 500 trades taken, I was wrong 60 % of the time). If you have to chase 51 % or more win rate because your risk : reward ratio is less then 1, you are more likely to be stressed out and make more mistakes because of that.

Now, you may be one of those iron nerves traders, who is long term profitable with very low RR/high win rate ratio, but majority of us suck at chasing high win rate. I came across DailyFX research which looked through over 40 million real trades and find out that most traders win more often then not, but still lose money https://goo.gl/Lx3vQh Data in their study shows "that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent."


Desire to win is part of human nature. "Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman found out that most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains." "Winning" often is desirable in our daily lives, but not necessarily in trading. Most traders get "wiped out" because they subconsciously translate such seeking pleasure - avoiding pain behavior in risk management when trading (holding their losing positions for too long in hope of price turning around and taking profits to quickly in fear of losing them).



Whole story why most retail traders lose money, basically comes down to these three graphs:

You mixed fartist+Mr.Pip, + some nonsense from elliot, and here you go, you can't trade, and lose money. No algorithm, no system, waist of time. Newbies shouldn't open threads

I'm trading live for 9 years and I'm a member of this forum for 8 years now... So if I'm a newbie in your eyes, let it be so. You're not obligated to read my posts, so just move on.

don't waste your time with trolls Tom, you have a great thread here!
I myself am all into the R:R, always looking for good RR setups that give me 1:3 or better and I don't care for "being right"
Trading is not about "being right", it's about making money.
But to each their own

Keep going Tom!

AUDNZD update -stopped out.

AUD took a hit across the board when RBA's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were published. Market has evaluated BRA's status quo as bearish, AUDNZD was no exception: