Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Is This The End Of The Trump Presidency?
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by Tyler Durden
Apr 12, 2017 11:05 PM


Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,
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On April 4 2017 in the Syrian city of Khan Shaykhun, a city controlled by western-backed terrorists, chemical weapons killed more than eighty civilians. Immediately, local and foreign sources (the White Helmets and Syrian Observatory, respectively, dubiously linked to Al Qaeda groups) blamed the Syrian Arab Army, accusing them of employing chemical agents. In the following forty-eight hours, the mainstream media flooded print media and the airwaves with information that alleged that Assad used chemical weapons. As is known, it is not the first time that the legitimate government of Syria has been accused of attacking its own people with weapons of mass destruction.


In all similar events in the past, it has been later discovered that the chemical agents in question were used by the Al Nusra Front and Al Qaeda terrorists. In 2013, Obama tacitly rejected the argument that the Syrian Army used chemical weapons in Ghouta, deciding not to succumb to internal pressure to bomb Syria in response. Donald Trump required little confirmation before taking the initiative to cross the red line, openly attacking the Syrian army, even though his same intelligence community strongly doubted that the chemical attack took place according to the narrative advanced by the media.


There are several hypotheses regarding what may have happened in Khan Shaykhun. The first one points to a false flag by rebels and terrorists supported by Israeli, British, Saudi and Qatari intelligence. Alternatively, it could have simply been an accident. Assad's forces could have hit a terrorist weapons cache without knowing that it was dedicated to the production and storage of chemical weapons. Another theory offers that foreign intelligence agents may have provided accurate information to the terrorists in Khan Shaykhun about what buildings were going to be targeted by Assad’s air force, thereby allowing them to move chemical weapons into the targeted locations in order to bring about a civilian massacre.


Whatever the case may be, it is unthinkable that Assad and the Syrian army would use chemical agents against their own civilians. There is no rational reason for them to use such weapons which do not guarantee any tactical advantage and which, besides, would incite an obvious, vehement reaction from the international community -- a counterproductive move from any way you look at it. This is not to mention that two days before the accident (?), Trump and Tillerson had publicly opened up to Assad, broaching a Syrian future with the president still in office.

Once again, the use of chemical weapons proved to be of no tactical gain, spelling full-blown political suicide. From whatever perspective one observes the incident; an intentional chemical attack by Syrian forces is not credible and should be therefore ruled out. Furthermore, Russia saw its request for an independent investigation in the Khan Shaykhun chemical incident blocked by almost all nations belonging to the UN council, with the exception of Syria, Bolivia, China and Russia. What do the US and its allies have to hide? We all know the answer to that.


An important factor to consider in order to understand the events surrounding the incident with chemical gases concerns the immediate American response. The bombardment with cruise missile, which caused a dozen deaths and some slight damage to Shayrat Air Base, needed at least a couple of months of preparation. This consideration helps clarify the scope of the chemical attack along with the attendant rationale and motivations.


Notably, over the past two months, Trump has received all kinds of pressure to continue the neocon-inspired aggression against Syria. The main cheerleaders of this attack certainly fall into that category of players that includes the intelligence community, the military-industrial complex, neoconservatives, the Saudis, the Israelis, the Turks and the Qataris.

It is not unthinkable that the chemical attack was an act needed in order to allow a US military response. One must not neglect to consider the very positive outcome of the meeting between Trump and the Saudi prince, the latter of whom is a major supporter of aggression against Syria. The summit between the King of Jordan and the American president the day after the events in Khan Shaykhun ought to be viewed in the same light.

At the same time, other events look more than suspicious in terms of timing and motives, such as the permanent exclusion of Trump adviser Steve Bannon in favor of General H. R. McMaster (appointed by Trump). McMaster is a protégé of General Petraeus, a leading exponent of the interests of the neoconservatives.

This is not to mention the exclusion of Flynn a month ago, another person who for years has advised against aggression against Syria, mainly thinking of the consequences that such a move would entail at the international level.

Much ambiguity also remains when one considers the absence of members of the American intelligence community in the war room during the bombing of Syria on April 6. Rumors suggest that these American agencies would have recommended that Trump not act on the basis of partial or false information regarding the chemical attack in Khan Shaykhun.

Trump, contrary to what he stated during the presidential campaign, has dismissed the advice of his intelligence community, preferring instead to act unilaterally under pressure from McMaster and other neocons in the administration.


The bombardment, involving the use of 59 cruise missiles (23 hit the base, others went missing, according to the Russian ministry of defense), caused little damage to the Shayrat Air Base, thanks to the prompt evacuation of Syrian personnel, and no injuries were reported amongst the Russian contingent. The Pentagon claims to have warned the Russians of their intentions, but it is more likely that there were no alternatives, and that this act was mostly political and at no cost. Rather than reading this as a hypothetical US courtesy to the Russians (and the Syrians, because Moscow immediately warned Damascus), we must consider that a few seconds after the launch of the first cruise missile by the two destroyers in the Mediterranean, Russian forces in the area were already fully aware of the path and destination of the missiles, thereby alerting Damascus. It is also possible that the generals close to Trump advised him to alert Moscow because of the danger of a Russian reaction if hit by US missiles.


Some doubts still remain as to the intentions and purpose of the attacks. In recent days, a hypothesis has emerged implying some sort of connivance between Russia and the United States in these attacks, apparently staged to appease the interventionists of the US deep state. There is no evidence to support this hypothesis, and the relatively limited damage to the Shayrat military airport may rest either with the high defense capabilities of the Syrian and Russians, or to the marked inefficiency of Raytheon’s cruise missiles, rather than any purposeful intention to do limited damage.

In coming days, with more information available, it will be important to analyze what exactly happened to the cruise missiles that did not hit their target. As many know, it is taboo in the United States to criticize the military-industry complex, given the importance and influence it enjoys. In this sense, it is no surprise that in the United States, the press has been talking about the complete success of the attack, with 58 out of 59 missiles apparently being advertised as hitting their targets.


For Trump it may well be the beginning of the end. The intention may have been to make a once-off attack to appease the deep state, lowering in the process the heat stemming from Russiagate, in order to allow for the implementation of national policies in line with the proclaimed America-First doctrine that has thus far been sabotaged by opponents and detractors. These same detractors now applaud Trump for what they see as his first presidential act, which involves killing civilians with missiles.


What Trump does not appear to understand is that he has opened up a Pandora's Box that implicitly encourages foreign intelligence and terrorists in Syria to rely on American help by simply playing the chemical-gas-attack card. Trump seems unaware that he is now under the complete control of the media, the intelligence agencies, Al Qaeda, and the neocons, who are all the time working towards the involvement of the United States in ever more wars, such as with the one in Syria. Trump has intentionally sold out to the deep state in the hope of saving his presidency. However, in so doing, he is doomed to becoming a puppet of the deep state. Now let us speculate for a moment about what may happen in the coming weeks.


In response to US aggression, Russia, Syria and Iran will increase cooperation against terrorists in Syria without any further cooperation with the United States. In this regard, we have already seen the suspension of channels of communication between Russia and the United States. The most likely reason for this is to avoid revealing to the United States the whereabouts of Russian troops in Syria. This hopefully causes huge concern for Washington, as the next American attack on Syria may impact on Russian troops. Regardless, it now seems clear that in the case of a new attack on Syria, there will be a firm and proportionate response from Moscow that could even lead to the sinking of the ships that launched the cruise missiles. It constitutes a dangerous escalation that could involve nuclear superpowers.

Trump is probably betting that Moscow, in the case of another attack on Syria, would not dare attack American ships. Unfortunately for Trump and the rest of the world, his calculations are dead wrong, pushing the world to the brink of disaster in the event of another American bombardment of Syria. If Russia sinks American naval ships, and Trump does not respond, he is done. If he responds, then the world is done. Let us hope that the US does not do stupid shit (an Obama quote).


In case al Qaeda once again uses chemical weapons, Trump will be requested to answer with force, as he has already done. If he refuses to do so, he will be immediately pilloried as Obama was in 2013, thereby committing political suicide.

Trump has already lost his most loyal supporters, who had voted for him to stop US military adventures abroad. By deciding to bomb Syria, he has opened the door to either an early termination of his presidency or for a large-scale conflict. Whatever the case may be, the United States begins a new phase of conflict in the Middle East, in direct contrast to the claims made by Trump throughout the presidential campaign.

It represents a 180-degree reversal in policy that reveals the real intentions of the American presidency, namely continuing the preservation of the American unipolar world, in spite of lacking the necessary operational and military capabilities. After all, Obama resisted for six years the pressure to bomb Syria coming from the extremist wing of the deep state. Trump took only eighty days to voluntarily go along with plans to attack Syria. Whatever the hidden truth of these two events, it is clear that from now on that nothing will be as before.

Comments from Benjaminis: The reason that I have gone the extra mile in reading and posting about these MAJOR WORLD ISSUES because it is just that important to know and so now really it is time for some sleep in order to prepare to be online and start around 6:00 AM when I start by seeing what happened overnight on CNBC.

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outs...-of-affluence#

The Influence of Affluence

By Marc Faber
Excerpted from the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report for April 2017

For as wealth is power, so all power will infallibly draw wealth to itself by some means or other.
Edmund Burke (1780)

Of great riches there is no real use, except it be in the distribution.
Francis Bacon (De Dignitate et Augmentis Scientiarum, 1623)

That mankind as a whole shall become richer does not, of necessity involve an increase in human welfare.
John Bates Clark

Riches: The saving of many in the hands of one.
Eugene V. Debs

Those persons who comprise the independent classes are dependent upon two things: the industry of their fellow creatures; and injustice, which enables them to command it.
Based on John Gray (A Lecture on Human Happiness, 1825)

No rich man is ugly.
Zsa Zsa Gabor

Introduction
The other day, I was interviewedby CNBC. One of the participants on their panel asked me whether I believed I was providing a service to investors by warning them that stocks could decline by between 20% and 40%, or even more. He further questioned my morality in dissuading investors from buying stocks that were being touted as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make money following their March 2009 lows. Aside from the inaccuracy of the interviewers statement that I had been keeping investors out of the market, I was taken aback by the notion of a CNBC employee talking about morality.

Every year, I attend several conferences and Hillary Clinton about ethical behavior, Trump about modesty and unpretentiousness, Bernanke and Yellen about honest money, and mobster Whitey Bulger about mercy. (Federal prosecutors indicted Bulger for 19 murders.) Still, the question prompted me subsequently to contemplate whether periods of high monetary inflation (printing money) make people wealthier in real terms. Last month, I explained that it is an irrefutable fact that inflation-adjusted millennials earn less, and have less wealth, than the baby boomers had at the same age. (See Table 1 for easy reference.)

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Also, it is true that US household wealth is at an all-time high certainly in nominal terms (see Figure 1). (As an aside, Ed Yardeni publishes very useful figures about US and global Flow of Funds.)

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But, as I have explained in the past, the distribution of wealth has become more unequal, with the 0.1% (the super-wealthy) doing extremely well, while the median households or asset owners wealth has declined by close to 40% in real terms (adjusted by the CPI) from its peak in 2007 (see Figure 2). I now wish to make some further observations about the increase in household wealth, in both nominal and real terms, of the 0.1%.

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The Wealth Illusion
Say I own a nice property in Beverly Hills, Newport Beach or Palm Beach. I bought the property 15 years ago for US$1 million. Its now worth US$10 million. Over the same period, the CPI is up by 25%. Therefore, adjusted for inflation, my house has appreciated by 75%, correct? Not so fast. First of all, the cost-of-living increase over that period of time has been far greater than the CPI indicates (and includes taxes, home maintenance costs, school fees for my children, salaries of my housekeepers that is, unless Im a member of Congress who employs illegals).

So, the real wealth increase, even measured by an index of consumption-related expenditures, may be far lower than that which is deflated by the official CPI.

Furthermore, let us assume that I decide to sell my US$10 million house in Beverly Hills with the intention of buying another house in Palm Beach, Newport Beach, San Francisco, or an equivalent location. What will I pay for that house? I suppose it will be something like the inflated price at which Im selling my existing home. I invite a statistician to explain to me what is a more appropriate index against which to measure the price of my house: the CPI, or an index of property values in an equivalent location?

Measured against the CPI, my house has appreciated; however, measured against a property price index it may have gone up somewhat more, or somewhat less, than the index, depending on how the prices of other homes comparable to my house have moved in the same location. Now, someone might argue that, regardless, I would have done very well compared to the median US household and the 50% of Americans who have no assets at all. That argument is correct.

In an asset inflationary environment, asset holders do far better than people who dont own any assets. (The same is true in a consumer price inflationary environment such as we had in the 1970s.) But my point is that, unless, after selling my US$10 million house, I move to an area that has appreciated only very little or has even gone down in price, in reality I have no net wealth gain. I concede that I could move to Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, Bahia, New Orleans, Bali, Pattaya, Maputo, or a similar location, and purchase a house equivalent to the Beverly Hills house that Ive just sold, but for a fraction of the price. In some places, I might even improve my standard of living meaningfully. But in other locations, the environment may not be to my liking at all. The point I wish to make is that my wealth increase as represented by the Beverly Hills house is largely illusionary, unless I sell that expensive property and move to a far less expensive area. The same would be true of an investment in the stock market. In the 1970s, I could buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average for less than 1,000. Now, I need to pay 21,000 for one Dow Jones, which is 21-times what I would have paid in the seventies (see Figure 3). Over the same period of time, US household wealth has increased by about the same amount (see Figure 1).

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Naturally, the total return of the stock market (including reinvestment of dividends) over the same period was far higher. The Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index appreciated more than 100-fold between 1970 and 2017 (see Figure 4). (The Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index is an all-inclusive measure composed of all US equity securities with readily available prices.) The total returns of other indices such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are of a similar magnitude, whereby value outperformed growth over the entire period.

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There are several reasons why household wealth increased far less than the total return of the stock market. The main component of household wealth is pension fund assets (approximately US$22 trillion). Since pension funds hold a diversified portfolio of assets consisting of stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, alternative investments, etc., they underperformed the total return of a stock portfolio. Households also have large real estate holdings in the form of owner-occupied homes. Owner-occupied homes are a cash-flow negative asset (taxes, maintenance costs, mortgage payments, etc.). The value of these (cash-flow negative) homes has appreciated since 1970; however, they have appreciated (with few exceptions) far less than have stocks whose dividends were reinvested. The same goes for households holdings of bonds and cash, and their own businesses. The value of households direct ownership of equities increased at about the same rate as household wealth, but at a far lower rate than the total return of equities because households tended to be net sellers of equities. I assume that households felt increasingly comfortable holding the bulk of their wealth in pension fund assets and, therefore, reduced their direct ownership of equities.

Still, there is no question that US household wealth has increased significantly since the 1970s (see Figure 1). But, can we say that the record US$89 trillion wealth of the household sector is an indication of how well the economy is performing? Furthermore, can we conclude that when a part of this household wealth is liquidated, a huge consumption and economic boom will follow? The answer to the first question is simple. Most of the increase in household wealth accrued to a tiny percentage of the population (see Figure 2). In fact, following the Trump rally, the top 0.1% of households own more than the bottom 90%.

Also, as I explained above, the increase in value of my Beverly Hills house is of limited utility if I wish to continue living in an equivalent house in an equivalent area somewhere else. We then need to consider the increase in the US population, which in 1970 was 205 million and is now 318 million.

Therefore, a better indication of American wealth than total household wealth would be per-capita wealth. Lastly, as I explained above, the largest component of US household wealth is pension fund reserves, currently valued at US$22 trillion. But there are some question marks over these assets and whether they are really worth this amount. Last October, my friend Fred Sheehan (frederick.sheehan@verizon. net) explained just how underfunded pension funds were, citing (among other examples) the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Funded Ratios (see Table 2).

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In this respect, its interesting to note that The New York Daily News recently carried an article about the Teamster Local 707s pension fund (see February 26, 2017), which has encountered serious financial problems. According to the Daily News, one trucker reported: Its a nightmare, it has just devastated all of our lives. Ive gone from having $48,000 a year to less than half that. Again according to the Daily News, another Teamster pensioner, Narvaez, explained that:
...like 4,000 other retired Teamster truckers, [he] got a letter from Local 707 in February of last year. It said monthly pensions had to be slashed by more than a third. It was an emergency move to try to keep the dying fund solvent. That dropped Narvaez from nearly $3,500 to about $2,000.

The stopgap measure didnt work and after years of dangling over the precipice, Local 707s pension fund fell off the financial cliff this month. With no money left, it turned to Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., a government insurance company that covers pensions.

Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. picked up Local 707s retiree payouts but the maximum benefit it gives a year is roughly $12,000, for workers who racked up at least 30 years. For those with less time on the job, the payouts are smaller.

Narvaez now gets $1,170 a month before taxes. Ex-trucker Edward Hernandez, 67, went from $2,422 a month to $1,465 last year. As of this month, his gross check is $902. After federal taxes, its $721 but he still has to pay state and city taxes.

We have guys on Long Island who are losing their houses, the taxes are so high out there, Hernandez said. Milton Acosta, 75, was a dockworker in Local 707. He retired at age 62, figuring his union pension of $2,300, coupled with his Social Security, would keep him and his wife afloat. Now his pension is $760 a month after taxes, he said.

As heartbreaking as their stories are, they are not new to Thomas Nyhan, executive director and general counsel of the Central States Pension Fund.

The same crisis now hitting Local 707 has been stewing among numerous Teamster locals around the country for the past decade, he said, and that includes in upstate New York. The trucking industry almost uniformly organized by Teamsters has suffered enormous financial losses in its pension and welfare funds due to a crippling combination of deregulation and stock market crashes, Nyhan said.

This is a quiet crisis, but its very real. There are currently 200 other plans on track for insolvency thats going to affect anywhere from 1.5 to 2 million people, said Nyhan. The prognosis is bleak minus some new legislative help. And its not just private-sector industries that are suffering, he added.
Municipal and state plans are the next to go down thats a pension tsunami thats coming, he said. In many states, those defined benefit plans are seriously underfunded and at the end of the day, math trumps the statutes. [Emphasis added in each instance.]

(As an aside, Illinois is facing the worst pension crisis of any US state, with unfunded obligations totalling US$130 billion, according to the states Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. That amounts to about US$10,000 in debt for each resident.)

I urge my readers to peruse once again Fred Sheehans report, entitled Public Pension Recipients: Start Saving. You Are on Your Own, in the October 2016 GBD report. I explained at the time that the shocking funding level and its deterioration (see Table 2), about which Sheehan writes, is also evident in the corporate sector and in Europe. So, whereas prior to the 2008/2009 crisis S&P 1500 companies were fully funded, today funding has dropped below 80% (see Figure 7 of the October 2016 GBD report). I also noted that I found the deteriorating funding levels of pension funds remarkable because, post-March 2009 (S&P 500 at 666), stocks around the world rebounded strongly and many markets (including the US stock market) made new highs. Furthermore, government bonds were rallying strongly after 2006 as interest rates continued to decline. My point was that if, despite truly mouth-watering returns of financial assets over the last ten years, unfunded liabilities have increased, what will happen once these returns diminish or disappear completely? After all, its almost certain that the returns of pension funds (as well as of other financial institutions) will diminish given the current level of interest rates and the lofty US stock market valuations (see Figures 12 and 13 in the March 2017 GBD report).


The Road to Perdition
The next time an economist tells you that the US economy is rock solid because household wealth keeps going up and is now almost US$93 trillion (following the Trump rally), keep in mind that this wealth is unevenly distributed (see Figure 2) and that the US$22 trillion in the form of pension funds is completely inadequate to meet those funds obligations to pensioners. Either contributions will have to increase massively, or benefits will have to be cut, as we have seen in the case of the Teamster Local 707s pension fund. I should also like my readers to reflect on the hardships that have to be endured by retirees if their benefits are cut by more than 50%, as we have seen in the examples quoted above by the Daily News. Furthermore, if, as Thomas Nyhan states, there is a quiet but very real crisis thats going to affect anywhere from 1.5 to 2 million people (probably far more than that number nationwide), consider what the impact on consumption and the US economy will be.


There is another point I need to explain. Let us assume that I belong to the 0.1% and that I have assets of US$100 million. Because of the Trump rally, I make a profit of US$5 million within a month. Will it change my consumption? Maybe at the margin (the trickle-down effect), but very little overall, compared to a thousand lower middle-class people suddenly making an additional US$1,000 each. In that case, its likely that the 1,000 people who enjoy a sudden monetary windfall of US$1,000 will spend most of it. Therefore, if wealth is concentrated in the hands of very few people, as it is now, the economic impact of household wealth rising is minimal. In other words, the level of household wealth is a very poor indicator of how the economy is really performing. This is especially true in a money-printing environment.


In this context, I need to clarify another matter. Most economists have argued that inflation is low and growth is anaemic because the velocity of money has been declining since the late 1990s (see Figure 5). These economists will argue that when the velocity of money picks up, inflation and growth will accelerate.

But how can velocity accelerate? Let us go back to Figure 2. The top 0.1% of asset holders (the super-rich) will unlikely spend their wealth if they liquidate some assets. Lets say that Warren Buffett makes another US$1 billion because of the Trump rally. Will he spend that money? Its unlikely. He might reduce his equity exposure and build up his cash holdings or buy some other assets, but his billion- dollar capital gain isnt going to cause him to go out and buy another 50 tailor-made suits, neckties and sets of silk pajamas. In other words, the Fed and other central banks can further increase their balance sheets, which will boost asset prices still higher. However, it will only worsen the wealth inequality because only the existing asset holders will benefit, and it will further deflate the velocity of money (see Figure 5). (In fact, just how little impact the rising US stock market has had on the economy is evident from the TDn2Ks Restaurant Industry Snapshot, which announced that restaurant same-store sales fell 3.7 percent in February, with traffic declining 5.0 percent.... Fine dining and upscale casual were the strongest segments in February. Fine dining was the only segment up overall. But please note that fine dining only accounts for 5% of restaurant sales. The report added: Consumers are spending, but they are being battered by rising inflation.)

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There are, however, three ways in which the velocity of money could be increased. A complete collapse of asset markets would bring about deflation and improve the affordability of goods, services and assets for the median household certainly relative to the 0.1%. In this scenario, the velocity of money will increase, but I very much doubt that the increase in velocity would bring about stronger growth and higher inflation.

A massive dose of helicopter money dropped on the 50% of Americans who are struggling and have no assets would probably be the most potent tool for boosting the velocity of money, inflation and economic growth that is, temporarily. I say probably and temporarily because it is far from certain that this intervention would improve real economic activity and real growth. Also, Helicopter Money One would have to be followed by Helicopter Money Two, and so on, which would have numerous very negative consequences (a collapse in the dollar, very high consumer price inflation rates, further increase in wealth inequality, etc.). The third option for boosting the velocity of money would be to expropriate a significant share of the wealth of the top 0.1% of wealth owners and distribute it to the 50% who are the lowest-income recipients. Again, this would boost consumption only temporarily and it would be a complete disaster for the overall economy.

Disturbingly, this is what will be the ultimate outcome unless an authoritarian dictator seizes power, in which case the outcome could be even worse.
Let me explain. Should the economy weaken and enter another recession (which is inevitable, sooner or later), QE4 will be a given. The result of QE4 would be more of the same: rising wealth inequality as asset prices continue to increase (this time, very selectively) whereby the median household is left further behind. Therefore, the next step by the interventionists will be possibly simultaneously with QE4 helicopter money. However, make no mistake.

Helicopter money whose objective would be to kick-start the economy would be almost instantly captured by the powerful corporate sector and the asset owners, because the increased consumption would increase consumer prices and boost corporate profits. In other words, unless the interventionists with their fiscal and monetary policies engineer an asset price collapse (about the last thing they will do intentionally), the top 0.1% will continue to gain at the expense of just about everybody else. Dont misunderstand me. I am not blaming the 0.1% for snatching an increased share of the income and wealth pie. They were in a better position and more able to take advantage of globalisation and monetary inflation than the vast majority of Americans. Moreover, their wealth allowed them to manipulate governments, their agencies, the lawmakers and regulators, etc. (especially central banks and treasury departments) for implementing policies that would greatly benefit them. Thus, their share of the wealth and income pie exploded (see Figures 2 and 6).

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazona.../170412-06.png

I admit that the statistics compiled by Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez should be taken with a grain of salt, but the expansion of CEOs salaries relative to the salaries of workers does support the fact that the 0.1% have done very well compared to workers (see Figure 7). According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, CEOs of the largest US companies now earn more than 300 times what workers earn, compared to CEO salaries of less than 30 times what workers earned in the 1970s. (The Bureau of Economic Analysis computes CEO annual compensation by using the option realised compensation series, which includes salary, bonus, restricted stock grants, options exercised, and long-term incentive payouts for CEOs at the top 350 US firms ranked by sales.)

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Above, I mentioned that wealthy people, including the CEOs of major companies, were in a better position and more skillful at taking advantage of globalization and monetary inflation than the vast majority of Americans. Monetary inflation, the secular decline of interest rates after 1981, the process of outsourcing, clever lobbying, etc. all contributed to rising corporate profits, which in turn allowed executives to boost their compensation without any objection from shareholders.

In fact, we can see that CEOs compensation increases mirror the increase in the S&P 500 (see Figure 8). I want to stress that I have no idea whether CEOs should earn 30 times more than workers or 500 times more. (I also earn more than 500 times the salaries of my housekeepers in Chiang Mai, which difference can be partly explained by them earning a Thai local salary whereas I have an international income.) The fact is that, in a market economy, the market will determine the price of CEOs and of labour. But, as I said above, I suppose that wealthy people and corporate leaders (especially in the financial sector) were in a position to manipulate the system, which enabled them to heist a disproportionally large share of the economic pie. When money printing began to accelerate in and after the late 1990s, the financial sector managed to raid almost all the central banks newly printed money and some more ... with impunity. (According to the organisation Americans for Financial Reform, in the 201516 election cycle, Wall Street banks and financial interests reported spending over $2.0 billion to influence decision- making in Washington. That total of officially reported expenditures on campaign contributions and lobbying comes to more than $2.7 million a day. It also works out to over $3.7 million per member of Congress.

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We have a system in place that is based on fiscal and monetary policies, and laws and regulations, that favour the corporate elite, the largest corporations, the captains of finance, and the 0.1% in general, because they are the asset holders. This moneyed class will not give up its privileges voluntarily. The privileged class will do everything in their power to keep these favourable conditions in place, which would include money printing in one or another form if there is a recession or if asset markets decline meaningfully (say, to the February 2016 low of 1,810 for the S&P 500). As I said, Im not discussing these issues because I have some rancour about these conditions from which I actually profiteered greatly. I am discussing them because I believe that an unstable system in which the majority of people lose out to the privileged few is simply not sustainable and will end either with a Bernie Sanders-type socialist gaining power or with the establishment of a dictatorship. Democracies promised a level playing field in society, but that certainly does not seem to be in place nowadays. I suspect that we have never yet had a level playing field, but I feel that we are reaching a tipping point where something is likely to give, and I am afraid that this something could be the inflated asset markets.


[The letter continues with Investment Observations."]
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Good Morning Everyone

In Montreal it is 6:11 AM Eastern Standard Time as I start this post. That is the same time that it is in New York.

I have been doing a lot of thinking in the last 24 hours of the most effective and simplest way to teach people how to become successful in their trading of Forex.

I will repeat some of what KeepCalmfx posted in the summary of why and what we teach. Then I will have a request to make of everyone interested in moving forward in a more efficient manner.

More or less a year ago, after testing a few methods, following some successful traders, doing a few courses I had the belief that you can be a consistent profitable trader only following price action on the charts. Then after following a brilliant trader I realized that you have to know what is going on out there, how the news effect different currency pairs, especially the news about the pairs you traded. Then I came across Benjamins posts.

I honestly thought this guy was mad posting so much material to read, to go through and to absorb. It was like another language I could not understand. Then I took a big loss due to a certain event that was not even on the FF Calendar but Benjamin explained what it was in one of his posts and it made sense.

I then made a decision that I must learn about these economic events and how the different events have an effect on the money flow and I might as well follow this trader that seems to know a great deal about what is going on out there and how everything effects each other.

I made a promise to myself that I will for 3 months do my best to comprehend what Benjamin is teaching and explaining and to be open minded. I was lucky, when I started middle December to follow his thread I think there was like 20 pages to catch up on. It was also the start of my 3 week break, so everything worked out perfectly. I took a week to read everything and then started trading on my $50 000 demo account.

My 1st month I made 20%, not knowing actually what I was doing, think it was a bit of luck as well.
My 2nd month I lost that 20% profit, I went through some physiological issues, I had some bad habits to un learn. My 3rd month I worked on a few things I knew I had to work on before I could proceed to follow the way Benjamin teaches. Like, Jumping the gun, Overtrading, Fear of missing out, but buy learning on a $50 000 Demo account this has helped me to start trading without fear, greed and ego.

I had to learn patience and to get rid of the feeling of wanting to trade each day. I set some goals for myself, like not to trade for 1 week, just to observe the markets and in March there was big news events, so I forced myself to sit on my hands, and to trade less. I also forced myself to go through all of the explanations Benjamin has posted. To recap. Then I started +/-2 weeks ago to slowly easing back into trading.

When my original account was in less than the $50 000 I started with, I thought I would start fresh with a new demo account, my very first trades went well, and then I took those losses. I decided that I will go back to my original Demo account that was at that stage less than the $50 000 I started with.

I also now had access to Benjamins demo account, so I could see where he enters and exit which was of a big help to even understand better.

Looking back at the last few months, it was very hard work so far. I still have a lot to learn from Benjamin, but I am truly thankful to all of the hours you have put into this thread explaining over and over again. If I could only learn/understand one more thing each day while following this thread then I am making progress.

I agree with Roger, lets not take note of trolls and push on with this thread until the website goes life. This thread has helped me a lot and I am sure it is helping many other's.

Comments from Benjaminis: I want to start my comments here by congratulating KeepCalmfx for the great DISCIPLINE and the effort that was put in to arrive at the results achieved. As I explained yesterday in some of my posts the reason that I posted so much material here during the course of the Forex trading day was to stay aware of the events or important news that was out there before others realized them so that I would have an EDGE over others and understand what was causing the movements in the markets. I have some very strong ideas this morning as I have said that I want to share here and ask for suggestions and recommendations in order to streamline the method of teaching.

I will ask KeepCalmfx time permitting to offer thoughts on this subject based on making the teaching more effective and less time consuming as in the reading of all the material that I post everyday. Please read the Marc Faber article before this post because it makes it so clear why things are in such a difficult state in the USA and why President Trump was elected. That may well be the reason that major changes will happen in France and Germany politically.

Everyone reading this thread especially those that have subscribed should without FEAR of my taking anything personally TELL me what you think and what will make it easier for you to improve your Forex trading. There can be no doubt that if you are prepared as KeepCalmfx was and is to learn and you have the skills necessary than you have a great future ahead of you financially.

I await any and all feedback so I can FOCUS in on how to make my information easier to digest and use.

Good morning Benjamin

I have a question as to how the Trade Plans are identified, and was wandering if it is it linked to the "reality". I have searched this thread, but could not find a mention, other than using the Dow to identify daily the conditions of risk-on/risk-off. I also looked to the longer term charts of the Dow; currently in a retracement leg of an upward trend.

rgds, Roger

There are reasons why Trade Plans are developed. It starts with determining the Trend. We know the saying that "The Trend Is Your Friend"

When I first started trading Real Funds on March 9, 2006 my only Trade Plan was EUR/USD LONG. I made substantial profits by only trading this currency pair. After 2007 when EUR/USD changed direction I turned my FOCUS to going SHORT USD/JPY and again I had great success. I NEVER TRADED against the Trend so once it reached the TOP of the range then I sold it.

Now since I KNOW with 100% certainty that the Dow 30 (US 30) will go down along with the SPX500 then they become the BEST TWO TRADE PLANS that we have.

Then we have the 90% or better CORRELATION between RISK OFF and USD/JPY so it is our Third Trade Plan.

As for Gold Long and Silver Long the TREND IS UP !!!

I hope this answers your questions.


Benjaminis

You can try this for awhile and let me know how it goes. Here is the complete text of what you wrote.

Quoting BenjaminIs
{quote} KeepCalmfx Thank you for your reply. I am going to leave open my 6 positions as is and I will explain why. We have had many things happen in the last 24 hours. I could have taken my profits as could of yourself. So we can have another element added to our Forex trading STRATEGY only when we trade in times as we have now. Let us develop a CODE. The CODE is 1 to 10. Now we are definitely at CODE 10 so at CODE 10 we try to stay in CASH however since we are at CODE 10 instead of say CODE 5 when we took our Forex trades then I suggest that we...
Hi Benjamin, I like the code idea to lock in profit of minimum $250.

With the US30 and SPX500, what if we had a 50 units, instead of a 100 units.
Because of the volatility of these 2 pairs. I know you can make a lot of money because it can move fast in hours, but if you keep to your $1000 stop loss, you can just as easily been stopped out. Just an suggestion.

https://mises.org/library/world-acco...obalist-agenda

The Austrian

Home | Mises Library | The World According to Trump: The Anti-Globalist Agenda
The World According to Trump: The Anti-Globalist Agenda

1. https://mises.org/sites/default/file...?itok=9kra0qYN

Tags Global Economy
16 hours agoMarcia Christoff-Kurapovna

When Alexis de Tocqueville set forth his observations on American democracy, he began his story with a description of township government. “It is man,” he said “who makes monarchies and establishes republics, but the township seems to come directly from the hand of God.” The oft-revered, sometimes maligned Frenchman’s instincts were sound on this point: American political institutions were harvested from the ground up, from local communities; all of American life, religious institutions, and social institutions were organized on a regional and — if one must use this unappealing term — populist basis.

This made for a political culture that may not have appealed to the social prejudices of foreign observers more used to the corrupt glamour of heavily centralized states.

But the diverse American patchwork of regional, localized, and populist traditions cemented in place the blueprint of what would emerge as the uncanny nature of the American republic, one unlike history had ever seen: the parochial at the foundation of the imperial; the isolated town hall as the basis of the world’s mightiest and most far-flung state. In short, the industrious and free experimental country that was, in effect, preprogrammed to be “globalist” in scope and scale was by nature a country viscerally repulsed by the idea of the statist superstructure.


It is thus that the appeal of Donald Trump, in his graceless way, has tapped into this core of the American character. His electoral victory represents not so much a movement as it does a revival; a reawakening of the energetic ideal of local power, regional power, sovereign power against ghoulish One-World omnipotence.


What Is Globalism?
To analyze what this “globalist” phenomenon is that Trump has made the centerpiece of his wrath, one must first define globalism as a phenomenon. In general, globalism stands for the stateless State; for centralized power without a center — without a pivotal figure of responsibility or moral authority — made up of floating and interchangeable parts everywhere and nowhere at once. It is a network of central banks, international political and monetary institutions like the United Nations, the IMF, the World Bank; of academic conformity, media conformity and cultural conformity spread thick and impenetrable.


Trump’s stance is therefore nothing short of revolutionary. While he wobbles on many of his most outspoken policy positions — whether NATO, Israel, or Russia — there are three positions the new president announced that, somewhat ironically, are the most significant to his anti-global agenda and yet which have received the least attention in the media.

The first was his statement shortly after the election that the United States would no longer engage in “reckless interventionism.” The second was his repeated skepticism of the Federal Reserve and his being one of the few political leaders to speak out against the dangers of a “bubble” economy. Third, and most importantly, is his remark that the nation-state must return as a force in world affairs — a statement no less a philosophical than a political manifesto.

Where these ideas have most caught on is where they are needed most: in Europe, where the mood is changing as a result of Trump’s and where his anti-globalist message has hit the hardest and will have the most lasting impact.

Trumpism in Europe
“Fake elites create their own realities” — so said the billionaire businessman turned politician with a heartfelt streak of the populist and an occasional motor-mouth to get him into hot water. He transformed an entire political landscape while campaigning for the rights of the domestic worker versus global labor, against the EU, against international interventionism and for strongly vetted immigration as part of a maverick agenda to shake up and stay aloof of the post-war international system.


Yet this is not Trump, but rather his wealthier Swiss counterpart — Christoph Blocher —who anticipated the new American president by more than a decade. Blocher, who is now vice president of the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) and its former head through 2007, rose, Tillerson-like, from lowly student trainee to CEO of the Swiss plastics maker EMS Chemie. He is the best example of the anti-globalist, Trump spirit that is also spreading throughout Europe.


“People feel powerless against those who rule them, and for them, Trump is a release valve,” Blocher said in an interview after the November elections in the US. “The unexpected result ... should give pause to those who are in power around the world.”


This coming year, the Netherlands, France, and Germany — and possibly Italy — will hold elections in which debate is likely to be driven by populist parties over issues including immigration. In Switzerland, Blocher has presided over certain campaigns that invited EU wrath for their severity. These included the 2009 Swiss referendum against building of minarets on mosques, which captured 57.5 percent of the national vote; the initiative to expel foreign criminals, garnering 52.3 percent, and the Stop Mass Immigration Initiative, which passed at 50.3 percent.


Blocher is one among many anti-globalist Europeans who have taken the stage in the past several years, a spotlight that is joined by the likes of Marie Le Pen of France, Geert Wilders of the Netherlands, the rise of the ‘Alternative for Germany’ party; Viktor Orban of Hungary, not to mention the Brexit vote itself.

Essentially, the EU experiment is over because it was never wished for in the first place and Trump is a kind of transatlantic spiritual horseman to hasten in the apocalypse.

It has been a long time coming: just over a decade ago, the French voted down the European Constitution Treaty, which was supposed to replace existing EU treaties and institute key changes such as the appointment of an EU foreign minister. This was followed by an even stronger “No” in the Netherlands three days later. These “No” votes succeeded where the Danish 1992 “No” to the Maastricht Treaty and the Irish 2000 “No” to the Treaty of Nice had failed, forcing EU leaders to come up with a new reform treaty, the Lisbon Treaty.


Europe never learned from those lessons, but Trump did: the Brexit referendum of last July emphasized a key reality of twenty-first-century politics, that the divide is not so much Left versus Right but one of globalists versus localists.


On the one hand are the global financial authorities, the EU, the banks and big business and many pro free-trade economists; on the other a strange combination of radical leftists opposed to austerity and ‘neoliberalism’ (however defined), as well as nationalists and conservatives. The difference these days is that the former also go in for utopian ideals, whether it’s the euro or immigration, because they ignore the social implications of trendy group-think and think only in terms of economics not history.


Part of the problem is that Europhiles often confuse the EU with the original post-war European project, which was based on the concepts of peace, harmony, and social justice. In the wake of World War II and the Holocaust, the European project set out to build a united continent. On the eve of the euro launch in January 1999, Germany’s finance minister Oskar Lafontaine poetically spoke of “the vision of a united Europe, to be reached through the gradual convergence of living standards, the deepening of democracy, and the flowering of a truly European culture.”


Instead, Europe has been transported light years from this utopian vision. After several years of austerity, the Eurozone crisis has escalated into a social catastrophe.

The cost has been borne out in terms of jobs, wages, economic growth, and blighted lives. Currently, there are almost 21 million unemployed people in the EU.

For its part, the Maastricht criteria were intended to facilitate the convergence toward the euro and, beyond this, to ever closer union among members. In order to qualify for the euro currency, both Greece and Italy turned to the likes of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and other banks. The banks advised them to mask debts using derivatives. The rest, as they say, is history.


The End of an Era?
As the London Spectator recently observed, Trump’s attitude to Europe is nothing short of revolutionary. With a few words in Trump Tower, he seems to have torn up decades of US State Department policy. “People want their own identity,” he says, “so if you ask me, others, I believe others will leave.” He believes, as has been mentioned, in nation-states, and he does not see the EU as representative of the continent. In fact, he says, it is “basically
a vehicle for Germany.”


It’s hard to overstate the effect of these words on the EU. The whole project of the European Union was always nurtured with American backing: since the Marshall Plan, US policy has been to consolidate Europe’s strength. America used trade and NATO to make the continent a bulwark against the East. Often, this meant putting off or sacrificing America’s short-term economic gains in the interests of security and world peace.


Trump has no time for that. He believes that the world has changed, and he wants better deals for America now, and Europe — a real set of allies — is paying attention.

Comments from Benjaminis: These are the type of analysis that needs to be digested. This gives us the reasons why changes are happening. You will rarely see this in the Main Street Media and now it becomes clearer why that is. I have knowledge of all these resources since I have been locating them for over 15 years at least. By placing them in front of your eyes it lets you distinguish between FALSE PERCEPTIONS and REALITY. You can also call REALITY "KNOWLEDGE"

Good Day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Here are the charts

Hi Benjamin, thank you, will do.

1. Post #2,792
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Apr 6, 2017 3:25am Apr 6, 2017 3:25am

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar496005_1.gif KeepCalmfx
2. | Joined Oct 2016 | Status: Member | 428 Posts

Cleanup Report: Post #2,792 by KeepCalmfx

Quoting Surgefx



Hi Surgefx

Welcome, did you get your trading station platform to start with your login details?

INSTRUCTIONS ON HOW TO OPEN $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account FXCM UK - Thank You KeepCalmfx
Please go to Post 2792 - Also 2794 -Thank You

 

1. Post #2,794
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Edited at 5:02am Apr 6, 2017 4:29am | Edited at 5:02am

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar496005_1.gif KeepCalmfx
2. | Joined Oct 2016 | Status: Member | 428 Posts

Cleanup Report: Post #2,794 by KeepCalmfx






Please try the following

1. Go to link https://www.fxcm.com/uk/platforms/
2. Click op Platforms
3. Click on trading station
4. Scroll down to "try me" and click on it.
5. Complete your details, put in fake contact details - no one will call you. Remove the tick at "Email me free educational trading.. "
6. On the next screen your login details will be displayed and you will receive and email.
7. Try to log in your trading station platform with new log in details - copy and paste both, for in case you press wrong digit when entering manually.

I hope this works
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1491466800 https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1491466808 https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1491466875














Thank You very much KeepCalmfx

You have invested much of your time here and you have learned how to trade Forex and be successful. As I have same since I started the thread on December 3, 2016 the KEY to SUCCESS was a combination of many things. First of course is the Forex Trader.

However for that to happen as I had asked there was an investment required. That investment was at least one hour a day of your time. Doing that without finding excuses not to do it shows DISCIPLINE. Of course without the DESIRE to learn DISCIPLINE will not follow.

Then we come to the Mentor and the student. The Teacher is only as good as the Students and if the Students cannot also help the Teacher to learn then there is no communication between the two.

That is why I wanted to have Forex Retail Traders interested in doing things differently with an open mind was to try to post here with questions and their comments. This has happened and has been positive.

I do not intend to trade today and tomorrow I will trade and run an open session live so that I can explain the unique characteristics of trading NFP day.

I have already done that a few times and what you will see and learn is how things change as the MONEY FLOWS around. Then you most likely will se things change around to a different direction and in the middle of all this we have MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS in Florida between China and the USA.


Thanks everyone for your interest and participation.


Benjaminis









https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1491487243 https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1491487260 https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1491487341 https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1491487349
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1491487357




I Shorted one position of 100 units of US 30 for $505 US Dollars in profits and my balance now all in cash is $69,030.75 US Dollars.

I would ask KeepCalmfx to do a SCREENSHOT on Friday.

I might post later today however if I do not you can still post your questions. Now heading to 40% ROI and now at 38%.

I just might get to 50% for 60 days of Forex trading.

We will see. Please join us tomorrow for the exciting Non Farm Payroll Day !!!

1. Post #2,797
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Apr 6, 2017 7:23am Apr 6, 2017 7:23am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,296 Posts | Online Now

Cleanup Report: Post #2,797 by BenjaminIs

Thank You very much KeepCalmfx

You have invested much of your time here and you have learned how to trade Forex and be successful. As I have same since I started the thread on December 3, 2016 the KEY to SUCCESS was a combination of many things. First of course is the Forex Trader.

However for that to happen as I had asked there was an investment required. That investment was at least one hour a day of your time. Doing that without finding excuses not to do it shows DISCIPLINE. Of course without the DESIRE to learn DISCIPLINE will not follow.

Then we come to the Mentor and the student. The Teacher is only as good as the Students and if the Students cannot also help the Teacher to learn then there is no communication between the two.

That is why I wanted to have Forex Retail Traders interested in doing things differently with an open mind was to try to post here with questions and their comments. This has happened and has been positive.

I do not intend to trade today and tomorrow I will trade and run an open session live so that I can explain the unique characteristics of trading NFP day.

I have already done that a few times and what you will see and learn is how things change as the MONEY FLOWS around. Then you most likely will se things change around to a different direction and in the middle of all this we have MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS in Florida between China and the USA.


Thanks everyone for your interest and participation.


Benjaminis

1. Post #2,805
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Edited at 9:04am Apr 7, 2017 7:07am | Edited at 9:04am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,297 Posts | Online Now

Cleanup Report: Post #2,805 by BenjaminIs

Good Forex Day Ladies and Gentleman

Please come back to this post as I will keep updating it during the morning. We have a very unique situation this morning.

Leading the way is GEOPOLITICAL because of the following factors.

(1) The strike by the USA on Syria.
(2) The early reaction by Russia calling for an emergency hearing at the UN.
(3) The meeting this morning with China
(4) The effect of the strike on China and how North Korea will react.

Then we have Non Farm Payroll at 8:30 AM Eastern Standard Time.

We also have the vote for the next Supreme Court Justice scheduled for 11:30 AM today.

I will start of by linking the Finviz 5 minute chart of US 30 (Dow 30)

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

Look at how it reacted after the Airstrike occurred around 10 PM Eastern Standard Time and it's reaction as of now.

These charts will update as we go through the morning based on FACTS (NFP) and reactions to this along with the GEOPOLITICAL issues and that is why we also keep a close eye on US Dollar Index and Gold.

Here is the 5 minute chart on the US Dollar Index and you can see that MONEY FLOWED into the US Dollar Index.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

Now we turn to Gold and the 5 minute chart on Gold.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

Notice how both Gold and the US Dollar Index went up at the same time and this is because at times like this the immediate HUMAN REACTION is for safety of Assets so the strength goes to the present Reserve Currency of the World , the US Dollar and into Gold.

Now I turn to the next safe haven currency and that is USD/JPY.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

We can see here that since the US 30 actually went UP that money DID NOT FLOW into safety of the USD/JPY and you can see the CORRELATION between the Dow and USD/JPY. This was of course a GEOPOLITICAL event so now we turn our attention to Non Farm Payroll which will move the markets in a more predictable way.

I am also linking the 5 minute chart of EUR/USD so we can watch the reaction after NFP.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

You can see how it got weaker as the US Dollar got stronger short term.

I point out that by coming back to this post all the charts will update as MONEY FLOWS and of course you can change the Time Frame of the charts.

I now will put more FOCUS on the US Bonds led by the 10 Year US Bonds. The 5 minute chart of the 10 Year US Bonds is now linked here.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

Notice how MONEY initially FLOWED into the 10 Year US Bonds for SAFETY and of course the inverse happens with the YIELD as the Yield goes down. You can also see the IMMEDIATE HUMAN REACTION as once the 10 Year US Bonds went to 125.60 then it quickly reversed and went down to 125.30 so in effect YIELDS and Interest Rates went Up as the US Bonds sold back down. Are there any questions ? It is important that you understand this.

The US 30 (Dow 30) is now in positive as the ATTENTION TURNS to NFP as we will now do.

I wanted to deal with what has happened in LIVE TIME so that you would have an EXCELLENT PICTURE and understanding of how events (GEOPOLITICAL) affect the Asset Classes.

The time is now 7:05 AM Eastern Standard Time and I will update this post.

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT WE COMMUNICATE and that you ask me questions or perhaps point out something to me if you see something that I am not aware of or missed. So for the moment we cannot say if we have RISK OFF or RISK ON.

Good Day again and the news on Non Farm Payroll will be out in 45 minutes from now. The time is now 7:45 AM Eastern Standard Time here in Montreal.

Here is a PDF file which includes a good report and you should read through it quickly as I will do after I link it here.

http://www.eurexchange.com/blob/2977...k_20170407.pdf

I will post again at 8:00 AM and PLEASE do not be shy. Please post your questions or thoughts or anything that you care to share as we wait for Non Farm Payroll in 45 minutes.

The time is now 8:00 AM and I have started to update my post. Here is what I suggest that you do and that is do what I just did. Go quickly through all the charts and that takes less than a minute so that you can see any changes in the various Asset Classes. Everything is quiet and stable until we see the NFP which is estimated at 175,000 with the UI Rate projected to be 4.7 which we ALL know is a NONSENSE FAKE NUMBER because all the workers no longer even counted which now is over 75 Million people

The time is now 8:30 AM and the numbers are 98,000 WOW !!!

I will come back with my ANALYSIS around 9:00 AM Eastern Standard Time. Please post any questions that you have. Thank You...

The time is now 9:01 AM Eastern Standard Time in Montreal, Quebec, Canada and I will post my thoughts that I have posted already on another post so that all my Forex trading views and trades all are on this one post.

I have put on three positions as of now. I have gone SHORT one position of US 30 and SHORT one position of SPX500 and SHORT one position of USD/JPY.


I have given all of you here a excellent view and understanding in live time. There are fortunes to be made if and when you understand what I teach here however this is not a matter that can be learned in a few minutes. I have invested an incredible amount of time here as has KeepCalmfx and what my goal here now is to build up material for the new corporate website.

All questions and comments are welcome. It is hard to know if you understand me unless I have feedback.

Thank You....

ON EDIT .... Thank You Very Much KeepCalmfx for your daily charts and I point out to you and Roger SK that when you look at your charts and my post with the LIVE CHARTS from Finviz you can see the PERFECT CORRELATION.

We also see the MONEY FLOW TRADING METHOD work perfectly.

I put on only one position of each of the three Currency CFD pairs just to be in the markets since my initial expectation is for the markets to go down with RISK OFF however we may have other factors at work here as I have said earlier since the Markets open only at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time when the REAL MONEY FLOW STARTS. I am therefore waiting until 9:30 AM and of course 10:00 AM (Option Expiry) and the Europe close for the weekend at 11:30 AM and of course ALL the GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. I will copy and paste this into my trading post of this morning so that we will have a record of what happened and we can refer back to it whenever we need to teach and show what you need to know and do. A POST for the AGES (SMILE)




Benjaminis

Hello Everyone

KeepCalmfx , I know you are quite busy today however if you have time I put on 6 positions SHORT today of first US 30 of 100 units and also SPX500 our MAXIMUM 3 Positions for Maximum Risk of 6% of our trading capital when it is at $50,000 US Dollars where we start from. I have now only 4 open positions having closed the last two positions of each based on our strategy of scaling in and the locked in profit for those two Forex trades is $777 US Dollars and I opened it at 10 AM and closed both at first 12:10 PM and 12:25 PM as Europe traders were going home.

HAVE A LOOK FOLKS !!!


http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5


Perhaps you can find time to do a SCREENSHOT.

Thanks

All is Good. Life is Fun when you are making MONEY !!!


Benjaminis

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,299 Posts | Online Now

Hello KeepCalmfx

I know that you are not online at the moment however I want to share my thoughts with you on what has happened already today. It has been a fascinating day however I want to bottom line it for you and everyone else reading my comments.

Here is the MAJOR LESSON for today and EVERYDAY that we trade Forex. We always need to know if we have RISK ON or RISK OFF. That could change at the blink of an eye. I will again state for new readers to this thread that we have PERCEPTIONS which is not usually REALITY.

REALITY can be defined as HARD COLD FACTS even if the FACTS are misleading such as the Non Farm Payroll Number of 98,000 today. However the number is still the number for the moment so in normal times that number would mean that the US Economy is not as STRONG as the ADP number of 263,000 suggested on Wednesday. What happened this morning was complete surprise. That number could mean that we would not have an Interest Rate increase sooner than later.

So normally you would expect EUR/USD to get STRONGER and look now EUR/USD is below 106.00

So now you understand more why RISK ON or RISK OFF has to always be on your RADAR SCREEN. Now that the US Dollar Index is UP again you see how Gold has backed off for the moment. Regardless of anything pointed out in this post as to the REASONS for change of direction the main KEY is still and ALWAYS the Money Flow.

I will end this post and go to another important topic while waiting for feedback.

Thank You


Benjaminis

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,300 Posts | Online Now

HEADS UP LADIES AND GENTLEMAN

I am going to share with anyone that reads this post a Trade Secret or you can call it My Discovery and it is good to use everyday although as always use care and work with Stop Loss.

The reason that on most evenings starting from 5 PM EST after the Rollovers are done we have the retail traders who move EUR/USD up and it usually continues until 2 AM EST to 3 AM EST when the CAC and the DAX and the FTSE opens.

THE SHARKS see what the Retail Forex Traders have done and they know how to have their morning meal by selling the LONG EUR/USD and forcing them below all the Stops. Then normal Money Flow starts as the Europe Equity markets open at 3 AM EST as I have just said.

The way that I play it is to review things by looking at the charts using the 5 Minute and 15 Minute and 4 Hour Charts and then depending where it is meaning the Top or Bottom of the Time Frames then I join with the SHARKS and go SHORT EUR/USD !!! YUM YUM !!!

Hour Chart on EUR/USD

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=h1

Please note also that I only trade with the Trend so it requires for the TREND in EUR/USD to be down. That applies with all my Forex Trades and that is to trade with the Trend. "The Trend Is Your Friend"

Benjaminis

1. Post 1,607
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4. Jan 26, 2017 11:20am | Edited at 11:45am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,301 Posts | Online Now

http://www.marctomarket.com/

Snippet:
Marc to Market

Making Sense of Global Capital Markets

 

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JAN
26

Are Interest Rates No Longer Driving the Dollar?
The US 10-year yield is at its highs for the year, and yet the US dollar has been struggling to gain traction. Some suggest that this means that the dollar rally is over. Charts like this one are circulating among market participants.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: Since these comments are within my expertise to understand I will offer my views to help all of us understand. The US 10 Year Yield is at it's HIGH as we have been discussing on our thread only because of the FED position on raising Interest Rates perhaps three times during 2017. This announcement created the situation where they broke the Bond Bubble and TRILLIONS of Dollars were LOST as the Bonds sold off and affected Interest Rates around the World.

The MONEY FLOW rotated in Equities as we can all see surely helped along by the election of President Donald John Trump on November 8, 2016.

Now we see the results by the Dow 30 going over 20,000 in the last few days.

This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. The white line is the Dollar Index, and the yellow line is the US 10-year yield. The two look highly correlated over the past six months, until very recently.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: The CORRELATION is starting to maybe CHANGE because of the following reasons. The agenda of the FED and the Central Banks around the World appears to be opposite of President Trump. His agenda is to create jobs and protect Americans and help them improve their lives. The AGENDA of the FED and the Central banks is opposite this.

We are not convinced. First, one can see on the chart other times over the past six months where the relationship looked less tight but did not signal a change in drivers. Second, correlation is not something that can always we eyeballed, especially when the chart shows two-time series with two different scales.

JAN
26
Dollar is Firmer, but Mostly Sidelined, as Equity Charge Continues


The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies but is confined to narrow ranges, and well-worn ranges at that, but the focus has shifted to the strong advance in equities. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrials finally rose through the psychologically-important 20k level, and the S&P 500 gapped higher to new record levels.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: We now return to President Trump who wants the US Dollar to go down and the FED wants it to go up. The US Dollar MUST go down otherwise it causes harm to the Global community and in effect now the REAL CURRENCY WAR enters into the next stage.
PLEASE POST QUESTIONS IF I HAVE NOT MADE MY EXPLANATION VERY CLEAR. YOU REALLY NEED TO UNDERSTAND AND IT IS NOT THAT HARD IF YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT I HAVE JUST SAID.



The Nikkei and Topix gapped higher too, helping lead the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to a 1% gain and the third rise this week.
JAN
25


Great Graphic: Mexico and China Unit Labor Costs
This Great Graphic was posted by David Merkel on his AlephBlog with a hat tip to Sober Look. It looks at the divergence of unit labor costs in China and Mexico since 2007 through 2015.

The Mexican peso depreciated 17% last year. The yuan fell 6%. That 11% differential likely swamped the change in productivity and wages. That would translate into even greater divergence in unit labor costs.


Benjaminis

Here you go Benjamin

Dear KeepCalmfx

Memories are great. Remember when all these people had opened $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK Demo Accounts.

Unfortunately they decided that my lessons were too complicated and maybe they were. They were not that difficult for you as we all can see from your own results.

Here is a paste of that post...

All Feedback is WELCOME !!!

P.S. I only have one position still open as I closed 5 of the 6 positions. My two Forex Trade Plans worked good and Look Ma !!! No Charts (SMILE)

Benjaminis

 

1. Post 1,363
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Jan 18, 2017 4:37pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,302 Posts | Online Now

Hello Forex Traders

I would appreciate your cooperation on updating the status of those that are actively trading your FXCM UK $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account.

This is my list and I can log onto everyone's account however, I am trying to organize and so please take a SCREENSHOT of your account so I know that you are around.

Here is the last list that I have. I will review my notes later to see if I have left anyone out. Thank you for your participation.

This is the list of our 12 Forex Traders learning how to trade successfully using Money Flow Method and Risk Management.

On Sunday I posted the list and now I will update the list and open the door to a few others as some on the list are not active.


(1) DavidRP D102728560001

(2) dttsomh D102731143001

(3) Dildubai D102731452001

(4) KeepCalmfx D102742634001

(5) Rockey007 D25557124001

(6) raveon D102742734001

(7) wayfarer D102743041001

(8) Maximus2005 D102746118001

(9) mrmkg01 D25558223001

(10) mbleska D50785188

(11) vladimir8686 2971864

(12) carbonado D102754631001


Number (3), Dildubai has unsubscribed from my thread and his place is now open. The first in line is goodness. If there is anyone interested then please subscribe to my thread and send me a PM and I will make arrangements for you. Please also post here if you are interested.

goodness , I see you online now. Is your account opened and did you send me your password by PM or email and your User account number ?

Here is my trades for the day.

Agree, a trip down memory lane is always nice to take.
Feels like a long time ago, but also as if it was only yesterday.

I have learned so much in a short period of time