Trader Dale - daily trading levels

it's all over tweeter

Crazy is what crazy does.. :-)

didn't read, heard on ransquwark - https://ransquawk.com/packages/forex it's costly but as it happens

I've been asked about strike rates etc regarding 20/20 and 12/10, firstly I have to say my data is black or white, it does or it doesn't. I hope you've all listened to Dales commentary, assuming you have you'll know that yesterday on the 12/10 approach Dale took a B/E trade on the EU, he can & does manage trades very closely and that is by far the best way to trade. BUT - not everybody can, my data will have that trade as a loser on the 12/10 approach, as it would had the trade got 9.9 pips in front and reversed. You need to know that before reading the rest of this post. If this happened 3 times in a month then Dale and others who closely manage would have 0 or +1 or 2, others would have -36. It's important to understand my stats are based on the -36. It's probably also important to understand I've just polished off a bottle of red wine so this might be a bit jumbled

Dale achieves approx 74% strike rate using 12/10, not everybody does because not everybody is as skilled in managing open trades, or simply has a boss who they have to work for - this is really for the benefit of those who cannot closely manage their trades. My stats are achievable to anyone who has the same spread as I do, EU 0.7, AU 0.8, UJ 0.7, CU 1.0 - I can absolutely promise you that a pip here or there worse can be much more detrimental than you'd believe. Much more important than setting stops & PT's is getting a low spread and a broker who doesn't dick you around. I have no affiliation and nothing to gain, I use Core Spreads and am happy with their performance.

The table below is based upon every level that Dale has been kind enough to post, nobody can guarantee what will happen in the future but this is based upon 234 trades that reached the level without being in conflict with major news or having been tested. What you may notice is that using a stop loss anywhere between 10 and 20 with a PT of 10 does little to change the profitability, although the size of the loss increases the frequency of the wins compensates, the profitability stays reasonably consistent. So, lets assume you risk £100 on every trade, and there were 200 trades, overall you've risked £20,000, if your profit on investment was 15% then your profit would be £3,000 if it was 16%, then it's £3,200. That's pretty close. Hope that makes sense.

What you will notice is that using a 20/20 approach on a black & white basis has achieved a 66% strike rate and a 30% profit on investment, so that same £20,000 risked has now netted £6,000.

I really want to stress that if you are able to micro manage open trades as Dale does your 12/10 approach will be much better than the table shows - hopefully I've answered the questions I've had both in the thread and by PM.

Cheers Ziggy

I also use tpo levels from previous days profile futures e mini nasdaq my risk is 50 dollars to make 100+ in you example if I got it right risking 20000 to net 3000 is a scenario for disaster here's today's first hour

I'm not sure I understand you divergence, what I am saying is that if I took 200 trades and risked £100 on each one, then I'd have £6,000 profit to show for it - I'd say that was pretty good. I'd have 200 trades at £5 per pip, 132 would have won giving £13,200 and 68 would have lost giving £6,800 loss - overall that is £6,400 profit. I've never risked more than £100 on any trade, but in total for all 200 trades risked £20,000. Hope I've cleared up any misunderstanding

Great explanation Ziggy, virtual toast to you buddy.

Understand the problem is trading forex with brokers pricing mechanism. Take same money and more to futures e mini nasdac trades better than every instrument out there and you can trade 5 dollars a tick and only risk 60 based on your r:r

The world must of known I was on an off-site conference day today, why else would we have such a monster move that could of been scalped!

I have to agree with you Dale-- A picture is worth a thousand words

eur/usd 1.0646 long

audusd 0.7569 long

Be aware of the Daily Pivot.... 1.0642... just my 2cents....

Took a short from 1.0673
+20 banked :-)

Indeed a good call.,..... different older POC's were in this area. Also a resistance level... and around 1/2 P1

I think Dale is respect the up-move from the last days and for that he is only looking for Longs.... I guess...

congratulations mate, however I would say it was pretty risky one.

Why...?

Thanks, I was considering for a long time but figured the sellers from earlier would step in
as soon as mr tweet was done tweeting ;-)

The level looked already tested to me. I also respect the up move as you said.

I'm out this trade.... don't trust him while there is an old POC between target and my entry... it looks if this old POC is blocking for now

and maybe I'm to cautious....