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Sentiment (Forex Market)

  • #121
  • Apr 12, 2017 8:57am Apr 12, 2017 8:57am
Quoting okshop
{quote} 0.6937 now 16 = 21 SOLID PIPS / EURJPY ALSO HAD SOLID PIPS, Thanks to MR TEEK
well, you are welcome my friend.
But, let me tell you what you'd be looking at right now when you let the trades run.

Since monday afternoon:
realised green Pips (booked): 282
currently unrealised Pips (open trades): 132

let them run dude
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  • #122
  • Apr 12, 2017 8:58am Apr 12, 2017 8:58am
Quoting Teek
{quote} do NOT scalp my entries !! These trades are NOT intraday trades. For scalping you need much better entries than the ones I take on these trades. These trades are not for intraday trading. Give them time to develop. The only trades that I close or scale down on an intraday level are the non-performers. So far, they all perform. Slow, but steady. Perfectly normal that they move down 80 pips, up 50, down 20, up 30, down 100.... as long as they fit in the overall picture and perform into the right direction, I don't touch them. These are NOT...
WOW, must try to find this LION attitude. Really not easy… (In time)
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #123
  • Apr 12, 2017 9:07am Apr 12, 2017 9:07am
Quoting okshop
{quote} WOW, must try to find this LION attitude. Really not easy (In time)
1) do your Top Down analysis: monthly -> weekly > Daily
2) if you spot a good a setup (low risk, high reward, at least 1:3 RR on the Daily or better)
2 a) plan the trade, the entry, the stop, the targets You need to know where you start, where you stop, where you go to, where you scale down, where you scale up
2 b) look for entry on D1 > H4 > (maybe) H1
3) sit on hands, do NOTHING, go out, meet friends, enjoy life, let the markets do the work, you have done your job, you either win or lose, it doesn't matter.

when you planned your trades, if they lose you take a small loss. If you win you take a solid win.
That's why we plan out trades.
Trading is: -taking calculated risk on potential profit-, and nothing else.
It is NOT about winning trades, it is about making money. (most people never understand this, but this is the hardest part to learn
Manage your Risk versus your Reward and you will succeed. It is not about the technic or system or whatever... it is all in the Risk vs Reward, and that is the only "holy grail" you really need to look for. Anything else is just noise. (sheep can be so feckin' loud...)

try to trade the D1 my friend. Teaches you patience.
Plus, it's stressfree. Very simply priceaction trading on Support/Resistance.
No stress
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  • #124
  • Apr 12, 2017 10:05am Apr 12, 2017 10:05am
Quoting Teek
{quote} well, you are welcome my friend. But, let me tell you what you'd be looking at right now when you let the trades run. Since monday afternoon: realised green Pips (booked): 282 currently unrealised Pips (open trades): 132 let them run dude
Nice trade mate.
  • #125
  • Apr 12, 2017 10:12am Apr 12, 2017 10:12am
Quoting Teek
{quote} 1) do your Top Down analysis: monthly -> weekly > Daily 2) if you spot a good a setup (low risk, high reward, at least 1:3 RR on the Daily or better) 2 a) plan the trade, the entry, the stop, the targets You need to know where you start, where you stop, where you go to, where you scale down, where you scale up 2 b) look for entry on D1 > H4 > (maybe) H1 3) sit on hands, do NOTHING, go out, meet friends, enjoy life, let the markets do the work, you have done your job, you either win or lose, it doesn't matter. when you planned your trades,...
exuse me, no hedging strategy involved? just RR 1:3 ...and sit on hands?
Member
  • #126
  • Edited 11:19am Apr 12, 2017 11:05am | Edited 11:19am
Cad trade turned out to be a disaster today.
Could have closed at 60 green, greed takes over, walked out with only 3 pips.
Should have seen it coming...
Uh... that hurt...
Taking the rest of the week off.
  • #127
  • Edited 11:22am Apr 12, 2017 11:10am | Edited 11:22am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} exuse me, no hedging strategy involved? just RR 1:3 ...and sit on hands?
Very good question

I trade 3 accounts. 1 private account and a private fund with 2 accounts.

my private "family & friends" fund
runs two accounts with a short and a long portfolio both hedged against each other and with very little Forex involved.
That's a completely different game and I can not talk about any of my activity on these accounts because: fund... means, other peoples money.
I must respect this and also I am not supposed to talk about how I hedge the portfolios against each other. There's not much currencie trading going on there, that's all I can say. Oh and, not that it matters but my personal share at the end of each year goes 100% to homeless people. I do not take any personal profit from this.
(no dear reader you can not get in, I am in the process of scaling out positions that I hold since a long time and will close out towards the end of year. Enough is enough)

Retail trading
The trades I share here are all private account trades only.
I don't hedge these (all too often..)
...well, ok... sometimes I do hedge FX trades against correlating CfD's, but not often. Depends on total exposure.
5% "naked" exposure (unhedged) is fine with me. Anything higher than that I must hedge (rule!), and that's just too stressful to do on only one account. Proper hedging needs independent accounts. Don't even think about it as a private retail trader, shit's too complicated. So I simply keep my total exposure low and only hold very few positions with low risk and potential high reward and keep it very stressfree.
Keep it simple, look for good Risk vs Reward, and your good
It is not about your hitrate (which is pretty good btw). It is all about your profit. Don't try to win every trade, I couldn't care less about small losers as long as I keep catching the runners from time to time
It's a small account that I started to build for myself, nothing fancy....
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  • #128
  • Apr 12, 2017 11:23am Apr 12, 2017 11:23am
Quoting Teek
{quote} Very good question I trade 3 accounts. 1 private account and a private fund with 2 accounts. my private fund runs two accounts with a short and a long portfolio both hedged against each other and with very little Forex involved. That's a completely different game and I can not talk about any of my activity on these accounts because: fund... means, other peoples money. I must respect this and also I am not supposed to talk about how I hedge the portfolios against each other. There's not much currencie trading going on there, that's...
hihihi, nice research you have done about hedging, ...Mr. Fund manager
I bet you just retail some testing fun (not fund) account as the most of us do anyway, 5℅ unhedged exposure is fine

But, consider this, if you play tossing the coin, using 1:3 RR it means that every time you lose, you lose 1$, and every time you win, you win 3$
Since the coin probability is 50-50% for the heads and tails as well, it means a hudge winning probability for the player, right?
Now, how naive we can possibly be?! lol
Member
  • #129
  • Edited 11:45am Apr 12, 2017 11:30am | Edited 11:45am
Quoting pkimnyc
Cad trade turned out to be a disaster today. Could have closed at 60 green, greed takes over, walked out with only 3 pips. Should have seen it coming... Uh... that hurt... Taking the rest of the week off.
Sorry to hear that bro.
CAD is a beast, fecks me up anytime.

My NZD/USD does not really perform. I scaled it down to 2x 0.50 Lot positions and will sit on these until they either get stopped or perform.
Reason: USD Index looks all too bearish for my taste.
No more shorts against the USD for now...

Still sitting pretty on my EUR/JPY shorts (riskfree), trailing my stops.
Also I hold on to the GBP/JPY short that I opened today.

No more positions before easter from me.

I am afraid of "holiday gaps" after the long weekend and I don't want to see my Stops getting gapped out.
The only thing I can do to prevent a bad wakeup on monday is: scaling down.


@Tudor:
"But, consider this, if you play tossing the coin, using 1:3 RR it means that every time you lose, you lose 1$, and every time you win, you win 3$"
I am not tossing coins. The 1:3 is my minimum requirement to enter a longerterm trade on the Daily.
When these pull they make much more than 1:3. (my UJ trade yesterday made 1:6 for example and I closed early. My first EJ short sits on 1:7 currently...)
Trading is not gambling, I take calculated risk entries, not tossing coins. I must have pretty good reasons to enter my trades, I don't "guess". I'm a technical trader and I am dead serious about every penny that I trade, be it mine or anyone elses penny.
And, I am not a "fund manager". It's a private thing and I do care for some people, that's my intention. Nothing else. I'm involved in trading business since 12 years and I do have a background though. The private fund was aimed for one year. We are in year three and against my "investors" will, I close out. I do have my reasons (health, stress, preasure, 46% net ROI, staring at stocks since three years...)
I don't mind trading other peoples money but I never really wanted to trade my friends money. They talked me into it, I did my best, we all made profit, and now it is time to come to an end. Enough is enough

"..the end is important in all things"
~ Tsunetomo Yamamoto


... I do think about something new for next year... maybe
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  • #130
  • Apr 12, 2017 11:46am Apr 12, 2017 11:46am
Quoting Teek
{quote}n. @Tudor: "But, consider this, if you play tossing the coin, using 1:3 RR it means that every time you lose, you lose 1$, and every time you win, you win 3$" I am not tossing coins. The 1:3 is my minimum requirement to enter a longerterm trade on the Daily. When these pull they make much more than 1:3. (my UJ trade yesterday made 1:6 for example and I closed early. My first EJ short sits on 1:7 currently...) Trading is not gambling, I take calculated risk entries, not tossing coins. I must have pretty good reasons to enter my trades, I don't...
All I am saying is that RR is irrelevant, the price will swipe the SL many times before eventually hit the target.
I think is all about the strategy. If the strategy is good, you make money, if no good, not even the RR won't save you on long term imo
Member
  • #131
  • Apr 12, 2017 11:51am Apr 12, 2017 11:51am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} All I am saying is that RR is irrelevant, the price will swipe the SL many times before eventually hit the target. I think is all about the strategy. If the strategy is good, you make money, if no good, not even the RR won't save you on long term imo
That is the Scalpers intraday approach, where RR really doesn't matter and the hitrate comes into play much more.
I did cut down on my intraday scalping because health (can't spend that many hours infront screens anymore) and spring/summer knocks at the door.
So what I do now is I look for good RR and let the markets do the work for me. Less positions, less stress, more profit.
To each their own
I still hop on a good scalp trade when I see one though, but it's not my main focus anymore. Gotta be flexible as a trader.
On the longterm targets I am not stubborn. I do set wide targets based on support/resistance (Fibs!) and I trail my Stops. I do close out on strong signs of turnaround and I close early on non-performers. Trade smart, not stubborn, I don't try to impose my will upon the markets, that never works.
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  • #132
  • Apr 12, 2017 11:57am Apr 12, 2017 11:57am
Quoting Teek
{quote} That is the Scalpers intraday approach, where RR really doesn't matter and the hitrate comes into play much more. I did cut down on my intraday scalping because health (can't spend that many hours infront screens anymore) and spring/summer knocks at the door. So what I do now is I look for good RR and let the markets do the work for me. Less positions, less stress, more profit. To each their own I still hop on a good scalp trade when I see one though, but it's not my main focus anymore. Gotta be flexible as a trader.
the market is a fractalic structure, if you know what i mean. the only trouble with intraday trading is the cost of trading, not the basic chart structure wich is the same as on any TF.
Never mind, ...I'm tired ...you're doing good, keep up with your swing trading
Member
  • #133
  • Apr 12, 2017 12:01pm Apr 12, 2017 12:01pm
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} the market is a fractalic structure, if you know what i mean. the only trouble with intraday trading is the cost of trading, not the basic chart structure wich is the same as on any TF. Never mind, ...I'm tired ...you're doing good, keep up with your swing trading
I'm not even a swing trader
All my current trades are breakout trades. The UJ yesterday was H4 swingtrade (sold top of range). If it was all that easy... *sigh*
I trade all sorts of setups. Breakouts, Swings, Mean Reversals.... whatever the markets show me, all based on priceaction around S/R
In my opinion you gotta be flexible. Different market conditions require different action (or non action). Why would I not take a mean reversal when I see one, or a good swing when I see one... or a breakout... or even a good intraday scalp. Where there is opportunity, there is a chance.
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  • #134
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:14pm Apr 12, 2017 3:14pm
seems Mr Trump has tweeted something?
That killed my remaining Kiwi shorts *lol*
Thank god for the gut feeling that told me "I dont like this" when I looked at the USD Index and scaled down these shorts to a small size.
Yen shorts still alive. Yen is Bozz!
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  • #135
  • Apr 13, 2017 1:03am Apr 13, 2017 1:03am
My Intraday Outlook.
(ahead London)

It's rare such a one way clean-cut reaction all over the FX board.
Only NFP or a big market maker as Trump can do that.

The Clown has plans.
He dreamed last night that USD is too strong and obviously it doesn't stimulate exports ...so he can't "make America big" no more.
He also want Yellen out in 2018 ...the old lady is too smart for his clown glorious visions ...and paranoia etc.

EUR/USD complied and jumped ~80pips just for Mr. Clownstick.
The only problem on EUR/USD is that nobody seem to sell euros at all (!)
The traders are so sure on the USdollar collapse so they don't even cash their profits selling euros.

In this conditions is hard to estimate where the correction will occur and how long will last.
US inflation (PPI) and Claims numbers may strengthen again the USD later today, possibly starting a serious correction.

Technically, an ascending broadening wedge is shaping up. Those formations are not funny for trading at all.

My Intraday range S/R levels easy to spot on the chart below.
E/U is to break limits at 1.0660 -1.0680 or range between them until US data.

Have a good trading day/week you all!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZHART1.png Size: 40 KB
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  • #136
  • Apr 13, 2017 2:14am Apr 13, 2017 2:14am
Indicator Alert Preview (coming soon)
Attached Image
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #137
  • Edited 2:40am Apr 13, 2017 2:20am | Edited 2:40am
Good morning

well, we sold many many Euros for Yen, very profitable

Speaking of Euros and Yen.
I closed my EUR/JPY Shorts, my NZD/USD shorts got killed my Mr Trump, and the only position I hold is my GBP/JPY short because a 1:7:14 on the daily with strong bearish footprints on the weekly and nice rejections on H4 will never be ignored, that's for sure.

No more open positions, I close my week in green.



Here's the GBP/JPY Daily
this will either show a dramatic bounce and kill the 60 Pip Stop (in which case I then wait...)
or it will break and pull down (in which case I am in the market)
Reason: Monday showed a good rejection of higher price, Tuesday the price pulled below structure and closed, Wednesday confirmed with a lower low and lower high and close below structure. Today it shows a bit of a fight but the H4 candles show good rejections of higher price and fail to make higher highs.
My Stop sits on 60 Pips which should be safe. If it pulls any higher than that I don't want to be short, I wait.

Happy easter everyone, stay green
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Daily_Zoomout.png Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Daily_Short.png Size: 71 KB
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  • #138
  • Apr 13, 2017 2:31am Apr 13, 2017 2:31am
Quoting okshop
Indicator Alert Preview (coming soon) {image}
Crazy special indicator, OK! Everybody should have one
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  • #139
  • Apr 13, 2017 3:04am Apr 13, 2017 3:04am
Long 1.0643
T1 1.0670
T2 1.0690-95
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZHART1.png Size: 50 KB
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  • #140
  • Apr 13, 2017 3:11am Apr 13, 2017 3:11am
Mean Reversal Trade setup on the Cable (GBP/USD)
If you have balls, sell top of range and go for the reversal, look at the gap between price and value.

It's an agressive entry and needs a wide stop though but juicy if you are looking for a quick 80-100 pips.
It depends on news! So beware if you take this. news in 20 minutes (10:30 my time) can very well kill the stop. (and give a better price )

GBP/USD - H4 Setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4.png Size: 79 KB
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