Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 421 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #8,401
  • Apr 2, 2017 3:48am Apr 2, 2017 3:48am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello Isaac, your monthly and weekly trendlines are incorrect. That monthly supply you drew is incorrect as well. Cheers, Alfonso
thanks for pointing out! Maybe my WK TL is incorrect because it's a CP instead but my MN TL. i drew it because there was 3 peaks and connect the last 2 peaks is that incorrect?.
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #8,402
  • Apr 2, 2017 5:15am Apr 2, 2017 5:15am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Meisterman, just one chart is not enough to take a trading decision, three timeframes are needed. EURGBP had a D1 CP DZ higher (you didn't draw it), once that one was eliminated rules won't allow you to take the continuation pattern of demand you took. Strong Daily supply was also in control (its not on your chart. Cheers, Alfonso
Thanks Alfonso. That helped seeing from another perspective. Thank you.
  • #8,403
  • Apr 2, 2017 4:35pm Apr 2, 2017 4:35pm
Quoting isaacpeh
{quote} thanks for pointing out! Maybe my WK TL is incorrect because it's a CP instead but my MN TL. i drew it because there was 3 peaks and connect the last 2 peaks is that incorrect?.
Let me share my view on your M1 AUDNZD chart.

- There had to be a 'lover low' where the yellow arrow resides for the previous peak to be valid, so your trend line is not correct. I drew the correct one for that leg and other significant ones.
- Your green supply zone is not valid as it has not eliminated any opposing demand zone. I added the last valid supply and demand zones which price is consolidating between.

So this is my view, Alfonso might kindly correct me if necessary

Happy pips..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD.PNG Size: 146 KB
Trade what you see..
  • #8,404
  • Apr 2, 2017 7:02pm Apr 2, 2017 7:02pm
Hi Alfonso and all the members.
What are your thoughts about this possible setup?
On the W1 we have a downtrend. On the D1 we have an uptrend. I was looking to go long on the DZ on the 4h.
What do you guys think?
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  • #8,405
  • Apr 2, 2017 7:42pm Apr 2, 2017 7:42pm
Quoting Chawl
{quote} Let me share my view on your M1 AUDNZD chart. - There had to be a 'lover low' where the yellow arrow resides for the previous peak to be valid, so your trend line is not correct. I drew the correct one for that leg and other significant ones. - Your green supply zone is not valid as it has not eliminated any opposing demand zone. I added the last valid supply and demand zones which price is consolidating between. So this is my view, Alfonso might kindly correct me if necessary Happy pips.. {image}
Thanks for clarifying I see my error now!
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #8,406
  • Apr 6, 2017 10:00pm Apr 6, 2017 10:00pm
Hi,

This thread is really great! I'm new to this forum and am trying to learn supply and demand as it is a system that seems logical when it comes to buying low and selling high. I like the thoughts on how we buy in the supermarket. I wonder why I don't do that in forex.

I would just like to ask what the definition of a basing candle is. Is it a candle which has a body less than 50% of the next candle?
  • #8,407
  • Apr 7, 2017 12:54am Apr 7, 2017 12:54am
Quoting Eaglefx274
Hi, This thread is really great! I'm new to this forum and am trying to learn supply and demand as it is a system that seems logical when it comes to buying low and selling high. I like the thoughts on how we buy in the supermarket. I wonder why I don't do that in forex. I would just like to ask what the definition of a basing candle is. Is it a candle which has a body less than 50% of the next candle?
A basing candle is a candle that pauses, it does not depend on the next or previous candle. Welcome to the thread. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,408
  • Apr 7, 2017 1:38am Apr 7, 2017 1:38am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} A basing candle is a candle that pauses, it does not depend on the next or previous candle. Welcome to the thread. Cheers, Alfonso
Thanks for that Sir. So we don't need any parameter to consider a candle as a pause?

I've been looking at past charts moving it candle per candle so that I would be making decisions at the right edge of the chart.

Also, for continuation patterns RBR and DBD, does the base really have to have an opposing candle, like a red candle on an RBR or green candle on DBD? I see many RBR with no red basing candle that worked and DBD with no green basing candles that worked or was that just a lucky few samples?

And the trades that I decided I would take were outside the diagonal trendline connecting the valleys. And it also worked. Though basing on your description of a trend demand being respected and supply being absorbed, the chart was trending.

I have an example of what worked below. I considered the gap as a rally on this one since if it was like the forex market, it would have been a big solid candle. Star is the entry and inverted triangles are the exit, where it hits a target or a trailing stop.

By the way, really nice work you have done Sir.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,409
  • Apr 8, 2017 12:53am Apr 8, 2017 12:53am
Hello Alfonso sir and other traders,

I am new to this thread and a beginner to SD trading.

I would like to know the term "WoW trade" where I saw somewhere in the thread.

And Is there any other entry strategy rather then Set-and-forget and Confirmation trade?

Any reply is welcomed and much appreciated.
Thank you in advance.
  • #8,410
  • Apr 8, 2017 1:20am Apr 8, 2017 1:20am
Quoting thiha
Hello Alfonso sir and other traders, I am new to this thread and a beginner to SD trading. I would like to know the term "WoW trade" where I saw somewhere in the thread. And Is there any other entry strategy rather then Set-and-forget and Confirmation trade? Any reply is welcomed and much appreciated. Thank you in advance.
Those trades are advanced trades and not part of the basic setups in this thread together with other setups, they are only available for members at www.set-and-forget.com

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,411
  • Apr 8, 2017 1:21am Apr 8, 2017 1:21am
Quoting Eaglefx274
{quote} Thanks for that Sir. So we don't need any parameter to consider a candle as a pause? I've been looking at past charts moving it candle per candle so that I would be making decisions at the right edge of the chart. Also, for continuation patterns RBR and DBD, does the base really have to have an opposing candle, like a red candle on an RBR or green candle on DBD? I see many RBR with no red basing candle that worked and DBD with no green basing candles that worked or was that just a lucky few samples? And the trades that I decided I would...
Hello my friend,

A pause is a pause, price has to pause, not to drop or to rally but pausing, a break. Imbalances are always potential unless you do a top down analysis of at least timeframes, one timeframe alone is not enough.

Regards,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,412
  • Apr 8, 2017 1:23am Apr 8, 2017 1:23am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Those trades are advanced trades and not part of the basic setups in this thread together with other setups, they are only available for members at www.set-and-forget.com Cheers, Alfonso
Thanks for your quick reply and info. I will be looking forward to check the website you mentioned.

Thanks.
  • #8,413
  • Apr 11, 2017 2:55am Apr 11, 2017 2:55am
Apple US Stock all weekly chart is over-extended, stock too expensive to buy as per supply and demand logic. Waiting for a bigger retracement and new areas of demand on the daily chart in order to go long again. Unsustainable rally which usually ends up in a much bigger retracement. Buying Apple now would be like going to the supermarket and trying to buy your favourite food 10 times more expensive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: apple_weekly_demand_levels.png Size: 89 KB


Have a nice day!
Cheers,
Alfonso

Supply and demand trading analysis blog
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,414
  • Apr 11, 2017 12:09pm Apr 11, 2017 12:09pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello my friend, A pause is a pause, price has to pause, not to drop or to rally but pausing, a break. Imbalances are always potential unless you do a top down analysis of at least timeframes, one timeframe alone is not enough. Regards, Alfonso
Hello Alfonso,

Can you expatiate on Eaglefx274's question assuming a larger timeframe up trend, must there be an opposing (green) candle inside the demand zone of a zone timeframe for that dz to be valid? Conversely in a larger timeframe down trend, must there be an opposing (red) candle inside the supply zone of the zone timeframe for the sz to be valid?

Cheers!
  • #8,415
  • Apr 12, 2017 12:03am Apr 12, 2017 12:03am
Quoting jamaa
{quote} Hello Alfonso, Can you expatiate on Eaglefx274's question assuming a larger timeframe up trend, must there be an opposing (green) candle inside the demand zone of a zone timeframe for that dz to be valid? Conversely in a larger timeframe down trend, must there be an opposing (red) candle inside the supply zone of the zone timeframe for the sz to be valid? Cheers!
All that has been explained over and over in this thread. Please take your time to read the thread, search it please. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,416
  • Apr 13, 2017 1:13am Apr 13, 2017 1:13am
Weekly uptrend on Ambuja Cement LTD NSE Indian Stock. New weekly demand created around 234 price area after removing tested weekly supply zone at 240, long bias at weekly demand levels. New levels of demand being created, supply zones being eliminated, long bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ambuja_cement_weekly_demand.png Size: 86 KB

Cheers,
Alfonso
Supply and demand trading analysis blog
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,417
  • Apr 13, 2017 4:57am Apr 13, 2017 4:57am
[quote=panoramia;9760054]Weekly uptrend on Ambuja Cement LTD NSE Indian Stock. New weekly demand created around 234 price area after removing tested weekly supply zone at 240, long bias at weekly demand levels. New levels of demand being created, supply zones being eliminated, long bias. {image} Cheers, Alfonso [url="http://Weekly uptrend on Ambuja Cement LTD NSE Indian Stock. New weekly demand created around 234 price area after removing tested weekly supply zone at 240, long bias at weekly demand levels. New levels of demand being created, supply zones being eliminated,...[/quote]

Hi Alfonso,

In the context of your above analysis, how do you del with a gap into an objective SZ?

Cheers!
  • #8,418
  • Apr 13, 2017 5:52am Apr 13, 2017 5:52am
Quoting jamaa
{quote} Hi Alfonso, In the context of your above analysis, how do you del with a gap into an objective SZ? Cheers!
A top down analysis needs to be done, there is information about gaps in the thread. Please search for it. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,419
  • Apr 16, 2017 1:36am Apr 16, 2017 1:36am
can anyone please guide me, that if monthly demand zone comes above weekly or daily demand zone, then where should I place the trade?
  • #8,420
  • Apr 16, 2017 2:35am Apr 16, 2017 2:35am
How would you guys read this chart?
I suppose many would say buy at DZ, but we're very high on the curve, close to a strong weekly SZ.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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