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Sentiment (Forex Market)

  • #81
  • Apr 10, 2017 8:07am Apr 10, 2017 8:07am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Nicely done, Raph! I am a fan of OKshop. He helped me a lot with his friends. Your analysis is apperciated here
Thanks, old friend.
I know I'm welcome here

On the trades:
I don't really like to share trades. Not because I am not certain (I never trade from the place of doubt), but I don't like anyone to follow trades who does not understand what a very realistic (and pretty good) "hitrate" is, and how it makes sense with a solid riskmanagement.
Most less experienced traders struggle on this part, and it is vital to understand that it's perfectly fine to lose half or more of your trades as long as you keep up a good risk/reward ratio on your winners. My hitrate can go as low as 75% FAIL and I still make money. So... for me it's a nobrainer to take these trades and I am very fine with losing them occasionaly because every single trade that I take is a very well calculated potential loss vs potential reward and I really never exceed my total market exposure of 5%. (curent total exposure is less than 3% btw...)
This is very important to know and understand BEFORE anyone takes these trade ideas and thinks about blamegames when they lose.
Trading is not a game and it's a not a gamble. It is -taking calculated risk on calculated profit- and nothing else

I hope I never have to experience the kind of witchhunt that I did experience in "the other forum", where I did not even share my ideas.
I was invited and I feel very honored to post and share in here and I thank OKshop for this very fine thread
And I am also happy to see my friend Tudor here, who's intraday analysis and knowledge of fundamentals are both very solid!

Smile! Always
you are not expected to understand this
  • #82
  • Apr 10, 2017 11:09am Apr 10, 2017 11:09am
Quoting Teek
{quote} Thanks, old friend. I know I'm welcome here On the trades: I don't really like to share trades. Not because I am not certain (I never trade from the place of doubt), but I don't like anyone to follow trades who does not understand what a very realistic (and pretty good) "hitrate" is, and how it makes sense with a solid riskmanagement. Most less experienced traders struggle on this part, and it is vital to understand that it's perfectly fine to lose half or more of your trades as long as you keep up a good risk/reward ratio...
There you are friend.
Nice to see you have found a home.
Definitely much quite environment and analytic approach. It suits you very well.
I'll chime in time to time, if the thread owner doesn't mind so much?
See you soon buddy.
/Cheers
  • #83
  • Apr 10, 2017 11:47am Apr 10, 2017 11:47am
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} There you are friend. Nice to see you have found a home. Definitely much quite environment and analytic approach. It suits you very well. I'll chime in time to time, if the thread owner doesn't mind so much? See you soon buddy. /Cheers
you are not expected to understand this
  • #84
  • Apr 10, 2017 1:17pm Apr 10, 2017 1:17pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} There you are friend. Nice to see you have found a home. Definitely much quite environment and analytic approach. It suits you very well. I'll chime in time to time, if the thread owner doesn't mind so much? See you soon buddy. /Cheers
mi casa es su casa, consider this your thread and share experience whenever you’re able to. regards
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #85
  • Apr 10, 2017 1:28pm Apr 10, 2017 1:28pm
Quoting Teek
Trade idea: USD/JPY, Short Risk/Reward: 1:3 I took an entry on the H1 but it is not an intraday trade. If it takes profit intraday I'm fine, otherwise I just let it run. Stop is tight, TP is bottom of range, This is a set and forget trade. It either takes the Stop or takes the Profit. Easy trading, small size, no stress... Warning: it's a "speculative" trade. I sell top of the range. It might just take the stop and show a bullish break. So, this is not a "safe bet". If you do this, please keep your stop tight and your risk low! (and do...
great sell call (7 hours 36++ pips) currently PA at intraday pivot
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #86
  • Apr 10, 2017 3:03pm Apr 10, 2017 3:03pm
Quoting okshop
{quote} great sell call (7 hours 36++ pips) currently PA at intraday pivot
thank you, but not quite enough. My UJ trade stands at 1:1 currently and I don't touch it.
The Silver trade gives me pain. From the moment I took the entry it pulled against me and I could have gotten a much better entry where it is now, but it's still alive. Will take a look at it tomorrow if the tight stop survives. Usualy when I close such a trade early, it pulls. So I leave it open, if it takes the stop it was well worth the try
That's all normal, you gotta have patience and discipline when you trade the higher timeframes.
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  • #87
  • Apr 10, 2017 8:12pm Apr 10, 2017 8:12pm
UC Monthly view.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADMonthly.jpg Size: 288 KB
  • #88
  • Apr 10, 2017 8:52pm Apr 10, 2017 8:52pm
AU Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDMonthly.png Size: 52 KB
  • #89
  • Apr 10, 2017 11:44pm Apr 10, 2017 11:44pm
Quoting teek
trade idea: Usd/jpy, short risk/reward: 1:3 i took an entry on the h1 but it is not an intraday trade. If it takes profit intraday i'm fine, otherwise i just let it run. Stop is tight, tp is bottom of range, this is a set and forget trade. It either takes the stop or takes the profit. Easy trading, small size, no stress... Warning: It's a "speculative" trade. I sell top of the range. It might just take the stop and show a bullish break. So, this is not a "safe bet". If you do this, please keep your stop tight and your risk low! (and do...
sell call by mr teek
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: super uj call sell - Copy.JPG Size: 128 KB
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #90
  • Apr 11, 2017 12:48am Apr 11, 2017 12:48am
Update on yesterdays trades:

Silver:
closed for a 15 pip loss before it took the stop. The short didn't pull after I took my late entry, so the idea didn't work out. This happens and is perfectly fine, part of the game. You can't win them all

USD/JPY:
we have a winner. I closed for 60 pips at the 61.8% retracement. Little bit early but I don't want to see it pull back up on London open and after a loser it's nice to book a winner. 17 pips short of my initial target, but 60 pips is not bad for a trade that was entered yesterday afternoon and gave me no pain along the way.
UJ, promised and delivered
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1_trade.png Size: 67 KB
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  • #91
  • Apr 11, 2017 1:10am Apr 11, 2017 1:10am
I love this peaceful atmosphere .. keep!
P.S. those without M.M. and does not accept losses ... has little to do with forex
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."... But ..
  • #92
  • Apr 11, 2017 1:16am Apr 11, 2017 1:16am
Trade idea: AUD/USD, Short
R/R: 1:5+

I have my eyes on this short since a while and I am waiting for an entry.
Today could be the day. Right now we are 1 hour away from London open, so I wait a little bit longer.
I don't need to catch the "perfect" entry, but I'd like to see it pull up a little bit more before I enter the trade.
I outlined the trade on the Daily chart as how it would look if I'd take it now.
As you can see I am gunning for a wide target of around 200 pips, which on a 40 pip stop would give us a 1:5, on 30 pip stop it could even deliver a 1:7 or better.
I wait for London open and watch the H1/H4 charts for an entry. If London gives confirmation I take the trade.
A correlation trade on NZD/USD is also possible and lately even looks more volatile!

I do NOT take the trade yet! I wait for entry on H1/H4 and will post a new chart when I take the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Daily_idea.png Size: 73 KB
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  • #93
  • Edited 1:39am Apr 11, 2017 1:26am | Edited 1:39am
Quoting Teek
Trade idea: AUD/USD, Short R/R: 1:5+ I have my eyes on this short since a while and I am waiting for an entry. Today could be the day. Right now we are 1 hour away from London open,
the same you .. add EJ to your short and keep always open ...

- - I sell @ 117.700

elections in France .. will force shifting capital of J coming weeks
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."... But ..
  • #94
  • Apr 11, 2017 1:33am Apr 11, 2017 1:33am
AUD/USD:
I wait. I do not like the H4.
The bearish move has already pulled pretty far (D1). H4 shows bullish potential which will give us a better price. H1 stands flat at value and shows bullish candles.
As it stands now, I don't like the entry price and I rather wait. It's a difficult trade and I think we can get a better price and I wait for the pullback.
This is one of these trades that can go massively right or a little bit wrong. Timing is very important on this one.
Another option would be a sellstop order underneith the latest low with a wider stop, but I don't like the RR on this when I do have the time to sit and wait and watch the charts.
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  • #95
  • Apr 11, 2017 1:58am Apr 11, 2017 1:58am
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -
Asian stocks fell in choppy trade on Tuesday as the political tinderbox in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula added to uncertainty over the looming French vote, pushing edgy investors into safer assets such as the yen and Treasuries.
Nikkei -104
HSI -184
STI -9
DJF -16
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #96
  • Apr 11, 2017 2:12am Apr 11, 2017 2:12am
meanwhile in Hawkland ^^

I took a first entry on Aussie (AUD/USD) right on London open.
Agressive entry, half size, with a very tight stop of only 15 pips, taken on the H1.
No set target yet, I let it run or get stopped. If it takes the 15 pip stop I don't want to have anything to do with the short trade until I get a better price up there.
But should it pull down, I have a half size position in the market and will look for opportunities to scale in more size and let it run. To do this, I need a break with a lower low.
It's a very low risk trade with high potential that can go massively right (200+ pips potential) or a tiny bit wrong (15-30 pip loss).
I take these R/R trades anytime

Chart: H4 with first entry
(this is not an intraday trade!)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_H4_entry.png Size: 77 KB
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  • #97
  • Apr 11, 2017 2:39am Apr 11, 2017 2:39am
the Aussie Daily chart and 42/115/200 reasons to try this breakout trade
This is too juicy to not try it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Daily_trade.png Size: 82 KB
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  • #98
  • Edited 3:53am Apr 11, 2017 3:32am | Edited 3:53am
alright, I did build another short on the Aussie and a small short on the Kiwi Weekly.
Leave these alone for a good while, see how they develop. I'd need the FED to push their fancy bubble a little more to get the impulse that I need on the USD for these trades to pull. Greedy people do greedy things, so I think we do have a good chance on these trades and if not, the loss is very small. Always look for low risk vs high potential reward trades, and give them some room to develop.
Good things need time

Here is the NZD/USD Short entry that I took on the weekly chart
Thats a 500 pip target and a 200 pip medium target there on a 50 pip risk.
That's a 1:4:10 trade

Stay green and good luck
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Weekly_trade.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Weekly_trade_Zoomout.png Size: 80 KB
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  • #99
  • Apr 11, 2017 11:14am Apr 11, 2017 11:14am
EUR/JPY - I love you!

84 pips green and going strong

Japan is beautiful

Daily:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Daily.png Size: 77 KB
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  • #100
  • Apr 11, 2017 11:36am Apr 11, 2017 11:36am
Quoting Teek
EUR/JPY - I love you! 84 pips green and going strong Japan is beautiful Daily: {image}
Great job mate.
Congrats.
/Cheers
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