Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Quoting BenjaminIs

Disliked

Hello KeepCalmfx I will send you an email shortly and bring you up to date. I would appreciate your opinion on my last few posts of yesterday and mainly today when you can. I also would appreciate it for you to do a SCREENSHOT of my 8 open positions. My Equity balance as you will see is $67,917.85 US Dollars. Friday was an amazing Forex trading day as I am sure you realized and you did the right thing in your trading and you also got a sneak preview of where your own skill levels will reach over the next six months. We have a great style of Forex...

Ignored

Good day Benjamin & Everyone else.

Here is the updated screenshot.

I agree with you, it was nice trading with you, it is nice to see your opening positions, where you have entered and exited, the screenshots is also of great help. I learn better this way by visually seeing your positions and the comments that goes along with it. I can't wait to see how my trading will progress in the next 6 months as this is a marathon and I am truly enjoying the process.

Quote:
"In order to buy US Bonds of all types whether 2 Year or 5 Year or 10 Year or 30 Year you NEED US Dollars to buy it. So when you want safety because of the conflict in Syria you park your MONEY in the US Bonds. This leads to the sale of Euro's so that EUR/USD gets weaker as you can see. Then as the money goes OUT of the US Bonds the US Dollar Index gets Stronger and even though there is SUBSTANTIAL GEOPOLITICAL RISK ON AT THE MOMENT the WRONG PERCEPTIONS are that things are under control so Gold sells off partly because of the rise in the US Dollar. As long as the US Equity Markets are RISK ON then USD/JPY will get weaker and as you see it is now at 111.34. THE MONEY IS FLOWING OUT OF THE US BONDS Now (CALL IT ROTATION) as they now FLOW into the US Equities and The INTEREST RATES GO UP !!!

Please make sure you understand this as once you do then you can make substantial profits. There IS NO WAY that any Chart by itself can tell you what I just shared here yet most Retail Forex Traders and many Commercial Forex Traders use their charts or Pivot Points or Supply and Demand and it just cannot work by itself as you can surely see."

"Here is the MAJOR LESSON for today and EVERYDAY that we trade Forex. We always need to know if we have RISK ON or RISK OFF. That could change at the blink of an eye. I will again state for new readers to this thread that we have PERCEPTIONS which is not usually REALITY.

REALITY can be defined as HARD COLD FACTS even if the FACTS are misleading such as the Non Farm Payroll Number of 98,000 today. However the number is still the number for the moment so in normal times that number would mean that the US Economy is not as STRONG as the ADP number of 263,000 suggested on Wednesday. What happened this morning was complete surprise. That number could mean that we would not have an Interest Rate increase sooner than later.

So normally you would expect EUR/USD to get STRONGER and look now EUR/USD is below 106.00

So now you understand more why RISK ON or RISK OFF has to always be on your RADAR SCREEN. Now that the US Dollar Index is UP again you see how Gold has backed off for the moment. Regardless of anything pointed out in this post as to the REASONS for change of direction the main KEY is still and ALWAYS the Money Flow."

Thank you for your explanations and comments, it makes sense and is also very helpful in understanding the reasoning behind the price movement on Friday.

Most of your trades taken is the SPX500 & US30, so by knowing if we have risk on or risk off you can actually only focus on these 2 to make a consistent profit each month. I like the USDJPY more than the SPX500 as the SPX500 moves a lot faster than the USDJPY. So I like trading the US30 & USDJPY most. It is also nice to follow only a few pairs as you get to know them after a while.

So actually we should wait for the stock markets to open each day, to see if we have "risk on" or "risk off" and where the money flow before we enter a trade. So we then actually do not trade before it and only after we have a clear direction, if we have "risk on" we can always wait for profit taking before the market closes on that particular day and place a order when we have "risk off"

It will be interesting to see how the week progress with everything that is going on.

So Monday or for you later today when the markets open we will only manage our already opened trades to close them in profit and don't take new trades/positions before we know the direction after the stock markets has opened and we see how the money starts to flow?

Maybe we will only have real movement after Yellen's speech?

This has been a very busy day for me and most of my time has been spent doing my work and research and after understanding what I read find other associated research articles so that I will be ready to start trading Forex this week.

The THEME of most of my posts today have focused on TRUTH. The truth in the GEOPOLITICAL WORLD and in the FINANCIAL WORLD.

We all live in a fools paradise clearly shown by my posts today. No person here is a fool and my remarks are for anyone that really wants to improve their lives and get involved.

Ed Steer is a sophisticated person and I have learned much from him over the years. Before I linked his article I printed out in color his 41 pages so that I can read and study it carefully in my quiet time. In the meantime I will only include the sections that stay with my theme and agenda for today. I will have my closing thoughts at the end of this article. You do not need to read every word or study every chart. Just go through it quickly as my closing comments hopefully will explain why I shared it here in the course of my day's work.


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1491745559.php

The April Bank Participation Report [BPR] data is extracted directly from the above Commitment of Traders Report. It shows the COMEX futures contracts, both long and short, that are held by all the U.S. and non-U.S. banks as of Tuesdays cut-off. For this one day a month we get to see what the worlds banks are up to in the COMEX futures market, especially in the precious metalsand theyre usually up to quite a bit.


In gold, 5 U.S. banks are net short 70,869 COMEX contracts in the March BPR. In Marchs Bank Participation Report [BPR], that number was 54,899 contracts, so theyve increased their collective short positions by a fairly decent 15,970 contracts during the last month. Three of the five banks would certainly include JPMorgan, HSBC USA and Citigroup. As for who the fourth and fifth banks might beI havent a clue, but I doubt very much if their positions, long or short, would be material.


Also in gold, 32 non-U.S. banks are net short 60,659 COMEX gold contracts, which isnt much per bank. In the March BPR, 31 non-U.S. banks were net short 48,559 COMEX contracts, so the month-over-month change showed an increase of 12,100 contracts. And its still a mystery as to which non-U.S. bank in the Big 5 through 8 category got bailed out of their huge short position in gold in July of last year. Im suspecting it could be Canadas Scotiabank, but I could be wrong about that.


As of this Bank Participation Report, 37 banks are net short 30.8 percent of the entire open interest in gold in the COMEX futures market, which is a fairly large increase from the 23.8 percent they were short in the March BPR.


Heres Nicks chart of the Bank Participation Report for gold going back to 2000. Charts #4 and #5 are the key ones here. Note the blow-out in the short positions of the non-U.S. banks [the blue bars in chart #4] when Scotiabanks COMEX gold positions [both long and short] were outed in October of 2012. Click to Enlarge.
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...08BPR-gold.png
In silver, 5 U.S. banks are net short 35,761 COMEX silver contractsand it was Teds calculation from yesterday that JPMorgan holds around 33,000 of those silver contracts net short on its own which is over 90 percent of the entire net short position shown in this months BPR. This means that the remaining 4 U.S. banks arent net short by much and a couple of them might actually be net long.

In Marchs BPR, the net short position of these five U.S. banks was 31,830 contracts, so theres been an increase of 3,931 contracts in the net short positions of the U.S. banks since then and JPMorgan probably owns all of that increase. As Ted says, JPMorgan is the Big Kahuna in silver as far as the U.S. banking system is concerned. No kidding!


Also in silver, 21 non-U.S. banks are net short 39,248 COMEX contractsand thats up 2,942 contracts from the 36,306 contracts that these same non-U.S. banks held short in the March BPR.

Im still prepared to bet big money that Canadas Scotiabank is the proud owner of the lions share of this short positionsomewhere between 65 and 75 percent of the above number. That most likely means that a number of the remaining 19 non-U.S. banks might actually be net long the COMEX silver market by a bit as well.

But even if they arent, the remaining short positions divided up between these remaining 20 non-U.S. banks, are immaterial and have always been so.

As of this Bank Participation Report, 26 banks are net short 34.2 percent of the entire open interest in the COMEX futures market in silverwhich is down a bit from the 35.4 percent that they were net short in the March BPR with much more than the lions share of that held by only two banksCanadas Scotiabank and JP Morgan.


Heres the BPR chart for silver. Note in Chart #4 the blow-out in the non-U.S. bank short position [blue bars] in October of 2012 when Scotiabank was brought in from the cold. Also note August 2008 when JPMorgan took over the silver short position of Bear Stearnsthe red bars. Its very noticeable in Chart #4and really stands out like the proverbial sore thumb it is in chart #5. Click to enlarge.
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...BPR-silver.png
In platinum, 4 U.S. banks are net short 10,769 COMEX contracts in the April Bank Participation Report. In the March BPR, these same banks were short 14,119 COMEX platinum contracts, so theres been a drop of in the U.S. banks short position of 3,350 contracts from the prior month.

I suspect that, like in silver and palladium, JP Morgan holds virtually all of the platinum short position of the 4 U.S. banks in question.

Also in platinum, 16 non-U.S. banks are net short 8,136 COMEX contracts, which is down 794 contracts from the 8,930 contracts they were net short in the March BPR. Their short positions are most likely immaterial compared to the short positions held by the 5 U.S. banksor, more likely, 1 or 2 U.S. banks.
If there is a large player in platinum among the non-U.S. banks, I wouldnt know which one it is. However Im sure theres at least one large one in this group. The reason I say that is because before mid-2009 when the U.S. banks showed up, the non-U.S. banks were always net long the platinum market by a bitsee the chart belowand now theyre net short.

The remaining 15 non-U.S. banks divided into whatever contracts are left, isnt a lot, unless theyre all operating in collusionwhich I doubt. But from the numbers its easy to see that the platinum price management scheme is an American show as well, with one big non-U.S. bank possibly involved. Scotiabank perhaps.

And as of Aprils Bank Participation Report, 20 banks are net short 29.7 percent of the entire open interest in platinum in the COMEX futures market, which is down from the 33.8 percent they were collectively net short in the March BPR. Click to enlarge.
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...R-platinum.png
In palladium, 4 U.S. banks were net short 6,944 COMEX contracts in the March BPR, which is up 222 contracts from the 6,722 contracts they held net short in the March BPR.

Also in palladium, 14 non-U.S. banks are net short 5,450 COMEX contractswhich is an increase of 1,586 contracts from the 3,864 COMEX contracts that these same banks were short in the March BPR. When you divide up the short positions of the non-U.S. banks more or less equally, theyre mostly immaterial, just like they are in platinum.

But, having said all that, as of this Bank Participation Report, 18 banks are net short 36.6 percent of the entire COMEX open interest in palladium. In Marchs BPR, the worlds banks were net short 37.8 percent.

Heres the palladium BPR chart. You should note that the U.S. banks were almost nowhere to be seen in the COMEX futures market in this metal until the middle of 2007and they became the predominant and controlling factor by the end of Q1 of 2013. But their footprint is much smaller now. However, I would still be prepared to bet big money that, like platinum and silver, JP Morgan holds the vast majority of the U.S. banks short position in this precious metal as well. Click to enlarge.
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...-palladium.png
As I say every month at this time, theres a maximum of three U.S. banksJPMorgan, HSBC USA and Citigroupalong with Canadas Scotiabankthat are the tallest hogs at the precious metal price management trough.


However, its also a fact that one of the non-U.S. banks in the Big 5 through 8 category got bailed out of its COMEX short position in gold in July of last year.


But JP Morgan and Canadas Scotiabank still remain the two largest silver short holders on Planet Earth in the COMEX futures market, with JP Morgan momentarily in the #1 spot. I would suspect that might apply to gold as well, although it may not in the case of Scotiabank, if the non-U.S. bank that got bailed out in July turns out to be them. The jury, as I said further up, is still out on that one.

I have an average number of stories for you today, including several that Ive been saving for the weekend edition.

Comments from Benjaminis: The COMMON THEME in all of these articles is that we live in a fraudulent and evil world. Now that is not necessarily news to anyone here however since we all are trying to make money in the trading of Forex then being IGNORANT or UNINTERESTED of these factors will guarantee that we will lose money trading Forex.

KeepCalmfx had a difficult day on Friday trading Forex and still made all the correct decisions. First of all the learning is being done on a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account. Then as my trades were observed by having direct access to my FXCM UK $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account all my Forex trades were seen and observed in real time. KeepCalmfx doing my SCREENSHOTS is verification of my words and actions. I have nothing to do other than my best to share all my time and effort and not ask for any kind of remuneration nor will I ever as my offer still stands until May 15, 2017 to anyone subscribed to my thread.

I have one more section to link here and I will do it after I post this now at 3:02 PM Eastern Standard Time in Montreal, Quebec,Canada.

CRITICAL READS
March Payrolls Crumble: Only 98,000 Jobs Added Despite Slide in Unemployment Rate
And so the reflation trade is dead once again.
So much for that blockbuster ADP report. As we cautioned previously in our payrolls preview, the big risk to todays payrolls report was to the downside, mostly as a result of the unseasonably cold March weather, and moments ago the BLS confirmed that indeed something snapped in March when only 98K jobs were added, roughly half of the 180K expected. This was the lowest monthly jobs number since May of 2016.


Worse, both prior months were revised lower. The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised down from +238,000 to +216,000, and the change for February was revised down from +235,000 to +219,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 38,000 less than previously reported.


There were no changes to the participation rate, which remained at 63% with the number of people not in the labor force barely changed at 94,213 million.


This 5-chart Zero Hedge item appeared on their website at 8:35 a.m. on Friday morning EDT and it comes to us courtesy of Brad Robertson. Another link to it is here.


U.S. Credit Card Debt Rises Above $1 Trillion For the First Time in a Decade
Unlike last months unexpectedly week consumer credit report, which saw a plunge in revolving, or credit card, debt moments ago the Fed, in its latest G.19 release, announced that there were few surprises in the February report: Total revolving credit rose by $2.9 billion, undoing last months $2.6 billion drop the biggest since 2012 while non-revolving credit increased by $12.3 billion, for a total increase in February consumer credit of $15.2 billion, roughly in line with the $15 billion expected.
However, while in general the data was uneventful, there was one notable milestone: in February, following modest prior revisions, total revolving/credit card debt, has once again risen above the nice round number of $1 trillion for the first time since January 2007where it now joins both auto ($1.1 trillion) and student ($1.4 trillion) loans.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: I refer everyone back to the Frank Trotter article and when he passed over how serious the Student Loan and Auto Industry issues are. WE call that REALITY TRUMPING PERCEPTIONS which is what I teach and why you need to at least understand the differences.


This short Zero Hedge story, also courtesy of Brad Robertson, was posted on their website at 3:16 p.m. EDT on Friday afternoon and another link to it is here.
Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP to Just 0.6%, Lowest in Three Years
Remember when the Fed was data dependent? Well, if the Atlanta Fed is right, Janet Yellen will have hiked the Feds interest rate in a quarter in which GDP has grown by a paltry 0.6%, down from 1.2% as of its latest estimate. If confirmed, this would be the lowest quarterly GDP growth in three years, since Q1 of 2014.


Incidentally, just over two months ago, the same forecast stood at 3.4%, it has since fallen by over 80%.


From the source:
The GDP Now model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.6 percent on April 7, down from 1.2 percent on April 4. The forecast for first-quarter real GDP growth fell 0.4 percentage points after the light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday and 0.2 percentage points after the employment release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau this morning. Since April 4, the forecasts for first-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth have fallen from 1.2 percent and 9.7 percent to 0.6 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively.



And now back to those animal spirited soft surveys which have also been sliding in the past few months.
This brief 1-chart Zero Hedge commentary put in an appearance on their Internet site at 11:41 a.m. EDT on Friday morning and I thank Richard Saler for sending it along. Another link to it is here.


Marc Faber: Co-ordinating Central Bankers Desperate to Keep Colossal Global Debt Bubble Inflated
Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St interviewed returning guest, Editor & Publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, Dr. Marc Faber.


This 33:39 minute audio interview showed up on the youtube.com Internet site on Thursday sometime and I thank Ken Hurt for pointing it out.


Stupid is, as stupid does The Burning Platform
If you prefer fake news, fake data, and a fake narrative about an improving economy and stock market headed to 30,000, dont read this fact based, reality check article. The level of stupidity engulfing the country has reached epic proportions, as the mainstream fake news networks flog bullshit Russian conspiracy stories, knowing at least 50% of the non-thinking iGadget distracted public believes anything they hear on the boob tube.


This stupendous degree of utter stupidity goes to a new level of idiocy when it comes to the stock market. The rigged fleecing machine known as Wall Street has gone into hyper-drive since futures dropped by 700 points on the night of Trumps election. An already extremely overvalued market, as measured by every historically accurate valuation metric, soared by 4,000 points from that futures low over 20% to an all-time high. Despite dozens of warning signs and the experience of two 40% to 50% crashes in the last fifteen years, lemming like investors are confident the future is so bright they gotta wear shades.


The current bull market is the 2nd longest in history at 8 years. In March of 2009, the S&P 500 bottomed at a fitting level for Wall Street of 666. In a shocking coincidence, it bottomed on the same day Bernanke & Geithner forced the FASB to rollover like mangy dogs and stop enforcing mark to market accounting. Amazingly, when Wall Street banks, along with Fannie and Freddie, could value their toxic assets at whatever they chose, profits surged. The market is now 240% higher.


You have the second longest bull market in history, while stock market valuations, as measured by the Shiller PE ratio and every other historically accurate valuation method, are higher than 1929 and 2007, but the Wall Street hype machine and the business network shills adamantly declare this bull has years to go and thousands of points of upside. Greybeards who havent been captured by the Wall Street machine honestly point out the market will deliver 0% returns over the next ten years at these valuations.


You would think the PE ratio of the market rising to historic highs must be due to corporate profits continuing to rise and making investors confident about the future. The narrative being flogged by the fake news networks is a strong economy and surging corporate profits are the reason for all-time high stock prices. The narrative is fake news, as corporate profits have been stagnant for the last five years, as the market has advanced by 70%.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Thanks to our friend wayfarer I have already linked this incredibly accurate and TRUTHFUL ARTICLE here today. So.... you can see that Ed Steer does exactly what he needs to do and that is inform himself before he writes his analysis. That is exactly what I have been doing here for myself and anyone that wants to really learn and make money.


This long, but worthwhile commentary, was posted on theburningplatform.com Internet site on Tuesday and for length reasons, had to wait for my Saturday column. My thanks go out to Jim Rodgers for sharing it with us and another link to it is here.


Jim Rickards: The Financial System Will Go Dark When the Economic System Fails
This long 50:28 minute audio interview was posted on the youtube.com Internet site on Tuesday and I would guess that its pretty much the same message hes been passing around for the last few months. I havent listed to it yet, but expect I will sometime this weekend. I thank Harold Jacobsen for sending it our way.


Italys Target2 Deficit Hits Fresh All Time High, Above 25% of Italian GDP
This morning, the Bank of Italy reported that Italys Target 2 deficit rose to new highs in March at 420bn, from 386bn in February. As a way of comparison, during the peak of the EU Sovereign crisis in 2012 crisis, Italys liabilities stood at Eur 290bn.


As Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital notes, while we are told that record T2 balances are pure accounting values and should be viewed as a benign by-product of the decentralized implementation of the asset purchase program (APP) rather than renewed capital flight, and while Draghi refers to them as a form of solidarity within the European system, in a letter to Italian EU politicians Draghi also maintained that such debts should be settled in full should Italy decide to leave the euro. So, the number matters and represents a liability.


Target II liabilities are now above 25% of GDP In Italy (from 22% in January), and above 30% of GDP in Spain.

This short Zero Hedge piece was posted on their website at 11:27 a.m. on Friday morning EDT and its another contribution from Richard Saler. Another link to it is here.

Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage join chorus of Trump Critics
Marine Le Pen has proved herself to be a woman of principle. It looks increasingly likely that Le Pen may shortly become the next President of France and in that capacity she would ideally want a good relationship with Donald Trump. She has said so.


But Le Pen who has consistently supported the democratic freedoms of the people in Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Lugansk has now come out to condemn Donald Trumps illegal and aggressive missile launch on Syria.


Le Pen has said,
I am a little bit surprised because Mr Trump has said on numerous occasions that the U.S. would no longer be policing the world, and yet, that is exactly what he is doing right now.

Is it too much to ask that we wait for the chemical weapons attack inquiry findings before launching such airstrikes?

It obviously was, dear reader. This commentary showed up on theduran.com Internet site on Friday and another link to it is here. The link to Nigels statements is headlined Nigel Farage SLAMS Donald Trump over Syria. Its from the duran.com website as well and both items are courtesy of Roy Stephens.


Trump-Russia-intelligence story in the New Cold War John Batchelor interviews Stephen F. Cohen
Although the greatest domestic political crisis in American history continues to capture the attention of Batchelor and Cohen this week, serious international events now intrude. The headlines include the Senate Intelligent Committee Hearings stated intention to interview Obamas National Security Advisor, Susan Rice over possible surveillance of President Trump, the sarin gas attack in Syria, NATOs increasing unease with Turkeys President, Erdogans increasing consolidation of despotic power, and finally the death of the Russian poet and dissident, Yevgeny Yevtushenko. Cohen speaks about this poet at great length and great reverence and describes how Russians honour this poet and all its poets and their significance in the history of Russia.


This discussion moves into what it was like to resist the government under the Soviet system and Cohen describes how this moderated over time. Under Stalin, for example, ten million died; under Khrushchev the Terror ended but for the Russian people was still very repressive. Among dissidents there were stages of dissidence that resulted in a known measured response from the state. This all ended, of course, with Gorbachev, General Secretary (then leader designate) who encouraged a kind of freedom of speech. All of this (explained by Cohen in greater detail) led up to Cohens very big question about what it is about how Americans who have free speech are now so complacent about seeing their political institutions destroyed over government opposition to a legally elected president, and how those same rights to speak freely are in threat? This is a wonderful question that should prompt a great deal of discussion but has not


At this point Stephen Cohen introduced a second major narrative in this debacle. The first, of course, is all the hoopla surrounding the Clinton charges that Trump was a Putin stooge. The second major narrative came from Trump with his accusation that Obama and agents of the government had him under surveillance. This appears to have some validity now and is building as a scandal.

But as a sad reprieve to this development comes the St. Petersburg subway bombing and Trump, to his credit, talked to Putin giving official condolences. The fact of this area of history is revealed that Russia has lost more people to terrorist attacks than 911. Cohen states that this sad fact is something (that officially) both countries share as injury a common one.

And to add insult to this St Petersburg wounding is the American mainstream press once more accusing Putin did it (to himself), in other words, a false flag attack. This accusation is as shameless as it is ludicrous. There was also an allegation that the bombing was blow back for his activities in Syria. Cohen is amazed that Americans are so unimaginative to swallow this kind of propaganda and NOT consider that subway bombings could happen to Americans in their own country. I also wonder how difficult it would be to smuggle in sarin gas for use against Americans in their own country. ISIS apparently has a warehouse of the stuff


The last segment deals with the sarin gas attack in Syria. Cohen notes (conservatively) that although Assad may have been responsible, it is very suspicious timing. The attack occurred as both Russia and the Americans are about to attack the ISIS capital, Raqqa, in a cooperative venture, and now this is thrown somewhat into doubt. Cohen notes that after the attack the immediate response was to blame the Assad regime, and also acknowledges that the enemies of Trump (read the Pentagon/CIA, adversaries as a possibility) may be behind the attack to prevent any kind of dtente cooperation between the two powers.

Personally I think something along these lines is likely, as there is no military gain involved for Assad to have done this however, significantly it may have created a breach in cooperation with the military operation to take Raqqa that favours (once again like the earlier gas attack at the beginning of the war) ISIS.

I have yet to see any photos of ISIS casualties or any mention of them in any published reports. Trump will now come under pressure, having said earlier that removing Assad is not a policy goal any longer, to reverse that stance. That would both drive a wedge between Russia and the US forces which are now more substantial in Syria and raise the war risks between the two powers should the US turn on the Syrian army. It is reasonable to assume that some anti-Trump elements have seen this as a possibility, or at least as a means to keep the war alive and the destruction of Syria in play.


This 40-minute audio interview was posted on the audioboom.com Internet site along with the excellent executive summarycourtesy of Larry Galeariswere obviously done before the U.S. cruise missile attack on Syria. So, in some ways, this is already yesterdays news as well, because the whole dynamic is totally different now. Another link to the audio interview is here.


Tensions rise as Russia reinforces Syrian air defences and warns of considerable damage to ties with U.S. after missile strike
Russia has diverted a warship to protect the Syrian coast and vowed to bolster Bashar al-Assads missile defences against more U.S. strikes, risking a confrontation between the former Cold World foes.

The Admiral Grigorevich, a cruise missile-carrying frigate, passed through the Bosporus en-route to Russias Syrian navy base at Tartus on Friday. The Grigorevich, which carries Moscows state-of-the-art Kalibr cruise missiles, was taking part in joint exercises in the Black Sea with the Turkish navy when it was ordered to turn around.


Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, said President Trumps decision to directly target the Syrian regime inflicted further considerable damage to ties between Moscow and Washington.

This step by Washington inflicts considerable damage to U.S.-Russia relations, which are already in a lamentable state, he said.

Mr Peskov said Mr Putin, a staunch ally of the Syrian leader, regarded the US action as aggression against a sovereign nation on a made-up pretext and a cynical attempt to distract the world from civilian deaths in Iraq.


This news item, filed from Beirut, was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site at 9:05 a.m. BST on their Friday morning, which was 4:05 a.m. in Washington EDT plus 5 hours. I thank Roy Stephens for this one and another link to it is here.

There was also a Zero Hedge piece about this as well. Its headlined Russia To Upgrade Syria Air Defenses, Suspends Airspace Pact With U.S. and comes courtesy of Richard Saler.


Poodle Trump Runs With Dogs of War Finian Cunningham
The Deep State establishment or the War Party comprising both Republicans and Democrats in hock to the military-intelligence apparatus thought they would get their way with the election of warmonger Hillary Clinton last November. Alas, the surprise election of Trump to the presidency temporarily upset their militarist agenda.


But the advent of Trump to the White House was only a hitch for the powers-that-be. The relentless Deep State-driven media witch-hunt against Trump over ridiculous allegations of being a Russian puppet has evidently prevailed.


Trump, the self-declared outsider has been forced to prove that he is an insider, an obedient poodle to the American war Rottweiler if he wants to stay in office and see out the next four years without being impeached.


In order to survive the pressure over Russian stooge allegations, Trump is throwing some meat to the U.S. War Party by giving them their long-sought-after direct military intervention in Syria.


Trumps order to blast Syria with 59 cruise missiles is a brazen act of war that makes a mockery of international law. Russia and some other independent nations have denounced the US act of aggression against a sovereign state.


That pretty much sums it up. This commentary/opinion piece by Finian was posted on the sputniknews.com Internet site at 8:04 p.m. Moscow time on their Friday evening, which was 1:04 p.m. in Washington EDT plus 7 hours. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along and another link to it is here.


Doug Casey on the Coming Holy War
Today, we have another brand-new Conversations with Casey to share with you. In the interview below, Doug Casey and I discuss holy wars in Europe.
Im not talking about the Crusades, either. Im talking about a modern-day holy war.


Some folks will think Im crazy for even entertaining this idea. But a few weeks ago, Turkeys foreign minister said that wars of religion are coming to Europe.
Thats a major warning. You have to take it seriously.


So, I recently sat down with Doug to discuss this matter. I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did.
Never a shrinking violet at any time, Doug certainly doesnt hold back here. This interview appeared on the caseyresesearch.com Internet site on Thursday and its certainly worth reading. I thank Kathmandu reader Nitin Agrawal for bringing it to our attention and another link to it is here.


Antarctic Ice Reveals Earths Accelerating Plant Growth
For decades, scientists have been trying to figure out what all the carbon dioxide weve been putting into the atmosphere has been doing to plants. It turns out that the best place to find an answer is where no plants can survive: the icy wastes of Antarctica.

As ice forms in Antarctica, it traps air bubbles. For thousands of years, they have preserved samples of the atmosphere. The levels of one chemical in that mix reveal the global growth of plants at any point in that history.

Its the whole Earth its every plant, said J. Elliott Campbell of the University of California, Merced.

Analyzing the ice, Dr. Campbell and his colleagues have discovered that in the past century, plants have been growing at a rate far faster than at any other time in the past 54,000 years. Writing in the journal Nature, they report that plants are converting 31 percent more carbon dioxide into organic matter than they were before the Industrial Revolution.

This short, but very interesting essay showed up on The New York Times website on Wednesday and its another item that had to wait for my weekend missive. I thank Patricia Caulfield for pointing it out and another link to it is here.

B.C. Filmmaker Frolics With Sea Lions In Adorable Video
For underwater filmmaker Russell Clark, a workplace hazard is an overly friendly sea lion that wants to nibble on him while hes trying to finish a shoot. Yeah, it sounds really rough.

Theres no shyness. Theres no getting to know you. Theyre just curious and they just want to know what you are. You know, are you soft and squishy? Do you want to have a good play with them? Clark said, in an interview with The Huffington Post Canada.

Theyre just like theyre like puppy dogs. Theyre like a herd of 2,000-pound puppy dogs that just run over to you and then jump all over you.

This 5:03 minute video clip appeared on the huffingtonpost.ca website back on March 28. It was supposed to be in last Saturdays column, but I just ran out of space and time. Its the first video clip after the infomerical at the beginning and I thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us and FULL SCREEN viewing is a must! Another link to it is here.


Chris Powell: Why invest in gold miners if they wont defend themselves?
Remarks by Chris Powell
Secretary/Treasurer, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Mining Investment Asia Conference, Singapore
Thursday, March 30, 2017
Mines and Money Asia Conference, Hong Kong
Friday, April 7, 2017

Since we gathered here a year ago, gold and silver market manipulation has burst into the open and become undeniable. Even some mainstream financial news organizations have had to report it, if begrudgingly and only briefly. But the gold and silver mining industry itself keeps running away from it.

Fortunately, this conference allows it to be discussed anyway.

The biggest development in gold and silver market manipulation in the last year has been Deutsche Banks admission that its traders conspired with traders from other big investment banks to suppress gold and silver futures prices.

This admission by Deutsche Bank came as part of its response to class-action antitrust lawsuits brought against it and its co-conspirators in U.S. District Court in New York. Deutsche Bank has provided the plaintiffs with transcripts of electronic messages between the traders showing them coordinating their trades to smash gold and silver prices down. The bank has agreed to pay nearly $100 million to the plaintiffs to settle the cases. The bank also has agreed to provide more evidence against the other conspiring banks.


I must admit that I havent had the time to read this as of yet. Chris slid it into my in-box just before midnight Denver time on Thursday and I was pedal to the metal with my Friday column at that moment, so it, like a few others posted above, will have to wait its turn this weekend. Another link to it is here.


The PHOTOS and the FUNNIES
Todays critter is a sturgeon, of which there are 22 different species and they are hold-overs from the Triassic era245-208 million years ago. Theyre living fossilslike alligators or crocodiles. As you can tell, they can grow quite large and the big ones are well over 1,000 kilograms/2,200 pounds and in the 6 meter/21 foot length range. The click to enlarge feature only helps on the two photos.
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...1-1024x565.jpg
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...408Photo-4.jpg
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...8Cartoon-4.jpg
The WRAP
Todays pop blast from the past is more country than pop, but thats OK by me. In most ways, this Canadian artist was a one-big hit wonder and I suppose thats true to a certain extentbut what a hit it was back in 1979. Ive posted it before, but its been years. The link is here.

Todays classical blast from the past is another one that Ive posted before, but it was years ago as well. Its been called the great fall upwards and for good reason. Its Beethovens Violin Concerto in D major, Op. 61 which he composed 1806.

Its first performance by Franz Clement was unsuccessful and for some decades the work languished in obscurity, until revived in 1844 by Joseph Joachim. Since then it has become one of the best-known violin concertos.

Its certainly #1 on my list of violin concertos and heres the incomparable Itzhak Perlman doing the honours, with the equally incomparable Daniel Barenboim as conductor. The recording is from 1986but that matters not. The link is here.



Let me make it easy for those who refuse to acknowledge the silver manipulation. Simply explain why 8 traders, mostly domestic and foreign banks, would hold short the equivalent of 40% of the worlds annual productionand a third of all the silver bullion that existsat prices below the average primary cost of production and nearly 70% below the price levels of four years ago.

How could such a concentrated short position be explained in legitimate terms and what would be its purpose? What effect would such a large short position have on the price of any commodity and how do you see it being resolved if it wasnt permanent?


I dont expect any serious answers to such questions, as it appears to be easier to malign the questioner as a conspiracy theorist instead, but I know these questions have never been addressed in a straightforward manner by anyone who denies the silver manipulation. Silver analyst Ted Butler: 07 February 2015


I posted the above quote in my Thursday column as well. But after Fridays COT Report and yesterdays price action, I thought it worth repeating.

It was a wild one yesterday. The powers-that-be were obviously already at battle stations before the first cruise missile hit the ground in Syria early on their Friday morning. And they didnt stop there, as they had the job numbers at 8:30 a.m. in New York to deal with during the same business day and they crushed those rallies with ruthless abandon as well.


But then came the engineered price declines in the last hour of trading before the COMEX close, with the one in silver being the stand-out of them all. The possibility certainly existed [and Im speculating here] that a large short holder in silverone of the 5 through 8 traders, or one of the smaller of the Big 4 traders was going to have a margin call issue if silver closed at its current price at the time. So a decision was made to do the dirty and the results speak for themselves. It was so blatant and in-your-face, that there had to be a reason for it.


Ted mentioned the fact that the sell-off in silver probably had more volume attached to it once the price was broken below its 200-day moving average and Im certainly not about to dispute that. He figures that from a COMEX futures position perspective, it might have been a wash for silver on Friday, which may have been the whole premise behind that huge sell-off just before the COMEX close.


And he also pointed out that the sell-off in gold wasnt anywhere near enough to negate the huge long positions placed by the Managed Money traders on Friday and he mentioned in passing a 30-40,000 contract deterioration in the commercial net short position in gold yesterday after all was said and done. Ill certainly be interested in his thoughts on this now that hes had a chance to sleep on it as he likes to say.


Here are the 6-month charts for all four precious metals, plus copper, showing the price activity up to and including the COMEX close yesterday. And because the low ticks for gold, platinum and palladium didnt occur until after the that close, they dont show up on the charts.
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...month-gold.png
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...nth-silver.png
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...h-platinum.png
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...-palladium.png
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com...h-copper-1.png
Not only were the Plunge Protection Team working over the precious metals, they were actively involved in the stock market and the currencies and anything else they though worth propping up.


COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Now KeepCalmfx you can see clearly why Friday was a CODE RED 10 Forex Trading day and Monday will be a CODE RED 8 Forex trading day. As for your remarks about Yellen the main FOCUS on Monday and Tuesday are the GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES. The FED is stuck now and we get closer to the TICKING TIME BOMB on April 28, 2017 which is the TRILLION DOLLAR DEBT CEILING. I will add some of Jim Rickards comments at the end of this post on that MAJOR FINANCIAL ISSUE.

Its a mess out there and Im not just talking about whats happening in the precious metals in general, or the COMEX silver market in particular.


This Syria thingy isnt about to go away anytime soon and Im fearful of where it will lead.

The only cool heads out there are Putin and Lavrov & Co. The U.S. Deep State/War Machine are the rabid pit bulls of the world right now and as I said in yesterdays column, if you arent terrified of where this may end up, you obviously dont understand the seriousness of the situation.


COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: That is exactly what I have been telling my Family and Friends even though we are all helpless at the moment to do anything except watch and it is my OPINION that RUSSIA and CHINA DO NOT WANT WAR.


I must admit that Trump has been a huge disappointment and its obvious from from the Le Pen and Farage comments, that many people feel the same wayincluding a large swath of those that supported Trump and voted for him. He hasnt been in office for even close to his first 100 days and he already appears to be Deep State road kill, with four more years still left in his presidency. It aint looking good.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Once Russia and Tillerson of the USA meet on Tuesday and President Trump is really aware of the TRUTH of Russia's position that we will see if President Donald John Trump has the guts and integrity of President Reagan and President John Fitzgerald Kennedy.

From Ed Steer:
My comments about a current passport and money and precious metals outside your country of residenceparticularly the fine folks who live in the U.S.Astill stands. And if youre in a position to pull up stakes at any time, what are you waiting for?


COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Canada has the second largest land mass in the World after Russia and we still have plenty of room here and we are Politically Stable and have great Natural Resources and out banking system is stable. So.... Come On Down (SMILE)

How did it come to this?


See you on Tuesday.
Ed
https://www.edsteergoldandsilver.com/


Comments from Benjaminis: I decided to give you the other side of the coin when it comes to Jim Rickards. Regardless of his real agenda there is zero doubt that he is better informed than most in the world. He has incredible credentials and YES he sells information while we give it away for free here. So....Here is one of the comments made by one of the people who watched the video.

Blue Eyes5 days ago
This guy [ James Rickards ] is everywhere, last few days. Selling his books, and spreading propaganda of war by using fear. Then James who gives briefings to the Bilderberg Group... who has political, and people from the finance, academia, industry and the media elites, which their main goal is one-world government. Really! WTF! This guy is doing his part, for them, plus others. James is burning the candle at both ends. What is it, with the talk of war, from the finance corporations/ Feds/ IMF/ so on... when did they become the boss? Wait, they have always been the boss with the purse strings, that can dictate agendas and steer any narrative they what, incredible

Final Comment from Benjamiis: This opinion has a problem with getting his first name correct. Jim Rickards is the name for the record and should I use WTF (Smile)

https://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content.../MSA040917.pdf

EXTRAORDINARY ARTICLE THAT I JUST PRINTED OUT !!!

Ten Pages - Read It On Your Own If You Care Too... From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

SNIPPET:
In our Forex 2017 report issued December 28th 2016, we stated that in the process of identifying a major trend change, “ we define a trend change level, a ‘trigger level,’ as it were. Until that trigger is elected, our assessment should be treated a ‘tentative’ .”

The charts on the left show the terrain as of the 2016 close. Price beating its chest in new marginal highs, with momentum still well above trend structure, but also clearly not making new highs (a non-confirmation). We picked 99 as the key number for 2017 because it would be at that number or lower (on a monthly close) that the momentum trend structure would be closed below. And so the Dollar closed out 2016 at 102.21, looking like a champ (at least on price).

The same charts (on right) bring us up to date and clearly demonstrate the Dollar’s respect for MSA’s number.

In the first days of 2017, price nudged out a new high and then immediately began a drop of over 4.5 points. The February low was 99.23—just in front of our number. The Dollar then quickly rampaged back up on the year by early March. Then came the rollover into late March, which for all of an hour or two traded below 99 (98.85), but never closed even a day at or below 99. Now price is back up over 101, wiping its brow again.

Our 99 number was and is pivotal, as the action of the Dollar Index has now amply demonstrated. With that confidence at our back, we argue that this market becomes a bear if it triggers our number on a monthly closing basis. We’ve since added an intra-month trade to 98 as sufficient negative evidence, without waiting for a monthly close.

The major forex markets are beasts that remain eerily dormant. If the Dollar triggers our number it’s wake-up time . When breakage occurs, expect increased volatility from that arena and trend changes that move hard, with wave effects in other markets (gold and silver among others, debt included).

Until then MSA is a quiet observer, but with confidence in its specified number.
-


Benjaminis

http://usawatchdog.com/first-ever-gl...ing-clif-high/

Home Political Analysis First Ever Global Government Crash Coming-Clif High


First Ever Global Government Crash Coming-Clif High

By Greg Hunter On April 9, 2017 In Political Analysis
http://usawatchdog.com/wp-content/up...gh-300x198.pngBy Greg Hunters USAWatchdog.com Early Sunday Release


Internet data mining expert Clif High uses what he calls predictive linguistics to spot trends and make predictions for future events. In his latest in-depth report, High sees a huge calamity coming for humanity. Clif High explains, There is all kinds of data for money and lack of money and lack of funding and all kinds of emotions around this.

There are hints in the data that something huge is coming for August and September that is being exposed by the language now. I think its a bond crash or not a bond crash because I dont know how that works. Its not a stock market crash. The data I am looking at now says the stock market is not meaningful.

We may lose 50 cents on every dollar in the stock market in just a few days, but its meaningless. It wont make any difference at all to anybody according to what the data is showing me because the real crisis is in the crash of government.



High goes on to explain, The emotions at the moment are projecting a crash of the ability of the state to function. . . . We have the projection that there is going to be some sort of big government crash. It concerns funding, interruption or something. . . . We have something akin to a definition change relative to bonds. . . .

One way to think about this is there is going to be a human collective or re-understanding, or new understanding, about the whole bond market as we go forward in August, September and October. This is going to cause huge disruptions for governments, which basically depends on the bonds as its source of funds.

I dont know what that definition is going to mean, but the way the language is presenting itself, its very much like the same language that appeared in newspapers ahead of the Bretton Woods conference. . . .

At that time, a bunch of countries got together around WWII and talked about how to deal with gold, money and the dollar after the war was over. . . . We have that same kind of language now relative to the bonds. . . .This redefinition is going to cause real problems relative to governments. If I had to guess, I dont think we will have a stock market crash, but a government crash or Fed crash or bank crash.

I dont think a stock market crash will be meaningful because by the time it crashes, nobody will care because before we get there, the Fed will crash. The Fed is the market.

Maybe this is why Clif High is also seeing language that prices are going up for things like Bitcoin, gold and silver. Clif is seeing the term gold fever repeatedly. He is also seeing the term silver rush for the white metal. High contends, The amount of pressure they have had to use to push down on gold and silver prices means when it starts to go up, there will be a bit of a flutter.

Then, they are going to push down harder, and then its just going to blow. The language is suggesting that this is really happening around silver. High also says at some point in the not so distant future, prices will be rising so fast that no one will be selling gold and silver.


High says another thing he sees is chaos in politics and the economy, and he contends this is all part of the first ever global government crash.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Clif High of HalfPastHuman.com.
(There is much more in the in-depth video interview.)

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS:

I bought the 42 page PDF file report for $15 US Dollars and will read it very carefully tonight over supper. The thoughts and views of Clif High match my long term view however my observations are based on looking into the future without the written explanations in hand so I am looking forward to relaxing (SMILE) yes I enjoy building my knowledge base. I will share anything more specific than his interview which I also listened to earlier today.

Comments From Benjaminis: My day is done on my Notebook Computer. Thanks for your help today . KeepCalmfx

Anyone posting here after my post now I will reply sometime on Monday.

P.S. I just read a very informative article from Wolf Street that I want to share before Asia opens on the topic of EUR/USD. However first a very good daily chart on US Dollar Index that I share here from the EUR/USD thread.

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...9&d=1491772965

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/09/thr...-euros-future/

Three More Reasons to Worry about the Euro’s Future


by Don Quijones • Apr 9, 2017 •


From the “Doom Loop” to the Black Hole.


By Don Quijones, Spain & Mexico, editor at WOLF STREET.


“Despite uncertainty over Brexit — formally triggered last week by prime minister Theresa May — central bankers from around the world see the UK as a safer prospect for their reserve investments than the Eurozone, a new poll reveals.” So the Financial Times.


At first whiff, this may smell counter intuitive. After all, it’s the UK that’s supposed to be in the weaker negotiating position over Brexit terms. It also risks losing a sizable chunk of its core industry, finance. Yet according to a survey of reserve managers at 80 central banks, who together are responsible for investments worth almost €6 trillion, the stability of the monetary union is their greatest fear for 2017.


They have good reasons to worry. Here are three of them:

1. The Doom Loop is Back in All Its Glory.
In fact, it never went away; it was just squeezed into temporary irrelevance by the ECB’s mass purchase of Eurozone sovereign bonds. The biggest beneficiaries are Italy and Spain where banks’ balance sheets are overflowing with bonds of their individual governments — all considered “risk free” for regulatory reporting.

In 2012, Spanish banks held a staggering 32% of Spain’s national debt (excluding regional and local debt). At the end of 2016, that figure had shrunk to 22.7%, or €168 billion. This scheme has kept the doom loop in some form of check, but shoveling as much peripheral sovereign debt as possible from peripheral banks onto the ECB’s books is not a sustainable long-term solution — not when the ECB’s balance has already crossed the €4-trillion mark. That’s the equivalent of 38% of the Eurozone’s GDP, well in excess of the Fed’s 23.7%.


The moment the asset purchases slow, however, the Doom Loop kicks in again, as has happened in the last few months. After the ECB announced that it was paring down its asset purchases from €80 billion a month to €60 billion a month, the purchase by Italian and Spanish banks of their respective national bonds began ticking up again.





When rates begin rising, those same banks will begin bleeding losses from their current holdings of government debt. As a new report by Spanish consultancy firm Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI) warns, over 70% of the fixed income assets held on the balance sheets of Spain’s biggest banks are prone to price variations, and in the worst case, the solvency of some banks could be called into question.

In Italy, as many as one-quarter of the banks are already verging on insolvency. French banks have very limited exposure to French government debt but they are estimated to hold over €250 billion of Italian bonds.


2. Rising Imbalances.
The financial imbalances in the Eurozone are growing and in some cases have exceeded the crisis levels hit in 2012. The best indicator for this is Target2, standing for Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement System, which, month after month, has tracked the accelerating capital flight from the region’s periphery (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland) to the core (Germany, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg).


In March, Italy’s Target2-deficit — the total amount the Bank of Italy owes other national central banks in the Eurozone (mainly Germany’s) — widened by €34 billion to a fresh record of €420 billion. At the height of the sovereign debt crisis in 2012, it was just €290 billion. In Spain things are not much better: in February its central bank owed €361 billion, €25 billion more than at the height of its banking crisis in 2012.


The ECB asserts that record T2 balances are pure accounting values and should be viewed as a benign by-product of the decentralized implementation of QE rather than renewed capital flight. Draghi refers to them even as a form of solidarity within the European system — a way for the core to help fund the periphery.

But in a recent letter to Italian EU politicians the same Draghi maintained that such debts should be settled in full should Italy decide to leave the euro. With Target II liabilities of close to 25% of GDP in Italy and above 30% of GDP in Spain, this poses a double-barreled question: how, and in what currency?


3. A Big (and Growing) Black Hole in EU Finances
If the first two problems are primarily monetary in nature and are exclusive to the Eurozone, the third is purely fiscal and affects all EU countries. At the heart of Brussels’ finances is a growing black hole. At the end of last year it reached €238 billion, up from €99 billion in 2002.

This is the so-called reste liquider, or RAL, which is a stock of commitments at the end of each year that have been made in annual EU budgets, but which are deferred for payment in later budgets.

Even under normal situation, this would be cause for concern. But the EU’s current fiscal situation is anything but normal: the bloc is in the process of losing one of its biggest net providers of funds, the UK. As the German economist Hans Werner Sinn recently put it, “Because the UK is so large, its withdrawal is economically equivalent to the withdrawal of 20 of the smallest EU countries – 20 out of 28, which we have in total.”


Other EU countries will have to pick up the slack. Gnther Oettinger, the German commissioner, said as much in February. Those countries include Italy, whose public debt amounts to 133% of GDP, among the highest in the world, and it hasn’t even started bailing out its banks yet.

In other words, the people in Italy may have to pay more taxes to Brussels while suffering more austerity, in the process becoming even more disenchanted with the euro project, hardly a strong foundation for a long-term future. By Don Quijones.


For the Bundesbank, the War on Cash is a war on personal freedom and choice. Read… War on Cash Puts ECB, EU on Collision Course with Germany

Good Day KeepCalmfx

I thank you for this post. Did you get my email of yesterday ?

I did a tremendous amount of reading over the weekend. I read the fascinating 42 page PDF file of Clif High and listened to the Video.

Of all the articles read it was the one wayfarer found that I received later in the day that was the most important read of my weekend and probably the year. In the end the TRUTH is revealed however if you have a view of the truth before the masses realize it then you surely have an EDGE and a confirmation of your views.

I am going to put my post here of yesterday and suggest that it be read very carefully as it really puts things in a proper prospective. Here it is !!!

 

1. Post #2,854
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Merge
5. Edit
6. Apr 9, 12:31pm (16 hr ago) Apr 9, 12:31pm (16 hr ago)

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,254 Posts | Online Now

Cleanup Report: Post #2,854 by BenjaminIs

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...s-stupid-does/

STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES

If you prefer fake news, fake data, and a fake narrative about an improving economy and stock market headed to 30,000, dont read this fact based, reality check article. The level of stupidity engulfing the country has reached epic proportions, as the mainstream fake news networks flog bullshit Russian conspiracy stories, knowing at least 50% of the non-thinking iGadget distracted public believes anything they hear on the boob tube.


This stupendous degree of utter stupidity goes to a new level of idiocy when it comes to the stock market. The rigged fleecing machine known as Wall Street has gone into hyper-drive since futures dropped by 700 points on the night of Trumps election. An already extremely overvalued market, as measured by every historically accurate valuation metric, soared by 4,000 points from that futures low over 20% to an all-time high. Despite dozens of warning signs and the experience of two 40% to 50% crashes in the last fifteen years, lemming like investors are confident the future is so bright they gotta wear shades.


The current bull market is the 2nd longest in history at 8 years. In March of 2009, the S&P 500 bottomed at a fitting level for Wall Street of 666. In a shocking coincidence, it bottomed on the same day Bernanke & Geithner forced the FASB to rollover like mangy dogs and stop enforcing mark to market accounting.

Amazingly, when Wall Street banks, along with Fannie and Freddie, could value their toxic assets at whatever they chose, profits surged. The market is now 240% higher.


You have the second longest bull market in history, while stock market valuations, as measured by the Shiller PE ratio and every other historically accurate valuation method, are higher than 1929 and 2007, but the Wall Street hype machine and the business network shills adamantly declare this bull has years to go and thousands of points of upside.

Greybeards who havent been captured by the Wall Street machine honestly point out the market will deliver 0% returns over the next ten years at these valuations. Eric Peters words of wisdom will fall on deaf ears:
The longer a market trends lower, or higher, the more confident people become that tomorrow will look like today. And what they forget is that the single most important consideration in investing is your starting point.
http://www.multpl.com/chart/shiller-...ef57a82208.png
You would think the PE ratio of the market rising to historic highs must be due to corporate profits continuing to rise and making investors confident about the future. The narrative being flogged by the fake news networks is a strong economy and surging corporate profits are the reason for all-time high stock prices.

The narrative is fake news, as corporate profits have been stagnant for the last five years, as the market has advanced by 70%.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0331_wolf2.png
In March of 2009, at the height of the financial crisis, Fed overnight interest rates were at an emergency level of .25%. Eight years later after a tremendous economic recovery, Fed overnight interest rates are still at an emergency level of .75%. Ten year Treasuries were 2.9% in March 2009 and are currently 2.3%. If this was a true economic recovery, would rates be at these levels?


The truth is, this entire bull market has been generated through financial engineering. A critical thinking individual, which eliminates all CNBC bimbos/talking heads and Ivy League educated Federal Reserve schmucks, might ask how reported corporate earnings per share since 2009 have risen by 221% when corporate revenues have only risen by 28%. Thats quite a feat creating fake earnings without increasing revenue. Its easy when you implement a three pronged scheme to manufacture a phony economic and stock market recovery.
http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-c...cks-032417.png
Step one was to temporarily repeal FASB Rule 157 in March 2009 so banks could value their toxic real estate assets at whatever price they chose. Mark to fantasy versus mark to market allowed the criminal Wall Street banks to generate billions in fake profits. Step two was for the Federal Reserve to buy $3 trillion of toxic worthless assets from the criminal Wall Street banks at 100 cents on the dollar and stick them on their own insolvent balance sheet.

Step three was breathing life into failing corporations with unnecessarily low interest rates. The Feds 0% interest rates allowed Wall Street banks to generate billions in risk free profits by depositing reserves at the Fed. ZIRP also allowed insolvent financial firms, underwater real estate developers and zombie retailers to refinance their massive levels of debt at ridiculously low interest rates eliminating the market clearing creative destruction that happens in free markets.

Corporations also used off-balance sheet shenanigans to suppress leverage levels and boost earnings.

Lastly, S&P 500 companies embraced the benefits of globalization by off-shoring millions of jobs to slave labor camps in the Far East, drastically reducing their cost structures and boosting earnings. These same corporations used the BLS fake inflation data as the reason to suppress wage increases for their employees at a 2% level, further boosting earnings. As a humorous aside, executive pay and bonuses advanced at double digit rates.


The following chart sheds some light on this fundamentally driven bull market.
http://9640-presscdn-0-28.pagely.net...tock-Index.png
S&P 500 companies have bought back $500 billion in stock in the last two years, and $2.1 trillion since 2010.

Until recently, individual investors have been net sellers for the last eight years. Pension funds have not been net buyers. That means the entire stock market surge has been reliant upon corporations buying their own stock and Wall Street institutions using their HFT machines to rig the system. And this entire scheme has been enabled by the Federal Reserves crisis level low interest rates for the last eight years.


After youve run out of accounting gimmicks, refinanced all your debt, and outsourced as many jobs to the third world as possible, how else can you make your earnings per share rise? Why invest your money in capital, innovation, research or human resources to grow your sales, when you can just buy back your own stock and goose earnings per share the easy way.

Goosing EPS by reducing the number of shares makes it easier for the Wall Street fleecing machine to pump stocks and it makes it easier for corporate CEOs and their executive teams to earn their million dollar bonuses while stiffing their employees with 2% raises.


But it gets better. Since 2009 over $1 trillion of debt was taken on by S&P 500 companies just to buyback their own stock. The narrative about corporations being flush with cash is complete bullshit. In the last two years, the trend of issuing debt to buyback stock has accelerated to an all-time high of 30%. Think about that for one moment. With stock market valuations at all-time highs, the brilliant Ivy League educated MBA CEOs of the largest companies in the world have issued $300 billion of debt in the last two years to buyback their stock at all-time highs.
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/.../v2/800x-1.png
The stupid, it burns. This ridiculous miss-allocation of corporate funds was enabled by the Fed keeping interest rates so low for so long. The Fed is always the culprit in the boom and bust cycles that plague our rigged economic system. The big banks and corporations always get bailed out when their reckless financial schemes blow up, while the average American gets screwed by inflation, stagnant wages, and higher taxes. Retail CEOs were buying back their stock over the last eight years and are now declaring bankruptcy and closing stores at a record pace. Maybe they could have used the cash used on buybacks to sustain their businesses.

Corporate debt levels are at all-time highs despite a supposed eight year economic recovery. The debt was used to buyback stock rather than invest in the business. Revenues have been stagnant and earnings are now falling. Interest rates are being ratcheted up by the Fed, and the economy is falling into recession. With debt levels already high and interest rates rising, the buyback machine is going to shut off. Without corporate buybacks what will sustain the stock market rise?

The trillion dollars of stock bought at record high prices with debt will be vaporized in the next inevitable stock market crash. But the debt will remain. And the CEOs will plead ignorance and say who could have known as they cash their multi-million dollar paychecks. The Wall Street shysters know their only hope now is to lure the stupid money into the market as they head for the exits. Thats why their hype machine has been in overdrive with the Snapchat IPO and gushing articles about Teslas Model 3 revolutionizing the auto industry. Its enough to make a sane person gag.


And its working. The little guy has been hesitant to dip their toe back in the water after seeing 50% of their net worth obliterated in 2000/2001 and then again in 2008/2009. It seems the election of Donald trump and his promises of tax cuts, walls, infrastructure and fixing healthcare have enthused the masses into investing in the stock market at its all-time high. I guess they forgot how much it hurt when they were clubbed over the head eight years ago. Well, they are going to relearn that lesson again.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...11_flow1_0.jpg
As the stupid money goes in, the smart money heads for the exits. The perfect example of how American corporations are led by greedy, short-term oriented, unprincipled, dishonest, corrupt egomaniacs can be seen in their personal actions versus the their corporate mandates. As Wall Street touts stocks to the little guy and corporate executives commit billions of shareholder dollars towards buying back their stock, corporate executives are cashing in their stock options and selling like there is no tomorrow. What a despicable display of self-interest.



If all is well and the market is headed higher then why are corporate executives buying their own firms shares at the slowest pace in at least 29 years.

According to the Washington Service, there were a total of 279 insider buyers in January, the lowest since 1988. Moreover, the number of sellers has also grown in recent months, pushing the ratio of buyers to sellers in February to its lowest since 1988 as well. If the market isnt overvalued, then why are corporate executives, who know their business prospects better than anyone, selling their stocks at a far greater rate than buying? Its because they are going to let the ignorant investing masses be left holding the bag when the shit hits the fan.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...r%20Buys_0.JPG
Human beings are so predictable en mass that its almost humorous to watch them get it good and hard once again. They are like Wile Coyote thinking they will surely catch the Road Runner this time by using the same old methods that have failed a thousand times before.

Their confidence rises just before they go over the cliff once again. Weve reached that point again for the third time in the last seventeen years. Consumer confidence is at a sixteen year high (seems odd considering retailers are closing 3,500 stores in the next few months). The previous peaks were in May 2000 and July 2007. We all know what happened next. But it will surely be different this time. Jim Cramer tells me so.

https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=383
So all the pieces are in place for an epic stock market crash, along with a real estate and debt market crash as an added kicker.

The arrogant, over-confident thirty year old MBA investment geniuses and their super computer algorithms are sure they are smarter than the next guy and will get out before its too late. They think there will be a clear event which will signal its time to go. The markets are so overvalued, so dependent on the Fed, and so propped up by massive amounts of leverage, they will topple under their own weight at any moment. Central bankers, Wall Street bankers, politicians, pundits, experts, and the stupid lemmings will be shocked by this truly unexpected development.

Data reported in the last week will be the gasoline thrown on the fire when this market starts to burn, turning it into a towering inferno.

Margin debt has reached an all-time high, as supremely confident investors (aka speculators) know the trend is their friend. They have borrowed over $500 billion against their stock portfolios to buy some more Snapchat, Tesla, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Apple. The previous peaks of $400 billion to $425 billion in 2000 and 2007 have been far surpassed. What happened after those previous peaks? I forget. Im sure this time will be different. A CNBC bimbo spokesmodel told me so.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...9854b341dc.png
Lance Roberts, an honest, analytical, critical thinking investment manager describes what will happen, because it always does:
Investors can leverage their existing portfolios and increase buying power to participate in rising markets. While this time could certainly be different, the reality is that leverage of this magnitude is gasoline waiting on a match.


When an event eventually occurs, it creates a rush to liquidate holdings. The subsequent decline in prices eventually reaches a point which triggers an initial round of margin calls. Since margin debt is a function of the value of the underlying collateral, the forced sale of assets will reduce the value of the collateral further triggering further margin calls. Those margin calls will trigger more selling forcing more margin calls, so forth and so on.


I watched The Big Short a couple weeks ago for the second time. The lessons from that movie will never grow old. Greed drives human beings to do reckless things in the pursuit of riches. Men think in a herd like manner and go mad in pursuit of their delusional aspirations of wealth and power. Those who see the irrationality and stupidity of the herd are scorned and ridiculed until they are ultimately proven right. Delusions die hard, but they do die as reality always wins.
http://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/...l-Meltdown.jpg
We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first. Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds

Comments from Benjaminis: Thanks very much wayfarer for pointing out this perfect article on REALITY.

From the start of my thread on December 3, 2016 , I have constantly talked about REALITY VS PERCEPTIONS and to be a good Forex Trader at a minimum you need to be aware of it. wayfarer uses another language and hardly posts here yet he understood the important aspects of the article so now I have read it and understood it and so can you.

Perhaps now it is clearer why Trade Plan One is SHORT US 30 and Trade Plan Two is SHORT SPX500 and Trade Plan Three is SHORT USD/JPY.

Enjoy your Sunday and get ready for the open in Wellington , New Zealand in a few hours.

1. Post #2,797
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Apr 6, 2017 7:23am Apr 6, 2017 7:23am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,255 Posts | Online Now

Cleanup Report: Post #2,797 by BenjaminIs

Thank You very much KeepCalmfx

You have invested much of your time here and you have learned how to trade Forex and be successful. As I have same since I started the thread on December 3, 2016 the KEY to SUCCESS was a combination of many things. First of course is the Forex Trader.

However for that to happen as I had asked there was an investment required. That investment was at least one hour a day of your time. Doing that without finding excuses not to do it shows DISCIPLINE. Of course without the DESIRE to learn DISCIPLINE will not follow.

Then we come to the Mentor and the student. The Teacher is only as good as the Students and if the Students cannot also help the Teacher to learn then there is no communication between the two.

That is why I wanted to have Forex Retail Traders interested in doing things differently with an open mind was to try to post here with questions and their comments. This has happened and has been positive.

I do not intend to trade today and tomorrow I will trade and run an open session live so that I can explain the unique characteristics of trading NFP day.

I have already done that a few times and what you will see and learn is how things change as the MONEY FLOWS around. Then you most likely will se things change around to a different direction and in the middle of all this we have MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS in Florida between China and the USA.


Thanks everyone for your interest and participation.


Benjaminis

1. Post #2,805
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Edited at 9:04am Apr 7, 2017 7:07am | Edited at 9:04am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,256 Posts | Online Now

Cleanup Report: Post #2,805 by BenjaminIs

Good Forex Day Ladies and Gentleman

Please come back to this post as I will keep updating it during the morning. We have a very unique situation this morning.

Leading the way is GEOPOLITICAL because of the following factors.

(1) The strike by the USA on Syria.
(2) The early reaction by Russia calling for an emergency hearing at the UN.
(3) The meeting this morning with China
(4) The effect of the strike on China and how North Korea will react.

Then we have Non Farm Payroll at 8:30 AM Eastern Standard Time.

We also have the vote for the next Supreme Court Justice scheduled for 11:30 AM today.

I will start of by linking the Finviz 5 minute chart of US 30 (Dow 30)

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

Look at how it reacted after the Airstrike occurred around 10 PM Eastern Standard Time and it's reaction as of now.

These charts will update as we go through the morning based on FACTS (NFP) and reactions to this along with the GEOPOLITICAL issues and that is why we also keep a close eye on US Dollar Index and Gold.

Here is the 5 minute chart on the US Dollar Index and you can see that MONEY FLOWED into the US Dollar Index.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

Now we turn to Gold and the 5 minute chart on Gold.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

Notice how both Gold and the US Dollar Index went up at the same time and this is because at times like this the immediate HUMAN REACTION is for safety of Assets so the strength goes to the present Reserve Currency of the World , the US Dollar and into Gold.

Now I turn to the next safe haven currency and that is USD/JPY.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

We can see here that since the US 30 actually went UP that money DID NOT FLOW into safety of the USD/JPY and you can see the CORRELATION between the Dow and USD/JPY. This was of course a GEOPOLITICAL event so now we turn our attention to Non Farm Payroll which will move the markets in a more predictable way.

I am also linking the 5 minute chart of EUR/USD so we can watch the reaction after NFP.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

You can see how it got weaker as the US Dollar got stronger short term.

I point out that by coming back to this post all the charts will update as MONEY FLOWS and of course you can change the Time Frame of the charts.

I now will put more FOCUS on the US Bonds led by the 10 Year US Bonds. The 5 minute chart of the 10 Year US Bonds is now linked here.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

Notice how MONEY initially FLOWED into the 10 Year US Bonds for SAFETY and of course the inverse happens with the YIELD as the Yield goes down. You can also see the IMMEDIATE HUMAN REACTION as once the 10 Year US Bonds went to 125.60 then it quickly reversed and went down to 125.30 so in effect YIELDS and Interest Rates went Up as the US Bonds sold back down. Are there any questions ? It is important that you understand this.

The US 30 (Dow 30) is now in positive as the ATTENTION TURNS to NFP as we will now do.

I wanted to deal with what has happened in LIVE TIME so that you would have an EXCELLENT PICTURE and understanding of how events (GEOPOLITICAL) affect the Asset Classes.

The time is now 7:05 AM Eastern Standard Time and I will update this post.

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT WE COMMUNICATE and that you ask me questions or perhaps point out something to me if you see something that I am not aware of or missed. So for the moment we cannot say if we have RISK OFF or RISK ON.

Good Day again and the news on Non Farm Payroll will be out in 45 minutes from now. The time is now 7:45 AM Eastern Standard Time here in Montreal.

Here is a PDF file which includes a good report and you should read through it quickly as I will do after I link it here.

http://www.eurexchange.com/blob/2977...k_20170407.pdf

I will post again at 8:00 AM and PLEASE do not be shy. Please post your questions or thoughts or anything that you care to share as we wait for Non Farm Payroll in 45 minutes.

The time is now 8:00 AM and I have started to update my post. Here is what I suggest that you do and that is do what I just did. Go quickly through all the charts and that takes less than a minute so that you can see any changes in the various Asset Classes. Everything is quiet and stable until we see the NFP which is estimated at 175,000 with the UI Rate projected to be 4.7 which we ALL know is a NONSENSE FAKE NUMBER because all the workers no longer even counted which now is over 75 Million people

The time is now 8:30 AM and the numbers are 98,000 WOW !!!

I will come back with my ANALYSIS around 9:00 AM Eastern Standard Time. Please post any questions that you have. Thank You...

The time is now 9:01 AM Eastern Standard Time in Montreal, Quebec, Canada and I will post my thoughts that I have posted already on another post so that all my Forex trading views and trades all are on this one post.

I have put on three positions as of now. I have gone SHORT one position of US 30 and SHORT one position of SPX500 and SHORT one position of USD/JPY.


I have given all of you here a excellent view and understanding in live time. There are fortunes to be made if and when you understand what I teach here however this is not a matter that can be learned in a few minutes. I have invested an incredible amount of time here as has KeepCalmfx and what my goal here now is to build up material for the new corporate website.

All questions and comments are welcome. It is hard to know if you understand me unless I have feedback.

Thank You....

ON EDIT .... Thank You Very Much KeepCalmfx for your daily charts and I point out to you and Roger SK that when you look at your charts and my post with the LIVE CHARTS from Finviz you can see the PERFECT CORRELATION.

We also see the MONEY FLOW TRADING METHOD work perfectly.

I put on only one position of each of the three Currency CFD pairs just to be in the markets since my initial expectation is for the markets to go down with RISK OFF however we may have other factors at work here as I have said earlier since the Markets open only at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time when the REAL MONEY FLOW STARTS. I am therefore waiting until 9:30 AM and of course 10:00 AM (Option Expiry) and the Europe close for the weekend at 11:30 AM and of course ALL the GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. I will copy and paste this into my trading post of this morning so that we will have a record of what happened and we can refer back to it whenever we need to teach and show what you need to know and do. A POST for the AGES (SMILE)




Benjaminis

1

1. Post #2,828
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Apr 7, 2017 1:42pm Apr 7, 2017 1:42pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,257 Posts | Online Now

Cleanup Report: Post #2,828 by BenjaminIs

Hello KeepCalmfx

I know that you are not online at the moment however I want to share my thoughts with you on what has happened already today. It has been a fascinating day however I want to bottom line it for you and everyone else reading my comments.

Here is the MAJOR LESSON for today and EVERYDAY that we trade Forex. We always need to know if we have RISK ON or RISK OFF. That could change at the blink of an eye. I will again state for new readers to this thread that we have PERCEPTIONS which is not usually REALITY.

REALITY can be defined as HARD COLD FACTS even if the FACTS are misleading such as the Non Farm Payroll Number of 98,000 today. However the number is still the number for the moment so in normal times that number would mean that the US Economy is not as STRONG as the ADP number of 263,000 suggested on Wednesday. What happened this morning was complete surprise. That number could mean that we would not have an Interest Rate increase sooner than later.

So normally you would expect EUR/USD to get STRONGER and look now EUR/USD is below 106.00

So now you understand more why RISK ON or RISK OFF has to always be on your RADAR SCREEN. Now that the US Dollar Index is UP again you see how Gold has backed off for the moment. Regardless of anything pointed out in this post as to the REASONS for change of direction the main KEY is still and ALWAYS the Money Flow.

I will end this post and go to another important topic while waiting for feedback.

Thank You


Benjaminis

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1491595200.php

-- Published: Friday, 7 April 2017

Scattered recent analysis has centered upon the Gold Standard and its viability within the global financial system. The topic is certainly very blurred and at times confusing. Consider a recent article by a competent analyst Charles Hugh Smith of the site OfTwoMinds on the practicality of gold used as a standard. The article is entitled “The Problem With Gold-Backed Currencies” (which is found HERE and also on Lew Rockwell site HERE). He makes several points, many good ones. In the Jackass opinion, his analysis avoids many potential solution features, is premature on focus of the currency (and not trade), and is unfortunately backwards in the logic. The main criticism to put on the work is that he confuses the extreme difficulties created from decades of fiat currencies, with the supposed problems of installation of gold-backed currency. The entire article is not well developed, seems sketchy, and misses numerous very important features which are being considered. He does put many critical issues on the table, valuable for discussion. He offers no solution to his stated problems. In modern parlance, the logic put forth would indicate that since a heroin addict has so much difficulty with kicking the deadly habit, ravaged by delirious tremens, beset by extreme health problems, that one should conclude movement toward a clean sober life would have problems and simply would not work. Thus the backwards logic. Unfortunately, CHSmith produces straw dogs in the face of absent solutions. Let us examine the points made.

The Gold Standard is near perfect, provides sound money, and requires modern tweaking to make it work. The transition period will not be six months, but more like six years. The transition is possible, is workable, but with tremendous disruption and arduous adjustment. The victim nations would be many, but they hold much of the banking and military power. The Global Currency RESET is essentially referred to, which will render deadbeat economic nations as extremely vulnerable to systemic breakdown. The definition of deadbeat is tied to huge trade deficits and oversized current account deficits, coupled by extremely unmanageable national debt. They tend to have bloated welfare states and diminished industry. The United States qualifies as the most at risk, the most out of balance, and the worst from a debt and an industrial standpoint.

The Gold Standard a la Bretton Woods was broken illicitly, illegally, and brutally to begin an American Dollar Hegemony in 1971. Here 46 years later, the distortions and imbalances are horrific. As forecasted in 2005 within the Hat Trick Letter, the King Dollar is being defended finally by war in the open. Obviously it is veiled cover for blocking the Russian supply chain and recently the Iran supply chain. The USEconomy operates on an invalid credit card, usurping the global currency reserve. The USFed monetary policy of Quantitative Easing has introduced a hyper-inflation injection into the global banking reserve capital foundation, for six years. The rot from wrecked money and rigged financial markets has forced an Eastern solution. It will be centered on gold, first in trade, then in banking, and finally in currency. CHSmith focuses on the last plank, rather than the requisite first two planks, in error for the sequence. Examine his main points, then dissect them, with a viable solution presented on the table. He cites the challenges of a gold-backed currency, not the problems which make it unworkable. He offers no path toward solution, whereas the Jackass will do precisely that.

DIFFICULT ADJUSTMENT PERIOD
The alternative to installing the Gold Standard is not acceptable, not tenable, and not workable. It is the present course, toward a global systemic breakdown and wider war. It would be better to adjust in a rabid industrialization process and a nasty wave of debt defaults, which might be more orderly than imagined, if begun. The move toward gold reserves would have to be quick in transition. The constructive path toward solution will be difficult and requires creative thought. The entire consensus must discard Keynesian lunacy. Gold is the arbiter of fairness, equitability, balance, and forces a just system. The Gold Standard is arch-enemy of the globalist fascist state. It is possible that Gold smothers war. It puts war and dominance in check, while putting industry and trade in the forefront while seeking equilibrium.

The initial focus should be on the Gold Trade Note, which is the fiat armor piercing weapon, to be used for trade payment. It is coming into view, with its key components. The Eastern nations and Emerging Market nations have the trade advantage, from actual stronger industrial bases. They can direct traffic with a reform in trade payments. Charles Hugh Smith has a focus on the gold-backed currency that is premature. One does not put the crown on the new king before he is identified, then walks to the throne and sits in it. Focus should be on the Gold Trade Note as the trade mechanism. It kills fiat paper. Gold is urgently required as solution, in order to bring order, to seek balance, and to achieve peace on the globe.

CURRENCY CONVERTIBLE TO GOLD
CHSmith states that for any currency to be truly backed by gold, it must be convertible to gold. He claims this line of thinking is disconnected from the real-world mechanisms of capital flows, and the way money is created in our financial system. Such is not true. He claims the trade deficits from the 1970 decade would have forced the USGovt to forfeit its gold, leaving nothing to back the USDollar. The US Empire would have collapsed decades ago if it had not abandoned the Gold Standard. This is untrue and total nonsense. The USEconomy would have been forced, due to French President deGaulle demands, to fortify its industrial base immediately and to reduce its federal deficits. It would have forced Washington to reform quickly and immediately in a national emergency setting.

CHSmith offers no solutions. Even when deficits exist, a gold cover clause could provide a solution to avoid full drainage of gold reserves. The underlying basis is for a Gold Standard in the currency. For instance, a 5% cover clause would entitle a nation with a $1 billion surplus with the US to claim $50 million worth of gold. Such is hardly a ruinous proposition, since it comes to about 1.25 tons gold. The message would be delivered and heard, to rectify the imbalance quickly. This is a simple feedback mechanism, and not a disaster. Such mechanisms are not only healthy, but urgently needed. Nations could alter their cover clauses to weaken their currencies. Moving to a 10% or 20% cover clause would be viable for a nation with a sizeable trade surplus. Moving to a 3% cover clause would be necessary and prudent for a nation with a decent trade deficit. The US might attempt a 1% cover clause, given a return to a gold-backed USDollar, since ridiculously insolvent, deep in debt, and in far reach of remedy.

IMBALANCE WITH DEBT ACCUMULATION
The implication is for the Gold Standard to be evident in a hard currency, based in sound money, since convertible to gold itself. With the checks & balances gone, the US has therefore been permitted to accumulate a vast pile of debt. The USGovt debt has recently exceeded $20 trillion, which is roughly worth 500,000 tons gold bullion at current prices. Clearly conditions have gone way out of kilter. The debt doubled under the Obama Admin, for which he awarded himself a medal. To call him a charlatan is a grotesque under-statement, when marionette is more apt. The debt is unmanageable, seen in the graphic in the form of stacked $100 bills. Actually, the stacks shown make a tractor trailer truck seem small. The value of the massive structure is only $15 trillion. Football fields are included for better reference.


http://goldseek.com/news/GoldenJackass/2017/4-7gj.jpg

Harken back to the early 1970 decade, when the USGovt under the Nixon Admin broke the Gold Standard by force. No nation except for the United Kingdom seemed to approve the gesture steeped in hegemony. Later the French President Valerie Giscard d’Estaing called the US usurped global currency reserve an exorbitant privilege. The unspoken element contributing to the fast rise in the USGovt deficits was the costly Vietnam War. Smith wrote, “And any nation running large trade deficits will soon empty its gold reserves as international holders of the currency choose to convert their currency into gold, which is exactly what happened in the late 1960s in the United States.” The vicious meat grinder war was the cause of the first couple $trillion in debt, with hidden motive to advance the military industrial base in the US, and to capture the Cambodian Triangle for heroin. Again, the author abhors the corrective process which is essential within any healthy system seeking balance.

Indirectly, CHSmith tacitly defends the war spending and overlooks the industrial base issue entirely. If in 1971, the United States had forfeited $5 billion in gold to France and had set a precedent, the US nation would have immediately gone on an emergency status and rebuilt its industry, reduced its welfare system, and cut back in a big way its military budget (hardly defense). The trade deficit was far less than a quarter of what it is now, standing at $550 billion in the last fiscal year. Now the task is greater, given the lack of effort toward rebalance. War has become a constant feature. As George Orwell stated, “The war is not meant to be won; it is meant to be continuous.” He was the elite spokesman at the time, without such recognition. CHSmith cites a symptom of absent accountability as a justification for no accountability, an absurd premise.

The USGovt embarked on an additional decade of Star Wars military spending during the Reagan Admin, expanded its welfare state, and accelerated the trend of outsourcing industry to the Pacific Rim and later to Emerging Market nations. All these three movements proved to be disastrous. The Gold Standard imposition would have halted all three movements in their tracks. But the hegemon turned to financial engineering, raised Alan Greenspan to a semi-god, continued to shed industry, and relied upon financial asset bubbles to sustain the economies in an historical absurdity. All the US-based asset bubbles have burst, the wreckage clear, but the US has seen fit to re-expand the same asset bubbles. No discipline has been forced, since no officially recognized arbiter exists. The Gold Standard would have prevented financial engineering from going amok in the US, with an exclamation point.

CREDIT CREATION RUSE
CHSmith did not address any corrective mechanisms. He mentioned credit creation as being potentially inhibited in the modern era. The credit creation was a monster that fed the financial asset bubbles. It should not have been permitted to flow so freely in one carry trade after another, in unfettered debt, in unchecked military budgets, and recently in the uncontrollable Medicare/Medicaid bills. The entire underwriting process is totally out of control, and in dire need of a fair arbiter. Witness more debt blisters and festering bubbles in the car sector, the home sector, and the student sector, even still the energy sector from the shale fiasco. The entire credit engine has had no control mechanism for 30 years. Its wreckage is not justification to avoid a Gold Standard. It is precisely the reason for the Gold Standard, as firm arbiter. The author has it backwards.

EXPANDED MONEY SUPPLY
A simple point must be made, often cited by other competent analysts. In the last several years, the money supply for the USDollar has expanded something like five-fold since the Lehman failure event. The official suppressed Gold price has retreated from its $1900 high. Such dual paths are opposite to what should normally occur. The bogus argument has been put forth that there is not enough gold to back the monetary system. Although CHSmith does not make this errant point, it is a surprise to the Jackass that he did not. Actually, the corrective mechanism would call for the Gold price to be five times higher, like around $6000 per ounce, in response to a massive increase in the recent money supply. There is plenty of gold to cover the monetary system, but the gold must be repriced an order of magnitude higher. Gold must be priced much higher, in accordance to the money growth. In future years, with still more legitimate monetary expansion, the gold cover clause could be an indispensable tool. This is utterly basic as a concept, and shatters easily the insufficiency argument.

DISTRACTION OF TRIFFIN PARADOX
The Triffin Paradox presents challenges for a reserve currency, rather than justify that the Gold Standard does not work. No nation should use as its domestic currency a global reserve asset. To do so it absurdly destructive. Triffin explains that a reserve currency has two distinct sets of users: domestic users and global users. Each has different needs, so a built-in conflict exists between the two sets of users. Global users of the USDollar need enormous quantities of dollars to use as reserves, to pay debts denominated in USD and to facilitate international trade. The only way the issuing nation can provide enough currency to meet this global demand is to run large, permanent trade deficits. It would in effect be exporting dollars in exchange for goods and services. The pressure would be run massive deficits in order to supply the world with adequate reserves that fill its banking system foundation. This is entirely backwards. Therefore, no nation should use the global reserve as domestic currency, such as the United States has done with horrendous abuse. Gold bullion would be much better in the function of global reserve asset type. Triffin’s Paradox is not a paradox at all. It is instead an argument for the Gold Standard, and never for a nation to use the global reserve asset in its domestic economy. CHSmith misses the argument entirely.

The absurdity of the fiat currency system is exemplified in two respects. First, the USDollar is implicitly backed by USTreasury Bonds, which is USGovt debt. For debt to serve as a basis for banking systems is backwards and insane. It guarantees a systemic failure, like what is seen today. It invites a calamity to the entire supply chains of the global economy. Implicitly CHSmith tacitly defends the fiat currency system since fixing its outcome is intractable and extraordinarily difficult. Again, the upside-down nature of the system, and its extreme challenges to correct it, is not justification for continuing the current broken system. A Gold Standard system that is right-side up is preferable, even if difficult to install, even tumultuous and initially disorderly. Secondly, Germany has in the past couple years displayed a flaw in the system. It has been running surpluses. The result has been inadequate debt with which to supply the bond market, and hence negative interest rates are the rule of the day. This is upside down. No nation should be subjected to the absurdity of negative rates when economically strong with a firm industrial base. The US floods the global financial system with debt, even fake production of debt via derivatives, in order to maintain its control and power. Its equilibrium is false and untenable.

CRITICAL MASS & NON-RESERVE CURRENCY
For a Gold Standard to succeed, the Jackass has preached that the collection of gold-backed currencies must have critical mass. Giving a single hypothetical example of Slobovia and the quatloo currency is errant and off the mark. No single nation, or even a group of a few nations, can succeed in setting a Gold Standard, since the forces are too great to absorb and to handle in the healthy feedback mechanisms. The important concept is critical mass, which is exactly what the Eurasian Trade Zone is attempting to achieve. They are gathering nations toward participation in a better system. They are building the non-USD platforms, building the non-USD market mechanisms, soon to reveal the gold role. They recently signed up Turkey as a potential gold provider for the all-important Gold Trade Note. It will be used in trade payment, kicking to the curb the USTreasury Bill.

Imagine the chaos when the Saudis sell gold to China, then to most of Asia, in RMB terms and later in Gold Trade Notes. When a much larger organization of nations, like the assembled mass from the Eurasian Trade Zone, the BRICS nations, with Emerging Market nations in tow, agree upon the Gold Standard in trade payments and in banking reserves and in currency formation, they have force. If they command the majority of trade, then they dictate the rules. The combined GDP of the stated group has been attracting attention, as they are forming the critical mass. Already Russia and China are in possession of at least 60,000 tons of gold. So they will soon make the rules.

ERRANT CONCLUSIONS
Examine the final conclusion made by CHSmith. “In a true gold-backed currency, every new $1 in currency must be backed by the addition of $1 of gold to reserves. If the gold supply remains constant but the supply of currency constantly expands, the value measured in gold of the outstanding currency declines accordingly. Any currency is only truly backed by gold if it is convertible to gold. Why hold a gold-backed currency that can be diluted 10-fold overnight by the issuing government/bank? Any nation issuing a gold-backed currency cannot control the global price of gold, and so that nation's currency is hostage to fluctuations beyond its control. If the issuing nation sets a peg to gold, that peg is subject to the whims of the central bank and state. In other words, the peg is simply another flavor of fiat currency. Simply put, there is no way to back a reserve currency or a fractional reserve banking system with gold. It is easy to say that a world with very little credit would be a good world, but it would be a world with limited debt-based consumption, i.e. a world with little growth. And without growth, the system implodes.” Almost nothing above is logical, factual, or correct. Cover them one by one.

The gold cover clause could render $1 billion dollars backed by $50 million in gold, or 1.25 tons gold bullion. The policy would be very manageable, and also flexible with an adaptable cover clause percentage. Export powers would have a higher cover clause, while deficit nations would have a lower percentage. The concept is already being circulated.

No nation would need to control the price of gold. This is backwards. The gold arbiter would control the value of competing currencies. Several gold-backed currencies would be on the table, varying in gold reserves, in surplus versus deficit status for their economies, in commodity & resource reserves, in wisdom of national leadership, in cooperative trade policy, even in military aggression, and others factors. Nations would not be hostage to gold price fluctuations. Gold is constant, while currencies would vary in value depending upon inherent conditions. The control of the individual currency would be the main focus, as CHSmith has it backwards.

The final point made by CHSmith is also errant. He claims that a currency pegged to gold is subject to whims of the central bank and state. The peg would not be simply another flavor of fiat currency, hardly the case. It would be part of a set of measures by which to gauge the value of a gold-backed currency. Make the setting of the gold-backed Arab Dinar stupid, and that currency would falter versus a prudently arranged gold-backed Nordic Euro. The fading Arab oil monarchies would have to compete against the stalwart wise Germans. If the Arabs fail in the competition within the gold arena, they will lose their gold, truckload by truckload. They would be forced to make adjustments, under the guise of the feedback mechanisms. Instead, central banks would be held accountable. This is requisite after the extreme abuses since QE began in the West in year 2012.

CHSmith reveals his shortcomings by jumping to the conclusion that in his opinion, no way exists to back a reserve currency with gold. The fact stands that he does not comprehend the mechanisms for creating the Gold Standard and implementing its complex systems. Limited credit creation is precisely part of the upcoming solution. Credit abuse has become the standard, which must be remedied quickly. He implicitly gives tacit approval of the absurd cancerous situation with credit fueling rigged financial markets, credit behind the interest rate derivative machinery, credit trying to hold together the comatose energy sector, credit fueling the nutty car loan business, credit fueling the dead corpse of the housing market, credit funding the ridiculous stock buybacks by major corporations, credit fueling the algorithm high frequency stock trading, and credit behind the war machine. Let us leave narcotics aside for another day and another article, in its new role in guerrilla war. These credit abuses must be brought into check. The Gold Standard is exactly what is required. Furthermore, the extreme deficit spending of most nations is often linked with badly imbalanced welfare states and unjustified military spending. Credit must be directed with urgency toward reindustrialization on the grand scale, and capital formation with business creation on the local level. It seems the advanced nations have lost their way, no longer competent in capitalism and business creation, only in socialist taxation of business and oppressive insurance systems. The Gold Standard can be used to effectively rebuild industry with proper incentives.

The Gold Standard requires defense and advocates. The Jackass stands by the standard, and defends it. Some innovative thought is required. Always, logic might be used properly, and not in any backward manner to dismiss gold from its proper role. Most economic thinking in the modern society today is atrocious and heretic, in defense of a profoundly corrupt system. Even within the gold community, much thinking is flawed and lacks logic.

NEW SCHEISS DOLLAR & GOLD TRADE STANDARD
In time, expect an eventual refusal by Eastern producing nations to accept USTreasury Bills in payment for trade. The United States Govt cannot continue on numerous glaring fronts of gross negligence and major violations. These violations have prompted the BRICS & Alliance nations to hasten their development of diverse non-USD platforms toward the goal of displacing the USDollar while at the same time to take steps toward the return of the Gold Standard.

The New Scheiss Dollar will arrive in order to assure continued import supply to the USEconomy. It will be given a 30% devaluation out of the gate, then many more devaluations of similar variety. The New Dollar will fail all foreign and Eastern scrutiny. The USGovt will be forced to react to USTBill rejection at the ports. The US must accommodate with the New Scheiss Dollar in order to assure import supply, and to alleviate the many stalemates to come. The United States finds itself on the slippery slope that leads to the Third World, a Jackass forecast that has been presented since Lehman fell (better described as killed by JPM and GSax). The only apparent alternative is for the United States Govt to lease a large amount of gold bullion (like 10,000 tons) from China in order to properly launch a gold-backed currency. The annual trade deficit would immediately render the entire batch of gold at risk of forfeit. Any such lease would open the gates for a generation of commercial colonization, but actual progress in returning capitalism to the United States. The cost would be supply shortages to the USEconomy, a result of enormous export increases to China. Even if the USGovt can secure such a large hoard of gold, like from Bush Family and Rubin Clan seizures of stolen Fort Knox gold reserves, the United States will be vulnerable from a $550 billion annual trade deficit. Its settlement after one year would exhaust all 10,000 tons, since at $1300/oz, such gold tonnage would be worth $420 billion. The United States is truly trapped in an economic insolvency situation, with inadequate industry and a huge unresolved trade deficit.

Failure to produce a legitimate bonafide gold-backed currency, together with an adequate industrial base, would mean the United States will be confronted with a real big nasty currency crisis. Any new currency, even with gold backing, would be subjected to a series of devaluations due to the enormous trade deficit. The result would be heavy powerful painful price inflation from the import front. The effect would be to reverse a generation of exported inflation by the United States. The entire USEconomy would go into a downward spiral with higher prices, supply shortages, and social disorder. However, the rising prices would come from the currency crisis, and not so much from the hyper monetary inflation. That flood of $trillions has been effectively firewalled off. During the crisis that comes, the gold price will find its true proper value between $5000 and $10,000 per ounce. Then later, it goes higher, as it seeks equilibrium in a new world where gold serves as the global arbiter in trade and banking and currencies.

HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

home: Golden Jackass website
subscribe: Hat Trick Letter
Jim Willie CB, editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER”

Use the above link to subscribe to the research reports, which include coverage of critically important factors at work during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. The historically unprecedented ongoing collapse has been created by compromised central bankers and inept economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system, urgently pushed after the removed anchor of money to gold. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

I am going to use this post to make a very definitive and strong point about charts of any kind and the bias that they create and the success of scalpers to make profits however with there being an issue with this style of trading in my opinion and I will explain why.

I would really appreciate an open and frank discussion on this topic.

I start with the following link on how not to look for a trade and why, so have a look.



Comments from Benjaminis: I direct my comments to everyone, however since KeepCalmfx has the best understanding of the different model that we use to teach Forex traders how to become Forex professionals and earn a substantial income from your Forex trading business. I ask for comments from KeepCalmfx to explain the differences and the positive and the negative aspects of both.

It all depends on what your mindset is and what your goals are.

Now I turn to trader - Dale and his excellent results...

http://trader-dale.com/recent-forex-trades/


Comments from Benjaminis: Here is some of his comments that I will address after we read it.

Recent Forex Trades


07/04/2017

7.4.2017 – 11 wins in a row!

In today’s Asian session there were 2 winning trades. With these two there are 11 winning trades in a row!

USD/JPY 110.50 long
This level was hit shortly after there was unexpected news that US military launched missiles at Syria (asian session). I had a limit order set there because I was asleep. Because of this extremely strong move my limit order was filled 5 pips lower! For this reason my position ended up not in +10 pipsbut in +15 pips profit! Even if you got filled for the right price you would still have +10 pips profit. In situations like these you really appreciate if you have a solid broker.
http://trader-dale.com/wp-content/up...razy-trade.png
Here is a screenshot from my trading platform (1 minute chart):
http://trader-dale.com/wp-content/up...-jpy-limit.png

Comments from Benjaminis: So we can see that the aim of this method of trading is to make many small profits of 10 to 15 PIPS basically trading within the range of the movements of in this case USD/JPY. This is not about this style being wrong however it is about the object of the Forex trading and the downside risks and upside rewards.

Then I turn to a professional who has his own thread and is a professional currency trader.

 

1. Post 23,520
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Last Post: Apr 10, 9:34am (13 min ago)

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...r133347_39.gif T@rantula
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,108 Posts | Online Now

I turn my focus to the excellent EUR/USD chart done by T@rantula.

Here is his chart on EUR/USD

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...4&d=1491831275

EUR/USD Bullish Divergence at Strong Support

Now I post his comments about his charts.

The EUR/USD has formed a bullish divergence at the confluence - POC. The POC 1.0535-60 ( historical buyers, M L3, W L3, W L4, bullish divergence) is at the strong support indicated by camarilla pivot points. If 1.0500 stays strong the POC could reject the price towards 1.0618, 1.0650 and 1.0700. Have in mind that these are counter trend movements and the trend is still bearish. However due to a potential reversal at POC, the pair could reject towards above mentioned levels.



Here is a 5 Minute Finviz chart on EUR/USD.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

Have a look at 5 minute chart of US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

You can see the CORRELATION mainly because Euro makes up 57.6% of US Dollar Index although at times the US Dollar Index is affected by other Money Flow factors usually when we have RISK ON.

Now here is a Daily chart on USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

Here now is a Daily chart on US 30 (DJIA) Dow 30

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=YM

You can see the almost perfect CORRELATION between US 30 and USD/JPY.

HOWEVER at times there are other FACTORS at PLAY with USD/JPY as you can see in the 5 minute chart of USD/JPY.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

What you see that has the US 30 keeps moving higher this morning USD/JPY is actually getting STRONGER as it moves down and one of the reasons might be the SAFE HAVEN FACTOR because of the US Warships heading to North Korea in advance of the G7 meeting tomorrow of the Foreign Ministers.

Now I will point out the MAJOR DIFFERENCE between the types of trading shown here and our Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management.

It was my NATURE that created my MONEY FLOW TRADING. The reasons are that I HATE to lose at anything that I do and if I cannot find a way to trade Forex with LOGIC and Common Sense and make substantial profits then why would I want to just gamble my time and efforts and my money to GUARANTEE that I will become one of the 95% of Retail and many Professional Forex traders that form this group ?

So... Why not trade in such a way that keeps the RISK and the GAMBLING out of the Equation ? You know my answer of course by seeing my results that I have demonstrated here since I started the thread on December 3, 2016.

I will wait for some input from KeepCalmfx or anyone else that cares to enter into the discussion before I make some additional points.

Thank You and have a positive Forex trading day.


Benjaminis

On Edit at 11:22 AM Eastern Standard Time. I just came across this post on another thread and since it is on my topic I will share it here.

 

1. Forthebulls
2. | Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Member | 33 Posts

Quoting jmezz
{quote} Interesting. Would you be willing to share your spreadsheet? You can PM me if you'd like. Am most interested in getting an average for consolidation periods on the tick chart.
Jmezz/Johny8984 and all other interested crude oil traders:

I'll post it for you guys now since Damian is going fishing today.

So when I first got into Forex I cam across Steve Mauro's system. He's a FX day trader who charges $5000 for his material. I didn't pay this, I came across his material hosted for free on a SEO forum of all places. Basically Steve's premise is that you can make a ton of money by being aware of when price swings occur and how long they typically last... then he adds a bunch more BS with moving averages and indicators so he can justify charging $5 grand for it...

Although, I came across the idea a long time ago, I didn't actually start to make use of it until recently with futures. I guess I had neglected it before when I was a lazy trader and a losing trader. Then I realized, if you want to make the money you have to put in the work and understand the market that you trade.

Now the sheet is not pretty or complicated, it was just thrown together as a self study draft for the 15 minute swing chart. Also, most of my focus was on recording Leg 1 and Leg 2 since those are the time periods I have the time to trade; I threw in data for Leg 3... but it's kind of like a pitchfork, everyone might interpret it a bit differently since Leg 3 and the following consolidation would usually cover all afternoon and all of Asia open.
Attached File
https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ttach/xlsx.gif CL Research.xlsx 14 KB | 15 downloads

Good day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Here are the charts.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Congress Heads Out For Vacation As Government Shutdown Looms
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Apr 10, 2017 9:42 AM



Members of Congress have headed back to their districts for a two-week recess after one of the most bitterly divided sessions in history that culminated with Republicans launching the 'nuclear option' to confirm Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch. Unfortunately, upon their return to Washington DC, they will have just 5 days to unveil, debate and pass a spending bill, or trigger a government shutdown on April 28.


And while government shut downs have happened before with little economic consequence, as Goldman warns, failure to pass a budget this time around could have broader implications regarding the Trump administration's ability to implement some of his key policy initiatives like tax reform and healthcare...issues which have clearly helped boost equity markets to all-time highs.


Congressional appropriations expire April 28. If Congress does not pass an extension, the federal government will partially shut down. The economic consequences of a short shutdown are minor, since lost federal pay is usually made up retroactively and government procurement and private sector activity would be largely unaffected.

However, a shutdown would send another signal to markets that Republicans may not be able to enact their agenda, lowering expectations for tax reform and an infrastructure program.

We believe Congress is more likely to meet the deadline, but see a one in three chance of a shutdown.

The “freedom caucus” in the House may be unwilling to vote for a spending bill, denying Republicans a majority without Democratic votes. However, Democrats might be unwilling to provide those votes as they often have in the past, in light of the decision to change Senate rules to confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court over Democratic opposition.

That said, there is not yet a clear issue Democrats are likely to point to in defense of a shutdown, as Republicans did in the 2013 shutdown when they demanded that Obamacare be defunded. If such an issue emerges—Republican leaders have already indicated they plan to keep funding for the border wall out of the bill to avoid such an issue—then the odds of a shutdown would rise considerably.


While the media will undoubtedly go berserk if a Government shut down actually happens, they're hardly unprecedented. Per the chart below from Goldman, there have been 11 such shutdowns since 1977, varying in duration up to 21 days.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20Downs_0.JPG

Of course, the likelihood of any spending bill getting passed with bipartisan support will ultimately depend on how aggressive the Trump administration wants to be in demanding funding for the border wall, as both Chuck Schumer and in the Senate and Nancy Pelosi in the House have confirmed that Democrats will oppose any bill that includes funding for that purpose. Per Bloomberg:
But there are several wild cards that could derail things, the biggest one being Trump. The president wants Congress to begin spending money on a border wall -- his signature campaign promise -- even though Democrats are mostly opposed and Republican leaders are in no hurry.

The White House won’t say whether Trump will threaten to veto the spending bill if the border money isn’t included. Trump has asked Congress for $33 billion in extra defense and border wall funding, paired with $18 billion in cuts to domestic programs.

Republicans have rejected the domestic cuts, but it’s unclear how the wall funding will be handled.

"The only thing that could derail that progress is the White House insisting on their extraneous demands, which would meet bipartisan opposition,” said Matt House, a spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi warned Thursday that including funding for the border wall will almost certainly cause a loss of Democratic support. “I would hope that they wouldn’t try that,” she said, adding, “the American people don’t even support it.”


Meanwhile, Republicans will undoubtedly continue their civil war with the Freedom Caucus potentially looking to oppose any new spending bill that omits funding for some of Trump's top priorities. House Republicans “have differences of opinion. And they aren’t just political differences, they are policy differences,” said Republican Senator Rob Portman of Ohio. “They’re going to have a tough time coming together without some Democratic votes, and I think that’s the acknowledgment."

Conservatives, however, are expecting to see some of Trump’s priorities reflected in the measure, something that Democrats are unlikely to go along with.

“I think that what you will see, you’ll see funding in there for the wall, I think you will see funding in there for better enforcement of sanctuary cities, and I think you will see a plus-up on military,” Meadows predicted. “I think that most people will vote for that, it will go to the Senate, it will get stripped out and then we will have a hard decision to be made in four days.”

Other Republicans say it’s time for the GOP to show it can govern.

“We’re going to do what it takes to get get the comity back to the Senate,” said Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican.


And while we can't be sure how this will all play out, we're almost certain that any outcome will be positive for U.S. equities... and while they remain ignorantly blissful for now, the T-Bill market is anything but...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0_debt_1_0.jpg

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: I found out this morning that they need 60 Votes in the Senate which means that the Democrats could BLOCK and force a Government SHUTDOWN which would perfectly fit their agenda and do not take lightly the Freedom Party wing of the Republican Party in the Senate. We have not even factored in the DIFFICULT GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES of this week.

Dear KeepCalmfx

I would appreciate it very much when you have the time to do another SCREENSHOT and I am finished Forex Trading for today.

I needed to have very STRONG DISCIPLINE today and stick to my Plan even if we had RISK OFF for awhile. Whatever the reason for us now having RISK ON it is all good.

Plan your Forex Trade and Trade your Plan.

When it works it feels great.

Also if possible my main post of today could use your educated opinion and the best opinion is always RESULTS !!!

I just saw this NEWS from ZeroHedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Stocks Slide On Report China Has Deployed 150,000 Troops To North Korea Border
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Apr 10, 2017 11:51 AM


While the catalyst is unclear, it appears the market dropped as headlines of further sanctions against Russia appeared and reports of China deploiying 150,000 troops to its North Korea border.


According to Korean news agency Chosun, the "Chinese army has deployed about 150,000 troops to the North Korean border in two groups to prepare for unforeseen circumstances." The reason: the prospect of "military options", such as preemptive attacks on North Korea, like the one the United States launched on Syria.


More Google translated:
As the United States announced its independent North Korean behavior and moved the United States Navy's nuclear-powered Calvinus (CVN-70) carrier class to Singapore, the Chinese army has deployed about 150,000 troops in two groups to prepare for unforeseen circumstances.

"The report said. It is because of the prospect of taking "military options", such as preemptive attacks on North Korea, just as the United States has launched an air raid on Syria.

Japan's Sankei Shimbun reported on the 9th that the Syrian missile strike in the United States shocked China, suggesting that the People's Liberation Army forces are moving toward the Yalu River, .

The newspaper said the video was also broadcast on the Internet, but the authorities removed the relevant information, saying the move was a medical and aft support unit for the Shenyang bulb (the northern light bulb)

Another possible catalyst is a report by Russia's interfax that Moscow is preparing for more sanctions, and has warned local air companies about a possible suspension of charter flights with Tu

1. POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAN MILITARY OVER SYRIA NOT TO AFFECT RUSSIA'S ACTIONS IN SYRIA, OPERATION TO FIGHT TERRORISTS TO CONTINUE - OZEROV
2. RUSSIAN AIR COMPANIES RECEIVE WARNING ABOUT POSSIBLE SUSPENSION OF CHARTER FLIGHTS WITH TURKEY - SOURCE

Whatever the catalyst, the reaction is clear:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._stocks2_0.jpg
Dropping stocks below the levels right before Syrian airstrikes began...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...stocks_1_0.jpg

The Dow is back at crucial support at the 50--day moving average...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._stocks4_0.jpg

Taking everything but Trannies back into the red for the day.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._stocks1_0.jpg
Gold is bid back over $1250 as USDJPY suddenly plunges.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._stocks3_0.jpg


Benjaminis

http://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-100...-great-danger/

 

1. Look At How The U.S. Attack On Syria Will Really Impact Markets In Coming Days, Plus Today’s Other Big Surprise…
2. Gold Spikes On News Of U.S. Attack On Syria
3. John Embry – A Catastrophic Endgame Is Rapidly Approaching

$10,000 Gold, $500 Silver And A World In Great Danger
200 Views April 09, 2017 GOLD, KWN, KWN II King World News
http://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/...-864x400_c.jpg
With continued uncertainty around the globe, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, spoke with King World News about a world in great danger, $10,000 gold and $500 silver.
Egon von Greyerz: “There are lies, damned lies and news, to paraphrase British Prime Minister Disraeli who said:

“There are lies, damned lies and statistics.”

Today we are fed with lies ubiquitously in the form of news and most people who just follow conventional media are totally unaware of the truth. Because the truth is not spoken by many today:

1. Politicians lie to mislead and indoctrinate the people.
2. Governments put out false economic information to serve their purpose, like unemployment or inflation data
3. Central bankers lie, because if they told the truth, the global financial bubble would burst instantaneously.
4. Bankers lie about the state of their banks because if they told their customers the real financial position, they would not have one single depositor.
5. Fake News and False Flags are now commonplace. Since most people are totally uncritical of all they read in the papers or watch on television, it is extremely easy for governments in the West or East, to publish lies and fake news.
6. Journalists lie because of their political leaning or because they are too lazy to find out the real facts.
7. Pension fund trustees lie because they dare not tell their pensioners that they are unlikely to receive more than a fraction of the pension they have been promised.

The above is but a few examples, the list is endless…
In Volatile Markets, Is Wealth Preservation King?
In a King World News interview I spoke with the man who predicted the Swiss National Bank would experience staggering losses and that the Fed would also experience massive losses that will destabilize the global financial system! His company is the only one in the world offering a precious metals investment service outside the banking system, with direct ownership and full control by the investor. He has also become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, and major global events. To find out what he and his company can do to help answer that age old question for you CLICK HERE.

http://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/...New-Ad-Pic.jpgSponsored

The End Of An Era
The reasons for the lies and deception are quite complex. In simple terms, we are at the end of an era when all moral and ethical values are gone. This happens regularly to all empires. The cycle starts with initial affluence based on real growth combined with theft from “colonies,” which can be both physical and financial. Sooner or later growth slows down and there are less goods or money to steal from the empire or the financial system.
http://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/...obal-Scale.jpg
The costs of war, armaments or financial manipulation also escalate leading to more debts and money printing. Bureaucracy sets in, benefit costs increase and so do taxes. People become lazy and less productive and an ever-greater part of the population receive benefits or don’t work at all. This is what is happening to many countries in the West today. In the US for example, there are 100 million people capable of working that are not in the workforce, and 45 million receiving food stamps. Eventually credit expansion or money printing has no effect. And why should it, since printed pieces of paper or lending of money that doesn’t exist will always have zero value. Accelerated money printing eventually leads to bankruptcy as Ludwig von Mises so accurately stated:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

After 100 years of a failed experiment of credit expansion, leading to bubble assets and quadrillions of liabilities, the world is now on the verge of financial bankruptcy and “a final and total catastrophe of the currency system.” As I have discussed many times, all the necessary elements are in place for this to happen. It is only a question of how long governments and central banks can continue to mislead the people before we reach the end game. The effect of additional credit is now decreasing rapidly since more and more dollars are needed to produce a one dollar increase in GDP.
http://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/...ld-War-III.jpgThe Desperate Road To War
The final desperate measure to divert attention from the dire financial situation of a country is war. After less than 3 months in power, Trump has now had to resort to war. Most of his attempts to exercise presidential power have failed. All of his statements that the US will no longer be an aggressor changed very quickly after an alleged gas attack by Syria. The US president took the decision to bomb Syria before any independent investigation had taken place. Russia is clearly not going to accept this and is now assisting Syria in strengthening their defences. Russia is also sending warships to the Mediterranean where there are already US warships. The UK Foreign Secretary just cancelled a trip to Russia and has agreed with the US Secretary of State to spearhead the drive to get Russia out of Syria.
This is an extremely dangerous situation that could easily turn into a major conflict of catastrophic proportions. But it fits the picture perfectly since war cycles point to an escalation of wars in the next few years. War cycles, as a rule, coincide with the state of the economy. With the world economy now in a worse position than any time in history, the risk of war is greater than for a very long time. Countries like Japan, China, many European nations, and the US, have escalating deficits and debts that will never be paid off.
In 2007-2009, the world financial system almost went under due to debt. Since then world debt has gone up by at least 70%. None of the problems that caused the Great Financial Crisis have been resolved, which means that the risk is now exponentially greater than it was 10 years ago. Most leaders know that they cannot resolve the desperate state of the economy and still remain in power. Therefore, for a superpower like the US, there is now just the ultimate solution. The most convenient solution for a leader who is failing on the home front, is to find a reason and a scapegoat to divert the attention outside his country.
http://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/...-Countries.jpg
Thus, going against everything he promised during the election campaign, Trump is now taking the first steps towards a major global conflict. This war is not against little Syria. Remember that Assad has killed significantly less innocent people than the US and allies have done in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. No, this war is against Russia and for control of the Middle East. Russia has been invited by Syria to defend the country whilst the US is an aggressor. So we are looking at a potential major conflict between the world’s two superpowers.
The outcome of a possible conflict at this level is impossible to predict, especially since nuclear weapons could be involved. Very few countries would escape a major conflict, but it is possible that parts of South America would be better placed as well as New Zeeland and Australia. For most people, it is neither practical nor possible to move somewhere else. Let us hope and pray that nothing will happen. But we have to be aware that the risk is greater than ever.
You Must Protect Yourself And Your Family
What everyone can do, at different levels, is to protect themselves against the coming financial crisis. This crisis is virtually guaranteed to happen within the next few years. For over 15 years my company has helped investors to preserve wealth primarily in the form of owning physical gold and silver outside the banking system.
There are various ways to buy and own precious metals but to be totally safe there are many rules that are sacrosanct:

1. Own physical gold and silver bar and coins. No ETFs, no paper gold or silver.
2. Own your own bars or coins and don’t own a share in a co-owned total stock of gold or silver.
3. Store the metals in ultra-secure vaults outside the banking system.
4. Store the majority of your metals outside your country of residence, in a safe jurisdiction with a long history of rule of law and real democracy.
5. Only store metals at home that you can afford to lose. You might have a safe hiding place but that is not enough. Burglars will threaten your family.
6. Only buy gold from first class gold refiners with LBMA approval. In recent days Comex have suspended registration of Elemetal Refiners in the US (formerly NTR metals) due to a federal probe into smuggling of billions of dollars of illegally mined gold. LBMA has also taken them off their approved list. Elemetal is a major US refiner but their credentials might be questionable.

1. The 4 biggest Swiss refiners have been in business between 50 and 150 years. They produce 60-70% of all the gold bars in the world. They also have a reputation for producing the highest quality gold bars in the world.
2. There is a lot of fake gold produced in the world which looks like perfect bars or coins from reputable refiners. I have myself seen perfect gold bars made in China. But inside there was tungsten. As the gold price goes up, there will be more fake gold. That is why it is critical to buy through reputable companies that buy freshly minted gold from Swiss refiners.
3. Eliminate counterparty risk. Investors must have direct ownership of the bars or coins and not have a subaccount of another company. Investors must have direct access to the vault without the approval of a third party.
4. The metals must be insured for all risks by a major international insurer.
5. Do not self-store with a vault. In some vaults, it is possible for individual investors to do self- storage. This is a false economy. Deal with a company that can provide instant liquidity. If gold or silver are taken out of the LBMA chain of integrity, most major banks or gold dealers will not take the metals back. For small quantities, it might be possible but for bigger quantities, it could be impossible to sell the gold or silver. When you self-store, liquidity can be a major problem.
6. Do not store gold with any bank. This includes private safe deposit boxes in the bank. In the case of a bank failure or extended bank holiday, you might not get access to your gold for a very long time. There are also many cases of governments opening bank safe deposit boxes.
7. Finally, the most important advice I can give investors is to choose a company that has a long track record of stability and reliability. Even more important that the management or owners of the company have an impeccable record over a long time. Whenever I go into business with a company, I always base it on the individuals in charge. They are your partners and their history and track record is more important than all other criteria. Obviously, the business must also produce good products or services and be financially sound.

War or no war, gold and silver have finished the brutal bear market that began after the 2011 peak, and are now on their way to new highs, well above the previous peaks. Gold should attain $10,000 and silver $500, at least, in today’s prices. But since hyperinflation is very likely, the actual prices could be multiples of those levels.
As I have stressed many times, gold and silver should not be seen as investments but as the most important wealth preservation assets anyone can ever hold. Throughout history, during all periods of crisis, whether it is an economic crisis, like hyperinflation or geopolitical like war, gold and silver have always been the best insurance. The coming period is unlikely to be an exception to that rule."

Hi Benjaminis & KeepCalmfx

I have a lot of catching up to do. I have extended my contract, and will have less time to spend on the forum. I work from home and will definitely make an attempt to keep abreast of Benjaminis daily posts. Should learn to speed read... lol. Thank you Benjaminis for your time and teachings. I will pose more questions as they crop up during my catch-up.

Regards, and thank you once again

Roger

I have successfully moved to trading station . I thought I reported that before.

Here is an update on Benjamin's account after all the positions were closed.
Impressive I might add

70 Trades
57 winners
11 losers
2 break
81.4% winning rate

Average Win $486
Average Loss $643

Net Profit is $20,616.16 US Dollars in 48 days.

That works out to a Return on Investment (ROI) of 41.2%

I hope my calculations is right, it has been a long day

Hi Benjamin

Comments from Benjaminis: I direct my comments to everyone, however since KeepCalmfx has the best understanding of the different model that we use to teach Forex traders how to become Forex professionals and earn a substantial income from your Forex trading business. I ask for comments from KeepCalmfx to explain the differences and the positive and the negative aspects of both.

I will comment tomorrow

Thank you very much KeepCalmfx

We did good. Enjoy your evening.

P.S. I did a printout and got the exact same numbers. Our Math is Good. (SMILE)


Benjaminis