Sentiment (Forex Market)

My pr4ediction is that the EURUSD should bottom out at 0.500 before retracing to resume the downtrend in the 0.600 range. Should know for sure by Monday.

thanks for the EUR/USD chart
Happy I am not alone to see the possible bullish beak on that weekly trendline up there
Very refreshing thread, I enjoy your posts.
Keep it up

TQ, please contribute your insights to this trade, make it yr home. Your review is great. P/s wish I could copy and paste yr review here

Not sure ... before I thought that military intervention euro would be bullish next week ... even more if it were dropped on Friday data (as it was). but now scenario may be a bit more confused and uncertain ...

Thank you

As you requested, here is my view. (that is actualy the "short version TA", can you believe it

here we go: EUR/USD


Good morning
I hope you all have a great weekend.

Situation:
We have a very interesting close with price sitting on the 78.6% retracement and on top of a very strong Demand Zone and it's first Resistance @1.058x
On the weekly chart I can't see any sign of a slowdown. The NFP friday caused a strong short momentum after cleaning out most intraday stops up north, basicly wiping out it's range around the 61.8% retracement and finaly breaking out short, heading for the 78.6%.
If this momentum holds, I expect the price going deeper into the Demand zone:

Support/Resistance:
Next Resistance will be the 88.6% retracement @1.054, which serves as the median Demand price with intraday support @1.05330.
The low end of this Demand zone marks @1.04940 and I expect the price to range around the median 1.054, which could create a nice
intraday scalping setup between 1.049x (bottom of Demand range) and 1.058x (top of Demand range).
For this to happen the price first needs to break the 78.6% resistance. (see chart), a PULLBACK to the 61.8% retracement is very possible and could create another short entry with a very good R/R, but we need to wait and see.

Long scenario:
I don't recommend any long positions before we see a pullback with retest AND break back into the old range around 61.8% retracement,
which COULD then start the next wave. (remember: I do not believe in Elliot waves!)
First target would be @1.08040, scaling up at prices: (nope, not for the forum people)
To open any long positions we must wait for the right signals in and around the Demand zones (Candlesticks! PA!)

Short scenario:
a PULLBACK to the 61.8% retracement is very possible and could create another short entry
I don't recommend any more shorts before we see a pullback retest of the 61.8% retracement, OR the price just punching through the Demand zone.
Please be aware that anything above 1.038 is still Demand range, with 1.034 being a very critical breakpoint (see chart)

Entries:
(edited out, not for forum people)

My trading:
My short positions survived the NFP noise on friday and took profit @1.05900 and 1.05860 and closed out.
I still have one short position open with the BE-Stop above the 61.8% retracement and TP @1.05632 and I am ready to close out this final position on Monday before London open before it's actual TP.
I still sit on one very small long position with a Stop @1.038. I will close this position Monday morning before London open, as the hedge sits at 60% profit against the small loss and the breakout short trades were profitable against it.
Long story short: I am closing out of the market as it hits the Demand zone and wait. I will not open any more positions at this point.
I expect the market to pull deep into the Demand zone, range for a few days and we need to wait and see what happens there.
Based on the very strong resistance and the political situation in the US and in Europe, with big money parked in the Yen and no signs of significant moneyflow kicking in just yet, I expect a slow ranging EUR/USD.

Let me speculate a little bit at this point: Big money sells down as a setup for an upcoming bullrun. Big dogs need good prices.

Risk: OFF
close out and wait
Longs: please wait for priceaction (CANDLESTICKS) signals in and around Demand S/R.
Shorts: should be scaled down by now to the final position. Closing out is recommended.
Do not open any more positions at this point. We need to wait and see what happens next.

As always:
trade the candles, not the lines (for my beloved forum people)
Anything is possible, the market makes the decision, not the analyst.
Stay green, stay careful, trade on your own risk and your own judgement, and don't forget to smile.
It costs you nothing to be polite.

cheers, Teek

Chart (Daily):

Thank you for your effort hope to get a weekly review on your sentiment. As I am from Asia I will promote this threat link to the Asian region. Many traders will appreciate reviews from experience or new traders. All sentiment review are welcome. This thread need a general sentiment so our fellow comrades will be able to get a bird eye view on the battle ahead.

My fibo not draw 78.6 ....
at 68 remains the BE

"so our fellow comrades will be able to get a bird eye view on the battle ahead."
Aha!! This explains the latest Asian Sessions!

Wrong thread sorry !!!

Please help maintain this thread with only constructive post. We only want your sentiment toward the market. No right or wrong sentiment. Every traders sentiment counts.

Update us on Monday on your sentiment. Thank you

USDJPY

USDCAD

Xcellent style! Your trading approach is fine OKshop!!!

The classical trend lines, shaping triangles, is a common sense setup for a FX chart!
All that along with some Supply/Demand back-up theory, it's so ok!
Well done! You make a good trader!
Also, EMA 200 as a S/R on high TF is good.
Adding pivot_point levels and a proper money management...

Way to go, OKshop!

GBPUSD

There are numerous strategy this is just one that is interesting. “Standing behind what one believes is the right decision in the face of tremendous controversy is the stuff great leaders are made of”. Remember, at the end of the day, it is your business and the buck stops with you. So only go in a direction that you feel comfortable.

Inserted Video

Intraday Outlook.
(ahead London)

The NFP fundamental indicator pop and the USD kicked all. E/U broke the weekly range.
After filling the gap today, a little correction up to 1.0600 can be expected.
But don't count too much on bulls after US data and political aggressivity lately(!)
...and chair Yellen expected to speak at UoM, audience question expected but the reference at the current monetary policy is unknown ATM(!)
Bully Trump is expected to set tone on the markets, so... uncertain bias, buy Gold(!)

Intraday range S/R levels easy to spot on the chart below.

Have a good trading day/week you all!

Trade idea: USD/JPY, Short
Risk/Reward: 1:3

I took an entry on the H1 but it is not an intraday trade. If it takes profit intraday I'm fine, otherwise I just let it run. Stop is tight, TP is bottom of range, This is a set and forget trade. It either takes the Stop or takes the Profit.
Easy trading, small size, no stress...

Warning: it's a "speculative" trade. I sell top of the range. It might just take the stop and show a bullish break.
So, this is not a "safe bet". If you do this, please keep your stop tight and your risk low! (and do NOT come here and blame me if you lose )
(please make your own decisions, please don't follow my trades, please trade responsible and at your own risk. Good luck)

before I continue to share some ideas,
please let me say a word on my Trading, my Risk and Money Management and my "hitrate":
I trade Priceaction on the Daily chart and I hold my positions longer than a day. Some trades aim for an intraday TP, if I see a good scalping setup. But most trades are mediumterm to longterm trades. I look for entries on D1/H4/H1, and I rarely ever look at the lower timeframes. So, this is not M5 trading!
All my trades are based on priceaction (candlestick patterns), correlation between Currencies, Bonds, Commodities, Equities, Stocks and CfD's, and overall moneyflow.
My trading is 80% technical priceaction trading. No signal > no trade! (golden rule).
My "hitrate" is around 50%+ throughout the year, usualy. This means that I am around 40%-50% wrong!
My PA trading evolves around a "1:3 or better RR" on max exposure of 5% of total Equity (not per trade!), so I can afford 50:50 right/wrong and still make good money.
I usualy do NOT risk more than 0.5%-1% equity per trade, based on how many positions I hold, within the 5% maximum total exposure AND I do hedge some of my risk. (a word of advice for new traders: 5% "unhedged" total market exposure is huge!")
the trades that I share are real money trades, no Demo! Do I share all my trades? NO! and I never will...



so, with this out of the way, here is another one for you, that might be terribly wrong
(seriously, I am a sick man, don't follow me, you have been warned )

Trade Idea: Silver, Short
RR: 1:3

On this trade I took an entry on the Daily chart, after the double top confirmation of restistance and a sign of strong momentum.
It's a bit of a late entry (didn't have time this morning), so I put my Stop tight, a few pips above todays open and I aim for a RR of 1:3
On this trade I am ready to take a RR of 1:2 and close out when it shows signs of a turnaround at the 50%-61.8% retracement.
The late entry can backfire on me and take the Stop, so it's a bit of a gamble based on the strong momentum.
Therefore I only take half size on this trade, keeping it small and the Stop tight.
I will let the trade play out and see if "it pulls", if it loses I be looking for a better price then, or eventualy speculate/reposition on a bullish break.

Please trade at your own judgement and your own risk!
Always trade responsible and within your own rules of risk&money management.
Do not blindly follow my trades! I only share some ideas from time to time (which I do in fact trade)
Have fun, and good luck

Nicely done, Raph!
I am a fan of OKshop. He helped me a lot with his friends.
Your analysis is apperciated here