Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Thank you, Benjaminis.

Do I start trading in the FXCM demo? I have posted account login & emailed the password. I am also following the updates to the forum. please advise next steps...
Roger

Hello my friend

I will log onto your FXCM UK $50,000 US Funds within the next few hours and arrange the 18 Currency Pairs and or CFD's.

I will post on the thread once it is set up for you. For the MOMENT we are on my NEW CODE RED of 10 and so we stand clear EVEN MYSELF , KeepCalmfx.


Benjaminis

04.05.2017
www.bkassetmanagement.com

FX Traders Should Believe Data and Not the Fed

Daily FX Market Roundup 04.05.17

By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management

The price action in the currency and the bond market today tell us that investors believe data and not the Fed. The FOMC minutes were hawkish which is not a surprise considering that the central bank raised interest rates for the first time this year last month. Fed officials talked about lower downside global economic risks, greater upside in fiscal policy risk and described the January consumption slowdown as temporary. These optimistic views and their concern about high stock prices confirm that further tightening is on the way.

Yet investors sold rather than bought dollars after the report because nothing in the Fed minutes reflected an urgency to raise interest rates. As a result U.S. yields nosedived, taking USD/JPY down with it as investors turned their focus to the U.S. China Summit and Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Data wise, this morning's economic reports raised red flags for Friday's non-farm payrolls report. While private payroll growth increased strongly according to ADP, job growth in the service sector fell to its lowest level since August. As the employment component of non-manufacturing ISM tends to have a very strong correlation with the broader release, investors sold dollars aggressively after seeing that the Fed minutes contained nothing to alter the market's expectations for tightening.

We expect the dollar to continue to trend lower particularly against the Japanese Yen.

Politically, there's a lot at stake at tomorrow's summit between the leaders of the world's two largest economies. Before the Summit, President Trump set the tone by saying this will be a difficult meeting. There are many political issues at hand like the one China policy and North Korea but Trump has not been shy about his views on China's unfair currency and trade policies. The BEST case scenario is that both leaders will shake hands, smile and talk about a stronger relationship. Unfortunately, they are walking into the Summit with a strained relationship as Trump rarely misses the opportunity to point fingers at China for its unfair trade practices. FX traders should be nervous because Trump is unpredictable and it is not clear how hard he will press Xi. If the meeting ends with the same awkward press conference as the one held with German Chancellor Merkel, the markets won't be happy and risk appetite could suffer. This would mean further losses for USD/JPY and other high beta currencies.

The reversal in the U.S. dollar sent all of the major currencies higher and the best performing currency today was the British pound. Stronger than expected service sector activity helped to propel GBP/USD within 2 pips of 1.25. While this may be an important resistance level, it should only be a matter of time before it is broken. According to the PMI report, service sector activity accelerated at its fastest pace in 3 months. Not only did this help to offset the negative sentiment caused by the lower manufacturing and construction PMI reports but it also helps to explain why Kristin Forbes voted for an immediate rate hike last month. However, we are worried about today's comments from monetary policy committee member Vlieghe who said cautious BoE rate strategy is currently warranted. He worried that the U.K. consumer slowdown will intensify and felt that a premature rate hike is worse than a late one. With that in mind, sterling traders completely shrugged off his warnings and chose instead to see relief in his view that inflation drives policy so price pressures beyond FX could cause a rate hike.

EUR/USD on the other hand continued to consolidate in a narrow trading range. Service sector PMI was revised lower for the month of March, dragging the composite index down to 56.4 from a previously estimated 56.7. There has been very little action in the single currency as concerns about the French election keeps the pair from materially benefitting from the dollar's decline. German factory orders are scheduled for release tomorrow along with speeches from a number of Eurozone officials including central bank President Draghi so tomorrow could be the day when we finally see a breakout in EUR/USD.

USD/CAD extended its gains on the back of lower oil prices, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rebounded off their intraday lows to end the day unchanged versus the greenback. Last night's economic reports were mostly positive with service sector activity in Australia returning to expansionary territory in the month of March. Although house price growth ease in New Zealand, job advertisements increased. While there are no economic reports from Australia and New Zealand scheduled for release this evening, both currencies will be sensitive to the U.S. / Chinese summit and tonight's Caixin PMI Composite report.


Regards,
Kathy Lien
Managing Director of FX Strategy
BK Asset Management
233 W 77th St Suite 11G
New York, NY 10024
Direct Line: 1-917-538-6971
Fax: 1-925-887-4373
Email klien@bkassetmanagement. com

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The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on BKAssetManagement.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. BKForex Advisors LLC and BKAssetManagement.com are merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual's investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite.

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Short And Sweet: Fed's New Policies A Longer-Term Positive For Gold Price

Michael Kosares
April 5, 2017


http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...es040517-1.pngThe Fed's public relations department has to be working overtime altering, amending and otherwise explaining its new stance[s] on monetary policy. While disinflation and the possibility of deflation occupied market sensibilities, the Fed pointed to its target inflation rate of 2% as proof that stimulus was still on its agenda. Now that producer prices have exceeded that level (and rather significantly as reported in this newsletter last month), articles began to appear in the financial press about a new, much higher inflation target in the 4% range (Wall Street Journal, 4/2/2017).

Also, two powerful members of the Fed's decision-making team, William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, and vice-chair Stanley Fischer, both went public with pronouncements buttressing the accommodative policy message Janet Yellen delivered in her press conference following the Fed's most recent rate-setting meeting.

Even before the Fed's new public relations effort pushing policy accommodation, the gold market was firming up. "Money managers," says Bloomberg's Luzi-Ann Javier, "cut their bullish bets on bullion by the most since 2015 in the week ended March 14. The next day, Federal Reserve Chair Yellen reiterated that monetary policy will remain accommodative for 'some time,' easing market fears that there might be more than three rate hikes this year. Her words sparked the biggest gold rally since November."

Gold And Silver Off To Great Start In 2017
The gold and silver markets have regained momentum from earlier in the year. Gold prices have pushed back over the $1250 per ounce mark and silver is is once again trading above the $18 per ounce level. There should be even more back-pedalling among short-sellers in the gold and silver futures markets in the weeks and months ahead as the idea of a looser monetary policy sinks in.

Gold is up over 9% thus far in 2017 and silver is up over 15% – two of the best performers so far this year among primary portfolio assets. (For a full schedule of asset performers thus far this year, please scroll to the bottom of the page.)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...es040517-2.png
Bedeviled Fed, stretched investors
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...es040517-3.pngA recent study conducted by the New York Federal Reserve found that 33% of the U.S. population would be unable to raise $2000 in a month if needed. Likewise, as the character in the accompanying Ed Stein cartoon illustrates, even if one had significant savings the returns are laughable.


In an article titled, "The Fed is Bedeviled by Keynes' Paradox," Bloomberg's Danielle DiMartino Booth frames the essential economic problem as follows:
"Tack on an overabundance of debt tied to student loans and car payments and it’s easy to connect the dots to the record number of Millennials who continue to live with their parents. At the opposite end of the demographic spectrum, the statistics are equally harrowing. Baby Boomers are carrying unprecedented debt levels relative to prior generations of retirees and rightly [are] overwhelmed at the prospect of retiring on fixed incomes."


"As Keynes’s paradox dictates, retirees have nothing but impossible choices to make. Either they sleep with one eye open, hoping they don’t outlive their prudently stashed savings which are not keeping pace with the rising cost of living. Or they sleep with the other eye open, with their principal at risk, the price they pay for being exposed to risky securities whose returns do outpace inflation. Paradox indeed."
The Pension Tsunami
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...es040517-4.pngUnfunded pension obligations have become so large that they now threaten the financial stability of the cities and states charged with funding those liabilities. A good many city and state plans including most notably – Illinois, California, Chicago, Houston and Dallas – have problems deep enough to jeopardize their credit ratings, according to a Bloomberg article, titled "Pension Crisis Too Big for Markets to Ignore."

Back in 2015, the International Monetary Fund issued a warning that pension funds "could pose systemic risks to the U.S. financial system." "Unfunded pension obligations," says Bloomberg, "have risen to $1.9 trillion from $292 billion since 2007." (A less-forgiving Stanford University study puts that figure at just over $5.5 trillion.)

Though concerned about the stability of their own pension savings, most Americans are unaware of the potential knock-on effect of pension funding problems on the rest of the financial system. With millions of baby boomers retiring annually, those problems have become both magnified and are increasingly a subject addressed in the mainstream financial media. If you are looking for a "left field" event suddenly being visited upon the financial markets, a good candidate would be the over-burdened national pension system.

The Problem In A Nutshell. . .
"The average current retiree pension, not including retirement health benefits – for a state/local government worker with 30 years of service is $67,762 per year. There are 10 million Californians over the age of 55, 25% of the total population. If all of them received a pension of $67,762 per year, that would cost $677 billion dollars, 32% of California’s aggregate personal income of $2.1 trillion. Do you think people who are retired should collect state-funded pensions worth more on average than the earnings of people who work? Do you think this is feasible?" – Ed Ring, PensionTsunami.com
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...es040517-5.pngBoA-ML Says "Long Gold" In Anticipation Of Manias, Panics And Crashes
Bank of America/Merrill Lynch is warning its clients to prepare for manias, panics and crashes. "Normalization," says Michael Hartness, the bank's chief investment strategist, "from a 5,000-year low in rates, 70-year low in G7 fiscal stimulus, 35-year high in the US-German rate differential, an all-time high US stocks vs. [the rest of the world], a 75-year low in bank stocks is unlikely to be peaceful; long gold in anticipation of potential manias, panics, crashes."


He Goes On To Say:
"The beneficiaries of rising inflation and rates are many. The long-run price relative of real assets (real estate, commodities, and collectibles) to financial assets (stocks and bonds) is at its lowest level since 1926. Bull markets in real assets have coincided with war and fiscal stimulus programs in 1940s, rise of inflation in 1960s and 1970s, and 9/11 & China accession to WTO in the early years of this century. Higher inflation and interest rates are consistent with real assets outperforming financial assets: since 1970, relative performance of real assets 83% correlated with inflation.
_______________________________________________________________
Related, in-depth reading:
BlackSwansYellowGold: How gold performs in periods of deflation, chronic disinflation, runaway stagflation and hyperinflation
Black swans: A chronology of panics, manias, crashes and collapses from 400 BC to present


"You say: 'I did not think it would happen.' Do you think there is anything that will not happen, when you know that it is possible to happen, when you see that it has already happened?" - Seneca, 62 AD at the time of Emperor Nero's debasement of Roman coinage

Brexit Least Of Europe's Problems
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...es040517-6.jpg"The European Union," says The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, "is encircled on the outside, split three ways on the inside, and is saddled with a corrosive currency union that is still not established on workable foundations and is likely to lurch from crisis to crisis until patience is exhausted. Europe’s economic 'Lost Decade', and the strategic consequences that stem partly from this failure, have emboldened enemies and turned the Continent into a dangerous neighbourhood. The EU now badly needs a friend on its Atlantic flank. While it would be undignified for any British government to exploit these circumstances (and Theresa May is certainly not doing so) this is the diplomatic and military reality as Britain triggers Article 50."


Europe prays that Italy will pay its debts and that its banks won't fail. It prays that France will not elect Marine LePen president. It prays that Germany will not get fed up with the EU and lead, rather than oppose, its dissolution. It prays that Turkey will keep the immigration problem within its borders. It prays Trump will not abandon NATO. It prays these things and much more. . . . . And then there's the harsh, present reality of Brexit. I'm not so sure it is the least of Europe's prayers simply because the reality is so concrete – so "in-your-face" as we Americans might put it.


Inflation And Negative Real Rates Will Push Gold To $1400-$1500
According to Incrementum AG, "gold prices are projected to rally to levels last seen four years ago, as rising inflation and negative real interest rates combine to boost demand." The Lichtenstein group stated "prices may climb to $1,400 to $1,500 an ounce this year. Gold prices have already climbed year to date, and investors are approaching the new presidential administration with caution as it tries to implement its political and economic agendas. These uncertainties, along with the upcoming France elections, the lingering Brexit process, will increase demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. The real pick up in momentum might start at the beginning of summer," said Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner. "It's in the very early stages of the bull market, so everybody is still kind of cautious or slightly negative, but this will improve."
Will Islamic Finance Transform The International Gold Market?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...es040517-7.jpg"Islamic countries themselves," writes International Banker, "are also now likely to begin offering gold products to investors. Wealth-management companies in countries with more developed financial markets, such as Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, could start to introduce gold-backed ETFs, similar in structure to the SPDR Gold Trust. The new standard may also enable Islamic financial institutions to grow their businesses through the creation of products designed for saving, hedging and portfolio diversification. Although more gold-investment products are expected to be deemed as permissible in the future, derivative contracts such as futures and forwards remain prohibited. Nevertheless, the exposure of what is effectively a new asset class to the Islamic world is bound to have a significant impact on world gold prices going forward."


Far be it for me to throw cold water on what many will read as a positive for the gold market, I rather doubt that the World Gold Council-inspired Shari’ah Standard No. 57 on Gold and its Trading Controls will do much to generate the kind of new demand it predicts. In the end, the initiative sounds very much like similar measures introduced over the past several years in India to inspire a paper market for gold. It never developed, despite a monumental effort, simply because it defies the culture of physical gold established in India over centuries.


There might be some peripheral impact in Islamic finance with respect to paper gold ownership but, as has been the case in India, we doubt the volume will be significant enough to make much of a difference. This is not to say that demand for physical gold in Islamic cultures will diminish in the years to come. More likely, it will continue to exert the same strong and important influence it always has.


Quick Story - A few years back, a new client contacted us to do some business. When asked where he had heard about us, he said that he had recently made a trip to the Middle East and he was intrigued by the number of gold souks in Dubai, the city of gold, that had the USAGOLD website running on computers at the back of the display. When he got back to the United States, he decided to contact us as a source for his own investment purchases.


Understanding Numbers: How To Put Millions, Billions And Trillions In Their Proper Perspective
Big numbers do not register with most people. Thinking in millions is difficult. Billions are a major challenge, trillions nearly impossible. The reason for this, says Wall Street Journal columnist Jo Craven McGinty, is that big numbers are usually offered in isolation without the benefit of comparison. People need some sort of measuring stick to give the numbers meaning. She recently offered some interesting tactics for making big numbers meaningful. Here's one of them:
"[T]hink of it [big numbers]," she says, "in terms of time, like Richard Panek, a professor at Goddard College in Vermont and a Guggenheim fellow in science writing. There are 1 million seconds in roughly 11½ days. There are 1 billion seconds in around 31 years. And there are 1 trillion seconds in around 31,000 years. Someone who doesn’t grasp these differences in magnitude is also likely to be clueless when it comes to assessing the impact of chopping $2.7 billion from a $1.068 trillion budget. It’s less than 1% of the total—the proverbial rounding error."


US Debt Likely To Double Over The Next 30 Years, Gold Will Not Wait That Long To Respond
"Considering President Trump's push for big tax cuts and a promise not to touch key drivers of the debt," says CNBC's Jeanne Sahadi, "the picture could worsen. Right now the nation's debt amounts to 77% of GDP. That's already the highest level since the post-World War II era. If current law remains in effect, it's on track to jump to 150% by 2047, according to the latest long-term budget projections from the CBO. The problem is that while both spending and revenue are projected to grow, spending will far outpace revenue." The fact of the matter is that the national debt doubled over the past eight years, and nothing in Washington has occurred to make anyone think the pace of growth will slow. Though, as this article suggests, it might take 30 years for the debt to double, gold is not likely to wait until 2047 to react to such fiscal profligacy. As you can see in the chart below, gold faithfully tracks the national debt and, if anything, it looks like it might have some catching up to do.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...es040517-8.png
Top Investments For First Quarter 2017: Gold Ranked Number 8, Silver Number 2
The first-quarter results for 2017 are in and they will be something of a surprise to those who get their market information from traditional media sources. The top performer was palladium with a 16.75% gain. Silver was second with a 13.61% gain. Gold, which like silver did not receive a great deal of attention, rose quietly but respectably with an 8.0% gain. Among the stock indices NASDAQ did well with a 12.08% gain, but the two major indices – the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average – finished well below the precious metals with a 5.76% and 4.81% respectively.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...es040517-9.png
Chart courtesy of BarChart.com
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Michael J. Kosares is the founder of USAGOLD and the author of "The ABCs of Gold Investing - How To Protect and Build Your Wealth With Gold." He has over forty years experience in the physical gold business. He is also the editor of News & Views, the firm's newsletter which is offered free of charge and specializes in issues and opinions of importance to owners of gold coins and bullion. If you would like to register for an e-mail alert when the next issue is published, please visit this link.

Disclaimer - Opinions expressed on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.


Michael J. Kosares has over 40 years’ experience in the gold business. He is the founder and executive director of USAGOLD (both the website and gold brokerage service), the author of three books on the gold market, and the editor of "News, Commentary & Analysis," the firm's client letter. He has written numerous magazine and internet essays and is well-known for his ongoing commentary on the gold market and its economic, political and financial underpinnings. Visit his website at www.usagold.com.


More from Gold-Eagle:
Time To Hedge State Reserve Funds With Gold
By JP Cortez


The Next Crisis Is The Mother Of All Counter-Party Risks (Part 1)
By Gijsbert Groenewegen


Short And Sweet: Fed's New Policies A Longer-Term Positive For Gold Price
By Michael Kosares


Heraeus Gold Refinery Buys Swiss Refiner Argor-Heraeus
By Mark O'Byrne


What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
By Axel Merk

The log in details as sent to me by fxcm isn't working on their mt4.

As far as I know you need to NOT BE on the MT4

You need to use the same platform as myself. It should look like the SCREENSHOT that KeepCalmfx posted on our thread. If we cannot solve the issue I will ask KeepCalmfx to help resolve the issue if we cannot in the meantime.

Thanks


Benjaminis

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...y/#more-147364

The Biggest Stock Bubble In U.S. History


Via Investment Research Dynamics
Please note, many will argue that the p/e ratio on the S&P 500 was higher in 1999 than it is now. However, theres two problems with the comparison. First, when there is no e, price does not matter. Many of the tech stocks in the SPX in 1999 did not have any earnings and never had a chance to produce earnings because many of them went out of business. However and Ive been saying this for quite some time and Im finally seeing a few others make the same assertion if you adjust the current earnings of the companies in SPX using the GAAP accounting standards in force in 1999, the current earnings in aggregate would likely be cut at least in half.


And thus, the current p/e ratio expressed in 1999 earnings terms likely would be at least as high as the p/e ratio in 1999, if not higher. (Changes to GAAP have made it easier for companies to create non-cash earnings, reclassify and capitalize expenses, stretch out depreciation and pension funding costs, etc).
https://i0.wp.com/investmentresearch...size=604%2C180


We talk about the tech bubble that fomented in the late 1990s that resulted in an 85% (roughly) decline on the NASDAQ. Currently the five highest valued stocks by market cap are tech stocks: AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN and FB. Combined, these five stocks make-up nearly 10% of the total value of the entire stock market.


Money from the public poured into ETFs at record pace in February. The majority of it into S&P 500 ETFs which then have to put that money proportionately by market value into each of the S&P 500 stocks. Thus when cash pours into SPX funds like this, a large rise in the the top five stocks by market cap listed above becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The price rise in these stocks has nothing remotely to do with fundamentals. Take Microsoft, for example (MSFT). Last Friday the pom-poms were waving on Fox Business because MSFT hit an all-time high. This is in spite of the fact that MSFTs revenues dropped 8.8% from 2015 to 2016 and its gross margin plunged 13.2%. So much for fundamentals.


In addition to the onslaught of retail cash moving blindly into stocks, margin debt on the NYSE hit an all-time high in February. Both the cash flow and margin debt statistics are flashing a big red warning signal, as this only occurs when the public becomes blind to risk and and bet that stocks can only go up. As Ive said before, this is by far the most dangerous stock market in my professional lifetime (32 years, not including my high years spent reading my fathers Wall Street Journal everyday and playing penny stocks).


Perhaps the loudest bell ringing and signaling a top is the markets valuation of Tesla. On Monday the market cap of Tesla ($49 billion) surpassed Fords market cap ($45 billion) despite the fact that Tesla deliver 79 thousand cars in 2016 while Ford delivered 2.6 million. Electric Jeff (as a good friend of mine calls Elon Musk, in reference to Jeff Bezos) was on Twitter Monday taunting short sellers. At best his behavior can be called gauche. Musk, similar to Bezos, is a masterful stock operator. Jordan Belfort (the Wolf of Wall Street) was a small-time dime store thief compared to Musk and Bezos.

Tesla has never made money and never will make money. Next to Amazon, its the biggest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history. Without the massive tax credits given to the first 200,000 buyers of Tesla vehicles, the Company would likely be out of business by now.

Once again the public has been seduced into throwing money blindly at anything that moves in the stock market, chasing dreams of risk-free wealth. 99% of them will never take money off the table and will lose everything when this bubble bursts. And only the biggest stock bubble in history is capable of enabling operators like Musk and Bezos to reap extraordinary wealth at the expense of the public. The bell is ringing, perhaps Musk unwittingly rang it on Monday with hubris. The only question that remains pertains to timing

Comments from Benjaminis: We see that the Stock Markets need to go down and will go down. The last statement from this article is "The only question that remains pertains to timing"

Our Trend is DOWN for US 30 and SPX500 and is Our Trade Plan One and Trade Plan Two.

When that happens as we know with 90% CERTAINTY (CORRELATION) USD/JPY will go towards 108.00 and is our Trade Plan Three. So... WE Short Sell USD/JPY

We also are going LONG Silver (5000 Ounces) and LONG Gold (100 Ounces)

WE also have our most difficult Trade Plan which is EUR/USD Long or Short ?

Since the DIRECTION has not been determined as yet and we see how difficult it is to trade and for confirmation of that just read the Popular EUR/USD thread.

Since I opened my FXCM UK $50,000 US Funds Demo Account on February 21, 2017 which will be 43 days ago today starting with $50,000 US as per the summary of my account that KeepCalmfx did here is my record. KeepCalmfx will confirm my numbers in the morning.

Hi Benjamin, thank you for your reply and post.

I have printed out the report and my observations is as follow:

From the 23rd of Feb you took 48 trades, which is closed. Not counting the currently open trades.
So far 6 losers, 1 break even and 41 win.

The duration of trades vary between some few minutes to few hours to few days. There was 2 trades that was longer, which was a few weeks, which had to have a drawdown of more than $ 1000 at a stage.

Average loss taken $ 1 008
Average win taken $ 525

So now we add my 10 trades not counted in the above summary and we have as follows;

58 TX Trades with 49 winners (8) and 8 losers (2) and 1 break even. So... I won 49 out of 58 or 84.4%

My Net Profit is $18,525.75 US Dollars in 43 days. That works out to a Return on Investment (ROI) of 37%


Benjaminis

https://mishtalk.com/2017/04/05/dont...es/#more-45121

Don’t Worry Weakness is Transitory: Fed Expects a Second Quarter Rebound, Higher Equity Prices


05WednesdayApr 2017


Posted by Mish | April 5, 2017 7:36:29 | Economics


The word of the day is transitory. That’s my take on the release of the March 14-15 FOMC Minutes.

 

1. The information reviewed for the March 14-15 meeting suggested that the labor market strengthened further in January and February and that real gross domestic product (GDP) was continuing to expand in the first quarter, albeit at a slower pace than in the fourth quarter, with some of the slowing likely reflecting transitory factors.
2. Real GDP was expected to expand at a slower rate in the first quarter than in the fourth quarter, reflecting some data for January that were judged to be transitorily weak, but growth was projected to move back up in the second quarter.
3. In their discussion of developments in the household sector, participants agreed that consumer spending was likely to contribute significantly to economic growth this year. Although motor vehicle sales had fallen early in the year and some other components of PCE had also declined, many participants suggested that the slowdown in consumer spending in January would likely be temporary.
4. The slowing appeared to mainly reflect transitory factors like lower energy consumption induced by warm weather or delays in processing income tax refunds. In addition, conditions conducive to growth in consumer spending, such as a strong labor market or higher levels of household wealth, were expected to persist.
5. A number of participants also cited buoyant consumer confidence as potentially supporting household expenditures, although some also mentioned that improved sentiment did not appear to have appreciably altered the trajectory of consumer spending so far.
6. Participants generally agreed that recent momentum in the business sector had been sustained over the inter-meeting period. Many reported that manufacturing activity in their Districts had strengthened further, and reports from the service sector were positive. Business optimism remained elevated in a number of Districts.
7. Members anticipated that inflation would stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term and commented that transitory deviations above and below 2 percent were to be expected.
8. Partly in light of the likelihood that the recent higher readings on headline inflation had mostly reflected the temporary effect of increases in consumer energy prices, members agreed that the Committee would continue to carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its inflation goal.

Balance Sheet Actions

1. Survey results indicated that market participants saw a change in the FOMC’s policy of reinvesting principal payments on its securities holdings as most likely to be announced in late 2017 or the first half of 2018. Most market participants anticipated that, once a change to reinvestment policy was announced, reinvestments would most likely be phased out rather than stopped all at once.
2. A number of participants indicated that the Committee should resume asset purchases only if substantially adverse economic circumstances warranted greater monetary policy accommodation than could be provided by lowering the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound.
3. Several participants indicated that the timing should be based on a quantitative threshold or trigger tied to the target range for the federal funds rate. Some other participants expressed the view that the timing should depend on a qualitative judgment about economic and financial conditions.
4. Nearly all participants agreed that the Committee’s intentions regarding reinvestment policy should be communicated to the public well in advance of an actual change. It was noted that the Committee would continue its deliberations on reinvestment policy during upcoming meetings and would release additional information as it becomes available.

Equity Prices

1. Broad U.S. equity price indexes increased over the inter-meeting period, and some measures of valuations, such as price-to-earnings ratios, rose further above historical norms.
2. A standard measure of the equity risk premium edged lower, declining into the lower quartile of its historical distribution of the previous three decades.
3. Stock prices rose across most industries, and equity prices for financial firms outperformed broader indexes. Meanwhile, spreads of yields on bonds issued by nonfinancial corporations over those on comparable-maturity Treasury securities were little changed.
4. Foreign equity prices increased, flows to emerging market mutual funds picked up, and emerging market bond spreads narrowed.
5. The negative effect of this timing change on projected real GDP growth through 2019 was offset by a higher assumed path for equity prices and by a lower assumed path for the exchange value of the dollar.
6. The staff continued to project that real GDP would expand at a modestly faster pace than potential output in 2017 through 2019.
7. Many participants discussed the implications of the rise in equity prices over the past few months, with several of them citing it as contributing to an easing of financial conditions. A few participants attributed the recent equity price appreciation to expectations for corporate tax cuts or to increased risk tolerance among investors rather than to expectations of stronger economic growth.
8. Some participants viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures. It was observed that prices of other risk assets, such as emerging market stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, and commercial real estate, had also risen significantly in recent months.

Cautiously Upbeat Fed
All in all, the Fed is cautiously upbeat.
Some bloggers thought the Fed was worried about asset bubbles, and perhaps a few of the participants are. But while “many” discussed equity prices, only “some“viewed equity prices as “quite high“.


Did anyone mention bubble? Nope. That word does not show up in the minutes.


The thought that jumped at me is the Fed’s “higher assumed path for equity prices” is supposed to offset the effect of tapering.


So discussion of bubble did not seem to take place by any measure.

If the Fed was truly upbeat in its assessment it would have started tapering already. Instead, the FOMC opinions on the balance sheet run the entire gamut of possibilities.


Here’s my favorite quote “A number of participants indicated that the Committee should resume asset purchases only if substantially adverse economic circumstances warranted greater monetary policy accommodation than could be provided by lowering the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound.”
Don’t Worry!

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Mike “Mish” Shedlock

My Friend and Former Subscriber Teek...

Shouted on profile 10 hr ago

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BenjaminIs

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Replied to Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management


Quoting Don96
{quote} Psychological projection is a theory in psychology in which humans defend themselves against their own unconscious impulses or qualities (both positive and negative) by denying their existence in themselves while attributing them to others.


Good Night Everyone ... See you around 6:00 AM Eastern Standard Time


Benjaminis

President Donald Trump will be meeting with Xi Jinping on Thursday and Friday in Florida, and it has now been announced that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will go to Moscow next week, on April 11-12.


The potential for a historic shift in the order of civilization ending imperial geopolitics, beginning a new paradigm of peace through development and the ennoblement of all mankind has never been as great as it is at this moment in history.


It should come as no surprise, therefore, that the British Empire has launched desperate measures aimed at dragging the United States into a new colonial war, as they did in the cases of Vietnam, Iraq, Libya and now Syria. The intention is not merely to destroy yet another Southwest Asian nation, but to prevent their upstart former colony known as the United States from forming a partnership with Russia and China, ending the fundamental imperial division of the world between East and West, and thus ending the fundamental premise of Empire.


To that end, an atrocity was created in Syria this week, as chemical weapons were released in the town of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib Province, either by terrorists, or, as the Russian evidence indicates, a legitimate Syrian air attack on an al-Qaeda weapons depot which accidentally uncovered and destroyed a chemical weapon factory used by al Qaeda's Syrian branches, releasing a deadly agent which is reported to have killed dozens of people, including children.


Immediately, the British, French and, unfortunately, the U.S., issued a resolution to the UN Security Council declaring the Syrian Government fully responsible and demanding a set of new demands and sanctions. As usual, no evidence was presented.


It should be recalled that in 2013, a chemical weapons attack on Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus held be rebels forces, was immediately blamed on President Assad, and was used by Obama to prepare a full scale military "regime change" assault on Syria, which would have left Syria in the same destroyed condition as Iraq and Libya, under the control of warring terrorist factions.

Only because then U.S. Chief of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey intervened to stop it did the world avoid another war, which could well have led to a global war with Russia. At that time, Putin stepped in to arrange the destruction of Syria's chemical weapons stocks, which was accomplished. It was eventually shown by the UN's Organization for Prevention of Chemical Weapons that the al-Qaeda and ISIS forces do indeed have chemical weapons and the means to produce them, and have in fact used them.

Were the British to succeed in dragging President Trump into a war today, despite Trump's repeated pledges that there would be no more regime change wars and that the U.S. would work with Russia to address the actual threat that of terrorism there is no question but that it would quickly lead to World War III, and a thermonuclear war at that.


In the UN Security Council meeting today, both Russia and China, this time backed up by Bolivia, not only vetoed the insane US/UK/French resolution, but directly addressed the British Ambassador to the UN as a liar and a war-mongerer.

In typical British fashion, the Ambassador had blamed Russia and China for vetoing earlier efforts to launch a war on Assad's Syria as the reason that the new chemical attack had taken place, lying that it was obvious that this new atrocity was done by Assad.

"Your statements are not to be tolerated," the Chinese Ambassador said. "You must stop abusing the UN Security Council and refrain from such action." The Russian representative accused the British of "introducing provocations, beyond diplomatic norms. You want the UN Security Council to provide legitimacy for your illegitimate plans."


Will the Tony Blair/George Bush lies, which launched the perpetual Hell in the Mideast with their illegal war on Iraq in 2003, be repeated today? Will the huge potential for peace and development through global cooperation in the New Silk Road be snuffed out by yet another British attrocity, with American duplicity in the evil of "perfidious Albion?"


We are at a crucial turning point in history. It is precisely the willingness to act by every cognizant human being in this moment of decision which will determine if we have war or peace, destruction or development, civilization or a new Dark Age.


Wednesday, April 5, 2017


Lead

https://larouchepac.com/20170404/wil...-new-silk-road


World Land-Bridge
New International Economic Order
Will President Trump Join the New Silk Road?
https://larouchepac.com/sites/defaul...?itok=96fZ8lp8
President Trump speaking at the National Building Trade Union conference in Washington, April 4, 2017.


20160405-trump-silk-road.pdf


The fate of civilization could well be determined this week, as President Donald Trump is standing firm against the "color revolution" being waged against the United States by the British Empire and their stooges in the failed Obama Administration, and, at the same time, is preparing an historic summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where he could, and must, officially join the New Silk Road.


The British imperial division of the world into warring blocs — none more important for the survival of their vile Empire than "East vs. West"— would collapse under a Trump partnership with China to cooperate on the development of the nations of the world through China's One Belt-One Road, and a partnership with Russia to defeat the terrorist scourge, a creation of London and their Saudi monarchical allies.


Following the terrorist bombing of a St. Petersburg subway Monday, Trump called President Vladimir Putin, offering "the full support of the United States Government in responding to the attack and bringing those responsible to justice," according to the White House. "Both President Trump and President Putin agreed that terrorism must be decisively and quickly defeated," the readout said.

Thursday and Friday, the President will meet with Xi Jinping in his Florida residence. Both sides are reported to have carefully planned the summit — both sides want a successful meeting, and both sides intend to end the geopolitical "zero-sum" approach to global diplomacy, replacing it with win-win cooperation to address the common aims of mankind.

As Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told the Chinese during his visit last month to arrange this week's summit, the US-China relationship in the Trump Administration would be "a very positive relationship built on no confrontation, no conflict, mutual respect, and always searching for win-win solutions". This was a direct reflection of Xi Jinping's 2012 call for building a "new type of major country relationship" between China and the U.S., based on "no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation," a proposal totally rejected by President Obama, who proceeded instead to prepare for a military confrontation with China.


The British/Obama/media effort to blame Russia for the failure of the Hillary Clinton campaign, and to accuse Trump of being a Russian patsy, is increasingly being ridiculed, while the crimes of Obama and his corrupt intelligence team can no longer be concealed. The former Deputy Director for Intelligence for U.S. Central Command, Col. James Waurishuk, responding to the exposure of Obama's National Security Advisor Susan Rice's role in using the intelligence community to spy on the Trump campaign, saying:"We're looking at a potential constitutional crisis from the standpoint that we used an extremely strong capability that's supposed to be used to safeguard and protect the country, and we used it for political purposes by a sitting president. That takes on a new precedent."


Trump also addressed the Building Trades Unions legislative conference in Washington DC today, inspiring them to take responsibility for the "once thriving cities marred by empty lots and once booming industrial towns that have become rusted and are in total disrepair." He continued:"Standing before me today, in this very hall are the men and women who if given the chance can transform these communities. You are the citizens who can rebuild our cities, revive our industries and renew our beloved country, and I know you will stop at nothing to get the job done."


The British Empire is crumbling, but are they deploying their forces, with a sense of total desperation, to bring down the United States of America, to preserve their "divide and conquer" control of the world on behalf of their bankrupt financial empire. For the United States, China and Russia to join together on behalf of all mankind would mean the end of Empire, perhaps forever.


The ideas introduced and disseminated over the past fifty years by the movement founded by Lyndon LaRouche — for peace through development, for restoring the American System of Hamiltonian creditary economics, for ending the cultural swamp of "sex, drugs and rock and roll" in favor of a new renaissance of classical culture and science — are now close to realization. We cannot fail history at this great moment.

US Presidency

[quote=BenjaminIs;We also call that the REALITY STAGE (COLD HARD FACTS) As you can see, Thanks to my friend and associate, KeepCalmfx who posted my SCREEENSHOT this morning, when I TOLD everyone to "NOT DO WHAT I WAS ABOUT TO" do and now I only have 2 open Positions of US 30 so not only did I, talk the walk I walked the talk. My EGO just wrote that because I am HYPER now (JOKE) My EQUITY BALANCE IS NOW OVER $68,000 US Dollars with TWO open Positions of US 30. I just closed one of my two open positions of US 30 for my FIRST LOSS of the day of $245 US Dollars and I now have one open position of US 30 and at this second my Equity is $68,320.75 US Dollars. Hello KeepCalmfx I see that you are online. I just closed my last open position for another loss of $165 US Dollars so now all in cash. My CASH balance is $68,525.75 US Dollars. Whenever you have time please do a SCREENSHOT FOR ME !!! Thanks very much... Benjaminis[/quote]

Good day Everyone

Here is the update on Benjamin's account.

Hi Surgefx

Welcome, did you get your trading station platform to start with your login details?

If not, you need to download the trading station platform from their website.
It will create an FXCM Icon on your desktop, if you open it, you can just put in your login details

See screenshots - Let me know if you need more help.

I downloaded their trading station but the login details they sent to my email isn't getting me logged in as the first letter is being rejected .

Hi Surgefx

Please try the following

1. Go to link https://www.fxcm.com/uk/platforms/
2. Click op Platforms
3. Click on trading station
4. Scroll down to "try me" and click on it.
5. Complete your details, put in fake contact details - no one will call you. Remove the tick at "Email me free educational trading.. "
6. On the next screen your login details will be displayed and you will receive and email.
7. Try to log in your trading station platform with new log in details - copy and paste both, for in case you press wrong digit when entering manually.

I hope this works

I actually downloaded mt4 not trading station didn't known they had different platforms .so I can download and try the previous login on the trading station

Yes, let me know if it works.

Thank You very much KeepCalmfx

You have invested much of your time here and you have learned how to trade Forex and be successful. As I have same since I started the thread on December 3, 2016 the KEY to SUCCESS was a combination of many things. First of course is the Forex Trader.

However for that to happen as I had asked there was an investment required. That investment was at least one hour a day of your time. Doing that without finding excuses not to do it shows DISCIPLINE. Of course without the DESIRE to learn DISCIPLINE will not follow.

Then we come to the Mentor and the student. The Teacher is only as good as the Students and if the Students cannot also help the Teacher to learn then there is no communication between the two.

That is why I wanted to have Forex Retail Traders interested in doing things differently with an open mind was to try to post here with questions and their comments. This has happened and has been positive.

I do not intend to trade today and tomorrow I will trade and run an open session live so that I can explain the unique characteristics of trading NFP day.

I have already done that a few times and what you will see and learn is how things change as the MONEY FLOWS around. Then you most likely will se things change around to a different direction and in the middle of all this we have MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS in Florida between China and the USA.


Thanks everyone for your interest and participation.


Benjaminis

Its working now on trading station.

Here are the charts.

Hello Where Has Everyone Gone ? (SMILE)

I did one quick trade at 14:27 PM and closed it at 14:57 PM Eastern Standard Time.

I Shorted one position of 100 units of US 30 for $505 US Dollars in profits and my balance now all in cash is $69,030.75 US Dollars.

I would ask KeepCalmfx to do a SCREENSHOT on Friday.

I might post later today however if I do not you can still post your questions. Now heading to 40% ROI and now at 38%.

I just might get to 50% for 60 days of Forex trading.

We will see. Please join us tomorrow for the exciting Non Farm Payroll Day !!!


Benjaminis