I don't get it? Reaction after USD News Releases | Forex Factory

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I don't get it? Reaction after USD News Releases

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 5, 2017 10:15am Apr 5, 2017 10:15am
Why is the USDCAD going bullish after a bad news release for the dollar? Can some explain this to me, please? I'm talking about the latest USD news releases: Crude Oil Inventories and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)! Both were negative, but after this release, the price raises up with 25+ pips.

I'm looking forward to hearing from you and learn because it is clear that I miss something here
  • #2
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:01pm Apr 5, 2017 12:01pm
Quoting fxforexnew
Why is the USDCAD going bullish after a bad news release for the dollar? Can some explain this to me, please? I'm talking about the latest USD news releases: Crude Oil Inventories and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)! Both were negative, but after this release, the price raises up with 25+ pips. I'm looking forward to hearing from you and learn because it is clear that I miss something here
Frankly it is not as simple as that.
That consensus is made by few economists.
But doesn't mean it is set in stone. If the current result is less than expected, then we will immediately see the bear come in play

The biggest news today is the FOMC minutes.
We will see if those bad news is not so bad after all because the FED is pleased with the economy outcome.

Cheers
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #3
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:05pm Apr 5, 2017 12:05pm
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the CAD a currency that is directly correlated to oil?

Hence, if oil goes down, CAD goes down. Assuming USD strength remains unchanged, USD/CAD goes up. Or as long as USD strength doesn't fall as fast as CAD (oil) strength, then USD/CAD is still going up.
  • #4
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:24pm Apr 5, 2017 12:24pm
Quoting fxforexnew
Why is the USDCAD going bullish after a bad news release for the dollar? Can some explain this to me, please? I'm talking about the latest USD news releases: Crude Oil Inventories and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)! Both were negative, but after this release, the price raises up with 25+ pips. I'm looking forward to hearing from you and learn because it is clear that I miss something here
There is a very good article which explains it. The moment I find it, I will share it with you. However, it goes on to say that High impact news is designed to quickly shift the price against the masses! I guess that is the reason why many "Professional" traders rather not trade right before/during high impact news. I guess if the market a real " order flow" then it would be much easier to follow along, but since it doesn't, trading high impact news is merely a pipe dream!
I'm your unknown friend!
  • #5
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:43pm Apr 5, 2017 12:43pm
Quoting ThreeHalf
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the CAD a currency that is directly correlated to oil? Hence, if oil goes down, CAD goes down. Assuming USD strength remains unchanged, USD/CAD goes up. Or as long as USD strength doesn't fall as fast as CAD (oil) strength, then USD/CAD is still going up.
That is very interesting. So if CAD is directly correlated to oil then my question is answered! I will go deeper into this..thanks
  • #6
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:44pm Apr 5, 2017 12:44pm
Quoting RainBowDash
{quote} There is a very good article which explains it. The moment I find it, I will share it with you. However, it goes on to say that High impact news is designed to quickly shift the price against the masses! I guess that is the reason why many "Professional" traders rather not trade right before/during high impact news. I guess if the market a real " order flow" then it would be much easier to follow along, but since it doesn't, trading high impact news is merely a pipe dream!
Looking forward to that article Thanks
  • #7
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:45pm Apr 5, 2017 12:45pm
Quoting yousername
{quote} Frankly it is not as simple as that. That consensus is made by few economists. But doesn't mean it is set in stone. If the current result is less than expected, then we will immediately see the bear come in play The biggest news today is the FOMC minutes. We will see if those bad news is not so bad after all because the FED is pleased with the economy outcome. Cheers
15 min to go..looking forward what that news is going to do with the USDCAD! Thanks for your input
  • #8
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:56pm Apr 5, 2017 12:56pm
Quoting fxforexnew
Why is the USDCAD going bullish after a bad news release for the dollar? Can some explain this to me, please? I'm talking about the latest USD news releases: Crude Oil Inventories and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)! Both were negative, but after this release, the price raises up with 25+ pips. I'm looking forward to hearing from you and learn because it is clear that I miss something here
because of Smart Money. They are moving the market and looking for liquidity. Does not matter what are news saying.
  • #9
  • Apr 5, 2017 1:04pm Apr 5, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting fxforexnew
{quote} 15 min to go..looking forward what that news is going to do with the USDCAD! Thanks for your input
let the drum roll...... and it is....
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #10
  • Apr 5, 2017 1:22pm Apr 5, 2017 1:22pm
Bearish
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #11
  • Apr 5, 2017 1:26pm Apr 5, 2017 1:26pm
Quoting RainBowDash
{quote} There is a very good article which explains it. The moment I find it, I will share it with you. However, it goes on to say that High impact news is designed to quickly shift the price against the masses! I guess that is the reason why many "Professional" traders rather not trade right before/during high impact news. I guess if the market a real " order flow" then it would be much easier to follow along, but since it doesn't, trading high impact news is merely a pipe dream!
RainbowDash,

Looking forward to the article... Thanks in advance...
  • #12
  • Apr 5, 2017 1:33pm Apr 5, 2017 1:33pm
Quoting fxforexnew
Why is the USDCAD going bullish after a bad news release for the dollar? Can some explain this to me, please? I'm talking about the latest USD news releases: Crude Oil Inventories and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)! Both were negative, but after this release, the price raises up with 25+ pips. I'm looking forward to hearing from you and learn because it is clear that I miss something here

If it was that easy most would have made money here......

Not sure how much experience you have but if i may.........

Do not try to interpret the news......
Do not trade on news announcements......
Do not read newsletters and forecasts....NEVER!
reading newsletters and forecasts will make you bias to a specific market direction. If the market then does not go your anticipated way it will confuse you and stop you from participating in what you see is happening on the charts

Only trade what you see on the charts. Hanging out here and listening to other traders biased opinions will and could also keep you out of profitable setups.

Trading knowledge does not come overnight. There is no substitute for "screen time"
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #13
  • Apr 5, 2017 1:37pm Apr 5, 2017 1:37pm
This is why Forex is such an unpredictable case. In simple terms, 2 options – Buy/Sell – 50/50% chance, but in real terms, it’s extremely difficult. The biggest issue is often things look complicated but are simple while often simple things are not exactly simple like that news. It was not long ago when the interest rate increased for Dollar, but we still saw the reaction being negative, so plenty to look at before thinking I got this!
  • #14
  • Apr 5, 2017 1:56pm Apr 5, 2017 1:56pm
Quoting Fedricks
This is why Forex is such an unpredictable case. In simple terms, 2 options Buy/Sell 50/50% chance, but in real terms, its extremely difficult. The biggest issue is often things look complicated but are simple while often simple things are not exactly simple like that news. It was not long ago when the interest rate increased for Dollar, but we still saw the reaction being negative, so plenty to look at before thinking I got this!
I assume that you say you have a 50/50% chance, only because you have two options (buy and sell) but what about when the market is flat! You not taking a trade is also an option. Also trades (buy,sell,hold) can tilt into one side heavily depending on the formation which you see.
I'm your unknown friend!
  • #15
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:03pm Apr 6, 2017 6:03pm
What people seem to think here is that negative news equal sell and positive news equal buy.

If it was that simple, we would be all billionaires here.
"Don't lose your cool, and you will fare well".
  • #16
  • Last Post: Apr 6, 2017 8:36pm Apr 6, 2017 8:36pm
Quoting diana91
What people seem to think here is that negative news equal sell and positive news equal buy. If it was that simple, we would be all billionaires here.
I think it is fair to say that no one thinks that anymore. What the O.P. is looking for is an answer as to why it isn't that way, instead of a scarcastic answer.
I'm your unknown friend!
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