EURJPY Live Market Commentary

First, before the start of US session, market has found value around 11920. Just now market found a new fair value on around 11935; it's going up.

Second, price just broke last higher low at 11945. If the next bear reaction doesn't break 11930, we have confirmation of bullish trend.

Playing with Technician App. Bear wave has not ended yet...

Bear TL is broken. Now just wait for buying opportunity after the retracement.

I got around 10 pips from 20 pips move. Now, what do we have here?

I'd say the trend is still up, which means the opportunity to buy is wherever above 11936, about now.

Another buy opportunity

Still up...

Bear TL is broken. There are three alternatives in this situation:

1. Close trade immediately
2. Move SL about 1 pip below the bar
3. Consider it a retracement. Which means do nothing unless it break through the last higher low at 11935

Notice that the previous bull wave failed to make higher high. An early warning.

Observations

1. While in congestion, it's good to buy and sell at the extremum. But remember that all congestion is eventually broken. Be very very careful when dealing with congestion.

2. As Charles Dow said, it's hard to change hourly trend, harder for daily trend, and even harder for weekly trend. Analyze and count the probability accordingly.

3. Personal behaviour: I notice that I often jump into the trade at the first sign of change in market situation. This is good, as long as the change is confirmed, there's no conflicting information, and I'm in tune with the flow of the market. Otherwise, wait, or it could turn bad really soon.

4. Remember that all kinds of tools and analysis are ultimately used to discern buying and selling pressure, nothing more. Don't be trapped in news, tools, or analysis. Recall what Douglas said: anything can happened in the market. Focus on buying and selling pressure.

Price has definitely broke through 3 days congestion, before tested the lower limit of congestion again, and then went down. Notice that although we've gone through Asia and half of European session, today's trading range is small, and price still haven't make new lower low. Look closer to H1 and we see that price have a problem around 11860. An even closer look suggests a small trading range between 11880 and 11862. Also notice that currently price has broken the H1 bear TL. Therefore, the current hypothesis is bull, which will be falsified if price break down and make higher low.

There's an interesting situation: price has broke level 11862 twice, but went up again. The first break at US open is accompanied by about thrice the usual volume. Is it selling climax?

Higher high confirmed. Now waiting for higher low.

Bear reaction in progress

Bull again

Another higher high, with increasing volume

Bear wave is increasing. It could be a good thing or bad thing i.e bear reaction could be sudden and sharp. Move SL and relax.


Edit: wrong pic

First trade is done. It seems that level 11880 is still strong. The opportunity to sell is then after the first retracement, or after 11860 is broken.