Cycle Trading

Thank you, I will take a look into those later tonight, I am sure it will be a great start

I have tested out different stuff, but in the end, I am funny enough only profitable when trading what I see on clean charts and by using good old price action, no "mechanic" strategy have been a fit for me.

Would love to just add another dimension to my trading, and I hope forecasting could help me.

I will subscribe to the thread and continue watching what you do.

Once again, thank you very much!

Aussie Aussie Aussie OI OI OI!!!!!!

AUDUSD is usually boring during this period, but it also makes for some semi-easy good pickins' with Nadex Binaries.

Since price reached it's ADR for the last 24 hrs and the cycle forecast showing a short term top and a drop, I took a shot at an ITM short @ 7620 strike. The green dash is where price was when I got in. On the housing news, price rose a bit on me, so I hedged with a higher ITM binary @ 7676 strike. Then price dropped nicely down into Expiry paying me off on both. Only 10 pips of movement paid me off handsomely.

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I don't do the directional hedge too often because you can end up losing on both.. which has happened to me before. ouch. But with only 10 pips of range, I couldn't get in with a long from underneath to get an Iron Butterfly going. With an Iron Butterfly, worse case is one side wins the other loses. If price finishes between both strikes, both sides win. With the directional hedge, there was a 4 pip window where the lower could lose and the upper win but also the risk of price expiring above both and both losing. Risky if you get caught in a major move. I've got a database I built where I have expected range for not only per hour, but hour per day, per day of week, per month, and also on same news announcement. So given expected range for a 2hr period for this period of the day, on this day of the week, day of the month, and that particular news announcement, price at ADR, and my time cycle forecast giving me a short term top, why not.

GBPUSD London Open. OTM 1.2460 cashed on the touched. OTM 1.2440 cashed out manually deep ITM.

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VERY short term GBPUSD ATM/ITM. 1.2458 strike looking to cash in on the small window to Expiry on the 15 min. cycle showing a short term sell signal. Cut it pretty close. Was almost 5 pips up and should have closed it manually on the cycle low. Still ended up finishing ITM by 1.4 pips. In hindsight I should have used a deeper ITM strike given the short window to Expiry. Less risk probability wise. Lesson learned.

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There's a possible short setting up, but I'm done for the day with the binaries. 5 for 5 since last night. Hit my weekly target. No sense in risking giving it back. I put a small spot trade on with the GBPUSD, though. My Oanda account is up 10% this week swing trading tiny.

I lied. Price is at the daily ATR and a cycle high. Short OTM 1.2460 20hr Expiry. Putting up a beautiful 4:1 R:R. Too good to pass up on small risk. I've got a WO to cash out below a touch which does make the R:R 2:1 but I'll take the cash versus hanging on.

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Added a GBPUSD Short ATM/ITM 1.2520 strike with Expiry about an hour away. If that cashes, it'll cover the OTM. Stop trigger set for sure on this one since price is flirting.

1.2460 is now a free trade. In fact, I'll be up $20 if it's a complete loser because the 1.2520 covers and then some. I love Nadex and options. Overall risk on this play was -$40 per. Potential reward is $100 per. Solid execution and timing and the risk is positive? What's that... a reward:reward ratio?

I've still get quite a bit of time left to get near 1.2460. I'll just play it by ear. WO is now set for a touch which would cash out at $50 per. From here on out my max potential loss is only -$25 on the OTM but factor in the ITM cashed and I'm still up. I could close anytime and lower that loss amount if price continues to drop.

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I thought I was done trading but S&P has put in it's ADR and there was a good strike at a good price. Short ITM @2364.5 with about an hour to go til Expiry. Might close this one out early and just grab what profit is accumulated which is 50% ROI as of this moment.

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AUDUSD Short NADEX ATM/ITM strikes of .7652 and .7656. Even though price has achieved 80% or so of it's ADR to the downside, I took a shot at shorting ATM/ITM on the retrace just so I was sticking with the trend. I set up WO's to get me in at $32 for .7652 and $25 for .7656. Both orders got filled with about 60 min. left on the 2hr binary. I ended up taking profits early when price dropped down to the Aqua line... a pivot.. rather than risk a runup and loss. Basically a scalper. With the stop triggers set it was $52 risked and $23 pocketed. The thing would have Expired and cashed out both combined for $57 but I just took my money and ran. Basically paid for dinner in about 15 minutes. Without stop triggers it was $75 + $68 risked. .7652 almost triggered out. .7650 was never threatened. Had I been paying attention a littler earlier, it was a beautiful Iron Butterfly setup. Then it would have been worst case scenario $40 or so risked on $60 reward.

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Long shot GBPUSD short OTM got within 6 pips at one point but I didn't close it out. The loss would have been $5. Ended up taking the full $25 loss on that, but as mentioned above, I hedged out of it and the whole position was net positive.

Dollar/Yen waaaaay over it's ADR and at the top of the cycle. Short term short side scalper and/or ITM binary? So tempting. Gonna pass. I think I'll go get sushi, though. Here's a chart in case someone wants to take a stab.

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EURUSD Nadex OTM 1.0640 Strike. Only needed about 39 pips of travel. EUR averages almost twice that on a good day. Came up 1.5 pips shy of cashing me out. haha. Oh well. I also did a 1.0660 OTM when price ran back up to resistance. That one cashed easily and more than covered the. 1.0640. Another example of win-win r:r.

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GBPUSD OTM 1.2420 cashed. That one happened a lot sooner than expected.

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EURUSD OTM 1.0660 and 1.0640 cashed.
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Currently short Crude Light OTM 49.75. Friday Expiry. That was the closest strike I could find to my target.
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Nadex uses Reauters and a weird pricing model for the indicative. They take the last 25 mid price ticks, drop the top and bottom 5 and that's their price. So sometimes it can differ a bit from whatever MT4 broker I'm using. Right now I'm using Oanda since that's where my current spot account is. I've seen price a good 2-3 pips beyond the strike before I got cashed. This time Oanda shows price not quite to the strike and I got cashed. No complaints on that one... I got cashed.. but still. I'm going to write up an indicator to mimic their pricing. It might not be spot on but at least it'll be closer than using MT4 bid/ask.

Anywho, this was a quick trade. Long EURUSD slightly OTM 1.0660 strike 12:00 EST expiry for $25 cost and cashed at $50 so $25 profit for a 1:1 r:r. About a 2hr window which is how I got in at a great price. Charts are 15 min. Basically bought the dip on the cycle forecast.

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Oh... and that trade was to pay for the Oil trade. So now the Oil is covered and has a week to hit my target. Or not.

Short EURUSD OTM 1.0660 (seeing a pattern here?) Not a good price, though. Looking for price to get to 1.0650 or lower before it cashes. I set an order last night to short OTM 1.0680 but it didn't fill. That one would be sitting pretty about now.

Short SP OTM 2356 set to cash the touch.

More likely to be not. Weekly Oil Inventory today. This trade was already covered by yesterday's EURUSD long semi-scalper.

Took off 1.0660 with small profit. Call it a scratch. Long OTM 1.06800 set to cash on the touch.

Wow. Got the touch. Pretty much had written this one off. Glad I went OTM on the cheap rather than ATM or ITM. The thing spent most of the day against me.

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Same for SP. OTM on the cheap. Saved by the bell. Had I let it expire, it would have cashed huge. But I don't touch my orders once they're set and this one was setup to cash on the touch.

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I fired up and re-funded the Oanda account mid March to get back into the swing of swing of trading. It's up almost 20% on the slow and steady.
Too bad CFD's aren't traded here in the US. My Windsor demo account is doing pretty well. At least in demo. 17-0 and up over 100% in a month. Those demo dollars are gonna buy a lot of demo hookers and blow!

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I use Windsor for my non-currency MT4 charting. I think they're in Cyprus? I don't know don't care. I just need their e-mini and oil data. Anywho, I've been mirroring some of my trades in there just for demo poops and giggles. I've purposely not done any Gann, astro, esoteric, geometric/pretty chart stuff in ages just so I could get back into the swing of price action, basic chart patterns, etc. and because it makes my Nadex intraday binary trades simpler to get into and walk away from and just let play out. Those are just simple math with either OTM and betting where price is possibly going or ATM/ITM betting where price isn't going to go.

Currencies aren't showing me squat to trade. 4h charts are a coin flip. Even the longer term forecasts show squadoooosh.

4h GBPUSD. Right smack dab in the middle of the triangle. Forecast swings it both ways.
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1h GBPUSD.
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4H EURUSD. Possible long off the trendline if it dips? No Nadex setups on this one.
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Nadex SP is at the Open-Close range bottom and bottom of the cycle. So I've got an OTM Long 2354 Strike on. That's only 36 ticks away. Orders set to cash on the touch.

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