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vsa with Malcolm

  • #28,521
  • Mar 30, 2017 4:48am Mar 30, 2017 4:48am
Quoting Whatsmyname
Looking at EURUSD m5 Timeframe. Yesterday there was climatic selling. Today price came back to test the high volume area. There was an attempt to break the low (successful). Effort to move down. But there is no follow through. So this chart did catch my attention. So if I see down candles with low volume, these would be successful tests and a trigger to go long. {image} Edit: I did take a trade on what appears to be a mark down. The low volume indicates there should not be a follow through. {image} Please advise me where I am wrong or not seeing...
This trade reminded me about one trade i posted here and asked for explantations. Maybe not very same trade, but i see similarity.
Here the post https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...61#post9562561
and farther posts with explantations.

And chart about today with my thoughts, hope this would help
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  • #28,522
  • Mar 30, 2017 5:23am Mar 30, 2017 5:23am
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} This trade reminded me about one trade i posted here and asked for explantations. Maybe not very same trade, but i see similarity. Here the post https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...61#post9562561 and farther posts with explantations. And chart about today with my thoughts, hope this would help {image}
Thanks for your valuable feedback.
I read your past post and the correspoding answers. All valuable posts and great insight. It's very helpful.

My reasoning for the trade was the climatic action from yesterday. That volume is a great deal higher than todays volume so far.
So it appeared to me a test of yesterday's volume. But at the same time, considering "pres78"
Quote
Down bar followed by up bar doesn't automatically mean buyers are in charge. Buyers were found yes, but you need to consider context of the PA and what the background is. As I noted we took out yesterday's low so of course there would be buyers... sellers absorbed them all and lower prices were seen after.

Absorption did not really come to my mind. I figured, we need a stronger candle, or at least more volume to absorb the buying action. The break below is on reduced volume compared to what was seen yesterday. If I understood correctly, there is no time limitation for the validity of high volume areas.
Never stop to learn
  • #28,523
  • Mar 30, 2017 6:09am Mar 30, 2017 6:09am
Hope am not posting too much.

Here is another asset I am interested in. Hope this will not distract from my previous questions.
This is AUDNZD.

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I am looking for a test of resistance. Price is moving on low volume up.

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We are not there yet. Signs of weakness are visible. But there is not really anything indicating a resumption of the bears at the moment.
Ideally VSA traders sell on up candles and buy on down candles. With this in minde, what would I be looking for here. I do not really want to place
a short on the close with a possible stop above the bull fractals at about 1,0970.

My thought would be to look for a down candle and see if there is any selling interest, before I consider shorting. Or price does attempts to break the supply level.
The breakout attempt will certainly give more insight.
Never stop to learn
  • #28,524
  • Mar 30, 2017 6:20am Mar 30, 2017 6:20am
Another pair with Aussie.

This is a follow up on my chain of thought mentioned here.

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The small upward move was on low volume, which is not ideal for bulls. Then there was some selling pressure.
The last candle did close on a narrow spread with comparatively equal volume, which is an early sign of strength.
This alone is not sufficient enough to look for longs. But this darws my attention. I like the level.

I am inclined to scrole down to m5 to look for signs of strength but refrain from doing so. Taking a break for now.
Looking forward for feedback.
Never stop to learn
  • #28,525
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:09am Mar 30, 2017 7:09am
A follow up on my EURUSD trade.

I got taken out for BE

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I got stopped on a high volume narrow spread candle.
A doji on high volume must mean something.

As price had difficulties moving up, I moved my stop to BE to be on the safe side.
Never stop to learn
  • #28,526
  • Mar 30, 2017 12:00pm Mar 30, 2017 12:00pm
Maybe someone know any analogs of this two marked indicators? Or how them work maybe ill be able to code it, im become really interesting in them
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  • #28,527
  • Mar 30, 2017 12:34pm Mar 30, 2017 12:34pm
EURUSD - there was never any reason today to be looking to go long. Shorts all the way today on this pair.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,528
  • Mar 30, 2017 2:24pm Mar 30, 2017 2:24pm
It doesnt meet your new 2BR criteria, but see the 2 hours of bars on the chart prior to NYO/News form a Pres2BR at Yesterdays low. Would have gotten 1:1.
I didnt trade it so only the empty glory of hindsight for me.
Volume at Volume
  • #28,529
  • Mar 30, 2017 3:45pm Mar 30, 2017 3:45pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
USDJPY has had 3 very nice signs of strength.(DAILY) Today was no selling pressure after a 2 bar test (2 finger salute in smart) Id be careful holding any shorts. Futures and COT data are showing a very large short position by the Herd. The Herd gets slaughtered.
Yesterdays analysis played out very well.
Much more room higher to go If the strength continues. Volume will tell us.
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  • #28,530
  • Edited 6:54pm Mar 30, 2017 6:30pm | Edited 6:54pm
Quoting Whatsmyname
{quote} You mentioned the big timeframes show clear supply. I like the approach of looking at a bigger timeframe as a guide and triggers on a shorter timeframe. Do you analyse the bigger timeframe, then go down to the lower timeframe to look for entries? Or do you rather trade your timeframe? Do you mind elaborating on this matter a bit? As I have been trying this approach.
I take off as higher time frames like weekly down to the 5 minutes, but it really depends on the market conditions and what i am looking for at the time (intra day trading or swing trading).

In the most of times I use the 4 and 1 hour as my main time frames to look for the background and decide if I would go long or short if theres an opportunity, so after that I down to the 15 or 5 minutes to get an entry.. I preffer the 15 minutes to get entrys since its more reliable in my opinion, the 5 minutes chart can be misleading sometimes.

Lookin at your posts I saw you're only taking the 5 minute chart into consideration when taking a trade.. this can work if you gonna take a quick trade on the market as well but I think it's a harder way to trade. Look at your post today at the EU for example, at the 5 minutes you saw a test and went long on it, thats was a ok entry if you had only lookin at this timeframe, but if you take time and look at the bigger time frames you would have seen that pros were bearish today, take a look at the 30 min chart for example
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  • #28,531
  • Edited 7:09pm Mar 30, 2017 6:42pm | Edited 7:09pm
Quoting Whatsmyname
{quote}Do you mind elaborating on this matter a bit? As I have been trying this approach.
At the time of this trade on GU that you have posted yestarday I was lookin mainly to the 1 hour, take a look at the chart below

Today we had some nice selling as well

Quoting Sonofsin5
{quote} Yesterdays analysis played out very well. Much more room higher to go If the strength continues. Volume will tell us.
Great post, love your analysis.. this post made me think about taking a closer look at the COT reports as well, ill take some time to study it

Quoting LuckyMind
Maybe someone know any analogs of this two marked indicators? Or how them work maybe ill be able to code it, im become really interesting in them {image}
I think the bar named as "chart mode" is a trend based bar.. look at the moving average, looks like they have the same colors

The second one named as "volume gauge" probably measure bullish and bearish volume: increasing volume on up bars/candles and decreasing volume on down bars/candles mean bullish volume - green; increasing volume on down bars and decreasing volume on up bars mean bearish volume - red;
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  • #28,532
  • Mar 30, 2017 10:18pm Mar 30, 2017 10:18pm
Quoting pres78
EURUSD - there was never any reason today to be looking to go long. Shorts all the way today on this pair. {image}

hey ya pres78!

were you expectin & waitin for the news to break out first & then enter a trade? there was a nice opportunity to enter a short on NYO (on 30m), the scoundrels purposely marked up the price to scare the shit out of me (I confess I scared out ) but this markin up only ended as an upthrust (VSA trap-up move). How do you deal with such a situation? were you expecting some news & waited?
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,533
  • Mar 31, 2017 12:59am Mar 31, 2017 12:59am
the reverse shake-outs are not uncommon infact in down trend they provide a nice opportunity to go short. Yesterday on NYO there was selling (increased volume up bar close off the high) & as a result prices were marked down. Now all of a sudden prices are marked up again totally "unexpected" & we see a close back into the range (what the hell!!). Then it was followed by an upthrust & the marking down resumed. This entire exercise was to shake out retail traders & trigger stops & trap anyone who went long.

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the score was:

Rotten scoundrels: 1
VCV13: 0

till next time
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,534
  • Mar 31, 2017 5:13am Mar 31, 2017 5:13am
Quoting odines
{quote} I take off as higher time frames like weekly down to the 5 minutes, but it really depends on the market conditions and what i am looking for at the time (intra day trading or swing trading). In the most of times I use the 4 and 1 hour as my main time frames to look for the background and decide if I would go long or short if theres an opportunity, so after that I down to the 15 or 5 minutes to get an entry.. I preffer the 15 minutes to get entrys since its more reliable in my opinion, the 5 minutes chart can be misleading sometimes. Lookin...
Great explanation odines. Thanks a lot.

This form of analyis is quite new to me, so trying to put into practice what I studied. I was looking only at the m5 timeframe. The reason for my entry was to test my reading skills. I am glad I was able to identify the test on the single timeframe.

At the time of entry I was aware that we are in an overall bearish market, but was looking for a pullback. I figured the climatic selling I was referring to, would give the pullback. Soon after I saw the No Demand Candles I moved my stop to BE including commision.

May I ask, how would you proceed after the m30 up thrust? Would you look for No Demand candles on the lower timeframe? This is something I need to be working on. I am not sure if the m30 timeframe as a guide is sufficient enough to go down to m5 or m15.

Trying to incorporate your idea, after the Up Thrust you'd go to the lower timeframe m15 or m5 (preferrably m15 I assume) and look for further (confirming) signs of weakness such as No Demand candles or more Up Thrusts. Attached is the m5 chart after the facts.

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The yellow rectangle is the m30 UT. After the UT on m30 we see on m5 No Demand Candles and further UT.

If looking at m5 only, I'd see there is effort to push prices higher. This is basically bullish action. However price was barely able to penetrate resistance on very high volume. If that was true strength, I'd expect price to close faily above the resistance (supply) line. So we have no results after an effort to rise, which is a sign of weakness.
Never stop to learn
  • #28,535
  • Mar 31, 2017 5:19am Mar 31, 2017 5:19am
Quoting odines
{quote} At the time of this trade on GU that you have posted yestarday I was lookin mainly to the 1 hour, take a look at the chart below Today we had some nice selling as well {quote} {image}
Very interesting
Never stop to learn
  • #28,536
  • Mar 31, 2017 5:29am Mar 31, 2017 5:29am
Quoting Vcv13
the reverse shake-outs are not uncommon infact in down trend they provide a nice opportunity to go short. Yesterday on NYO there was selling (increased volume up bar close off the high) & as a result prices were marked down. Now all of a sudden prices are marked up again totally "unexpected" & we see a close back into the range (what the hell!!). Then it was followed by an upthrust & the marking down resumed. This entire exercise was to shake out retail traders & trigger stops & trap anyone who went long. {image} {image} the score was: Rotten scoundrels:...
Hi Vcv13,

could you explain me how LO was confirming the redistribution? When I saw that candle I took it as a Mark down. That was basically partially a reason why I was looking at move up (a pullback that is).
Never stop to learn
  • #28,537
  • Mar 31, 2017 6:59pm Mar 31, 2017 6:59pm
Quoting Whatsmyname
{quote} Great explanation odines. Thanks a lot. This form of analyis is quite new to me, so trying to put into practice what I studied. I was looking only at the m5 timeframe. The reason for my entry was to test my reading skills. I am glad I was able to identify the test on the single timeframe. At the time of entry I was aware that we are in an overall bearish market, but was looking for a pullback. I figured the climatic selling I was referring to, would give the pullback. Soon after I saw the No Demand Candles I moved my stop to BE including...
Yes after seeing the weakness at 30 minutes I would go look for ND's at lower time frames like 5 or 15 minutes. About the 30 min timeframe not being sufficient enough... I use all the timeframes starting with the weekly down to the 5 minutes so Im aware of whats happenning on the bigger time frames as well, I just mentioned the 30 min because it was a clear chart to see the signs of weakness at that day.
  • #28,538
  • Apr 1, 2017 1:46am Apr 1, 2017 1:46am
Quoting Whatsmyname
{quote} Hi Vcv13, could you explain me how LO was confirming the redistribution? When I saw that candle I took it as a Mark down. That was basically partially a reason why I was looking at move up (a pullback that is).

the pullback after that mark down was quite weak, even then it was highly unlikely the support would hold as there was distribution & markdown phase in the background.

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The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,539
  • Apr 1, 2017 7:18am Apr 1, 2017 7:18am
Quoting odines
{quote} I think the bar named as "chart mode" is a trend based bar.. look at the moving average, looks like they have the same colors The second one named as "volume gauge" probably measure bullish and bearish volume: increasing volume on up bars/candles and decreasing volume on down bars/candles mean bullish volume - green; increasing volume on down bars and decreasing volume on up bars mean bearish volume - red; {image}
Yes, i thought that chart mode is kind of trend and also that its looks like hull, but sometimes its different, so..
About volume indi had similar thoughts as yours. But dont think i can code it, without knowing exactly how they works
  • #28,540
  • Apr 1, 2017 9:53am Apr 1, 2017 9:53am
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} Yes, i thought that chart mode is kind of trend and also that its looks like hull, but sometimes its different, so.. About volume indi had similar thoughts as yours. But dont think i can code it, without knowing exactly how they works
There's a TradeGuider software that works exactly like this that you have posted.. SMART do the same thought, but both are paid software
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