Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

And one more post copied here on my thread with no DISRESPECT to Connors who is one of the more knowledgeable Forex retail traders. If anyone cares to please ask him to read my comments here and I would welcome his reply.

Here it is and my comments will follow. He posted this at 11:39 AM Eastern Standard Time.

 

1. Post 1,100,036
2. Cleanup
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4. Mar 28, 11:39am (14 min ago)

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar438605_3.gif Connors
2. Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 1,169 Posts | Invisible

Quoting jusstin911
{quote} Thanks Connors.. I just hope this is it.. Looking at the 1htf, it might give us a better clue... indeed an untradeable day we having.. If ever it's ready to drop, what do you have a target? I have 1.067-68 ...
See my earlier post from morning mate.
I am looking at 1.0620 of course not today, daily would expect 1.0820s, dont think gap will be filled just yet.
Tomorrow most likely another run to 1.0900 but expect a lower high and then it is set for me. That's the plan I have on me mind.

Comments from Benjaminis: That is the FLAW and DANGER of trading Forex using just the charts. It creates FAKE NEWS (SMILE)
You cannot decide in advance. You cannot build a bias into your trading. You cannot be a consistent winner trading without an EDGE. Your EDGE needs to come with CORRELATION. Using the charts by themselves guarantees FAILURE.

I really want to help Retail Forex Traders make money however unless you change your mindset that is almost impossible. Time to make my lunch now and hope to see some replies even if you do not agree with me. Communication is always the KEY to success.

I am now thinking about thinking of putting on Two Trades after 2:00 PM

Here is why ... Se the 5 Minute Chart below on Dow 30...

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

5 Minute Chart from Finviz on 10 Year US Bonds

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

We have RISK OFF so money is flowing out of the US Bonds now into the Equities and the YIELDS are moving back towards 250 !!!

Eventually the US Bonds go down along with the Equity Markets when the US Government shuts down.

Because of HIGH CONSUMER Optimism which is FAKE NEWS (SMILE) and because they do not want the Dow and SPX500 to set a bad record of a longest losing streak then I will look to put on at least one SHORT Position on US 30 and SPX500.

LOOK LADIES AND GENTLEMAN .... EVERYTHING IS GREAT IN THE USA - PARTY TIME...

https://mishtalk.com/2017/03/28/cons...ian-indicator/


Consumer Confidence Strongest Since December 2000: A Strong Contrarian Indicator?

28TuesdayMar 2017

Posted by Mish | March 28, 2017 10:28:52 | Economics

≈

Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence are similar measures by two different organizations. The former is from the University of Michigan, the latter is by the Conference Board.


Consumer Confidence soared to 125.6 in March, up from 116.1 in February. This is the strongest reading in over 16 years.


Bloomberg Econoday cites the strength in both the current index and the expectations index, emphasis mine.

Highlights
It was two cycles ago that the consumer confidence index has been this high, at 125.6 in March for the strongest reading since December 2000. At 113.8, the expectations component hasn’t been this high since September 2000. The present situation component is at 143.1 for its best reading since August 2001 which was just at the end of the 1991 to 2001 economic cycle.


Subcomponents in the present situation are closely watched for indications on the monthly employment report and today’s results are very positive. Fewer, at 19.5 vs 19.9 percent, say jobs are hard to get this month and many more, at 31.7 vs February’s 26.9 percent, say jobs are plentiful.


A key reading on the expectations side is income, and here too the results are very positive. More this month, at 21.5 vs 19.2 percent, see their income increasing over the next six months and fewer, at only 7.0 vs 8.1 percent, see their income declining.


Buying plans are mixed with autos up but homes down. A negative in the report is a 2 tenths decline in 12-month inflation expectations to only 4.6 percent which is very low for this reading.


Consumers are extremely upbeat right now though the lack of inflation expectations doesn’t quite fit. What else doesn’t fit is actual consumer spending which has failed to match the strength underway in confidence. Watch on Friday for the consumer sentiment report which breaks down what it describes as unprecedented polarization in its sample between the optimism of Republicans and the pessimism of Democrats.


Questioning the Numbers
The conference board surveys 3,000 people every month.

Is 3,000 a sufficiently large number to map out confidence levels for the entire nation? I will ask Salil Mehta at Statistical Ideas for feedback on that question.

The more pertinent question, which I have discussed before, is: Does consumer confidence track spending?

That’s a widely held belief. And every month Econoday reinforces that belief with this statement: “While the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.”


Consumer Sentiment Snake Oil
On March 21, I wrote Consumer Sentiment Statistical Noise: Modern Day Snake Oil.
The charts I posted compared “consumer sentiment” by the University of Michigan, not “consumer confidence” by the conference board. The latter charges for its information. What follows is a set of charts from the preceding link.
Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail Sales
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=265
As you can see, retail sales keep marching higher and higher, slowing or stalling only in recessions. This is not an accurate comparison because the population is constantly growing.

I will adjust the chart in a moment, but first, let’s consider the population effect.
Total US Population
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=267
US Population Percent Change From Year Ago
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=266
The impact of population growth is one of the factors that affect sales growth.

But age itself is a factor. The spending habits and needs of someone of age 3 are far different from someone age 13, 23, 43, 63, or 83.
Nonetheless, we can make a crude adjustment to retail sales by factoring in population changes.
Sentiment vs Retail Sales Percent Change Minus Population Percent Change
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=266
If that chart suggests anything, I sure don’t know what, other than volatility in sentiment is far bigger than volatility in retail sales.
Let’s adjust sentiment volatility by a factor of six to see if that helps.

Sentiment/6 vs Retail Sales Percent Change Minus Population Percent Change
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=265
That chart looks like statistical noise. Sometimes the directions match sometimes they don’t. Perhaps month-to-month correlations are simply too frequent.

Population Adjusted Retail Sales vs Consumer Sentiment Percent Change From Year Ago
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=266
Let’s hone in on that for an amusing look.
Population Adjusted Retail Sales vs Consumer Sentiment Percent Change From Year Ago – Detail
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=262

Modern Day Snake Oil
I was discussing economic indicators with Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog a couple of days ago. He pinged me with the correct takeaway.


Economic forecasting is not a science, and it is actually not the task of economic science to make forecasts (contrary to what is commonly asserted).

Forecasting is akin to the task of the historian. Mises called speculators “historians of the future”.


Economic laws only play a role insofar as they can be used as constraints for a forecast. The problem is that all these models simply look at the data of economic history, at statistical series that always turn tail “unexpectedly”, driven by human action.


All these mathematical models are complete humbug. It is modern-day snake oil.



Politics vs Sentiment
The above charts are sufficient to prove the snake oiliness of equating sentiment to spending as a predictor of anything.

The story gets even more amusing if you dive into further details of the University of Michigan survey.

The overall level of consumer sentiment remained quite favorable in early March due to renewed strength in current economic conditions as well as the extraordinary influence of partisanship on economic prospects. The Current Economic Conditions component reached its highest level since 2000, largely due to improved personal finances.

While current economic conditions were not affected by partisanship, this was not true for the component about future economic prospects: among Democrats, the Expectations Index at 55.3 signaled that a deep recession was imminent, while among Republicans the Index at 122.4 indicated a new era of robust economic growth was ahead.

Interestingly, those who self-identified as Independents had an Expectations Index of 88.3, which was nearly equal to the midpoint of the partisan difference.

Importantly, there was no moderation in these extreme views from last month, with the maintenance of the partisan divide fueled by selective attention to economic news, with Democrats more frequently reporting unfavorable developments and Republicans more frequently hearing of favorable changes. Overall, the sentiment data has been characterized by rising optimism as well as by rising uncertainty due to the partisan divide. Optimism promotes discretionary spending, and uncertainty makes consumers more cautious spenders. This combination will result in uneven spending gains over time and across products.


Look Ahead Index of Sentiment

1. Democrats: 55.3 Supposedly this signals “a deep recession is imminent.”
2. Republicans: 122.4 Supposedly this indicates “a new era of robust economic growth is ahead“.
3. Independents: 88.3 That is “nearly equal to the midpoint of the partisan difference.”

Consumer sentiment suggests a deep recession within a new era of economic growth in which nothing much at all happens. Economists believe consumer spending will follow.

What Does Sentiment Match?
John Hussman provided the chart that got me diving into the above results. Once again, here it is:
Consumer Confidence vs. S&P 500
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=474
How Contrarian Is Such Confidence?
Belief in these measures of confidence and sentiment is high but the charts show such faith is seriously misplaced.


Moreover, please note that sentiment peaked just before the 2001 recession. It would be a fitting irony if the same happened again.

Why shouldn’t that be the case again?

Hussman Tweeted, and I strongly agree, “Multi-year highs in consumer confidence are less a sign of forthcoming consumer spending as a sign of forthcoming investor losses.”


Mike “Mish” Shedlock

I will look at all the normal criteria on the Technical side and I still might NOT do the trades as I am just thinking about doing it. I NEED MY EDGE before trading and doing nothing is also winning if I am NOT losing.


Benjaminis

I Benjamin

Thank you for your posts. (I still have some chats up reading to do. )

I think the Dow and especially the SPX500 is approaching a strong resistant level. Lets see at 2pm where the markets is at and if there is signs of exhaustion.

https://dailyreckoning.com/trumps-4-...20Notification

https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...25-650x360.jpg
https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...idStockman.jpg
BY DAVID STOCKMAN
POSTED
MARCH 27, 2017


Trump's $4 Trillion Fiscal Hole

[Ed. Note: To see exactly what this former Reagan insider has to say about Trump and the fiscal threats from politics and the debt ceiling, David Stockman is sending out a copy of his book Trumped! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring It Back to any American willing to listen – before it is too late. To learn how to get your free copy CLICK HERE.]


The “you ain’t seen nothing yet” rule applies from here on out.

The GOP was unified on Obamacare “repeal” but completely fractured on “replace,” both on policy philosophy and fiscal cost.


That particular chapter of the “replace” saga, however, is chicken feed compared to finding a coherent majority on measures to “replace” the $4 trillion of revenue loss from the corporate and individual tax cuts promised by Trump and embraced widely by the GOP rank and file.


Wall Street has been drooling about the prospect of cutting the corporate rate to 20% and other related corporate tax reforms. These measures would reduce revenue by $2.1 trillion over a decade.


On top of that, there’s the revenue loss from lowering the top individual tax rate to 33%, collapsing the tax brackets from seven down to three (33% 25% and 12%) and raising the standard deduction.


That’s another $2 trillionof Federal receipts gone missing over the next decade, thereby widening the fiscal hole to the above mentioned$4 trillion.


Good luck with that, as the kids say. So with a $4 trillion funding hold, the Trump Stimulus is heading for oblivion.


But here’s the true shocker of the present moment in American governance…



The Trump White House and purported GOP majority on Capitol Hill are structurally incapable of cutting even $1 from the Federal government’s current $4.2 trillion annual spending level.


That’s right. I’m not being figurative here. I mean that the motley ruling party on display Friday afternoon is literally incapable of cutting one single net dollar of Federal spending from the current built-in baseline.


In a word, Trump’s $54 billionper year defense increase will more than exceed any potential cuts in discretionary spending that the fragile GOP majorities could agree upon. At the same time, 80% of non-defense spending is accounted for by entitlements and interest payments.


Trump has taken the former off the table, of course, while the latter is untouchable.

In short, the vaunted pivot to “tax cuts” purportedly now underway is equivalent to that of a pole-vaulter unaware of the fact that on the far side of the bar is a pit with virtually no bottom.


That is to say, repealing taxes is even easier to advocate than repealing Obamacare, but replacing the $4 trillionrevenue loss is next to impossible.


What this boils down to is that the Trump/GOP government has a $4 trillion promiseand virtually zero capacity to fund it. And that fiscal hole is absolutely real because the GOP Congressional leaders’ insistence that the tax bill must be “deficit neutral” is more than warranted.


Indeed, the whole tax cutting charade is being conducted atop a fiscal volcano that is already rumbling with anticipatory temblors.


As shown below, under the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) current law projections issued in January, the Federal deficit is set to soar based on the explosion of entitlement and medical spending relative to revenue growth, and will reach $1.4 trillionper year by 2027. That means that over the 10-year period nearly $10 trillion would be added to the public debt.


Moreover, that’s just the happy time view of the fiscal outlook. The CBO projections are based on the absurd economic assumption that the there will be no U.S. recession for 206 months running (e.g. between June 2009 and September 2027).


That has never happened in human history, and is twice the business cycle expansion of 119 months that occurred during Greenspan’s unsustainable tech and dotcom boom of the 1990s.




Additionally, Congress has learned every trick in the budget accounting books about how to make the out-year deficit appear lower than it actually is so that it can keep kicking the debt monster down the road.


Thus, even Brookings Institution has dropped a dime on the CBO by calling out the accounting games it feels necessary to accommodate in its long range projections. By using a concept called “current services” (which is what we always used back in the day), which projects Congress’actual policies over the 10-year horizon, Brookings concluded that even under CBO’s Rosy Scenario economic assumptions, the cumulative deficit will actually total $11.4 trillionover the period.


And more crucially, that by 2027 the annual deficit will hit $1.7 trillionor 6.1% of GDP — and keep rising from there.


The reason is simple. The Brookings revision just removed all the “make pretends” from the CBO projection, such as the fact that upwards of$850 billionof tax measures are counted in the CBO revenue baseline that will never materialize in the real world.


That’s because Congress habitually postpones the effective date of certain Obamacare tax increases (e.g. the tanning tax and the levy on medical devices) or extends at the last minute a huge range of tax “incentives” that are conveniently scheduled to “expire” several years down the road, but never do. The wind energy credit boondoggle is one case in point.


In sum, the Trump/GOP coalition is in a massive inherited debt trap, and therefore has zero wiggle room to enact the kind of sweeping, deficit-financed Reaganesque tax cuts that Wall Street is peddling to the homegamers in order to herd them to the slaughter one last time.


Indeed, even setting aside the CBO’s drastic undercount of the real outyear deficit path, its January update contains a singular number that demonstrates why this week’s pivot to tax cutting will quickly degenerate into a legislative tailspin.


That number is well over $30 trillionand is found on page 29 of the report. It’s CBO’s official projection of the total public debt in 2027 before a single dime of the Trump/GOP tax cut is paid for.
https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...citsreturn.png
Here’s the skunk in the woodpile…

Congress can’t even start the tax cutting process until both Houses have passed a 10-year budget resolutionfor FY 2018, which contains “reconciliation instructions” on the magnitude of the tax cuts and the basket of “payfors” that would off-set a major share of the revenue loss.


On this front, the White House is even more clueless than it was on Obamacare repeal and replace. In recent days, for example, the S&L guy at the Treasury Department, Steve Mnuchin, has been insisting that the tax cuts could be enacted by the August recess — even if that is on the ambitious side by his own reckoning.


No, that is pure rookie gibberish. Before giving any consideration to spending cuts or so-called dynamic forecasting of revenue “reflows” from tax cuts, the House GOP would have to pass a budget resolution that increased the public debt to $34 trillion and left a $2 trillion or 7.5% of GDPdeficit by 2027.


That’s not going to happen in a million years — let alone by the August recess. And spending cuts and revenue reflows will not materially mitigate that reality.

In any event, it now appears that the casino is beginning to get the message based on the modest sell-off today and last week. But do not wait for the talking heads of bubblevision to signal the all-clear and that it’s again time to buy-the-dip.


Actually, it’s just another warning sign that reality is closing in on the great financial fantasy of our times, and that getting out of the casino with all deliberate haste is the only prudent thing left to do.

Regards,
David Stockman
for The Daily Reckoning
Ed. Note: Sign up for a FREE subscription toThe Daily Reckoning, By taking advantage now, you’re ensuring that you’ll be set up for updates and issues in the future. It’s FREE.
https://ads.agorafinancial.com/www/d...&cb=9629892d05
https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...99-225x125.jpg


COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: David Stockman who SURELY KNOWS makes it clear. FAKE NEWS (SMILE) PERCEPTIONS against REALITY .....

SO NOW YOU KNOW...


https://ads.agorafinancial.com/www/d...&cb=900c236120

I have a question for Teek who is out enjoying the SUN and KeepCalmfx who is working very hard on many things and anyone else that cares to reply.

I do not KNOW how I can break through to retail Forex traders to get with the program. Any program is good if you make money.

Here are the posts from EUR/USD that I just read and copied and post here now in FULL !!!

After it is read please explain to me what needs to be done if anything to change the MINDSET of nice decent people who get mad at G-D (JOKE) although it was said in his post. Get MAD at yourself for wanting to just throw away money. Give it to Charity instead even if is your own charity which should be yourself.

HERE WE GO !!!

 

1. Post 1,100,068
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4. Mar 28, 12:57pm (34 min ago)

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar438701_2.gif TudorIoan
2. Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Technometrics Freak | 3,818 Posts

Quoting TudorIoan
Frustration. My sentiment is bullish, my position is bearish. Starting my scalping day: SL 1.0869 sold 1.0858 T1 1.0847 T2 1.0836
BAMMM! 1.0836
Finally, my T2 hit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fk you, God!
....after got stopped 4 times today!
A big zero profit for me today
"If you can make it intraday, you can make it anyway" - me
EUR/USD

1

 

1. Post 1,100,069
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4. Mar 28, 12:58pm (33 min ago)

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar413248_2.gif SteFX85
2. Joined May 2015 | Status: Member | 289 Posts

Quoting hilmy83
{quote} i will rape both of you in fifa
LOL !
Plan the Trade / Trade the Plan

1

 

1. Post 1,100,070
2. Cleanup
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4. Mar 28, 1:03pm (28 min ago)

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar568444_7.gif Tradingwithw
2. | New Member | Status: Member | 12 Posts

Quoting Connors
{quote} I take the open and close at 00:00 UK time which was 1.08475, day high is @ 1.09053 and day close not US but day close is 1.0860. Long shadow on the upside and little shadow on the downside. Yes parrots? What about them?
Oh I see- very interesting, why do you choose those times?

Was not trying to be rude, as I was not incorrect. unlike your friend Tudor seems to think. Which makes me wonder what he justifies as a veteran trader. I suppose it's based of post count only....certainly not based of coherent trading ability.

Anyway, I digress and am not looking for an internet fight- thank you for the answer, very interesting take on the market open and close....for what it's worth... I can guarantee you, as someone associated with institutional trading (I am an Economist, not a trader) banks certainly don't look at the closes the way you do (99% of the rest of the world use NY open/close). Then again if it serves you well then best of luck to you...perhaps that is your edge!

I now have 5 positions on and will hold them for nice profits based on my EDGE.

Here are my open positions...SCREENSHOT WILL FOLLOW EVENTUALLY (SMILE) KeepCalmfx please fly to Montreal.

I am short 2 positions of 100 units of US 30. My first trade was put on at 1:58 PM Eastern Standard Time at 20,693.60 and my second position was put on at 2:25 PM Eastern Standard Time at 20,723.10...

I at the same two times of 1:58 PM and 2:25 PM shorted 2 more positions of 100 units at 2,358.92 SPX500 and 2,362.77.

I just added one position of 100 units of USD/JPY at 15:59 PM Eastern Standard Time at 111.143

My DRAW UP at this Second is $1252.60 and I will CLOSE ALL MY POSITIONS BECAUSE I CAN (SMILE)

Well I just closed one position of 100 units of SPX500 at 2,356.92 for LOCKED IN PROFIT of $585 US Dollars.


Now I closed my first US 30 position at 20,690.00

I put limit out for my last two positions.

STAY TUNED .... My Total Equity now shows at $60,336.77 US DOLLARS !!!

My three closed positions have earned $952.11 US Dollars

OK now all five positions are closed with LOCKED in PROFITS of $1420.11 US Dollars done between 1:58 PM Eastern Standard Time and 4:45 PM.

Not bad for less than 3 hours work with BASICALLY NO REAL RISK and NICE PROFITS so as you can see that I do exactly what I say that I will do with DISCIPLINE AND PATIENCE.

Why do you not want to make the BIG BUCKS ?

In case people do not know my style or sense of humor whether you learn or do not learn will not change my life or my trading however if you really want to learn then all you need to do is get involved. Have a nice evening or morning or night as for myself I just keep on keeping on.


Benjaminis

"I have a question for Teek who is out enjoying the SUN"
I love it. I appreciate nothing more than being out in the sun. There's nothing like it.

To answer your question:
- the EUR/USD forum is a very "difficult" environment and since I am at FF there is not a day that I don't read that forum and ask myself "why do I post here and waste my time like this?"
The anwser is simple. There are some (few) very nice poeple who actualy took their time to get in contact with me, asked me some questions, we got to talk a little bit... social contacts with likeminded people who don't mind being of a different opinions from time to time. We never stop learning (well, we shouldn't).
Some of them said "thank you for your work Teek, I profit from it every week".
This keeps me going. I like this. It makes me happy to see people develop and learn and when they take off and report some "hey Teek I made xyz pips today" it really makes me chin up sometimes because I am proud on that. It makes me happy. "Do what makes you happy"... I do

As a technical analyst and trader I can not always be right. In my analysis I am about 60% right thoughout the year, sometimes more, sometimes less, but it evens out at around 60%. Now, people who are not familiar with TA in Forex markets (not talking Stocks here) might now say "what? That guy is only 60% what a joke lol". Well, the truth is, 60% spot on technical analysis of the Forex markets is pretty good, in fact it's damn high. But some people, especialy inexperienced people or flat out stubborn people are more concerned about "I am right and you are wrong" than about "making money with trading".
Trading never was and never will be about "being right". Once you learn this, and apply proper risk management, you are good. Anything else comes with time and experience.
And it is damn hard to "reach" these kind of people, and believe me, some of them you don't want here. Some other I did send here, and I know they read with great interest

Oh btw, answering emails would be a good step to keep good people in the boat Ben
Good night

Excellent post as always mate.
Cheers.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Republican Controlled House Committee Passes Measure to Audit the Fed
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...ure-234204.jpg
by The_Real_Fly
Mar 28, 2017 8:45 PM


If you ever had any reservations about who's shilling for the Federal Reserve, look no further than today's vote on increasing oversight into the Federal Reserve, including an audit.


The bill was passed by way of verbal vote and will now be introduced to the House, where it will likely be killed by shills.


Several democrats, including Stephen Lynch from Massachusetts, had voted to audit the Fed back in 2012 and 2014 -- but are now against it. Why you ponder? They've had a change of heart, especially since the bill has a real chance of passing. They cited an aversion to 'political interference' at the Fed.
Right.


Source: Reuters
"We should not in any way hinder their independence," said Representative Carolyn Maloney, a New York Democrat, echoing the sentiment of Fed policymakers who say they could come under political pressure to avoid making unpopular decisions such as raising interest rates to slow growth and control inflation.

“This bill would open the floodgates to political interference in monetary-policy making,” said Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, a Democrat from the District of Columbia.

Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a Democrat from New York, said the measure would lead to higher interest rates because it would undermine the market’s confidence in the independence of the central bank.

Republicans said the measure was needed to rein in the Fed.

“It is ironic that the arsonists that caused the financial collapse are now being given credit...for putting out the fire. Almost every macroeconomist concedes in retrospect that [the Fed’s] extended period of easy money led to the financial crisis,” said Rep. Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky.


Did you read what Rep. Maloney actually said? She believes that if we looked into the Fed's business, they'd punish us with higher interest rates. What are they hiding?

Absurd.

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

THE FED MUST BE AUDITED AND ALSO PUT OUT OF BUSINESS !!!

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2017/0...r-trading.html

SATURDAY, MARCH 25, 2017
Coaching Yourself for a Better Trading Psychology
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CcTwShvjS...20/Coaches.jpg
Thanks once again to the good folks at Futures.io, who hosted the recent webinar on techniques for changing your trading psychology. The recording of that session is now up on YouTube. I appreciate Mike, Terry, and crew making that available for those who could not attend live. We had over 250 attendees and many more questions than I had time to answer. In August, therefore, I'll do another session with Futures.io, but this time with the sole focus of Q&A. Traders can ask me any question about any trading (or life) problem, and I'll respond with ways I deal with those challenges as a psychologist and coach. As the time gets closer, I'll post instructions for registering for that session.

In this post, I'd like to elaborate on a point made in the recent webinar:

What traders typically identify as psychological problems in trading are usually the result of an underlying problem and not the problem itself. Successfully dealing with the issue means identifying and addressing its cause.

This is a very important concept, and it's what distinguishes would-be trading coaches from actual psychologists. Very often the wannabe coach has a favorite tool or set of techniques for dealing with trader issues. It's one size fits all. A psychologist recognizes that the problems people experience can have many causes and first tries to determine where the problem is coming from.

Let's take a typical example of a trader complaining of lapses in discipline. The trader trades well for a while, then overtrades and loses more money than is prudent. The trader asks the coach, "How can I solve this problem?"

It's the wrong question. The right question is, "Where is this problem coming from?" It's only after asking that question that we can figure out a possible solution.

Consider the following possible causes of lapses in trading discipline:

* The trader is trying to focus on screens continually for an extended time and is becoming fatigued, with a resulting loss of willpower;

* The trader is distracted by problems in his/her personal life, perhaps upset about arguments at home or financial issues;

* The trader suffers from attention deficit disorder and resulting impulsivity;

* The trader has become frustrated by recent trading losses, as these trigger past feelings of being a loser;

* The trader has failed to adapt to a lower volume/lower volatility market and is now trading breakouts/momentum that fail to materialize.

You get the idea. Loss of discipline is not the problem. Loss of discipline is the result of a problem, and we have to diagnose that problem to figure out how to address it. Filling out trading journals and checklists will not help the trader deal with personal issues at home or medical issues regarding ADD. Working on mindfulness and awareness/control of emotions will not help a trader adapt to a changing market regime or address past psychological conflicts. All of those techniques are useful in certain situations; none are universal solutions for our trading psychology.

The starting point for identifying causes of our trading psychology challenges is creating a catalogue of instances when those challenges are and aren't occurring. So, for example, we would note when we are having more trouble with discipline in trading and we would jot down what is occurring at those times: what's happening in markets, what's going on in our minds, what's happening in our personal lives, etc. We would also write down occasions when we're faring much better in our discipline and what is going on at those occasions. As we catalogue instances, we begin to notice patterns and those provide excellent clues as to potential sources of our trading woes.

The most important distinction is between issues that occur solely within the trading context and issues that also occur outside of trading and/or that have occurred in our past. If we're lacking discipline in our personal lives (perhaps by not paying bills on time, by being easily distracted, by being emotionally upset), that is different from situations where discipline lapses are specific to the trading context. Very often the connection is an emotional one: the frustration that triggers the lapse of discipline is a frustration that is being felt in other parts of the trader's life and/or that has been felt during the trader's past.

Very often, as you catalogue the waxing and waning of problem patterns, you'll see that working with a dedicated trading coach is not the answer. If the problem is a conflict from your past repeating itself in your trading, a competent counselor or therapist can help with this. If the problem is an attention deficit that has been present since our youth, this can be addressed medically and perhaps via biofeedback training. If the problem is adapting to changing market conditions, perhaps what is needed is some mentoring from an experienced trader.

We can coach ourselves for a better trading psychology by paying close attention to the triggers of our trading challenges. Asking the right questions greatly increases the odds of finding solutions for our trading.

Further Reading:

Brief Therapy for the Mentally Well

More Therapy for the Mentally Well

Four Triggers for Trading Psychology Problems

A Powerful Change Technique for Our Trading Psychology

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2007_12_01_archive.html

Coaching Yourself for Profitable Trading Performance in 2008
In my recent post, I mentioned that there is a considerable overlap between coaching and the short-term approaches to behavior change known as brief therapy. Many traders try to make accelerated changes in their cognitive, behavioral, and emotional patterns without understanding how such changes can be made and sustained. Indeed, few of the professional trading coaches that I've met seem to be aware of the brief therapy literature and the extensive research on change and how it occurs.

So how can you use this growing area of research and practice to aid your progress in 2008? Here are a few findings from the brief therapy world and their implications for coaching yourself to successful trading performance:

1) Keep It Focused - The research is unequivocal: focused efforts at change are more likely to occur--and more likely to occur in a relatively brief time frame--than efforts to change many things at one time. Establishing and maintaining a change focus is perhaps the single most important thing one can do to ensure that efforts at improvement will pay off. The focus should be grounded in a thorough assessment of the problems to be addressed and the strengths to be built upon. Many times traders assume that their problem is one thing or another, when in fact they haven't really drilled down into their trade data to identify what, specifically, they're doing right or wrong. Working on something broad and vague, such as "discipline", is not a focus. Focused changes should identify specific things to do differently and concrete steps to make a difference.

2) Keep It Consistent - Research into short-term change finds that involvement in the change process--consistent efforts over time--is associated with success. Traders who work on their trading in a structured, daily fashion are much more likely to benefit from coaching than those who limit their change efforts to weekly or monthly reviews. The goal of all short-term change is to create new, positive habit patterns. It is impossible to create those patterns without regularity: doing new things so consistently that they become part of the self.

3) Keep It Doable - Success breeds optimism, motivation, and further efforts at success. Effective change efforts create a virtuous cycle of continuous improvement. If goals for change are too difficult, they will create only frustration and discouragement. It is better to start small and ensure success than to try to make the most complex changes all at once. If you're working on entering or exiting trades differently, just try it for a single day and see how it goes. Then modify the goal for the next day. By focusing on the next day's trade, you keep goals concrete and doable.

In general, I would say that traders tend to overweight the importance of psychology in their results and underweight trading mechanics: how they execute trade ideas (getting good entry prices, not chasing moves; ensuring that each trade has a favorable reward-to-risk profile) and how they set and follow criteria for exiting trades (price targets as well as stop losses). To be sure, psychological factors can interfere with the implementation of those mechanics, but many traders simply lack sound rules for entering and exiting positions and instead make decisions impulsively, on the fly.

A review of one's own best trades can be very effective in identifying one's own "best practices" regarding trading mechanics. Those best practices can then be translated into focused, doable goals that are pursued with consistency.

Best of luck in your development in 2008. The posts below may be of additional help in your self-coaching efforts.

RELEVANT POSTS:

Predicting Coaching Success

Coaching and Mentorship Resources for Traders

Why Coaching Doesn't Work - Part One

Why Coaching Doesn't Work - Part Two

Coaching the Professional Trader

TUESDAY, MAY 01, 2007
Coaching the Professional Trader: A Consumer's Guide
Coaching has become an institution within American business. According to a recent Harvard Management Update, 86% of companies utilize coaching to enhance the skills of their managers. Indeed, a Harvard Business Review study estimates that 1 billion dollars is spent annually on executive coaching. The article refers to the market for executive coaches as a kind of "wild west", in which "No one has yet demonstrated conclusively what qualifies an executive coach or what makes one approach to executive coaching better than another. Barriers to entry are nonexistent--many executive coaches know little about business, and some know little about coaching." Despite valiant efforts to standardize the field, such as The Executive Coaching Handbook, the plain reality is that coaching in the corporate world is a field without a firm empirical base and without uniformly recognized credentials.

This wild west applies not only to executive coaching, but the gamut of coaching in the trading world. There is a very thin literature dealing with the coaching of traders, and much of that is more applicable to the novice, retail trader than to the established professional. Much of the popular literature, for example, assumes that major goals of coaching are to help traders establish trading plans and stick to these with discipline. This simplistic notion of trading does not begin to capture the complex world of a market maker at an investment bank, who is interacting with trader colleagues, market, and sales professionals through the day. Nor does it ring true to the multimillion dollar portfolio manager at a hedge fund, who might be trading a long/short strategy based upon quantitative valuation models.

While coaching of the retail trader has tended to address the needs and interests of struggling traders, trading coaches are most often sought for professional traders who are already successful. (Many firms, in fact, only hire traders with established track records of success who already have demonstrated successful trading methods and risk management). Very often, the traders seeking coaching are looking to "take it to the next level" by expanding the size and/or scope of their operations. Others are finding that their success increasingly places them in managerial roles, for which they were not trained and which may not represent their true passion. Still others face life challenges apart from trading that might impact their performance.

If you're a professional trader or trading firm considering hiring a trading coach, what should you look for? Here's a brief checklist that might guide your initial search:

* Trader Motivation - My experience across proprietary firms, hedge funds, and investment banks is that the value of coaching is directly proportional to the trader's interest in the process. When the coaching is initiated by management (or HR) with little trader input, it rarely turns into an ongoing, useful process.

* Rapport - A large body of research in psychology suggests that change efforts are most likely to be successful when there is a positive working relationship between the parties involved. Scheduling initial, trial meetings to determine whether or not there is a solid alliance can help avoid wasting much time and energy. If rapport isn't present after a couple of meetings, it most likely won't be there.

* Content Awareness - A trading coach should know something about trading and about the kind of trading engaged in at the relevant setting. The challenges facing a high frequency trader at a prop firm and a portfolio manager at a growing hedge fund are meaningfully different. It is difficult to build a strong rapport if the coach is clueless about the trader's life work.

* A Thorough Assessment Process - Beware the coach who offers a canned program of assistance, one-size-fits-all. The coaching should be bespoke: tailored to the individual's specific needs and circumstances. This means that a thorough assessment process should precede efforts at intervention. It is invaluable, I have found, to include others in that assessment process, such as risk managers, desk managers, MDs, and others coordinating the work of traders.

* Emphasis on Limited, Measurable Goals - If there's one thing that has given coaching a bad name, it's a reliance on buzz words and psychobabble in place of validated methods directed toward measurable aims. Both coach and client should be able to verbalize their specific aims, what they will be doing to reach these, and how they'll know if they're achieved.

* Professionalism and Experience - Who is the coach ultimately working for: the client firm or the trader? How will confidentiality be handled? What feedback will be given to managers of the trading firm? If more specialized help is required (e.g., a psychiatrist), how are referrals handled? How does the initial assessment identify problems that would out outside the coach's scope of practice? An experienced, professional coach will have thought through these issues carefully.

My personal preference is for services that enable traders to become their own trading coaches, rather than dependent upon an external coach. As a helper, that takes me down the path of direct skills teaching, rather than talk counseling. Ultimately, however, what is most important is the fit between the personality and needs of the trader and the style and methods of the coach. Firms should not be hesitant to audition many prospective coaches before settling on one or more to make available to their talent.


Relevant Readings:

Performance Coaching: When It Works, When It Doesn't

Trading Coaches: What Works

Trading Mentors and Coaches: A Resource Linkfest

How Traders Can Become Their Own Coaches

Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.at 8:03 AM

.
WE have something for everyone....Benjaminis TIRED !!!

http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/articles.htm

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The articles below, quite likely the largest free collection of trading psychology articles on the Web, are available for downloading. New articles, particularly on trading techniques, will appear regularly. If you wish to quote an article on your website or elsewhere, please provide the full article citation (title and author) and link back to this site. I do request that websites not reproduce my work for any purpose. Thanks!
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Trader Performance Blog
TraderFeed Posts On Trading Techniques
TraderFeed Posts on Coaching Traders
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MY ARTICLES IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER

Articles on Trading Psychology
A Lesson in Trading Psychology
A Personality Questionnaire for Traders - Parts 1-3
A Trader's Self-Evaluation Checklist
Accepting the Obvious
Addictive Trading
Approaching Trading With an Empty Mind
Assessing Your Personal Strengths -New
Attribution and Bias Among Traders - New
Becoming the Person You Can Be
Becoming Your Own Trading Coach
Behavioral Patterns that Sabotage Traders - Part One
Behavioral Patterns that Sabotage Traders - Part Two
Brief Therapy For Traders (Parts 1-4)
Changing How We Cope
Changing Your Self-Talk By Talking to Yourself
Controlling Emotions is Not the Goal of Trading Psychology
Coping With Risk and Uncertainty
Dead But Dreaming
Destructive Patterns in Trading
Disgust Yourself: A Framework for Rapid Behavior Change -New
Evaluating Your Money Manager
Explaining Market Success
Experts, Novices, and Trading Performance
Expose Yourself
Finding the Zone: New Perspectives on the Mental Game of Trading
Finding Solutions: How Traders Can Become Their Own Therapists
Five Guiding Principles of Trading Psychology - New
Half of What You See in the Market Isn't Real
Hot Risks, Frozen Trader
How Expert Traders Make Decisions - Part One
How Expert Traders Make Decisions - Part Two
How to Manage the Psychological Risks of Trading
How to Regain Your Trading Consistency - New
How to Take a Loss
Improving Your Trading Performance
Information Processing and Trading
Last Exit for the Lost
Learning to Trade
Letting Profits Run: Becoming Your Own Trading Coach
Making Friends With Market Emotions
Marc Greenspoon: A Visit With a World Class Trader - New
Market Psychology Personality Questionnaire
Microspsychology of the Markets
Overcoming Market Panic
Performance Coaching: When It Works, When It Doesn't - New
Personality and Trend Following
Picking Bottoms
Planning Your Losses
Priming for Profits
Quantifying Mind: The Neuropsychology of Trading
Reasoning and Trading
Remapping the Mind: Cognitive Therapy for Traders
Responding to Adversity -
Reversals in Minds and Markets
Risk and Success
Seeking the Path of Least Comfort
Techniques for Overcoming Performance Anxiety in Trading - New
The Greatest Emotional Problem Facing Traders
That Which Cannot Be Said
The Devon Principle
The Dream
The Habit of Mindfulness
The Morality of Trading
The Most Common Problem Traders Face
The Most Important Question to Ask When You're in a Slump
The Personality of the Trader: How It Affects Performance
The Rarest of Trading Virtues - New
The Role of Somatic Markers in Trading Decisions
The Spouse of a Trader: What Makes Marriage Work - New
The Three Vices of Trading
There Are Two Kinds of Traders
Three Dimensions of Trading Questionnaire
Three Market Idiots
Three Pervasive Myths of Trading Psychology
Three Pillars of Expertise
Three Relentless Steps Toward Becoming a Better Trader
Three Thoughts on Freud and Markets
Trader Development
Trader Performance and Epistemology
Trading and Information Processing: Why Traders Sabotage Themselves
Trading as Mental Warfare
Trading as a Performance Sport
Trading by Rules: A Psychological Perspective
Trading the Ranger Way
Trading to Win vs. Trading to Not Lose
Training for Expertise - Chat Session for LBR's Traders
Training for Trading Success
Training New Traders: What Makes for Success
Trusting the Rally
Turning Your Trading Around - Part One
Turning Your Trading Around - Part Two
Turning Your Trading Around - Part Three
What to Look for in a Trading Firm
What Trading Teaches Us About Life
What We Can Learn From Trading and Poker
When The Coaching of Traders Doesn't Work
When to Play
When to Stop Trading - Part One
When to Stop Trading - Part Two
When to Stop Trading - Part Three
Why Do We Trade?
Why Traders Lose Their Discipline
Why Traders Plan Trades But Don't Trade Their Plans
Will Your Portfolio Become a Prisoner of War?
Winning the Race for Trading Profits

Article and Book Excerpts on Trading Psychology
Anticipating Market Turns
Autobiography
Changing Your Mind
Perspectives From Dr. Brett
Preparation in Trading
Repetition and Greatness
Shifts in the Market
Tacit Knowledge and Trading
The Challenge of Changing Yourself
The Mindset of the Successful Trader
The Heroic Dimensions of Trading - New
The Most Important Step in Becoming Your Own Trading Coach - New
The Trader as Psychologist
What It Takes to Win in the Markets

Psychology Articles
Introduction to Brief Therapy
Recommended Readings in Psychology
Solution-Focused Brief Therapy: Doing What Works

Articles on Trading Techniques
A Favorite Trading Pattern - New
A Texbook Pattern: Catching Market Turns
Anatomy of a Trade
Assessing Intraday Trends
Assessing Trader Personality: The Role of Trader Psychometrics - New
Bursting Bubble or Rising Rocket?
Characteristics of Professional Traders
Composite Trend Index
Do Opening Gaps Tend to Fill?
Developing Your Trading Ideas With Web 2.0 Tools
Euro Trading with Weblog Indicators
Filtering Market Signal From Noise
Finding a Framework for Trading
Finding Opportunities in New Markets
Five Guiding Principles of Short-Term Trading - New
Four Keys to Successful Trading
Fundamentals of Short-Term Trading - Part One
Fundamentals of Short-Term Trading - Part Two
Glossary of Indicators Followed on the Trading Psychology Weblog
Google and Gold as Market Bellwethers
Gurdjieff, Turtles, and Trading
How Can I Learn Trading? - New
How I Trade: Handicapping the Odds of Hitting Pivot Points
How I Trade With the Trading Psychology Weblog
How Large an Edge Do You Need for Daytrading? - New
How to Prepare for the Day's Trading
How You Can Track the Stock Market's Large Traders
Hybrid Trading: How Discretionary Traders Can Become More Systematic - New
Identifying Breakout Moves
Institutional Sentiment Measure - download chart
Market Psychology - An Intraday Analysis
Market Volatility and Prospective Price Change
Measuring Trends and Trendiness
Measuring Trends and Trendiness - II
Micropsychology Modeler - Part One
Micropsychology Modeler - Part Two
Micropsychology Modeler - Part Three
Money Flows in the Stock Market - New
My Short-Term Trading System - A Brief Summary
My Swing Trading System
Natural Profits From Synthetic Indices
On Becoming a Swing Trader
Option Volume: Profiting From the Volatility Trade
Overview of the Relative Dollar Volume Flow Indicator - New
Pattern Recognition
Playing Defense in the Markets
Profiting From the Lead Fish
Programmed for Selling
Protracted Buying in the NYSE TICK: What Comes Next? - New
Psychoanalyzing the Market
Relative Range
Resources for Trading
Searching for the Edge
So You Want to Write a Market Blog
SOX to Stocks Ratio
Stages of Change in the Coaching of Traders
Stationarity: One of the Most Important Trading Concepts
Statistical Analysis for Intuitive Traders
Stock Market Psychology: What You See is Not What You Get
Taking What the Market Gives You
The Changing Face of Market Information
The Cost of Common Market Wisdom
The Cumulative DSI - download chart here
The Importance of Stock Selection
The Trend is Your End -
The Value of Market Blogs
Thinking Like a Peak Performance Trader
Three Creative Approaches to Market Analysis
Three Pieces of Trading Wisdom
Three Ways to Develop Your Trading
Time as a Market Indicator
Tracking Sector Performance
Trading by Regimes - New
Trading by the Traffic Lights
Trading Journals that Work
Trade Like a Scientist - Three-Part Series - New
Two Perspectives on a Market Breakout
Using the Trading Psychology Weblog
What a Difference Four Months Make
What Can We Expect From Low Volatility Markets?
What Happened to NASDAQ Trading?
What Short-Term Traders Need to Know
What You Can Learn From the Opening Minutes of Trading
When Does the Market Offer Opportunity?
When Stocks Make Highs, Should You Buy?
Who is in the Market?
Why It Has Been So Hard to Make Money in This Market
Why It Is Valuable to Track the Market Herd
Why the Market Seems to Go Nowhere
Why This Market is So Difficult to Trade: The Long-Term Picture
Will We Ever Break Out of This Range?

Book and Music Reviews
Review of Stock Trader's Almanac and The Almanac Investor - by Jeffrey Hirsch et al.
Preface to The Essentials of Trading by John Forman
Review of The Essentials of Trading by John Forman
Review of Practical Speculation by Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner
Review of Swing Trading by Jon D. Markman

Thank you
one more excellent "thinking" trader reading this forum. Glad you are here mate

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for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

"The most effective way of making everybody serve the single system of ends toward which the social plan is directed is to make everybody believe in those ends. To make a totalitarian system function efficiently, it is not enough that everybody should be forced to work for the same ends. It is essential that the people should come to regard them as their own ends."[p.171]


Berit's comment: Ponder that statement. It helps explain the significance of universal service-learning. Like socialist youth in Nazi (National Socialism) and Communist countries, all must embrace the new ideology. Those who don't -- the intolerable dissenters -- must be silenced.


The next section elaborates:
"Although the beliefs must be chosen for the people and imposed upon them, they must become their beliefs, a generally accepted creed which makes the individuals as far as possible act spontaneously in the way the planner wants. If the feeling of oppression in totalitarian countries is in general much less acute than most people in liberal countries imagine, this is because the totalitarian governments succeed to a high degree in making people think as they want them to."[p.171]





The strategies that accomplish this mental change include numerous subtle and obvious forms of propaganda. Schools, the media, children- and youth-service teams, corporations, etc.... every source of propaganda must share the same vision. Though totalitarian, it will be designed to sound noble, compassionate and fair to all. Yet the result with be the exact opposite.


Ponder this warning from Dr. Thomas Sowell's review of Road to Serfdom:
"At the heart of the socialist vision is the notion that a compassionate society can create more humane living conditions for all through government 'planning' and control of the economy...

"The rule of law, on which freedom itself ultimately depends, is inherently incompatible with socialism. People who are free to do as they wish will not do as the economic planners wish. Differences in values and priories are enough to ensure that. These differences must be ironed out by propaganda or power, if socialism is to be socialism. Indoctrination must be part of the program, not because socialist want to be brainwashers, but because socialism requires brainwashing.

"Idealist socialist create systems in which idealist are almost certain to lose and be superseded by those whose drive for power, and ruthlessness in achieving it, make them the "fittest" to survive under a system where government power is the ultimate prize.... The issue is not what anyone intends but what consequences are in fact likely to follow."


In his article, aptly titled "A Road to Hell Paved with Good Intentions," Sowell points out that "Marxism as an ideal continues to flourish on American college campuses, as perhaps nowhere else in the world." Collectivist visions appeal to academic idealists and others who ignore the lessons of history.
"....all propaganda serves the same goal—that all the instruments of propaganda are coordinated to influence the individuals in the same direction.... The skillful propagandist then has power to mold their minds in any direction he chooses, and even the most intelligent and independent people cannot entirely escape that influence if they are long isolated from all other sources of information. [p.171-172]



President Obama took control of this change process by transferring workers from the private sector (corporations, private enterprise...) to the government service sector. With the controlled media on his side, the masses are not exposed to contrary facts.
"...even the striving for equality by means of a directed economy can result only in an officially enforced inequality—an authoritarian determination of the status of each individual in the new hierarchical order—and that most of the humanitarian elements of our morals, the respect for human life, for the weak, and for the individual generally, will disappear....


"The moral consequences of totalitarian propaganda which we must now consider are, however, of an even more profound kind. They are destructive of all morals because they undermine one of the foundations of all morals: the sense of and the respect for truth.

"...in order to induce people to accept the official values, these must be justified, or shown to be connected with the values already held by the people, which usually will involve assertions about causal connections between means and ends. ...people must be brought to agree not only with the ultimate aims but also with the views about the facts and possibilities on which the particular measures are based.[p.172]


Al Gore's battle against a mythical man-made global warming crisis illustrates this point. Globalist change agents agree that a worldwide crisis is needed to persuade humanity to embrace all the costly restrictions and regulations of government controlled "sustainable development." So they are willing to ignore facts and embrace myths and pseudo-science in order to reach their goal.


"We have seen that agreement on that complete ethical code, that all-comprehensive system of values which is implicit in an economic plan, does not exist in a free society but would have to be created....

"And while the planning authority will constantly have to decide issues on merits about which there exist no definite moral rules [apart from the Bible], it will have to justify its decisions to the people—or, at least, have somehow to make the people believe that they are the right decisions....

"This process of creating a 'myth' to justify his action need not be conscious. ... So [the totalitarian leader] will readily embrace theories which seem to provide a rational justification for the prejudices which he shares with many of his fellows. Thus a pseudoscientific theory becomes part of the official creed which to a greater or lesser degree directs everybody’s action. [p.173]

"The need for such official doctrines... has been clearly foreseen by the various theoreticians of the totalitarian system.... They are all necessarily based on particular views about facts which are then elaborated into scientific theories in order to justify a preconceived opinion.

"The most effective way of making people accept the validity of the values they are to serve is to persuade them that they are really the same as those which they... have always held, but which were not properly understood or recognized.... The people are made to transfer their allegiance from the old gods to the new under the pretense that the new gods really are what their sound instinct had always told them but what before they had only dimly seen. And the most efficient technique to this end is to use the old words but change their meaning. Few traits of totalitarian regimes are ... so characteristic of the whole intellectual climate as the complete perversion of language....

"The worst sufferer in this respect is, of course, the word 'liberty.' It is a word used as freely in totalitarian states as elsewhere.... Dr. Karl Mannheim... warns us that 'a conception of freedom modeled on the preceding age is an obstacle to any real understanding of the problem. But his use of the word freedom is as misleading it is in the mouth of totalitarian politicians. Like their freedom, the 'collective freedom' he offers us is not the freedom of the members of society but the unlimited freedom of the planner to do with society what he pleases....[pps.174-175]

"In this particular case the perversion of the meaning of the word has, of course, been well prepared .... by many of the theoreticians of socialism. But 'freedom' or 'liberty' are by no means the only words whose meaning has been changed into their opposites to make them serve as instruments of totalitarian propaganda. We have already seen how the same happens to 'justice' and “law,' 'right' and 'equality.' The list could be extended until it includes almost all moral and political terms in general use.

"... the confusion becomes worse because this change of meaning of the words describing political ideals is not a single event but a continuous process, a technique employed consciously or unconsciously to direct the people....

"It is not difficult to deprive the great majority of independent thought. But the minority who will retain an inclination to criticize must also be silenced. ... Since many parts of this code will never be explicitly stated... every act of the government, must become sacrosanct and exempt from criticism. If the people are to support the common effort without hesitation, they must be convinced that not only the end aimed at but also the means chosen are the right ones."[p.175]

"Facts and theories must thus become no less the object of an official doctrine than views about values. And the whole apparatus for spreading knowledge—the schools and the press, radio and motion picture—will be used exclusively of to spread those views which, whether true or false, will strengthen the belief in the rightness of the decisions taken by the authority; and all information that might cause doubt or hesitation will be withheld."[p.176]
Stanford University Professor Steven Schneider illustrates it well. He said,
"On the one hand, as scientists, we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but--which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people, we'd like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change.

"To do that, we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we might have... Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest."


This applies even to fields apparently most remote from any political interests and particularly to all the sciences, even the most abstract.
"That in the disciplines dealing directly with human affairs and therefore most immediately affecting political views, such as history, law or economics, the disinterested search for truth cannot be allowed.... These disciplines have, indeed, in all totalitarian countries become the most fertile factories of the official myths which the rulers use to guide the minds and wills of their subjects...." [p.176]

In "Government religion in the United States," Erica Carle wrote:
"The separation of church and state argument for removing all traces of Biblical teaching from public life and public land is a gigantic fraud. Why? Because there is no separation of church and state. Government religion is a fact in the United States. What is wanted by the government religion adherents is not separation of church and state, but exclusive rights for their religion.

"What is the government religion? Auguste Comte (1798-1857), its French founder, called it the Religion of Humanity. The doctrines of the Positive Religion are now taught in the schools as a science which Comte called sociology. Sociology was to be the ruler science over all the other sciences and also the science of managing the world.... In a country that is supposed to be free,

1. its citizens are being subjected to sociological management,
2. its scientists and elected officials to sociological control, and
3. its youth to sociological education.

Hayek went on...
"...we must yet be on our a guard not to dismiss .[these aberrations] as mere accidental by-products which have nothing to do with the essential character of a planned or totalitarian system....They are a direct result of that same desire to see everything directed by a 'unitary conception of the whole.'...

"Once science has to serve, not truth, but the interests of a class, a community or a state.... As the Nazi minister of justice has explained, the question which every new scientific theory must ask itself is: 'Do I serve National Socialism for the greatest benefit of all?'

"The word 'truth' itself ceases to have its old meaning. ...it becomes something to be laid down by authority, something which has to be believed in the interest of the unity of the organized effort and which may have to be altered as the exigencies of this organized effort require it.

"The general intellectual climate which this produces, the spirit of complete cynicism as regards truth which it engenders, the loss of the sense of even the meaning of truth, the disappearance of the spirit of independent inquiry.... Perhaps the most alarming fact is that contempt for intellectual liberty is not a thing which arises only once the totalitarian system is established but one which can be found everywhere among intellectuals who have embraced a collectivist faith and who are acclaimed as intellectual leaders even in countries still under a liberal regime.

"Not only is even the worst oppression condoned if it is committed in the name of socialism, and the creation of a totalitarian system openly advocated by people who pretend to speak for the scientists of liberal countries; intolerance, too, is openly extolled...." [p.178]

"This view is, of course, practically indistinguishable from the views which led the Nazis to the persecution of men of science, the burning of scientific books, and the systematic eradication of the intelligentsia of the subjected people.

"The desire to force upon the people a creed which is regarded as salutary for them is, of course, not a thing that is new or peculiar to our time. New, however, is the argument by which many of our intellectuals try to justify such attempts." [p.179]

The tragedy of collectivist thought is that, while it starts out to make reason supreme, it ends by destroying reason...."[p.180]
And as a reminder, this was writen in 1944!

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Ladies and Gentleman

Please read this post very carefully. It really has nothing to do with trading Forex.

It has to do with your lives and mine. There has been a very important reason that I have spend so much time and effort and have posted so much research material that I am sure most of you that come to this thread started on December 3, 2016 have not had the time or maybe the interest to read what I have shared with you.


There is nothing wrong with that as I was myself learning what was really going on in the world since I live in it. This article is about a MAJOR LIFE CHANGE FOR EVERYONE OF US WITH NO EXCEPTIONS.

I will leave you to think about what I have posted here this morning.

http://deviantinvestor.com/8632/russian-roulette-gold/

Russian Roulette, Central Banks, and Gold
Posted on March 24, 2017 by Gary Christenson


Grab your ultra-reliable 357 magnum revolver and load the cylinder with six, not one, rounds of ammunition. Point the gun at your head if you are a member of the struggling middle-class. Imagine pulling the trigger and hoping …

Do you feel lucky?


The Six Loads of Ammunition for your 357 revolver are:
#1: [highlight=transparent !important]Central banks[/highlight] and commercial banks exert a huge influence over all aspects of our financial lives. Paper [highlight=transparent !important]currencies[/highlight] issued by central banks, digital currency units, credit [highlight=transparent !important]card debt[/highlight], pension funds, retirement accounts, [highlight=transparent !important]checking accounts[/highlight], Quantitative Easing, bond monetization, congress, regulators, Presidents, and [highlight=transparent !important]the list[/highlight] goes on. Their game, their rules, your losses, and more of the same.

#2: Derivatives are used to “manage” markets, exercise control via futures markets over prices for physical and paper assets, increase leverage and enhance profits for the banks. Each derivative includes a commission – it is not a “zero-sum” game. Banks and CEO [highlight=transparent !important]bonuses[/highlight] win.

#3: Debt, debt, and much more debt. Deficit spending increases debt, and governments run deficits. Interest is paid by individuals, corporations, and governments. Global debt of $200 trillion will require inflation, hyper-inflation or default. How long can government expenditures increase much more rapidly than revenues? Answer: As long as our current “Ponzi” finance can continue. How long can a Ponzi scheme last? Answer: Not forever. A default or hyper-inflation will occur, sooner rather than later. Fiat currencies will devalue.

#4: Near zero interest [highlight=transparent !important]rates[/highlight], negative interest rates, and financial repression. If central banks lower the interest paid on bonds and investments, pension plans and savers are penalized. Debtors, including governments, banks, and large corporations benefit. Your government plan and corporate pension plan are increasingly insolvent. Interest earnings are nearly zero. “High yield” checking accounts pay 0.01% interest. Your savings are depleted, and you may outlive your retirement assets. Welcome to the world of NIRP, ZIRP and financial repression that transfers assets and revenue from you to the banks, courtesy of [highlight=transparent !important]central bank[/highlight]policies.

#5: High Frequency Trading or HFT is legalized skimming. Ultra-fast computers, PhD mathematics and software have replaced human traders. The result is consistent and profitable trading for the big financial institutions. Per zerohedge JP Morgan’s in-house trading group has been unprofitable on only two days in the past four years. Average trading revenues were $80 million per day for 2016. Someone contributed heavily to the JP Morgan casino winnings.

#6: Too Big To Fail, Too Big To Jail. If central banks and the five largest commercial banks contribute to congressional elections, and Presidents fill their key positions with executives from the financial industries, and regulators work for them, what is the likely result? If a few large commercial banks are too big to fail, the government and taxpayers must … and you know the drill. More debt, more influence, more derivatives, and a successful [highlight=transparent !important]business model[/highlight] that benefits the wealthy far more than the middle class.

Review:
Your revolver is loaded with six rounds of ammunition, any of which can blast a hole in your [highlight=transparent !important]net[/highlight] worth and financial security. The central bank loads are:

1. Their rules, their game.
2. Derivatives.
3. Debt, lots of unpayable debt.
4. Near zero interest paid on your savings as currencies are devalued.
5. HFT skims from many markets for banker profits.
6. Too big to fail. Bail-outs, bail-ins, taxpayer assistance, and [highlight=transparent !important]bonus[/highlight] checks. (Google “bail-ins.”)

One, two, three … pull the trigger!
ALTERNATE CHOICES:

Instead of playing a guaranteed to fail game of Russian roulette with your financial security, consider a return to the basics:

1. Use real money – gold and silver – for your savings.
2. Gold has no counter-party risk. Silver has no counter-party risk. Most or all “paper” and debt based assets depend upon counter-parties.
3. Minimize debt and reduce your “debt footprint.”
4. Reconsider your investments in bonds, stocks, ever-increasing debt, devaluing currency units, minimal interest paid on savings, counter-party risk and trust in your friendly central [highlight=transparent !important]bankers[/highlight].

CONCLUSIONS:

 

1. Be cautious when playing Central Banker Russian Roulette with your savings and retirement funds. The stock market crash of 1987, the LTCM crash of 1998, the NASDAQ crash of 2000, and the global financial crisis of 2008 warned us about counter-party risk, excess debt and trusting Wall Street.

1. Trust gold and silver more, and use fewer paper investments.

Read: “Banks” from Peak Prosperity
Gary Christenson
The Deviant Investor

This entry was posted in Central Banking and tagged central banks, gold, russian roulette. Bookmark the permalink.


Comments From Benjaminis: The posts that I have done this morning gives you the information that you need to protect yourselves. Whether you use it or not is your choice. My purpose is to share it.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...ng-gone-wrong/

Nation Building Gone Wrong

Blog/Economics
Posted Mar 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeco...micCartoon.jpg
Economic events have the most interesting way of exposing economic theories and orthodoxies and how seriously flawed they truly are these days. The fixed-exchange rate system and the Gold Standard imposed by Bretton Woods collapsed simply because they never fixed the supply of dollars, yet gold and other currencies were fixed to dollars. Only an idiot would assume you could fix currencies and gold to the dollar and expect that to be maintained while creating dollars with no limit.
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....m-761x1024.jpgJohn F. Kennedy in his debate with Richard Nixon during 1960, made it perfectly clear that Bretton Woods was in trouble indirectly and created the first gold panic postwar. He said the USA could stop the decline in the dollar at any moment – stop expanding military bases worldwide. For every dollar spent on creating an overseas bases and then hiring locals for staff and paying US soldiers to live there was the perfect way to export dollars with nothing in return. In trade, you received something back. Through trying to control the world, the military just squandered American wealth with nothing to show for it but their power games of national building that have never worked even once. Government’s have been engaged in national building for centuries. The Romans, Charlemagne, British, Napoleon, Hitler, Genghis Khan, Japan and others have sought to engage in national building by invasion. None of their empires have survived intact to this very day.

The comedy movie, the Mouse that Roared, was a take how the USA did not seek to occupy foreign governments, they sought to turn them into vassal states. In this manner, this movie rightly showed how a bankrupt small state could become economically sufficient by declaring war on the United States and losing.
Effectively, the USA did not lose to trade, it really lost due to the lost cause of nation building. The USA version was not to occupy other countries, for that would bring back the idea of imperialism. Instead, they poured dollars outward to subjugate other countries, turning them into vassal states. This was not “imperialism” in the classic sense – economic stupidity that cost far too much and undermined the economy in a similar manner to imperialism.

Categories: Economics
Tags: Bretton Woods, fixed-exchange rate system, national building
« What’s Collapsing? Socialism or Capitalism?

Now I will turn to Forex Currency Trading and just focus on helping you make some money.

I will start by posting the excellent chart from the EUR/USD thread that I just read.

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...5&d=1490777823

You are on your own with regard to EUR/USD as I would not trade it today since this excellent chart does not tell you anything more than it does. Does it tell you if EUR/USD will go up or go down ? NO .... So why would I want to trade it for the moment ?

Now on to what you can trade at your own risk since I can only tell you what I am trading.

SO .... For today only I need to determine if WE have RISK ON or RISK OFF ?

That still remains to be seen and that will be better known at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time when the North America Equity Markets Open.

In the meantime I am watching the Talking Heads and Talking Guests on CNBC.

I just heard now that there will be some news on Brexit at 7:30 AM Eastern Standard Time or in the next hour if you are not good at calculating time zones.

This morning I SHORTED one position of 100 units of SPX500 at 2354.77 and it was done at 5:57 AM Eastern Standard Time and now I have a DRAW UP of $75 US Dollars.

I will edit and update this post in case you care to follow along live. I have set my LIMIT OUT in order to make $500 Plus US Dollars to bring my FXCM UK $50,000 US Funds Account that I opened on February 21, 2017 to over $60,000 US Dollars , a Return On Investment of over 20%.


Benjaminis

The time now is 6:49 AM Eastern Standard Time...

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/6dd3bc...9602732830.jpg
Today's Calendar Events to Watch
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/6dd3bc...10377ba3bd.png
Event: Article 50 letter provided to Europe
GMT: 12.30
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/6dd3bc...b5a683a839.png
Event: Fed's Evans (Soft Dove, Voter) speaks at capital market conference
GMT: 14.20
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/6dd3bc...b5a683a839.png
Event: US DoE Crude oil inventories (Mar 24) (W/W)
GMT: 15.30

Ahead of Brexit Cable Dives but Then Recovers


March 29th, 2017

Market Drivers March 29, 2017
Cable plunges in Asia but rebounds
UK Mortgage Approvals dip
Nikkei 0.08% Dax 0.48%
Oil $48/bbl
Gold $1252/oz.

Europe and Asia:
GBP UK Mortage Approvals 68.3K vs. 69.6K
GBP Consumer Credit 1.44B vs. 1.3B

North America:
GBP PM May announceds Brexit 7:30
USD Pending Homes 10:00

Cable tumbled hard in Asian session trade today dropping more than 70 points in a matter of minutes after Theresa May signed the letter formalizing UK intention to invoke Article 50 and exit the European Union.

The actual notification will take place today at approximately 1130 GMT but traders reacted ahead of the event, although the action was never really in doubt. After breaching the 1.2400 figure cable spent the rest of the session consolidating and then rebounding back to the 1.2450 level.

The short squeeze in early London lost most of its momentum after leaks the EU President Donald Tusk’s speech suggested that the common market would take a relatively tough line in negotiations. Mr. Tusk is expected to state that no free trade deal will be given the UK in the first two years of negotiations and that even as of now, while UK remains within the union, the terms of trade will no longer be as favorable. Overall, the EU has allocated 3 years to get the deal done as both parties negotiate the Brexit terms of separation.

Much of the GBPUSD trade will depend on the state of negotiations with the EU once Article 50 is triggered. There are two camps of thought with respect to the UK exit resolution. Cable bears are convinced that the EU will want to “punish” the Brits and make an example out of them so that no other member of the union decided to secede. The “hard Brexit” scenario calls for very harsh trade terms for UK, as well as heavy penalty fine for the right to exit.

Most analysts, however, believe that it would serve neither party well to have a difficult divorce. UK, after all, is not only the second largest economy within the bloc, representing massive consumer power to the rest of the continent, but is also the global hub of international finance serving as a very valuable intermediary between Asia and, Middle East, and North America. It is perhaps this aspect of Brexit that is most overlooked in market analysis. While most traders are focused on the state of trade flows – the key to UK’s economic survival will be the state of capital flows. For all intents and purposes, UK is a finance economy and finance is its greatest product. That’s why the survival of UK finance sector will be the key to the survival of UK economy as a whole.

The central conflict between the UK and the EU is that Great Britain wants to have full access to the European market while restricting the movement of EU citizens within its own borders. That simply will not fly with the Europeans whose system is based on the fundamental premise of the free flow of goods, services, and individuals. If UK stubbornly clings to its nativist stance without some compromise, the selling pressure on cable will likely accelerate.

For now, the market remains relatively sanguine about the prospect of Brexit. Currency markets are assuming that some sort of workable compromise will be made as Brits agree to a breakup fee and some limited freedom of movement for EU citizens in return for only modest barriers to the EU market. Under such scenario, cable could find a much more sustainable bid and could slowly trade towards the 1.3500 level. If, however, the parties dig in on the freedom of movement issue the long protracted negotiation with all of the concomitant recriminations is likely to cast a pall over the UK economy. Business investment will freeze and further pressure on the pound will create stronger inflation and dampen consumer demand.

For today, the price action will likely remain contained in the 1.2350 -1.2550 corridor depending on market’s reading of initial negotiating stances. This, however, is just the beginning of the process that will no doubt see many ups and downs along the way.

The time is now 7:10 AM Eastern Standard Time in Montreal.

Here is a 5 Minute Chart on US 30

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

If we have RISK OFF then the US 30 and the SPX500 will go down. It is that SIMPLE.

SO now I want to do another Forex Trade with CORRELATION.... What is CORRELATION ?

Look at the 5 Minute Chart of USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

SO if we have RISK OFF then you will SEE the CORRELATION as the USD/JPY heads towards 110.00.

SO This is called my Money Flow Trading and it is almost a sure thing although other factors can change the CORRELATION somewhat. As an example a NEW DECISION by the Bank of Japan.

PLEASE POST YOUR QUESTIONS SO I CAN BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND. Thank You...

The Time is now 7:15 AM Eastern Standard Time.....

The time is now 7:36 AM Eastern Standard Time and I share this report from Baby Pips. I will have comments at the end of the analysis.

 

1. Daily economic digest from Forex.ee
   Stay informed of the key economic events
   
   Wednesday, March 29th
   
   The GBP/USD pair fell for more than two cents from yesterday’s highs and now is consolidating its sharp decline in the region of 1.2400 level, as traders remain unkind to the pound ahead of formal beginning of separation process between UK and Eurozone. Today all market’s attention will be focused on developments, surrounding the Article 50 trigger, as the UK PM T.May has already signed official notice that Britain is leaving EU and has sent it to European Council President D.Tusk, who will hold a press conference in European afternoon, announcing that negotiations on Brexit process will officially start. Beside Brexit process start, today the US economy will release data from housing market, while traders’ reaction on it will be limited in wake of more crucial events of this Wednesday.
   
   The EUR/USD pair is trading near its lower bound of this week, as bears continue to keep control over the major. Currently the pair is trading in south direction, breaking below the level of 1.0800, in wake of the broadly stronger greenback, underpinned by positive US macro data on Tuesday, hawkish Fedspeaks and solid gains in the pair with the pound. Today all eyes will be set up on developments surrounding Article 50 during the European session, accompanied with UK PM T.May’s speech, while traders will also be able to catch some pips after release of the US Pending Home Sales report, that is scheduled on NA trading session.
   
   The AUD/USD pair staged a solid comeback from its two-week lows, marked yesterday at 0.7587 spot, however, further pair’s growth remains unlikely in wake of lack of bullish momentum. Seems that Aussie’s bulls are still having some steam in early Europe despite ongoing weakness in copper and renewed buying interest around the greenback, underpinned by yesterday’s upbeat US economic data. Moreover, strong nervousness ahead Article of 50 trigger is also driving flows away from higher-yielding assets, such as Aussie. Looking ahead, only US Pending Home Sales are scheduled in data calendar for this Wednesday, so the pair will continue to follow global markets sentiments to determine its further direction.
   
   The dollar/yen pair remains consolidative in early Europe after strong bullish rally, seen this Tuesday. Yesterday the pair came out of its region of multi week lows in response to strong gains of the US dollar vs. its British competitor, as traders preferred to close their GBP longs ahead of Article 50 trigger. Today developments around Brexit process are expected to drive global markets sentiments, supporting safe-haven assets, such as the yen. Additionally, data from the US housing market will also be able to bring some impact to the pair later in NA session.
   
   The main events of the day:
   UK Prime Minister T.May’s speech – 14.30 (GMT +2)
   US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +2)
   US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +2)
   
   Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
   EURUSD S. 1.0754 R. 1.0902
   USDJPY S. 109.82 R. 111.86
   GBPUSD S. 1.2340 R. 1.2652
   USDCHF S. 0.9793 R. 1.0001
   AUDUSD S. 0.7558 R. 0.7692
   NZDUSD S. 0.6981 R. 0.7065
   USDCAD S. 1.3322 R. 1.3444

Comments from Benjaminis: We have mild RISK OFF at the moment so to see the PICTURE before 9:30 AM , I look at the 10 Year US Bonds.

Here is the 5 Minute Chart on the 10 Year US Bonds

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

SO ..... You can see that the 10 Year US Bonds have MONEY FLOWING THERE so that for the moment confirms RISK OFF...

The Time is now 7:45 AM Eastern Standard Time....

Anyone here ? Any Questions ? Is Everyone Happy ?

The time is now 9:15 AM Eastern Standard Time in Montreal , Quebec . Canada and I share with Forex Retail Traders here the following chart that I just copied from the EUR/USD Thread...

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...3&d=1490789861

At the moment it is trading at 107.53 and is it a BUY or a SELL ? I do not know and I have no reason to trade it.

So back to my Trade Plans of SHORT 3 positions of US 30 in blocks of 100 units and SHORT 3 positions of SPX500 in blocks of 100 units and the Third Trade Plan is to SHORT 3 positions of USD/JPY in blocks of 100 units.

That is only done if we have RISK OFF...

Is that Clear ? Is that Simple ? The answer is YES.

Now for my present positions . I have one position of US 30 open now with a DRAW DOWN of $115 US Dollars holding 100 units and one position of SPX500 with a DRAW DOWN of $75 US Dollars. My Total DRAW DOWN is $190 US Dollars and the MARGIN that I used is $1150 US Dollars and $1350 US Dollars for my one position of SPX500.

The RISK MANAGEMENT limits my LOSS to 4% on these two open positions. Each Trade Plan has a MAXIMUM RISK of 6% of my Trading Funds initially using the $50,000 US Dollars as the original amount.

PLEASE POST YOUR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS HERE... Thank You


Benjaminis

The Time is now 9:24 AM Eastern Standard Time...

Hello happy people.
Before I go out to get my daily dose of sunlight today, I thought I might just get rid of "my 2 cents" on some markets in here

I did a fresh intense top-down TA on USD, Gold, Silver, and EUR/USD, and here is my longterm view on these:

USD
Technicly in the long run everything points towards a weaker USD. It is scratching it's SHS neckline today but the pullback already looks weak and I doubt it can break through the neckline zone and pull up again. This thing is going down. Trump needs it, US people need it, US economy needs it, Eurozone needs it. It might take a while for "the establishment" to reposition themselfes accordingly (adjusting to Trump, basicly) but once this is done and big money is repositioned, the Drop on the USD will come.

Silver & Gold
If you are looking for longer term options, based on my TA it would be a good idea to position yourself LONG in Gold and Silver, even if the Buy seems "late" (if you are not already in). but I think they will both break their current resistance zones and continue their flight up north. If you are not in these markets yet but looking to get into it, currently it would be a good point to do so.

EUR/USD
On the EUR/USD, the overall technical tendency remains LONG, we are slowly "crawling out" of the bear market, but the political situation with the upcoming french elections and later on this year the german elections remain the big "if" in this market.
From the technical aspect there is not much to slow it down and it shows strong signs for an overall "turnaround" and the will to turn into a bull market again.

some personal thoughts
I put hope into france.
Based on the result of the upcoming election I see a strong bullish move. I don't think Le Pen can win.
This is a little bit of hope and good faith in the people of france here, please don't let these populistic nationalists take over, we had this and it never ends good. Please learn from history france. We all need a change, but these kind of people are not the change we need and I promise you nothing will get better if you elect these nationalists. I am not a politician but these people are racists and they stand against humanity and when did this ever pay out?
I might add, I am biased here. I am german and I live 15km from the french border, so....

back to TA
In it's current phase the market tends to do mild short corrections which could deliver good entry points on a daily basis to position yourself in LONG direction.
Please be aware that especialy in the EUR/USD the elections can destroy everything, but from a technical point of view there is nothing that speaks against a break of the current resistance zone and a stronger Euro vs the USD.

be aware
at the present moment, risk remains OFF in EUR/USD (institutional point of view)



@forum people
I spare you the charts.. who cares for proper TA charts in forums
If you don't like these kind of postings (content) in here please tell me and I remove it.
Please be aware that these are thoughts and opinions, in no way I dare to "be right".
If you like what I do, please leave me a smile

my 2 cents,
stay green, Teek

Good day Benjamin, Teek and everyone else.

Thank you for the posts Benjamin, as always I love the articles from Brett, this post has a lot of valuable information to read, there is something for everyone's taste.
Teek I like your analysis and point of view, thank you for posting them.

Good Day KeepCalmfx

I sent you emails so if you have not seen them please let me know.

It is almost 9:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Montreal.


Benjaminis

Here are the daily charts