Dang this thread died!
Anyone else watching NZDUSD?
Anyone else watching NZDUSD?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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1
now maintaining the sanctity of this thread, here's something for VSA traders, I don't use VSA anymore, since there are no good Wyckoff thread on this forum so......{image}
- #28,484
- Mar 24, 2017 12:34am Mar 24, 2017 12:34am
kids, there so much to learn from this chart, have fun{image}
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
- #28,486
- Mar 24, 2017 9:24am Mar 24, 2017 9:24am
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Resident Psychiatrist!!! | 2,600 Posts
Dang this thread died! Anyone else watching NZDUSD? {image}
- #28,490
- Mar 25, 2017 3:49am Mar 25, 2017 3:49am
{quote} Me personally, I like to just take full profit at zones that give me anywhere from a 3R to 5R and exit the full position and move on. For a little while I tried taking partial profits each time price hit a new zone but found it really skewed my RR rates. To me it seems like I drastically reduce my reward rate each time I take a partial, but that is just how I see it. Attached is a screen shot of a spread sheet I open up every day that shows % to break even. On average my wins are 3.5R which requires a 22% win rate to break even on my account...
I like take full profit just at 1 lvl too. Will try to just set TP into 1:4 and then move it to closest lvl
Hi all,
I am happy to have come across this thread. I did start my studies on VSA and am now trying to put the things I learned into practice. It is very impressive to have such a big thread. Am looking forward to be a frequent participant. Since this thread is so big, it will take too much time to catch up on all the previous postings.
If I may, I'd like to add some charts and ask about what confuses me.
EUR vs AUD Weekly.
The most recent Pinbar (Hammer) potruding the yellow zone is on very low volume, which indicates a successful test. It seems supply has been removed and we were good to go from that point on. Looking at the last bearish candle that closes below 1,40 has in very low volume, which still is bullish. The next candle is a strong candle closing on the highs again on low volume. Would this suggest there is no supply at these levels? Price is approaching an area where there has been seeling previously (yellow zone). I'd assume the last week close would show No Demand. Would that be a mark up to lock in buyers?
Looking at the daily I am doubting that an upward move can sustain this long on low volume. The last candle formed an Up-Thrust on low volume. Hope I am reading the candle right. Last week I saw the lack of supply at the grey rectangle but missed my entry. Now the asset was not able to break above the recent high and volume is still low.
Another asset that confuses me is NZD vs USD. Below is the daily chart.
For any case the text inside the yellow box is not readable, here is my comment I made in it.
High volume but narrow spread. If it was all selling, then we would have a bigger bearish candle. So there must have been buying into selling. The low volume on the Pinbar could be a successful test.
But looking at the weekly we see exactly the opposite. High volume on a narrow spread with an upper wick. There must have been selling in the backround.
Below is the weekly chart.
Last week did close near the bottom on high volume. This suggest that there was selling on rising prices. Both timeframes kinda contradict themselves. While the daily suggest a successful test which is a bullish signal, the weekly suggests supply supply at these levels, which is a bearish signal. I tend to go with the weekly.
I would greatly appreciate if someone was able to shed some light.
Happy trading,
Wmn
I am happy to have come across this thread. I did start my studies on VSA and am now trying to put the things I learned into practice. It is very impressive to have such a big thread. Am looking forward to be a frequent participant. Since this thread is so big, it will take too much time to catch up on all the previous postings.
If I may, I'd like to add some charts and ask about what confuses me.
EUR vs AUD Weekly.
The most recent Pinbar (Hammer) potruding the yellow zone is on very low volume, which indicates a successful test. It seems supply has been removed and we were good to go from that point on. Looking at the last bearish candle that closes below 1,40 has in very low volume, which still is bullish. The next candle is a strong candle closing on the highs again on low volume. Would this suggest there is no supply at these levels? Price is approaching an area where there has been seeling previously (yellow zone). I'd assume the last week close would show No Demand. Would that be a mark up to lock in buyers?
Looking at the daily I am doubting that an upward move can sustain this long on low volume. The last candle formed an Up-Thrust on low volume. Hope I am reading the candle right. Last week I saw the lack of supply at the grey rectangle but missed my entry. Now the asset was not able to break above the recent high and volume is still low.
Another asset that confuses me is NZD vs USD. Below is the daily chart.
For any case the text inside the yellow box is not readable, here is my comment I made in it.
High volume but narrow spread. If it was all selling, then we would have a bigger bearish candle. So there must have been buying into selling. The low volume on the Pinbar could be a successful test.
But looking at the weekly we see exactly the opposite. High volume on a narrow spread with an upper wick. There must have been selling in the backround.
Below is the weekly chart.
Last week did close near the bottom on high volume. This suggest that there was selling on rising prices. Both timeframes kinda contradict themselves. While the daily suggest a successful test which is a bullish signal, the weekly suggests supply supply at these levels, which is a bearish signal. I tend to go with the weekly.
I would greatly appreciate if someone was able to shed some light.
Happy trading,
Wmn
Never stop to learn
- #28,492
- Mar 26, 2017 10:03pm Mar 26, 2017 10:03pm
Hi all, I am happy to have come across this thread. I did start my studies on VSA and am now trying to put the things I learned into practice. It is very impressive to have such a big thread. Am looking forward to be a frequent participant. Since this thread is so big, it will take too much time to catch up on all the previous postings. If I may, I'd like to add some charts and ask about what confuses me. EUR vs AUD Weekly
Side note.. Keep in mind that forex volume IMO has never been great on D1/W1/MN charts, but your volume feed doesn't feel right, mainly because of your D1 NZDUSD chart. Try a demo account for another broker just as reference, FXCM/ICMarkets are good. The charts I'm using are from a FXCM demo account.
EURAUD W1
EURAUD D1
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- #28,493
- Mar 26, 2017 10:45pm Mar 26, 2017 10:45pm
Here is NZDUSD, it's a lot more in depth as I've been studying this pair for a week.
W1.. Over all I think NZD is in trouble because of the cup and handle pattern on weekly.
D1 The reason why I don't like your volume feed is the high volume doesn't make sense. If you have a high volume narrow spread bar you would expect to see it at a high or low with price reacting to it immediately. The way I'm looking at the bar, is the market saw it as a low volume no supply and the next bar tested the lows of the no supply checking for sellers.
H4 We know that we are about to see a major move with the climatic bar from March 15th and all last week it seems like NZDUSD was being sold which lines up with the weakness on weekly. But we are seeing strength on daily, the best thing to do is to sit and wait. If Friday's D1 test fails today then its game on to short it, if today confirms the strength and we start to see further signs of weakness fail then Its time to start going long.
W1.. Over all I think NZD is in trouble because of the cup and handle pattern on weekly.
D1 The reason why I don't like your volume feed is the high volume doesn't make sense. If you have a high volume narrow spread bar you would expect to see it at a high or low with price reacting to it immediately. The way I'm looking at the bar, is the market saw it as a low volume no supply and the next bar tested the lows of the no supply checking for sellers.
H4 We know that we are about to see a major move with the climatic bar from March 15th and all last week it seems like NZDUSD was being sold which lines up with the weakness on weekly. But we are seeing strength on daily, the best thing to do is to sit and wait. If Friday's D1 test fails today then its game on to short it, if today confirms the strength and we start to see further signs of weakness fail then Its time to start going long.
Trust the Market
{quote} Going to break this response up into two posts. First post will be on EURAUD. Side note.. Keep in mind that forex volume IMO has never been great on D1/W1/MN charts, but your volume feed doesn't feel right, mainly because of your D1 NZDUSD chart. Try a demo account for another broker just as reference, FXCM/ICMarkets are good. The charts I'm using are from a FXCM demo account.
thank you for the fast and detailed answer. Appreciate you taking the time to point me the direction.
You did observe a discrepancy regarding my volume compared to yours and suggested FXCM or ICMarkets as a reference. I am trading with FXCM and the charts are from my life platform. I am very surprised that the tick volume seems fraudulent. I need to compare that with the demo plattform and get back to FXCM regarding this discrepancy. Thank you for highlighting this matter.
I am happy that my idea is not off. Regarding EUR vs AUD I am not inclined to go long at all. And without any signs of weakness I am not looking to short. I was just confused what to do about the discrepancy between the weekly and daily. Looking at the smaller timeframe such as H4 it is very appealing to look for shorts due to the low volume up move. So if the daily shows signs of weakness, it might get interesting. I am not chasing the market. Am trying to put into practice what I learned and understood so far.
Looking at H4 in isolation it seems like we are seeing signs of weakness.
The last H4 candle did close at the top on low volume. Depending on the next 30+ minutes we might get an upthrust with increased volume compared to the preceding volume. Price is not at a previous high volume area. Comparing the volume to the left (same level) volume is drastically low. would the low volume upthrust already be a good sign of weakness? Reading Tom Williams books, he takes many times such signals. If I were to take the trade, I'd place the stop above the wick plus a little buffer. This thought of chain is only based on what I see on what I see on the chart above.
Never stop to learn
Here is NZDUSD, it's a lot more in depth as I've been studying this pair for a week. W1...
I am surprised i don't see the climatic volume on my chart (March 15th)
I am not really looking to trade with mt4. I never really got used to mt4. But now I am thinking of considering it. It's a pity that there is such a discrepancy.
Am glad that you see the contradicting signal as well. I do not really want to go long and don't really want to sell as of now.
H4 timeframe shows rather weakness looking at the above chart. The last up candle shows No Demand just blow resistance. But I like to be closer to resistance, if I were to take a short position. Talking of short / weakness, the book refers to a top reversal formation consisting of two candles. The last two candles would present a two bar reversal if I understood correct, with the up candle on low volume and the down candle on higher volume and the close below the low of the first candle. Would that be the correct setup for the two bar reversal?
Happy trading,
Wmn
Never stop to learn
Hmm, I wonder what my broker is doing here.
My above daily chart shows high volume on the 23.03.17.
Today I am back at the same asset (NZD vs USD) and the volume is average.
I am not trying to start a discussion about data feed and volume discrepancies with other brokers. Until now I didn't really care about the issues with Tick volume.
The broker tick volume should be sufficient enough. But now the broker itself is changing the tick volume. Is that normal? Am I missing something here?
I'll get in touch with my broker about this matter.
Happy trading,
Wmn
My above daily chart shows high volume on the 23.03.17.
Today I am back at the same asset (NZD vs USD) and the volume is average.
I am not trying to start a discussion about data feed and volume discrepancies with other brokers. Until now I didn't really care about the issues with Tick volume.
The broker tick volume should be sufficient enough. But now the broker itself is changing the tick volume. Is that normal? Am I missing something here?
I'll get in touch with my broker about this matter.
Happy trading,
Wmn
Never stop to learn
- #28,498
- Mar 27, 2017 3:30pm Mar 27, 2017 3:30pm
Btw, we with pastsad2010 got here a small newbie skype team for not disturb thread with dumb questions and ask dumb questions each other 
We are trying to focusing at lvls at UHV bars, so if anyone want to study VSA with us - wellcome
We are trying to focusing at lvls at UHV bars, so if anyone want to study VSA with us - wellcome
