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  • #741
  • Mar 17, 2017 7:42pm Mar 17, 2017 7:42pm
Quoting srt
Dec. Corn: Sold 380P @ 26.75 Bought 340P @ 9.5 Credit of 17.25 ($862) Break Even @ 363 {image}
May get me some corn ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #742
  • Mar 17, 2017 7:48pm Mar 17, 2017 7:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}index short verts either way will prolly be good for a while, I sense another spell of flatness.....if anything I expect US stocks to start to sputter in the uptrend, maybe slide a little.....sideways is the new down...
It's entirely possible we'll have to endure this sideways to slow up grind for a bit yet ... . VIX still in the pooper, with the first front month future >16 in (yikes) August:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VIX TERM STRUCTURE.jpg Size: 168 KB


Of course, that can turn on a dime, but I've been waiting for it to "turn on a dime" for a bit now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #743
  • Mar 17, 2017 7:52pm Mar 17, 2017 7:52pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Nice 4% pop in extended hours on another purchase by a large hedge fund :-) Just don't like stocks that are down 95% over the past year. Usually just a matter of time before the final hammer drops. Just pray not until your option expires :-) They just rolled over some debt so the final ax will be extended if it happens. Only 30 billion in debt. No big deal. ***Selling a naked put allows you to roll to a higher put also just like rolling the call. Just less commissions when you're not dealing with the stock. {image}
Aaaaand ... pretty much gave all that back today ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #744
  • Mar 19, 2017 3:02pm Mar 19, 2017 3:02pm
Next week in a nutshell: FDX, NKE earnings; maybes a little GDX or XOP diagonal action: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FD...-NKE-EARNINGS/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #745
  • Mar 20, 2017 5:33pm Mar 20, 2017 5:33pm
Covering: VIX May 16/19 short call vert for a .42 debit here. Opened for .77 ($77)/contract worth of credit; closing here results in a gross profit of $35/contract. A little short of 50% of max (45%).

Covering: SPY April 7th 229.5/232.5/241.5/244.5 iron condor for a .43 db. I legged into the put side as a delta hedge to pick up some positive delta and then into the call side when price swung back the other way for a total of .75 ($75)/contract in credits. Pulling it off here for a gross profit of $32/contract.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #746
  • Mar 21, 2017 9:43am Mar 21, 2017 9:43am
Opening: NKE March 31st 54.5/58.5/59/64 iron condor for a 2.23 credit. (Earnings; Volatility Contraction Play). The body of this is so narrow, it's nearly an iron fly.

Opening: FDX March 31st 177.5/182.5/202.5/207.5 iron condor for a 1.40 credit. (Earnings; Volatility Contraction Play). A Plain Jane 20-delta iron condor.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #747
  • Mar 21, 2017 11:12am Mar 21, 2017 11:12am
Opening: SPY April 21st 240/243 short call vert for a .41 credit. Never a great time to short call vert on market weakness, but I'm protecting an "unmatched" short put vert in the same expiry, as well as picking up a touch of negative delta for my SPY core position. I'm doing this buying power effect "free" since I'm selling an oppositional spread against a spread I already have on in the same expiry with the exact same spread width (3-wide) (an April 21st 230/233 short put vertical).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #748
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:26pm Mar 21, 2017 12:26pm
Quick! Look! It's like a rainbow. It won't be here forever ... . VIX backwardation:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VIX Backward.jpg Size: 235 KB


(It's March /VX futures contract "0" day, so this doesn't mean much. Plus, it ain't "Yuuuuuuge.")
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #749
  • Mar 21, 2017 11:42pm Mar 21, 2017 11:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Quick! Look! It's like a rainbow. It won't be here forever ... . VIX backwardation: {image} (It's March /VX futures contract "0" day, so this doesn't mean much. Plus, it ain't "Yuuuuuuge.")
And, just like that -- on rollover -- it's gone ... :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BUH-BYE.jpg Size: 229 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #750
  • Mar 22, 2017 8:58am Mar 22, 2017 8:58am
Covering: FDX March 31st 177.5/182.5/202.5/207.5 for a .70 ($70)/contract debit (50% max). In for 1.40, out for .70; $70 gross profit for contract.

Covering: NKE March 31st 59/63 short call vert for near worthless (.03). Watching what's left of the iron fly (a 54.5/58.5 short put vert) to see if we get some kind of meaningful retrace before rolling ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #751
  • Mar 22, 2017 10:19am Mar 22, 2017 10:19am
Rolling: NKE March 31st 54.5 long put to the 53 strike for a .41 credit. This improves my break even for the side, but also increases the width of the spread and therefore, the buying power effect ... . Scratch point at 2.61.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #752
  • Mar 22, 2017 11:47am Mar 22, 2017 11:47am
Opening: XOP April 21st 33.5/June 16th 30 put diagonal for a .00 db. Basically, a calendarized credit spread ... . I'll work the front month short put as I would a full on naked ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #753
  • Mar 23, 2017 5:30pm Mar 23, 2017 5:30pm
Covering: NKE earnings play. Got assigned early; closed out the short call vert, then the leftover long put, and then sold out of the stock. When all was said and done, a 1.34 loser. I could have worked it as a covered call, but frankly didn't want more stock ... . Sometimes, take the loss, move on ... .

Opening: VIX July 16/19 short call vert for a .75 ($75)/contract credit. Another "Term Structure" trade stuck out in summer when everything's deadly quiet and, historically VIX has been low (kinda, like, now ... ).

Rolling: VRX April 17th 10 short call to May 19th 10 short call for a .43/contract credit. Part of a covered call, I'm not feeling as "itchy" about this trade as when I put it on ... . Cost basis is now 8.98/share.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #754
  • Mar 25, 2017 7:50am Mar 25, 2017 7:50am
Quoting srt
Dec. Corn: Sold 380P @ 26.75 Bought 340P @ 9.5 Credit of 17.25 ($862) Break Even @ 363 {image}
Update:
I closed this trade this past week for a small loss. Last week's COT report was very ugly & yesterday's report showed more of the same as expected. Record one-week shift from long to short & plenty of room to pile on the short side. I thought the funds might just chop it up & down before the Mar. 31st report rather than take any large positions. Very poor decision by me for not paying attention to chart technicals.

***Big USDA planting intentions report this coming friday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
  • #755
  • Mar 25, 2017 5:05pm Mar 25, 2017 5:05pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Update: I closed this trade this past week for a small loss. Last week's COT report was very ugly & yesterday's report showed more of the same as expected. Record one-week shift from long to short & plenty of room to pile on the short side. I thought the funds might just chop it up & down before the Mar. 31st report rather than take any large positions. Very poor decision by me for not paying attention to chart technicals. ***Big USDA planting intentions report this coming friday. {image} {image}
Thanks for the heads up ... . Another product (or group of products) in which seasonality can rear its ugly head and bite you in the butt ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #756
  • Mar 25, 2017 5:09pm Mar 25, 2017 5:09pm
Top >70 IVR (6 month) stocks: SFM (100/58) (E* 40); CFG (88/41); SAN 71/86; BAC (71/31) (E 24); CAT (70/27) (E 34)

Top IVR (6 month) ETF's: FEZ (86/20); XLV (68/17); XRT (67/22)

SNAP hasn't been along enough to generate a 6-month IVR metric, but its background IV is at 59%.

* -- Denotes earnings, followed by days until.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #757
  • Mar 25, 2017 5:44pm Mar 25, 2017 5:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Top >70 IVR (6 month) stocks: SFM (100/58) (E* 40); CFG (88/41); SAN 71/86; BAC (71/31) (E 24); CAT (70/27) (E 34) Top IVR (6 month) ETF's: FEZ (86/20); XLV (68/17); XRT (67/22) SNAP hasn't been along enough to generate a 6-month IVR metric, but its background IV is at 59%. * -- Denotes earnings, followed by days until.
I'm leaning toward playing one of the ETF's and/or SNAP. The rest in the list ... . Might as well wait until earnings 4-6 weeks out.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #758
  • Mar 28, 2017 10:12am Mar 28, 2017 10:12am
Thumb twiddling here as I wait for the ACAT transfer between brokers to be completed ... . I figured that was easier than shutting all my positions down, moving funds into my bank account from the closed brokerage account, and then transferring funds to the new one. However, there's a few days' processing time when you're basically in limbo -- the old broker's locked up the positions (you can see them, but can't do squat with them), so you want to make sure that nothing urgent needs to be done while all that stuff's going on in "the ether."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #759
  • Mar 29, 2017 5:41pm Mar 29, 2017 5:41pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Thumb twiddling here as I wait for the ACAT transfer between brokers to be completed ... .
how are you liking the TW so far? I funded the account a month or 2 ago and have not placed a single trade....my volume way down as I have been buried in dayjob workload. But I am seeing daylight & need to start trading that account.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #760
  • Mar 29, 2017 6:18pm Mar 29, 2017 6:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}how are you liking the TW so far? I funded the account a month or 2 ago and have not placed a single trade....my volume way down as I have been buried in dayjob workload. But I am seeing daylight & need to start trading that account.....
I should be able to tell in the next coupla days. The TDA account shows it being zero'd out, basically, so I assume my trades are floating around out there somewhere in "broker space" and should appear in the TastyWorks account tomorrow or Friday.

I have a couple of rolls I can do in the next couple of days, so we'll see then ... . It's basically Dough, which I almost used exclusively before the Tasties parted ways with TDA. In the end, though, it's literally all about the fees ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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