The Paradox System

Evaluation
I think this was a good trade, went a few pips into the negative before going down for 40 pips. Confluence was strong downtrend on all three charts, SAR attached at EMA resistance and 23.6 fibo. My plan called for a hit on parabolic but I saw this confluence and pulled the trigger. White crossed purple on H2 and smooth was at purple, but was not going to cross EMA on the next candle, therefore a shallow push up. Anyway any feedback is greatly appreciated.

Your doing all the right things, well done.

Thank you Shinny

self evaluation: indecisive when making plan because of the H2 EMA/macd arrows, PSAR flipped. TBH was thinking long but just didn't see it and the h1 wasn't showing signs of strength.
travelled to work and opened phone chart up at 8.00AM and saw the Red arrow and went short for the + 40 no screen shot but price and TP below.

Sorry Miau used your post, working off phone is pretty tough

next part of the puzzle for longer term is one Objective (snapshots are plenty the next few hours I think??) patients is the key

It's okay man, nice job!

Trade result: +6 pips.

Self evaluation: Trade closed before news as per the rules, it went long for around 34 pips but went back against the operation. Should consider more H2 ROMAR trend and less D1 ROMAR trend the next time because it held me from taking the short trade from SAR tonight, so I consider this operation a loss despite the slight profit.

Date - 23/3/20

D1: (Purple balance: Up)
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance & Support
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Last DB Attachment 119.313
Fibonacci - Down

Notes: News in2hours and then nothing until morning. All horsemen are looking down too, but Lightskyblue divergence, ROMAR being support and D1 balance makes me see long, I have a hard time going against D1 ROMAR (any input on this would be appreciated, am I wrong seeying it like that?).

H2:
ROMAR - Resistance (far away)
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Last DB Attachment 119.313
Fibonacci - Up

Notes: Double divergence and price box for the up, and DB/SAR setup for the up too.

H1:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Fibonacci - Up
Notes:



Final Notes for all three charts: I see everything a bit mixed due to D1 balance & ROMAR and H2 DB/SAR setup & divergence against the short.

Entry:
Consolidation: Will make readjustments when I see a clearer picture.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Date: 23-03-2017 Sydney Session 21:30 GMT

Daily:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - down
Last DB Attachment – down 119.313
Fibo down

Notes: Downtrend. DB running with LSB divergence down. EMA resistance Romar support squeeze getting tighter. Daily candle resistance at purple.

2 HR:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - down
Last DB Attachment – low 119.313
Fibo up

Notes: Downtrend. EMA sliding over purple keeping trend down along with parabolics. LSB divergence, Gold divergence, DB and SAR attached at 0 fib with lime price tag.

1 HR:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - down
Fibo up

Notes: Downtrend. EMA sliding over purple keeping trend down. White crossed purple, now smooth at purple turning back into downtrend.

Final Notes for all three charts: All three charts in consistent with downtrend. Daily Romar still support so holding in downtrend consolidation. My concern is the LSB Gold divergence, SAR and DB on fibo 0 on H2. Gold appearing indicating end of trend? (Still lots of learning on divergence to do) The candle after the attachment retraced up to smooth and then EMA resistance and then back into downtrend. New daily candle should place EMA right near Romar, so waiting to see what happens.

Entry:

Short: Short off resistance

Notes for readjustments: Waiting for new daily at Tokyo open to see what daily Romar/EMA does.

Pulled trigger short Tokyo open at smooth.

Date: 24/03/17 06.15 GMT

Daily:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing: Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow: Down
Last DB Attachment: 119.313 with SAR
Fibo: Down

Notes: The Daily has the 4 horsemen in a down trend against the ROMAR Trend. DB and LSB attached to carry on the down. Fibo red. Daily in Balance.

2 HR:
OPEN PRICE – 119.654 – 119.998
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing: Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow: Up
Last DB Attachment: 119.313
Fibo: Up

Notes: The 2 hour has the four horsemen turning on the up. Against the ROMAR trend, SAR att L/H above purple and PSAR top of candle 120.031. DB and LSB attached with lime tag at the low green Fibo, with Gold Divergence. MACD before Green EMA. PSAR just set in stone.

1 HR:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing: Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow: Up
Last DB Attachment: N/A
Fibo: Up

Notes: The 1 hour has the four horsemen turning for the up.

Final Notes for all three charts: the market is in consolidation, The Daily is in Balance but still heading down. Watching reaction at Purple. The H2 turning up all arrows pointing up for the next swing. EMA almost crossed Purple to confirm. The H1 also turning up.
Entry:
Consolidation: long off support in the moment
Long:
Short:

NEWS: US goods orders 12.30 GMT

Hi everyone, I'm studying behind the scenes everyday and would like some guidance from the pros, I'm not looking to be spoonfed however I have studied the above post and others relating to divergences and am still confused. I realise when for example we are in an uptrend the magenta divergence will show first and then after a retrace to support the green divergence appears at a higher price........ but I'm still confused as to why this happens sometimes and not others, the way I see it sometimes price reverses and retraces but doesn't bounce higher from support but just continues with the down ( in uptrend example ) Is this variable only working in a certain situation in consolidation? if you look at Dove's example it's clear, but why doesn't price retrace from the light blue connection ( 123.079 ) to resistance and continue down? Is it just the colour of the fibo??I'm really confused and would appreciate a point in the right direction I'm willing to study but have hit a wall!! many thanks in advance, Derek.

Hi,I'm new here. I got a question of the time zone setting.
My time zone is GMT +8 which is 12 GMT ahead of New York and my broker time on the MT4 is GMT+2,which is 6 GMT ahead of New York.
So, Is it mean that the number 6 and minus 12,I have to label gmtServerOffset is set for -6?

Thank you for your reply,god bless you.

Busy day at work so only got time to review now.

Evaluation:
I stuffed this one right up.

There was a gap on the daily to purple, with the previous two daily candles not actually touching purple which gave imbalance?

When I went for the short on H2 at Tokyo open, white was at purple for the cross. DB, SAR, LSB and Gold divergence all at 0 fibo with fibo green for the up. Another note is the up down up down MACD arrows on H2 which I should have included in my plan. I should not have anticipated EMA and Romar touch/ cross on the daily for a full blown downtrend, until it crosses, it doesn't cross.

Good job I have this weekend set for studying, any feedback is greatly appreciated.

Edit: I know see a clearer picture checking again, The daily purple was the resistance. The entry was at the pullback to resistance with confluence: DB and magenta divergence on H2 swing up, with H1 BB hit right on Romar and connection with daily purple. The swing up on H2 was going to be shallow as after smooth crossed purple, EMA didn't cross purple on the next candle. Anyway, I could be completely wrong

Self Evaluation: mixed emotions, thought I had it correct especially as it took off to start, then DB attached. started to turn back down off D Purple and H1 ROMAR(STUBBORN OR WHAT) plenty of snapshots for future (different again)
going to close for + 30 but still not sure.
anyway all have a good weekend and God Bless.

I've been reading 'trading in the zone" and here is an excerpt from it. I noticed that this was one of Shaun's favorite books a while back and it makes sense. Trading is not just about a perfect system. I for one have entered trades that won over 80% of the time but my psychology effected me and I exited way to soon even in a demo account. I have realized that I can read the signals correctly but I have a mental problem after I enter. that is my struggle. This is a good read for the serious trader.

For those who have learned how to be consistent, or have broken through what I call the "threshold of consistency,"the money is not only within their grasp; they can virtually take it at will. I'm sure that some will find this statement shocking or difficult to believe, but it is true. There are some limitations, but for the most part, money flows into the accounts of these traders with such ease and effortlessness that it literally boggles most people's minds. However, for the traders who have not evolved into this select group, the word "seemingly" means exactly what it implies. It seems as if the consistency or ultimate success they desire is "at hand," or "within their grasp," just before it slips away or evaporates before their eyes, time and time again. The only thing about trading that is consistent with this group is emotional pain. Yes, they certainly have moments of elation, but it is not an exaggeration to say that most of the time they are in a state of fear, anger, frustration, anxiety, disappointment, betrayal, and regret. So what separates these two groups of traders? Is it intelligence? Are the consistent winners just plain smarter than everyone else? Do they work harder? Are they better analysts, or do they have access to better trading systems? Do they possess inherent personality characteristics that make it easier for them to deal with the intense pressures of trading? All of these possibilities sound quite plausible, except when you consider that most of the trading industry's failures are also some of society's brightest and most accomplished people. The largest group of consistent losers is composed primarily of doctors, lawyers, engineers, scientists, CEOs, wealthy retirees, and entrepreneurs. Furthermore, most of the industry's best market analysts are the worst traders imaginable. Intelligence and good market analysis can The Road to Success certainly contribute to success, but they are not the defining factors that separate the consistent winners from everyone else. Well, if it isn't intelligence or better analysis, then what could it be? Having worked with some of the best and some of the worst traders in the business, and having helped some of the worst become some of the best, I can state without a doubt that there are specific reasons why the best traders consistently out-perform everyone else.

Food for thought. Thank you for this post, I am going to read it also.

Dana is a great trader. Period. There's no way to analyze it. He is a master and I'm trying so hard to enter into his mindset. It is not easy for the analyst. We have to let go, let go, let go, and let go some more. The scenarios are coming to me more and more the harder I study. I don't post plans anymore because I'm only studying right now. Posting plans for me was all about ego and I had to let that go because it was proving that I was right and that was a mistake. I don't know how to post plan without my ego so I stand on the sidelines learning and watching from our teacher.

Its a great book and should be read several times by anybody wanting to take trading seriously. It really is true that the major obstacle to success is our own behaviour and overcoming that is the key to the mint.

What is a successful trader?

By successful I mean consistently profitable, first and foremost. But I would argue that success in anything is also measured by level of happiness and overall quality of life. Therefore, we’ll define a successful trader as someone who’s trading for the right reasons and is able to achieve his or her goals through trading the Forex market.

What does it means "for the right reasons"?

It begins with the right MINDSET. Your mindset should always be for a better life for yourself and your family; and never about the money in trying to get rich. If your mindset is for the money only then it would be best to look somewhere else. The Forex Market is never forgiving and with a wrong mindset you will go bankrupt.

Learning to trade the Forex in the beginning consist of losing and wining; and a successful trader has the mindset that a loss is simply feedback. It is a mindset of learning even being successful. This means it is a constant learning experience throughout your entire career as a trader. Without the proper mindset then the progress of learning will always be a constant manifesting of losing trades.

The biggest factor of a successful trader is known as having an EDGE. An edge is everything about the way you trade that can help put the odds in your favor. It’s a combination of the time frame you trade, the key levels you've identified, your risk to reward ratio, etc. It even goes as far as your pre and post trade routine. How do you handle losses? What do you do when you win? These are all things that make up your trading edge.

Although there are dozens of factors that make up your edge, you don’t have to master all of them at once. Nor do you have to master all of them to start putting the odds in your favor. It’s perfectly natural to master one set of factors and then slowly expand to others to further define your edge. Not only is this natural, it’s the preferred way to learn.

For example, master identifying key levels of support and resistance along with an entry off an indicator strategy. This is really all you need to start seeing your profit curve rise. Then once you’re comfortable with those two, strengthen your trading edge by learning stop loss strategies or different entry and exit strategies.

The key is to only tackle one or two factors at a time. Using a slow and steady approach will get you on the road to becoming a successful trader in no time.

Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with the 40/40 rule orders from the beginning.

I remember when I first started trading Forex, I would spend countless hours studying setups over the weekend; and not just in one sitting. I would often come back to my trading desk multiple times on Saturday and Sunday. Then on Monday, more often than not, I would end up taking a completely different trade setup only to watch the original setup move in the intended direction without me.

Sound familiar?

As soon as I stopped over-analyzing trade setups and trying to make them work, my profit curve started to rise. Now I spend maybe 20 minutes per day looking at my charts; after my plan had been created by using my EDGE. As counter-intuitive as it may seem, learning to not try as hard was one of the things that completely changed my trading career for the better. Learn to trust your intuition and stop second guessing yourself and the system in which you had created your trading plan from.

There aren't many guarantees in the Forex market. But one guarantee I can make without a shadow of a doubt is that there’s no successful Forex trader who is trading today for money he needs tomorrow. In other words, trading Forex to gain a certain amount of money within a specific period of time.

I’m not saying that you can’t generate the majority (if not all) of your income from trading and do it full time. I would be contradicting myself if I made that statement.
What I am saying is that no successful trader needs a win today to pay the electric bill tomorrow. No trader can sustain that kind of pressure and become consistently profitable. That kind of environment will only foster destructive emotions like fear and greed. Always have a mindset of a full month of profitable trading before even thinking of paying bills.

You must always have a mindset of walking away after a trade. This is because our emotions are running wild and often get the best of us. But that’s exactly why walking away at this time can be beneficial.

After a win we’re feeling good about ourselves and our trading strategy. It feels like things are finally starting to click. Walking away at this time can feel like walking away from the TV after your favorite sports team just scored. But walking away at this time might be exactly what you need.

Taking a break after a win will allow your emotions to settle. After the win you’re feeling excited and proud of yourself, and you have every right to be. But pride and excitement have no place in the Forex market. It is always the best to walk away until the next day.

So the next time you have a winning trade, pat yourself on the back and then walk away. By the time you come back to your trading desk, the next day, your emotions will be under control and you’ll be ready to approach the market in a neutral state of mind.

What do you do immediately following a loss? I can’t speak for you, but I know what I used to do. I would immediately start going through all my charts looking for a new setup. This is a trap!

If you’re doing this it means your emotions are getting the best of you. After a loss it’s far too easy to feel as though you need to win your money back.

Instead of seeing a loss as a reason to hop back in the market, take it as a signal to look at what you could have done differently. Remember, it’s just feedback.

So why is the failure rate so high for Forex traders?

Simply put, most traders haven’t yet learned how to lose. Our emotions will always try to outweigh our logic after a loss; it’s human nature. The key to becoming successful isn't about eliminating emotions after a loss, it’s about channeling them in a way that will make you a better trader.

The successful trader knows this, and has learned how to control these emotions. Often times the process of controlling these emotions begins with walking away to take a break until the next day so the emotions can be calm.

One thing I've found helpful after a trade is to close my trading platform until the next day opening at 17:00 New York time. This is when I do the bulk of my analysis since I trade the daily time frame. So it just makes sense to take a breather until then.

It’s a really simple, yet extremely helpful way of controlling your emotions. Although it’s simple, you’ll likely find walking away after a trade to be one of the hardest changes you've had to make to the way you trade. But trust me when I tell you that it can have a drastic effect on your consistency and put you one step closer to becoming a successful trader.

You must remain consistent with a mindset of "never giving up".

Let me tell you a story of a trader I know.

This guy was trading the market before the Internet was even publicly available. Back when you had to call in orders by telephone.

At any rate, as of 2011 the guy was trading an account size to where a profitable trade ranged between $50k and $100k. Needless to say he has been doing something right over the past 30 years.

Someone asked him what he would attribute as the #1 reason for his success. Expecting him to say proper risk management or cutting losses, he answered with four short words…

“I never gave up”.

That was his only answer to the question. He later went on to say that he had been beat down more than anyone could ever believe. Even to the point where he had lost ALL of his money. Not just trading money, but every penny to his name. He was so obsessed with becoming successful that he had risked all the money he had, and lost.

Not only did he fight through it, but he went on to become a multi-millionaire. Those mistakes in his early days of trading didn't keep him down, they empowered him and fueled his desire to become a successful trader.

This guy was a retail trader using his own money, not a prop trader (although he did have a stint as a prop trader during his trading career). However he made his millions as a retail trader.

Just be sure to remember this story every time you get down on yourself. The next time you lose a trade or even blow up a trading account, just remember that not giving up is the #1 key to becoming a successful trader.

The Matrix says it all: Know thyself and never give up. By knowing yourself as being objective is the biggest part of the EDGE - "for the right reasons".

Thank you Dana for those amazing words. I hope to be a trader like you some day. Right now I am not rushing it like I use to but holding your words very dear to heart. I am very flawed in my psychology and when you post these amazing words I realize that I've just begun my journey. Thanks for taking the time to not give up on us(me). I am truly your follower and I will not post a plan unless I believe that I am 100% following your rules. Man this has been a journey that has destroyed my ego not only in trading but in life as well. I really hold your teachng in the highest regard. My eyes are beginning to recognize the visuals that you speak of and that I believe is key and that is why a trader cannot analyze. What an incredible system that is by no doubt inspired. Not sure how else I can explain it but the paradox is beginning to speak to me without analysis. How frustrated it must be for those that don't get when you know that anyone can gain understanding when they stop thinking. Onward I will press and Thanks again!!