Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29


Banks Scramble For Free ECB Money: €233.5 BIllion Allotted To 464 Banks In Final TLTRO Operation


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Mar 23, 2017 8:07 AM

As previewed last night ahead of today's fourth and final ECB TLTRO-II operation which took place earlier this morning, a big take up was expected with market consensus expecting €115bn, and some forecasts as high as €300BN. The final number came almost in the middle, with the ECB reporting it had allotted €233.5 billion among 474 bidders, more than double the amount expected.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...ro%20ecb_0.jpg



Following the news, European stocks climbed, led by mining and bank shares, as lenders borrowed more than double what was forecast under the European Central Bank’s TLTRO program.


The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.3 percent to 375.21 as of 11:31 a.m. London time, set to end three days of losses. European miners extended their gains to 0.9 percent, following metals prices higher, and the banks sector rose 0.6 percent. Lenders were allotted 233.5 billion euros in final round of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations, the ECB said.


As we further noted last night, from a rates perspective, what matters is whether these funds will trigger flows into the bond or swap markets as banks set up carry trades. As ABN AMRO noted, carry trades have certainly looked attractive and currently there is a possible spread of around 80bp between the rate on the TLTRO and similar maturity peripheral bonds. However, there is little evidence that banks have used TLTRO-II funds for carry trades over the last few months.



While it remains to be seen if this latest TLTRO will spur further risk on trades, the initial reaction to the far greater than expected take up favorable, sending both risk assets, US equity futures and European bond markets higher.


The final TLTRO result can be summarized as follows:
The ECB announced €233 bn of take-up (by 474 banks) in the fourth and final TLTRO-2 auction. TLTRO-2 is a four-year facility, provided on a full allotment and fixed rate (at 0%) basis. The rate can fall to -0.4%, assuming loan growth targets are met. Three points:

1. The take-up was more than double what Wall Street expected (€115 bn expectation vs. €233 bn actual). It is also almost 4x higher vs. the previous high of €62 bn (December 2016 auction).
2. Today’s take-up brings total utilisation of the TLTRO-2 facility to €739 bn gross and €329 bn net of TLTRO-1 repayments.
3. A stronger take-up was expected, owing to multiple factors (pricing, accounting treatment, loan growth and this being the last auction). €233 bn of incremental liquidity in the system is positive from a sector-resilience perspective.

That said, as Goldman writes in response to the TLTRO announcement, the bank "does not see today’s take-up as having scope to meaningfully change market perception of European bank share prices."
Finally, for those wondering why the dramatic pick up, as Goldman further writes, attractiveness of the facility had improved for four main reasons:

1. Pricing: fixed-rate pricing is an attractive structure in a world with an upward rate bias.
2. Accounting treatment: multiple banks started to accrue a negative rate on the facility since inception, given the high probability of beating the benchmark. This improved the attractiveness of the facility.
3. Loan benchmarks are achievable, as loan growth has shown timid signs of improvement, increasing the probability of surpassing the ECB’s benchmark.
4. Last auction: an additional incentive was that there is no “next time”.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...20gs%201_0.jpg


COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: If there was anything EVER needed to convince Forex Traders what they need to be aware of to be a winning Forex Trader then this article makes that very clear. When I am at my computer during my Forex trading day , I am always reading and looking for information that explains why the markets are moving. Now we know and it is to our advantage. Now I can do my other work outside of my office always having my cellphones and tablet with me to always being able to trade and monitor events.

FOLLOW UP ... As I keep telling Forex Traders , I could not trade without having the TV on in front of me as I just heard that there MIGHT NOT BE A VOTE TODAY on the American Healthcare Act. That has caused movements in the market. Bye for now !!!

Gold Update

I found this on a news post

On the liter side of things, hope you find it entertaining

made my day

very funny - very true - very sad - it is your pension fund !!!

Hello Forex Traders

I am back and I reviewed some other threads that I subscribe to. One of them is the USD/JPY thread and here is a paste of the last post along with a good USD/JPY chart. I will add my comments after you read the post and look at the chart.

 

1. Post 64,776
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Last Post: Mar 23, 12:10pm (1 hr 39 min ago)

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar100812_5.gif Tom81
2. Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Member | 269 Posts | Online Now

DailyFX client sentiment (76 % long) makes you think twice before going USD/JPY medium term long. Oanda (63 % long) and Dukascopy (70% long) similar story...

"We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias."
Attached Image
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1490285409


Now on to some FINVIZ Charts on USD/JPY...

First look at the daily chart going back to Election Day in the USA on November 8, 2016. You can see how as the Dow 30 (US 30) and the SPX500 went up to the sky how USD/JPY also got weaker and went up. Now look at another chart on USD/JPY on an hourly chart.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=h1

Now you can see how it came down from 115.000 to 111.000

Here is a more detailed chart from the USD/JPY thread showing the range between 115.000 and 111.000

 

1. LaoOnlineFX
2. | Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Member | 7 Posts

uj posibly to reach 112.5 or not?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1490276821

My point is to look at the EXCELLENT CHART that I just posted and think about this.

Since USD/JPY has gone up and then come down from 115..000 to 111.000 and now we wait to see where it will go however all the SUPPORT and RESISTANCE lines and PIVOT POINTS are based on the RANGE of 115.000 to 111.000 SO when the Dow 30 (US30) and SPX500 goes back to EARTH and we know that it will all the lines on all the charts need to be drawn over again. This makes I hope much clearer to understand the danger by projecting directions just from the charts.

When USD/JPY is at 108.000 YOU CAN BE SURE that Dow 30 (US 30) will be below 20,000 again because of the CORRELATION and the Money Flow into safer Assets such as the US Bonds and of course USD/JPY.

I would ask one of our excellent chart makers to produce a chart based on Dow 30 (US 30) being at 19,500 and where will USD/JPY be trading at ?

I just checked visually and between November 2016 and December 2016 when the Dow 30 (US 30) was at 19,000 , USD/JPY was at 108.000
It still will be nice to see a CORRELATION CHART !!! Thanks !!!


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

GOP Lawmaker: "If I Were A Betting Man, I'd Say There Won't Be A Vote Today"
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Mar 23, 2017 2:11 PM



Despite Sean Spicer claiming during his daily press conference that the vote to repeal Obamacare will still take place tonight as previously scheduled, others disagree. Several lawmakers quoted by the Hill say that the House will likely delay its vote until Friday or next week, several lawmakers said. "It didn't look like today was going to be when we're going to vote," said Rep. Phil Roe (R-Tenn.) after leaving a meeting with committee chairs and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who controls the House floor schedule.

Roe said a vote may come Friday.

The vote on the healthcare bill was originally planned for Thursday, the seven-year anniversary of the day ObamaCare was signed into law, however as of 1:30 p.m., GOP leaders had not made a final decision about whether to delay the vote until Friday or next week. The decision was further complicated after negotiations between the White House and the Freedom Caucus broke down as reported shortly after 1 pm.


Meanwhile, Sean Spicer said he still expects the bill to come up for a vote Thursday. "That would obviously be up to Speaker [Paul] Ryan and [House Majority] Leader [Kevin] McCarthy, but nothing leads me to believe that’s the case," he said.


Spicer also said the whip count of votes in favor of the bill is improving. “We continue to see the number go up, not down, and that’s a very positive sign.”

Yet several House GOP lawmakers and a GOP chief of staff predicted a vote would be postponed past Thursday night.


"If I were a betting man, I'd say there won't be a vote today," one GOP lawmaker told The Hill. "At this point, it would have to be [delayed]," said a chief of staff to a top House Republican. "They won't want to vote in the middle of the night."

GOP leaders, however, also were feeling enormous pressure from some rank-and-file members to press on with the vote Thursday. They warned delaying any further could kill the bill outright the Hill reported.

“At some point you gotta say there’s nothing in this world that’s gonna change [the Freedom Caucus’s] minds. I think the window for making a decision is rapidly closing. We need to either vote or go home,” an exasperated Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Ala.) told reporters.


“I think the chances for getting the bill done after this week get smaller. They don’t go to zero. No such thing as never or impossible,” Byrne added. “But the chances of passing this bill get a lot lower after this week.”

It appears that the"the art of the deal" will go down to the wire, and may well go beyond it, which may mean a vote well after midnight.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: As of now watching CNBC the news is that the News Conference by Speaker of the House , Paul Ryan has been postponed so we see the markets selling off.

I put a new position of US 30 on of 100 units at 11:38 AM Eastern Standard Time and I have a DRAW UP now of $505 US Dollars and just might close the position if it backs up below $500 US Dollars. NO VOTE CNBC from source at NBC SO will wait as my DRAW UP is plus $620 US Dollars.
I think I will close 2 positions which would again lock in profits of another $1000 US Dollars today.

SO .... Thanks Janet ... I just closed two positions now and my US 30 gives me $756 US Dollars in profit and my SPX500 one position gives me $524 US Dollars for total locked in profits for today of $1280 US Dollars on 2 Forex Trades. That is how you can make over 10% a month trading Forex.

Thanks for the Chart , KeepCalmfx

We agree on the CORRELATION and I see you are online SO what do you think of what I said in my post ?

Get a good rest ...


Benjaminis

A Good Memory also helps as I had pointed out in past posts how there was late buying coming into the Equity Markets between 3:30 PM and 4:00 PM.

If I would have not been aware of that and if I was greedy and not happy with locked in profits of $1280 US Dollars for a few minutes markets reversed so now I do not care if it closes UP or DOWN ...

I still have 4 open positions of US 30 and SPX500 and my Draw Down is $911 US Dollars and my Equity is now $56,207.66 US Dollars including the DRAW DOWN.


Benjaminis

Hello awm

Nice to see you here. I got your PM. Please do not be shy and feel free to ask me any questions that you have.

The more the better as by communicating we both learn.

Forex trading is a fascinating business especially when you earn money. It is not that hard when you have the EDGE and good Forex Traders around to help you grow and learn and have FUN !!!


Benjaminis

Follow Up To Sentiment Post that I shared here earlier because of excellent remarks made by the poster. Thanks Tom81 - Benjaminis

 

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar100812_5.gif Tom81
2. Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Member | 270 Posts | Online Now

Quoting Tekkonkira
{quote} Hey Tom i'm fairly new to trading would like to ask you if you always take the contrarian view to the sentiment data? Thanks man
Experience has taught me that when trading in direction of the main trend (impulse waves), it is best to have contrarian view to retail traders sentiment. When I want to "catch" short term reversal in corrective wave, I take the same direction as retail traders (after seeing at least one, better two divergences between price action and RSI - slowing price momentum and some inverse price pattern like double top, H&S, TL break, shooting star, evening star, engulfing candlesticks etc).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1490296917

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2017/0...eveloping.html

SUNDAY, MARCH 19, 2017
Seven Training Resources For Developing Traders
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-b4Bmyav4D...Understand.jpg
If you look at successful programs of training, you'll see three elements:

1) Hearing - Having information taught to you;
2) Seeing - Seeing skills being performed based on the information being applied;
3) Doing - Trying out the skills yourself, with ongoing feedback and guidance from a mentor

Think about apprenticeship programs in the trades; the training of military recruits; the medical education of physicians; and the training of elite athletes. All involve acquisition of knowledge/information; observation of advanced practitioners applying the knowledge; and supervised efforts to apply the knowledge oneself. In this three-fold process, we make the transition from theory to skill development.

What we're seeing is an increasing number of offerings to developing traders that integrate the hearing, seeing, and doing through a combination of videos, live trading sessions, and active mentoring/teaching. Back in the day, trader education generally meant someone giving a class on a topic--and that was it! Obviously that didn't help traders translate theory into practice.

Here are some outlets for more complete training and support of developing traders that I'll list in alphabetical order. My goal is not to formally review or endorse these, and none knows that I'm writing this article. Rather, the idea is to point developing traders in a few directions that could prove promising. If I have missed some excellent comprehensive resources, please feel free to let me know at steenbab at aol dot com.

* Crosshairs Trader - David Blair has assembled a comprehensive suite of educational videos and daily watchlists, reviews, and mentoring to help traders apply chart-based setups in real time. Great way to see how an experienced trader approaches market opportunity.

* Exceptional Trader - Terry Liberman has assembled a unique coaching resource for traders. The focus is not on finding trade setups, but rather on building your trading business and figuring out what *your* edge is in markets. Regular webinars and group as well as individual coaching. Great way to think through the big picture of your trading.

* Futures.io - Mike has built a large and active trader community with chat and frequent webinars and downloadable trading tools and resources. Topics on the discussion threads range from trading journals to the creation of quant tools for trading. Great way to learn from others.

* Investors Underground - Nate and team have assembled an active trading community that offers beginning and advanced courses, chat rooms for different strategies, daily watchlists, webinars, and mentoring. The courses cover a range of topics from chart patterns and setups to scanning for opportunity and reading Level 2 information. Great way to connect with a variety of mentors and traders in a community.

* NewTraderU - Steve Burns explicitly addresses the learning process of new traders with courses on such topics as using moving averages in trading and trading with options. He also maintains an active blog and has written several ebooks. Great introduction to trading.

* OpenTrader - Ziad and Awais offer a comprehensive training program that includes a large number of videos, exercises to drill skills, and live mentoring/coaching. A unique aspect is the grounding in auction theory and Market Profile. Great way to approach trading with a well constructed curriculum that moves from theory to practice.

* SMB-U - Mike and Steve have built SMB's training programs into a successful proprietary trading firm. Detailed courses integrate video, skill drills, and a real time audio feed to their trading desk. Topics range from foundation skills to tape reading and options trading. Their in-house training includes practice trading on a simulator, access to quant tools to improve trading, and daily mentoring. Great way to learn hands-on.

Interested traders will want to investigate offerings and the cost of those offerings thoroughly before seeking training. Note that most of these services are offered for active/day traders and especially those in the stock market. If you do investigate, I think you'll be surprised by the depth of offerings and the degree to which information is supplemented with active opportunities to watch experienced traders in action and try out their methods for yourself.

For those looking for a low overhead start with trading education, check out Adam Grimes' site, which contains a podcast covering relevant trading topics and a free trading course that tackles topics ranging from technical analysis and psychology to quant trading and options.

Further Reading: Fake and Real Education in Trading

===============================


SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2017
Fake and Real Education in Trading
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hcntPajoL...esInternet.jpg
We've heard a lot lately about fake news, both from the political right and left. The truth is that it's difficult to report truth, objectively. Too often agendas slant what we present, turning what should be enlightenment into persuasion or, at worst, propaganda. A credible academic journal presents studies supporting and not supporting various ideas, allowing the data to speak for themselves as much as possible. No one would read an academic journal that only published information supporting specific views, suppressing contrary evidence.

In trading, we see a great deal of web content, seminars, webinars, and books offered as "education". Too often, this is fake education, in that it promotes a particular agenda that is marketed by the writer. How often have we seen something offered as education that starts with a tease and ends with a sales pitch to get interested students to purchase a service or product? That's an infomercial, not information. It's not education; it's advertising.

So what is *real* trading education?

* Real education educates. You come away with specific information and/or skills that you didn't previously possess.

* Real education is on the cutting edge. It provides new information and new skills. It does not merely repeat what has been written many times previously. If what you encounter in a book or webinar could have been encountered three years ago, thirteen years ago, or thirty years ago, it's rehashing, not educating.

* Real education is grounded. It draws upon actual research and actual practice. It is not mere opinion or preference.

* Real education stands on its own. It is not a throwawaylead-in for commercial products or services.

As many of you know, I teach in a medical school. I value the education and training of medical students and residents, and I especially respect the continuing education of practicing physicians. Without continuing education, a physician is locked in old information and old practices and become stale. Patients suffer. Without quality continuing education, traders--and their capital--suffer the same fate. Education is far too important to be left to fakery.

True continuing education for experienced traders is the next great frontier in trader development. Not rehashings of worn out technical trading patterns, bromides about discipline, or trading tales from old timers. Real, actionable education based on real research and real practice. It's an important part of what distinguishes a profession from a hobby.


.Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.at 6:48 AM


Note: TraderFeed will move to a weekend basis of publication starting this coming week, but I will repost popular pieces during the week re: topics that seem currently relevant.
. Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.at 8:09 AM

https://yragharris.com/2017/03/23/quicktake/

« Notes From Underground: Switzerland Was Named The Fourth-Happiest Country


Notes From Underground: A Quick Take On Today’s Key Points
The vote on the Trump health care plan is important only from the perspective of what the Freedom Caucus was promised in return for acquiescing to the desires of the White House. President Trump is desirous of a win, any win and the Freedom Caucus seems to know they have great leverage in the current political scrum. Whatever the House passes the Senate will have home field advantage and last bat so the initial Trump victory will Pyrrhic at best.

What was compromised to assuage the conservative wing of the Republican party? How far will Trump have bent to bring this deal to fruition? The strident nature of the Freedom Caucus has been elevated and what value was extracted?

The price to be paid will certainly be great for the Trump agenda will be destroyed by those who really wish to drain the Washington swamp.

The equity markets will rally on any initial sense of a Trump victory but I will curtail my enthusiasm until I have a sense of the cost of victory.


***Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announcement its interest decision and decided to maintain its overnight “Official Cash Rate” (OCR) at 1.75%.

The important issue for global finance was the Governor Graeme Wheeler again invoked the need to pressure the Kiwi dollar lower. “The trade-weighted exchange rate has fallen 4 percent since February, partly in response to weaker dairy prices and reduced interest rate differentials. This is an encouraging move, but further depreciation is needed to achieve more balance growth.”


The G-20 opposes currency manipulation but yet many central banks express the need to keep stimulative monetary as an effort to weaken currency values.

The unfortunate thing is that it plays right to Peter Navarro and the White House. Currency depreciation will be a tool of the Trump White House when needed and statements from the RBNZ and others will provide political cover.


***The Swiss National Bank (SNB) must be reading Notes From Underground. Today, Andrea Maechler, one of the three members of the SNB Governing Board, issued a statement about the SNB investment policy and its distinctive features. Maechler admits that the global uncertainty has kept upward pressure on the Swiss Franc forcing the SNB to be ever more aggressive in its currency intervention program. She said:
“Since the Swiss franc is an exceptionally strong currency, the SNB is able to hold a higher share of its foreign exchange reserves in equities than is deemed appropriate for most other central banks. The main difference between the SNB and institutional investors such as pension funds is that the SNB is unable to hedge the biggest risk factor for its investments–currency risk–because doing so would conflict with its monetary goals.”


The SNB reinforces my point and what reader Asherz wrote last night in the blog post: The Swiss are running the largest hedge fund in world and they can’t hedge because it would only put upward pressure on the Swiss franc.

So the SNB needs to begin purchasing a basket of commodities, especially large amounts of GOLD as the ultimate hedge against global financial uncertainty. Just imagine the political uproar in Switzerland if global equity markets depreciated over the next five years. It’s alchemy at its finest.

Have A Good Look At This CORRELATION CHART !!!



Symbol
Period
Daily Weekly Inspect
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24...=1490323131956

Do you see how as the US Dollar Moves Up by this pair the the Equity Markets (Dow 30) + (SPX500) so as it reverses so does USD/JPY.

I just read the first post of a new Forex Factory poster and his experience seems to be very common to many Forex Retail Traders.

Just sharing and suggesting there is a solution as we teach here daily.

Hi,
new member and first post here at FF. Just want o say a big thank you Dale for starting this thread and posting updates every day.
I have been trying to get my head around trading for the last couple of years, ripped out my hair, blown out accounts, punched my screen,
blamed my broker (of course it is the brokers fault that I loose money not me ;-) I have bought courses on Ichimoku and HA candles nothing
of it worked until I realized that it was me who had to change before anything else could change. Read the books by Mark Douglas and found your post's
pointing me in the direction of Market Profiling. And for the first time ever I start to see some consistency in my results

Again thank you so much for your work and dedication to your fellow traders!

Best regards
Ed


Benjaminis


https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...0&d=1490346911

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/vo...l-2017-part-ii

Chris Vermeulen
March 23, 2017


http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...en032317-1.jpg
Back in early February 2017, we posted an article to all our members about how our analysis showed a very strong potential for larger price swings with the potential for a massive explosion in the VIX indicator based on a price cycle pattern we had been studying.

As of right now, only 10 days into our proposed “VIX Spike Window” (from March 12th to April 15th), we thought it would be a good idea to review some of our analysis before we enter the heart of the VIX expansion window (March 25th to April 8th).
Volatility VIX Spike Calendar
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...en032317-2.png
As you may recall, we expect a, roughly, five month cycle of expanding VIX volatility to continue within the time-frames mentioned above. The peak of this volatility will likely happen between March 25th and April 8th – what we are calling the “heart of the window”. This will likely be a very tumultuous and volatile period where massive rotations in price could occur. Additionally, new or reversal trends would also be key components of this type of expanded volatility. This means active traders have an opportunity to generate some fantastic returns from these moves.

Based on my original analysis from early February, lets summarize how things are expected to play out over the next few weeks for a few key symbols.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...en032317-3.png
As you review our earlier analysis, pay attention to the details we laid out for each symbol. We expected “key top” levels to be reached at the time of the original article followed by price rotation/retracements, followed by more price trending. Pay special attention to the details we discussed for each of these symbols in the first article.

DIA pulled back near 6% (Min Volatility target reached) from recent highs and we are expecting more volatility before any future moves
QQQ pulled back 2.6% and we are expecting a deeper pullback as the volatility explodes in the near future.

XOI has fallen an additional 4.33% and we are expecting this move to continue to near $1075 (an additional -$81.50) before attempting to find a bottom.
GOLD retraced just over 5% from near $1265 and is currently in a solid uptrend. Our current gold price projection is for a move above $1310, followed by a pullback below $1280 (where we want to try to buy), followed by further upside moves to above $1350.


SILVER has retraced nearly 9% (Min Volatility Target Reached) from recent highs and is setting up potential move back above $18.00 or higher.
DIA Chart
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...en032317-4.png
Gold Chart
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...en032317-5.png
Silver Chart
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...en032317-6.png
Silver
At this point, we should be very cautious to consider only highly probable trading signals because the expected volatility in the global markets should become more violent and unpredictable. This makes for great short term Momentum Reversal trades though.

Our recent Momentum Reversal Trades have shown fantastic results like UGAZ 74% and NUGT 112%. The possibility of seeing exploding volatility over the next few weeks in combination with massive potential rotation in prices will allow us to find some incredible opportunities for followers of our work and trades.

Remember, the Heart of the volatility window should be from March 25, 2017 to April 8, 2017. You can take advantage of this by follow us at: www.ActiveTradingPartners.com
********

http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...eulen-head.jpgChris Vermeulen, founder of AlgoTrades Systems., is an internationally recognized market technical analyst and trader. Involved in the markets since 1997. Chris’ mission is to help his clients boost their investment performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility. Chris is also the founder of TheGoldAndOilGuy.com, a financial education and investment newsletter service. Chris is responsible for market research and trade alerts for multiple newsletter publications. Through years of research, trading and helping thousands of individual investorsaround the world. He designed an automated algorithmic trading software for the S&P500 index, which solves his client’s biggest problem related to investing in the stock market: the ability to profit in both a rising and falling market. He is the author of the popular book “Technical Trading Mastery – 7 Steps To Win With Logic”. He has also been featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest and dozens of other financial websites.
You can reach Chris at: [email protected].

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...rch-24th-2017/

Posted Mar 24, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....17-300x224.jpg

Today a closing above 20775 will signal that the Dow Jones Industrials is still holding firm. We see this period into May as consolidation. We have technical support at 20147 level and technical closing support at 20702. ONLY a weekly closing below 20000 would confirm a more sustainable correction into May. Otherwise, expect choppiness. The bulk of analysis still calls for a crash. This has been the biggest rally in history with the biggest amount of bearishness perhaps ever in history.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...17-600x267.jpg
We can see this week in a turning point and we should begin to see more volatility ahead. But you can see a choppy trend over other week for right now. A closing today above 20640 will also signal the market is still withing support.
If gold closes March below 1243, this will warn that a correction into May is possible. This has been merely a 3 month reaction so there is still nothing to write home about just yet. Today, gold MUST close above 1245.50 to hold on to any gains.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...17-600x267.jpg
The Euro has a Weekly Bullish Reversal at 10855. Only a closing above that level will signal strength. Otherwise, caution is still advisable. Our monthly timing models called for a bounce here into March. The next important turning point will be May.
Categories: Dow Jones, Euro €, Gold
« Market Recap

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Paul Craig Roberts: "In America Today, Facts Cannot Compete With Lies"
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Mar 23, 2017 10:15 PM


Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,
Unable to provide an ounce of evidence that a Trump/Putin conspiracy stole the presidential election from Hillary Clinton, the corrupt US “intelligence” agencies are shifting their focus to social media and to Internet sites such as Alex Jones and Breitbart. Little doubt the FBI investigation will trickle down to Glenn Greenwald at The Intercept, Zero Hedge, the Ron Paul Institute, Nomi Prins, Naked Capitalism, Lew Rockwell, Global Research, antiwar.com, and to others on the PropOrNot, Harvard Library, and Le Monde lists, such as top Reagan administration officials David Stockman and myself. It is extraordinary that the FBI is so desperate to protect the budget of the military/security complex that it brings such embarrassment to itself. Who in the future will believe any FBI report or anything a FBI official says?




Those behind this “investigation” understand that it is so ridiculous that they must give it gravity and credibility. They selected two reporters, Peter Stone and Greg Gordon, in the McClatchy News Washington Bureau, who fit Udo Ulfkotte’s definition of “bought journalists.” Hiding behind anonymous sources—“two people familiar with the inquiry” and “sources who spoke on condition of anonymity”—the presstitutes fell in with the attack on independent media, reporting that one former US intelligence official said: “This may be one of the most highly impactful information operations in the history of intelligence.” http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/poli...139695453.html


Wow! A totally ridiculous “investigation” is one of the most important in history. The implication is that the Russians are operating through scores or hundreds of independent media sites to control how Americans vote.


There was once a time in America when people were skeptical of anonymous sources. It was widely understood that anyone could tell a reporter anything and that a reporter could claim an anonymous source whether or not the source existed. Perhaps it was the Watergate “investigation” by the Washington Post that gave anonymity credibility. The Post’s reports made it sound like any sources ratting on Nixon’s perfidy was at risk of their lives, and the subtle emphasis on risk gave anonymity credibility.



The real story under our noses is not a Trump/Putin/independent media conspiracy to steal the presidential election. The real story is the totally obvious collusion between the Hillary forces, the US print and TV media (with the partial exception of Fox News), and the CIA and FBI to steal the Democratic nomination from Bernie Sanders, the presidential election from Donald Trump, and to delegitimize Trump’s election.


The theft of the nomination from Sanders is precisely what the leaked Podesta emails show. The totally one-sided presstitute support for Hillary and full-scale assault on Trump clearly show the presstitutes participation in the collusion. The extraordinary lies told in public by Obama’s CIA Director John Brennan clearly demonstrate the CIA’s lead in the attempted frame-up of Trump and his team. FBI Director Comey’s statement the day before the presidential election that the FBI had once again cleared Hillary of criminal charges sent the Dow up 371 points and set the stage for a Hillary election victory.


Why are not any of these hard facts in the news?
Why, instead, do the presstitutes and “intelligence” agencies report nothing but fake news, supported by anonymous “sources”? Why is a false reality being constructed, and the hard facts ignored?

Note another extremely strange feature of our strange time. Elements of the liberal/progressive/left portray President Trump as a member of the One Percent operating for the One Percent against the people and filling his government up with generals and his budget with more military spending. Why then is Trump under full-scale assault from the military/security complex? Why are they working to contradict, delegitimize and impeach their own agent?


If Americans were a thinking people, or even a people capable of thought, how could such inconsistent disinformation dominate public discussion?


What we should be scared about is that in America today, facts cannot compete with lies.
The McClatchy story describing a pointless investigation as one of the most important in history is working its way through the media. See:
http://www.latimes.com/politics/wash...htmlstory.html
http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/21/fb...investigation/
http://news.antiwar.com/2017/03/21/f...ia-bots/print/


Are we to conclude that America’s corrupt and disloyal “intelligence” agencies are a direct threat to democracy, that they are committed to overthrowing Trump’s presidency in a “color revolution,” that, unable to provide any evidence whatsoever for their conspiracy theory of a Trump/Putin collusion to steal the presidential election, the “intelligence” agencies have moved on to the discredit the independent Internet media that are in the way of the “intelligence” agencies’ control over explanations?


It is a hard fact that the Democrats, US “intelligence,” and the presstitutes are absolutely determined to control the explanations given to the American people and the wider world.

The Agents are out in force, and Neo is nowhere in sight.

The demonization of Russia and the extraordinary level of tension that the ignorant and foolish Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama regimes created with Russia are disconcerting, indeed, frightening to those, such as myself, Patrick Buchanan, and Stephen Cohen, who experienced the long decades of the Cold War. We have never seen such highly provocative, entirely gratuitous behavior of one nuclear power toward another as the behavior of the US toward Russia over the past six presidential terms. What the Cold Warriors of the time experienced was a gradual buildup of mutual trust that enabled Reagan and Gorbachev to end the Cold War and remove the threat of nuclear Armageddon.


In contrast, the Clinton, Bush, and Obama regimes, the FBI, CIA, NSA, the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, NPR, MSNBC, and the rest of the presstitutes, the right-wing Republicans, such as Lindsey Graham, John McCain, and Ben Sasse, the Democratic Party, and the liberal/progressive/left have convinced Russia, in the words of Russia’s President Putin, that “we cannot trust the United States.”


This “achievement” of these idiots comprises the greatest crime humans have committed in their entire history. The atomic bombs with which the Americans gratuitously destroyed two Japanese cities are mere pop guns compared to the thermo-nuclear weapons of today. Some of the crazed neoconservatives erroneously believe that Russia is not sufficiently well-armed to respond to US aggression, but the fact of the matter is that Russia’s strategic weapons are superior and more powerful than those of the US.


How can it be anything other than a death wish for European governments to be egging on conflict with Russia, for women marching not against war but against Trump for wanting to reduce tensions with Russia, for US “intelligence” to be totally committed to orchestrating a “Russian threat” that all but guarantees thermo-nuclear war? One would think that people would be marching in favor of reduced tensions with Russia and demanding that Trump deliver on this promise, not that they would be out opposing Trump. What is the importance of Identity Politics compared to nuclear war?


How can Americans, Democrats, Republicans, Greens, Europeans, Canadians, Australians, New Zealanders, and Japanese contain their outrage against the governments that are putting the life of the planet at risk for nothing except the budget and power of the US military/security complex? Trump is silly to roll back environmental protections, but this pales in comparison to the environmental damage of thermo-nuclear war.


How can the left-wing be lost in Identity Politics while the life of the planet is being put at extreme risk?
Why did CounterPunch recently and suddenly abandon the working class and peace and take up the cause of the victim groups of Identity Politics— women, blacks, homosexuals, lesbians, transgendered, and Muslim refugees (see Eric Draitser CP, Vol. 24, No. 1), the cause of the EU and globalism

(see http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/03/...e-damage-done/ ) which benefits only the One Percent, and the demonization of Trump and Putin? Perhaps it is only a coincidence, but CounterPunch’s collapse coincides with CP being put on and removed from the PropOrNot list of Russian agents/dupes. My columns, for years a welcome feature on CounterPunch, suddenly ceased to appear. We have had no explanation from CounterPunch why the site suddenly gave up on peace and bread.


One might think that the audacity of the lies from the FBI, CIA, NSA and their media whores would provoke a powerful response from the liberal/progressive/left and from European populations, but it hasn’t.


What about Trump himself? Has he been forced to abandon his goal of normal relations with Russia, as this article in the Intercept suggests? https://theintercept.com/2017/03/21/revolving-door-military/ If not, is Trump filling top Pentagon and Homeland Security positions with generals and defense contractors in order to neutralize the military from participating in a CIA/presstitute coup against him?


If Trump is eliminated, with Pence as VP and the list of appointees provided by the Intercept, the US government will pass into the hands of the military/security complex for the remainder of its existence.


Is Trump now focused on protecting himself instead of protecting all of us from a deadly conflict with Russia?
If so, this is the achievement of the US “intelligence” services, the Democratic Party, right-wing Republicans, the presstitute media, and the liberal/progressive/left.

If anyone remains to write the history of the Great Incineration, the identity of those responsible is completely clear.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Ladies and Gentleman , Good Friday

This article is true and fairly accurate and we now need to acknowledge this from here on in as a MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL ISSUE not only in our daily lives. This now has reached the stage where on a daily basis markets can and will be affected. As an example today's vote on Healthcare and the news yesterday that House Leader Schumer plans a Filibuster for the nomination of the next Supreme Court Justice who all sane thinking people accept as a excellent choice. However the Democrats and the Left are fighting for their way of life refusing to accept the policies of the last 46 years since President Richard Milhous Nixon and Henry Kissenger decoupled the US Dollar from Gold on August 15, 1971 and as a result of this one decision we and the world have arrived here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock

The Nixon shock [1] was a series of economic measures undertaken by United States President Richard Nixon in 1971, the most significant of which was the unilateral cancellation of the direct international convertibility of the United States dollar to gold.


While Nixon's actions did not formally abolish the existing Bretton Woods system of international financial exchange, the suspension of one of its key components effectively rendered the Bretton Woods system inoperative. While Nixon publicly stated his intention to resume direct convertibility of the dollar after reforms to the Bretton Woods system had been implemented, all attempts at reform proved unsuccessful. By 1973, the Bretton Woods system was replaced de facto by a regime based on freely floating fiat currencies that remains in place to the present day.

 

1. 1Background
2. 2Event
3. 3Later ramifications
4. 4See also
5. 5Notes
6. 6References
7. 7External links

Background
In 1944 in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, representatives from 44 nations met to develop a new international monetary system that came to be known as the Bretton Woods system. Conference members had hoped that this new system would “ensure exchange rate stability, prevent competitive devaluations, and promote economic growth."[2] It was not until 1958 that the Bretton Woods system became fully operational. Countries now settled their international accounts in dollars that could be converted to gold at a fixed exchange rate of $35 per ounce, which was redeemable by the U.S. government. Thus, the United States was committed to backing every dollar overseas with gold. Other currencies were fixed to the dollar, and the dollar was pegged to gold.


For the first years after World War II the Bretton Woods system worked well. With the Marshall Plan, Japan and Europe were rebuilding from the war, and countries outside the US wanted dollars to spend on American goods—cars, steel, machinery, etc. Because the U.S. owned over half the world's official gold reserves—574 million ounces at the end of World War II—the system appeared secure.[3]

However, from 1950 to 1969, as Germany and Japan recovered, the US share of the world's economic output dropped significantly, from 35% to 27%. Furthermore, a negative balance of payments, growing public debt incurred by the Vietnam War, and monetary inflation by the Federal Reserve caused the dollar to become increasingly overvalued in the 1960s.[3]

In France, the Bretton Woods system was called "America's exorbitant privilege"[4] as it resulted in an "asymmetric financial system" where non-US citizens "see themselves supporting American living standards and subsidizing American multinationals". As American economist Barry Eichengreen summarized: "It costs only a few cents for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing to produce a $100 bill, but other countries had to pony up $100 of actual goods in order to obtain one".[4] In February 1965 President Charles de Gaulle announced his intention to exchange its U.S. dollar reserves for gold at the official exchange rate.

[5]
By 1966, non-US central banks held $14 billion, while the United States had only $13.2 billion in gold reserve. Of those reserves, only $3.2 billion was able to cover foreign holdings as the rest was covering domestic holdings.[6]

By 1971, the money supply had increased by 10%.[7] In May 1971, West Germany left the Bretton Woods system, unwilling to revalue the Deutsche Mark.[8] In the following three months, this move strengthened its economy. Simultaneously, the dollar dropped 7.5% against the Deutsche Mark.[8] Other nations began to demand redemption of their dollars for gold. Switzerland redeemed $50 million in July.[8] France acquired $191 million in gold.[8] On August 5, 1971, the United States Congress released a report recommending devaluation of the dollar, in an effort to protect the dollar against "foreign price-gougers".[8] On August 9, 1971, as the dollar dropped in value against European currencies, Switzerland left the Bretton Woods system.[8] The pressure began to intensify on the United States to leave Bretton Woods.

Event[
At the time, the U.S. also had an unemployment rate of 6.1% (August 1971)[9] [notes 1] and an inflation rate of 5.84% (1971).[10]
To combat these issues, President Nixon consulted Federal Reserve chairman Arthur Burns, incoming Treasury Secretary John Connally, and then Undersecretary for International Monetary Affairs and future Fed Chairman Paul Volcker.


On the afternoon of Friday, August 13, 1971, these officials along with twelve other high-ranking White House and Treasury advisors met secretly with Nixon at Camp David. There was great debate about what Nixon should do, but ultimately Nixon, relying heavily on the advice of the self-confident Connally, decided to break up Bretton Woods by suspending the convertibility of the dollar into gold; freezing wages and prices for 90 days to combat potential inflationary effects; and impose an import surcharge of 10 percent,[11] to prevent a run on the dollar, stabilize the US economy, and decrease US unemployment and inflation rates, on August 15, 1971:[12][13]

1. Nixon directed Treasury Secretary Connally to suspend, with certain exceptions, the convertibility of the dollar into gold or other reserve assets, ordering the gold window to be closed such that foreign governments could no longer exchange their dollars for gold.
2. Nixon issued Executive Order 11615 (pursuant to the Economic Stabilization Act of 1970), imposing a 90-day freeze on wages and prices in order to counter inflation. This was the first time the U.S. government enacted wage and price controls since World War II.
3. An import surcharge of 10 percent was set to ensure that American products would not be at a disadvantage because of the expected fluctuation in exchange rates.

Speaking on television on August 15, the Sunday before the markets opened, Nixon said the following:
The third indispensable element in building the new prosperity is closely related to creating new jobs and halting inflation. We must protect the position of the American dollar as a pillar of monetary stability around the world.



In the past 7 years, there has been an average of one international monetary crisis every year...


I have directed Secretary Connally to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold or other reserve assets, except in amounts and conditions determined to be in the interest of monetary stability and in the best interests of the United States.

Now, what is this action—which is very technical—what does it mean for you?

Let me lay to rest the bugaboo of what is called devaluation.

If you want to buy a foreign car or take a trip abroad, market conditions may cause your dollar to buy slightly less. But if you are among the overwhelming majority of Americans who buy American-made products in America, your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today.
The effect of this action, in other words, will be to stabilize the dollar.[14]

The American public felt the government was rescuing them from price gougers and from a foreign-caused exchange crisis.[15][16] Politically, Nixon's actions were a great success. The Dow rose 33 points the next day, its biggest daily gain ever at that point, and the New York Times editorial read, "We unhesitatingly applaud the boldness with which the President has moved."[3]

By December 1971, the import surcharge was dropped as part of a general revaluation of the Group of Ten (G-10) currencies, which under the Smithsonian Agreement were thereafter allowed 2.25% devaluations from the agreed exchange rate. In March 1973, the fixed exchange rate system became a floating exchange rate system.[17] The currency exchange rates no longer were governments' principal means of administering monetary policy.
Later ramifications.


The Nixon Shock has been widely considered to be a political success,[citation needed] but an economic mixed bag in bringing on the stagflation of the 1970s and leading to the instability of floating currencies. The dollar plunged by a third during the '70s. According to the World Trade Review's report "The Nixon Shock After Forty Years: The Import Surcharge Revisited", Douglas Irwin reports that for several months, U.S officials could not get other countries to agree to a formal revaluation of their currencies. The German mark appreciated significantly after it was allowed to float in May 1971. Further, the Nixon Shock unleashed enormous speculation against the dollar. It forced Japan’s central bank to intervene significantly in the foreign exchange market to prevent the yen from increasing in value. Within two days August 16–17, 1971, Japan’s central bank had to buy $1.3 billion to support the dollar and keep the yen at the old rate of 360 Yen to the dollar. Japan’s foreign exchange reserves rapidly increased: $2.7 billion (30%) a week later and $4 billion the following week. Still, this large-scale intervention by Japan’s central bank could not prevent the depreciation of US dollar against the yen. France also was willing to allow the dollar to depreciate against the franc, but not allow the franc to appreciate against gold (Page 14 Douglas). Even much later, in 2011, Paul Volcker expressed regret over the abandonment of Bretton Woods: "Nobody's in charge," Volcker said. "The Europeans couldn't live with the uncertainty and made their own currency and now that's in trouble."[3]


In 1996, economist Paul Krugman (Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, 2008) summarized the post-Nixon Shock era as follows:
The current world monetary system assigns no special role to gold; indeed, the Federal Reserve is not obliged to tie the dollar to anything. It can print as much or as little money as it deems appropriate. There are powerful advantages to such an unconstrained system. Above all, the Fed is free to respond to actual or threatened recessions by pumping in money. To take only one example, that flexibility is the reason the stock market crash of 1987—which started out every bit as frightening as that of 1929—did not cause a slump in the real economy.

While a freely floating national money has advantages, however, it also has risks. For one thing, it can create uncertainties for international traders and investors. Over the past five years, the dollar has been worth as much as 120 yen and as little as 80. The costs of this volatility are hard to measure (partly because sophisticated financial markets allow businesses to hedge much of that risk), but they must be significant. Furthermore, a system that leaves monetary managers free to do good also leaves them free to be irresponsible—and, in some countries, they have been quick to take the opportunity.[18]
Debate over the Nixon Shock has persisted to the present day, with economists and politicians across the political spectrum trying to make sense of the Nixon Shock and its impact on monetary policy in the light of the financial crisis of 2007–08.


See also

1. Fiat money
2. Triffin dilemma
3. PetroDollar

Notes

1. Jump up^ To compare over the period from 1950–2013 from the same Bureau of Statistics Unemployment rate data, in the United States unemployment rates rose to highs of 10.8% in November 1982 and 10% in October 2009; and dropped to lows of 2.5% in May, 1953; 3.9% in September, 2000; 4.4% in May, 2007; 5% in March 1989; 7.7% in July 1992; 7.9% in October, 1949; 7.4% in August 1958.

References

1. Jump up^ Andrea Wong. "The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia's 41-Year U.S. Debt Secret". Bloomberg. Retrieved 2017-03-18.
2. Jump up^ Ghizoni, Sandra. "Establishment of the Bretton Woods System". US Federal Reserve. Retrieved 17 March 2014.
3. ^ Jump up to:a b c d Lowenstein, Roger (August 4, 2011). "The Nixon Shock". Bloomberg BusinessWeek Magazine. Retrieved 26 March 2013.
4. ^ Jump up to:a b Barry Eichengreen, Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International monetary system[1]
5. Jump up^ Margaret Garritsen de Vries, The International Monetary Fund, 1966–1971 [2]
6. Jump up^ "Money Matters: An IMF Exhibit – The Importance of Global Cooperation – The Incredible Shrinking Gold Supply". International Monetary Fund. Retrieved 18 March 2014.
7. Jump up^ "M2 Money Stock | FRED | St. Louis Fed". Research.stlouisfed.org. Retrieved 2017-03-18.
8. ^ Jump up to:a b c d e f Frum, David (2000). How We Got Here: The '70s. New York, New York: Basic Books. pp. 295–98. ISBN 0-465-04195-7.
9. Jump up^ "Unemployment in the U.S. - Google Public Data Explorer". Google.com. Retrieved 2017-03-18.
10. Jump up^ McMahon, Tim (3 April 2013). "Historical Inflation Rate". p. 3.
11. Jump up^ Lehrman, Lewis. "The Nixon Shock Heard 'Round the World". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 26 March 2013.
12. Jump up^ Kollen Ghizoni, Sandra. "Nixon Ends Convertibility of U.S. Dollars to Gold and Announces Wage/Price Controls". Federal Reserve History.
13. Jump up^ Richard Nixon, "Address to the Nation Outlining a New Economic Policy: 'The Challenge of Peace.'" (August 15, 1971)
14. Jump up^ Nixon, Richard. "Address to the Nation Outlining a New Economic Policy: "The Challenge of Peace"". The American Presidency Project. Retrieved 26 March 2013.
15. Jump up^ Hetzel, Robert L. (2008), p. 84
16. Jump up^ Yergin, Daniel; Stanislaw, Joseph (2002). The Commanding Heights: The Battle between Government and the Marketplace that Is Remaking the Modern World. New York: Simon & Schuster. ISBN 0684829754. cited in Yergin, Daniel; Stanislaw, Joseph (2003). "Nixon, Price Controls, and the Gold Standard". Commanding Heights. PBS. Retrieved November 23, 2012.
17. Jump up^ Garber, Peter M. The Collapse of the Bretton Woods Fixed Exchange Rate System(PDF). in Bordo & Eichengreen 1993, pp. 461–94
18. Jump up^ Krugman, Paul. The Gold Bug Variations; 22 November 1996.

1. Bordo, Michael D.; Eichengreen, Barry, eds. (1993). A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform. Bretton Woods, Oct 3–6, 1991. Chicago: National Bureau of Economic Research & University of Chicago Press. ISBN 0226065871.

External links

1. Stemming Inflation: the Office of Emergency Preparedness and the 90-day freeze: A comprehensive history of the management of the 90-day wage-price freeze, undertaken by the Office of Emergency Preparedness and the newly established Cost of Living Council.
2. The Economy at Mid-1972: A testimony of the Council of Economic Advisers before the Joint Economic Committee on economic developments since President Nixon's New Economic Policy was adopted on August 15, 1971
3. Peter Gowan interview on the political and economic effects of ending the Bretton Woods system

 

1. This page was last modified on 18 March 2017, at 20:17.
2. Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License; additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Wikipedia is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., a non-profit organization.

http://economicprism.com/

March to Default
Posted on March 24, 2017 by MN Gordon

http://economicprism.com/wp-content/...2/Politics.jpgMay you live in interesting times, says the ancient Chinese curse. No doubt about it, we live in interesting times. Hardly a day goes by that were not aghast and astounded by a series of grotesque caricatures of the world as at devolves towards vulgarity.


Just this week, for instance, U.S. Representative Maxine Waters tweeted, Get ready for impeachment. We assume this was directed at President Trump. But what Waters meant by this was sufficiently vague. There was no guidance as to how President Trump should be getting ready.


Should he pack his bags? Should he double knot his shoelaces? Should he say a prayer?


Naturally, the specifics dont matter in the darnedest. Rather, these days, its style over substance in just about everything. This is why Waters a committed moron rises to the top of class in the lost republic of the early 21st century.


At the same time, the individual has been displaced by the almighty aggregate. Economists pencil out the unemployment rate, with certain omissions, as if it represents something meaningful. Then lunkheads like Waters repeat it as if its the gospel truth. Continue reading →



Posted in Government Debt, MN Gordon | Tagged collapse, congress, debt ceiling, default, dollar, treasuries | Leave a comment

The Long Run Economics of Debt Based Stimulus
Posted on March 17, 2017 by MN Gordon

http://economicprism.com/wp-content/...rnmentDebt.jpgSomething both unwanted and unexpected has tormented western economies in the 21st century. Gross domestic product (GDP) has moderated onward while government debt has spiked upward. Orthodox economists continue to be flummoxed by what has transpired.


Here is the United States, since the turn of the new millennium (starting January 1, 2001) real GDP has increased from roughly $10.5 trillion to $18.6 trillion, or 77 percent. Over this same time government debt has spiked nearly 250 percent from about $5.7 trillion to $19.9 trillion. Obviously, some sort of reckonings in order to bring the books back into balance.


Throughout this extended episode of economic and financial discontinuity, the governments solution to jumpstarting the economy has been to borrow money and spend it. Thus far, these efforts have succeeded in digging a massive hole that the economy will somehow have to climb out of. Were doubtful such a feat will ever be attained.

In short, additions of government debt over this time have been at a diminishing return. Continue reading →

Posted in Inflation, MN Gordon | Tagged debt ceiling, default, dollar, gold, john maynard keynes | 4 Comments

Off the Beaten Path in Mesoamerica
Posted on March 10, 2017 by MN Gordon

http://economicprism.com/wp-content/...yanPyramid.jpgTheres an endearing quality to a steadfast rooster call at the crack of dawn when overheard from a warm country farmhouse. Theres a reassuring charm that comes with the committed gallinaceous greeting of daybreak thats particularly suited to a rural ambiance. The allure of a morning cock-a-doodle-doo somehow falls flat in all other settings.

Early this morning we suffered a rude awakening from brash, dedicated rooster crowing. The calls, however, werent emanating from a barnyard henhouse. Rather, they came from rooftop chicken coops sitting atop the staggered flats of a highly urbanized Mexico City borough.
To be exact, we are presently at Calle Norte 86, in Colonia La Malinche, of the Gustavo A. Madero borough, of the Distrito Federal (Mexico City). What it is were doing here is less exact. Still, weve narrowed it down to two main intents.

First, were visiting numerous in-laws and several outlaws who live here. Second, were conducting field research on your behalf. Specifically, were investigating the chronic effects of what happens when a government spends too much borrowed money, and then attempts to lighten its debt burden by inflating its currency. Continue reading →



Posted in Inflation, MN Gordon | Tagged central banking, colonia la malinche, mesoamerica, mexico city, peso | Leave a comment

A 30 Year Mess in the Making
Posted on March 3, 2017 by MN Gordon

http://economicprism.com/wp-content/...ankenstein.jpgWe have assembled a best-in-class team of policy advisors to drive President Trumps bold plan for job creation and economic growth. Gary Cohn, Chief Economic Advisor to President Trump


Promises of Slop
The art and science of spending other peoples money is not an occupation suited to just anyone. Rather, its a skill reserved for the professional world-improver. To be successful, one must act with a zealous devotion to uplifting the down and out, no matter the cost.


Lawyers, bankers, economists, and government philosophers with fancy resumes, whom attended fancy schools. These are the devoted fellows who comprise President Trumps team of economic policy advisors. Moreover, these are the chosen associates who are charged with bringing Trumps economic vision to fruition. Are they up to the task?


Only time will tell. But, already, its quite evident that Trumps economic policy advisors have their work cut out for them. During Trumps speech to Congress on Tuesday night, he called for more jobs, more education, more military, and more affordable health insurance. Continue reading →

Posted in Government Debt, MN Gordon | Tagged collapse, david stockman, debt ceiling, deficit, steve mnuchin, william dudley | 11 Comments

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COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: NOTE: You do not need to take your time which is very valuable as time is what we all never have enough of however I share the information here as background as to what is really happening. I need to know this in order to keep up to date on REALITY.

My observations and others are all part of communications and awareness. SO just be aware and that accomplishes my goal of informing with many points of view in order to arrive at a consensus of REALITY not PERCEPTIONS which are the markets on a moment to moment basis.

For Everyone: We'll try nearly anything to lighten the emotional intensity that still lingers from yesterday's Mercury-Pluto square. Thankfully, interactive Mercury opposes exuberant Jupiter, removing reasonable doubt from our agenda. Not only are we willing to accept others for who they are, we're also willing to blindly trust our own judgment, even if it's faulty. Whatever happens, we're ready to leave past worries behind and walk boldly into the future.

Capricorn
March 24th, 2017

You're eager to pick up the pace again, even if it means letting go of an unresolved argument. It's clearly evident that your ambitions will suffer if you hold onto negativity that roots you in place, regardless of its origin. While a healthy dose of forgive-and-forget is always a good idea, be sure you don't sweep anything under the rug for the sake of laying an issue to rest. William Shakespeare wrote, "No legacy is so rich as honesty."

I share this since I read what it says everyday and most of the time it is very helpful and sets the tone for my day using my free will to do my work and live my life.


Benjaminis