Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Economic Collapse Investing

--

Dear Economic Prism Reader,

This letter was difficult to write. But I had to do it. Because I
fear the worst economic collapse of modern times is upon us.

I wish this weren't so. But I can't wish away the facts...

Grave and severe consequences must be paid for decades of financial
misconduct. The price, unfortunately, is an economic collapse
bigger and more destructive than anything in living memory.

No matter what the politicians say about American exceptionalism
and how we, as a people, will always prosper...the nation is
imploding all around.

This collapse isn't something that may happen in the future or that
could still be avoided. Rather, it's already happening -- and will
continue for many years - even decades - to come.

But this shouldn't be a secret to you. Nor should it come as a
surprise.

There are stark warning signs flashing practically everywhere you
look.

In a moment, I'll show why this offers a golden opportunity for
certain individuals...and how you can be one of them. Plus, how to
become a private Member.

Sincerely,

MN Gordon
for Economic Prism

----------------------------------------

Copyright 2015 Direct Expressions LLC. All Rights Reserved.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: I have subscribed to the services and I will share the information as matters unfold now on a daily basis.

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/21/eur...inance-london/

One Sole Aim: “Steal Away” Global Finance from London


by Don Quijones • Mar 21, 2017 • 8 Comments

Just How Low Can European Governments Go?
By Don Quijones, Spain & Mexico, editor at WOLF STREET.


City of London-based financial institutions are intensifying their search for plan-B locations as concerns continue to rise about Brexit’s potential threat to their unfettered access to EU markets and workers. With an estimated 35% of London’s wholesale market activities forecast (by Brussels-based think-tank Breugel) to migrate across the English Channel in the coming years, the race is on to displace London.

However, as the competition for Brexit spoils intensifies, relations between euro nations are showing signs of strain. Tax-haven par excellenceLuxembourg, equipped with a multi-lingual specialized workforce, is likely to be hot property in a post-Brexit world. The country’s competitive tax rates have already caught the eye of AIG, private equity giant Blackstone, and Lloyd’s of London, the world’s largest specialty insurance market, all of whom have expressed an interest in relocating part of their London operations there.

Luxembourg’s success has drawn the wrath of fellow Eurozone members like Ireland, which recently complained to the European Commission about “dangerous competition” from rival centers competing to host financial firms.

“Other cities in Europe are being very aggressive in trying to win business,” Eoghan Murphy, the minister in charge of promoting Dublin’s financial center, told Reuters. Murphy raised concerns about “creeping regulatory arbitrage,” a reference to undercutting rivals with lax rules, something about which the Irish republic knows a thing or two.

But it’s not just Europe’s tax havens that are vying to woo the world’s biggest financial institutions; also at it are some of the continent’s largest capitals.
Paris has promised to unfurl the red carpet for the City of London’s highest paid bankers by offering low tax rates and bank-friendly legislation while also seeking to grow as a clearing center. It’s in stark contrast to the combative stance France’s President Francois Hollande took against “the world of finance” – “my true opponent,” he called it – before winning national elections in 2012.



Since being in office, Hollande’s feelings have mellowed. In October last year, he even dispatched his Finance Minister Michel Sapin to New York to try to lure Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and JP Morgan Chase to a newly liberalized Paris. But Sapin seemingly failed to impress, perhaps because he needed an interpreter to get his message across in English.

English-language facility is considered a key factor in banks’ post-Brexit relocation plans. It’s essential for attracting a global workforce. To that end, the financial market regulator in Madrid is strongly urging the 35 companies listed on Spain’s benchmark index to publish company reports and other information in both Spanish and English, with a view to making it mandatory in the future.

Madrid is also keen to flaunt its abundant stock of commercial and residential real estate, something Dublin sorely lacks. Madrid currently has 250,000 square meters of office space but that could rise to as much as a million in two years’ time, when Brexit negotiations are expected to have terminated, said Ricardo Martí Fluxá, the president of Spain’s Association of Real Estate Consultants. That’s a four-fold expansion in just two years — proof, if ever needed, that Spain’s real estate industry is back on its feet.

The newly built flats and offices will need occupants. In an attempt to find them, Marí Fluxá will participate in an event at Spain’s London embassy in early April with Spanish diplomats, civil servants and senior figures representing City-based firms. As Spanish daily El Economista bluntly puts it, the meeting has one sole aim: to “steal away” firms from the City.

Madrid also hopes to bag an important financial institution, such as, say, the European Banking Authority (EBA), in the knowledge that proximity to major seats of political, judiciary and regulatory power is an essential source of competitive advantage for major financial institutions. It’s one of the main reasons why London, once the center of the world’ biggest empire, has served as one of the world’s top-three financial capitals for the last 200 years. It is also the main reason why, if the City of London does fall from grace, the biggest beneficiary is likely to be Frankfurt, which is already home to Europe’s most powerful financial institution, the ECB.

The fact that Germany also enjoys more influence over European economic policy-making than any other EU Member State would certainly be an added enticement for the world’s biggest financial institutions. Over 70% of respondents to an Ernst & Young survey said they expect Frankfurt to come out on top in the race to displace London.

But such a move is unlikely to be welcomed by many other European countries, especially those in the South where resentment over Germany’s influence over their economies is already running high. Nowhere is that more so than in Italy whose government is also trying to entice City-based firms to Milan, despite the fact that its own financial sector is hanging by a thread.

As for the City of London, the semi-autonomous square mile within London where the shady threads of global finance meet, it continues to operate as it always has. As The Guardian reported today, UK banks, including serial offender HSBC and state-owned RBS, played a major role in the global laundromat operation run by Russian mafia outfits, just as they played a frontline role in every major global financial scam and scandal of the last decade, including Libor, Forex, MF Global, the London Whale, and rampant gold and oil-price rigging.

And so, rather than seizing this opportunity to stifle the malign role that the City of London plays in the global economy, most European capitals are now determined to emulate it. By Don Quijones.

Tax planning for a post-Brexit world. Read… Brexit Drains Swamp in London, Creatures Head to Luxembourg



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8 comments for “One Sole Aim: “Steal Away” Global Finance from London”

1. Al Tinfoil
2. Mar 22, 2017 at 1:54 am
   Hilarity ensues.
   Main Street EU is stagnating, wages not growing, unemployment high, consumer spending is stagnant since consumers have maxed out their credit cards, Russia will not cooperate by playing along with starting World War 3, sanctions against Russia and Russia’s counter-sanctions have hurt EU producers, the PIIGS nations have not recovered.
3. 
   Greece needs ever-more “bail-outs” to keep German and French banks from incurring losses, Italy’s banks are gasping for air, and now Germany is demanding that Draghi be dragged into Berlin and told in no uncertain terms that Schaeuble wants more control over his money-printing and that Germany will not look kindly upon any bail-out of Italy’s failing banks.
4. 
   Theresa May has received the approval of the UK Parliament to send a billet-doux to Brussels saying (very politely) “This is notice that the UK is triggering Article 50 and is taking back its sovereignty.” Brussels is having the vapours and various EU Heads of State are making threats of dastardly consequences to be heaped upon the UK for daring to leave the EU to its dismal fate. And the polls in France say that Marine Le Pen is ahead in the election race for President, and she is making noises about leaving the EU and ditching the Euro (Quel Horreure!!!!!). At least some citizens are too busy demonstrating and rioting to pay attention.
   Fee-Fee LaGarde at the IMF is expressing reluctance to help with further bail-outs of Greece, can Italy be far behind? And the USA has elected Donald Trump as President and he is saying some very distressing things about NATO funding and was most unkind to Angles Miracles when she flew into Washington in an attempt to make nice and to get political support.
   Oh, and Target 2 imbalances are already beyond levels that can ever be paid.
   Non-Performing Loans (NPLs), fancy frauds in the form of derivatives, and money laundering are the only sectors of banking showing growth. Hence the rush to attract bank head offices, with offers of even lower penalties for money laundering and fraud, lower income taxes for corporations and bank employees, free travel vouchers to Majorca, cheap wine, subsidized lap-dances for the men and free gigolos for the ladies.
   At least the nice Mr. J.C. Juncker has experience in setting up tax avoidance schemes in Luxembourg, and with his current elevated status in the EU (rumour has it that he is high by noon each day), Luxembourg looks like a good candidate for my next banking headquarters.
   Reply
   1. cdr
      Mar 22, 2017 at 8:54 am
      There’s only one solution … we need another financial crisis and we need one soon. Creating massive financial fraud on a national and continental level requires a big crisis that requires a big plan to fix all the big problems.
      England did it’s part in the last one and the Eurozone contributed mightily. Price fixing … including the mega-innovation of the past few centuries – negative rates – from this cycle has run its course. A new crisis is needed to bring in new players who will play similar games but dressed up differently and in new places.
      Will we see a plunge in indices caused by a lack of bids and magnified by margin calls? Will one or two sacrificial lamb major houses of finance go kablooie afterward for emphasis and as a call to action for important people to do something or anything to fix it … just as long as a blank check signed by the largest nations is included with the fix? Will the lack of liquidity cause working capital loans to go away and create job layoffs? Will the media scream bloody murder every day until government does something to fix it?
      Of course not. That’s just crazy talk.
      Reply
      1. Petunia
         Mar 22, 2017 at 10:47 am
         Are you nuts? The last crisis didn’t help fix any of the problems. Banks are bigger, the derivative positions are bigger, the bubbles are bigger, and the country is more divided than ever. Plus there is nothing left at the bottom to steal.
         

STOP reading Fake News Lol
As I predict GU

Thanks Rocky007

HEADS UP !!!

EUR/USD Alert: Yellen Speech

Dear Benjamin,
The market will be tuning in for Fed Chair Janet Yellens speech this Thursday, March 23 at 12:45 GMT. Yellen is due to speak at a community development conference and investors will be scrutinizing her every word in order to discover her projections on the future movement of the dollar.

Yellen has more influence over the U.S. dollar's value than any other figure, since her speeches are often used to drop hints regarding the Federal Reserves future monetary policy. According to CNBC, Yellens comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend for the U.S. dollar.

It should be noted that Fed speeches create increased volatility especially for pairs that involve the U.S. dollar against major rivals and a great number of trading opportunities are to be expected!

Your Capital is at Risk

https://mishtalk.com/2017/03/22/ital...or/#more-44844


Italy Falls Out of Love With Euro: Beppe Grillo on the Rise Recent polls for

22WednesdayMar 2017

Posted by Mish | March 22, 2017 9:35:04 | Economics

≈ 13 Comments

Recent polls for Italian politicians supporting the eurozone and EU have collapsed.

Pro-Europe polls are highly likely to get worse as a further splintering of Matteo Renzi’s PD party takes place.

It is not out of question for Beppe Grillo’s eurosceptic Five Star Movement (M5S) party to achieve an absolute majority in the next election. However, please note that 40% is the threshold for a “majority”.

The Financial Times reports Italy is Falling Out of Love with Europe.

Foreigners often underestimate Italy’s ability to sidestep calamity. That said, the stakes are higher now than in 1992. Solutions may prove harder to find. The reason lies in the radically different EU and Mediterranean contexts in which Italy finds itself.

Some of contemporary Italy’s challenges appear similar to those of the early 1990s. The party system is once again in fragments. The ruling centre-left Democratic party (PD) split last month. The right is divided. The most popular opposition party is the anti-establishment Five Star Movement. Since November 2011 four prime ministers have taken office not because voters chose them, but because of a financial emergency, factional squabble, party coup and failed constitutional reform.


Matteo Renzi, the former premier and PD leader, suffered a blow this month when it emerged that Tiziano Renzi, his father, and Luca Lotti, a close political ally, had been caught up in a judicial probe into suspected graft in public procurement.


The most disturbing comparison between 1992 and the present day concerns the Italian economy, which is projected this year to be the slowest-growing in the eurozone.

Public debt is more than 132 percent of gross domestic product. Unemployment is almost 12 per cent; the youth jobless rate is over 37 percent.

As a consequence, ever more Italian politicians question the merits of eurozone membership. So do Italian voters. In a Eurobarometer poll published in December, 47 percent called the euro “a bad thing” for their country and only 41 percent “a good thing”. This is the big difference with 25 years ago.

As long as the moderate left or right governs Italy, it may be possible to contain this disenchantment with the EU and the euro. But the PD’s fissures are the latest sign that the party system is cracking under the strain. The Five Star Movement is waiting in the wings.

PD Suicide

Via email, Eurointelligence comments on the costs of Matteo Renzi’s PD’s suicide mission.

We have been saying it for a while – political parties that preoccupy themselves with their internal divisions are electorally doomed. It is happening to the Labour Party in the UK, and it is now happening to the Partito Democratico. This tendency is now being picked up by the polls, which show the Five Star Movement ahead of the PD by five points. We are now at the point where it becomes increasingly improbable for the PD to regain power after the next elections. They cannot do it on their own, and they do not have natural coalition partners to help them. Even a hypothetical alliance between Matteo Renzi and Silvio Berlusconi would not, on its own, meet the 40% majority threshold for a coalition, and there is no way the two parties would enter the election with a pre-arranged electoral pact in the first place.

The Five Star Movement is now only 6 points away from an absolute majority that would allow it to govern on its own – assuming that the present electoral law for the chamber of deputies forms the basis of a new electoral system for the Senate. If one adds up all the non-extremist parties (and let’s count Berlusconi’s Forza d’Italia among them for the sake of argument), one would get to just over 40% – with the PD, Forza Italia, and the New Centre Right of foreign minister Angelino Alfano which only gets 2.8%.


Worse for the PD, its support will fall even more after the split of the party becomes a reality – which it will before the elections. The poll puts the hypothetical support for PD dissidents at 7.1%, which would reduce the PD’s overall support to under 20%. The new left, together with the old left, would have the support of close to 10%. All this shows that there can be only two election outcomes: either a fragmented parliament, with unstable and shifting coalitions, or a majority reign of the Five Star Movement. The Five Star Movement promises not to enter coalitions, and it will be interesting to see whether the party maintains that position after the elections.

On the issue that interests us the most – Italy’s future in the EU, and in the eurozone in particular – the picture is even more grim. The only two parties that unconditionally support Italy’s membership of the eurozone are the PD and the New Centre Right. Forza Italia is toying with the idea of a parallel currency, while the Five Star Movement has pledged a consultative referendum on Italy’s future in the euro. While this referendum can legally not end Italy’s membership in the eurozone, it would send a devastating signal to the outside world.


The Five Star Movement has its own share of scandals – for example involving the new municipal government in Rome, and the party is in an internal state of war over the candidate for the mayoral elections in Genoa. But none of that seems to stick.

Our conclusion is that the Five Star Movement is rational to avoid alliances with other parties, as this approach is paying off electorally. With that strategy in place, they will either gain a sufficient majority (over 40%) at the next elections, or in the one after that.

Italian Polls

Eurointelligence referenced a specific Italian poll that has been since superseded.

However, support for PD is clearly on the wane. Let’s take a look at all of the recent Italian Election Polls.

https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=167

In only one poll since March 9 (clearly an outlier) did Matteo Renzi’s PD party come in first place. Moreover, PD has not yet split for polling purposes but it will.

I fail to see how M5s was “6 points away from an absolute majority that would allow it to govern on its own” as Eurointelligence states, but a coalition of eurosceptic parties totaling over 50% is easily at hand.

Support for M5S (Five Star Movement) + Fi (Forza Italia) + LN (Lega Nord), all eurosceptic parties, totals 54.5%in the most recent poll.
Forza Italia is former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s party.

On March 9, Bloomberg reported Enter Berlusconi: A Man, a Ban, and His Plan to Restore the Lira.
If elections were held today, eurosceptic parties would easily hit not only a 40% threshold but a 50% threshold as well.

Whether eurosceptic could agree to form a coalition is another matter, but I suspect they would, especially if the alternative was a minority government led by PD.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock


Comments From Benjaminis: More Background information on Political Events Ahead. EUR/USD is holding around 108.00

https://mishtalk.com/2017/03/22/exis...em/#more-44853



Existing Home Sales in February Wipe Out January Gains, Condo Sales Plunge: Is Low Inventory the Problem?


22WednesdayMar 2017

Posted by Mish | March 22, 2017 1:30:05 | Economics


The strong start to 2017 existing home sales faltered already. February wiped out the 3.3% gains in January, and then some. Econoday blames “inventory” as does Mortgage News Daily.

Existing home sales are on the soft side of expectations, down 3.7 percent in February to a 5.480 million annualized rate and below the Econoday consensus for 5.555 million. Details are mostly weak including a 3.0 percent decline in single-family sales to a 4.890 million rate and a sharp 9.2 percent drop for condos to a 590,000 rate. Year-on-year, single-family sales are up 5.8 percent with condos fading and barely over zero at 1.7 percent.

But total year-on-year sales are up a solid 5.4 percent and still below pricing where the median, at $228,400, is up a healthy 7.7 percent. Supply has been very thin but is improving, with 1.750 million resales on the market for a 4.2 percent gain from January. And relative to sales, supply is at 3.8 months vs January’s 3.5 months. Days on the market are very short, at 45 vs 59 days a year ago.

Existing Sales Stifled By Inventory Constraints
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=390
Mortgage News Daily reports Existing Sales Stifled By Inventory Constraints.

Existing home sales burst out of the box in January to start the year out with a 3.2 percent increase over the previous month. Those gains, however, were wiped out in February. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Wednesday that sales of previously owned homes, including single-family structures, townhomes, condos, and co-ops, retreated by 3.7 percent, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million units. NAR did not revise their original estimate of a 5.69-million-unit pace in January. Even with the decline, sales still maintained their edge over February 2016 by 5.4 percent.

Sales of single-family homes were down by 3.0 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million from 5.04 million in January, remaining 5.8 percent above the 4.62 million sales pace in February 2016. Condo and co-op apartment sales plunged month-over-month by 9.2 percent to 590,000 units from 650,000 but remained 1.7 percent higher than sales in February 2016.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said buyers in most of the country were “stifled” by the lack of properties for sale and weakening affordability. He said, “Realtors are reporting stronger foot traffic from a year ago, but low supply in the affordable price range continues to be the pest that’s pushing up price growth and pressuring the budgets of prospective buyers. Newly listed properties are being snatched up quickly so far this year and leaving behind minimal choices for buyers trying to reach the market.”

Inventory
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=384
Total housing inventory increased slightly in February, up 4.2 percent to 1.75 million homes compared to 1.69 million at the end of January, but it is still 6.4 percent lower than in February 2016 and has fallen year-over-year for 21 straight months. Unsold inventory is estimated at a 3.8-month supply at the current sales pace compared to a 3.5-month supply in January.

First-time buyers continue to represent a lower share of sales than their historic levels. Those buyers accounted for 32 percent of sales in February compared to 33 percent in January. First-timers averaged a 35 percent share through most of 2016 and have had a near-40 percent share historically.

Individual investors purchased 17 percent of homes in February, two percentage points more than in January but down from 18 percent a year earlier. Seventy-one percent of investors paid cash for their purchases, tying the most recent high in April 2015. Overall, all cash was employed in 27 percent of all transactions during the month.

Six percent of February sales were foreclosures and 1 percent were short sales. The percentage of distressed sales has remained at 7 percent for three straight months and is down from 10 percent a year earlier. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 18 percent below market value in February (14 percent in January), while short sales were discounted 17 percent (10 percent in January).

Inventory Not the Problem
Inventory is not the problem. Rather, inventory is one of many symptoms of the problem.

1. To a great extent, the Fed re-blew the housing bubble. Banks were bailed out, but not homeowners.
2. Prices are up far more than wages. Homes are not affordable, especially for first-time buyers.
3. Some of those who may want to move elsewhere are priced out because they cannot get what they need from their existing house, so they pull their listing.
4. Those who bought at the market peak in 2005-2006 are still underwater in many places. Such homeowners remain trapped. They cannot sell without bringing money to the table.

The Fed is now hiking, making homes even less affordable.

Lack of inventory represents a price mismatch. New buyers cannot afford to buy, and sellers cannot get the price they want or need. As a result, listings dry up.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Quoting BenjaminIs

Disliked

{quote} Dear Rocky007 Just for the record. What I posted was my corporate business model and I am in the process of going to the next stage first by bringing the website live and then over the course of the next few months allocate $250,000 US Dollars to $300,000 US Dollars for up to 6 Qualified Forex Traders to manage under LPOA initial funds of $50,000 US Dollars. I have already discussed that with a number of Forex traders both experienced in the industry and of course some whom I have already taught. I would use my business model of demonstrating...

Ignored

I am a big believer of our business model. I think it is key to practice on a demo account. One of the most challenging aspects of trading is to learn to manage your emotions when trading. As Teek also mentioned you mind set is important, your beliefs and there is no place for fear in trading. Demo trading is also a great way to test out the way Benjamin teach, by following the money flow, using his trading plans & risk management on a $50 000 demo account. By demo trading you can also learn and practise good habits, I have a few bad habits that I am working on and in the process you will also become more confident in yourself as a trader.

I have not traded much the past 4 weeks, I am working on my patience and not to over trade or to take a trade just for the sake of trading. I treat my demo as a real account, I am not where I want to be, but it is a process. I believe I am at the right place to learn and with discipline and determination I will get there.

Then I am also very excited for the launch of the corporate website and where corporate funds will be allocated to qualified forex traders to manage under LPOA.

Thanks for your thoughts on our business model and I especially encourage Teek and Rockey007 to consider this option. It is very exciting for me personally because as I move higher into the Forex Industry I am finding that very professional Forex traders while they surely understand Risk On and Risk Off and Money Flow along with the POWERFUL CORRELATION that it offers do not seem to have used this method in their own Forex Trading which in some ways really surprises me yet it also excites me because the sky is the limit.

To add to my views here is today's review from one of the most sophisticated Forex trading groups.

RISK OFF WRECKS THE MARKETS


March 22nd, 2017

Market Drivers March 22, 2017

USDJPY nears 111.00
Commdollars sell off sharply
Nikkei -2.13% Dax -0.78%
Oil $50/bbl
Gold $1247/oz.

Europe and Asia:

EUR EU Current Account 24B vs. 31B eyed

North America:

USD Existing Home Sales 10:00

Risk off flows intensified in Asian and early European trade today with USD/JPY dropping towards the 111.00 figure as yields compressed further and investors remained jittery.

Commodity dollars were hardest hit with Aussie falling below the 7650 and kiwi drifting towards the .7000 figure. With no major economic releases on the docket today, equity flows are sure to dominate trade for the rest of the day and if stocks continue to sell off 111.00 in USDJPY and .7000 in NZDUSD are sure to be breached as sentiment turns decidedly sour.

It’s difficult to pinpoint the key catalyst for the selloff, but the general consensus is that the testimony of FBI Director James Comey raised fears that the Trump Administration, which is under the investigation for alleged ties to the Russian government may be facing serious political risk. At very least, Mr. Trump’s economic agenda appears to have been sidetracked as the focus on investigation creates the risk of impeachment.

At this point, it is far too premature to speculate as to the full extent of culpability of Mr. Trump and his associates, and Mr. Comey’s testimony may have simply served as a welcome excuse for profit taking in equities which have enjoyed and extended run. Still, the risk off selloff is very likely to be much more than just a one-day affair, especially if damning accusations continue to leak from the investigation.

We have noted in the past that despite relatively sound growth, US consumer sentiment and spending have remained tepid. Indeed, most of the increase in consumer sentiment has been primarily due to the rally in equities. Given that dynamic, it’s quite possible to see a sharp U-turn in sentiment figures if the selloff in equities accelerates which in turn could temper spending and growth and force the Fed to abandon its normalization schedule. USDJPY therefore, remains vulnerable to more downside pressure as do all the high beta currencies which are caught in this risk off selloff.

Here is what they say about their EDGE...

For better part of the past fifty years foreign exchange has been out of reach of most individual investors. Although most of the industrialized world's currencies have been free floating since the middle 1970's, the foreign exchange market was a decidedly old boys club accessible only to the most sophisticated hedge funds, the largest investment banks and the biggest corporations in the world.

That inner sanctum began to be challenged in earnest at the end of the 20th century with the advent of electronic trading and the introduction of the euro. The EUR/USD quickly became the single most tradable financial instrument in the world, exceeding volumes of more than 1 Trillion in turnover per day. Although the currency pair is clearly not without its flaws it represents the two largest economies in the world and therefore is extraordinarily important to capital markets.

Birth of Electronic FX Trading

As all capital markets became electronic the foreign exchange market joined the trend and opened itself up to individual investors for the very first time. The investor response across the world has been nothing short of phenomenal. Individual currency trading quickly went from a novelty to a significant slice of the overall market. Presently individual investors comprise more than 20% of the daily flows with estimates of turnover exceeding $200 Billion per day.

Investors are attracted to currencies as an asset class for a variety of reasons. Currencies are truly the only round the clock financial market that exists today. Spot FX is fully fungible and tradable across the world from 5 PM New York time Sunday to 5 PM New York Time Friday.

Comments From Benjaminis: The way that I read their excellent material Money Flow Trading Method does not seem to be part of their vocabulary.

What say you my Forex Traders ?

P.S. Kathy just came out with this report which is on my topic of Money Flow.

Asia

USD/JPY Bounces Off 111, Euro Tests 1.08


March 22nd, 2017

USD/JPY Bounces Off 111, Euro Tests 1.08
Daily FX Market Roundup 03.22.17

In the last 48 hours, risk aversion has swept through the foreign exchange market sending all of the major currencies lower. USD/JPY was hit the hardest with the currency pair extending its losses below 111. Although it traded as low as 110.73, it ended the NY trading session above the round number. USD/JPY still remains under pressure and if 111.00 is taken out in a more meaningful way, the next major support level will be 110.

The big question is, will USD/JPY get there and if so, is it a buy or sell? Considering that there were no clear explanation for yesterday’s breakdown in USD/JPY and sell-off in global equities, it is hard to justify the move on a fundamental basis.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Kathy !!! What about my Money Flow Trading Method ?

There was some talk that Trump’s Administration could be in political trouble but we don’t think much will be made out of that. Other investors were concerned about Fed President Kashkari’s dovish comments but his cautious views should not be a surprise considering that he was the only U.S. policymaker that voted to keep rates steady last week.

We still believe that the comments from Yellen, Dudley and the other Fed Presidents due later this week will be more positive than negative for the dollar. They will most likely offer a less dovish interpretation of last week’s FOMC rate decision by reminding everyone that U.S. rates are still headed higher. If that is case, USD/JPY is a buy at 110. If they do not focus on the future direction of interest rates, then USD/JPY could break 110 and we would not be buyers until the market redirects its attention to Fed tightening. This morning’s U.S. existing home sales report showed falling -3.7% which effectively erases the past month’s gain.

Comments From Benjaminis: TONGUE IN CHEEK ... KINDA ... Would someone please invite Kathy to please come by and read our thread.


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Dollar Index Nears Crucial Line In The Sand
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Mar 22, 2017 3:35 PM

The Bloomberg Dollar Index has given up almost three-quarters of the post-Trump-election gains - having tumbled for 5 days straight. However, with seemingly everything on the line in Thursday's Obamacare repeal vote, the USD index is within 1% of two crucial technical levels.


1215-1217 is a critical level of support for the Bloomberg Dollar Index...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...322_USD1_0.jpg
The intersection of the 200-day moving average and a major fibonacci retracement level.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0322_USD_0.jpg


As a reminder, speculators are still extremely net long Dollars...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._USD11_1_0.jpg
Is another big long-squeeze coming?

"The way that I read their excellent material Money Flow Trading Method does not seem to be part of their vocabulary. "

It is not part of their vocabulary but I can assure you it is part of their trading.


In my trading I concider four things as my absolute edge:

1) being able to see the moneyflow and current correlations between currencies. This includes being able to spot "strange" behaviour like spontanous "negative" correlations where there should be a positive one, and the other way around. Where does huge sums of money flow to and from where. When did it start, is it a transition, what is the background on this, how long will it last. Being able to spot this and react to it enables me to "ride with the big dogs", even as a shortterm scalper.

2) being fearless and trade without any emotion (well, as little as possible, we are humans after all), being "cold blooded" when trading. This enables me to pull the trigger when I need to (when I spot correlating moneyflow on a large enough volume to create a decent move on multiple markets). This is when I don't hesitate and fire multiple trades, sometimes as much as 8 to 12 Scalp trades simultanously, often without even looking at the charts. I take the entry on the main trade and fire the correlations "blind" (if I made sure they do correlate the way they should. Preparation is key).
I am never afraid to "pull the trigger".
In, Out, Green. It takes practice, and you gotta have some heart to do it and you need to understand moneyflow and correlation

3) healthy Risk Management
When I pull off something like 2) and I win, I win a decent amount of Pips in a short time.
When I lose I could potentialy lose a decent amount of Pips.
This means two things:

- I must always apply a healthy Risk Management. Protecting my assets is goal Nr. 1. My assets (Money and Time) are my tools. I can not work without my tools, so I must protect them.
In times of losing, I reduce risk, trade less size or stop trading at all. I never try to "take it back". Being smart, I also refuse to give away a single pip when I have reached and overshot my daily/weekly goals. When I start to prepare 6:00 in the morning, I pull the trigger 8:00 and win, I am most likely done before London open. Now it's 8:30 in the morning and I am sitting at 70 green pips on full size? Why in the world would I add risk now and give it away? If don't stop trading at all and be done for the day, I trade small, relaxed...
That's good risk management for me. Protect my assets.

- I never wait to close the losers. I don't wait for my stops to be taken. If it doesn't pull my way, I close out. Limit the losses. I rather close "shaky" positions too soon than to see it pull against me and I can't stand it when the expected "pull" that I trade doesn't come. If it doesn't move at all, I close it. I don't wait too long. This is not good for my "hit rate", which I don't care for, but very good for my Risk Management. If you place a stop and are willing to exit at that point and you see it pull the wrong way, why wait? Limit your losses. That's one of the hardest things to learn in trading. Your hitrate doesn't matter if you are broke and busto. Close the losers, don't wait because "I hope it will turn around". That's nonsense, I am not interested in losing, I am here to make Pips.
it doesn't matter how many trades you win or lose. It only matters how many Pips you make when you win and how many Pips you lose when you lose, and this alone will make you a "successful" trader. This is the only stat and number that really counts.


So, you see I listed Moneyflow / Correlation as my Nr. 1 Edge. In my opinion there is no way around it in currencie trading, especialy with todays markets. The times of long trending markets are gone. It is all either very messy or not volatile enough lately. Being able to trade correlations and jump on the moneyflow train is absolute key. We just don't often mention it, it is part of our "secret" and we don't like to give away our "edge" (which for retail traders is nonsense because you never really compete against anyone but yourself)
Go with the flow. See it, trade it, love it


oh, and: "The big question is, will USD/JPY get there and if so, is it a buy or sell? Considering that there were no clear explanation for yesterday’s breakdown in USD/JPY and sell-off in global equities, it is hard to justify the move on a fundamental basis."

Seriously? The anser is on the charts. Very clear to see.

cheers, Teek

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ng-transition/

It’s Confirmed – Trump was Spied On During Transition

Blog/Politics

Posted Mar 22, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Video Player
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Trump-Spied-on.mp4
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This is a press conference in its entirety from the committee investigating everything. Yes, there was no “wiretap” of Trump Tower. As I reported previously, that is old-school. So while the New York Times and the Washington Post are desperate to cover everything up and focus only on that single word to claim Trump has no proof, behind the curtain everyone knows that Trump was spied on because that’s just what is going on. The same as the NSA has all the emails Hillary erased and every phone call. Nobody in Congress dared to subpoena the NSA for that info because it would set a precedent that would one day come back and bite them.

What is going on is the committee “invited” people with information within government to come clean and present info directly to the committee. To the shock of everyone, that is happening. So people do not want to do down with the ship and they will give up others who have been leaking info to the New York Times and the Washington Post, which have been the two mouthpieces for the Democrats and the anti-Trump movement. This will get much more interesting as we move forward.

Keep in mind that more confidence in government is undermined, including the mainstream media, the more likely we will see the bonds collapse of all governments and private sectors rise. Politics is the driving force in this cycle. The New York Times was founded September 18th, 1851. Cyclically, the New York Time will be in trouble economically starting in 2023. Its abandonment of reporting the news and trying to create news, as is the Washington Post and CNN, ABC and NBC, will result in a serious economic decline for mainstream media. CNN may be entering a serious crisis reflection point. It was founded in 1980 and 2017/2018 is a serious turning point for CNN. Best to avoid shares in these entities going forward.

Categories: Politics

« Why Obamacare is the Biggest Fraud in American History & Was Designed to Be Exactly That!

Thanks Teek , for your very clear and enjoyable reply. It is very interesting what you said about EDGE. WE both share very similar thoughts about trading. This morning I put on one position of 100 units of SPX500 also without looking at the charts at 2349.32. I also shorted one position of US30 at 20,661.50.

I put both positions on at 11:20 AM this morning Eastern Standard Time , 10 minutes before Europe closed.

I closed at 2342.30 the position and even though I had entered Limit Out with Profits of $1100 US Dollars at 13:07 PM , I closed one position for a profit of $702 US Dollars. My position of US 30 I closed at 20,609.00 for a profit of $525 US Dollars for Net Profit today on two trades of $1227 US Dollars.

I wonder if I tell the part of the World that does not know "THE EDGE" if eventually my EDGE will no longer be an edge ? I will not worry either way.

I WILL DO THE SCREEN SHOT (PROMISE) KeepCalmfx ...


125709378US30100 3/22/17 11:20 AM 20,661.50 Mktd 102811063001


3/22/17 1:07 PM 20,609.00 525.000.000.000.000.00 525.00 Cd102811063001


125709398SPX500100 3/22/17 11:20 AM 2,349.32 Mktd102811063001

3/22/17 1:07 PM 2,342.30 702.000.000.000.000.00 702.00 Cd102811063001

3/22/17 1:07 PMPnLProfit/Loss of Trade02800843125709398702.0055,051.66
3/22/17 1:07 PMPnLProfit/Loss of Trade02800843125709378525.0055,576.66
3/22/17 5:27 PMRolloverRollover Fee02800843125673942-8.0055,568.66
3/22/17 5:27 PMRolloverRollover Fee02800843125673870-8.0055,560.66
3/22/17 5:27 PMRolloverRollover Fee02800843125702148-5.0055,555.66
3/22/17 5:27 PMRolloverRollover Fee02800843125702125-5.0055,550.66
Total:55,550.66




You can never lose taking profits and taking the $1227 US Dollars on two quick Forex trades was great. By the end of the day the markets reversed and if I did not close my two positions my profits would have gone away. "A Bird In Hand Is Worth More Than Two In The Bush"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

"Trump Trade 1.0" Is Over - Why It Will Take Some Time To Ship Version 2.0
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Mar 22, 2017 3:20 PM



Authored by Nicholas Colas via ConvergEx,
The stock market may not be a casino, but 21 is the game of the day. That’s how many House votes the Republicans can afford to lose from their own party and still pass the American Health Care Act on Thursday. The cause of today’s sell-off is simple: there seems to be more like 25 “Nay” votes coming from the right wing of the GOP. For what it’s worth, our two best sources in DC both think the bill will pass on Thursday and today’s Beltway theatrics were just par for the course.

Regardless, equity investors know they aren’t positioned for even a faux-drama in DC. High valuations and (until today) low volume/low volatility melt up markets are always susceptible to shocks.

Our view is that today marked the official end of “Trump Trade 1.0” and it will take some time to ship Version 2.0. Washington, after all, does not work in New York minutes.

I’m not much of a gambler, but I know that “21” typically has better odds than most games at a casino. Providing you follow a few basic rules, you can get pretty close to 50/50 odds. Take a card when you have 16 or less… That kind of thing. And if you can find a casino where blackjack pays 2:1 instead of 3:2, all the better. (Here is a link with many of the common permutations of house rules and their effect on your odds, if you are curious)



In “21” drawing cards that sum to more than that number is a “Bust”, and so it is with the pending American Health Care Act currently slated for a House vote on Thursday. Republicans cannot afford to lose more than that number of votes, assuming Democrats vote en masse against the legislation. News reports today had 25 GOP members of Congress set to vote against the ACHA. DC newspaper The Hill has their own running tally (20 solidly against, 7 leaning against) here.


We asked our two best DC sources what they thought about Thursday’s vote. Both said they thought the Republicans would pull together enough votes to pass it. That’s (sort of) the good news. The bad news is they feel that the House bill has little chance in the Senate. And whatever the Senate would find palatable has little chance back in the House. The old Mark Twain quote comes to mind: “People who love sausage and respect the law should never watch either one being made.”

So if the legislative process is actually running to historical norms, why did equity markets respond so poorly today? I can think of three reasons:
1. US equities have been priced for perfection since the start of 2017 and today was a rude reminder that the legislative process is imperfect on even its best days. It’s not just a current year multiple of 17.9x that makes valuations feel toppy. It’s also that analysts have been cutting numbers of late. Earnings momentum is the bedrock of most equity rallies, but the drip-drip-drip of negative revisions has eroded that foundation.

2. The low volume/low volatility melt-up for US stocks had lulled traders and investors into a temporary complacency, now shattered. Immediately after the US Election last November, many market observers thought we would see the dawn of a new era of market volatility based on the unpredictability of the new President. After some sector rotation that accompanied the initial rally, however, the “Trump Trade” began to resemble the sleepwalking “Fed Put” market of much of the last 8 years. All that came to an end today with the realization that the Trump economic agenda will need to pass through Washington’s political process and (worse yet) we will all have to watch and worry as it does so.

3. All that complacency also translated into a lack of interest in options-based risk management. The most common measure here is the CBOE VIX Index, which as of yesterday was 11.3 (more than 1 standard deviation away from its long run average of 20). You can also see this phenomenon in the “VIX of” options chains for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 and various other asset classes like small cap stocks, corporate bonds and precious metals. We’ve attached a chart that shows this. Of the 20 sectors/asset types we track, 17 saw declines in their “VIX” measures over the last 30 days.


Looking at the “VIX of” the 11 S&P 500 sectors in particular shines a bright light on this problem. As of yesterday, every sector save 2 (Telecomm and Energy, the only groups down on the year) had VIX readings either on their 52 weeks lows or within 1 point of those lows. Market complacency had managed to soak through not just the major indices (like the S&P 500) but all the way through to risk pricing in almost every industry sector. Given that sector correlations have declined notably since last November, that is remarkable.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...22_colas_0.jpg
It is always hard to call major turns in the market, but we’re willing to ring the bell today on “Trump Trade 1.0”. This move started the night of the election and carried us all the way through yesterday. It’s had a good run, anchored on the belief that tax reform, infrastructure and deregulation would lift most boats higher. In addition, the accompanying steepening of the yield curve would both send money flows out of bonds and into stocks and finally buoy the long beleaguered Financials sector.


After all it’s not like today’s sell-off was actually “Caused” by the angst over the ACHA vote. We’ve known for weeks it would not be a slam dunk. Rather, the volatility today is the result of a rethink about the timing of any eventual legislation on corporate/personal taxes, regulation and infrastructure investment. Health care reform will take time. Then tax reform will take some more time. Then everything else.


Do not fear: there will be a “Trump Trade 2.0” at some point this year. Either valuations will retreat to the point where they reflect the reality of a legislatively-driven set of catalysts, or Washington will (in its own time) deliver on a pro-growth agenda as the market treads water.
Just remember: Washington doesn’t work in New York minutes.

Gold Watch out 1234.00

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29





by Tyler Durden
Mar 22, 2017 8:15 PM






Authored by Stephen McBride via GarretGalland.coBefore yesterday, the S&P 500 and DJIA hadnt seen a 1% drop since October 2016. For some perspective, Hillary Clinton was the presidential frontrunner the last time markets fell 1%. This was the longest such streak for both indices in over 20 yearIn February, the DJIA recorded its longest winning streak since 1987. It closed 2,000 points above its 200-day moving average for the first time everAlso in February, the combined market cap of the S&P 500 topped $20 trillion for the first time. Its market cap has increased by over $2 trillion since the electionstaggering.

Like we discussed last month, with a proliferation of record highs in 2017, where are market valuations at today? The five charts below paint the whole picture best.
Chart #1: S&P 500 Price/EBITDA




Today, the S&P 500 price/EBITDA sits at an all-time high.

http://ggc-gg-images.s3.amazonaws.co...17_GGR_Art.jpg
Source: The Credit Strategist
This tells us that the current rally can be largely attributed to valuation expansion. Indeed, around 60% of the gains since 2009 have come from this source. At the same time, earnings growth has been anemic.
From 20122016, annual earnings growth was just 0.49%. In comparison, from 19951999, growth was 9.5%.
Chart #2: CAPE

Another commonly used metric is the cyclically adjusted, price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE).
Currently, the CAPE is 73% above its mean. Besides its reading before the 1929 crash and dot-com bubble, the ratio is at its highest level on record.
http://ggc-gg-images.s3.amazonaws.co...17_GGR_Art.jpg
Source: Robert Shiller
Chart #3: Total Market Cap/GDP

Warren Buffets favorite valuation metric, total market cap relative to GDP, currently stands at 130%a 129% increase since 2009. This rise also brings the ratio to its highest level since 2000.
http://ggc-gg-images.s3.amazonaws.co...17_GGR_Art.jpg
Source: Gurufocus
Chart #4: NYSE Margin Debt

High levels of margin debt lead to increased volatility as more people are forced to sell due to margin calls.
In January, margin debt hit another record high. The two previous tops were one month and three months prior to the respective 2000 and 2008 market crashes.
http://ggc-gg-images.s3.amazonaws.co...17_GGR_Art.jpg
Source: Advisor Perspectives
Chart #5: The Complacency Index

Margin debt making another all-time high signals the cycle is in late stages when complacency takes hold. And surprise, surprise, that too is at all-time highs.
http://ggc-gg-images.s3.amazonaws.co...17_GGR_Art.jpg
Source: Bloomberg
In the past, when the complacency index was high, stocks invariably saw big corrections shortly thereafter.
By most metrics, equities look pricey. But even with the bull market now eight years old, sentiment continues to be extremely bullish. So, what are the takeaways from these lofty valuations?
Lower Future Returns and Higher Downside Risk

To quote Warren Buffet, The price you pay determines your rate of return. In a nutshell, this sums up what todays valuations mean for investors.
High valuation metrics arent indicative of an imminent market crash. What they do tell us is that we must lower our expectations of future returns.
While the correlation isnt perfect, this chart shows a higher CAPE ratio usually means lower future returns.
http://ggc-gg-images.s3.amazonaws.co...17_GGR_Art.jpg
Source: Bloomberg
With the stunning run-up in markets since 2009, investors cant reasonably expect returns to continue at double the long-term average. At a time of exuberance, its important to remember markets are cyclical.
The other takeaway from todays valuations is that when the drawdown does come, it will be severe. As this chart from Star Capital shows, downside risk tends to increase as market valuations become excessive.
http://ggc-gg-images.s3.amazonaws.co...17_GGR_Art.jpg
Source: Star Capital
Given current market levels, investors may want to lower their future expected returns. Its important to note that record highs are records for a reason. Its where previous limits were reached.
With that in mind, how should investors approach the markets today?
Adopt a Contrarian Investment Strategy

While markets continue to make new highs, investors should proceed with care. This is the second-longest period in stock market history without a 10% correction. As detailed above, the higher valuations go, the worst the subsequent drop.
The average decline during the last five bear markets was 33% - the next one could be much worse. Of course, markets could rise another 50% from here before falling. But given their run-up since 2009is it a risk worth taking?
* * *
Learn More About the Contrarian Value Strategy in Our Free Report, 3 Proven Strategies to Invest in Uncertain Markets Like These - In this report, we detail three strategies investors can use to find value in todays generally overpriced markets. Click here to learn more about this proven investment system that will change how you invest forever.

http://www.garretgalland.com/passing...an-do-about-it

The Uncivil War and What You Can Do About It


By David Galland | The Passing Parade | March 10, 2017

Dear Parader,

Not to be overly dramatic, but a civil war has begun in America. Everyone knows it to be true, but no one knows what comes next.


The conflict of visions between freethinkers and the socialists who believe government should hammer humanity into model citizens has reached what divorce lawyers call “irreconcilable differences.”

Evidence of the hostilities is abundant. Starting with the daily exchange of conflicting, angry “news” stories pandering only to viewers on one side of the great divide. These stories offer no conciliatory or constructive narratives, just animus, angst, and cold anger.


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The Passing Parade
(No obligation. Unsubscribe at any time).

As with the first US Civil War, wide schisms have formed that now separate families and friends. Schisms that will take years to heal, and maybe never.
The odds of this turning into an armed conflict, other than sporadic violent incidents, may seem remote. Yet the vast majority of people living in Sarajevo didn’t see that civil war coming either.


Violent or not, the turmoil is just beginning, with the progressives and their allies in the media determined to end the Trump administration by any means possible.


Lined up against them are the forces aligned with Trump, staunchly determined to hold the hard-won political ground.

There can be no compromise, because Trump is the antithesis of everything his opponents believe in their heart of hearts to be sacrosanct in the Brave New World they have worked so long to create.

It matters not a whit that history, science, and culture are replete with lessons proving that the socialist agenda leads to ruin—a ruin that is being hurried along today by sticky globs of political correctness and multiculturalism that supersede the rights of individual expression.


But my intention this week is not to delve into the current state of US politics. Besides suffering from blistering overexposure, the topic holds less and less interest to me, living as we do in the pacific climes of the Argentine outback.

In fact, here in Cafayate I can go the entire day without hearing Trump’s name, let alone his latest purported outrage against humanity. The decision to check in on the US “news” is, therefore, an entirely voluntary form of self-flagellation.


I wish I could care more, but the fact is that half of the country has its head buried so far up its nether regions, it can only stumble from one excruciatingly inane idea to the next, common sense be damned. You can decide which half.


Yet the US is a democracy, which means that for me to hope for a certain political outcome is to wish a pox on the house of about half of my fellow citizens.

Given the country is so solidly divided, with zero chance of reconciliation, the democracy is effectively broken. Which takes us back to the point that we are in the equivalent of a civil war and no one can really know what comes next.

In The Fourth Turning, Neil Howe and William Strauss’s excellent thesis on the generational waves that sweep through history, the “fourth turning” is a period of crisis like the Civil War or the Great Depression or World War II that fundamentally rips apart the status quo.
http://ggc-gg-images.s3.amazonaws.co...170310_TPP.jpgThe thing about these “turnings” is that you can’t anticipate them. For example, having lived through the “second turning” in this cycle, the 1960s, I can tell you that no one, but no one, anticipated the anti-government riots, the Black Panthers, the rise of recreational drugs, the drastic changes in societal attitudes about sex, fashion, etc.


The key theme of the earth-shaking “Consciousness Revolution” of the 1960s was a desire to be free from societal norms. A revolution I personally supported.

By contrast, the source of the conflict today—a conflict that could very well signal the beginning of a disastrous fourth turning—has to do with two different interpretations of the role of the state. That sets about half of the population against whichever government holds the reins of power.

Given the irreconcilable differences, it can’t end well.

The Uncivil War...
Some years ago, my family and I voted with our feet, a decision we haven’t regretted for a moment. My father, a restless soul, always claimed to be a citizen of the world. As I aged, I came to share that opinion because, in reality, the corner of the earth we are born in is little more than the result of a cosmic crapshoot.
Of course, those of you dear readers imbued with nationalistic fervor will feel differently.


But imagine, if you will, being a resident of Sarajevo and seeing signs pointing to the outbreak of hostilities. Would you and your family really have been better off staying cemented in place out of some notion of national pride?


Or wouldn’t it have been better to get the hell out of Dodge, before Dodge turned into hell?

Don’t get me wrong, I love the now fading ideas that made America so exceptionally successful. And I think it is highly unlikely that the current unrest in American society will devolve into a bitter, armed conflict of the sort that engulfed Sarajevo.

However, as a person who firmly believes in the principle of live and let live, and who appreciates harmony and peaceful coexistence, living in the US today with all its acrimony and hostility would be like consenting to live in a bad dream. Why would I do that when I could simply pack up, as we did, and move to a more agreeable location?

Which finally brings me to the question of what someone living in the United States, circa now, can do to live a life free of the daily stress of walking the razor’s edge of the political divide.

What You Can Do About It
When you get right down to it, there are only four realistic options for dealing with the situation in the US at the moment. Or, for that matter, any country with a politically or culturally divided society, of which there are now many.


1. Keep Your Head Down and Your Opinions to Yourself.
If you intend to stay put, consider simply checking out of the political debate. At this point, no one is going to change their mind based on a rational discussion of the facts. So why bother?

Sure, you can be secretly happy when your side gets a leg over on the opposition, but like bedtime gymnastics, that happiness is best left behind closed doors.

For people like me, who suffer from a genetic disposition toward a mild form of Tourette’s Syndrome, holding my tongue while someone mindlessly spouts off socialist drivel isn’t really an option. But maybe you can pull it off.

2. Don’t Give a Damn.
I have a number of friends who have reached the point where they simply don’t care what the other side thinks. If someone starts a political argument, they’ll firmly tell them they are wrong and suggest various ways they might enjoy sex with themselves, or perhaps with the farm animal they rode in on, and walk away.

They don’t get invited much to the family gatherings, but in many cases, that’s not such a bad thing.

Unfortunately, in many parts of the US these days, publicly displaying an affinity for the ideas espoused by Trump will expose you to social ostracism and even physical attacks. If you are okay with that risk, carry on.

3. Give a Damn.
Go on the offensive and join the political apparatus with a steely determination to beat the opposition into submission. Raise funds for your favorite candidate, write letters to members of Congress, organize your friends to knock on doors come election time, go undercover to try and get dirt on the opposition that you can later use to chase them to ground, or even run for elected office yourself.

Who knows, maybe your side will ultimately reduce the opposition to the point where they are politically powerless to stop the agenda you support.

In the case of Trump, the only way his political regime will take hold for any duration is if he is able to pass his full economic agenda and it actually has time to work. Sadly, the odds of that happening are not good.

But if you feel strongly enough about the situation, and have the time and inclination to get involved in politics, then why not go all in? At least that way, if things go badly, you can take comfort by telling yourself you did everything you could... as you are being ushered into the nearest reeducation camp.

4. Vote with Your Feet.
Per my earlier comments, that was the choice we made. As my then-girlfriend and now-wife and I traveled the world for three full years actively looking for our version of paradise on earth, I can provide a few tips that may help you locate your personal Shangri-La.


A. Move in Stages.
Some expats I know approached their exodus by selling everything and hitting the road. The first time I expatriated, that’s what I did.

Sometimes this works out, but often times it doesn’t. That’s because without actually experiencing day-to-day life in a new culture for a reasonable period of time, it’s very hard to know whether it will suit you for a longer stay.

That’s why I always recommend people put their primary residence in mothballs, or rent it out to generate some useful income, then rent in the new locale for three months or so.

That gives you the time to groove into the local culture (or not), meet other expats, and question them on the pros and cons.

Then, if everything passes the test, make the jump.

B. Start by Deciding What Your Vision of Paradise Looks Like.
The reality is that every place has its drawbacks. For instance, if the place is green, it means it rains a lot.

Start with a wish list prioritized from “non-negotiable” to “nice to have, but not essential.” Our list of non-negotiables included:
✔Nice weather. It speaks volumes that over the past seven years here in Northwest Argentina, we have had to cancel exactly one game of golf due to inclement weather. One of the expats living here commented that he thought Cafayate might have the best weather in the world, and I’d have a hard time arguing with him.

✔Nice people, low or no crime. During our three-year world tour looking for paradise, we spent time in Central America but couldn’t help but noticing that every single house had walls topped with razor wire or broken bottles. Here, that is very rare. Mind you, in other places in the country like Greater Buenos Aires, Mendoza, and Cordoba, that’s not the case. But those are big cities far, far away and so not my concern.

The locals here couldn’t be more friendly and welcoming. I believe it is because we are off the beaten path and the place isn’t overrun with tourists. And what tourists there are tend to be of the sort that the locals welcome because they tip well.

✔An unintrusive government. At least here in the Argentine outback, members of officialdom are largely of the night-watchman sort. Of course, after years of corruption dressed up as socialism, there is a hefty bureaucracy, but you can minimize your interaction with it by hiring competent local representation.

I sincerely think that my various interactions with the government here in Argentina amount to no more than an hour a year, and I am involved in three different businesses

✔No Mold. I am quite allergic to mold, which eliminates wet, humid areas, beach communities, etc.… so probably half of the world, if not more.

✔Low Taxes. Provided you manage your affairs intelligently, the taxes are very reasonable. And far less than the brutal toll taken by the US government.
That pretty much covers the non-negotiables. In terms of “nice to have, but not essential,” the list is much longer, so I won’t go into it, except to mention that here in Cafayate we very much enjoy the wine, the horses, the food, the low cost of household help, and, in particular, the lively culture.

The Argentines as a whole possess a great attitude. They love to sing, laugh, and otherwise live life to its fullest. In all sincerity, if asked how the place might be improved, I’d have a hard time coming up with an answer. I have even learned to appreciate standing in the lines that occasionally slow one’s forward progress. It’s an opportunity to practice patience, meet people, and take in your surroundings.

C. Do Your Homework.
Be sure to fully understand the tax regime, the sorts of banking services available, visa requirements, what it will take to buy a house or car, etc. Fortunately, in the Internet age, much of this research can be done from a distance, though in the end putting your boots on the ground is always essential.

While the idea of cutting loose from your cultural roots may seem complicated or make you feel a bit uneasy, in my experience, making the move can radically reenergize your life.

But in order for you to make it a positive, life-changing event, you must accept the new culture you are moving to. If you arrive expecting it to be much the same as the one you left, or try to retool it to suit your needs, you’ll set the stage for disappointment.

On the big positive side, within a day or two of arriving, you’ll be happily surprised to find that you are free of the unending stream of acrimonious “news” that is such a prominent feature of life back in the US.

That leaves you time to focus on more important matters, like what to have for lunch, who to play golf with, or, in my case at this particular moment, where to ride my horse this afternoon.

I am sorry things have eroded to the point they have in the United States. It’s a damn shame, and ultimately may become a damn shame I’ll have to deal with.
For now, however, I’ll thank my lucky stars that my path brought me to this beautiful life among the vines far from the maddened crowd.

If you’re ever in the neighborhood…

Here Come the Clowns
Speaking of Civil Wars. South African President Jacob Zuma, an epitome of the sorts of thugs who have always dominated the African political scene, last week announced an initiative to change the country’s constitution to allow for the expropriation, without compensation, of land owned by white people.

Obviously Zuma is no student of history, even when that history is as close and as current as that of Zimbabwe, now one of the world’s most impoverished nations after similarly expropriating white-owned property.

Curious about the unfolding situation on the ground, I reached out to Rex van Shalkwyk, a former Supreme Court Judge still living in South Africa, and asked him what’s going on. Here’s his candid response:
The first thing to realise about all of Zuma’s plans is that none of them has anything to do with his professed objective, whether that be the redistribution of white-owned land, the promotion of equality (whatever that means), the struggle against “white monopoly capital,” or any of his other ill-defined schemes.

He has only one objective, and that is to secure his political survival and with it, his supposed influence upon the selection of his successor, who—as a gesture of gratitude for his enthusiastic support—is expected to confer an indemnity for his innumerable crimes. Whatever he does is done only in pursuance of those two goals. This is the entire explanation for the populist rhetoric in which he is engaging with his increasingly outrageous proposals.

The other thing you should know about Zuma is that he is extraordinarily ignorant (almost illiterate and certainly innumerate). He knows nothing about the economy or the complexities of its sometimes unfathomable workings. Wealth, as he sees it, is produced by larceny, as he has produced it for himself and as he believes the whites produced it for themselves. The actual creation of wealth is an idea entirely foreign to him and, it appears, to many of his advisers.


The question that must be answered is whether he will achieve the necessary 66.23% majority of the votes in Parliament and also overcome the other constitutional obstacles in the way of the proposed land theft project. To achieve this objective requires, as he has said, the solidarity of the “black” parties in Parliament. (This is how far South Africa had advanced towards the goal of a non-racial society.)


Although he can probably count upon the support of the ill-named Economic Freedom Fighters, whose land theft policies he is now attempting to emulate, a “black” revolt will almost certainly come from the more sensible members of his own party, many of whom have already expressed their disquiet about his style of administration, and who are becoming increasingly vocal.

Under Zuma’s stewardship, the economy has stalled and could easily tip into recession if the ratings agencies were to downgrade South African debt to junk status. The prospect of this happening becomes more likely with each new Zuma-induced scandal.

However, there are innumerable other considerations that make the Zuma plan unworkable. For one thing, the land issue is not the vote-catcher that Zuma thinks it is.

The highly respected South African Institute of Race Relations has done a series of surveys that point to an inescapable conclusion: the land issue is considered to be a significant matter for only about 3% of the black respondents. Unemployment, on the other hand, is regarded as important for 40%: by far the most significant cohort among the various respondents. If it is the popular vote that Zuma is seeking, he would be advised to address himself constructively to the issue of unemployment and forget about land.


A black commentator recently observed that most of the land (and particularly farm land) is “owned” by the banks—he meant, of course, that the land is mortgaged to the banks, which hold the mortgages as security for debt. Zuma’s land theft would mean that the mortgages would become valueless, and the result would be the probable collapse of the banking system.

These are only some of the problems in the way of this insanity, but there is one consideration that demonstrates that this project will never be implemented. It probably also means that there is no serious intention to do so. The Zuma proposal, you will recall, is for a “pre-colonial land audit to establish land use and occupation…”

The “colonial era” began in South Africa in 1652, with the arrival at the Cape of Good Hope of Jan van Riebeeck. At the time, there was no record of any of the histories of the tribes of what was later to become South Africa, because there was no writing. Because of the presence of the colonists, we have a history of what transpired afterwards.

There were no blacks/bantu in what is now known as the Western Cape, which was occupied only by a small tribe of Koi, who today have practically disappeared as a separate identity because of interracial mixing. Blacks were encountered, for the first time, by the Trek-Boers when they trekked north, at the Fish River, in the Eastern Cape. Who then are the rightful owners of the land in the Western Cape?


One final thought. How long will it take to complete an audit of land use and occupation before the colonial era, assuming it can be done at all? My guess is 10 to 20 years—perhaps as long as 50 years. By that time, the Zuma aberration will be long gone.


Best,
Rex
And with that, and thanking you for reading and passing this Parade on to friends and associates who might enjoy it, I will sign off for the week. My horse awaits!
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazona...=1461680500097
David Galland
Managing Editor, The Passing Parade

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...-yellen-speech

Global Stocks, US Futures Rebound Ahead Of Critical Obamacare Repeal Vote, Yellen Speech

European and Asian stocks were modestly in the green, with U.S. futures higher, before a critical procedural vote on a Republican health-care bill to repeal Obamacare, while Janet Yellen is set to speak in Washington at 8:45am.
S&P 500 Index futures were 3 points in the green as of 6:45am ET as European shares edged higher, underpinned by the first gains for miners and health care stocks all week. Bonds of periphery countries gained before the European Central Banks last dose of free long-term cash through the final round of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations, which moments ago was announced at 233.5BN from 474 bidders, nearly double the 125BN expected. The yen gained for an eighth day, the longest winning streak in six years.

As Bloomberg notes, calm returned to the market after Tuesdays selloff sparked by positioning ahead of the Republican health-care bill, set for a vote in Congress around 7pm ET on Thursday, which the market appears confident will pass despite numerous holdouts remaining into the 11th hour. Any setback could delay enactment of tax cuts and spending increases, the prospects for which have underpinned the rally in risk assets since Trumps election in November. Below is a good summary of what is at stake from DB's Jim Reid:
Often in life and indeed in markets there are forks in the road with the knock-on impact and ultimate outcomes likely to be quite different depending on the initial path taken. Today's vote on AHCA in the House could be such an event. This might be slightly over dramatising things but it will give us big clues as to how revolutionary a Trump administration can be. If in the honeymoon period of the new administration they can't pass a bill replacing Obamacare (very unpopular with the GOP) then it clearly will dramatically reduce expectations of wider tax reform. Pass it and Trump trades may get back some of their recent lost energy.

The update yesterday was that more than 25 members of the Freedom Caucus still remain opposed to the bill, according to FT, which is enough to mean that there would be insufficient votes to pass (the general assumption is more 20 dissenters will result in it failing). This followed a day of extensive lobbying from Trump and House speaker Paul Ryan yesterday. According to multiple news reports, the suggestion however is that talks are still going on behind the scenes including discussions over revisions to the essential benefits requirements which appears to be the sticking point. Indeed the House Freedom Caucus is expected to come to the White House today prior to the vote and Mark Meadows, chair of the Caucus, said that Im very encouraged that we might be seeing some real headway and also that we are working very diligently tonight to try and get there. So things are hanging in the balance and its set up to be an interesting day. While its clear that a loss for Trump would be a major legislative defeat with likely big ramifications for policies further down the line, what is less clear is what happens in the days following todays vote if it fails and whether Trump would be prepared to go away and make the changes to allow the bill to pass in another vote. Indeed White House press secretary Sean Spicer offered zero hints on this front by saying that there is no plan B and instead theres a plan A and a plan A and were gonna get this done. When asked if he would keep on pushing healthcare in the event of the House not passing the bill, President Trump also replied saying that he would see what happens. So that only adds to the uncertainty.
Trump and Republican leaders of the House of Representatives have said they were making progress in their efforts to win over conservative Republicans who have demanded changes to the legislation. The vote on the bill, Trump's first major legislation since he took office, is expected later on Thursday.
Perhaps only a successful passage of the vote provides some hope for a return to the Trump reflation trade, which has been almost entirely unwound by now, can come back: The reflation rally in the U.S. stock markets appeared to have topped in March, causing a pullback after four months of unprecedented rise, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a market analyst at London Capital Group Ltd., wrote in a note. Trumps failure to push his plans through Congress dented investors appetite. Any positive news from todays vote has the potential to revive the stock bulls.
"If he can't push through the bill, it would further damage stocks. It also raises the risk of his other policies, like tax cuts, being delayed," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.
So heading into today's critical vote, stocks and sterling hold their ground as markets took the latest European terror attack, this time in London, one of the world's financial capitals, largely in their stride. The FTSEurofirst 300 barely budged as London, Frankfurt and Paris started flat and the pound fared better than most as the dollar began to muscle higher again in the currency markets. The history of these attacks, including those in France, Germany and Belgium last year as well those in London and Madrid more than 10 years ago, show little lasting impact on economic confidence or financial markets in isolation.
Overnight in Asia MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei closed 0.2 percent higher, as a weaker yen offset a political scandal over the relationship of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife with a Japanese nationalist education group that bought state-owned land. China's CSI 300 rose early on hopes that index compiler MSCI may include A-shares in its indices, but those gains were lost as money began flowing out of the mainland market through link to the Hong Kong exchange.
Wall Street futures were pointing to modest gains later too. On Wednesday the Nasdaq .IXIC jumped 0.5 percent and the S&P 500 closed 0.2 percent higher, while the Dow Jones was flat, after all three touched their lowest levels in about five weeks earlier in the session. [.N]
Having weakened as much as 0.4 percent after news of the London attack which killed five, sterling held steady overnight and then climbed swiftly above $1.25 after more-resilient-than-expected UK retail sales data The dollar was also creeping higher again with attention firmly on Donald Trump's first significant U.S. policy test, as he looks to gets a healthcare bill passed in U.S. congress.
"What we are getting this week is a questioning of how much of the risk rally is predicated on future Trump policy," said Michael Metcalfe, head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. "There are concerns that this vote (on healthcare reform) will be a litmus test of how much fiscal expansion he can get through."
After losing 3.5 percent in the past 10 days, the dollar was roughly steady at 111.19 yen. It gained 0.1 percent to $1.0786 per euro and up 0.15 percent against the basket of currencies used to measure its broader strength. The euro and euro zone bond markets' focus was also on what the European Central Bank hopes will be its last offering of cheap, 3-year 'TLTRO' funding, once its main crisis fighting tool, and which today the ECB announced would amount to 233.5 billion.
Yields on Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt fell 1-3 basis points ahead of the handout, continuing along with French bonds to close the spread on German Bunds. The bigger question for markets though is will it matter once these kinds of ECB loans are no longer available to banks. From now on they will only be able to get either 1-week or 3-month loans from Frankfurt. "Overall I do not think the absence of further longer-term operations will make much of a difference," said Francesco Papadia, the former head of ECB market operations who launched the offerings back in late 2011.
"LTROs (long term lending operations) are among the easiest measures to take, much easier than QE, so if there was a need for them the ECB Governing Council would not have too much of a problem in reinstating them."
With several major currency pairs steadying after a week of losses for the dollar, the biggest mover of the day was Australia's dollar, down half a percent on the back of nerves in China's money market and a slump in prices for its iron ore exports. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.7046 after its central bank held interest rates at a record low 1.75 percent, and reiterated it would remain there for a "considerable" period of time.
In commodities markets, gold dipped lower and oil prices rebounded, after touching their lowest level since November overnight on data that showed U.S. inventories, already at a record high, grew by far more than forecast. Analysts said oil had found technical support and was being pushed up as traders took new long positions after the overnight low, but supply concerns kept the gains in check. U.S. crude CLc1 added 0.75 percent to $48.40 a barrel and global benchmark Brent LCOc1 climbed 0.7 percent to $50.99.

Good Day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Here are the charts so long.

Unemployment Claims is in 23 min and Yellen speaks in +/- 40 min. Lets see what influence this will have on the markets.

https://mishtalk.com/2017/03/23/are-...r-yes-yes-yes/

Are US Treasury Yields Headed Up or Down? My Answer: Yes, Yes, Yes

23ThursdayMar 2017

Posted by Mish | March 23, 2017 4:26:07 | Economics

≈ 4 Comments

Many Mish readers have been asking about US treasury yields.

Are yields going up or down?

My fearless forecast is yes, yes, and yes. A series of charts will explain.

US Treasury Yield Curve Chart #1
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=264
Since mid-2015, yields on 1-year, 2-year, 3-year and 5-year treasuries has risen. Yields on 10-year and 30-year treasuries have fallen.

US Treasury Yield Curve Chart #2
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=268
Since December 2016, the yield on 1-year treasuries has risen. The yield on all longer-dated treasuries has fallen.

US Treasury Yield Curve Chart #3
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=265
Since July 2016, the entire yield curve, including shorter-term durations not shown, has been rising.
Since the beginning of 2014, 30-year and 10-year yields have fallen. The rest of the yield curve has risen.

What’s Happening?
Clearly, yields are headed up, down and sideways. The direction depends on duration and timeframe.

At the shorter end, five-year and less, yields have been rising since January 2014. In the same timeframe, yields on 10-year and 30-year treasuries have fallen.
Overall, we have had a bearish flattening of the yield curve since 2014.

Where To From Here?
The above charts show what has happened. But that is all water over the dam. Where we are headed is far more important.

If you think the economy is weakening (and I do), then long-dated treasuries will rally (yields fall) regardless of what short-dated treasuries (dependent on Fed hikes) will do.

Related Weakness

1. Existing Home Sales in February Wipe Out January Gains, Condo Sales Plunge: Is Low Inventory the Problem?
2. Consumer Sentiment Statistical Noise: Modern Day Snake Oil
3. Used Car Prices Plunge Most in Any Month Since 2008, Only 2nd February Decline in 20 Years
4. GDPNow Forecast Dips to 0.9%: Divergence with Nowcast Hits 2.3 Percentage Points – Why?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Comments From Benjaminis: We always need to be aware of all possibilities SO we need to carefully watch the 10 Year US Bonds and the 30 Year US Bonds over the next 90 days ending June 30, 2017.

Money Flow is always LED by the US Bonds because that is where the TRILLIONS are. We know the Economy is Terrible and we know there is a WAR going on between the FED and the Trump Administration so this is another unknown. We soon come to the end of the first quarter next Friday , March 31, 2017.

Things can change from RISK ON to RISK OFF in Minutes so be aware of this. I will be away for a few hours so trade carefully or better still await for events to unfold ESPECIALLY TODAY.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...-here-to-stay/

https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....ng-300x212.jpg
QUESTION: With the Netherlands voting against Wilders, do you think the tide is turning? Will Europe survive?

ANSWER: It may have been a huge sigh of relief for the global socialists/progressives with the loss of Geert Wilders on March 15th, but there is a clear undertone of rising discontent within Europe. Likewise, the AfD in Germany will most likely also not win. Nevertheless, Wilders was the extreme among politicians in Europe who was openly Islamophobic and EU-hating to the very far-right. Still, Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) have indeed still ushered in the dawn of a new populism in Europe, which is always against the establishment. That was in fact what swept FDR into office in 1933, Hitler in Germany also in 1933, and Mao also in 1933. Wilders may have been called “the Dutch Donald Trump” with a strong early lead in the polls, but at the last minute the current prime minister Mark Rutte came out ahead by a decent margin.
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....on-300x277.jpgPopulism is always seen as the great evil. That was how it was being portrayed by the mainstream media for the 1932 election won by FDR. Today, it is a return toward isolationism. The Americans were very against getting involved in both World War I and II. FDR went to Boston to promise their sons would NEVER go to Europe to defend the British. The Irish dominated Boston and they would not vote to send their boys to defend the British after the way they were treated.

American fled Europe because of all the political inflighting. They were isolationists and felt Europe should fend for itself. It was the politicians who lied and did whatever it took to maneuver the opinion to support their desire for war. We are merely returning to a period of isolationism after countless wars and attempts to create nation building so politicians can pound their chests.

By no means should we view the Dutch elections as this is the end of populism. It is just getting started because politicians have abused the people countless times. The loss of Wilders emboldens the EU politicians not to reform, but to make this far worse. Sure, the euro bounced. But this is nothing to write home about.

The important change in trend will come in May. The major turning-point appears to be 2008. Keep in mind that without change in leadership, Europe is doomed. They will only pursue the very same policies that have given rise to populism in the first place.

Categories: European Union, Politics
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