(GBPJPY) Trade the Trend Journal

Intro

The purpose of this journal is to keep track of my trades winners and losers. I will be posting daily analysis and screenshots of trades I take each day. For a brief introduction on my method I usually have 30sec, 2min and 10 min charts up at the same time and couple of MAs. I'm a day trader so I don't usually put much emphasis on TFs higher than 10min. If a trend develops on 30sec which is the lowest TF I look and where I also put my entry on and the price movies closer to my 2min MAs I hit buy/sell regardless of the trend on 10min. But for a confirmation I like to look at 10min candles and 20EMA, for a countertrend move on 10min I want price to at least cross above or below my 10min 20EMA. My profit target is usually set at 50pips somedays it could be more but from what I have observed from 6GMT to 9GMT GJ move is on average 50 pips. But I do look at my corresponding MAs on 30sec , 2min and 10min for a sign of reversal.

UPDATE: I no longer look at 30sec and 2min charts instead I'm going to be looking at 1H,4H and daily. I still haven't decided if I want to enter on 10min or 1h. 1h looks good enough as far as SL and account size is concerned.

I may occasionally trade USDJPY and AUDJPY if I get a clean entry. I do have other JPYs up just in case, keeping an eye on other yen pairs also helps me to see where the herd is going in case I don't get a clean candle or direction from GJ.

I always seem to go short/long before I "actually" get a confirmation and a signal which is a very bad habit I constantly struggle with. I found a little trick to deal with my itchy fingers. 2min chart on the left is an Oanda demo acc, if I feel like hitting the button I put the order on my demo account. To the right is my actual account , 10min chart.

I entered short on my demo at the arrow which obviously was a bad entry. Why ? Price is still well above my 200EMA/SMA and on 10min price found support on 20EMA candle with a long wick we're not going short yet, the closer the price is to 200EMA/SMA on 2min the more likely its going to push down. I'll be monitoring GJ to see if its going to go below my 2min 200EMA/SMA until then I'm neutral.

Update: demo acc trade currently -24pips, 2min chart its clearly showing range /it could go further up/ that's why I should have waited for price to get closer to 200EMA/SMA. Well at least I'm not losing real money

Hi Piquant , the TFs like 30 sec and 2 min you are watching sound pretty scary to me . It might be good to catch some scalps but your tread is about trading the trend and GJ is in a pretty strong uptrend right now. A few bounces off the 140 level but its gonna get broken soon. What TFs are you using to see the major picture?

Hi DwainUK

Thanks for stopping by! Didn't expect anyone to show up here.

I definitely see what you mean clear as day on the charts I attached them here not to tell you that I know whats happening but for myself as a reminder. Because I wasn't paying any attention to TFs higher than 30min for the past whole year !

I don't know if you want to listen to me rambling. But I went on this journey to trade low TFs last year. I was determined to make it happen, I would look at 1min to 10sec charts and focused solely on London session sometimes London and NY overlap. For one year of attempting at being a full time trader I didn't make a dime !

Trading TFs as low as 10sec had me losing trade after trade. My account survived because I was smart with my MM. I took some time off and started looking at charts again. I wouldn't say that I didn't learn anything while I was "trying" to trade lower TFs and multiple TF analysis. I in fact learned a lot about price , flow of things and how it interacts with my EMA/SMAs. But like I said I didn't make anything, if anything I lost a bit, a small bit. Recently after my break suddenly it all seemed to have clicked. I was using 30sec, 2min and 10min for a few consecutive days I had winners. But I started losing again, so incredibly frustrating "not again" I thought.

It's been few days since my last update and here's my conclusion trading multiple TFs does not suit me at all. Maybe someone can, but in my case when I'm trading lower TFs I lose track of the "big picture". So again yes to answer your question I wasn't looking at the big picture. Because unless you are good at concentrating at multiple TFs or have years of experience trading this way, one can lose sight of whats happening in the big picture and drown in 30sec charts. It's a vicious cycle. To make things worse I've only got my laptop so fitting multiple TFs was a lot of hassle. Sure there's a way to trade this method, absolutely. It wasn't for me.

I'm back to square one again. I haven't taken any trade since my last update except for one loser. I'm going to be looking at 10min for my entry from now on. Combination of 30sec, 2min and 10min was just too stressful for me. I've done this low TF trading for a year. Last time I remember making a decent profit (when I was still a part timer) I was trading 30min charts. When I'm on bigger TF I let my profit run, with lower TFs its really hard although you might be looking at higher TFs. Lower TFs made me feel rushed, so naturally my RR was crappy. So that's what I'm going to settling at.

As for determining a trend, I think you can find a trend on any TF even as low as 10sec. If you look at GJ 10sec or 30sec chart you'll see couple of down or up moves throughout the day. Some last hours some minutes. You have to keep higher TFs EMA/SMA as support and resistance and candles on higher TFs as a guide to see how far it goes. But this method didn't work for me. It was too stressful. I worked good when it was boring. I hope that made sense, if it didn't I'll attach a chart.

GJ is approaching a support on 1h and 4h. Daily 200 SMA is @ 137 I'm going to be looking at GJ every hour into the NY session. Other yen pairs still in a down move on 1h so my guess is GJ isn't going up anytime soon. I probably should wait on GJ for a bit long

I realise that the title of this thread is GBPJPY but I sometimes do look at other pairs mostly EURAUD,EURNZD,GBPNZD, GBPAUD I don't deal with CAD pairs as they can be unnecessarily volatile at times so does NZD (occasionally).

On update I wrote that I couldn't decide between 1h and 10min as my entry, well I think I want to settle with 4h for the time being and see how it all goes. I already got a trade going EURAUD short entered right after the first bearish candle. Yen pairs broke some major level and I was already late to the party so I looked elsewhere.

I don't know how EURAUD will turn out, this is a test run on a live account. After few good runs my confidence might jump up a bit. For now its inconclusive but I have traded long enough to know that I'll have some losses and some winners. All it matters is RR and MM. I wouldn't be too disappointed with this one being a let down, but I think I should settle with 4h as my entry daily,12h as a guidance. I'm keeping my lot size @ 0.01 that enables me to set my SL wider sure profit will be a lot smaller than if I was trading a 10min or 2min chart. But to keep me sailing above the tide I had to do it this way.

I'm going away, sitting here by the screen probably won't do me any good as I tend to get anxious as I see move developing against my favour and close the trade prematurely before it hits my SL and if I see some profit coming I lock in too early for fear of losing. Trading smaller lot with SL that I can swallow comfortably sure does help a lot.

I haven't gone.
Bad habit.
Sometimes do me good sometimes gets in the way.

I looked up at the 30min chart of EURAUD. My entry was very sloppy. On 30min its clearly in an uptrend all indicators aside just look at my 20EMA and the candlestick. I could have waited. I don't know if using 4h as my entry is a good idea. I did my best when I was trading from 30min charts and nothing else. See I can be very fickle. This is probably one of the reasons why I still haven't made it yet. But I'm persistent. So hopefully that's going to help push through my struggles.

Enough the rant. I think I'll enter on 30min while keeping an eye on higher TFs like 4h and daily. I'll keep this going (I wanted to close it so bad) but so far 30min candle looks promising. So many times my entry was sloppy I regretted getting in closed it just to see it going to the direction I entered. Discipline, I lack discipline not in terms of MM and overtrading but because of my fickle nature I can be indecisive when it comes to committing to a trade. Can't let this get in the way no more.

So here's where's EURAUD at

I decided to get out the trade at BE. Price is still well above the MAs. Yen pairs still very much in a downward move for now. I've got EURNZD in my watchlist for now. Compared to EURAUD price is barely above the MAs. I don't like to open any trades during Asian session unless we're at a major support or resistance. So far on 30min EURNZD looks like it could go up a bit more. Last night NY session sent them crawling back (first sign of reversal ?) who knows. But I see some bearish pattern on 30min EURNZD and other GBP cross pairs.

I haven't got any trades running for now.

EURNZD short in. EUR and GBP comm crosses are headed down. EURNZD seemed like the best scenario out of everyone technically speaking. I'm also keeping an eye on GBPJPY its testing 30min 200EMA/SMA I'll probably have to wait on retail sales data and London open.

Update:

EURNZD stop got hit after about an hour of struggle to break through to the downside. I am inconsistent when it comes to sticking to a trade and following my method. When few consecutive trades don't work out I tend to have doubts and start to question myself, my ability and my method. This has obviously affected my performance and my confidence.

When Frankfurt open I had 30sec, 2min and 30sec charts up at the same time. Again I should have or could have waited for price to fall below MAs on 30sec I entered when it was below. I knew it wasn't going to be smooth sailing. Frankfurt usually doesn't surprise with break outs and reverse moves. On the bright side, despite my loss (again) I don't feel as frustrated and hopeless as I was in the morning or the day before.

I had GJ and UJ up btw at the same time. On 30 min chart both were clearly in a downtrend I had a guess that they were going to fall soon. Reversals don't usually happen around this time of the time. Well 6GMT approached and like I predicted UJ and GJ fell, GJ had a bumpy ride but UJ had a relatively smooth sailing.

As I'm writing EURNZD is down again London is due in a few minutes. But who knows it may proceed higher for now its still above 30sec MAs not a good place to enter considering volatility of this pair. I think I'm going back to trading USDJPY, GBPJPY occasionally AUDJPY. They do give plenty from 6GMT - 9GMT and its relatively pain free as with EURNZD or even EURAUD somedays it can be a real struggle but then again I know not everydays going to be sunshine and rainbows.

Considering that I did have few consecutive wins with GBPJPY during this session with multiple TF method 30sec, 2min (10min) and 30min I think I should stick with what worked and see how it all goes. One good reason why I'm going back to this method of using multiple TFs and 30sec as my entry while still keeping an eye on 2min and 30min and the bigger picture is that I get to have relatively tight SL it all works out beautifully if I get the timing right. Whatever the case this is what I'm going to be sticking with. I promise I'll be consistent with my method