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#Foreign Exchange Market Data Update
The highlight of the week was the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairwoman, Janet Yellens testimony and minutes of the European Central Banks (ECB) recent monetary policy meeting.
The greenback ended the week higher, after hawkish comments from the Fed Chair and upbeat economic data stepped up bets of an interest rate hike in December. The Fed Chief, Janet Yellen, in her testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, painted an upbeat picture of the US economy and stated that an increase in interest rate was probably warranted "relatively soon", but cautioned that there would only be gradual hikes in the interest rates over time. Further, she noted that holding off on a rate hike for too long could force the Fed to raise rates abruptly in the future to keep the economy from overheating.
In other economic news, data revealed that consumer prices in the US staged their biggest rise in six months in October, suggesting that inflation is beginning to gain traction. Moreover, the nations first-time applications for unemployment benefits tumbled to a 43-year low in the week ended 12 November, pointing towards robust growth in the nations jobs market. Further, the nations housing starts soared to a nine-year high in October and building permits surprisingly rose in the same month. Additionally, the nations retail sales showed a stronger than expected performance in October, thus renewing optimism over the strength of the nations consumer spending. Also, manufacturing (SIC) production increased less than estimated in October, while industrial production surprisingly remained flat in the same month, dragged down by a decline in utilities output. On the contrary, the nations mortgage applications slumped to the lowest since January in the week ended 11 November.
Separately, the St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, indicated that a single policy rate increase, possibly in December, may be sufficient to move monetary policy to a neutral setting. He further stated that the US economy could receive a medium-term boost if the newly elected US President, Donald Trump, boosts infrastructure spending and tax reforms. Separately, the Boston Fed President, Eric Rosengren, expects a Fed rate hike in December, barring any unexpected developments. Further, he added that the Fed would likely hike interest rates more aggressively if the newly elected US President significantly stimulates the economy.
The Euro ended the week lower, after the ECB President, Mario Draghi, indicated that the ECB is likely to announce an extension of its 1.7 trillion bond-buying program next month and stated that the Eurozones economic recovery remains heavily reliant on the ECBs stimulus measures. Meanwhile, minutes of the ECBs recent meeting revealed that most policymakers are in favor of an extension in the asset purchase program, which is due to end in March and widely agreed that December would be a key month for deciding the future course of policy.

EURUSD
Last week, the EUR traded 2.44% lower against the USD and closed at 1.0585, after the ECB President, Mario Draghi, hinted that the ECB is ready to inject more stimulus in December. In economic news, the Eurozones seasonally adjusted flash gross domestic product (GDP) climbed 0.3% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2016, meeting market expectations. Additionally, the regions ZEW survey of economic sentiment index rose more than expected in November. Further, the regions seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened more than expected in September. Meanwhile, the regions consumer price inflation came in weaker than forecasted by 0.2% on a monthly basis in October while industrial production dropped less than estimated in September. Elsewhere, Germanys GDP expanded less than forecasted by 0.2% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2016. Meanwhile, the nations ZEW survey of economic sentiment index rose more than anticipated in November. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.0826 and a low of 1.0569. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0499 and first resistance at 1.0756. The second support is expected at 1.0406 and second resistance at 1.0920. Going ahead, this week investors would focus on the flash Markit manufacturing and services PMI data across the Eurozone, along with the regions flash consumer confidence index. Additionally, traders will closely watch Germanys final GDP growth and GfK consumer confidence.

GBPUSD
During the previous week, the GBP traded 2.03% lower against the USD and ended at 1.2343. Macroeconomic data indicated that, UKs ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.8% in the three months through September. Further, the nations annualized retail sales jumped more than expected in October, whereas annualized inflation climbed less than expected by 0.9% in the same month. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, cautioned Britons that inflation in the UK is set to accelerate in the coming months, following a slump in the Pound. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.2581 and a low of 1.2302. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2244, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2134. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2523, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2692. Looking ahead, Britains flash GDP, public sector net borrowings, BBA mortgage approvals and Nationwide housing prices data, all slated to release this week, would be on investors radar.

USDJPY
Last week, the USD traded 3.97% higher against the JPY and closed at 110.91. On the economic front, Japans flash annualized GDP rose more than expected by 2.2% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2016, suggesting the economy has regained some momentum. Additionally, the nations final industrial production climbed in September. Separately, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated that the Japanese economy is likely to expand moderately and is heading towards the central banks 2.0% inflation target but risks are tilted to the downside due to uncertainty over the global economy. The USD hit a high of 110.93 and a low of 106.85 against the JPY in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 108.14 and first resistance at 112.22. The second support is expected at 105.46 and second resistance at 113.62. This week, market participants look forward to the release of Japans national consumer price inflation, adjusted merchandise trade balance, Nikkei manufacturing PMI, all industry activity index and small business confidence index.

USDCHF
Last week, the USD traded 2.21% higher against the CHF and closed at 1.0093. In economic news, data showed that Switzerlands ZEW economic expectations index surged to a five-month high level in November. The USD hit a high of 1.0123 and a low of 0.9895 against the CHF in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9956, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9812. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0184, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0268. Moving ahead, Switzerlands trade balance and industrial production data, slated to release this week, would pique investor attention.

USDCAD
During the previous week, the USD traded 0.3% lower against the CAD and ended at 1.3499. The Canadian Dollar gained ground, after Canadas seasonally adjusted consumer price index climbed by 0.2% on a monthly basis in October, meeting market expectations. Moreover, the nations existing home sales rose in the same month. The pair traded at a high of 1.3589 and a low of 1.3400 during the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.3412, followed by 1.3312, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.3601, followed by 1.3690. Going forward, traders would focus on Canadas retail sales data, the sole important release this week.

AUDUSD
The AUD weakened against the USD last week, closing 2.89% lower at 0.7332. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) November meeting reflected an upbeat tone of Australias inflation rate. However, the central bank noted that considerable uncertainty remained about the strength of labor market conditions, as employment growth has been concentrated in part-time jobs. Separately, the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, maintained a generally optimistic tone about the nations economy. Further, he added that there were reasonable prospects that inflation would return to around the average levels over the next couple of years. Another set of economic data revealed that, Australias seasonally adjusted unemployment rate surprisingly remained steady at a three year low level of 5.6% in October. Further, Australias Westpac leading index climbed in the same month. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 0.7581 and a low of 0.7330. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 0.7251 and second support at 0.7165, while the first resistance is expected at 0.7502 and second resistance at 0.7667. Looking ahead, market participants would monitor Australias CB leading indicator data, the only release this week.

Gold
Gold traded 1.61% lower during the previous week, closing at USD1207.89 per ounce, amid gains in the greenback, following hawkish comments from the US Fed Chair, Janet Yellen that fueled expectations of a Fed interest rate hike in December. The precious metal traded at a high of USD1233.10 per ounce and a low of USD1201.30 per ounce in the previous week. The precious metal is expected to find its first support at USD1195.23 per ounce and first resistance at USD1227.03 per ounce. The second support is expected at USD1182.37 per ounce and second resistance at USD1245.97 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Crude oil traded 5.25% higher in the previous week, closing at USD45.69 per barrel, amid mounting expectations that the OPEC will find a way to curb production in a meeting scheduled later this month. Gains in crude prices were boosted further, after the Russian Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, stated that Russia will support OPECs deal to curb production and saw strong chances of oil producers reaching an agreement on the terms of output deal in an upcoming meeting. Additionally, the Saudi Arabia Energy Minister, Khalid al-Falih, expressed optimism over OPECs ability to reach an output deal later this month. Separately, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude stockpiles rose more than expected by 5.3 million barrels to 490.3 million barrels in the week ended 11 November, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US crude oil inventories climbed by 3.7 million barrels to 488.8 million last week. Crude oil hit a high of USD46.58 per barrel and a low of USD42.20 per barrel in the previous week. The commodity is expected to find its first support at USD43.04 per barrel and first resistance at USD47.42 per barrel. The second support is expected at USD40.43 per barrel and second resistance at USD49.19 per barrel.

Good trades Traders.

#Foreign Exchange Market Data Update
Last week, the forex market was dictated by minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent monetary policy meeting and a host of upbeat US economic data.
The greenback gained ground, after minutes of the FOMC’s November monetary policy meeting confirmed that Fed officials were creeping closer to their first interest rate increase in this year. Minutes indicated that policymakers felt it appropriate to raise interest rates “relatively soon”, provided that incoming economic data remains encouraging.
The greenback received an additional boost from upbeat US economic reports which further tilted the scales towards a Fed interest rate hike in December. Data indicated that flash durable goods orders in the US rebounded at the fastest pace in a year in October, pointing to a tentative pickup in business investment. Additionally, activity in the nation’s manufacturing PMI recorded its strongest reading in thirteen months in November, suggesting that manufacturing sector will continue to remain one of the bright spots for the economy. Further, the nation’s final Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index hovered to a six-month high in November, highlighting that economic outlook is brightening. Moreover, the nation’s existing home sales unexpectedly surged to its highest level since February 2007 in October, whereas the Richmond Fed manufacturing index strengthened to its highest level in four months in November. Meanwhile, the nation’s services sector expanded in November, albeit at a slower pace, while the number of Americans filing for fresh unemployment benefits came in slightly more than estimated in the week ended 19 November. On the contrary, the nation’s new home sales surprisingly fell in October, while goods trade deficit widened more than expected in the same month.
The Euro ended the week slightly lower. In economic news, data revealed that activity in the Eurozone’s services PMI surged to its highest level in eleven months in November, highlighting that the region’s services sector is on the growth-path. Moreover, growth in the region’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly advanced in November, while flash consumer confidence index improved to its highest level since December 2015 in the same month.
Macroeconomic data released during the week showed that Germany’s economic growth slowed to 0.2% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter, confirming the preliminary print, amid weak overseas trade. Meanwhile, the nation’s services sector surprised with an acceleration to a six-month high in November. Further, the nation’s GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly edged higher in December. On the other hand, the nation’s manufacturing sector disappointed with a slower rate of expansion in November, whereas the Ifo business expectations index unexpectedly eased in the same month.

EURUSD
Last week, the EUR traded marginally lower against the USD and closed at 1.0584. On the economic front, data revealed that the Eurozone’s flash Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly advanced in November, while the preliminary services PMI jumped more than expected in the same month. Additionally, the region’s flash consumer confidence index improved more than expected in November. Moreover, Germany’s preliminary Markit services sector surprisingly advanced in November, whereas the flash Markit manufacturing PMI expanded at a slower pace than anticipated in the same month. Further, the nation’s final gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.2% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2016, meeting preliminary figures. Moreover, the nation’s consumer confidence index unexpectedly edged up in December. On the other hand, the nation’s Ifo business expectations index unexpectedly eased in November. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.0658 and a low of 1.0518. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.0521 and second support at 1.0450, while the first resistance is expected at 1.0661 and second resistance at 1.0730. This week, investors would focus on a speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi, along with the unemployment rate and final Markit manufacturing PMI across the Eurozone, to gauge the strength in the European economy.

GBPUSD
The GBP advanced against the USD last week, closing 1.06% higher at 1.2474, after the UK’s Chancellor, Philip Hammond, in his Autumn Statement, slightly revised up UK’s growth outlook for this year and introduced plans to increased spending on those areas of the economy that can help boost productivity in the nation. Philip Hammond stated that Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revised up UK’s growth forecast to 2.1% for 2016, from 2.0% estimated earlier, but slashed its growth projection for 2017 to 1.4%, down from 2.2% previously estimated. Additionally, he confirmed that the government is no longer seeking a budget surplus in 2019-20 and is committed to returning public finances to balance “as soon as practicable”. In other economic news, second estimate of UK’s GDP came in line with preliminary print. Meanwhile, the nation’s public sector net borrowing narrowed more than expected in October. The pair traded at a high of 1.2513 and a low of 1.2313 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.2348 and second support at 1.2230, while the first resistance is expected at 1.2548 and second resistance at 1.2630. Looking ahead, investors anxiously await Britain’s Markit manufacturing and construction PMI, financial stability report, Nationwide house prices, mortgage approvals and GfK consumer confidence data, all scheduled to release this week.

USDJPY
The USD traded 1.94% higher against the JPY last week, with the pair closing at 113.06. Macroeconomic data showed that, Japan’s national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% YoY in October. Also, the nation’s preliminary Nikkei manufacturing PMI expanded at a slower pace in November. Further, the nation’s adjusted merchandise trade surplus widened more than expected in October. Moreover, all industry activity index unexpectedly rose in September. On the contrary, the nation’s annual exports and imports, both dropped in October. The USD hit a high of 113.90 and a low of 110.27 against the JPY in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 110.92, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.78. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.55, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.04. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to Japan’s unemployment rate, retail trade, large retailers’ sales, industrial production and final Nikkei manufacturing PMI, all due to release this week.

USDCHF
Last week, the USD traded 0.37% higher against the CHF and closed at 1.0130. On the data front, Switzerland’s annual industrial production rose in the third quarter of 2016. Meanwhile, the nation’s trade surplus narrowed more than expected in October, whereas exports slid in the same month. The pair traded at a high of 1.0192 and a low of 1.0068 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0076 and first resistance at 1.0200. The second support is expected at 1.0010 and second resistance at 1.0258. Moving ahead, investors will look forward to Switzerland’s GDP, UBS consumption indicator, KOF leading indicator, real retail sales and SVME purchasing managers’ index data, all slated to release this week.

USDCAD
The USD traded 0.21% higher against the CAD last week, with the pair closing at 1.3528. On the economic front, data revealed that Canada’s retail sales recorded its biggest gain since April 2016 in September. The USD hit a high of 1.3536 and a low of 1.3378 against the CAD in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.3422, followed by 1.3321, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.3580, followed by 1.3637. Going forward, a speech by the Bank of Canada’s Governor, Stephen Poloz along with the nation’s GDP, unemployment rate and RBC manufacturing PMI data, all slated to release this week, would garner lot of market attention.

AUDUSD
The AUD strengthened against the USD last week, closing 1.34% higher at 0.7430. Data released during the week indicated that, construction work done in Australia declined on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2016. On the other hand, the nation’s CB leading indicator rose in September. The AUD hit a high of 0.7468 and a low of 0.7311 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 0.7349 and second support at 0.7251, while the first resistance is expected at 0.7506 and second resistance at 0.7565. Looking ahead, market participants await the release of Australia’s HIA new home sales, AiG performance of manufacturing index and retail sales data, all scheduled to release this week.

Gold
Last week, gold fell 2.01% to close at USD1183.56 per ounce, after largely upbeat economic data in the US and hawkish tone of the US Fed minutes, boosted the case for an interest rate hike in December. Last week, the precious metal traded at a high of USD1223.50 per ounce and a low of USD1172.80 per ounce. The yellow metal is expected to witness its first support at USD1164.77 per ounce and second support at USD1143.43 per ounce, while the first resistance is expected at USD1215.47 per ounce and second resistance at USD1244.83 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Last week, crude oil strengthened 0.81% to close at USD46.06 per barrel, lifted by rising conviction that major oil producers would come to an agreement to curb output in an upcoming meeting on 30 November. Additionally, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, voiced confidence that a deal to freeze production will be reached in a proposed meeting in Vienna. Further, Iraq’s Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, expressed willingness to cut its crude output as part of OPEC’s plan to reduce global supply and boost crude prices. Oil prices were supported further, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil stocks fell by 1.3 million barrels to 489.0 million barrels in the week ended 18 November, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) also indicated that US oil inventories narrowed by 1.3 million barrels to 487.5 million barrels. The black commodity hit a high of USD49.20 per barrel and a low of USD45.88 per barrel in the previous week. Crude oil is expected to witness its first support at USD44.83 per barrel and second support at USD43.69 per barrel, while the first resistance is expected at USD48.15 per barrel and second resistance at USD50.33 per barrel.

Good trades Traders.

Sempre com convicção

#Forehand2016_Foreign Exchange Market Data Update
The highlight of the week was the European Central Banks (ECB) surprise decision to scale down its massive monthly bond-buying program. The ECB, in its last monetary policy meeting of the year, left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.0% and announced that it will extend its monthly asset purchase program until December 2017, while leaving the door open for an extension if necessary. The central bank is set to reduce its bond buying program to 60.0 billion a month from 80.0 billion a month.
Another set of data indicated that, economic growth in the Eurozone was confirmed at 0.3% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter of 2016. Additionally, the regions retail sales rebounded at its strongest pace in more than two years in October. On the contrary, activity in the regions services sector unexpectedly slowed in November, while the Sentix investor confidence index surprisingly weakened in December.
The US Dollar ended the week higher, after the US non-manufacturing PMI accelerated to its highest level in thirteen-months in November, highlighting that the economy is continuing to expand strongly heading towards the year end. Also, the nations flash Reuters/Michigan consumer confidence index jumped in December, pushing the index to its highest level since January 2015 and indicating that Americans are getting increasingly optimistic about the nations growth prospects. Further, the nations factory orders surged to its highest level in 16-months in October, suggesting that the nations manufacturing sector is gaining momentum, after struggling to gain traction throughout the year. Moreover, the number of American filing for fresh jobless benefits fell in line with estimates in the week ended 03 December 2016, thus pointing towards a healthy labor market. Meanwhile, consumer credit marked its slowest rate of increase in 4-months in October. Also, the nations final durable goods orders came in better than expected in the same month. On the contrary, the nations trade deficit widened to its highest level since March 2015 in October, as imports surged to a 14-month peak.
The Pound ended the week on a weaker footing, after an unexpected downturn in UKs manufacturing and industrial sector dented the nations growth outlook in the fourth-quarter. Data revealed that UKs industrial production unexpectedly declined to a four year low in October, while the nations manufacturing production surprisingly posted its largest decline in eight-months in the same month. Moreover, activity in the nations construction sector unexpectedly advanced at the fastest pace since March 2016 in November, suggesting that the nations construction sector is on the recovery-path after going through a slump in the wake of the historic Brexit vote.

EURUSD
The EUR traded 1.04% lower against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 1.0559, after the ECB, in its monetary policy meeting, decided to extend its QE program by an extra nine months or beyond, if necessary. In other economic news, the Eurozones seasonally adjusted final GDP rose 0.3% QoQ in the third quarter of 2016, while the regions retail sales rebounded in October. Meanwhile, Germanys seasonally adjusted industrial production rebounded less than expected in October. Moreover, the nations Markit construction PMI advanced in November, while final Markit services PMI surprisingly climbed in the same month. The EUR hit a high of 1.0874 and a low of 1.0531 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.0435 and second support at 1.0312, while the first resistance is expected at 1.0778 and second resistance at 1.0998. This week, investors would focus on the consumer price inflation, the flash Markit manufacturing and services PMI and the ZEW economic sentiment index across the Eurozone, to gauge strength in the European economy.

GBPUSD
Last week, the GBP traded 1.14% lower against the USD and closed at 1.2574, after UKs industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly declined in October. In other economic news, the nations Markit services PMI unexpectedly jumped in November, whereas construction PMI unexpectedly advanced in the same month. Meanwhile, NIESR predicted that UK economy grew 0.4% in the three months to November. Further, the nations Halifax house price index rose in line market expectations in November and RICS house price balance climbed in the same month. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.2775 and a low of 1.2549. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2492 and first resistance at 1.2718. The second support is expected at 1.2407 and second resistance at 1.2859. Looking ahead, market participants would anxiously await the BoEs interest rate decision along with UKs consumer price inflation, ILO unemployment rate and retail sales data, all scheduled to release this week.

USDJPY
The USD advanced against the JPY last week, closing 1.6% higher at 115.36, after Japans final GDP unexpectedly slowed to 0.3% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2016. Also, the nations consumer confidence index surprisingly fell in November, whereas the nations (BOP basis) trade surplus narrowed more than estimated in October. Another set of data showed that the nations Nikkei services PMI advanced in November and the BSI large manufacturing index increased on a quarterly basis in 4Q 2016. Moreover, the nations Eco-Watchers survey for the current situation rose in November, while the survey for the future outlook edged up in the same month. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 115.37 and a low of 113.13. The pair is expected to find its first support at 113.79 and first resistance at 116.03. The second support is expected at 112.34 and second resistance at 116.82. Moving ahead, traders would keep a close watch on Japans flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI, Tankan large manufacturers index, industrial production, machine orders, tertiary industry index and machine tool orders data, all due to release this week.

USDCHF
Last week, the USD traded 0.64% higher against the CHF and closed at 1.0175. The Swiss Franc lost ground after Switzerlands consumer price index dropped more than estimated on a monthly basis in November. Meanwhile, the nations seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.3% in November at par with market expectations. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.0214 and a low of 1.0021. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0060 and first resistance at 1.0253. The second support is expected at 0.9944 and second resistance at 1.0330. Investors this week await the release of Swiss National Banks (SNB) interest rate decision accompanied with Switzerlands ZEW economic survey and SECO economic forecast all slated to release this week.

USDCAD
Last week, the USD traded 0.88% lower against the CAD and closed at 1.3175. The Bank of Canada (BoC), in its recent monetary policy meeting, held the benchmark interest rate steady at 0.50%, as widely expected, stating that Canadian economy experienced a healthy rebound in the third quarter, following a slump earlier in the year and is growing as expected, despite lingering uncertainty in the US and its other major trading partners. The central bank further added that although the nations growth rebounded strongly during the third quarter, the economy is expected to shift to moderate growth in the fourth quarter, as business investment and non-energy goods exports continue to disappoint. In other economic news, the nations building permits unexpectedly surged in October, whereas new housing price index rose more than expected in the same month. On the other hand, the nations seasonally adjusted housing starts came in weaker than anticipated in November, while seasonally adjusted Ivey purchasing mangers index unexpectedly eased in the same month. The pair traded at a high of 1.3349 and a low of 1.3153 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3106 and first resistance at 1.3302. The second support is expected at 1.3031 and second resistance at 1.3423. Ahead in the week, market participants will concentrate on a speech by BoC Governor, Stephen Poloz, along with Canadas existing home sales data, scheduled this week.

AUDUSD
Last week, the AUD traded 0.12% lower against the USD and closed at 0.7451. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its latest monetary policy meeting, maintained the key interest rate steady at 1.50%, meeting market expectations. In a post-meeting statement, the RBA stated that taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy earlier in the year, the policymakers found it prudent to hold the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting, as it would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time. Further, the central bank acknowledged that the Australian economy is continuing its transition following the mining investment boom, with subdued outlook for business investment, although measures of business sentiment remain above average. Further, Australias AIG performance of services index climbed in November, whereas seasonally adjusted trade deficit unexpectedly expanded in October. The pair traded at a high of 0.7508 and a low of 0.7414 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 0.7408, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7364. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7502, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7552. Looking ahead, Australias unemployment rate, NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence and consumer inflation expectations data, scheduled to release this week, would garner significant amount of market attention.

Gold
Gold traded 1.49% lower during the previous week, closing at USD1159.86 per ounce, as mounting expectations of an interest rate hike by the Fed later this week and the ECBs announcement of an extension to its QE program until December 2017, boosted gains in the greenback. Last week, the precious metal traded at a high of USD1183.50 per ounce and a low of USD1157.60 per ounce. The yellow metal is expected to witness its first support at USD1150.97 per ounce and second support at USD1141.33 per ounce, while the first resistance is expected at USD1176.87 per ounce and second resistance at USD1193.13 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Crude oil weakened in the previous week, closing 0.35% lower at USD51.50 per barrel, as mounting doubts whether OPECs production cut deal would be sufficient enough to reduce global supply-glut, dented demand for the commodity. Over the weekend, the OPEC and non-OPEC producers reached their first deal since 2001 to jointly reduce crude output in order to rein in swelling global crude supply and stabilize oil market. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decline of 2.4 million barrels in the US crude stockpiles to 485.8 million barrels in the week ended 02 December, while the American Petroleum Institute disclosed that US crude oil inventories fell 2.2 million barrels in the same week. Crude oil witnessed a high of USD52.42 per barrel and a low of USD49.61 per barrel last week. Crude oil is expected to find support at USD49.93 per barrel, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD48.37 per barrel. The commodity is expected to find its first resistance at USD52.74 per barrel, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD53.99 per barrel.

Good trades Traders.

#Penultimate2016_Foreign Exchange Market Data Update
Last week, the forex market was dictated by the monetary policy meetings of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE).
The greenback ended the week higher, as the Feds move to raise interest rates was widely expected, but signs of increasing rates at a faster clip next year took markets by surprise, thus boosting gains in the greenback. The Fed, in its last monetary policy meeting of the year, raised the key interest rates for the first time this year by a quarter percentage point to between 0.50% and 0.75%, citing improving trajectory for the US economy, tighter labor market conditions and rising wage pressures. In a post-meeting statement, the central bank indicated that it has now penciled-in three rate hikes in 2017 instead of two under its prior forecast. Further, the central bank pushed up its expectations for economic growth to 1.9% in 2016, from an earlier projection of 1.8% and by 2.1% in 2017, from 2.0%. Meanwhile, the Richmond Fed President, Jeffrey Lacker stated that the Fed will likely need to raise interest rates more than three times next year.
Other economic data showed that, consumer prices in the US rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, rising for the fourth consecutive month and adding to evidence that inflation is gradually approaching the central banks goal. Further, fewer than expected Americans applied for fresh jobless benefits in the week ended 10 December 2016. Also, the nations NAHB housing market index unexpectedly surged to its highest level in eleven years in December, boosted by increasing optimism under the presidency of Donald Trump. Moreover, the nations manufacturing activity surged to its highest level in 21-months in December. Meanwhile, advance retail sales came in weaker than expected in November, posting its smallest gain in 3 months. On the other hand, the nations industrial production declined by the most in 8 months in November. Additionally, the nations manufacturing production disappointed in November, while business inventories dropped to an eleven month low in October. Further, US housing starts and building permits, both declined more than expected in November.
The Pound ended the week on a weaker footing, as the BoE, in its recent monetary policy meeting, left the key interest rate at 0.25% as expected, but raised concerns by lowering its inflation forecast for 2017. The central bank also maintained the current asset purchase program at 435.0 billion. Minutes of the meeting indicated that the UK economy appears to be growing at a healthy pace in the second half of the year but the central bank continues to expect a slowdown in 2017, as firms put their investment decisions on hold. Further, it also highlighted that inflation may not rise as quickly as expected in the near-term.
In economic news, UKs inflation advanced at the fastest annual pace in more than two years in November, driven by a sharp depreciation in pound, while the ILO unemployment rate remained steady at an eleven-year low level of 4.8% in the three months to October.

EURUSD
Last week, the EUR traded 1.06% lower against the USD and closed at 1.0447, after the Eurozones seasonally adjusted industrial production unexpectedly declined in October, while the regions seasonally adjusted trade surplus surprisingly narrowed in the same month. On the contrary, the regions final annual inflation rose 0.6% in November, at par with market expectations. Further, the ZEW economic sentiment index advanced more than expected in December and the flash Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed in the same month. Separately, Germanys ZEW economic sentiment index surprisingly remained steady in December, while the annual inflation advanced to a two-year high of 0.8% in November. Also, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI advanced more than expected in December. However, activity in the nations services sector slowed in the same month. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.0670 and a low of 1.0367. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.0316, followed by 1.0190, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.0619, followed by 1.0796. Ahead in the week, market participants would concentrate on the Eurozones flash consumer confidence and economic bulletin report. Additionally, Germanys Ifo expectations index, German Buba monthly report as well as GfK consumer confidence index would also be keenly watched by investors.

GBPUSD
The GBP declined against the USD last week, closing 0.69% lower at 1.2487, after minutes of the BoEs latest monetary policy meeting indicated that inflation may not rise as quickly as expected in the near-term. The central bank, held the benchmark interest rate steady at a record low level of 0.25%, as widely expected. In other economic news, Britains consumer price inflation advanced more than anticipated by 1.2% YoY in November and the retail sales unexpectedly climbed on a monthly basis in the same month. Further, the nations ILO unemployment rate remained steady at an eleven-year low level of 4.8% in the three months to October. However, the number of people employed fell in the August-October 2016 period. Additionally, the nations Rightmove house price index slid in December. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.2728 and a low of 1.2376. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.2329 and second support at 1.2176, while the first resistance is expected at 1.2681 and second resistance at 1.2880. Looking ahead, Britains public sector net borrowings, GfK consumer confidence, final GDP and Rightmove house price index, all slated to released this week would generate lot of market attention.

USDJPY
During the previous week, the USD traded 2.27% higher against the JPY and ended at 117.98. On the data front, Japans final industrial production remained flat on a monthly basis in October, whereas the flash machine tool orders dropped in November. On the contrary, the nations flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI rose in December, while the tertiary industry index rose less than expected in October. Additionally, the nations machinery orders came in better than expected in the same month. Other economic data showed that the nations Tankan large manufacturing index advanced in the fourth quarter of 2016, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the nations Tankan non-manufacturing index remained unchanged in the same period. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 118.66 and a low of 114.74. The pair is expected to find its first support at 115.55 and first resistance at 119.47. The second support is expected at 113.19 and second resistance at 121.03. This week, market participants would focus on BoJs interest rate decision along with Japans adjusted merchandise trade balance and all industry activity index.

USDCHF
During the previous week, the USD traded 0.78% higher against the CHF and ended at 1.0254. On the economic front, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept key interest rate unchanged at -0.75%. The SNB Chairman, Thomas Jordan stated that going further, it might become necessary to further lower rates in Switzerland from their current record-low levels and reiterated that the central bank would continue to remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary with the Swiss Franc still considered to be significantly overvalued. Further, the SNB slightly downgraded its inflation forecasts. It now sees 2017 inflation at 0.1% versus its previous September forecast of 0.2% and the 2018 estimate has been reduced slightly to 0.5% from 0.6%. In other economic news, Switzerlands ZEW survey for economic expectations index climbed in December. Separately, the Swiss governments expert group, SECO has forecasted a pick up in Switzerlands economy, driven by growth in both domestic demand and foreign trade. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.0344 and a low of 1.0084. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.0123, followed by 0.9973, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.0383, followed by 1.0493. Moving ahead, investors will closely monitor Switzerlands trade balance and KOF leading indicator index, both slated to release this week.

USDCAD
The USD rose against the CAD last week, closing 1.18% higher at 1.3331. The Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Stephen Poloz, stated that weaker than expected exports and disruption in energy production due to Alberta wildfires contributed to a challenging year for the Canadian economy. On the data front, Canadas existing home sales declined on a monthly basis in November. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3417 and a low of 1.3082. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.3145 and second support at 1.2946, while the first resistance is expected at 1.3480 and second resistance at 1.3616. Going forward, Canadas GDP, consumer price inflation and retail sales data, due to release this week would pique significant amount of investor attention.

AUDUSD
During the previous week, the AUD traded 1.97% lower against the USD and ended at 0.7304, after Australias seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.7% in November. Also, the nations Westpac consumer confidence index eased in December, whereas the NAB business conditions index dropped in November. On the other hand, the nations employment jumped in November, while the consumer inflation expectations improved in December. Moreover, the nations NAB business confidence index inched higher in November. Meanwhile, the nations house price index rose on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2016. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 0.7525 and a low of 0.7266. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.7200 and first resistance at 0.7459. The second support is expected at 0.7104 and second resistance at 0.7622. Looking ahead, traders will keep a close watch on Reserve Bank of Australias recent meeting minutes, the sole important release this week.

Gold
Gold traded 2.15% lower during the previous week, closing at USD1134.88 per ounce, amid a surge in the greenback as the US Federal Reserve, in its latest monetary policy meeting, raised interest rates for the second time in a decade and signaled that interest rates would rise at a faster pace than previously projected in 2017. The yellow metal witnessed a high of USD1168.00 per ounce and a low of USD1124.30 per ounce in the previous week. The yellow metal is expected to witness its first support at USD1117.20 per ounce and second support at USD1098.90 per ounce, while the first resistance is expected at USD1160.90 per ounce and second resistance at USD1186.30 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Last week, crude oil traded 0.78% higher and ended at USD51.90 per barrel, amid increased optimism that output cuts by major oil producers will curb global glut. Gains in oil prices were supported further, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude stockpiles fell by 2.6 million barrels to 483.2 million barrels in the week ended 09 December. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 4.7 million barrels last week. The commodity hit a high of USD54.49 per barrel and a low of USD49.95 per barrel in the previous week. The commodity is expected to find its first support at USD49.76 per barrel and first resistance at USD54.30 per barrel. The second support is expected at USD47.59 per barrel and second resistance at USD56.67 per barrel.

That the trades are in the middle of us.

#From Portugal with Love "ups"

Last week, the forex market was dictated by monetary policy decisions of key central banks and the release of mixed US jobs report.
The US Dollar ended the week lower against the key currencies, after the latest US jobs report painted a gloomy picture of the US economy. Non-farm payrolls data indicated that US economy added most number of jobs in 4-months in January. However, the nations average hourly earnings of all employees disappointed with a weaker than expected rise in January, prompting investors to bet against a near-term interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Also, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.8% in January. Separately, the US Fed, in its latest monetary policy meeting, maintained benchmark interest rates steady as expected, with the Chair, Janet Yellen, giving few clues about the timing of the next interest rate rise. However, policymakers remained optimistic on the outlook for the US economy.
In other economic news, the US ISM manufacturing activity topped market expectations in January, while the non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly eased in the same month. Meanwhile, ADPs private sector employment climbed in January, while initial jobless claims dropped higher than expected in the week ended 28 January 2017, pointing towards a tighter labor market. Also, growth in the services sector was revised higher in January. On the other hand, the nations consumer confidence dropped in January.
The GBP ended the week in negative territory against the USD, after the Bank of England (BoE), in its latest monetary policy meeting, played down the possibility of near-term interest rate hike, while leaving the key interest rate steady at a record low level of 0.25%. Further, the central bank lifted its growth outlook for 2017 and 2018. The bank now expects economic growth of 2.0% this year, up from 1.4% estimated in November, while also raising growth-forecast for 2018 and 2019 to 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. Moreover, policymakers signaled that they are in no rush to raise interest rate as Britains exit from the European Union continues to cast uncertainty.
Euro ended the week on a stronger footing, after the Eurozones flash consumer price index (CPI) surged to its highest level in nearly 4 years on an annual basis in January, a development that is likely to amplify calls for the European Central Bank to reconsider its monetary policy stance. Additionally, the regions preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) showed that the economy expanded as expected on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter. Further, the regions unemployment rate surprisingly plummeted to a 7-year low level of 9.6% in December, highlighting that the labor market is gaining strong momentum.

EURUSD
The EUR strengthened against the USD last week, closing 0.81% higher at 1.0781, after the Eurozones flash CPI jumped 1.8% on an annual basis in January, while preliminary GDP expanded 0.5% on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter, meeting market expectations. Further, the regions unemployment rate surprisingly declined in December. Additionally, the regions final Markit manufacturing PMI rose above expectations in January, whereas the services sector growth was surprisingly revised upwards in the same month. In contrast, the regions retail sales unexpectedly dropped in December. Separately, Germanys annual inflation surged 1.9% on an annual basis in January, whereas unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to a record low level of 5.9% in January. Also, the nations manufacturing PMI rose in January and the services sector growth slightly advanced in the same month. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.0829 and a low of 1.0620. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.0657, followed by 1.0534, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.0866, followed by 1.0952. This week, investors would focus on the Eurozones Sentix investor confidence index, along with Germanys industrial production, trade balance as well as factory orders data.

GBPUSD
During the previous week, the GBP traded 0.49% lower against the USD and ended at 1.2485, after the BoE, in its latest monetary policy meeting, indicated that it is in no rush to hike interest rates in the near-term. The BoE, in a widely expected move, kept the key interest rate steady at 0.25%. In other economic news, UKs Markit manufacturing PMI edged down in January, while services PMI eased more than expected in the same month. Also, the nations construction PMI dropped in January. Meanwhile, the nations net consumer credit rose less than expected in December, while the GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in January. On the contrary, the nationwide house prices rose in the same month. The pair traded at a high of 1.2706 and a low of 1.2413 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2363 and first resistance at 1.2656. The second support is expected at 1.2241 and second resistance at 1.2827. Looking ahead, traders would focus on UKs NIESR GDP estimate, total trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production, construction output and RICS house price balance data, all scheduled to release this week.

USDJPY
Last week, the USD traded 2.05% lower against the JPY and closed at 112.70. The Japanese Yen gained ground against the USD, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ), in its latest monetary policy meeting, raised Japans growth outlook, while keeping the benchmark interest rate steady at -0.1%, as widely anticipated. The central bank also pledged to continue with its yield curve control program. Further, policymakers also boosted their growth-outlook for fiscal year 2016 to 1.4% from a prior estimate of 1.0% made in October, while fiscal 2017 growth was also upwardly revised to 1.5% from 1.3% in October. Meanwhile, minutes of the December meeting disclosed that most of the board members believe that Japanese economy remains on a moderate recovery path. In other economic news, Japans unemployment rate remained steady at 3.1% in December, meeting market expectations. Additionally, the nations preliminary industrial production advanced more than expected in December. Moreover, the nations final Nikkei manufacturing PMI advanced in January, while services PMI eased in the same month. The pair traded at a high of 114.94 and a low of 112.06 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 111.52, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.35. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.40, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.11. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to Japans flash leading and coincident indices, BoJs summary of opinions report, trade balance (BOP basis) and Eco-Watchers survey data, all slated to release this week.

USDCHF
The USD traded 0.66% lower against the CHF last week, with the pair closing at 0.9924. On the economic front, Switzerlands real retail sales eased more than anticipated on an annual basis in December. Further, the nations KOF economic barometer index unexpectedly dropped in January, while the SVME purchasing managers index fell more than expected in the same month. The USD hit a high of 1.0045 and a low of 0.9862 against the CHF in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9844, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9761. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0027, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0127. Going ahead, Switzerlands unemployment rate and SECO consumer confidence data, scheduled to release this week, will be on investors radar.

USDCAD
Last week, the USD traded 0.97% lower against the CAD and closed at 1.3022. The Canadian Dollar gained ground, after Canadas GDP expanded faster than estimated on a monthly basis in November, driven by strength in the manufacturing sector. Also, the nations RBC purchasing managers index soared in January. The pair traded at a high of 1.3169 and a low of 1.2969 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.2942 and second support at 1.2856, while the first resistance is expected at 1.3142 and second resistance at 1.3256. Going forward, investors would turn their attention to Canadas jobs report and new house price index, both scheduled to release this week.

AUDUSD
The AUD strengthened against the USD last week, closing 1.82% higher at 0.7683. In economic news, Australias AiG performance of manufacturing index eased in January, while AIG performance of services index fell in the same month. On the other hand, the nations NAB business confidence index advanced in December and the business conditions index climbed in the same month. Other economic data showed that Australias trade surplus widened in December, as export growth outpaced that of imports. On the contrary, the nations building permits declined in December. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 0.7696 and a low of 0.7528. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.7575, followed by 0.7468, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.7743, followed by 0.7804. Looking ahead, market participants await the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) interest rate decision along with Australias AiG performance of construction index, retail sales and HIA new home sales data, all set to release this week.

Gold
During the previous week, gold traded 2.44% higher and ended at USD1220.30 per ounce, after the latest US jobs data flagged up weak wage growth, thus dampening prospects of near-term interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Gold hit a high of USD1227.50 per ounce and a low of USD1190.00 per ounce during the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at USD1197.97 per ounce, followed by USD1175.23 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in USD1235.47 per ounce, followed by USD1250.23 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Crude oil traded 1.24% higher in the previous week, closing at USD53.83 per barrel, amid rising concerns that US sanctions on Iran could hamper the nations crude supplies. However, oil prices pared some of its gains after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a build of 6.5 million barrels in US crude stockpiles to 494.8 million barrels during the week ended 27 January 2017, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US crude oil inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels to 488.0 million barrels in the week ended 27 January 2017. The commodity hit a high of USD54.34 per barrel and a low of USD52.24 per barrel in the previous week. The commodity is expected to find its first support at USD52.61 per barrel and first resistance at USD54.71 per barrel. The second support is expected at USD51.37 per barrel and second resistance at USD55.57 per barrel.

Good trades Traders.

Last week, the forex market was dictated by hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and some top Fed officials.
The greenback ended the week higher against its major peers, after the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, cemented a March interest rate hike. Yellen indicated that an interest rate hike in this month would be "appropriate", if employment and other economic data hold up. Additionally, the Dallas Fed President, Robert Kaplan, stated that the Fed might need to raise interest rates in the near future, while the San Francisco Fed President, John Williams, stated that a March interest rate hike “is on the table for serious consideration”. Separately, the US President, Donald Trump, in his address to Congress, called for major infrastructure spending of around $1.0 trillion, but did not elaborate on any key details about his economic plans.
Gains in the greenback were boosted further, after the US ISM manufacturing index showed a strong performance in February, surging to its highest level in over 2 years, while the ISM non-manufacturing index expanded at its fastest pace in nearly 2 years, suggesting that the economic activity may be on the rise. Also, the nation’s initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to a nearly 44-year low level in the week ended 25 February 2017. Meanwhile, the second estimate of annualized gross domestic product confirmed that the US economic growth slowed to 1.9% in 4Q 2016, amid lower government spending and weaker business investment. Also, the nation’s flash durable goods orders rebounded in January, on the back of a pick-up in demand for commercial and military aircrafts. Meanwhile, the CB consumer confidence index surprisingly climbed to a 15-year high level in February.
On the other hand, the nation’s advance goods trade deficit widened sharply in February, while pending home sales surprisingly plummeted to its lowest level in 12 months in January. Moreover, the nation’s construction spending unexpectedly fell in January, dipping to its lowest level in 9 months. Separately, according to the Fed’s Beige Book report, the US economy continued to expand at a modest-to-moderate pace from early January through mid-February, while some districts reported “widening labor shortages”. However, it also noted that US business optimism has cooled a bit in the wake of the Presidential election.
The Euro ended the week higher against the USD, after the Eurozone’s flash inflation spiked to a 4-year high level of 2.0% YoY in February, zooming past the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation target, indicating that the central bank is likely to face renewed pressure to taper its ultra-loose monetary policy. Further, the region’s manufacturing sector notched its highest level since April 2011 in February, as a weaker Euro led to strong demand for the region’s exports.

EURUSD
The EUR traded 0.57% higher against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 1.0620, after the Eurozone’s flash consumer price index (CPI) jumped 2.0% on an annual basis in February, meeting market expectations. Moreover, the region’s unemployment rate remained steady at 9.6% in January. Moreover, the region’s final Markit manufacturing PMI and the services PMI, both were revised slightly lower in February. On the other hand, the region’s retail sales surprisingly fell in February. Separately, Germany’s manufacturing sector activity advanced less than initially estimated in February, while growth in services sector came in line with flash estimates in the same month. Moreover, the nation’s preliminary inflation accelerated 2.2% on an annual basis in February. Also, the nation’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.9% in February, at par with market expectations. The EUR hit a high of 1.0631 and a low of 1.0495 against the USD in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.0530, followed by 1.0445, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.0666, followed by 1.0717. This week, investors’ will focus on the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision along with the Eurozone’s 4Q gross domestic product (GDP), the Sentix investor confidence index and OECD economic outlook report. Additionally, Germany’s Markit construction PMI as well as industrial production data would also be keenly watched by investors’.

GBPUSD
The GBP traded 1.4% lower against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 1.2290, after Britain’s Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined in February, while the services PMI weakened more than expected in the same month. Further, the nation’s GfK consumer confidence index eased in February, meeting market expectations. Another set of data revealed that UK’s mortgage approvals climbed more than anticipated in January, whereas net consumer credit grew in line with expectations in the same month. Moreover, the Markit construction PMI unexpectedly rose in February. The GBP hit a high of 1.2479 and a low of 1.2215 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.2182 and second support at 1.2067, while the first resistance is expected at 1.2446 and second resistance at 1.2595. Looking ahead, UK’s industrial and manufacturing production, total trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate and RICS house price balance data, set to release this week, would generate a lot of market attention.

USDJPY
The USD traded 1.61% higher against the JPY last week, with the pair closing at 113.99. In economic news, data showed that Japan’s national CPI advanced 0.4% on an annual basis in January, at par with market expectations. Additionally, the nation’s unemployment rate dropped to 3.0% in January, meeting market expectations, while seasonally adjusted retail trade rebounded in the same month. Further, the nation’s final Nikkei manufacturing PMI rose in February, while the services PMI eased in the same month. Other data revealed that Japan’s preliminary industrial production unexpectedly dropped in January, while large retailers’ sales recorded a more than expected drop in the same month. Also, the nation’s small business confidence index surprisingly dropped in February and the consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell in the same month. The USD hit a high of 114.75 and a low of 111.69 against the JPY in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 112.15, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.39. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 115.21, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.51. Looking ahead, traders will await the release of Japan’s 1Q GDP, trade balance and Eco-Watchers survey data, all due this week.

USDCHF
The USD rose against the CHF last week, closing marginally higher at 1.0075. On the data front, Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted GDP rose less than expected by 0.1% on a quarterly basis in 4Q 2016. On the contrary, the nation’s real retail sales declined on an annual basis in January, while the SVME-purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose more than estimated in February. In other economic news, Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator came in stronger than expected in February, while the UBS consumption indicator climbed less than expected in January. The USD hit a high of 1.0146 and a low of 1.0009 against the CHF in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.0016, followed by 0.9944, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.0153, followed by 1.0218. Moving ahead, traders will look forward to Switzerland’s consumer price index and unemployment rate data, all slated to release this week.

USDCAD
Last week, the USD traded 2.18% higher against the CAD and closed at 1.3375. Last week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left key interest rate steady at 0.5% and reiterated previous warnings about the “significant uncertainties” faced by the Canadian economy. The central bank further stated that while there have been recent gains in employment, subdued growth in wages and hours worked continue to reflect persistent economic slack in Canada. In other economic news, Canada’s GDP climbed on a monthly basis in December, meeting market anticipations, whereas the RBC manufacturing PMI advanced in February. The pair traded at a high of 1.3437 and a low of 1.3084 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3162 and first resistance at 1.3515. The second support is expected at 1.2947 and second resistance at 1.3653. Going ahead, market participants will closely watch Canada’s Ivey–PMI and the new house price index, due later this week.

AUDUSD
Last week, the AUD traded 0.98% lower against the USD and closed at 0.7594. Macroeconomic data showed that Australia’s GDP expanded more than expected by 1.1% on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter of 2016. Further, the nation’s AiG performance of manufacturing index advanced in February, whereas building approvals surprisingly increased in January. On the contrary, Australia’s service sector activity contracted in February, while seasonally adjusted trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in January. Additionally, the nation’s HIA new home sales dropped in January. The AUD hit a high of 0.7708 and a low of 0.7543 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 0.7521, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7450. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7686, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7780. This week, investors’ will closely monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision coupled with Australia’s retail sales data.

Gold
Gold fell last week, closing 1.78% lower at USD1234.81 per ounce, after hawkish remarks from the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen and some key Fed officials raised expectations for an interest rate hike in March. The yellow metal hit a high of USD1264.90 per ounce and a low of USD1223.00 per ounce in the previous week. The precious metal is expected to find its first support at USD1216.90 per ounce and first resistance at USD1258.80 per ounce. The second support is expected at USD1199.00 per ounce and second resistance at USD1282.80 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Crude oil traded 1.22% lower in the previous week, closing at USD53.33 per barrel, after data revealed that the Russian crude production remained unchanged in February, pointing towards weak compliance with a global deal to curb oil supply. Oil prices failed to find support, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories rose by 1.5 million barrels to 520.2 million barrels during the week ended 24 February, advancing for an eighth straight week, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US crude oil stockpiles rose 2.5 million barrels to 515.2 million barrels last week. The commodity hit a high of USD54.61 per barrel and a low of USD52.54 per barrel in the previous week. Crude oil is expected to its find support at USD52.30 per barrel, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD51.38 per barrel. The yellow metal is expected to find its first resistance at USD54.37 per barrel, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD55.52 per barrel.

Good trades Traders.
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Last week, the forex market was dictated by robust non-farm payrolls report in the US and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting.
The greenback ended the week higher against its key counterparts, after data showed that US employers hired workers at a robust pace in February, thus paving the way for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates. Additionally, the nation’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% in February. However, wage growth disappointed with a weaker than expected rise in the same month. Meanwhile, ADP’s private sector added the most number of jobs since December 2015 in February. Also, the nation’s final durable goods orders grew more than expected in January and factory orders advanced for a second straight month in the same month. Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in its latest economic outlook report, revised up its 2017 growth forecast for US as it expects economic growth to pick up this year on fiscal stimulus plans. It lifted its growth projections to 2.4% for this year, while the forecast for next year was trimmed to 2.8% from 3.0%. Additionally, the OECD projected that global economic growth is set to continue a “modest recovery” over the next two years, but warned that the recovery may be derailed by financial vulnerabilities and political uncertainties.
The Euro ended the week on a stronger footing against the USD, after the ECB President, Mario Draghi, struck a more optimistic tone on the Eurozone’s economic recovery. The ECB, in its latest monetary policy meeting, left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.00% and reaffirmed that it will maintain its asset purchase program at least until the end of the year. In a post meeting statement, the ECB President stated that the governing council is less likely to provide additional stimulus to the Eurozone’s economic recovery. Additionally, the central bank sharply revised up its inflation forecast, while issuing a modest upgrade to its growth forecasts.
The GBP ended the week in negative territory against the USD, after Britain’s manufacturing and construction output, both came in worse than expected in January, while industrial production dropped less than estimated in the same month, suggesting that the negative effects of the Brexit vote are beginning to bite the nation’s economic growth.
Separately, UK’s Finance Minister, Philip Hammond, in his Budget speech, stated that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects UK economy to grow faster in 2017 than previously estimated, but warned that Britain’s economy is likely to feel the pain of Brexit more sharply in the coming years despite showing resilience so far.

EURUSD
The EUR traded 0.46% higher against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 1.0669, after the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi signaled that there was no longer a sense of urgency in taking further monetary policy actions. The ECB maintained the key interest rate unchanged at 0.00%, as widely expected. In economic news, the Euro-zone’ seasonally adjusted final GDP was confirmed at 0.4% on a quarterly basis in 4Q 2016, at par with market expectations. Moreover, the region’s Sentix investor confidence index jumped in March. Separately, Germany’s Markit construction PMI advanced in February. Also, the nation’s industrial production rebounded more than expected in January, while seasonally adjusted trade surplus surprisingly expanded in the same month. In contrast, the nation’s seasonally adjusted factory orders sharply dropped in January. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.0699 and a low of 1.0525. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0575 and first resistance at 1.0749. The second support is expected at 1.0463 and second resistance at 1.0811. This week, investors will look forward to the final consumer price inflation and ZEW survey data across the Eurozone. Additionally, a speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi will be awaited by investors’.

GBPUSD
During the previous week, the GBP traded 0.98% lower against the USD and ended at 1.2169, after Britain’s manufacturing and construction output, both dropped more than anticipated in January. Further, the nation’s industrial production registered a less than expected drop in the same month. Meanwhile, the nation’s total trade deficit narrowed slightly in January. Another set of data showed that NIESR estimated that UK’s economy grew 0.6% in the three months to February, meeting market expectations. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Halifax house price index rose less than estimated in February. Separately, the OECD sharply raised UK’s growth projection for this year to 1.6%, up by 0.4% from its earlier estimate, due to a less severe impact from the historic Brexit vote. The GBP hit a high of 1.2300 and a low of 1.2135 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2105 and first resistance at 1.2270. The second support is expected at 1.2038 and second resistance at 1.2368. Looking ahead, investors’ anxiously await the BoE’s interest rate decision and UK’s ILO unemployment rate data, scheduled to release this week.

USDJPY
Last week, the USD traded 0.66% higher against the JPY and closed at 114.74. Macroeconomic data revealed that Japan’s final GDP was revised up to 0.3% on a quarterly basis in 4Q 2016. Further, the nation’s flash leading economic index rose more than expected in January, whereas the preliminary coincident index surprisingly climbed in the same month. Meanwhile, the nation’s BSI large manufacturing industries index climbed less than expected on a quarterly basis in 1Q 2017. Additionally, the nation’s Eco-watchers survey for future outlook came in better than anticipated in February. On the contrary, the survey for current situation unexpectedly eased in the same month. Also, the nation’s (BOP basis) trade deficit widened more than expected in January. Separately, in OECD’s interim report, Japan's growth forecast for this year was raised to 1.2% and the outlook for next year was retained at 0.8%. The USD hit a high of 115.51 and a low of 113.56 against the JPY in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 113.70, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.66. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 115.65, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.56. Investors’ would shift their attention to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision along with Japan’s tertiary industry index and industrial production data, all set to release this week.

USDCHF
The USD rose against the CHF last week, closing 0.32% higher at 1.0107. On the data front, Switzerland’s consumer price index (CPI) jumped more than anticipated by 0.5% on a monthly basis in February. Moreover, the nation’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.3% in February, meeting market expectations. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.0171 and a low of 1.0073. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.0060, followed by 1.0017, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.0158, followed by 1.0213. Moving ahead, investors will keep a close watch on Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) interest rate decision, due to be announced later this week.

USDCAD
The USD rose against the CAD last week, closing 0.7% higher at 1.3469. On the macro front, Canada’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 6.6% in February, while seasonally adjusted housing starts unexpectedly advanced in the same month. Moreover, the nation’s building permits climbed higher than expected in January. Also, the nation’s new housing price index rose in January, in line with market anticipations. On the other hand, the nation’s seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI unexpectedly eased in February. The USD hit a high of 1.3535 and a low of 1.3372 against the CAD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.3378, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3293. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3541, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3619. Going forward, traders will focus on Canada’s existing home sales data, the sole important release this week.

AUDUSD
The AUD weakened against the USD last week, closing 0.71% lower at 0.7540. Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in a widely expected move, opted to keep the official cash rate steady at a record low level of 1.5% for a sixth straight meeting. The RBA Governor, Philip Lowe stated that global economic conditions have improved over recent months and that the Australian economy continues its transition from the mining boom. He further added that while the nation’s headline inflation is expected to pick up over the course of 2017, there remains considerable variation across the nation’s jobs and housing markets. In other economic news, Australia’s AiG performance of construction index advanced in February, whereas retail sales rebounded in line with expectations in January. Further, the nation’s seasonally adjusted home loan approvals unexpectedly rose in the same month. The AUD hit a high of 0.7633 and a low of 0.7491 against the USD in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.7481, followed by 0.7415, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.7623, followed by 0.7699. This week, investors will await the release of Australia’s unemployment rate, consumer inflation expectations, NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence indices.

Gold
Gold fell last week, closing 2.44% lower at USD1204.64 per ounce, as concerns about an imminent rate hike by the US Fed at its upcoming meeting weighed on the precious yellow metal. The precious metal traded at a high of USD1237.20 per ounce and a low of USD1194.50 per ounce in the previous week. The precious metal is expected to find its first support at USD1186.73 per ounce and first resistance at USD1229.43 per ounce. The second support is expected at USD1169.27 per ounce and second resistance at USD1254.67 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Crude oil plummeted in the previous week, closing 9.08% lower at USD48.49 per barrel, amid persistent concerns that record levels of US crude oil inventories would offset efforts by other major oil producers to cut global oil output. Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted that US shale output will likely grow by about 1.4 million barrels per day by 2022. Oil prices failed to find support, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded a build of 8.21 million barrels in US crude oil inventories to 528.4 million barrels in the week ended 03 March 2017, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US crude stockpiles jumped 11.6 million barrels to 526.8 million barrels in the last week. The commodity traded at a high of USD53.80 per barrel and a low of USD48.31 per barrel in the previous week. Crude oil is expected to its find support at USD46.59 per barrel, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD44.71 per barrel. The commodity is expected to find its first resistance at USD52.08 per barrel, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD55.69 per barrel.

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Last week, the forex market was dictated by monetary policy decisions of some key central banks and the Dutch Parliamentary elections.
The greenback ended the week lower against most of the major currencies, as the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious message on interest rates left investors disappointed. The Fed, in its latest monetary policy meeting, lifted the key interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to a range of 0.75% to 1.0%, a move prompted by steady economic growth, improving labor market and a recent uptick in inflation. The Fed Chief, Janet Yellen signaled that two more increases were on the cards for 2017. Meanwhile, officials left growth forecast at 2.1% for 2017 but slightly raised the projection to 2.1% for 2018.
In other economic news, inflation in the US surprisingly rose on a monthly basis in February, whereas the consumer sentiment index topped market expectations in March. Moreover, the nation’s advance retail sales posted its smallest increase in 6 months in February, while the NAHB housing market index surprisingly jumped to its highest level in almost 12 years in March, amid actions on regulatory reforms by the US President. Further, the nation’s initial jobless claims dropped last week and housing starts notched its highest level in 4 months in February, boosted by unseasonably warm weather. Also, the nation’s leading indicator surged to its highest level in more than a decade in February. Moreover, the nation’s manufacturing production advanced for a sixth consecutive month in February, while industrial output remained flat in the same month, as unseasonably warm weather again dragged down utilities. On the other hand, the nation’s building permits fell more than expected in February.
The GBP ended the week higher against the USD, after the Bank of England (BoE) policymaker, Kristin Forbes, surprised investors’ by calling for an interest rate hike at the March meeting. The BoE voted 8-1 to stand pat on monetary policy and decided to leave the bond-purchase program unchanged at £435.0 billion. The minutes from the meeting revealed that some other committee members appeared to be moving towards a rate hike if inflation or growth rise surprisingly.
In economic news, UK’s ILO unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level since 1975 in the three months to January. However, wage growth came in softer than expected in the same period, underlining concerns that consumer spending will be eroded as inflation rises.
The Euro ended the week higher against the USD, after the Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, easily defeated anti-EU candidate Geert Wilders, in a vote considered a bellwether of populist support in Europe.

EURUSD
The EUR traded 0.63% higher against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 1.0736, after the Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte’s party won over anti-Islam lawmaker, Geert Wilders. The Euro was boosted further, after the Eurozone’s annual inflation climbed 2.0% in February. Moreover, the region’s ZEW economic sentiment index jumped in March, while seasonally adjusted industrial production grew less than expected in January. In contrast, the region’s trade surplus narrowed more than expected in January and seasonally adjusted construction output fell further in the same month. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker, Ewald Nowotny, hinted that an interest rate hike could be on the cards by year end. Separately, German ZEW economic sentiment index rose less than expected in March, while the nation’s annual consumer price index advanced 2.2% in February, confirming the preliminary estimates. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.0782 and a low of 1.0600. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.0631 and second support at 1.0525, while the first resistance is expected at 1.0813 and second resistance at 1.0889. This week, investors would focus on the flash manufacturing and services PMI data across the Euro-zone along with the Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence index and ECB’s economic bulletin report to gauge strength in the European economy. Additionally, Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence data would also be keenly watched by investors’.

GBPUSD
The GBP advanced against the USD last week, closing 1.83% higher at 1.2392, after one of the BoE policymaker voted for an interest-rate increase. The BoE, maintained the benchmark interest rate steady at a record low of 0.25%, as widely expected. On the data front, UK’s ILO unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to 4.7% in November 2016-January 2017 period. Meanwhile, the nation’s average earnings including bonus advanced less than expected in the same period. Separately, the Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, announced plans for a second independence referendum. The GBP hit a high of 1.2405 and a low of 1.2110 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2202 and first resistance at 1.2497. The second support is expected at 1.2009 and second resistance at 1.2599. Looking ahead, traders will anxiously await UK’s consumer price inflation figures, public sector net borrowings, retail sales and BBA mortgage approvals data, all slated to release this week.

USDJPY
The USD declined against the JPY last week, closing 1.78% lower at 112.70. Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), in its latest monetary policy meeting, opted to keep the benchmark interest rate steady at -0.1% and pledged to guide the 10-year government bond yield at around 0.0%. Also, the pace of annual asset purchases remained unchanged at about ¥80.0 trillion. Also, the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stated that an uptick in inflation towards 1.0% will not immediately prompt an interest rate hike. On the data front, Japan’s final machine tool orders advanced in February, meeting preliminary estimates. Meanwhile, the nation’s tertiary industry index surprisingly remained flat in January. On the other hand, the nation’s final industrial production fell less than initially estimated in January, whereas machinery orders unexpectedly dropped in the same month. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 115.20 and a low of 112.57. The pair is expected to find support at 111.78, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.86. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.41, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.12. Looking ahead, investors’ will look forward to the BoJ’s recent meeting minutes accompanied with Japan’s flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI, adjusted merchandise trade balance and all industry activity index, set to release this week.

USDCHF
The USD fell against the CHF last week, closing 1.21% lower at 0.9985. The Swiss National Bank (SNB), at its latest monetary policy meeting, kept the benchmark interest rate at -0.75%, meeting market expectations. The central bank also reiterated that the Swiss Franc’s exchange rate is “significantly overvalued” and kept itself open to intervention in the foreign exchange market. Further, the bank continues to expect GDP growth of roughly 1.5% for 2017 and raised inflation forecast for 2017 to 0.3%, up from 0.1%, on the back of an increase in oil prices. On the macro front, Switzerland’s producer and import price index unexpectedly dropped on a monthly basis in February. The USD hit a high of 1.0117 and a low of 0.9943 against the CHF in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9911, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9840. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0085, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0188. Moving ahead, investors’ will look forward to Switzerland’s SECO economic forecast, trade balance and SNB’s quarterly bulletin report, all due to release this week.

USDCAD
During the previous week, the USD traded 0.9% lower against the CAD and ended at 1.3348. In economic news, Canada’s existing home sales jumped in February. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3495 and a low of 1.3277. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.3253 and second support at 1.3156, while the first resistance is expected at 1.3471 and second resistance at 1.3592. Going ahead, Canada’s consumer price index and retail sales data, both due to release this week, will be on investors’ radar.

AUDUSD
During the previous week, the AUD traded 2.1% higher against the USD and ended at 0.7698. In economic news, Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.9% in February. Also, the nation’s NAB business confidence index dropped in February, while the NAB business conditions index eased in the same month. On the contrary, the nation’s Westpac consumer confidence index inched higher in March and consumer inflation expectations advanced in the same month. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 0.7719 and a low of 0.7534. The pair is expected to find support at 0.7586, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7467. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7771, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7837. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) March meeting minutes, along with Australia’s house price index for 4Q and the Westpac leading index for February, will garner significant amount of market attention.

Gold
During the previous week, gold traded 2.04% higher and ended at USD1229.26 per ounce, as the US Dollar tumbled after the Federal Reserve signaled a cautious stance over the path of interest rate hike this year. The precious metal traded at a high of USD1234.00 per ounce and a low of USD1196.80 per ounce in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at USD1205.80 per ounce, followed by USD1182.70 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in USD1243.00 per ounce, followed by USD1257.10 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Last week, crude oil traded 0.6% higher and ended at USD48.78 per barrel, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories surprisingly fell 0.24 million barrels to 528.20 million barrels in the week ended 10 March, recording its first decline in 10 weeks, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US crude stockpiles unexpectedly fell 0.53 million barrels to 526.3 million barrels in the last week. However, gains in oil prices were capped, after the EIA forecasted that US shale producers will likely raise oil output by 109,000 barrels a day in April. Moreover, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in its latest monthly report, indicated a rise in global crude stocks and a surprise output increase from its biggest member, Saudi Arabia. Crude oil witnessed a high of USD49.62 per barrel and a low of USD47.09 per barrel last week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at USD47.33 per barrel, followed by USD45.95 per barrel, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in USD49.86 per barrel, followed by USD51.01 per barrel.

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Green days

Last week, the forex market was dictated by minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest meeting and downbeat US inflation numbers.
The greenback fell against its major currencies last week, after minutes of the FOMC’s September meeting revealed lingering concerns about persistently low inflation. According to minutes, policymakers believed that the US economy is strong enough to withstand another rate hike in December. However, many officials issued concerns that low inflation readings this year could prove more persistent and as such believed that “some patience” was warranted in hiking interest rates. Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised up the US growth forecast to 2.2% in 2017 and 2.3% next year, both up from 2.1% estimated earlier. Also, global growth forecast was slightly raised for 2017 and 2018, citing brightening prospects in major economies.
Losses in the US Dollar were extended, after data showed that consumer prices in the US grew at a softer-than-expected pace on a monthly basis in September. However, it was the biggest increase in 8 months, amid a rise in gasoline prices following a pair of hurricanes. Moreover, the nation’s advance retail sales rebounded by the most in nearly 3 years in September, driven by strong auto sales, while the flash Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly climbed to a 13-year high in October. Other data showed that first time claims for the US unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest in more than a month in the week ended 07 October.
The Pound ended the week higher against the USD, after reports that the European Union (EU) could offer Britain a 2-year transitional Brexit deal. However, gains in the Pound were limited, after the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, warned the British public to prepare for crashing out of the European Union (EU) with no deal, outlining contingency plans to avoid border meltdown for businesses and travelers. Meanwhile, the EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, warned that Brexit talks were at an impasse.
The Euro ended the week on a stronger footing against the USD. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, stated that asset purchases would continue well past the end of its bond-buying programme and until officials see a sustained improvement in inflation. On the data front, the Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted industrial production notched a 9-month high in August, while the Sentix investor confidence jumped to a 10-year high in October. Separately, the IMF lifted the Eurozone’s growth forecast by 0.2% for both 2017 and 2018, citing a strong economic recovery.

EURUSD
Last week, the EUR traded 0.77% higher against the USD and closed at 1.1820, after the Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence index advanced more-than-expected in October, while the seasonally adjusted industrial production rose above market expectations on a monthly basis in August. Separately, Germany’s final consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.8% on an annual basis in September, confirming the preliminary print. Also, the nation’s seasonally adjusted industrial production rebounded on a monthly basis in August and the seasonally adjusted trade surplus climbed more-than-anticipated in the same month. The EUR hit a high of 1.1880 and a low of 1.1720 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1734 and first resistance at 1.1894. The second support is expected at 1.1647 and second resistance at 1.1967. This week, investors would focus on a speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi along with the release of ZEW economic sentiment index across the Eurozone. Additionally, the Eurozone’s final CPI and trade balance data would be keenly watched by traders.

GBPUSD
Last week, the GBP traded 1.68% higher against the USD and closed at 1.3285, after news that the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, could reshuffle her cabinet and leave out Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson. Gains in the Pound were extended, after data showed that Britain’s manufacturing production rose more-than-expected on a monthly basis in August, while monthly industrial production grew as anticipated in the same month. Further, the nation’s construction output unexpectedly rebounded on a monthly basis in August, while the NIESR estimated UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) climbed 0.4% in the three months to September. However, the nation’s total trade deficit surprisingly widened in August. Separately, the Bank of England’s (BoE) credit conditions survey showed that British banks are planning the biggest cutback in unsecured credit in nearly 10 years over the next three months, following warnings that UK’s debt mountain has risen to dangerous levels. Meanwhile, UK’s Chancellor, Philip Hammond, stated that Brexit has clouded the nation’s economic outlook and added that the Government is preparing for the potential of a “hard Brexit” in 2019. The GBP hit a high of 1.3338 and a low of 1.3075 against the USD in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.3128, followed by 1.2970, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.3391, followed by 1.3496. Looking ahead, a speech by the BoE Governor, Mark Carney along with Britain’s inflation, ILO unemployment rate and retail sales data, all due to release this week, will attract significant amount of investor attention.

USDJPY
The USD declined against the JPY last week, closing 0.74% lower at 111.82. Macroeconomic data indicated that Japan’s tertiary industry index unexpectedly fell in August. Further, the nation’s Eco-Watchers Survey for the future outlook dropped less-than-expected in September, whereas the Survey for the current situation advanced above market consensus in the same month. Also, the nation’s machinery orders sharply rebounded on an annual basis in August, while preliminary machine tool orders recorded a rise on an annual basis in September. Other economic data showed that Japan’s trade surplus (BOP basis) narrowed less-than-expected in August. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 112.83 and a low of 111.69. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 111.40 and second support at 110.97, while the first resistance is expected at 112.54 and second resistance at 113.25. Moving ahead, market participants will look forward to a speech by the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda as well as Japan’s final industrial production, all industry activity index, all due this week.

USDCHF
The USD fell against the CHF last week, closing 0.53% lower at 0.9745. In economic news, Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 3.1% in September. Further, the nation’s producer and import price index recorded a more-than-expected rise on a monthly basis in September. The USD hit a high of 0.9808 and a low of 0.9705 against the CHF in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9697 and first resistance at 0.9800. The second support is expected at 0.9649 and second resistance at 0.9855. Going forward, investors will closely monitor Switzerland’s trade balance data, the sole important release this week.

USDCAD
The USD fell against the CAD last week, closing 0.49% lower at 1.2468. On the macro front, Canada’s unemployment rate remained steady at 6.2% in September, meeting market expectations, while the seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI surprisingly climbed in September. Also, the nation’s new house price index climbed less-than-expected on a monthly basis in August. On the other hand, the nation’s building permits declined more-than-anticipated on a monthly basis in August, while the seasonally adjusted housing starts dropped in September. The pair traded at a high of 1.2559 and a low of 1.2433 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2414 and first resistance at 1.2540. The second support is expected at 1.2360 and second resistance at 1.2612. Ahead in the week, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) business outlook survey report and Canada’s consumer price inflation data, will keep investors on their toes.

AUDUSD
During the previous week, the AUD traded 1.54% higher against the USD and ended at 0.7887. Data indicated that Australia’s NAB business confidence index advanced in September, while the NAB business conditions index remained unchanged in the same month. Further, the nation’s Westpac consumer confidence index advanced in October and the consumer inflation expectation rose in the same month. Moreover, the nation’s seasonally adjusted home loan approvals climbed higher-than-anticipated on a monthly basis in August. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review, expressed deep concerns about the property market and warned that household borrowing is a key risk to the nation’s financial system as it could see households struggle to repay their debt. The pair traded at a high of 0.7897 and a low of 0.7748 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 0.7792 and second support at 0.7696, while the first resistance is expected at 0.7941 and second resistance at 0.7994. This week, market participants would await the release of the RBA’s October meeting minutes along with Australia’s unemployment rate data.

Gold
Last week, gold rose 2.13% to close at USD1303.82 per ounce, amid a broad weakness in the greenback after the latest Fed meeting minutes showed uncertainty on the US inflation outlook. Gold hit a high of USD1306.40 per ounce and a low of USD1277.70 per ounce during the previous week. The yellow metal is expected to witness its first support at USD1287.07 per ounce and second support at USD1268.03 per ounce, while the first resistance is expected at USD1315.77 per ounce and second resistance at USD1325.43 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Last week, crude oil strengthened 4.38% to close at USD51.45 per barrel, after the OPEC, in its monthly report, raised its global crude oil demand to 33.06 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018. Gains in crude prices were boosted after the OPEC’s Secretary-General stated that talks were underway to extend a deal to freeze production beyond March 2018 and that more oil-producing countries may join the agreement. Oil prices gained further, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude stockpiles dropped 2.8 million barrels to 462.2 million barrels in the week ended 06 October. However, the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US crude oil inventories surprisingly rose by 3.1 million barrels to 468.5 million barrels in the same week. The commodity traded at a high of USD51.72 per barrel and a low of USD49.13 per barrel in the previous week. The commodity is expected to find its first support at USD49.79 per barrel and first resistance at USD52.38 per barrel. The second support is expected at USD48.17 per barrel and second resistance at USD53.35 per barrel.

Let´s go Traders.