Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/...silver-at-669/

Matterhorn Asset Management’s Egon von Greyerz Warns:
Beware the Ides of March…


By Egon von Greyerz:

In the Roman calendar, the Ides of March was the same as March 15th in today’s calendar. This date was not significant until Julius Caesar was assassinated on 15 March 44BC. Shakespeare then coined the phrase “Beware of the Ides of March” in his Julius Caesar work.


So will March 15, 2017 be significant. We will soon know. There are some noteworthy events taking place on March 15. The debt ceiling must be reset that day and the Fed also meets to discuss a rate hike. In addition, there is the Dutch election on the same date and 8 days later the French election starts.

In normal circumstances, none of these events would be earth shattering or have major consequences for the world economy. But we don’t have a normal world – far from it. We have a world which is financially and morally sick. Regrettably the condition is so dire that there is no cure for a reprobate world.
$3/4 quadrillion of US risk

A 100-year debt explosion has created a timebomb waiting to explode. Very little is required to light it. As the biggest economy in the world, the US obviously has the biggest debt with a total of $65 trillion. To this we need to add unfunded liabilities of around $200 trillion and derivatives of circa $500 trillion. Thus, we are looking at a total US “risk” of $3/4 of a quadrillion. Many critics would say that this is a vastly exaggerated figure since it won’t all be payable in one go. But that risk is much greater than anyone can imagine. Let’s just assume that there will not be an early agreement to increase the debt ceiling. That would trigger major falls of the dollar and bond markets and probably also the overvalued stock market. The repercussions would be higher rates, higher import prices, bigger budget and trade deficits and more money printing. Inflation will increase rapidly and eventually as the dollar falls precipitously, it will lead to hyperinflation, more money printing, yet higher rates in an unstoppable vicious cycle. The derivatives market which is extremely sensitive to higher interest rates would also come under pressure leading to more money creation by the Fed.


There are major forces in the US who want to totally paralyse Trump’s ability to govern the US. This will make it virtually impossible for the current administration to govern effectively. As the financial crisis accelerates, there will be even more pressures to oust or impeach Trump. This situation will be disastrous for the US as well as for the world economy. The whole process could drag out and last until the autumn of 2017 and it could start in earnest with the Ides of March.

US debt ceiling is a farce
In October 2015, the US debt ceiling was suspended until March 15, 2017. The debt ceiling is of course a total farce. It has been raised 95 times since 1940 and 14 times in this century. Every single administration has totally ignored the debt ceiling and just raised it to accommodate their irresponsible budgeting and spending. All with the purpose to buy votes and to line the pockets of the banking sector.


The chart below shows the debt ceiling and the gold price. There is now a clear disconnect between the credit expansion and the lagging gold price since 2011. This divergence will soon be rectified, gold will not only catch up with the debt expansion but will overtake it.

Gold will soon catch up with rising debt
https://i1.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...61%2C383&ssl=1
The problem is firstly to reach an agreement which will be a mammoth task. Secondly, the increase in the limit required is so big that there will be massive reluctance to accept the magnitude of it. Since 1981, the US debt has doubled every 8 years. This means thatby 2025 US debt will be $40 trillion at a minimum. But with the problems in the US economy that I outlined above, the level is likely to be considerably higher. So a likely increase for the current year would be $2 trillion at least. It is unlikely that such a high increase would be approved which means that the farce will continue.


There is now a 95% certainty that the Fed will increase rates at their March 15-16 meeting and that there will be more increases in 2017. The US 10-year Treasury yield has already gone up by 25 basis points in the last 7 days. This will put more pressure on the US budget and debt ceiling as the cost of financing the $20 trillion and growing debt continues.

Inflation is back
It now looks that inflationary pressures are starting in earnest. The official inflation figures are substantially below what ordinary people experience when they buy their food or pay for their health insurance. But even the official inflation figures are now indicating that inflation will grow rapidly. In the last two years, inflation has gone from 0% to 2.5% which is a 5-year high. As the dollar falls and velocity of money increases we will see inflation increase rapidly. It could easily reach 10% in the next couple of years. That might seem incredible today. But it happened in the 1970s when the 10-year Treasury went from 7% to 16% in 4 years. In the UK, the inflation rate was in the teens between 1972 and 1980. I remember it well. My first mortgage went up to 21% in the mid-1970s. I wonder how many people today can hold on to their houses at that kind of rate. Probably less than 5%.
https://i0.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...45%2C251&ssl=1
The same is happening in the EU. Inflation is back and on the way up to much higher levels.

From -0.2% a year ago, EU inflation is now at 2%. Like in the US, we will see EU rates climbing above 10% in the next couple of years and ultimately a lot higher as inflation turns into hyperinflation.
EU inflation rising fast
https://i0.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...38%2C260&ssl=1
The currency debasement will continue in the race to the bottom. It is difficult to predict which currency will win this race since most of them are worthless.

They will all go to ZERO but not at the same time.

US dollar weakness coming
The whole world is betting on the dollar to be stronger for quite some time and the Euro to collapse. This sounds plausible but it looks to me that the majority will be wrong like they normally are. Looking at the Euro against the dollar, it seems that the Euro will strengthen next and the dollar will lead the race to the bottom.

Euro vs Dollar chart below shows Bullish Divergence on the monthly momentum indicators. This indicates that the Euro has bottomed and the dollar will weaken over the longer term.


Is the Euro about to rise against the dollar
https://i0.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...64%2C270&ssl=1
It might be surprising that the Euro will be stronger than the dollar. Firstly, we must remember that this is a relative game. All the currencies are rubbish since they have been destroyed by money printing and credit creation. It is only a question which one will go down next. The dollar is massively overvalued and is only still standing due to its reserve status. Possibly the Euro will be temporarily stronger due to coming changes in Europe. If Greece, Italy and Spain pull out of the Eurozone, the remaining economies will be much stronger and at least short term, this would justify a stronger Euro. The imminent elections in France and the Netherlands will give us an indication but are unlikely to be conclusive.


Bitcoin has performed very well lately as the world tries to avoid fiat currencies. We have just seen the Bitcoin price go higher than the gold price. This is a meaningless comparison. The total market value of Bitcoin is $20 billion whilst all the gold in the world is worth around $7 trillion. Bitcoin might continue to be an excellent speculative investment but is has nothing to do with wealth preservation. It can only be stored electronically and can therefore disappear when there is a breakdown of the internet, at least temporarily. Bitcoin is very similar to paper money and has no intrinsic value. It cannot be used for any major payments crossborder. If Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies ever become big, governments will regulate this market in the same way as paper money.
Having said that, Bitcoin has performed extremely well as an investment. It was worth $244 in October 2015 and is now over $1,250, a 5x increase. During the same period gold has gone up 6%.


BITCOIN HAS REACHED NEW HIGHS AT OVER $1,250
https://i1.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...66%2C304&ssl=1
It is likely that we will see a similar performance in gold and silver starting soon. The Ides of March could contain many surprises that will act as a catalyst for the precious metals. The attack on silver on March 2, was another desperate attempt to stop silver from the inevitable price explosion that we will soon see.

After the close of the European market on March2, $2 billion of futures silver contracts were sold in less than 25 minutes, pushing the price down by 65 cents. Over 1 ½ months’ annual silver production was sold in a few minutes in a thin market where there were no buyers. Nobody of a sane mind would execute such a trade for a commercial purpose. This was manipulation of the highest degree by a major bank with the blessing of a central bank or the BIS. The clear intention was to try to prevent the major losses that the short sellers in silver will incur in coming months and years. The market will soon slaughter these short sellers.


I have since 2002 been predicting that gold will reach at least $10,000 in today’s money and silver $666 based on a gold/silver ratio of 15. With the coming hyperinflation, these figures will of course be a lot higher. The gold and silver charts below show that these are not unrealistic targets.

The 300-year chart of gold adjusted for real inflation shows that gold is now at the bottom of the range. Even more interestingly, the $850 top in January 1980, adjusted for inflation, would be $14,463 today.
https://i1.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...32%2C380&ssl=1
The 300-year silver chart, adjusted for real inflation confirms that the 1980 $50 top would be $669 today.
https://i0.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...32%2C380&ssl=1
So in 2017, we are likely to see gold and silver reflecting all the major global risks as well as the continued growth of US and global debt. Also, the severe shortage in physical precious metals that will occur as the manipulated paper market implodes will have an explosive effect on metal prices.
But physical gold and silver should not be considered as an investment. Whatever price they reach is almost irrelevant compared to the protection they will provide against imploding currencies and a rotten financial system.


Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management AG

http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/go...urrency-reset/

Jim Willie Issues ALERT: We’re AT THE DOOR of the Global Currency Reset
Posted on March 17, 2017 by The Doc



Home » Gold » Gold News » Jim Willie Issues ALERT: We’re AT THE DOOR of the Global Currency Reset
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-cont...e-collapse.pngSomething BIG is Afoot in Shanghai.
The Chinese Have CHANGED THE GAME Suddenly.


The Jig Is Up.


Submitted by Hat Trick Letter Editor Jim Willie, GoldenJackass:
Something big is afoot in the Shanghai Gold market. It seems that we are at the door of the RESET finally, with China being betrayed by the USGovt and USFed in concerted collusion. The attempt to reduce the USDollar while maintaining ultra-low bond yields seems the final straw. The inference is made that the jig is up finally, and a significant turning point is upon us.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-cont...r-1024x697.png
A contact at Evolution Consulting has reported that his best contact notified him that VIPs are being invited to take tours of the Shanghai Gold Exchange operation. This man was among one of the guests. These tours are not being arranged in some congenial welcoming event, not at all. Rather they are informational and official in granted preview. They are almost surely being staged to inform the opposition that it is all over for them now. With a cherry on top, the VIP guests were required to pay for the tour. The above juicy tidbit was provided by a client, passing the word along. Something big is afoot.

CHINA CHANGED POSITION
China seems to have changed its position toward aggressive in the gold market introduction with gusto and emphasis. Conclude easily that where there is smoke, there is fire, and the heat will be on physical gold metal demand in Asia. In turn the pressure will be put on the USDollar, whose custodians are not honorable and for perhaps the last time, have betrayed the Chinese. Lower USDollar valuation combined with already chronic low bond yield could have turned the Chinese hostile in the wake of the USFed rate hike. The Jackass raises the conjecture (stronger and more classy than guess) that the USGovt and its bankster masters lied to China about a rate hike, and the Chinese are very angry. The sleazy central banker crew defaulted on the gold lease from 1999, evident in 2014. The same sleazy vile crew have used tricks like bank derivatives to create phony bond demand, tricks like Reverse REPO to undo the last rate hike by ramping up to dangerous levels the bond leverage, alongside massive bond default on legacy bonds from nearly a century ago. The fact that a bond is old does not invalidate the bond’s integrity and requirement for honoring it. The criminal central banker crew in all likelihood stole at least $3 trillion in Saudi USTBonds as well, which serve as ESFund core. China has probably seen enough, and will proceed with the Global Currency RESET. Their nation is under stress, and the imposition of the Gold Standard should right their course well enough, even if it derails the United States to the point of entry into the Third World.



London Paul believes something significant is on the verge of breaking the paper gold market.
The clues have come on the behavior of the gold market since the Yellen Fed announced its small rate hike. It was small but significant, and probably involved a lie to the Chinese Govt finance ministers. Such coincidences do happen, but odds are against a coincidence in this case, since so critically important. Time will bear out the conclusion. The Western bankers have a long history of lies, deceit, betrayal, subterfuge, sabotage, and pilferage. They might have sacked their economies on the road to the Global Fascist State, but China has not signed up for the destructive evil development and pathway.

SIGNIFICANT MARKET HINTS
EuroRaj confirmed London Paul’s suspicion and tentative conclusion. He mentioned that such view is absolutely right, given the market reaction. Someone at the Shanghai Gold Exchange spiked the price higher the moment the Fed raised rates, which required the paper market to follow higher. He stated unequivocally that the Chinese do not consider the USFed, the banker cabal, and the US Elite as honest business partners any longer. He expects their harsh clear revenge to follow, with the launch of the long awaited Global Currency RESET to come next. US President Trump visiting the Andrew Jackson grave site was another sign, as Jackson was an arch-enemy of the banker cabal. He survived an assassination attempt. Neither Trump nor China wanted the rate hike. Trump does not want higher USGovt borrowing costs or the added economic headwind. China does not want lower bond principal value and lower USDollar value. Hence the East appears to have burned the Western banker cabal with a paper fire that could turn into a bonfire in gold metal demand. China likely perceived a maneuver to sabotage Trump by the banker cabal, and the Beijing leaders yelled PUNT, game over, no more cooperation.

It will soon become every nation for itself in a global free for all battle. It is hard to imagine the USDollar enduring what comes in an unscathed manner. The global USTBond dumping will continue until it forces the US derivative chicanery into the open with cracks wide enough to drive an armored truck through. Either the US debt market will falter or else the global trade will result in USTBill rejection in payment. At least in the Eastern hemisphere, the USDollar is about to be kicked to the curb, shunned in trade payment usage. The non-USD platforms will be given much greater emphasis. The game is about to change, to enter the extreme danger zone.

Make clear the sequence. Very likely after the Gold price went up in USD terms, the Boyz were forced to weaken the USD by strengthening the Euro and British Pound currencies. It was urgent to keep the Gold price under control in EUR and GBP terms. They gave high priority to keep the price low in order to prevent the public (sheeple) from making a bullion run on the back of political risk. EuroRaj’s personal read is that the London Bullion Market Assn (LBMA) is bust or close to bust. As footnote, he added that the Sprott PHYS gold fund has closed at a positive premium for last two days.

NEW SCHEISS DOLLAR & GOLD TRADE STANDARD
In time, expect an eventual refusal by Eastern producing nations to accept USTreasury Bills in payment for trade. The United States Govt cannot continue on numerous glaring fronts of gross negligence and major violations. These violations have prompted the BRICS & Alliance nations to hasten their development of diverse non-USD platforms toward the goal of displacing the USDollar while at the same time to take steps toward the return of the Gold Standard.

The New Scheiss Dollar will arrive in order to assure continued import supply to the USEconomy. It will be given a 30% devaluation out of the gate, then many more devaluations of similar variety. The New Dollar will fail all foreign and Eastern scrutiny. The USGovt will be forced to react to USTBill rejection at the ports. The US must accommodate with the New Scheiss Dollar in order to assure import supply, and to alleviate the many stalemates to come. The United States finds itself on the slippery slope that leads to the Third World, a Jackass forecast that has been presented since Lehman fell (better described as killed by JPM and GSax). The only apparent alternative is for the United States Govt to lease a large amount of gold bullion (like 10,000 tons) from China in order to properly launch a gold-backed currency. The annual trade deficit would immediately render the entire batch of gold at risk of forfeit. Any such lease would open the gates for a generation of commercial colonization, but actual progress in returning capitalism to the United States. The cost would be supply shortages to the USEconomy, a result of enormous export increases to China. Even if the USGovt can secure such a large hoard of gold, like from Bush Family and Rubin Clan seizures of stolen Fort Knox gold reserves, the United States will be vulnerable from a $550 billion annual trade deficit. Its settlement after one year would exhaust all 10,000 tons, since at $1300/oz, such gold tonnage would be worth $420 billion. The United States is truly trapped in an economic insolvency situation, with inadequate industry and a huge unresolved trade deficit.

Failure to produce a legitimate bonafide gold-backed currency, together with an adequate industrial base, would mean the United States will be confronted with a real big nasty currency crisis. Any new currency, even with gold backing, would be subjected to a series of devaluations due to the enormous trade deficit. The result would be heavy powerful painful price inflation from the import front. The effect would be to reverse a generation of exported inflation by the United States. The entire USEconomy would go into a downward spiral with higher prices, supply shortages, and social disorder. However, the rising prices would come from the currency crisis, and not so much from the hyper monetary inflation. That flood of $trillions has been effectively firewalled off. During the crisis that comes, the gold price will find its true proper value between $5000 and $10,000 per ounce. Then later, it goes higher, as it seeks equilibrium in a new world where gold serves as the global arbiter in trade and banking and currencies.


HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-cont...silver-bar.png
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“Jim Willie is a gift to our age who is the only clear voice sounding the alarm of the extreme financial crisis facing the Western nations. He has unique skills of unbiased analysis with synthesis of information from his valuable sources. Since 2007, he has made over 17 correct forecast calls, each at least a year ahead of time. If you read his work or listen to his interviews, you will see what has been happening, know what to expect, and know what to do.”
(Charles in New Mexico)


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(The Voice, a European gold trader source)

Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at [email protected]

Thanks to my friend Teek he has sent me his technical and other thoughts on EUR/USD for this week.

Sometimes I might come across as saying it is not important to understand technical indicators of all types. They are important however not by themselves.

We need first and most important the Forex Trader to understand all the requirements to become a winning and successful Forex Trader.

There is a reason that only 5% can achieve this GOAL.

As I have pointed out before the formula that I use is as follows;

Out of 100% here is what WE all need to make it into the exclusive 5% group.

(1) 20% is yourself. Unless you are able to CONTROL your FEAR and your GREED and your EGO , you will FAIL. Along with that you need DISCIPLINE.

(2) 20% is having some kind of EDGE as Forex Trading is a Zero Sum Business and the SHARKS will EAT YOU ALIVE so you need the EDGE to escape from their big bad teeth. I give that EDGE to all of you if you care to have it. I call it Money Flow Trading and it works and since it also works with CORRELATION then there is ZERO DOUBT that it does not work so you now have your EDGE if you care to have the PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE to learn it as my friend and associate KeepCalmfx has done. I started this thread on Forex Factory on December 3, 2016 , 106 days ago or 15 weeks plus one day. KeepCalmfx has confirmed to myself that what I teach can be learnt if you invest the time to learn and practice what you have learned using a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account. Only using the Demo Account to learn to trade without FEAR or GREED can you learn. It also allows you to learn how to trade properly because one of the main reasons that retail Forex traders LOSE is they do not use enough Trading Capital to have much chance to survive.

(3) As good as (1) yourself can become and even with (2) your EDGE if you do not have Risk Management you will eventually get wiped out. Some call it Money Management although I think that for most retail Forex Traders that means trading with smaller lots which in the end most likely does not lead to success because the ODDS are stacked against you. so 20% is Risk Management.

(4) 20% is understanding Fundamentals. The two most informative articles thar I posted this morning before this post on page 123 of my thread is what I would call background fundamentals so we really understand the overall situation in all the financial markets which are at the moment not FREE MARKETS. The news that came out on March 15, 2017 at 2:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when the PHONY FED raised Interest Rates 25 basis points while still surprising the markets because they all of a sudden turned DOVISH about FUTURE RATE HIKES.

(5) 20% is understanding and USING TECHNICAL INDICATORS OF ALL TYPES. However there is a BIG DANGER if you use them alone because the indicators are only a X RAY of the moment that they are done. They give you a FALSE BIAS so instead of watching Price Action or MONEY FLOW you decide it will GO UP OR DOWN and when it goes opposite to your OPINION the MARKETS always show you who is in charge of your money and it surely is not yourself as you watch the losses pile up and you panic and get upset all of which is normal so by using what is shown here on my thread you have an opportunity if you take it to think outside the box and change your Forex trading habits.


Benjaminis

Here is a copy and paste of what Teek sent to me.

 

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar557148_1.gif Teek
2. Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Member | 257 Posts

my personal opinion:
My -technical- bias remains short. But I am slowly shifting towards believing my prophet (fundamental analyst who sees it bullish all the way)
The current technical analysis and the current fundamental analysis do not line up for now.
I say "current" because this is going to be decided by french elections. I still think we are in deep fundamental waters where anything can happen at any given time. The french elections will decide the shortterm/midterm future of the Eurozone and this will then paint a new technical scenario that I can then work with.
At the current situation I can not advice any longer term positions in the Euro pairs, unless you gamble on political events and on "Goldie FED-ECB" opposing/supporting these decisions. (my opinion on them is well known).

to be perfectly clear: I do not believe my own technical analysis to be true this week!
Technical D1 says "bearish", but I do not believe it.

my advice:
If you still hold risk in this market, reduce it. Do not add any risk to any direction.
I can not predict what is likely going to happen here. (and it makes me sick)


my trading:
This setup is not interesting for my trading at the moment (almost all USD setups).
On the shorter timeframes we will see some "whipsaw" with lower low followed by a higher high, and finaly a slow moving short or another strong impulsive Long with a break of the EMA 200.
I do not know. Any decent move at this point needs a fundamental trigger. (not my element)
My intraday (scalping) focus is on the JPY pairs and the GBP pairs. We have very good setups on AUD/JPY. NZD/JPY.
I stay away from any USD and EUR pairs until I see higher volume coming in. Last week the JPY was the stongest performer and if it stays like this, this is where the money is.

Chart 1: the clean version
Chart 2: the nerd version (just a snapshot, for your amusement)

Trade at your own risk
Stay green
Don't forget to smile
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1489923444 https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1489923485

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...0&d=1489923444


Truth is like poetry. Most people hate poetry.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2017/0...ding-your.html

Saturday, March 18, 2017
Building Your Trading By Building Your Consistency
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Ym0PQ1R8H...lyBecoming.jpg
Bella makes an excellent point in his recent post: We improve our trading not only by making improvements during trading hours, but also by building consistency in our lives outside of trading. It is through such consistency that we build habit patterns. Those habits reinforce qualities in us that show up in our work.

Just a moment ago, I was starting to write this post when Sofie jumped onto my lap after bringing me her favorite toy, a rubber mouse. She was purring and clearly wanted to cuddle and play fetch. So now I have a dilemma: do I continue with the post or do I pet this formerly homeless cat and toss her mouse for a few rounds of fetch? Of course it's a no-brainer. I play with Sofie. And I would have done the same thing if it had been my little son or daughter coming up to me while I was reading, writing, or working. People and their needs come first. That's what makes me a psychologist. The consistency of acting upon that is a big part of what has helped me be effective when the people I work with have needed attention.

Whatever we do during the non-trading day is training for what we will be like when we're trading. Everything we do trains us for something. If we are scattered and disorganized in our personal lives, we are building those qualities and will enact them in our trading. If we fail to make efforts outside of trading, it won't be surprising if we don't follow through on goals written in our journals. Bella's point is that we become better traders by enacting the qualities in our personal lives that will make us better in financial markets.

In small ways, every day, we can be the person we want to become until, one day, it all comes naturally.

Sunday, March 19, 2017
Seven Training Resources For Developing Traders
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-b4Bmyav4D...Understand.jpg
If you look at successful programs of training, you'll see three elements:

1) Hearing - Having information taught to you;
2) Seeing - Seeing skills being performed based on the information being applied;
3) Doing - Trying out the skills yourself, with ongoing feedback and guidance from a mentor

Think about apprenticeship programs in the trades; the training of military recruits; the medical education of physicians; and the training of elite athletes. All involve acquisition of knowledge/information; observation of advanced practitioners applying the knowledge; and supervised efforts to apply the knowledge oneself. In this three-fold process, we make the transition from theory to skill development.

What we're seeing is an increasing number of offerings to developing traders that integrate the hearing, seeing, and doing through a combination of videos, live trading sessions, and active mentoring/teaching. Back in the day, trader education generally meant someone giving a class on a topic--and that was it! Obviously that didn't help traders translate theory into practice.

Here are some outlets for more complete training and support of developing traders that I'll list in alphabetical order. My goal is not to formally review or endorse these, and none knows that I'm writing this article. Rather, the idea is to point developing traders in a few directions that could prove promising. If I have missed some excellent comprehensive resources, please feel free to let me know at steenbab at aol dot com.

* Crosshairs Trader - David Blair has assembled a comprehensive suite of educational videos and daily watchlists, reviews, and mentoring to help traders apply chart-based setups in real time. Great way to see how an experienced trader approaches market opportunity.

* Exceptional Trader - Terry Liberman has assembled a unique coaching resource for traders. The focus is not on finding trade setups, but rather on building your trading business and figuring out what *your* edge is in markets. Regular webinars and group as well as individual coaching. Great way to think through the big picture of your trading.

* Futures.io - Mike has built a large and active trader community with chat and frequent webinars and downloadable trading tools and resources. Topics on the discussion threads range from trading journals to the creation of quant tools for trading. Great way to learn from others.

* Investors Underground - Nate and team have assembled an active trading community that offers beginning and advanced courses, chat rooms for different strategies, daily watchlists, webinars, and mentoring. The courses cover a range of topics from chart patterns and setups to scanning for opportunity and reading Level 2 information. Great way to connect with a variety of mentors and traders in a community.

* NewTraderU - Steve Burns explicitly addresses the learning process of new traders with courses on such topics as using moving averages in trading and trading with options. He also maintains an active blog and has written several ebooks. Great introduction to trading.

* OpenTrader - Ziad and Awais offer a comprehensive training program that includes a large number of videos, exercises to drill skills, and live mentoring/coaching. A unique aspect is the grounding in auction theory and Market Profile. Great way to approach trading with a well constructed curriculum that moves from theory to practice.

* SMB-U - Mike and Steve have built SMB's training programs into a successful proprietary trading firm. Detailed courses integrate video, skill drills, and a real time audio feed to their trading desk. Topics range from foundation skills to tape reading and options trading. Their in-house training includes practice trading on a simulator, access to quant tools to improve trading, and daily mentoring. Great way to learn hands-on.

Interested traders will want to investigate offerings and the cost of those offerings thoroughly before seeking training. Note that most of these services are offered for active/day traders and especially those in the stock market. If you do investigate, I think you'll be surprised by the depth of offerings and the degree to which information is supplemented with active opportunities to watch experienced traders in action and try out their methods for yourself.

Further Reading: Fake and Real Education in Trading

===============================

Note: TraderFeed will move to a weekend basis of publication starting this coming week, but I will repost popular pieces during the week re: topics that seem currently relevant.
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Posted by https://resources.blogblog.com/img/icon18_email.gif https://resources.blogblog.com/img/i...dit_allbkg.gif
Saturday, March 18, 2017
Building Your Trading By Building Your Consistency
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Bella makes an excellent point in his recent post: We improve our trading not only by making improvements during trading hours, but also by building consistency in our lives outside of trading. It is through such consistency that we build habit patterns. Those habits reinforce qualities in us that show up in our work.

Just a moment ago, I was starting to write this post when Sofie jumped onto my lap after bringing me her favorite toy, a rubber mouse. She was purring and clearly wanted to cuddle and play fetch. So now I have a dilemma: do I continue with the post or do I pet this formerly homeless cat and toss her mouse for a few rounds of fetch? Of course it's a no-brainer. I play with Sofie. And I would have done the same thing if it had been my little son or daughter coming up to me while I was reading, writing, or working. People and their needs come first. That's what makes me a psychologist. The consistency of acting upon that is a big part of what has helped me be effective when the people I work with have needed attention.

Whatever we do during the non-trading day is training for what we will be like when we're trading. Everything we do trains us for something. If we are scattered and disorganized in our personal lives, we are building those qualities and will enact them in our trading. If we fail to make efforts outside of trading, it won't be surprising if we don't follow through on goals written in our journals. Bella's point is that we become better traders by enacting the qualities in our personal lives that will make us better in financial markets.

In small ways, every day, we can be the person we want to become until, one day, it all comes naturally.

Further Reading: Be The Person You Want To Become
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Friday, March 17, 2017
Trading With a Higher Consciousness
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A higher dimension of consciousness occurs when we are self-aware: when we not only act, but observe ourselves in the process of action. Some activities are best performed on a routine, automated basis, such as driving a car through familiar territory. To be continually thinking about how you are driving would interfere with the driving itself. That is the basis for most performance anxiety.

Other activities are not routine and involve deliberate choice among difficult alternatives. Driving on very icy roads with very limited visibility is not a routine activity and proceeding on an automated basis could be fatal. In difficult terrain, you have to think carefully about how you're negotiating each turn, how fast you can afford to go, etc. That self-awareness helps you govern your actions, and it ultimately helps you address the larger question of whether you *should* continue driving under those conditions.

Active trading is challenging from a consciousness perspective. On one hand, there are times when the trader needs to be absorbed in market activity, reading patterns as they unfold. This requires the ability to operate on a routine, automated basis. Active self-awareness can impair such real time pattern recognition. On the other hand, self-awareness is required for proper risk management and for those occasions when the trading path becomes icy, with limited visibility. It is self-awareness that tells us we need to pull back from trading and reassess markets. We cannot pull back when we're on auto-pilot.

Balancing market awareness and absorption with self-awareness and self-observation is one of the trickiest skills traders need to master. It requires a flexibility of focus, an ability to shift cognitive gears when self-control becomes vital. One way I've developed this gear shifting is to use losing trades and days as an automatic signal for stepping back and becoming more self-aware. The losing trades and days may be a sign that markets are changing; they also may signal that we're reading the market improperly. Losing trades are like seeing some ice on the road and fog in the air...we use the change in conditions to become more aware of how we're driving.

Practicing that gear-shifting--from market focus to self-focus and back again--is a great way to develop a higher consciousness in our trading. Every step back from the screens can become an opportunity to rehearse gear shifting and build our capacity for flexible performance.

Further Reading: Sustaining the Flow State
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Thursday, March 16, 2017
Techniques for Changing Your Trading Psychology
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I look forward to the Futures.io webinar a week from today, when I'll describe three research-backed methods for working on the most common trading psychology challenges. What will make this session unique is the focus on specific techniques that you can take away and use to coach yourself for challenging trading situations. I'll also be taking questions from participants and illustrating how the techniques can be adapted for different traders and challenges.

Hope to see you there!

Brett
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Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Using Cycles to Trade Market Trends
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Even in trending markets, we see cyclical behavior. In a distinct uptrend, we will make cycle lows at successively higher price levels. In a downtrend, we make cycle highs at successively lower price levels. Those cyclical movements can provide worthwhile entry areas for those looking to ride longer-term trends. In other words, we can participate in a trending market by going with the trend for our trade but entering countertrend with the market cycles. This is different from momentum trading, where we're looking to buy strength and sell weakness on price breakouts. In a low volatility environment, using momentum to time entries can lead to getting chopped up.

The chart above depicts cyclical behavior in SPY (blue line) as a function of a moving average of the percentages of stocks in the index trading above various moving averages (data from Index Indicators). You can see we're in oversold territory on the measure at a higher price low. This leads me to expect at least a retest of recent highs in the market's bigger picture. Very good short-term trades can be found when intraday flows line up with this larger market picture.

This is yet another way that we can integrate quantitative and discretionary information in our trading.

Further Reading: Trading Market Cycles
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Tuesday, March 14, 2017
Lessons From A Successful Independent Trader
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Here's a great post from Bella regarding a small independent trader, J. Park, who has grown his account to $100,000--and what that trader did to achieve his success. Several lessons jump out from his experience:

1) He failed many times small before finding success - We see this pattern among a surprising number of the Market Wizards that Jack Schwager interviewed. It took experiences with failure to finally figure out what produced success. The success came from perseverance and the ability to learn from failures.

2) He found multiple mentors - I believe this is key. Whether its chess, athletics, performing arts, or elite military, we find that successful performers are mentored and trained. The presence of multiple mentors permits an integration of perspectives that eventually leads one to their own distinct approach. Interestingly, I have known the mentors mentioned by J. Park, such as @InvestorsLive, @Modern_Rock, @kroyrunner, and @MikeBellafiore, to have mentored other successful traders. Think of all the stars that have come from basketball coaches John Wooden and Coach K: good mentors produce good performers.

3) He focused on process - As he points out, we can't control P/L; we can control our trading process: what we trade and how we trade it. The successful trader may be discretionary in their decision making, but will not be random. Successful trading is rule-governed, where the rules are derived from a clear understanding of who is in the market and what they're doing.

There is a fourth ingredient in success, and it helps explain why many successful money managers started out as active, short-term traders. Short-term trading creates multiple learning trials. If you are investing and holding positions for six months to a year or more, how many learning trials do you obtain over the course of a career? The daytrader has 200+ learning trials every year--more if they are using simulation tools, engaging in review of recordings of their trades, etc. That intensity of learning trials acts as a kind of cognitive gym, building the decision making and pattern recognition skills of the trader.

All the learning trials in the world, however, will not lead to a cumulative result if they are pursued haphazardly. The reason we see mentoring as a key ingredient in success across disciplines is that the right teaching guides learning trials toward optimal development. Great athletes don't just exercise daily; they perform the right exercises. That is equally true for developing traders.

Further Reading: Trading With Focus
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Monday, March 13, 2017
Growing Your Trading By Integrating Quantitative and Discretionary Processes
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A developing trader makes progress by mimicking a mentor, an experienced and successful trader. That developing trader becomes an experienced and successful trader by finding multiple mentors and integrating the wisdom and best practices of each. If you look at training programs from medicine to the military, you'll find strong mentors and multiple mentors. We acquire skills and we integrate them: that generates expertise.

A distinct trend in recent years is using multiple mentors to integrate quantitative approaches to trading with discretionary ones. A simple example occurred at a firm where I worked, where several of us developed a predictive model for trend days in the stock market. We examined days that qualified as trend days and days that did not and built a simple model based upon such variables as volume and breadth. The output from that model was then shared with traders, who integrated the results into their own trading. So, for example, a trader might focus on stocks most likely to benefit from the trend by looking at volatility, relative strength, etc. A different trader might use the model output to extend the holding time on a trade that had already hit its first target.

Yet another example of integration would be using historical studies of market tendencies to frame trade ideas. Some of those studies can be found via Quantifiable Edges and from Paststat and from InvesiQuant. Still more quant resources can be found via the excellent Quantocracy resource. Market regimes can change and what happened in history may not be mirrored in the near future, but knowing tendencies from well-constructed studies can tell you what markets *usually* do in a given set of circumstances. Some of the best discretionary trading comes from occasions when markets fail to do what they "should" be doing, as that tells us that idiosyncratic factors and flows are dominating trade.

The ability to integrate new information and styles into our trading is what keeps us learning, developing, and adapting to changing markets. It's when we don't integrate that we stagnate. The most consistent finding I've made as a trading coach is that the best traders find multiple ways to win. Those traders can be successful in multiple market regimes.

Further Reading: Identifying Trend Days in the Market
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Sunday, March 12, 2017
Three Tools to Improve Our Trading Performance
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If we internalize everything that we do such that all that we do acts as training, then it makes sense for us to train as intelligently and purposefully as possible. Here are three tools for training traders that have the potential to shape our future performance. (Please note that I have not received any incentives or compensation for mentioning these. The companies have no clue I'm writing this, which is how I like to keep it).

1) TradingSim - I've long advocated the use of simulated trading as a way of practicing pattern recognition for active traders. What makes TradingSim unusual is that it is entirely web-based (no software to download) and the data are included in the subscription. You can simulate trading any day over the past two years and the simulator will replay that day with any symbols and technical indicators you choose. You can view multiple charts simultaneously, and you can speed up the replay or advance bar by bar. You place your trades on screen and the program tracks your P/L and historical performance. Great way to review the day; great way to practice trading for developing traders--or for experienced traders testing new strategies. One unusual feature for daytraders is that the biggest moving stocks are displayed, so that you can trade what is moving. Longer time frame traders can use the simulation to aid their entry and exit execution.

2) Headspace - Some smart traders I'm working with are using this program and app, which teach meditation and mindfulness. There is research supporting its use, and a blog addressing various topics related to work on mindfulness. The platform is web-based and easy to use, with a guide that walks you through meditation exercises, some of which are tailored to particular needs including relationships, performance, and health. There is a basic foundation sequence for new meditators and also longer, more detailed exercises to build mindfulness for more experienced users. The app keeps track of your progress and structures your learning, so that Headspace truly becomes a workout routine. The program will even send calendar reminders to ensure that working on your head is built into your day. It's a great way to stay actively engaged in meditation work without having to join a class.

3) BrainHQ - This is quite an unusual program and app that trains specific brain functions, such as memory, attention, and visual tracking. It's backed by considerable science, and all the exercises are web based so that they can be accessed from any place, any time. The exercises can be tailored to various levels of difficulty. The program keeps score and enables you to track your progress. It calculates your skill level and sets parameters that ensure that you're always challenging yourself at your threshold. I am not at all proficient at hand-eye coordination tasks, so these are unusually challenging--and frustrating!--for me. One of the side benefits is that the work on the tasks builds not only attention/focus but frustration tolerance. If you're interested in cognitive exercise, it puts you through your paces!

What we're seeing is the next generation of tools to build successful traders. It's one thing to write in a journal and talk with a mentor/coach about trading mindfully or sticking to your best trading rules. It's another thing to actually work each day on mindfulness and actively practice trading with those rules. Taken together, these kinds of tools form a kind of performance gym. Talking to your basketball or football coach doesn't substitute for getting in the gym and engaging in the drills that lead to better conditioning and sharper skills. Similarly, speaking with a mentor or trading coach can't substitute for hands-on skills building. These are great ways to build trading-relevant skills without putting your capital at risk.

Further Reading: Using Metrics to Boost Trading Performance
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Saturday, March 11, 2017
Two Big Ideas That Shape Our Development As Traders
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Suppose we start our thinking about performance with two big ideas:

1) Everything we do is training - We are always reinforcing something. When we avoid effort, we reinforce avoidance. When we work out, we reinforce strength and conditioning. When we talk to ourselves negatively, we reinforce a negative self-image and negative behaviors. When we establish and follow rules, we reinforce self-discipline. We're always training; it's just that some people train more consciously, intentionally, and purposefully than others.

2) We use it or we lose it - What we don't actively exercise, atrophies. If we don't exercise our bodies, we lose muscle tone and muscle mass. If we don't exercise our minds, we lose creativity and we decline in our cognitive functioning. If we don't work on self-improvement and the development of our relationships, we remain stagnant--or worse. What we don't do during our days and weeks is what we will find it more difficult to do in the future.

So now, with those two premises, we can take a hard look at our lifestyle and ask ourselves what we are training and gaining and what we aren't using and losing.

Today's lifestyle shapes our tomorrow.

There are many synergies that can be found in our lifestyle. Physical exercise promotes our health and also our cognitive functioning. Integrating mental and physical exercise, as in engaging in active dance routines, can improve mental and physical functioning better than simply conducting workout routines or mental exercises. As Alvaro Fernandez notes on the SharpBrains site, our daily activities, including how we eat and what we do for recreation, impact our brain development. That is important because our number one tool as traders is our brains, our cognitive functioning. We are either sharpening that tool or allowing it to dull.

So take a look at what you do during the day, during the week. Is your lifestyle the lifestyle of a peak performer? We're always training for something: how we live today is what we'll be like tomorrow.

Further Reading: Human Performance as a Lifestyle
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Friday, March 10, 2017
Exercising Our Brains for Trading Success
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I'm increasingly convinced that cognitive factors, and not just personality ones, differentiate the best traders from the rest. It's not surprising that my recent post on a cognitive view of trading psychology has been the most widely read TraderFeed post in many months. Trading psychology has long focused on emotions as the most important focus in trading performance. The cognitive view says that it is how we process information that enables us to see patterns, understand relationships, and quickly act upon them. Personality and emotional factors can certainly impact our information processing, but all the self-help techniques in the world won't help us if we're not wired for the kinds of trading we undertake.

Can we train the brain for trading success? In other words, is it possible to systematically exercise and build those functions that enable us to perceive signals in noisy environments?

I believe the answer is yes, and I will go one step further by proposing that an important element that differentiates successful traders from less successful ones is the quality of their screen time when they are following markets. The successful traders actively exercise the cognitive functions relevant to their trading while they are preparing for the day, while they are tracking markets, and while they are trading. Their routines act as a kind of mind gym, building such functions as the capacity for focus, speed of pattern recognition, and the ability to translate perception into action. The successful trader's daily routine is an excellent cognitive workout.

The less successful trader might look at the very same markets and patterns, but gets a shitty workout. Their focus is often divided among online chatting, watching markets, taking breaks, speaking with traders, and reviewing their P/L. They never engage in any single cognitive activity for long enough--or with enough intensity--to get a proper workout. As a result, the less successful trader does not develop cognitively in the way that the successful trader does. The successful trader becomes a better information processor simply because they are spending more time--and especially more quality time--in the activities that build perception, concentration, and decision-making.

I'm currently evaluating a brain exercise system called brainHQ, which has been supported by a range of published research. That research suggests that regular exercise of brain functions can improve our processing speed, memory, attention span, and more. I find it quite possible that programs for training traders will increasingly turn to brain fitness tools as a way of helping developing traders become more cognitively fit for trading. How many aspiring athletes would star on the field if they never utilized tools to develop their strength and aerobic conditioning? How many traders can we expect to find success if they're not actively exercising their brains for the right kind of decision-making?

Further Reading: Training Our Brains For Trading Success
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Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. at 5:23 AM

some excellent posts there

Thank you for mentioning my ramblings and hopeless attempts to explain the obvious to the the blind, again.
I just wanted to point out that I have corrected and added my original post that you quoted above.
The link is here -> https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...10#post9682910

The posting above about the rapid inflation is spot on, and I am afraid to say it is perfectly in line with my technical longterm (charted) predictions.
"they will all go to Zero, just not at the same time"... but at increasing speed... you can see it, you can feel it.
07/08 was not a burst, it was a symptom, nothing more. The real thing did not even happen... yet...
Thank you for your good work and excellent posts.
Follow the flow, always

Good day Benjamin & Everyone else.

Thank you for all of the nice reads over the past few days.
As you say the risk is currently on with everything that is going on.
And also thank you Teek for your contribution and welcome to our thread. Your inputs will be much appreciated.

Benjamin you have taken the time to give us once again the layout of your powerful formula and today I would like to elaborate on it a bit.

I think the challenge is to be balanced when using these 5 points which makes up the 100% when trading or preparing so that you can make it into the exclusive 5% group. It is not easy otherwise more traders would be consistently profitable, but it is definitely doable with patients, discipline and determination.

(1) 20% is yourself. Unless you are able to CONTROL your FEAR and your GREED and your EGO , you will FAIL. Along with that you need DISCIPLINE.

These days you will get a lot of information on the internet about the phycology of trading. You can find a lot about Fear, Greed and Ego when trading. I think the best way you will understand this is when trading and you can experience the feelings/emotions first hand.

Snippet from https://rpseawright.wordpress.com/20...ear-greed-ego/

Fear and greed are frequently trumpeted as the twin drivers of markets. I have long contended that there is a third driver and one that is underappreciated: ego. Ego often pushes us to do things we might not do otherwise (and vice versa). Ill show them. I just know Im right. Mine is bigger than yours.
Profitable trading takes great conviction, perhaps even great ego, but one can fall in love with his position or marry her bias to great detriment.
Humility isnt easy for anybody. Its especially difficult for those who are successful, driven and competitive and this business attracts those types of people and rewards those types of people. But humility can protect us from ruin. As Stanley Druckenmiller said about George Soros (in The New Market Wizards : Conversations with Americas Top Traders), Ive learned many things from him, but perhaps the most significant is that its not whether youre right or wrong, but how much money you make when youre right and how much you lose when youre wrong.
There are no absolute sure-things in the investment world. Trading successfully means properly analyzing the probabilities and acting accordingly. Every good trader is going to be wrong a significant portion of the time. There are simply too many variables in the system for it to be otherwise, especially because so many of those variables are unknown and even unknowable
Benjamin has a great way of practicing to deal with Fear, Greed and Ego. By trading on a demo account as if it is a real account or someone elses account you are trading for by practicing your emotions

I am also a BIG lover of Mark Douglas and reading about the psychology when trading. I believe you have to work on yourself each day, work on your mind set and that is also where the discipline comes in to do your part each day. Reading, studying and having the discipline to wait for setups when we have risk off. Over the weekend I have read how many successful people in all walks of life visualize and meditate in their daily routine. Each one of us must find something that works for you, so that when trading you can be calm, focused and sentered.

From Post 1199


Why Currency Trading Is Not For Everyone?

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Remember, you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment, which means that you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. If you have any doubts, it is advisable to seek advice from an independent financial adviser.

Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading

An Extract from the book of Beat the Odds in Forex Trading by Igor Toshchakov, published by Wiley

A successful traders career mainly depends on his or her psychological stability in stressful situations, which are common in the process of trading. Theoretical knowledge can be acquired by reading professional literature; practical skills and experience are acquired in the process of actual trading. The most difficult process is adjusting psychological stress, because in real life it is impossible to completely eliminate the stress factor influencing human activity.

Underestimating the stress factor could play a mean trick on trader and even completely block their abilities to make reasonable decisions in real trading situations. The psychological stress of those trading in the FOREX (and any other) market is extremely high. Traders must work under permanent psychological pressure, making decisions in highly unpredictable and uncertain market situations.

Each trader goes through mistakes, failures, and losses in his or her own way, in accord with his or her personality and temper. Some might blame their failure on markets wrong behavior, which didnt comply with the traders brilliant forecast and caused the failure of the magnificently planned speculative combination. Others blame themselves and their own inabilities to make right decisions in situations, which afterwards seem to be simple. It is an interesting fact that, in hindsight, traders usually find the decision that should have been made at the lost critical moment and can reasonably prove their point of view.

Why can they find the right decision so easily and quickly in hindsight? Was the trader unable to do so at the right moment? I dont think it can be simply explained by looking at yesterdays situation from todays point of view. I do not think it can be explained by the fact that classical technical analysis at allows
for multiple explanations of almost any market situation. It is always possible to find an appropriate basic explanation for any market shift after the event takes place. In the heat of the moment, however, the trader was influence by stress, and that stress caused the error. This is proven by the fact that most novice traders show exceptionally good (and even phenomenal) results trading dummy accounts but cant even come near those result when trading with real money.

Being permanently under stress, a trader can often make insufficiently considered, impulsive, and therefore, wrong decisions that result in losses or premature liquidation of profitable position, that is, in lost profit. Sometimes, after a few successive failures with various trades, traders become fearful of the market. They are in as state of psychological stupor, and even a simple market situation may cause panic. They cannot overcome their emotions or soberly evaluate the current situation, and they are unable to make any decision reasonable or otherwise. In many cases when the market situation shifts against the traders position, they can only passively watch the growth of their losses, because they are unable to make any decision at all. Often, after the market stabilizes and traders have the opportunity to calmly analyse daily diagrams of currency fluctuations, they come to the conclusion that the main cause of failure was not the lack of knowledge or training but their own emotions. However, the situation cannot be reversed. Time has passed, money has been lost, even everything should be begun again.

Another problem that causes severe and even catastrophic consequences is the traders willful thinking. In this case, traders are sure that their forecast of market trends is solely correct. They feel the market cannot and should not give any surprises. They do not consider other options that could be helpful or they think of other options in a vague and uncertain form. Sometimes, traders consider a market shift against their positions. They acquire new contracts at a lower price in the hope that the market situation will come back, and all the positions will become highly profitable. Afterwards, as the situation worsens, they will be able to come out of the market without serious losses. Being sire they are right, traders lose the ability to critically evaluate the condition of the market and accordingly their own position in the market. In this case, they consider only those basic and technical features that justify their wishful thinking, and they discard the contradicting features. This wishful thinking costs them dearly and can lead to psychological frustration. The markets wrong behaviour not only deprives traders of a certain amount of money and often ruins their trading account, but also undermines their self-esteem and their hopes of being a winner in the trading battle.

After such a loss, traders blame themselves, repeatedly going through the details of the unsuccessful trade. They blame the market for the wrong behaviour or themselves for errors in what then seems an absolutely clear situation. Sometimes, the trader-market relationship takes the form of a vendetta. Traders consider the market as their personal enemy, treat it in an unfriendly way (even with hate) and dream of immediate revenge. Doing so, they miss the fact ht at they are essentially blaming nature for changing sunny weather to rain. It is very important to be prepared beforehand for this change. Traders should always have close at hand one or few options in case of sudden change of the situation/weather, so that their foresight assures their good time or good profit.

The third main psychological problem is trader uncertainty, especially when traders are inexperienced in abilities and skills specifically about each market position they hold. Immediately after each position is opened and a money contract is bought, treaders start questioning their choices. This is revealed most vividly in the case of a moderately active market at the moment of fluctuations close to the opening price of the position. Any moment (even insignificant) against their position causes traders to have an irresistible desire to sell the recently acquired contract to limit losses, until it is too late and the market does not shift too far away from their position opening price. On the other hand, an insignificant market shift in the desirable direction causes the same desire to eliminate the position, until it provides for any (even tiny) profit and before this profit does not turn into losses.

Sacred and trouble traders rush and race about. They open and liquidate their positions too often, and experience many small losses and gains. Within a short period of time, they turn intermittently into bulls or bears. As a result, they suffer losses on a dealers spread and/or commissions when there were no significant market changes, and all the market fluctuations were no more than just regular market noise. Such losses are typical for beginners and individual traders with small investment capital or little experience and insufficiently psychological preparation.

Not uncommon are cases of traders impulsive decisions on trading, without any plans or serious preliminary market analysis. The position is opened under an impulsive, invalid emotional reaction. Often, it can be explained by traders fear of losing a brilliant opportunity to earn money they think is being offered by the market at that moment. I have witnessed these attempts to jump onto the last carriage of a departing train, and such attempts have ruined a lot of traders. Many traders cannot calmly watch any kind of market movements. Some of my students have confirmed this reality. If they have no positions at the moment of more or less significant market movement, they consider it as a lost opportunity to gain profit. This can inflict a serious shock to them.

When they have no position, they seem unable to realize that each market movement can be considered both ways, and the opposite situation can quite possibly develop. Statistics show that, at each market movement, the chances to lose are much higher than to profit. How does it happen that reasonable people (who in everyday life, without any emotion, can watch a bank casher counting other peoples money) consider the fact of market movement as a threat to their own pockets? Why is other peoples money in the hands of a bank cashier not considered as a lost profit, whereas capital shift on the market and the corresponding quote fluctuations are causes of negative emotions? I think the answer is in the illusory simplicity of business itself, which is considered by many people as a good and simple opportunity to earn a lot of easy money. Similar notions are widely spread among novice currency traders. The soon traders abandon such ideas, the sooner they become professionally efficient traders.

The most difficult problem for every trader (regardless of their experiences) is to learn as quickly as possible how to recover quickly from losses, which are inevitable in this business. At the same time, they must learn to handle shocks and psychological damage inflicted by the losses, because there situations could negatively influence their future work.

The losses themselves and the fear of losing, both of which permanently torture traders, negatively influence their ability to make reasonable decisions in a complicated situation. These factors also undermine traders ability to follow their own rules about trade strategies and systems.

I have become personally acquainted with hundreds of traders and have watched their activities. I have taught many students, and have had my own experience as a trader at various steps of my career in the currency market. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that the main causes of trader failures in speculative operations in the FOREX marker are without a doubt those associated with psychological trauma the inability to control their own emotions and to find an adequate way to fight stress.

(2) 20% is having some kind of EDGE, I give that EDGE to all of you if you care to have it. I call it Money Flow Trading and it works and since it also works with CORRELATION then there is ZERO DOUBT that it does not work so you now have your EDGE if you care to have the PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE to learn it as my friend and associate KeepCalmfx has done. I started this thread on Forex Factory on December 3, 2016 , 106 days ago or 15 weeks plus one day. KeepCalmfx has confirmed to myself that what I teach can be learnt if you invest the time to learn and practice what you have learned using a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account. Only using the Demo Account to learn to trade without FEAR or GREED can you learn. It also allows you to learn how to trade properly because one of the main reasons that retail Forex traders LOSE is they do not use enough Trading Capital to have much chance to survive.

As anything you learn new in life you have to give yourself enough time to accept this new information, way of thinking that you learn and to understand it and to make it part of yourself, part of your routine. In the beginning it was difficult as this is like a new language to learn, but you will not regret all the time you have put in. Like anything in life when learning a new skill it takes time and dedication.
I still dont understand everything about the money flow, economics, I will never but I try each day to learn something new. I added some attachments, information I found on the internet for traders that don't understand the fundamentals that well as I did when I started +/- 12 weeks ago following Benjamin's thread. (Economics 101 & Interest rates and bonds) One thing I learned as mentioned in a previous post is to know when to stay out of the markets and when you are informed about what is going on out there you have the edge to be better prepared. And once again training on a demo account is key for me, some traders cannot even be consistent profitable on a demo account, so how will you be consistent profitable on a live account. I think they dont have the patient to learn first, they want to start with a live account immediately and start making money but instead they lose money, because as a new trader there is a lot to learn through trial and error.

(3) As good as (1) yourself can become and even with (2) your EDGE if you do not have Risk Management you will eventually get wiped out. Some call it Money Management although I think that for most retail Forex Traders that means trading with smaller lots which in the end most likely does not lead to success because the ODDS are stacked against you. so 20% is Risk Management.

Risk management I agree is just as important, but it goes both ways, if you trade with a certain position size, but you do not follow your set stop loss religiously, which is part of your risk management you will lose. And if you dont follow the set stop loss, it is because you think you know where the markets will go, what I think is where the ego comes in. You are not willing to take a loss. You have to be prepared to take a loss every now and again, we are humans and we dont know where the markets will go.

We have our toolbox that we use, but even when following these 5 point you can and you will lose sometimes, as no trader will always win and as soon as you except that the following trade you place can be a loser and you dont expect to win, because if you think the next trade will be a winner your then think you know where the markets is going and as Mark Douglas says it is a probability game, you have your edge and must take each trade when your edge present itself and your wins and losses will be random but at the end if you have an edge like we have, we can be +/-70% winners. I think Benjamins is in the area of 70-75%. (Benjamin correct me if I am wrong)

I believe if you have a smaller account then risk management is just as important, you have to amend your position size and stop loss to take into consideration the ratio. Some platforms you can use mini or micro lots, you will not be able to live off the profits you make, but I believe you can build a smaller account with patience disciple and determination. After you have learn how to deal with fear, greed and ego on a $50 000 account.

Many new traders dont have a lot of money to start off with and think you will get rich over night by trading. But if you are serious this is a process and you have to make this your business. Part time or full time and all new businesses takes time to see the profits, you must learn through trial and error and keeps on going until you reach your goals and become consistently profitable. My aim is to be a full time trader to live off my profits each month.

(4) 20% is understanding Fundamentals. The two most informative articles that I posted this morning before this post on page 123 of my thread is what I would call background fundamentals so we really understand the overall situation in all the financial markets which are at the moment not FREE MARKETS. The news that came out on March 15, 2017 at 2:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when the PHONY FED raised Interest Rates 25 basis points while still surprising the markets because they all of a sudden turned DOVISH about FUTURE RATE HIKES.

I don’t have much to say about Fundamentals, but I think it is important to know what type of news has a direct influence on the markets and know that this news will affect the market for a few minutes or even hours, so beware. Maybe it is best to stay out of the markets until after the big news events.

See attachment of Kathy and Boris, Top 10 economic events and why they are important.

1. Central Bank Meetings
2. Central Bank Minutes
3. Employment
4. PMI, ISM Surveys
5. GDP
6. Retail Sales
7. Confidence Surveys
8. Inflation Data
9. Housing Data
10. Trade Data

(5) 20% is understanding and USING TECHNICAL INDICATORS OF ALL TYPES. However there is a BIG DANGER if you use them alone because the indicators are only a X RAY of the moment that they are done. They give you a FALSE BIAS so instead of watching Price Action or MONEY FLOW you decide it will GO UP OR DOWN and when it goes opposite to your OPINION the MARKETS always show you who is in charge of your money and it surely is not yourself as you watch the losses pile up and you panic and get upset all of which is normal so by using what is shown here on my thread you have an opportunity if you take it to think outside the box and change your Forex trading habits.

So after you have followed the money flow and came to the conclusion that we have risk of, here it is where the technical side of trading comes in. In my opinion if you have follow the money flow and it is risk off, you cannot just enter the market, you have to have the patient to wait. So say you decide to take a short on the USDJPY, if you enter on the bottom of the chart, the probability of being stopped out with our risk management plan, which is 100 pips or $1000, so be patient and wait for the right time to enter, maybe on a retracement.

Here are some comments from Benjamin in previous posts and the indicators he uses and how it works.

Comments from Benjamin on the technical side, from post 711:
Technical Indicators which includes all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO.

Watch the Money Flow in Japan when the Equity Markets open and Europe starting at 2:00 AM EST in Frankfurt and then 3:00 AM EST once the FTSE and the CAC and DAX comes on board. Watch support and resistance levels. We only SHORT USD/JPY so make sure that it is at the Top of the Channel and look at the Awesome Indicator for VOLUME and direction. Look at Fractal for direction and Parabolic SAR

Here is a refreshers on the indicators:

From post 705:
SAR: United It Stands
Given the mechanical properties of the parabolic SAR, it is no surprise that it is a favorite among traders who develop their own strategies. In trading, it is better to have several indicators confirm a certain signal than to solely rely on one specific indicator, so most traders will choose to compliment the SAR trading signals by using other indicators such as stochastics, moving averages, candlestick patterns etc.

For example, a reversal of the dots from below the price to above is much more convincing when the price is trading below a long-term moving average than when it occurs when the price is above the moving average. Having the price remain below a long-term moving average suggests that the sellers are in control of the direction and that the recent reversal could be the beginning of another wave lower. Furthermore, a signal is considered stronger each time that an additional indicator confirms the same trend. For example, diving into the American Express example again in Figure 3, you'll notice that the parabolic SAR indicator triggered a sell signal (black arrows) each time it neared the resistance of its 50-day moving average (green line). Traders would also take note that the stochastic oscillator crossed below its signal line around the same time as the SAR signals (shown by the red circles). The simultaneous sell signals are then used as confirmation of a move lower. (For related reading on combining strategies, see MACD And Stochastic: A Double-Cross Strategy.)

Read more: Introduction To The Parabolic SAR | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#ixzz4UdIIyZPm
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook

Bottom Line
The parabolic SAR is a fairly good tool for traders looking for a strategic method of gauging a stock's direction or for portioning a stop-loss order. As illustrated above, this indicator proves to be extremely valuable in trending environments, but it can often lead to many false signals during periods of consolidation. This indicator is simple to implement into any strategy, but like all indicators, it is usually best if it is used in conjunction with other indicators to ensure that all information is being considered. (For further reading, see our Technical Analysis Tutorial.)

Read more: Introduction To The Parabolic SAR | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#ixzz4UdIiMFYJ
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Comments from Benjaminis: I expect some comments and inputs from our Technical Forex Traders here. Maybe even We can convince Rockey007 to return as he was a big help and Asset for us when he posted here.

From post 706:
Now I turn to Awesome Oscillator for everyone to use and understand.

http://www.metatrader5.com/en/termin...cators/awesome

Snippet:
Awesome Oscillator
Bill Williams's Awesome Oscillator Technical Indicator (AO) is a 34-period simple moving average, plotted through the bars midpoints (H+L)/2, which is subtracted from the 5-period simple moving average, built across the bars midpoints (H+L)/2. It shows us quite clearly whats happening to the market driving force at the present moment.
Signals to Buy
"Saucer" is the only signal to buy that comes when the bar chart is higher than the zero line. One must bear in mind:
the saucer signal is generated when the bar chart reversed its direction from the downward to upward. The second column is lower than the first one and is colored red. The third column is higher than the second and is colored green;
for the saucer signal to be generated the bar chart should have at least three columns.
Keep in mind, that all Awesome Oscillator columns should be over the zero line for the saucer signal to be used.
"Zero line crossing" is the signal to buy generated when the bar chart passes from the area of negative values to that of positive. It comes when the bar chart crosses the zero line. As regards this signal:
for this signal to be generated, only two columns are necessary;
the first column is to be below the zero line, the second one is to cross it (transition from a negative value to a positive one);
simultaneous generation of signals to buy and to sell is impossible.
"Twin peaks" is the only signal to buy that can be generated when the bar chart values are below the zero line. As regards this signal, please, bear in mind:
the signal is generated, when you have a peak pointing down (the lowest minimum) which is below the zero line and is followed by another down-pointing peak which is somewhat higher (a negative figure with a lesser absolute value, which is therefore closer to the zero line), than the previous down-looking peak;
the bar chart is to be below the zero line between the twin peaks. If the bar chart crosses the zero line in the section between the peaks, the signal to buy doesnt function. However, a different signal to buy will be generated zero line crossing;
each new peak of the bar chart is to be higher (a negative number of a lesser absolute value that is closer to the zero line) than the previous peak;
if an additional higher peak is formed (that is closer to the zero line) and the bar chart has not crossed the zero line, an additional signal to buy will be generated.
Signals to Sell
Awesome Oscillator signals to sell are identical to the signals to buy. The saucer signal is reversed and is below zero. Zero line crossing is on the decrease the first column of it is over the zero, the second one is under it. The twin peaks signal is higher than the zero line and is reversed too.
You can test the trade signals of this indicator by creating an Expert Advisor in MQL5 Wizard.

From post 708:
And finally to complete our TRIFECTA , Here is the Fractal for your information.

http://en.tradimo.com/learn/technica...tal-indicator/

Snippet:
Fractals are indicators on candlestick charts that identify reversal points in the market. Traders often use fractals to get an idea about the direction in which the price will develop. A fractal will form when a particular price pattern happens on a chart.
Fractals are indicators on candlestick charts that identify reversal points in the market.

The pattern itself comprises five candles and the pattern indicates where the price has struggled to go higher, in which case an up fractal appears or lower, in which case a down fractal appears.
The chart below shows what fractal indicators look like on a chart:
http://d1298eg8eju4xv.cloudfront.net...f?v=2037564129
Formation of an up fractal
An up fractal formed when a candle has two candles to the right of it with two lower highs and at least two candles to the left of it with two further lower highs. The following chart shows what this pattern looks like:
http://d1298eg8eju4xv.cloudfront.net...g?v=4029765148
number_1 Two candles marking lower highs to the left
number_2 The fractal over the higher high
number_3 Two candles marking lower highs to the right
Formation of a down fractal
A down fractal is formed when a candle has two candles to the right with higher lows and and two candles to left with two further higher lows. The following chart shows what this pattern looks like:
http://d1298eg8eju4xv.cloudfront.net...ng?v=959100451
number_1 Two candles marking higher lows to the left
number_2 The fractal under the lower low
number_3 Two candles marking higher lows to the right
The fifth candle must close
Since a fractal is a five-candle pattern, the fifth candle in the set must close and complete before any trading decisions can be based on that particular fractal.

The fifth candle in a fractal candlestick pattern must close before you make trading decisions.
This is because the price can move during the time that the fifth candle is forming. If price moves either above the higher high or below the lower low, while the pattern is still forming, the fractal indicator will disappear from your price chart. So you must wait for the pattern to complete in order to make sure that the fractal is confirmed.

Fractal indicators can be used to determine the market direction

Traders can use fractal indicators to determine the possible direction of price in a market.
One way in which traders do this, is by looking for broken fractals. A fractal is considered broken when a fractal has been confirmed and then the price breaks through either the high or the low of the pattern. If the price breaks an up fractal then the direction of the market is considered up and if the price breaks a down fractal then the market is considered down.
The image below demonstrates how this appears on a chart when the price has broken the most recent down fractal.

http://d1298eg8eju4xv.cloudfront.net...g?v=4150039045

number_1 The fractal low candle
number_2 Two candles marking higher lows to the right
number_3 Candle breaking the low of the fractal candle number_1
As you can see in the chart above, the last fractal to be broken was a down fractal. This suggests the market is bearish, meaning traders should be looking for selling opportunities.
The next example shows when the price has broken an up fractal:

http://d1298eg8eju4xv.cloudfront.net...ng?v=424866601

number_1 The fractal high candle
number_2 Two candles marking lower highs to the right
number_3 Candle breaking the high of the fractal candle number_1
The chart above demonstrates that the most recent up fractal was broken. This suggests the market is bullish, meaning traders should be looking for buying opportunities.
Fractals tend to be more reliable indicators of direction when used with longer time frames than with shorter time frames.
Using fractals for stop loss placement
Traders also often use fractals to decide where to place stop loss orders.
For example, when entering a short position you can use the most recent up fractal to place your stop loss.
Traders usually use the tip of the actual fractals indicator for this, rather than the candle itself, as shown on the chart below:

http://d1298eg8eju4xv.cloudfront.net...g?v=2314071736

sl1 Stop placed at the tip of the fractal
As you can see above, despite the fact that there are many up fractals on the chart, the most recent one is used to place the stop loss.
When entering a long position you can use the most recent down fractal to place your stop loss order, as shown on the chart below:

http://d1298eg8eju4xv.cloudfront.net...ng?v=119801457

sl1 Stop loss placed at the tip of the fractal
You can see how it is the most recent down fractal that is used to place the stop loss.

Summary
In this lesson, you have learned ...

a fractal is an indicator that shows a potential reversal point in the markets.
they form when a particular price action happens on a chart.
the pattern is composed of five candlesticks.
an up fractal forms over a candle that has two candles to the left and the right with lower highs.
a down fractal forms under a candles with two candles to the left and the right that have high lows.
fractal indicators can be used to determine the direction of the market when the price breaks through the highest high or the lowest low of the pattern.
fractals can be used to place stop losses.

From post 1324
Too many traders have tried to pick the top within a trend, only to wind up with consistently unprofitable trades.

There are basically 2 types of trading environments, which means that at any point in time an instrument is either range trading or trending. The 1st step every trader needs to take is to define the current trading environment. The shortest time frame that traders should use in step one is daily, even if you are trading on a 5-minute time frame.

How to Trade Trend?
To trade trend the trader needs to answer 3 basic questions:

1. Trend detection - When is a trend in place?
2. Trade entry How is a position initiated?
3. Trade exit What constitutes trend exhaustion?

The use of Bollinger Band is a more accurate way to glean trend, though it is often used for range-bound markets.

What is trend really? The author will postulate that trend is actually a deviance in price. Typically, in all markets prices stay in a range somewhere between 70 and 80% of the time. Therefore, when prices decide to trend they in fact deviate from the norm. That is why Bollinger Band (BB) becomes one of the best tools to measure deviation in technical analysis. The BB formula contains the standard deviation (SD) calculation within it. BB measures the standard deviation of price away from its 20-period moving average. Price action is captured within the 1SD 2SD Bollinger bands.

THESE BB bands divide the price action into 3 separate areas. If prices are between the upper 1 standard deviation BB and the upper 2 standard deviation BB, they are in the buy zone. If a specific currency is trading between the lower 1 SD BB and the lower 2 SD, then its price is in the sell zone. Price candles that exists in the area between the 2nd BB bands are in effect in no-mans-land as markets struggle to find direction.

With the BB bands approach, the trend detection rule is quite straightforward. The author considers the uptrend to have commenced once the price closes not simply penetrates, but closes in the buy zone. The idea behind this rule is that buyers must have enough conviction behind their actions to sustain a rally into the upper BB channel. If prices merely pierce the channel but cannot hold their value, then we do not have enough evidence of a clear up move in place.

The second component of the trade is perhaps the trickiest. Instead of simply entering the trade at market we will look for an opportunity to buy on any small dip into the no-mans-land zone. IF the penetration of the buy zone is so powerful that prices reach the upper 2 SD BB, then we will wait for prices to retrace to the middle of the bands or to the 1 SD band. Why such hesitation? Shouldnt we jump in the moment the trend becomes clear? No. Not if you want trade FX like a professional.

When it comes to trend trading in FX, the difference between professionals and amateurs is that while the pros are trend followers, the amateurs are trend chasers. The distinction may seem like nothing more than semantics, but in fact its often what separates those who earn money through trading from those who lose it.

Where would the trader abandon his position? At what point on the chart will be proven most likely wrong? If prices retreat all the way back to the lower 1 SD BB, then the trader should stop out. The probability that trend is over is very high. Note the difference in approach. In order for us to consider the trend valid, prices must not only touch but close through the upper 1 SD BB. As for our exit, a mere tag of the lower 1 SD BB will take us out of the trade. Why be so slow to enter and so quick to exit? Because, as I noted before, trend is not the common state of price, so price must really prove to the trader that it is making a directional move. Once price cant hold trend, there is absolutely no reason for the trend t trader to stay around. His risks far outweigh potential rewards because he now faces 3 possible scenarios consolidation, trend reversal, or trend continuation. 2 out of the 3 outcomes are unfavourable to his position and the last choice, which is advantageous, is usually the least likely under such circumstances.

Using the lower 1 SD BB provides ample room for the trend trader not to be falsely shaken out of the trade while the price meanders through the no-mans-land zone before it decides whether it wants to continue its initial impulse higher.

Understanding the exits the 3rd rule of the trade may now be helpful to appreciating the 2nd rule of buying only when price retraces. It all has to do with risk and reward. Remember that in real life prices frequently fake out the trade. Just because price enters into the trend channel is no guarantee that it will remain there. If markers were highly predicable most traders would make money rather than losing it. The key to positioning in a trend-based setup is to minimize the amount of losses for the countless times you will inevitable be wrong, rather than to maximize the gains for the few times that you will be right. In trading, trends are the exception, not the rule, and in order to avoid being wiped out, traders need to try to always enter the market under the most advantageous of circumstances no matter what the market environment holds. Novice traders tend to succumb to the lure of the crowd and not restrain themselves from buying at the top or selling at the bottom. The more patient trader, however, who would wait for a retracement down to the upper 1 SDBB, would suffer only a smaller loss.

Quoting BenjaminIs

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Sunday, March 19, 2017 Seven Training Resources For Developing Traders {image}

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As I mentioned before, I like Brett Steenbarger's posts on his blog.

Here are 2 more interesting posts from his blog.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.co.za/201...r-trading.html

How Can We Train Our Brains for Trading Success?

The most common reason traders encounter problems with discipline pertains to willpower as a limited resource. Reading, following prices, conducting analyses, and managing risk all day taxes our capacities for focused concentration. Like any muscle, our willpower can become fatigued. That's when we lose focus, and that's when we are most likely to take action in ways that we did not plan or intend.

An up-and-coming trader recently pointed out to me that he understands physical exercise and what he can get out of it, but has trouble understanding the benefits of cognitive exercise, such as meditation. As it turns out, brain training is critical for success for anyone who is in the business of decision-making throughout the day.

There are two enemies of trading success: distraction and arousal. Distraction occurs when our focus wavers--either because of fatigue or overuse--and we have trouble filtering out extraneous information and concentrating on essentials. Arousal occurs when our bodies go into fight-or-flight mode, generally in response to a perceived threat. At such times, our bodies are primed to act when, very often, what we need to do is think, plan, and respond in measured fashion.

The purpose of cognitive exercise, such as meditation and biofeedback training, is to provide us with greater control, so that we're less likely to fall victim to distraction and hyperarousal.

There are three primary purposes for brain training: helping us relax in performance situations; helping us build our capacity for concentration, and helping us build our resilience to stressful situations. The most common goal of brain training is the achievement of a state of calm focus. In the calm, focused state, we sustain a physical level of relaxation while we are in a heightened state of concentration. When we remain in such a state for a period of time, we experience that as being "in the zone." That state of flow is associated with creativity as well as superior decision-making and emotional well-being.

Biofeedback devices and programs, such as Wild Divine, provide users with constant feedback about their achievement of the flow state, so that they can figure out what they need to do to stay in the zone. Video game interfaces, where winning is based upon staying in the zone, make it easy and fun to practice mindfulness and self-control. When we sustain the calm, focused state for longer and longer periods of time, we achieve deeper and deeper levels of stillness in our minds. Very often, when meditation doesn't seem to work for people, it's because they haven't spent enough time with it to achieve their second wind of consciousness. Once in that state, we achieve a clarity of perception and awareness that is exceedingly helpful for real-time pattern recognition and decision-making.

Sustaining calm focus for increasing periods of time and during periods of increasing distraction and challenge is the cognitive equivalent of going into the weight room and building our physical strength. What we're building is our willpower: our ability to act with intentionality rather than randomness. Brain training is so much more than simply going into a quiet room to take deep breaths and relax. When approached in true training mode, it is our way of building our capacity to enter and operate in the zone.

Training to sustain calm focus and build our capacity to stay in the zone is the most basic exercise in the cognitive gym. In the next post, I will outline more advanced exercises that can move our trading forward.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.co.za/201...ning-flow.html

Trading Market Flows by Sustaining the Flow State

The flow state is one in which we become highly absorbed in our activities, losing a sense of time and experiencing deep pleasure. A great example of flow comes from the drumming movie mentioned in the previous post. The drumming greats are not explicitly thinking about what they are doing, what they should do, or what they should have done. The skill is flowing through them, and they are performing in a profoundly fulfilling zone.


The capacity for operating within a flow state is one that can be developed. Indeed, we can look at deliberate practice as a training ground for flow. As we tackle one challenge after another, we also extend our capacity to sustain the flow state. Flow requires an ability to operate outside our comfort zones, but our limits of willpower make it difficult to stay outside our sphere of comfort. A fascinating study by Judith Lefevre found that people experience flow more often in work than in leisure, and yet they are more motivated to seek leisure than work. She notes:

"It is possible that the higher levels of concentration and activation in flow cannot be tolerated by most people for extended periods of time. In making the choice to spend their leisure time in the low challenge, low-skill context rather than flow, the workers may be indicating their preference to rest from the demands of work, even at the cost of an overall reduction in the quality of experience." p. 317

If the research on flow is correct, then much of traditional trading psychology is wrong. The elite athlete, drummer, or chess player does not achieve flow by controlling emotions, imposing discipline, or basking in awareness of their feelings. Rather, flow is achieved by shifting to an entirely different state of consciousness, not by rearranging the components of normal consciousness. That different state requires sustained, relaxed focus and immersion in experience. That shift of state is one in which we experience ourselves and the world differently. It's also one in which we become sensitive to patterns in the world around us. A wonderful portion of the drumming movie pans to the lake surrounding the camp and the sounds of the insects and lapping water. It is impossible to not hear a poly-rhythmic drumming in the sounds of nature--something we would have never apprehended prior to watching the film.

It is in this context that Campbell's observation is profound: when we follow the bliss of operating within the zone, doors open to seeing the world in new ways. Patterns that are hidden to us in normal, distracted consciousness pop out when we in a flow state. In our normal state, we try to perform well; in the zone, performance flows through us.

Are you trying to correct your mistakes while you're trading? Are you trying to avoid poor trading practices? If so, you're trading in a flaw state, not a flow state. Flow requires a loss of self-awareness; not thinking positively or negatively about ourselves, our P/L, or our performance.

One of the greatest dilemmas we face as traders is that we benefit from following our bliss, but we are limited in our capacity to sustain bliss. It may well be the case that the greatest value of preparation for trading and review of trading is the exercise of the capacity for relaxed concentration. In building our capacity for flow, we cultivate the state of consciousness in which we're most sensitive to the flows of markets.

Thank You Very Much KeepCalmfx

I read all your posts just now enhancing my posts and speaking about Forex trading using your own experiences. I know all the work that it took to do these posts and you have a very analytical mind and you will not only succeed you will one day maybe even surpass me and that would be my greatest honor since trading is about life and integrity and humility and as long as we understand that we win. Trading Forex is a way of life and a winner in life will become a winner in Forex with the right teachings and discipline.

I would also like to sincerely thank Teek whose contributions have been very helpful and by working together in sharing our knowledge and individual strengths the future is nearby and good things will happen.

This has been a very rewarding experience for myself over the last 106 days and once again KeepCalmfx has been one of the most important elements of my results because only when the teacher can teach and at the same time learn than you have success.


Sincerely yours ,

BENJAMINIS VERY HAPPY AND LOOKS FORWARD TO THE FUTURE.

Good day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Here is a nice e-book I got from Davit's thread. the author, Curtis Faith was a member of the legendary Chicago trading group, the Turtles.

Benjamin has mentioned about this group earlier this month in a post if I recall correctly.

Updated charts

Good Day Everyone

I was out of town yesterday on other business so I did not have an opportunity to post on the thread. This morning have just gone through the EUR/USD thread reviewing briefly the 220 posts that I had not seen my focus went to this chart of EUR/USD.

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...0&d=1490086763

Since the FED announcement of March 15, 2017 and the results of the elections on the same day in the Netherlands the US Dollar has been weaker and Gold has been stronger and the topic of this post the EUR/USD has briefly gone over 108.00 to 108.042.

So the question is will it go higher or lower ? The issue here is PERCEPTION. PERCEPTION is rarely based on FUNDAMENTALS.

So how do we know which way it will go ? Higher or Lower ? At this moment we do not know so we should not trade it unless we see a direction confirmed. Based on the real fundamentals it really should not go much higher however the final decider will be the MARKETS led by the NEW MONEY FLOW which will start at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time when the North American Equity Markets open.

Until the markets turn and we have RISK OFF , I do not expect much movement either way however my expectations and what happens do not really matter as we need to allow what happens to be the answer.

The question then becomes what events will happen today to change the STATUS QUO ?

For that we need to wait and observe. At the moment I have on 6 open positions of 2 SPX500 Short put on in the last few hours with 2 DRAW DOWNS of $75 US Dollars and LIMIT OUT SET at $1500 US Dollars and $2000 US Dollars. My other positions are SHORT EUR/USD put on March 15, 2017 and with DRAW DOWNS near $1000 US Dollars and 2 SHORT US 30 put on February 24, 2017 with DRAW DOWNS near $795 US Dollars however these two positions have Roll Over costs now of $358 US Dollars each. I will keep you informed. My Total Equity is now around $500 US Dollars under my starting $50,000 US Dollars.


Benjaminis

To continue on with the subject of my last post here is analysis from Boris...

http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/fea...-1-0800_10660/

Macron Debates Well – EURUSD Pops 1.0800

March 21st, 2017

Market Drivers March 21, 2017
Euro clears 1.0800
UK CPI hotter, cable runs through 1.2450
Nikkei -0.34% Dax -0.04%
Oil $50/bbl
Gold $1231/oz.
Europe and Asia:
GBP UK CPI 2.3% vs. 2.1%
North America:
CAD Retail Sales 8:30
UK inflation data printed much hotter than anticipated pushing cable through the 1.2450 level in morning London trade while euro was boosted by strong performance of Emmanuel Macron in last night’s French Presidential debate as the single currency poked above the 1.0800 level for the first time since last year.


UK CPI printed at 2.3% versus 2.1% eyed while core reading rose to the key 2.0% level from 1.8% forecast. The core reading is now above the BoE’s target rate and was the real reason for the pound rally, as currency markets begin to price in the possibility of a rate hike.

Although Governor Carney and other members of the MPC have repeatedly stated that UK inflation is temporary phenomenon, the policy makers will find it increasingly difficult to ignore the inflationary pressures within the system if the data continues to rise over the next few months.

The UK economy finds itself in an unenviable position of seeing higher prices amidst stagnant wages which is likely to dampen consumer demand going forward. It’s is understandable why under such conditions the MPC may be reluctant to hike rates. However, with UK benchmark rates at only 25 basis points the central bank must do something in order to keep inflation in check. A rate hike sooner rather than later could boost pound and act as a natural cap on any inflationary pressure. The single currency remained bid post news and could make a run for the 1.2500 figure as the da proceeds.


Meanwhile on the continent the highly anticipated French Presidential debate went on for more than 3 1/2 hours, but none of the rivals was able to knock off Emmanuel Macron who emerged post debate with the highest approval ratings. Still the populist candidate Marie Le Pen retains her fiercely loyal base and it now look increasingly clear that this will be a runoff race between Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen. Although Macron leads by more than 20% in a head to head comparison, the markets remain highly wary of the polls given their massive failure to predict outcomes in 2016.


The news tonight, however, was powerful enough to boost EUR/USD and propel the unit through the 1.0800 level, but it has stalled at those levels for the time being and any further progress will depend on dollar weakness as the day progresses.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: So now we know why EUR/USD went up. A Good Debate !!! WOW !!! Very Very Important Fundamental FACT !!!

Now you can start to understand the nature of the markets which is made up by the Forex Traders of all kinds including the ROBO TRADERS who have a BRAIN however NO HEART. Let me talk about the Wizards of OZ. Janet Yellen and associated wizards. We live for the moment in a FANTASY WORLD which is diagnosed as BI POLAR MANIC. We now are at the MANIC STAGE.

I would appreciate feedback and now I can say with more CONVICTION that EUR/USD might soon be a GOOD SHORT however you cannot get exact tops or bottoms so wait for the MONEY FLOW to start. My method is to discover what PERCEPTION caused EUR/USD to go up and what I know then it is easy to decide if this is REAL NEWS or FAKE NEWS !!!

Have A Profitable Forex Trading day and always KEEP IN MIND that profitable means not losing so if things are not right for any reason personal or other than DO NOT TRADE. Take the day off. Go for a walk. Smell the Roses. ENJOY YOUR LIFE because it should not be ONLY ABOUT THE MONEY !!!


Benjaminis

P.S. If Macron had a bad debate then EUR/USD would go down ? INSANE REALLY ....Take your MEDICATION PLEASE>

At my friend Teek with great respect. I just read your post now on EUR/USD and I have copied it and will past it here now so I can share my thoughts with you and others.

 

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1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar557148_1.gif Teek
2. Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Member | 277 Posts | Online Now

USD/CHF sends short signal, USD/CAD more bearish, NZD/USD + AUD/USD bullish.
There's more bulls incoming...
My small 1.07915 short got stopped. I'm fine with that.
1.081x maybe?...
Truth is like poetry. Most people hate poetry.

So !!! First of all , I have started using SO in my vocabulary because next time you listen to FED CHAIRWOMEN Janet Yellen answer a question she starts off the answer most of the time with "SO"

Teek , I can help you improve your results. I say this because you have excellent Forex skills in many areas. If you care to open a FXCM UK $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account as KeepCalmfx has done then my challenge will be to see you have a Return on Investment of 10% or $5000 US Dollars within your first 30 days of Forex Trading. I only asked KeepCalmfx to go for 5% however with your skills I have confidence that I can help you reach 10%. The only thing that you risk is your time and some energy needing to read my posts. (JOKE)

If I had made the EUR/USD Forex Trade that you had done, which I will do right now on my FXCM UK $50,000 US Dollars Demo Platform.

My open position of 100 units of EUR/USD SHORT is now executed at 1.08082 and I will now enter my STOP LOSS at 1.09110 which is now done so my MAXIMUM LOSS would be $1036 US Dollars. That is my MAXIMUM RISK which is 2% of my Trade Plan. I will now enter my LIMIT OUT AT 1.0666 for unrealized profits of $2008 US Dollars SO, my RISK REWARD IS SET AT Two for One.

I look forward to your comments and perhaps KeepCalmfx can offer some comments since that is how KeepCalmfx learned srarting on December 20, 2016.


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

by Tyler Durden

Mar 21, 2017 6:43 AM

European stocks are modestly in the green as gains in banks and oil companies offset declines in miners. Asian stocks and S&P futures rise with Emerging-market stocks extending their longest winning streak since August on the back of the 5th consecutive daily drop in the USD.


The euro rose to the strongest in six weeks after a French presidential debate eased market concerns about a possible Le Pen win: the first French debate was reportedly won by centrist Emmanuel Macron. For those who missed it, last night saw the first televised debate between the candidates. Those who tuned in may be feeling a little jaded as the debate ended up lasting a whopping three and a half hours.

There were plenty of head to head moments between Macron and Le Pen in particular which included much finger pointing and also amusing bouts of sarcasm.

Immigration was unsurprisingly a hot topic while the exchanges also moved over to the economy and various policy measures. The general feeling was certainly one of it being lively however. Markets were largely waiting for some sort of conclusion about who came out on top though and following the debate an Elabe poll (covering 1157 respondents) found that Macron was seen as the winner of the debate at 29% with Melenchon second with 20%. Fillon and Le Pen came in joint third at 19% and Hamon came in fifth at 11%. An Opinionway poll showed 25% for Macron; in both polls Fillon and Le Pen were tied at 19%.



"From the point of view of international investors, this is a positive as it keeps France's position in the euro zone secure, or at least not weaker," said DZ Bank analyst Rene Albrecht.
As a result, the average probability of Macron win implied from betting odds climbed 2ppts to over 63%...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...20/polls_0.jpg
... boosting the Euro and peripheral bonds while pressuing Bunds. It’s worth noting that there are another two debates to come prior to the first round election on April 23rd. It's also worth noting that Hillary Clinton was seen as the comfortable winner in all the US Presidential debates.


Taking a cue from the debate polling which showed Macron as the most convincing, German bonds slid from the open, with French election risks seen waning.

Losses extended in bunds after stronger-than-expected U.K. inflation data pressured gilts lower, with 10y U.K. yields climbing by around 6bps. MPC-dated SONIA rate jumps to price in almost one full hike by August 2018. The easing of French election risk has firmed rate-hike expectations for the ECB. Euribor strip has bear steepened from the open, with market pricing now showing over 20bps of rate increases priced by Sept. 2018.

ECB rate expectations have seen the 5y sector on the German curve underperform, now cheaper by around 2bps on the 2s5s10s fly. French bonds meanwhile opened higher after the debate, with 10y yields dropping as much as 4bps. The move was quickly faded, as has been repeatedly observed in similar bouts of optimism around the French election. OATs now little changed.

The biggest winner, however, was the Euro, which rose to just shy of 1.08, the strongest in more than a month.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...D%203.21_0.jpg
“When you consider how many people have been worried about this election and how cheap the euro is, if that risk were to go away then there’s the potential for money to flow into Europe,” said Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley in London. “That would be another form of volatility. There’s always a risk of large moves when valuations are extreme -- and the euro is quite cheap.”


The dollar index fell below 100 for the first time since early February and was down almost half a percent on the day. The currency was on the defensive after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans reinforced the perception that the U.S. central bank will not accelerate the pace of its interest rate hikes. He said on Monday that two more interest rate hikes this year were likely, disappointing investors who had anticipated rates would be increased more quickly.

The greenback is on its longest losing streak since November after the Federal Reserve’s dovish message on the speed of monetary tightening last week.

European stock markets opened higher after a rally in Asia, where MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit 21-month highs. U.S. stock futures pointed to a positive start for Wall Street, which had suffered on Monday as investors worried that President Donald Trump's plan to cut taxes and boost the economy would take longer than expected to realize.

South Korea led gains among Asian emerging markets, with the Kospi jumping 1 percent to the highest since July 2011. Hyundai Motor Co. climbed 8.6 percent amid market speculation over a possible stake purchase by Elliott Management. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added less than 0.1 percent at 9:48 a.m. in London. Banking stocks outperformed, led by Italian and French lenders, as worries over the French presidential election further abated. Mining stocks lost ground, trimming recent sharp gains. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent. The benchmark gauge fell 0.2 percent on Monday.


The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell to two-week lows following the comments to 2.461 percent. It last stood at 2.48%. Oil prices rallied on expectations that an OPEC-led production cut to prop up the market could be extended. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil, gained 1 percent to $52.13 per barrel. OPEC members increasingly favor extending the output curb beyond June to balance the market, sources within the group said, although they added this would require non-OPEC members such as Russia to also step up their efforts.

Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank was in focus as the subscription period for a capital raising began on Tuesday. Also today, Nike, FedEx, and General Mills are among companies scheduled to publish results
* * *
Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

1. Sentiment in Europe received a lift from the open as participants reacted to a perceived strong performance from Macron in last night's French presidential debate.
2. GBP ramps higher after inflation rises to the highest level since Sep'13
3. Looking ahead, focus will Canadian retail sales, API crude report as well as comments from Fed's George and Mester.

Market Snapshot

1. S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2373.5
2. STOXX Europe 600 up less than 0.1% to 378
3. MXAP up 0.1% to 149
4. MXAPJ up 0.3% to 483.23
5. Nikkei down 0.3% to 19,455.88
6. Topix down 0.2% to 1,563.42
7. Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 24,593.12
8. Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,261.61
9. Sensex down 0.3% to 29,432.19
10. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.07% to 5,774.62
11. Kospi up 1% to 2,178.38
12. German 10Y yield rose 2.8 bps to 0.468%
13. Euro up 0.5% to 1.0795 per US$
14. Brent Futures up 0.9% to $52.06/bbl
15. Italian 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 2.364%
16. Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.843%
17. Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,229.24
18. U.S. Dollar Index down 0.4% to 100.01

Top Overnight News from BBG

1. PPG Said to Ready New Akzo Offer After Failed $22.4 Billion Bid
2. Fed’s Dudley Says Wells Fargo Shows Bank Culture Needs Improving
3. Google Overhauls Policies After Uproar Over YouTube Videos
4. Deutsche Bank Said to Face Regulatory Fines Over Currency Trades
5. Mideast Airlines Say New U.S. Restrictions Will Force Changes
6. BlackRock Likes Property Even After Yellen Calls Prices ‘High’
7. BMW Sees 2017 Profit Rising Slightly as Spending Exceeds Target
8. Banking Panel Senators Make Bipartisan Call for Growth Proposals
9. Baidu’s iQiyi Signs Pact With Warner Bros. on Movie Rights
10. Chevron Says New LNG Projects Unlikely in West Australia
11. NYSE Says It Has Identified, Fixed Cause of Arca Disruption

In Asian Markets, the major equity indices traded somewhat mixed following a similar lead from Wall St., where financials underperformed and participants were indecisive amid a lack of tier-1 data releases. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was dampened by weakness in telecoms and underperformance in the financial sector, while Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) lagged on return from an extended weekend, although downside was stemmed as USD/JPY nursed losses. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were kept afloat following the continued liquidity operations by the PBoC which resulted in a 2nd day of net injections. Finally, 10 year JGBs traded higher amid a dampened risk tone in Japan and with the BoJ present in the market for a total JPY 1.15tIn of JGBs ranging from 1-10yr maturities. PBoC injected CNY 50bIn 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bIn in 28-day reverse repos
Top Asian News

1. SoftBank Is Said to Invest in WeWork at $17 Billion Valuation
2. Downer Makes A$1.26 Billion Takeover Offer for Spotless
3. McDonald’s China Says It’s Not Affected by Ban on Brazil Meat
4. Billionaire Damani’s Avenue Supermarts Shares Double on Debut
5. Modi-Backed ETF May Fuel India Sales After $1.4 Billion Haul
6. China H Shares Rise to Highest Since 2015; Power Producers Gain
7. M1 Bids May Not Come Above S$2.20/Share, Religare’s Jin Says
8. India’s HPCL to Use Honeywell Clean-Fuel Technology
9. Freeport Indonesia Restarts Copper Concentrate Mill: Spokesman

European risk sentiment received a lift from the open as participants reacted to a perceived strong performance from Macron in last night's French presidential debate. As such European equities opened higher, with Euro Stoxx 50 spending much of the session higher by around 0.5%. On a sector breakdown, financials are among the best performers as Deutsche Bank trades higher on the session after going ex-subscription to their capital raising plans. Elsewhere Akzo Nobel are among the best performers on a stock specific basis as M&A news continues to circulate, with pre-market reports today suggesting PPG is preparing a renewed takeover offer for the Co. The notable data of the session, came in the form of UK CPI, with the higher than exp. reading (Y/Y 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.1%) seeing gilts underperform and sending GBP/USD towards 1.2450. The GBP strength has further exacerbated pressure on the USD, with the USD-index slipping below 100, while the French presidential election saw EUR/USD touch 1.0800. Fixed income markets have been pressured by the aforementioned risk on sentiment, with Bunds down 35 ticks on the session, while OATs saw a paring of some of their initial losses in the wake of reports that PM Cazeneuve asked govt. members not to back Macron.
Top European News

1. EU Makes U.K. Wait to Start Brexit Talks as Trigger Date Set
2. Macron on Top After First Debate of French Presidential Election
3. Porsche SE Posts Profit as Owner Clan Plans to Buy Out Piech
4. Swiss Watch Slump Extends Record Decline as U.S. Exports Slide
5. Fingerprint Cards Withdraws Dividend Plan as Revenue Plummets
6. Abertis Gives Information on Ruling on AP-7 Accounting Treatment
7. Swedish Casino Company Takes Breather From Deals to Drive Growth
8. Poland Needs Innovation to Catch Up With West, World Bank Says

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped by 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent drop Tuesday. The euro was up by 0.5 percent at $1.0796, while it rose versus all of its G-10 peers. The British pound traded 0.7 percent higher after data showed U.K. inflation rose faster than expected. The main mover of the morning has been GBP, which had been trending higher ahead of the inflation report to trip above 1.2400. In the wake of the release, GBP continued its ascension after CPI beat expectations, subsequently stoking expectations that the overshoot will force the Bank of England to act through potentially hiking rates, as such, a 25bps hike is now fully priced in by Aug'18. Elsewhere, a reassuring performance from Macron in the first presidential TV debate has buoyed EUR, with the currency touching 1.08 against the greenback. RBA minutes from Mar 7th meeting stated that it judged steady policy was consistent with growth and inflation targets and that rising AUD/USD would complicate economic transition. RBA also stated that economic growth is to accelerate gradually to above potential over the next 2 years and higher commodity prices could last longer than first thought given the stronger global demand.
In commodities, West Texas Intermediate oil climbed 0.8 percent to $48.60 before U.S. inventory data on Wednesday and as Libya prepared to restart crude
shipments from major ports. Copper slumped 0.7 percent amid signs supplies are returning; disruptions caused the metal to surge last month to the highest level since 2015; prices slipped after reports that the union for workers on strike at the BHP Billiton Escondida copper mine held talks with the company and also coincided with a 4% drop in Dalian iron ore futures during Asian trade. Gold (-0.4%) prices pulled back from 2 week highs after four days of gains, while the softness in the USD index has supported oil prices with Brent futures above USD 52/bbl and WTI above USD 49/bbl ahead of the API inventories after market.
Looking at the day ahead, in the US the diary remains sparse with just the Q4 current account balance reading expected. Away from the data this morning we are expected to hear from the Fed’s Dudley and BoE’s Carney at a bank ethics event in London, while this afternoon we are due to hear from the Fed’s George and then this evening the Fed’s Mester is due to speak. The EU finance ministers meeting will also continue in Brussels this morning.
US Event Calendar

1. 8:30am: Current Account Balance, est. $129.0b deficit, prior $113.0b deficit

Central Banks

1. 6:35am: Fed’s Dudley, BOE’s Carney Speak at Bank Ethics London Event
2. 12pm: Fed’s George Speaks in Washington on U.S. Economy and the Fed
3. 6pm: Fed’s Mester Speaks at University of Richmond
4. 9:45pm: Boston Fed Rosengren Speaks in Bali at Asia-Pacific Meeting

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Will France wake up this morning feeling more confident about the upcoming Presidential race? Well last night saw the first televised debate between the candidates. Those who tuned in may be feeling a little jaded as the debate ended up lasting a whopping three and a half hours. There were plenty of head to head moments between Macron and Le Pen in particular which included much finger pointing and also amusing bouts of sarcasm. Immigration was unsurprisingly a hot topic while the exchanges also moved over to the economy and various policy measures. The general feeling was certainly one of it being lively however. Markets were largely waiting for some sort of conclusion about who came out on top though and following the debate an Elabe poll (covering 1157 respondents) found that Macron was seen as the winner of the debate at 29% with Melenchon second with 20%. Fillon and Le Pen came in joint third at 19% and Hamon came in fifth at 11%. It’s worth noting that there are another two debates to come prior to the first round election on April 23rd. It's also worth noting that Hillary Clinton was seen as the comfortable winner in all the US Presidential debates.


Prior to the outcome from that poll the Euro did touch as low as 1.072 overnight versus the US Dollar but bounced post the news and hit a high of 1.078, or up just under half a percent with the market seemingly comforted that the debate failed to yield any further support to Le Pen’s chances. The Euro is now sitting at 1.076 as we go to print. Meanwhile equity markets are once again a bit mixed. Having been closed on Monday bourses in Japan are open again with the Nikkei currently -0.27%. The ASX (-0.16%) is also down however there are small gains for the Hang Seng (+0.31%), Shanghai Comp (+0.19%) and more notably the Kospi (+1.02%). US equity index futures are also up about +0.20% while Gold is -0.57% so suggesting a slightly more positive environment for risk at the margin this morning.


While we’re on France, we thought it would be worth highlighting a report published by our colleagues yesterday in Europe summarising the results of their recently conducted global cross asset survey about investors’ views of asset returns one week after the French presidential election. They summarise that a Le Pen or a Left win is, perhaps unsurprisingly, strongly associated with Negative or Very Negative risk asset outcomes. A Centre win is mainly associated with Positive (but not Very Positive) outcomes, suggesting investors remain cautious about the economic environment, regardless of outcome. Many investors are neutrally positioned, but of non-neutral investors there is a distinct tilt towards long volatility and long hedges. A negative outcome is largely associated with high equity vol and sharp equity falls. In a positive outcome, the majority expectation is for limited equity upside only; however, we highlight a notable tail of expectations in the highly positive scenario, i.e. for very low vol and large equity upside. In rates the dominant expectation is for stable / higher yields regardless of election outcome. FX markets show a more bearish tilt, with EURUSD below parity in a negative outcome. In addition, upside is more limited – only 26% of respondents see EUR/USD above 1.10 in a positive outcome.


Moving on. In what was an otherwise very quiet day for the most part yesterday, it was the chorus of Fedspeak which markets were most concentrated on. Of particular focus was the Chicago Fed’s Evans who made the case for the Fed hiking 2 or 3 more times this year. Evans also said that he expects inflation to hit 2% in 2018 and that things are “much more balanced around the outlook” than they were two years ago. The Philadelphia Fed President Harker also spoke and said that he expects the Fed to overshoot the 2% inflation target “a little bit” and that he would not rule out a faster or slower pace of hikes in 2017 than the three he has projected so far. Finally there was a much more dovish angle to the Fedspeak yesterday too with Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also speaking. He said that “we do not have a high inflation threat right around the corner” and that ‘I’d be very surprised if core inflation reaches 2% this year”. He also said that “the data are basically moving sideways, so I’m asking, what’s the rush to raise rates”.


Aside from the Fedspeak, there wasn’t a huge amount more for markets to feed off aside from some political related stories. The G-20 news from the weekend came and went however a lot of the focus was on the news that the FBI has confirmed that it is conducting a broad inquiry into a possible link between President Trump’s presidential campaign in 2016 and Russia. Meanwhile here in the UK we got the confirmation that PM Theresa May will trigger Article 50 on March 29th and so officially starting the clock on negotiations. The European Council President Donald Tusk confirmed that he will present the draft Brexit guidelines to the EU27 members states within 48 hours. It’s worth noting also that a provisional plan for the EU to hold a summit on April 6th to discuss early negotiation plans has been pushed back to late April/early May, all of which obviously eats into PM May’s negotiating time frame.


Over in markets the end result of all the Fedspeak and various political related headlines was a very modest risk off start to the week. The S&P 500 ended -0.20% by the closing bell and so confirming a third consecutive daily decline following last Wednesday’s big post-FOMC rally. The Stoxx 600 (-0.17%) was down a similar amount and fell for the first time since last Tuesday. The exception was once again in EM however where the MSCI EM index (+0.70%) rose for the seventh consecutive session. In government bonds 10y Treasury yields dipped 4bps to 2.462% and are now down to the lowest yield since March 6th having touched an intraday high of 2.628% a week ago. In Europe bond markets didn’t really do much although Greek bonds were a bit weaker after Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem said at a finance minister’s meeting that “some key issues” still remain to be sorted out between Greece and its creditors and that talks will continue and intensify in coming days.


Moving on. Yesterday’s data was fairly thin on the ground. In the US the sole release was the Chicago Fed national activity index which came in at a better than expected 0.34 in February (vs. 0.03 expected) and in doing so has pushed the three-month average up to 0.24 which is the highest since December 2014. In Germany PPI was reported as rising +0.2% mom in February which was a little less than expected. Meanwhile in the UK the Rightmove index of house prices showed prices as stable at +2.3% yoy in March. The other data concerned the latest weekly ECB CSPP holdings where the average daily run rate last week of €363m more or less matched the average €367m since the program started.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the focus will be on the UK where we will get the February CPI/RPI/PPI data (with headline CPI expected come in at +0.5% mom and headline RPI at +0.8% mom). We will also get the February public sector net borrowing data in the UK and then the March CBI industrial trends survey. This afternoon in the US the diary remains sparse with just the Q4 current account balance reading expected. Away from the data this morning we are expected to hear from the Fed’s Dudley and BoE’s Carney at a bank ethics event in London, while this afternoon we are due to hear from the Fed’s George and then this evening the Fed’s Mester is due to speak. The EU finance ministers meeting will also continue in Brussels this morning.

JUST FOR THE RECORD , Ladies and Gentleman , Teek included...

Once you get to my high level of Forex trading you have the right to take profits, when they feel right.

I will first copy my first post this morning and paste it again here and then share with everyone what I just did since my post was done earlier this morning.

At my friend Teek with great respect. I just read your post now on EUR/USD and I have copied it and will past it here now so I can share my thoughts with you and others.

 

1. Post 1,098,054
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Last Post: Mar 21, 6:58am (5 min ago)

 

1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...ar557148_1.gif Teek
2. Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Member | 277 Posts | Online Now

USD/CHF sends short signal, USD/CAD more bearish, NZD/USD + AUD/USD bullish.
There's more bulls incoming...
My small 1.07915 short got stopped. I'm fine with that.
1.081x maybe?...
Truth is like poetry. Most people hate poetry.

So !!! First of all , I have started using SO in my vocabulary because next time you listen to FED CHAIRWOMEN Janet Yellen answer a question she starts off the answer most of the time


Benjaminis


Good Day Everyone

I was out of town yesterday on other business so I did not have an opportunity to post on the thread. This morning have just gone through the EUR/USD thread reviewing briefly the 220 posts that I had not seen my focus went to this chart of EUR/USD.

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...0&d=1490086763

Since the FED announcement of March 15, 2017 and the results of the elections on the same day in the Netherlands the US Dollar has been weaker and Gold has been stronger and the topic of this post the EUR/USD has briefly gone over 108.00 to 108.042.

So the question is will it go higher or lower ? The issue here is PERCEPTION. PERCEPTION is rarely based on FUNDAMENTALS.

So how do we know which way it will go ? Higher or Lower ? At this moment we do not know so we should not trade it unless we see a direction confirmed. Based on the real fundamentals it really should not go much higher however the final decider will be the MARKETS led by the NEW MONEY FLOW which will start at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time when the North American Equity Markets open.

Until the markets turn and we have RISK OFF , I do not expect much movement either way however my expectations and what happens do not really matter as we need to allow what happens to be the answer.

The question then becomes what events will happen today to change the STATUS QUO ?

For that we need to wait and observe. At the moment I have on 6 open positions of 2 SPX500 Short put on in the last few hours with 2 DRAW DOWNS of $75 US Dollars and LIMIT OUT SET at $1500 US Dollars and $2000 US Dollars. My other positions are SHORT EUR/USD put on March 15, 2017 and with DRAW DOWNS near $1000 US Dollars and 2 SHORT US 30 put on February 24, 2017 with DRAW DOWNS near $795 US Dollars however these two positions have Roll Over costs now of $358 US Dollars each. I will keep you informed. My Total Equity is now around $500 US Dollars under my starting $50,000 US Dollars.


At 5:58 AM Eastern Standard Time this morning I decided to put on two positions of 100 units of SPX500 Short. My two positions were entered at 2377.83 and I just closed them at 10:30 AM and 10:31 AM at a locked in profit of $1125 US Dollars and $1150 US Dollars. Even though there was no real movements today by going in with two more positions of SPX500 SHORT and I have banked $2275 US Dollars in profit without the need to scalp and with limited risk under the circumstances. One of my Forex Trade Plans is SHORT maximum 3 positions of 100 units for MAXIMUM RISK of 6%.

That is what I have just done and I was very happy to take the profits because you can NEVER lose by taking good profits and NOT BE GREEDY.

The EQUITY IN MY ACCOUNT at the Moment with 5 open positions is NOW $53,186.66 US Dollars a substantial increase from earlier this morning.


Benjaminis

I have many other things on my mind today aside from trading Forex however I did PUT all my focus in my Forex trading since I have active live positions. Since my last post I have decided to CLOSE ALL MY OPEN POSITIONS including the two oldest ones that I put on February 24, 2017 which was 25 days ago. As I have already stated my Roll Over Costs were $358 US Dollars for each of these 2 open positions of 100 units. I am very happy to announce that at 10:59 AM this morning that I closed these two positions for a Gross Profit of $695 and $710 US Dollars so my Total Net closed profit is $689 US Dollars. I have taken my LOSS in my three EUR/USD Positions of a NET TOTAL of $2618.60 US DOLLARS and VOILA now with everything now in cash and having closed all my 9 open positions my CASH BALANCE is at $54,349.66 US DOLLARS and since my EGO is on a HIGH this morning , I will not trade for the REST of Today as my Profits for today was $3119.40 US Dollars.


Benjaminis

Here is a summary of my account opened on February 24, 2017 and in 25 days the ROI is above 8% !!!

Beginning Balance 0.00


Trading Commission -56.00


Rollover Fee-1,350.60


Profit/Loss of Trade 5,756.26


Deposit 50,000.00


Ending Balance 54,349.66


Floating P/L 0.00


Equity 54,349.66


Necessary Margin 0.00


Usable Margin 54,349.66


Notes:
"THIS IS A DEMO ACCOUNT WHICH IS TRADED WITH VIRTUAL FUNDS. NO REAL MONEY IS USED IN TRADING THIS ACCOUNT. Demo accounts are used primarily for education purposes, testing of strategies, and familiarizing traders with market movement and the FX Trading Station. There are inherent risks associated with online trading that may arise due to downtime, currency fluctuation and other risks associated with currency speculation. Only risk capital should be used when trading a real account."

Sorry man I didn't realize your trading potential. BTW, your method is not for beginners. Now I know What is Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management. Keep up the good work
Dedicated to Benjamin