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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #40,541
  • Mar 18, 2017 4:04am Mar 18, 2017 4:04am
weekly price chart review. on it's way to $ 1000 level.
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  • #40,542
  • Edited Mar 19, 2017 10:50am Mar 18, 2017 3:20pm | Edited Mar 19, 2017 10:50am
Great weekend everyone, there are 4 trends when it come to market
(a) Scalp Trend - Note*This is not picking tops or bottoms or a quick trade. It's define trend against it risk and is form within a hour. Best traded within the current Short Term trend, but note it's the start of any trend.
(b) Short Term Trend - Note* This is define with a 4hr open and close against it risk and is consider the current trend at all times and shouldn't be traded against (Majority of traders biggest mistake) a flip of this trend has proven itself time after time to be the best possible trade entry.
(c) Mid Term Trend - Note* This is define with a day open and close against it risk and trade within month range to 3 months.
(d) Long Term Trend - Note* This is define with a week open and close against its risk and trade within a 3 month to a year.

Gold update. Current price 1229.xx (Friday week close) unique until Monday open for some people Sunday. Lets start with the Long Term - Fix high 1257.xx and Fix low 1136.xx Mid 1196.xx was tested on March 10 but was not breach in Fix, but only on price. Which means Long Term still Bullish, however the door is still open to 1187.xx unless the Bulls flip the Mid Term
Mid Term - Will Not state the Fix# so others can do there home work, The Bears are still in control base on day open and close but not on Fix open at 1226.xx Mid (hint for those doing there home work) Monday will decide it.
Short Term - The last short trend started at 1203.xx against 1194.xx in price and 1202.xx against 1196.xx in fix a bounce at the Long Term Mid Fix current flip is at 1224.xx Note* still bullish

We current have 3 Bullish trend in Fix in play and 2 Bullish trend in Price (Long and Short Term) and 1 Bearish (Mid Term) if Bears hold off he Bulls we could see 1187.xx doors open and and Long Term flip, failure to do so will lead to a full Bullish trend move and a test of 1257.xx and any door that might open above 1257.xx. Please note* this is only PA market analyst.

Stop picking tops and bottoms and trade current trend, will save you money and grey hair. just trade the move that is in play.
My advice to you all and always to myself as well. Never run down a trend or anticipate one, just trade the one that's currently in play.
  • #40,543
  • Mar 18, 2017 3:22pm Mar 18, 2017 3:22pm
yeah interested to see how you work out that long-term trend is bullish, there's H&S on 12 hour price chart.
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  • #40,544
  • Mar 18, 2017 3:23pm Mar 18, 2017 3:23pm
and if you look @ 6 months a candle price chart there is huuge bearish absorption @ key level - huuge vol and no follow through. So would be good to know how this is bullish.
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  • #40,545
  • Mar 18, 2017 3:25pm Mar 18, 2017 3:25pm
if you look @ vol on bearish leveraged gold ETF (JDST) there's huuge selling pressure and no follow through, meaning that sellers are getting absorbed.
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  • #40,546
  • Mar 18, 2017 3:31pm Mar 18, 2017 3:31pm
Quoting asgcorp
yeah interested to see how you work out that long-term trend is bullish, there's H&S on 12 hour price chart. {image}
My friend Head and Shoulder is always on the screen and can easily change shape, not the right mentality to decide a trade on.
  • #40,547
  • Mar 18, 2017 3:33pm Mar 18, 2017 3:33pm
Quoting Visionary
{quote} My friend Head and Shoulder is always on the screen and can easily change shape, not the right mentality to decide a trade on.
ok thanks for a heads up sensei, let's see what happens next, I see gold capped @ 1250 it will max out and sink below 1150 very soon.

Ill just leave this here also.
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  • #40,548
  • Mar 18, 2017 3:35pm Mar 18, 2017 3:35pm
Quoting asgcorp
and if you look @ 6 months a candle price chart there is huuge bearish absorption @ key level - huuge vol and no follow through. So would be good to know how this is bullish. {image}
Total market volume can't be seen on a chart from a particular broker, another wrong mentality to approach a trade. Bank Settlement Dates will give you a idea of volume with each current trend.
  • #40,549
  • Mar 18, 2017 3:36pm Mar 18, 2017 3:36pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} ok thanks for a heads up sensei, let's see what happens next, I see gold capped @ 1250 it will max out and sink below 1150 very soon. Ill just leave this here also. {image}
I am not saying it will not, but don't lock your mind in to expectation rather than what is going on.
  • #40,550
  • Mar 18, 2017 3:39pm Mar 18, 2017 3:39pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} ok thanks for a heads up sensei, let's see what happens next, I see gold capped @ 1250 it will max out and sink below 1150 very soon. Ill just leave this here also. {image}
If it's going to 1150 i will see it and i am sure i will be selling on the play.
  • #40,551
  • Mar 18, 2017 3:42pm Mar 18, 2017 3:42pm
Quoting asgcorp
yeah interested to see how you work out that long-term trend is bullish, there's H&S on 12 hour price chart. {image}
There is also a possible LL on that chart. Chart is just PA playing out. So following PA is the always the safest thing to do.
  • #40,552
  • Mar 18, 2017 3:47pm Mar 18, 2017 3:47pm
Quoting Visionary
{quote} There is also a possible LL on that chart. Chart is just PA playing out. So following PA is the always the safest thing to do.
ok so what's your actual trade plan for Sunday/Monday market?
  • #40,553
  • Mar 19, 2017 7:05am Mar 19, 2017 7:05am
daily inside bar break could point to more long ...
  • #40,554
  • Mar 19, 2017 7:41am Mar 19, 2017 7:41am
Bullish above 1215......
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -619
  • #40,555
  • Edited 10:55am Mar 19, 2017 10:09am | Edited 10:55am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} ok so what's your actual trade plan for Sunday/Monday market?
The current Short Term trend is still buy, so i will be buying as long as that don't change. The Short Term flip is at 1224.xx as i have stated above so i will watch is closely if we get a flip. If that be the case i will take a sell against 1230.xx for my first risk for at least 2;1 ratio profit for target 1212.xx

The Monday Pm Fix will decide 1228.xx rather if the Bears lose the Mid Term,(Note they have already done so with Fix) however the bulls would have to go for a week close above 1257.xx to be fully in control. By the 3rd of April we will see if Bulls have a fix and PA over 1224.xx Which mean Bulls fully in charge.
  • #40,556
  • Mar 19, 2017 10:20am Mar 19, 2017 10:20am
Quoting Visionary
{quote} The current Shot Term trend is still buy, so i will be buying as long as that don't change. The Short Term flip is at 1224.xx as i have stated above so i will watch is closely if we get a flip. If that be the case i will take a sell against 1230.xx for my first risk for at least 2;1 ratio profit for target 1212.xx The Monday Pm Fix will decide 1228.xx rather if the Bears lose the Mid Term,(Note they have already done so with Fix) however the bulls would have to go for a week close above 1257.xx to be fully in control. By the 1st of April...
A major Bank Settlement direction for the past 3 month hint* today is 19th of March, 2017. Three (3) month ago was the 19th of December. I will encourage one tool to be use on chart Fibs or just do it your yourself by adding the Fix high and Fix low for the period and divide it by 2 equal= Mid(Direction)
  • #40,557
  • Mar 19, 2017 12:18pm Mar 19, 2017 12:18pm
As I see the short term trend, looking at 5 min chart, it is FLAT. From 800am ET to close chopped back and forth. Can't be anything else but flat.
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  • #40,558
  • Mar 19, 2017 12:29pm Mar 19, 2017 12:29pm
Quoting Visionary
{quote} The current Short Term trend is still buy,
nice overall summary, I agree with you 1223-1224 still looks good to load up for a higher target around mid 30s into 40s.
  • #40,559
  • Mar 19, 2017 1:37pm Mar 19, 2017 1:37pm
Quoting SunTrader
As I see the short term trend, looking at 5 min chart, it is FLAT. From 800am ET to close chopped back and forth. Can't be anything else but flat. {image}
Good day my friend it depends on how you see flat. 1 to 2 is plus+1 a move which is up. And 2 to 1 is minus-1 a move which is down.

Friday was only buy within the Short Term trend with scalp entry, a scalp set up took place on your chart at 1225.xx against 1224.xx as risk. It lead to a high of 1231.xx a +6 move. a 6:1 ratio trade with daily close of 1229.xx a +4.
  • #40,560
  • Mar 19, 2017 3:12pm Mar 19, 2017 3:12pm
My idea is to sell 1229/1233 area with SL above 1237 (if price stays above).

The dollar bounced off 100 so Im currently bearish, but looking to buy around 1212 if it goes there.

Gold is just below the 50% retracement of the bearish move from 1263 to 1194. 61.8% retracement is 1237.

Good luck
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