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The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

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Technical Analysis Fallacy

AOW...

35. Do not swallow bait offered by the enemy.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
Quoting phil13
AOW... 35. Do not swallow bait offered by the enemy. {image}


Mwah ha ha......the more fishies the better for me....

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
Hi Alex

we just have to wait for the sharks to leave the battlefield and feed on the left overs and carcasses...

1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the
possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the
enemy.
2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity
of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

regards

Phil.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
Quoting phil13
Hi Alex we just have to wait for the sharks to leave the battlefield and feed on the left overs and carcasses... 1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy. 2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself. regards Phil. {image} {image}
Oh yes...do not worry ....

When markets are weird I stay out or if I can feel sth go very very small (but not round the news).......when I feel weird I stay out...


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
Quoting phil13
Hi Alex we just have to wait for the sharks to leave the battlefield and feed on the left overs and carcasses... 1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy. 2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself. regards Phil. {image} {image}
hahahahaha

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regards
hahahahaha i am prAdAtor.

regards
i meet 1 , i kill 1.


dog ticks.
now kill count is in hundreds already. 5 already should be aCe.
have secret weapon.
any come again , they die. can start cementary for them bastards already.
you bite my dogs you pay.
Mosquitoes still no secret weapon. Still bites me and i still using my thai weapon. electro-cute them

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hahahaha gender discrimination.
"only female mosquitoes bite humans." If we kill all their gfs, won't the males revenge? or turn grey?
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hahahahahahahahaha looks like star wars to me.

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yaya poli ticklely correct.

ya what's.....eeeer who's next?

eeeeer開了殺界? hahaha hahaha eeeeer oops

regards
Hi fti

my friend, there are 3 ways to deal with the mosquitos...

the aggressive way.
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the eco way.
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and of course sometimes we need the diplomatic way.
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but then again surely you do not mind them having a little taste...
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regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
Quoting phil13
Hi fti my friend, there are 3 ways to deal with the mosquitos... the aggressive way. {image} the eco way. {image} and of course sometimes we need the diplomatic way. {image} but then again surely you do not mind them having a little taste... {image} regards Phil.
hahahahahahahahaha
phil my friend, i haven't laughed for a while.

hahahahahahaha {hug}

regards
Quoting fti
{quote} hahahahahahahahaha phil my friend, i haven't laughed for a while. hahahahahahaha {hug} regards
Hi fti

{hug}

oh... look they do a bug gun, you could get back on a battlefield.

regards

Phil.

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https://www.amazon.com/Bug-A-Salt-2-.../dp/B00STSZ77G
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi fti {hug} oh... look they do a bug gun, you could get back on a battlefield. regards Phil. {image} https://www.amazon.com/Bug-A-Salt-2-.../dp/B00STSZ77G
hahahahahaha ai ya sodium, dangerous salty chemical. chaffs
here is very hot leh. hahahaha

hehehehe good ideafor next water festival.
i can already visualise the females not mosquitoes, bring the fresh spring water wash off the salty.
buckets water pls.

regards
Quoting fti
{quote} hahahahahaha ai ya sodium, dangerous salty chemical. chaffs here is very hot leh. hahahaha hehehehe good ideafor next water festival. i can already visualise the females not mosquitoes, bring the fresh spring water wash off the salty. buckets water pls. regards

Hi fti

ah, my friend that sounds like a good plan..

regards

Phil.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
Quoting fti
i .......cementary for them bastards already. you bite m....
gards
my scouts been in cemetary...paid respects and left .....I hate mosquitos as they like me.....



Alex x
check out the terrain - follow never lead
quadruple witching day made me think of fx and FTI ... had to see this thread and i am verry happy to see it is still active including FTI :}

i remember reading dealers got liquor, then this song stuck in my head... "boy what a night"

FTI, maybe you like it ... i wish you all the best

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even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
I have immense pleasure in dedicating the attached Metatrader4 (mql4) EA to the feet of the enterprising master fti

How to use the expert?

1) delete green arrow to buy.
2) delete red arrow to sell.
3) change the lot size on the labels you see on the screen as you progress through the skew . now your next buy or sell will place order from what you typed on the screen.

WARNING.
a) don't delete the lot size label by mistake. remember to deselect it after you change the size.
a) don't delete both buy and sell arrows by mistake. this will place both buy and sell orders.
c) use it with your own risk and don't blame me for anything.

don't ask any questions. i am not active in FF anymore. but i will definitely try to answer you queries when time permits.

good luck.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 fti.mq4   13 KB | 408 downloads
Quoting fti
Apologies -no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets. -"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose" Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt. Since the late 70s and into the millinium. Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few, The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow...
While agree with most of what is written here, I also know it is possible to trade successfully algorithmically. My style is statistical analysis using computers and then execution using computers. This works for me. The market is most of the time random, that is true, however there are small pockets of imbalance that can be exploited to create an edge.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
Quoting guybaker
{quote} I also know it is possible to trade successfully algorithmically. My style is statistical analysis using computers and then execution using computers. This works for me. The market is most of the time random, that is true, however there are small pockets of imbalance that can be exploited to create an edge.
Hello Guybaker,

Agree and about the same. Trading algorithmically (as my chart and market reading, mindset, MM as well as trading dance could be a sort of), using computers to execute my orders, random - 50/50 likelihood. Then, imbalance is a Tsunami wave (Force Majeure). Hopefully, we will understand each other better and read reciprotically if you afforded to explore some first 100 - 200 pages of this Thread.

Enjoy your trading!
Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Guybaker, Agree and about the same. Trading algorithmically (as my chart and market reading, mindset, MM as well as trading dance could be a sort of), using computers to execute my orders, random - 50/50 likelihood. Then, imbalance is a Tsunami wave (Force Majeure). Hopefully, we will understand each other better and read reciprotically if you afforded to explore some first 100 - 200 pages of this Thread. Enjoy your trading! Best regards, Exnav

My challenge (and this may be personal to me) is that if we make trades based on patterns that cannot be mathematically defined, we just "look" at the chart and use our minds to decide what to do next, is that it is very difficult to truly "know" whether we are gambling or not. Having won or lost some money is no proof either way, we need in the region of 10,000 setups to "prove" the existence of an edge.

It is true to say (I have tested this) that if you execute from virtually any position with an equal stop and target the chances of hitting either the stop or the target are 1 in 2 yeah 50/50 it's is true the market is random most of the time, however I have found by extensive statistical modelling that it is possible to find small pockets of market imbalance where an edge can be exploited again using equal stops and target distances. Look at my latest system tested back to 2003, figures assume 0.6 pip spread trading EURUSD, include roll over charges and also include a 1 pip guaranteed stop premium (I trade with IG.com)
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Zen.pdf   62 KB | 377 downloads
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
Quoting guybaker
{quote} however I have found by extensive statistical modelling that it is possible to find small pockets of market imbalance where an edge can be exploited again using equal stops and target distances. Look at my latest system tested back to 2003, figures assume 0.6 pip spread trading EURUSD, include roll over charges and also include a 1 pip guaranteed stop premium (I trade with IG.com) {image}
Hello Guybaker,

As mentioned in my previous post,
Quote
we will understand each other better and read reciprotically if you afforded to explore some first 100 - 200 pages of this Thread.

I do see your point. In my turn, regarding Fx spot, have been building an Anthill. Not at a level to make living from it only due to a low MM base (my pain threshold). Put stops only at the above MM limit if engaged at 3rd Rescue Level implying several positions (may not square manually when required). Still could be wrong but this is my way.

Have consistently successful trading!
Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Guybaker, As mentioned in my previous post, {quote} I do see your point. In my turn, regarding Fx spot, have been building an Anthill. Not at a level to make living from it only due to a low MM base (my pain threshold). Put stops only at the above MM limit if engaged at 3rd Rescue Level implying several positions (may not square manually when required). Still could be wrong but this is my way. Have consistently successful trading! Best regards, Exnav

I live entirely from trading, I will see if I can skim the first couple of hundred pages of this thread, which I notice has been running since 2007!
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
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