Bagovino Method

I'm still in the process of examining those dots. I tend to ignore them at the momment. Sometimes the red/green mean a continuation to the trend and sometimes it means a reversal. I have no idea what the gold represents. Shopping for indicators at FF is like Christmas.

Twas the night before NFP
and all thru the land
Fxtraders were searching
for that magical band...

Monday Comming Signal:

We Have nice Long signal @ Eur/jpy:
1- Divergance
2- Price Close above 23.6% Fib Level
3- RSI Cross In the Way

Guys Confirm ?

Eur/USD & GBP/USD & AUD/USD Oversold and we have divergance too... Waiting long signal !

-but for GBP 'll trade the news only at monday to be is safe side

Guys Confirm ?

Thanks for the observations Maxey. Also, nice work on the new news thread.

Hi,

I have made several backtesting about Bagovino method. The software I use is Tradecision
The backtest is on the USDCHF 5" from 8 Feb 2005 to 8 Fev 2006 (1year = 72000 bars). I know that many of these method users use 30" chart, or 1 hour, but personnaly I prefer 5" chart and I think it's work well also.
The EMAs and all other indicators are calculated on the medium price of the bar = (high+low)/2.
The execution price is also the medium price
Common parameters :
Session is 24h a day
Initial capital : 500 000$
Margin : 1%
Spread : 2 pips
Slippage : no
Risk : 2 % on a trade
Position : fixed position = approx 80 lots


Backtest 1 : without RSI :
Entry long : if ema(5) crossup ema(12)
Exit long : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12)
Entry short : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12)
Exit short : if ema(5) crossup ema(12)

Results :
number of trades : 5744
% profitables trades : 28.5 %
% of losing trades : 71.5%

Largest profitable trade : 126 375 $
Largest losing trade : -26 650 $

Average profitable trade : 12 994 $
Average losing trade : -4 658 $
ratio : 2.79

Max consecutive profitable trade :7
Max consecutive losing trade : 33

Initial capital : 500 000$
Final capital : 2 638 000 $
return : : 427 %
Max drawdown : 20% (peak to valley)
% in market : 99%

Backtest 2 : with RSI in entry:
Entry long : if ema(5) crossup ema(12) AND RSI(21) >50
Exit long : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12)
Entry short : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12) AND RSI(21) <50
Exit short : if ema(5) crossup ema(12)
NOTE that RSI is used only for entry

Results :
number of trades : 3706
% profitables trades : 30. %
% of losing trades : 70%

Largest profitable trade : 126 375 $
Largest losing trade : -25 730$

Average profitable trade : 13 789$
Average losing trade : -4 859 $
ratio : 2.84

Max consecutive profitable trade :5
Max consecutive losing trade : 31

Initial capital : 500 000$
Final capital : 2 689 000$
return : : 437 %
Max drawdown : 28% (peak to valley) from 1 400 000$ to 995 000$
% in market : 65%

Backtest 3 : with RSI in entry and exit:
Entry long : if ema(5) crossup ema(12) AND RSI(21) >50
Exit long : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12) OR RSI(21) <50
Entry short : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12) AND RSI(21) <50
Exit short : if ema(5) crossup ema(12) OR RSI(21) >50
Not : Rsi is used with AND in entry and OR in exit

Results :
number of trades : 3706
% profitables trades : 26.5 %
% of losing trades : 73.5%

Largest profitable trade : 126 375 $
Largest losing trade : -24 180$

Average profitable trade : 13 656$
Average losing trade : -3 954$
ratio : 3.45

Max consecutive profitable trade :5
Max consecutive losing trade : 25

Initial capital : 500 000$
Final capital : 3 154 000$
return : : 530 %
Max drawdown : 14% (peak to valley) from 1 520 000$ to 1 300 000$
% in market : 57%

Backtest 4: with RSI in entry and R-Squared on exit:
Entry long : if ema(5) crossup ema(12) AND RSI(21) >50
Exit long : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12) OR R-Squared(10) <0.2
Entry short : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12) AND RSI(21) <50
Exit short : if ema(5) crossup ema(12) OR R-Squared(10) <0.2


Results :
number of trades : 3706
% profitables trades : 41.5 %
% of losing trades : 58.5%
Largest profitable trade : 85 280$
Largest losing trade : -23 800$
Average profitable trade : 3 4065$
Average losing trade : -2 042$
ratio : 1. 67

Max consecutive profitable trade :9
Max consecutive losing trade : 14

Initial capital : 500 000$
Final capital : 1 325 000$
return : : 165 %
Max drawdown : 18 % (peak to valley) from 551 000$ to 450 000$
% in market : 9%

Backtest 5 : with RSI in entry and (RSI or R-Squared) on exit:
Entry long : if ema(5) crossup ema(12) AND RSI(21) >50
Exit long : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12) OR RSI(21) <50 OR R-Squared(10)<0.2
Entry short : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12) AND RSI(21) <50
Exit short : if ema(5) crossup ema(12) OR RSI(21) >50 OR R-Squared(10)<0.2

Results :
number of trades : 3706
% profitables trades : 41.2 %
% of losing trades : 58.8%
Largest profitable trade : 85 280 $
Largest losing trade : -23 800$
Average profitable trade : 3 405$
Average losing trade : -1 962$
ratio : 1.74

Max consecutive profitable trade :9
Max consecutive losing trade : 14

Initial capital : 500 000$
Final capital : 1 440 000$
return : : 187 %
Max drawdown : 9.6 % (peak to valley) from 551 000$ to 498 000$
% in market : 8%

Backtest 6 : with RSI in entry and (RSI and R-Squared) on exit:
Entry long : if ema(5) crossup ema(12) AND RSI(21) >50
Exit long : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12) OR (RSI(21) <50 AND R-Squared(10)<0.2)
Entry short : if ema(5) crossdown ema(12) AND RSI(21) <50
Exit short : if ema(5) crossup ema(12) OR (RSI(21) >50 AND R-Squared(10)<0.2)

Results :
number of trades : 3706
% profitables trades : 26.8 %
% of losing trades : 73.2%
Largest profitable trade : 126 375$
Largest losing trade : -24 180$
Average profitable trade : 13 666$
Average losing trade : -4 058$
ratio : 3 .37

Max consecutive profitable trade :5
Max consecutive losing trade : 25

Initial capital : 500 000$
Final capital : 2 614 000$
return : : 522 %
Max drawdown : 14 % (peak to valley) from 1 500 000$ to 1 300 000$
% in market : 58%

Conclusions :
r-squared is not usefull .Best pattern is backtest 3. Rsi must be used on entry and on exit. Althought the win/loss ratio is not very good (26% or 1:4), the average profitable/losing amount ratio is very good (3.45) and the largest profitable/losing amount ratio is 5.22
A trailing stop of 10 pips will allow a higher leverage

Money management advanced: Since the slope of the equity curve is rather regular, and the drawdowns are quite small, we can use the fixe ratio formula for the position size:Leverage = 20

next steps

vary the RSI settings from 45 to 55 using genetics algoritms

Would I interrupt these as false signals and just keep my losses small
and/or Stop Loss short?

Jim

1. divergence on macd and rsi confirmed especially on 15minute chart.
2. i would like to see a confirmed break (5+pips) of a possible double top at 148.54, then its a bit too close to the 50% line so will watch how the price reacts with that before either going long or take a bounce if the crosses confirm a bounce.

Havn difficulty setting up fibs for 4 hr on USD/JPY and making them work real time could anyone post example. What does it mean when fibs don't line up well to chart? other chart times are pretty good.
I'm newbie and enthralled by thread. Awesome stuff all round

MAXEY,

Looks like you have a great grasp of this system and are using it to make lots of $$$$$!!! Good for You!!!! I'm happy about that! Please stay on board and keep posting your great success!!


Thank You!

Bagovino

Anyone take the eurjpy trade?

i did

usdchf is looking pretty good too now huh? I'm thinking on the next bar.

Hi Tim,


Yep,

Long at 148.31

Yeaaaaaaa i got it now +30 my target till get +120

looking good...though RSI still > 50...but definitely worth to monitor...

That is the wonderful thing about the RSI. We get a bunch of 5/12 crosses and RSI will filter out those crosses so we don't "jump the gun".

Long: 218.50

RENASDAD!!!!

AMEN!!!!

Good to see you back!

B.

good to be back. We'll see in the next few weeks how much time I have to be here though.

Short: 1.1807