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  • #14,861
  • Mar 11, 2017 8:00pm Mar 11, 2017 8:00pm
Quoting The Fool
Singha, Without diving into the specifics of the names above, I would expect HOLX to be the most expensive, relatively, since it will likely have the lowest open interest in its options. The cheapest options will be those that have the lowest iv and the highest oi.
How can one determine what is considered high vs low with open interest? A number threshold above/below a number?
I love forex. One day it will love me back.
  • #14,862
  • Mar 11, 2017 8:43pm Mar 11, 2017 8:43pm
WELL, you can look at something that has options with the highest oi, like SPY, and compare to that. Or you can look at the issue itself across its chains. I guess I would say numbers <1,000 are "low". Numbers <100 are so low they mean the options are not worth trading.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,863
  • Mar 11, 2017 8:49pm Mar 11, 2017 8:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}fwiw, my gut is we will see a revisitation @ 2,400-2,420 max in the day of maybe day after the rate hike next week, then the spoos will slide. We won't see any more hot bull action until (if/when) Trumpy delivers the tax cut meat. I do not have any index trades on at all (that I can recall atm anyway) after Mar 17.
I will put on some SPY and SPX put flys, a month to 3-6 months out, filled where I can get in cheap and with sick r:r, as below....I like that 2,250 level for some sticky
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,864
  • Mar 12, 2017 8:07pm Mar 12, 2017 8:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}fwiw, my gut is we will see a revisitation @ 2,400-2,420 max in the day of maybe day after the rate hike next week, then the spoos will slide. We won't see any more hot bull action until (if/when) Trumpy delivers the tax cut meat. I do not have any index trades on at all (that I can recall atm anyway) after Mar 17.
I agree with your take here. If this bull market from 09 is going to continue we need a substantial pullback to make another leg up. if we just continue to capitulate then we just wait until the Humpty Dumpty moment.

all I have going is various stock/etf trades(did some short strangles on a few stocks and Im waiting for a couple others to enter this week) and those commodity trades.

I closed a XME June 30/35 bear put spread for a decent profit. it moved too damn fast so the short option gobbled up a lot of my profits. I should of just bought straight puts on that one. oh well.
Closed a few losers too. Thought AMAT was gonna turn and it ripped through my zone. A couple others got me too but no big deal. They were worth the Risk:reward

I've actually been watching some FX pairs lately too. I trade with IB so I can't trade spot. Thinking of opening a small offshore accnt with FXchoice. like 5k. I think if we get hot with trade wars global currencies could be where the action is.
  • #14,865
  • Mar 13, 2017 8:19am Mar 13, 2017 8:19am
FOOL, what's going on with ICE quotations in TDA? They've told me they had a policy change and arent offering ICE quotes anymore.

Any clue?
  • #14,866
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:58pm Mar 13, 2017 1:58pm
no clue, Pharmor
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,867
  • Mar 13, 2017 5:16pm Mar 13, 2017 5:16pm
Quoting Pharm0r
FOOL, what's going on with ICE quotations in TDA? They've told me they had a policy change and arent offering ICE quotes anymore. Any clue?
Ya, Gotta pay the $110 a month if you wanna trade cocoa, coffee, dx futures...etc now
  • #14,868
  • Mar 13, 2017 5:20pm Mar 13, 2017 5:20pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Ya, Gotta pay the $110 a month if you wanna trade cocoa, coffee, dx futures...etc now
no thanks.
  • #14,869
  • Mar 13, 2017 5:31pm Mar 13, 2017 5:31pm
Ya so Ackman closed out his trade on VRX for a $4bln loss and it gapped down under $11 in after hours. I want to buy it
  • #14,870
  • Mar 13, 2017 6:15pm Mar 13, 2017 6:15pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Ya so Ackman closed out his trade on VRX for a $4bln loss and it gapped down under $11 in after hours. I want to buy it
good eye, dude is a glutton for punishment
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,871
  • Mar 13, 2017 7:01pm Mar 13, 2017 7:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}fwiw, my gut is we will see a revisitation @ 2,400-2,420 max in the day of maybe day after the rate hike next week, then the spoos will slide. We won't see any more hot bull action until (if/when) Trumpy delivers the tax cut meat. I do not have any index trades on at all (that I can recall atm anyway) after Mar 17.
gimme a grind up thru the 2,400 level on Wed.....I am traveling so will have to find a hot spot in some hell hole to manage trades.....either way after Wed I will be looking at almost all cash after the FOMC....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,872
  • Mar 13, 2017 10:31pm Mar 13, 2017 10:31pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}gimme a grind up thru the 2,400 level on Wed.....I am traveling so will have to find a hot spot in some hell hole to manage trades.....either way after Wed I will be looking at almost all cash after the FOMC....

FOMC is gonna be a shitshow but at least it will give us a macro direction. If it turns out to be Trump V. The Fed then expect volatility to finally come out of hibernation.

Business as usual on my end. I bought some RSX may 19 calls for 1.19. I'm thinking we hit at least 25 by the time those options expire.
I have leaps on UAA but it looks like Ill end up owning that stock at 15 come Jan 18'.
Have May 15 puts on MRVL I paid too much for. if we close over the 16.69 level I'm out. hopefully today was the trend termination.
I'm short AXP, AGI and AGO but AGO is kicking my ass and I may have to close it.
Few other stocks here and there but I'm in them for like $500 worth of risk each while my big dogs shiny and dirty are MUCH MUCH more heavily leveraged. Literally if those things don't stop me out and I hit my targets I may just retire and fuck looking at these markets the rest of my life.

I just need the 1 or 2 big wins to basically win at life. If the lotto doesn't do it I'm hoping the dirty and shiny will
  • #14,873
  • Mar 15, 2017 6:34am Mar 15, 2017 6:34am
Quoting The Fool
gimme a grind up thru the 2,400 level on Wed........
....Ides of March headfake?....we'll see....I need a +1% day for the S&P....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,874
  • Mar 15, 2017 1:59pm Mar 15, 2017 1:59pm
yup I figured we'd get a pop on the hike. but I need a pin at 2,400 on the close, might not be that strong...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,875
  • Mar 15, 2017 2:10pm Mar 15, 2017 2:10pm
shiny liked the FOMC - W. did you bail?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,876
  • Mar 15, 2017 2:50pm Mar 15, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting The Fool
yup I figured we'd get a pop on the hike. but I need a pin at 2,400 on the close, might not be that strong...
I have SPY $240 and $242 call calendars, Mar17/Mar22, maybe get some love there. day late dollar short today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,877
  • Mar 15, 2017 5:09pm Mar 15, 2017 5:09pm
Quoting The Fool
shiny liked the FOMC - W. did you bail?

Nah, Got my face ripped off on shiny and dirty. But I shorted more GC futures at 1220 and bought more GLD sept puts at the end of the day. Waiting on the dirty to see if the 49.35 holds and ill short more there too.

Bonds ripped too so I shorted some TLT at 118.60. I'm out if we crack the 119.10 area. Looking to take out the 116 lows and maybe start to push down much deeper.

Basically I cant really imagine that hike wasn't baked in the cake since JY didn't really say or do anything different than expected.

Other than that My squid needs to turn around. 8 red days in a row is very un-squid-like
  • #14,878
  • Mar 15, 2017 5:12pm Mar 15, 2017 5:12pm
Gotta keep a really close eye on EEM into the end of the week. Looks like it could be capitulating for a great potential short
  • #14,879
  • Mar 15, 2017 5:13pm Mar 15, 2017 5:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I have SPY $240 and $242 call calendars, Mar17/Mar22, maybe get some love there. day late dollar short today....

If the Greenback keeps falling a little more you may nail it. Lots of willing buyers down near the 99 handle. So we still got some room to run
  • #14,880
  • Mar 15, 2017 5:55pm Mar 15, 2017 5:55pm
yeah but I still think we are due for a slide....watching to see how Dutch Trump does...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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