High Probability Insight: Day-Trade Daily Momentum on M1/M5TF

Last Update on CAD/CHF

I was very patient on this trade, but it didn't work out..I might get in again next week if I see
some Strength on CAD.....

Yellen stated clearly that March Hike likely appropriate. Where do we go from now?

What to Expect on CAD/CHF:

If CAD failed to maintain its strength for the next 2 weeks or so, we might see a massive drop
for the next 3 months or less...

Price Action needs to move Up for a bit around the Hidden Key Levels first ( 78.6% - 88.6% )

Here's what I am looking at:







BTW, this is a slow mover.....

Weekly Economic Calendar Update by Jarratt Davis:





Note: Busy week ahead of us. Get ready and Be prepared for Massive Volatility....

Current Market Condition/Sentiment: (CsDash)





Note: I will be observing the Market Today, and allow myself to see the Bigger Picture for the
rest of the week....

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK : ( March 13th-March 17th )


US Producer Prices:
US producer prices edged up 0.6%, recording their largest gain in four years due to increases in
the cost of energy products, However, the strength of the dollar kept inflation tame. Economists
expected a 0.3% rise. Despite this sharp gain, the PPI yearly growth remained unchanged at 1.6%
as in the 12 months through December.
Core PPI, a more reliable measure of underlying producer price pressures excluding food, energy
and trade services increased 0.2% after gaining 0.1% in December. Producer prices are expected to
rise 0.1% this time.


UK jobs report:
The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits dropped in January by 42,400, following a
revised decline of 20,500 in December. It was the sharpest decline since the fourth quarter of 2013.
In the last three months, unemployment fell by 7000 to 1.6 million. The unemployment rate is the
lowest since 2005 with a reading of 4.8%. The number of new unemployed in the UK is expected to
rise by 3,200 in February.


US Inflation data:
The U.S. inflation jumped in January by 0.6%, the highest since February 2013, due to higher costs
for gasoline and services indicating inflation is gaining momentum. This rise followed a 0.3% climb in
December. Rising prices of energy, clothing and new cars indicate inflation pressures are mounting
amid healthy demand.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that more interest-rate increases will be executed if inflation picks up and
the Labor Market remains tight.
US Consumer prices are estimated to remain unchanged while core inflation is expected to gain 0.2%
in February.

US Retail sales:
Retail sales for January picked up matching the rise in consumer confidence with 0.4% gain,
exceeding modest forecasts of 0.1%. Furthermore, December’s retail sales were revised higher
to a strong plus 1.0%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales soared a sharp 0.8% in January which
again topped estimates.
This upbeat data points to a strong momentum for consumer spending, being the most important
sector in US economy. Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.2% and core sales are predicted
to rise 0.1%.


US Crude Oil Inventories:
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories jumped to another record high, rising 8.2 million barrels in the week to
March 3rd. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks have contracted by 6.6 million barrels, posting the largest
one-week drop in nearly six years. Analysts expected crude stocks to rise by a mere 1.1 mlb.
Crude stocks imports rose by 385,000 barrels per day while gasoline stocks fell by rising demand.



*US FOMC Economic Projections and Rate Decision:

The Federal Reserve’s rate hike on December 14 was a near certainty but not so for its economic
projections in light of the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. Fed Chair
Janet Yellen noted that the U.S. central bank is “operating under a cloud of uncertainty at the moment”
regarding impacts of the new government’s potential fiscal measures on the economy.

The FOMC sees three rate hikes in 2017, instead of the two from September’s projections. But beyond 2017,
the assessments are the same as in September. Regarding growth projections, the Fed sees a 2% rise,
falling to 1.8% in the longer run. The unemployment rate is estimated to reach 4.5% between 2017 and 2019
before rising to 4.8 percent in the longer term.

At Federal Funds rate meeting in March The FOMC is expected to raise rates again, however, this time the Fed
will make the decision on its own accord with no pressure either from markets or from its own prior signals
to push ahead with an increase.

New Zealand GDP data:
New Zealand Economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter, jumping 1.1% amid
strong consumer spending and construction activity. The reading beat analysts’ forecast of a
0.8% gain. This was the fifth straight quarter of growth at 0.7 percent or more. The annual pace
reached 3.5%, fueled by robust population growth of 2.1%.
Manufacturing grew 1.2% in the quarter and tourism exports and retail trade and accommodation
services were boosted by a surge of tourists. The service sector, which makes up 70% of the economy,
expanded 1.1% in the quarter. However, the participation rate declined slightly from 64.7% to 64.6%.
Economists expect a growth rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016.


Japan Rate Decision:
The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates at minus 0.1% and the 10-year government bond yield
to around zero%. The Central bank raised its growth projections for the fiscal year beginning in April to
1.5% from 1.3% in the previous month due to positive expectations for exports.
Projections for growth in 2018 have also increased. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reassured reporters
saying U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policy will boost growth in the US and around the world.
Kuroda also said the 2% inflation target may take longer to achieve.


UK Rate Decision:
The Bank of England maintained its benchmark rate at 0.25% and voted to continue its quantitative easing
measures. The Central bank raised its forecasts for the UK economy, increasing the odds for a rate hike rather
than a rate cut. The bank predicts the economy will grow 2% this year and the unemployment would be much
lower than previously projected.
Growth has remained resilient since the Brexit Vote and policymakers expect growth to continue in the coming
months.

Last Update for the Weekly Outlook:


US Building Permits:
The number of building permits surged 4.6% in January to a rate of 1.29 million units, the highest level
since November 2015 indicating the housing market will increase its activity in the coming months.
Economists had forecast permits would remain at 1.23 million units. This positive data together with the
tight Labor Market shows the Economy continues to improve. The number of building permits is expected
to reach 1.26 million this time.


US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:
Philly Fed’s manufacturing activity survey exceeded expectations registering 43.3 for February, way above
economists’ expectations of 18.5, jumping higher up from the 23.6 reading in January. This is the highest
reading for the index since 1984 and the largest gap between the reading and expectations since 1998.
The current new orders index increased 12 points this month. The exports index increased 8 points. Other
broad indicators also corroborate growth.
Manufacturing activity in the Philly area is expected to reach 30.2 in March.


US Unemployment Claims:
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased from a 44-year low to
243,000 in the week ended March. However despite the 20,000 rise the reading still remained at a healthy
Labor Market conditions.
Economists expected claims to reach 239,000 for the week. The four-week moving average of claims fell
by 2,250 to 236,500. The positive reading shows the Labor Market is near full employment and is ready for
another rate hike. The number of jobless claims is expected to rise to 245,000.


US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment:
Consumer confidence declined in February to a three-month low of 95.7 from 98.5 in January, down from a
13-year high, amid milder expectations on Finances and the Economy. The results reflected clear differences
between Republicans and Democrats following the election of Donald Trump as president.
Republicans registered sentiment about 40 points higher than Democrats, according to the survey. The current
conditions index inched down to 111.2 from a reading of 111.3 in the prior month.

Future expectations six months from now decreased to a three-month low of 85.7 from 90.3. Consumer moral
is expected to increase to 97.1 this time.

Market Expectation on AUDUSD, H4TF:






Note: I need the Monday Data to have a clear picture, but this is what I am looking at.

Here's what I am looking at on NZDUSD, H4TF:

EUR Pairs are very Strong right now, but I would like to see a small pullback on them for the next 3 days or less :

No Guarantees!

NO Clear Direction on the GBP Pairs as a whole, but we might see some actions
this week ( U.K rate decision this coming Thursday )

London Session Update ( CsDASH )

Current Market Condition/Sentiment:

Tuesday, March 14th, 2017 @ 2:04 - London Open

Current Market Sentiment/Condition Update: ( CsDash )




Note: No Major News till U.S Session

AUDUSD, H4TF - Continuation or Trend Reversal?????

3 Different Harmonic Patterns at the D-Completion

Weekly Economic Calendar Update (Source: Jarratt Davis )

Current Market Condition/Sentiment: (Observation ONLY )

AUDUSD, H4TF - Potential Trend Reversal Setup

This setup has been on my radar since last week, and today might be the turning point. I had
an opportunity to go Short on Monday, and I didn't take it. So, Let's hope for a better Entry
during the London Session.

There's no High-Impact News on AUD throughout the week, so I just have to be patient and observe
this setup.

hey Octavjay
glad to see you stick with your plan all these months or years. you sure are determined. hows your equity curve doing?
hope all is well with ya my friend.