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  • #2,961
  • Mar 12, 2017 1:38am Mar 12, 2017 1:38am
Hello everyone

A quick note for the stock market traders amongst us

Please see below, a link to a website you may find useful in doing some background work and for information.

If i may, when trading stocks in various sectors you may want to also put up a chart of the main component of the s&p 500 within that sector to see what it is doing as well, as an odds enhancer for your proposed trade

For example, if the stock you are trading is in the information technology sector, put i[ a chart of MSFT, (microsoft), FB,(Facebook), and of course, Apple (aapl)
If any one of them is entering a demand zone at the same time as your stock is then it adds better odds to your trade idea

best wishes

https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #2,962
  • Mar 12, 2017 9:21am Mar 12, 2017 9:21am
Quoting Akt
Hello everyone A quick note for the stock market traders amongst us Please see below, a link to a website you may find useful in doing some background work and for information. If i may, when trading stocks in various sectors you may want to also put up a chart of the main component of the s&p 500 within that sector to see what it is doing as well, as an odds enhancer for your proposed trade For example, if the stock you are trading is in the information technology sector, put i[ a chart of MSFT, (microsoft), FB,(Facebook), and of course, Apple...
Hi Akt, very very useful tool. I like it.
Phill
To break the rules you must first master them.
  • #2,963
  • Edited 3:32pm Mar 12, 2017 9:45am | Edited 3:32pm
AUD /USD : A pullback

Curve timeframe (weekly / orange color) : The trend is bullish sideways trend. The upside trendline has been broken. The SZ with dotted line is not fresh, so we choose the higher fresh zone. Under this weekly SZ there is a fresh Daily SZ. The price location is near the proximal line of the weekly DZ.

Trend timeframe (daily / blue color) : On the daily chart we can see that the trend is down. The Daily SZ which is above the price is not fresh. The Daily DZ is embeded in the weekly DZ.

Execution timeframe (4H / red color) : Uprend (a SZ removed + the ability to draw a momentum trendline).

Conclusion : We are in a retracement of the weekly uptrend. The daily downtrend can be stopped only by the weekly buyers. So we anticipate that the Uptrend will resume and the possible targets are:
- short term : the 4H SZ
- medium term : the daily non fresh SZ
- longer term : the Weekly fresh SZ or the daily fresh SZ.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDmicroWeekly.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDmicroDaily.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDmicroH4.png Size: 34 KB
  • #2,964
  • Mar 12, 2017 9:48am Mar 12, 2017 9:48am
Hi guys,

what do you mean about this...AUDCHF. Now price holding daily demand level, but is so closed potential supply that did no profit margin.

Weekly monthly - uptrend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily - demand level inside weekly vs daily downtrend momentum.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,965
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:44am Mar 12, 2017 11:44am
Quoting Akt
Hello everyone A quick note for the stock market traders amongst us Please see below, a link to a website you may find useful in doing some background work and for information. If i may, when trading stocks in various sectors you may want to also put up a chart of the main component of the s&p 500 within that sector to see what it is doing as well, as an odds enhancer for your proposed trade For example, if the stock you are trading is in the information technology sector, put i[ a chart of MSFT, (microsoft), FB,(Facebook), and of course, Apple...
Thank you for that AKT! You are a legend.
  • #2,966
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:49am Mar 12, 2017 11:49am
Quoting Michele86
Hi guys, what do you mean about this...AUDCHF. Now price holding daily demand level, but is so closed potential supply that did no profit margin. Weekly monthly - uptrend {image} Daily - demand level inside weekly vs daily downtrend momentum. {image}
A few notes from what I see.
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  • #2,967
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:54am Mar 12, 2017 11:54am
Quoting Denden2012
{quote} A few notes from what I see. {image}
okay... the supply zone that i marked i write that is reaction to level. Demand you are right...i have sometimes problem to see levels and reaction when is not valley or peak...
  • #2,968
  • Edited 1:04pm Mar 12, 2017 12:29pm | Edited 1:04pm
Quoting Michele86
Hi guys, what do you mean about this...AUDCHF. Now price holding daily demand level, but is so closed potential supply that did no profit margin. Weekly monthly - uptrend {image} Daily - demand level inside weekly vs daily downtrend momentum. {image}
Bullish sentiment here:
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To break the rules you must first master them.
  • #2,969
  • Mar 12, 2017 3:04pm Mar 12, 2017 3:04pm
Quoting Elios
AUD /USD : A pullback Curve timeframe (weekly / orange color) : The trend is up. The upside trendline has been broken. The SZ with dotted line is not fresh, so we choose the higher fresh zone. Under this weekly SZ there is a fresh Daily SZ. The price location is near the proximal line of the weekly DZ. Trend timeframe (daily / blue color) : On the daily chart we can see that the trend is down. The Daily SZ which is above the price is not fresh. The Daily DZ is embeded in the weekly DZ. Execution timeframe (4H / red color) : Uprend (a SZ removed...
Hi Elios

Since the Weekly and the Daily trend & momentum is down, is it not prudent to wait for a confirmation on the 4H TF before going long ?
I am personally trying to understand when it is a good time to wait for confirmation.
In all honesty I seem to have lost trades that just seemed to runaway while I waited for confirmation

Cheers
Live life king size !
  • #2,970
  • Edited 5:38pm Mar 12, 2017 4:18pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting foxtrader16
{quote} Hi Elios Since the Weekly and the Daily trend & momentum is down, is it not prudent to wait for a confirmation on the 4H TF before going long ? I am personally trying to understand when it is a good time to wait for confirmation. In all honesty I seem to have lost trades that just seemed to runaway while I waited for confirmation Cheers

The weekly trend is not down it is a bullish sideways trend.
If the price retest the 4H DZ and you go long, I think that this trade would be according to rules of SAD method.
a) The 4H trend is up.
b) The 4H DZ is fresh, is low on the curve, has a 2:1 move away and there is a profit potential.

What other confirmation do you want? (I am sorry if I dont understand the term 'confirmation" as it is used by the SAD method).

For me another confirmation would be the brake of the daily trendline, and another one the reverse of the daily downtrend. So if you fill like that, you have to wait for them.You will loose some pips but you will be more sure for your trade. The distance between the weekly SZ and DZ is 400 pips. If you will wait for these 2 confirnations, there will remain enough profit for you.You will not miss the "train".
  • #2,971
  • Mar 12, 2017 9:10pm Mar 12, 2017 9:10pm
Hello Elios, Akt and fellow traders,

My analysis on AUD/USD discussion, for your comments too.

Thanks

Weekly: Uptrend (down momentum broken + Supply Zone removed), Demand Zone is respected.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 33 KB


Daily: Uptrend (down momentum broken + Supply Zone removed), unable to draw up momentum line yet, prices forming higher low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 52 KB


H4: Downtrend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 31 KB


Conclusion: Wait for prices to reach H4 Supply Zone / Daily Demand Zone for decision.

Quoting Elios
AUD /USD : A pullback Curve timeframe (weekly / orange color) : The trend is bullish sideways trend. The upside trendline has been broken. The SZ with dotted line is not fresh, so we choose the higher fresh zone. Under this weekly SZ there is a fresh Daily SZ. The price location is near the proximal line of the weekly DZ. Trend timeframe (daily / blue color) : On the daily chart we can see that the trend is down. The Daily SZ which is above the price is not fresh. The Daily DZ is embeded in the weekly DZ. Execution timeframe (4H / red color) : Uprend...
"The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solv
  • #2,972
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:26pm Mar 12, 2017 11:26pm
Hello AKT and fellow traders,

Are you guys on EURAUD trade below?

Weekly trend - DOWN
Daily trend - DOWN
H4 trend - UP

Price seems to be reacting to Weekly SZ.
Waiting for the price to break H4 momentum up-trend line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDWeekly.png Size: 33 KB
  • #2,973
  • Edited 9:28am Mar 13, 2017 4:42am | Edited 9:28am
Quoting shyean
Hello Elios, Akt and fellow traders, My analysis on AUD/USD discussion, for your comments too. Thanks Weekly: Uptrend (down momentum broken + Supply Zone removed), Demand Zone is respected. {image} Daily: Uptrend (down momentum broken + Supply Zone removed), unable to draw up momentum line yet, prices forming higher low. {image} H4: Downtrend {image} Conclusion: Wait for prices to reach H4 Supply Zone / Daily Demand Zone for decision. {quote}
Hello shyean

Your trendlines are far away from the current price action. They are trenlines of the "past" not of the "now". I used to draw such trendlines and Akt, with his comments corrected me..... so you have to be in the "present".

Hope this helps
  • #2,974
  • Mar 13, 2017 4:52am Mar 13, 2017 4:52am
Quoting Elios
So we anticipate that the Uptrend will resume and the possible targets are: - short term : the 4H SZ - medium term : the daily non fresh SZ - longer term : the Weekly fresh SZ or the daily fresh SZ. {image} {image} {image}
First target almost reached
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDmicroH4.png Size: 41 KB
  • #2,975
  • Mar 13, 2017 5:12am Mar 13, 2017 5:12am
Quoting Elios
{quote} First target almost reached {image}
Hello Elios, it is a nice trading record you have.

I hope you can keep on updating your trading journal so that we can learn.

Thank you.
  • #2,976
  • Edited 10:25am Mar 13, 2017 10:11am | Edited 10:25am
Quoting thiha
{quote} Hello Elios, it is a nice trading record you have. I hope you can keep on updating your trading journal so that we can learn. Thank you.
Thanks thiha but I am learning too ... like you... and I have some good trades and some bad trades. I am trying to evaluate the bad trades to learn the lesson which they want to give me.

Keeping a trading journal is very good for your trading but I am not disciplined enough.

Posting some of your trades here is very useful because you exhibit your trading in front of other people eyes, who judges you.
So ... a) you learn to be careful to follow the rules .... and b) you are learning from other people comments.
  • #2,977
  • Mar 13, 2017 12:46pm Mar 13, 2017 12:46pm
Quoting Elios
AUD /USD : A pullback Curve timeframe (weekly / orange color) : The trend is bullish sideways trend. The upside trendline has been broken. The SZ with dotted line is not fresh, so we choose the higher fresh zone. Under this weekly SZ there is a fresh Daily SZ. The price location is near the proximal line of the weekly DZ. Trend timeframe (daily / blue color) : On the daily chart we can see that the trend is down. The Daily SZ which is above the price is not fresh. The Daily DZ is embeded in the weekly DZ. Execution timeframe (4H / red color) : Uprend...
Hello Elios
Thank you for the work you put into this analysis. Much appreciated

If I may, watch that weekly DZ. until the big SZ that has been holding price in this big sideways market is broken
then the weekly demand zone you highlighted is a DZ that is high up in a sideways market and so is lower probability
I wish it had removed that supply or at least made a higher high but it did neither before price retraced into it.

So it's a tight one, no real profit margin either.
There will be traders looking to short this rally if it gets close to that 0.7700 level

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #2,978
  • Mar 13, 2017 12:52pm Mar 13, 2017 12:52pm
Quoting shyean
Hello Elios, Akt and fellow traders, My analysis on AUD/USD discussion, for your comments too. Thanks Weekly: Uptrend (down momentum broken + Supply Zone removed), Demand Zone is respected. {image} Daily: Uptrend (down momentum broken + Supply Zone removed), unable to draw up momentum line yet, prices forming higher low. {image} H4: Downtrend {image} Conclusion: Wait for prices to reach H4 Supply Zone / Daily Demand Zone for decision. {quote}
Hello shyean

A note for you to consider

best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily.PNG Size: 104 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #2,979
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:50pm Mar 13, 2017 1:50pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Elios Thank you for the work you put into this analysis. Much appreciated If I may, watch that weekly DZ. until the big SZ that has been holding price in this big sideways market is broken then the weekly demand zone you highlighted is a DZ that is high up in a sideways market and so is lower probability I wish it had removed that supply or at least made a higher high but it did neither before price retraced into it. So it's a tight one, no real profit margin either. There will be traders looking to short this rally if it gets close...
Thanks Akt for your comment ...but why do you consider that is yet strong a weekly supply zone which has penetrated or touched 22 times ?

I am waiting also for another one daily downside swing but after that my scenario is propable.
So we are waiting for the downswing and we are watching if the weekly DZ will hold.

Thanks again
  • #2,980
  • Mar 13, 2017 6:37pm Mar 13, 2017 6:37pm
Hello Akt (and other thread members),
I have been reading this thread for a couple of weeks now and have found a lot of very insightful posts on SAD. I have been trading forex pairs in what seems
to be a close similarity to what you are doing here, so would like to share my views. The audusd is a simple one for me to illustrate how I have been
looking at the markets. The highlighted yellow zones I have been looking at, are areas the larger players eg Citi's, Saxo, Deusch etc banks position themselves
as zones of distribution towards another area of accumulation (supply). The demand factor, in my humble opinion may often be caused by these larger players wishing to unload their long or short audusd pairs at a higher or lower zone, from then which to distribute and do the whole thing over again. I view the spikes above and below the zones as stop running etc to take out the weak hands so when it is time to drive (demand)the price move up or down, the smaller players (retail) is leaning the
wrong way. At any rate, this pair has been fairly range bound over the past 2 years so it lends itself to this type of trade.
I would appreciate any and all comments, including if I am merely polluting this thread to leave(I would respect your wishes).
good luck to all,
regards
goma
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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