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  • #14,841
  • Mar 8, 2017 2:46pm Mar 8, 2017 2:46pm
W. you have been on the right side of Shiny and Nasty, I will need a good reversal into next week to b/e or better on my GLD kitty....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,842
  • Mar 8, 2017 4:07pm Mar 8, 2017 4:07pm
Quoting The Fool
Hey thanks for the offer of refuge man, I might need it. I have never been to the Kona side. Used to vacay in Hilo, though, took the kids to Honolii to surf all day, play with the stinky turtles.....sigh. I am still just trying to line something up, tradewise, in no hurry. I have various spreads set for action in the Ides of March week, set a while back & long shots now, but they were cheap. Sometimes the best trade no trade and that applies to me when I am spread thin in the day jobs load, like now. Mai Tais & hot sun sure sounds nice though....enjoy....

Ya man I do love the hilo side too. Much more of a old Hawaii vibe there. It is actually really up and coming. They are finally rebuilding from the big tsunami 50 years ago. The Grand Naniloa on Banyan Dr. was sold in Bankruptcy and got a 30 Mil makeover. The Rock and co. stayed there recently while filming Jumanji. Property is cheap on the Hilo and Hamakua coast side too(sustainable farms and all that).

Crude finally shit the bed like I though it would. Got 16 contracts short at an aggregate of 54.28. So far its a 13:1 return. I'm just gonna keep adding to this thing all the way down to 36ish. Maybe if it hits Ill close the trade and buy 50 acres of farmland over on Hilo side and just entirely get disconnected from the shitshow of a world we are living in.

In other news the shiny may bounce from here but I cant imagine very far before continuing on its trek to 980-1000ish. Got my face ripped off a bull call spread on APA. Vol got crushed and so did price. Ended up eating a loss 4x bigger than my theoretical loss when I got into it. Gotta somehow figure out how to prevent that crap from happening.

I went and saw Logan. Good fuckin movie. Made me think about shorting MRVL... so I did. got in at the close today at 15.85... bought a grip of May 15 puts for .45.. gonna risk a buck and see if we can get down to $12 before resuming the uptrend. Another 10:1 R:R


We will see.

Aloha and Ill have that Mai Tai ready for you.
  • #14,843
  • Mar 8, 2017 4:09pm Mar 8, 2017 4:09pm
Quoting The Fool
W. you have been on the right side of Shiny and Nasty, I will need a good reversal into next week to b/e or better on my GLD kitty....

Ya I kinda figured the chances were good those turds had weight that would eventually drag em to the bottom of the toilet... Just keep getting short on pullbacks or say fuck it and short the continuation breakouts... I'm gonna do both, doesn't look like any institutional buying interest on either one for quite a ways down
  • #14,844
  • Mar 9, 2017 1:37am Mar 9, 2017 1:37am
Quoting Wulfgar
Property is cheap on the Hilo and Hamakua coast side too(sustainable farms and all that). Aloha and Ill have that Mai Tai ready for you.
Maholo, bro. I want to be that guy sitting in a sea of crispy black lava that miraculously flowed around his shack & chicken coops & left them unscathed. I liked it up around Volcano where it was cool and misty.

well if we can get thru the weekend with no tweety bombshells maybe next week the spoos'll explode on the sure thing rake hike? maybe that is priced in up to $2,400? Maybe some shtf before then and spooks the FOMC and they don't deliver? Latter case gotta be a long shot but it would really open the trap door for equities.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,845
  • Mar 9, 2017 3:08am Mar 9, 2017 3:08am
Quoting The Fool
16 weeks of dead dick vix....shit is due for a pop
hft run markets need something big n hairy to move the vix anymore
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,846
  • Mar 9, 2017 10:55am Mar 9, 2017 10:55am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Maholo, bro. I want to be that guy sitting in a sea of crispy black lava that miraculously flowed around his shack & chicken coops & left them unscathed. I liked it up around Volcano where it was cool and misty. well if we can get thru the weekend with no tweety bombshells maybe next week the spoos'll explode on the sure thing rake hike? maybe that is priced in up to $2,400? Maybe some shtf before then and spooks the FOMC and they don't deliver? Latter case gotta be a long shot but it would really open the trap door for equities.....
Volcano is actually a pretty cool place. Oddly enough its where the least amount of Vog is. But it definitely gets cold up there. Average temp is somewhere in the high 50's year round. Most us locals have to practically wear parkas when we go there. I try to stay out of the vog. Puna, Pahoa, HPP, and south Kona al get really nasty. Ive been in kaleakekua for a day and when the vog is bad you kind of just itch all over all day long.

I definitely think the broad uptrend is still massively intact. Id like to see the spoos hit the 234.50 area or so before it seems like a good place to buy for the run to 250 and beyond. We start breaking below those and the trump speech rally was certainly the blow off top and we could see some serious speed to the downside.

I'm lookin at buying RSX(hail putin), CF, and ATI if the setup in the next day or 2. Again just playing good R:R

Added yet more to my dirty and shiny last night at London. 20 contracts short on CL from 53.55 aggregate. I saw briefly a 6 figure profit on my account. First time I ever saw that. I feel like Bobby Axelrod in Billions. Oh well, its not done yet. If it gets down to 36 I may just walk with like half a stick and fuckin never trade again. Or it could reverse and stop me out for a loss. Who the hell knows or cares? I still got my lotto tix
  • #14,847
  • Mar 9, 2017 12:38pm Mar 9, 2017 12:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}hft run markets need something big n hairy to move the vix anymore {image}

Dude I have no idea. I have vega bombs on spoos as insurance but I'm just pissin in the wind it seems like
  • #14,848
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:54am Mar 10, 2017 8:54am
SPY $240 3/10 - 3/15 calendar calls I might get out with a double today; same @$242 I will let run....stocks up but not exactly exploding on decent NFP, ffr hike on 3/15 maybe priced in? priced in to $240 cap? Dutch elections next week nbd?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,849
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:59am Mar 10, 2017 8:59am
W. do you stay up late or get up early on NFP day?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,850
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:15am Mar 10, 2017 9:15am
lucky diagonals and calendars look like this on expiry day, with rising issue maybe catch a perfect finish at the top of the P/L,. In this case that's not great because I paid alot for the spread, but a better result anyway would be hold out for letting the long calls run into next week and maybe they go itm a buck or so. SPY @$240 might be clogged up, I would have to hope for a big move on FOMC day.......
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,851
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:27am Mar 10, 2017 9:27am
Quoting The Fool
W. do you stay up late or get up early on NFP day?

Get up early.. 3:15 just to manage any bombs that drop...I typically dnt let NFP or anything deter me from taking any trades though. I just like capitulation catalysts

I'm done now... added more to nasty at 50 and shiny at 1205


still waiting on those trades I mentioned yesterday to give any price action confirmation... might take awhile... playing some big TFs
  • #14,852
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:33am Mar 10, 2017 9:33am
Quoting The Fool
SPY $240 3/10 - 3/15 calendar calls I might get out with a double today; same @$242 I will let run....stocks up but not exactly exploding on decent NFP, ffr hike on 3/15 maybe priced in? priced in to $240 cap? Dutch elections next week nbd?

Doesn't seem like any numbers really matter much these days. Election results might. I'm pretty bearish on Bunds. Dutch elections will either rout me out there or Ill take a punt with a huge R:R

cals and other range capturing trades are probably the best bet here... I can see equities getting rangebound for bit... I put some Apr 140/120 short strangles on earlier this week for almost 2.00 credit each

btw after this sunday I probably wont be getting up for NFPs when the mainland does the stupid daylight savings crap. 2:15 is rough
  • #14,853
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:40am Mar 10, 2017 9:40am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} I got the fill on a Mar 12/15 bull call spread for 1.48 a few weeks ago. on its way... I need it to move another $1 to get my target.. trade is pushing 60+ deltas and its theata positive now so maybe itll just grind the rest of the way and give me all the glories that us options players dream about
this thing kicked me in the balls for a fat loss yesterday. Might have another go at it though... It finally capitulated...I was early and stupid before... now I feel like I'm just stupid
  • #14,854
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:36pm Mar 10, 2017 9:36pm
Quoting The Fool
lucky diagonals and calendars look like this on expiry day, with rising issue maybe catch a perfect finish at the top of the P/L,. In this case that's not great because I paid alot for the spread, but a better result anyway would be hold out for letting the long calls run into next week and maybe they go itm a buck or so. SPY @$240 might be clogged up, I would have to hope for a big move on FOMC day.......
all calendars let run, Wed $240 and $242 SPY and SPX 2,400
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,855
  • Mar 11, 2017 1:15pm Mar 11, 2017 1:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}all calendars let run, Wed $240 and $242 SPY and SPX 2,400

it's probably gonna grind up close to there at least

gotta say SPY is worth a low risk punt short from just under 240 for a potential double top and a meaningful(1%+ God forbid) retracement.

I'm training myself to not look at all the macro econ catalysts happening and just focus on these low risk:high reward trades. I dont know anyone smart enough to decipher what's going to happen or how to frontrun it. My name sure as hell isnt Michael Burry.

we'll see. oh and i want to short IWM too if it double tops.
  • #14,856
  • Mar 11, 2017 4:00pm Mar 11, 2017 4:00pm
Hello, I asked a question awhile back in regards to options pricing and I am running into another misunderstanding.

If I am correct from the last response, low volatility = cheaper options. Is this correct?

I am running into stocks with low volatility yet the pricing for its options are expensive. Is there a reason that would cause this?

I would consider $KO (pic is of $KO profile) to be "cheap" in terms of its options. Is this correct?
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  • #14,857
  • Mar 11, 2017 4:01pm Mar 11, 2017 4:01pm
Now here I have $HOLX where its option pricing is roughly double than that of $KO even though metrics are similar. I am not sure why this is. Are you able to explain why they are so different in their options pricing and what addiontal metrics are needed to find options in similar prices to what $KO is offering. Here is the pic of the option profile for $HOLX. Thanks.
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  • #14,858
  • Mar 11, 2017 6:12pm Mar 11, 2017 6:12pm
Does the "low" IV need to be below the historical IV for it to be a cheap option? Here is a profile of $CSCO

Basically I am not understanding why three stocks roughly the same price per share are so varied in their option prices when their volatility is all fairly considered "low."

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  • #14,859
  • Mar 11, 2017 7:04pm Mar 11, 2017 7:04pm
Singha,

Without diving into the specifics of the names above, I would expect HOLX to be the most expensive, relatively, since it will likely have the lowest open interest in its options. The cheapest options will be those that have the lowest iv and the highest oi.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,860
  • Mar 11, 2017 7:08pm Mar 11, 2017 7:08pm
Quoting Wulfgar
it's probably gonna grind up close to there at least gotta say SPY is worth a low risk punt short from just under 240 for a potential double top and a meaningful(1%+ God forbid) retracement. .
fwiw, my gut is we will see a revisitation @ 2,400-2,420 max in the day of maybe day after the rate hike next week, then the spoos will slide. We won't see any more hot bull action until (if/when) Trumpy delivers the tax cut meat. I do not have any index trades on at all (that I can recall atm anyway) after Mar 17.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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