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Silent Service Method

  • #15,621
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:14pm Mar 10, 2017 3:14pm
Rippie -

I got your message, but as a commercial member, I am limited in only being able to send one message every day. The answer is this:

Yes, I think that the USD/JPY will continue to go higher - but longer-term. I think a pullback is going to be used to build up the momentum needed.

Long-term, I think 118.50 is a reasonable target.
  • #15,622
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:19pm Mar 10, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting clockwork71
Rippie - I got your message, but as a commercial member, I am limited in only being able to send one message every day. The answer is this: Yes, I think that the USD/JPY will continue to go higher - but longer-term. I think a pullback is going to be used to build up the momentum needed. Long-term, I think 118.50 is a reasonable target.
I am sorry you are not allowed to send more private messages, i did not know that. Sorry that you used that on me. I will continue to look at that trade and analyze and learn.
  • #15,623
  • Mar 11, 2017 5:48pm Mar 11, 2017 5:48pm
Quoting Rippie
{quote} I am sorry you are not allowed to send more private messages, i did not know that. Sorry that you used that on me. I will continue to look at that trade and analyze and learn.
No worries, feel free to message anytime. It a rule that FF instated, not me.

Let me know if there are any questions.

Chris
  • #15,624
  • Mar 11, 2017 11:21pm Mar 11, 2017 11:21pm
Anyone here trade rates? I think rates are going to set the tone of 2017. Time will tell. 2.60 is a big level...I'd be willing to bet options are pretty cheap here too...

True 10yr exposure you'd use IEF, but TLT works for 10yr/30yr treasury bet. Futures work too. My notes on TLT but they apply to any of those instruments.

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  • #15,625
  • Mar 12, 2017 1:10am Mar 12, 2017 1:10am
Quoting InfinitySL
Anyone here trade rates? I think rates are going to set the tone of 2017. Time will tell. 2.60 is a big level...I'd be willing to bet options are pretty cheap here too... True 10yr exposure you'd use IEF, but TLT works for 10yr/30yr treasury bet. Futures work too. My notes on TLT but they apply to any of those instruments. {image}
I don't trade them - but I see why you are interested in this chart.....very interesting indeed.
  • #15,626
  • Mar 12, 2017 3:04am Mar 12, 2017 3:04am
Truthfully, already looks like IEF has broken to the downside. Perhaps the play is put options.

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  • #15,627
  • Mar 12, 2017 9:02am Mar 12, 2017 9:02am
Quoting InfinitySL
Truthfully, already looks like IEF has broken to the downside. Perhaps the play is put options. {image}
longer dated i would think.....
  • #15,628
  • Mar 12, 2017 4:27pm Mar 12, 2017 4:27pm
Quoting clockwork71
{quote} No worries, feel free to message anytime. It a rule that FF instated, not me. Let me know if there are any questions. Chris
Hi Chris, I was meant to ask you. I can see now you have several times used 20 SMA and 50 EMA and 100 EMA. are these some standard indicators you use? I can see they are useful to a TA trader if many other use them. They sort of work because others use them.
  • #15,629
  • Mar 13, 2017 12:47pm Mar 13, 2017 12:47pm
Quoting Rippie
{quote} Hi Chris, I was meant to ask you. I can see now you have several times used 20 SMA and 50 EMA and 100 EMA. are these some standard indicators you use? I can see they are useful to a TA trader if many other use them. They sort of work because others use them.
THAT IS EXACTLY why I point them out. I don't believe in them at all - but it is because so many others do - that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. I use them as tertiary indicators at best. I still believe in the where, and the candle reaction more than anything else.
  • #15,630
  • Mar 13, 2017 12:47pm Mar 13, 2017 12:47pm
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  • #15,631
  • Mar 16, 2017 9:52pm Mar 16, 2017 9:52pm
YY... for some reason every time i read that ticker i feel like i'm saying "WHY?! WHY!?" very dramatically. Anyway, found the chart interesting...

-SL

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  • #15,632
  • Mar 18, 2017 5:10pm Mar 18, 2017 5:10pm
Quoting InfinitySL
YY... for some reason every time i read that ticker i feel like i'm saying "WHY?! WHY!?" very dramatically. Anyway, found the chart interesting... -SL {image}
It's a perfect 50-50 play. I mean, if it breaks to the downside of that pinbar, then its a sell. On the other hand - it's a buy if it breaks higher. I would follow whatever happens. (I am actually on vacation at the moment so I'm not follow much to be honest.
  • #15,633
  • Mar 19, 2017 4:24pm Mar 19, 2017 4:24pm
Hi Clockwork,

I have some questions around doing S/R levels. On the attached chart GBP/USD on the weekly time frame. I am curious as to how you would do the S/R levels.

1.28 seems to be a swing high resistance level to me
1.20 seems to be a swing low resistance level to me.

1.26 & 1.22 seems to also be good levels but would they be minor / B+ areas because they are not swing high or swing low?

1.24 I am not sure about. there is clearly something happening in that area but it is sort of right in the middle of everything.

1.30 would actually look much better if i changed it to 1.29. but not if one is better than the other.

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  • #15,634
  • Mar 19, 2017 7:57pm Mar 19, 2017 7:57pm
Quoting Rippie
Hi Clockwork, I have some questions around doing S/R levels. On the attached chart GBP/USD on the weekly time frame. I am curious as to how you would do the S/R levels. 1.28 seems to be a swing high resistance level to me 1.20 seems to be a swing low resistance level to me. 1.26 & 1.22 seems to also be good levels but would they be minor / B+ areas because they are not swing high or swing low? 1.24 I am not sure about. there is clearly something happening in that area but it is sort of right in the middle of everything. 1.30 would actually look...
As a general rule: I prefer to use 500 point lines, meaning 1.30, 1.35, etc. However, the market doesn't always behave. In this case, I think the 1.28 area makes a lot of sense, and I think that if you look close enough at the daily - the 1.24 level has resistance all the way to the 1.26 area. In this pair though, I think the whole idea of "Article 50" is messing with the market. There are people wanting to short when that actually happens. I think the reality is that it will be the absolute bottom of the downtrend when it does. If you can get your hands on a monthly chart going back decades, 1.15 is even more supportive than the 1.20 level is. I would buy with both hands down there if we get the chance.....don't know we will though.

These types of 'multi-level' areas generally happen when there is a lot of confusion. I can't think of a pair with more attached to it than this one.

As a side note, I am in the Bahamas, and it's horrible for a trader. The BSD is pegged to the USD at 1 to 1. Yeah, I can assure you that there is no real reason for that. :-)
  • #15,635
  • Mar 20, 2017 3:59am Mar 20, 2017 3:59am
Quoting clockwork71
{quote} If you can get your hands on a monthly chart going back decades, 1.15 is even more supportive than the 1.20 level is. I would buy with both hands down there if we get the chance.....don't know we will though.
Hi Clockwork, on GBPUSD i do not see the price has ever reached 1.15. on my charts 1.20 seems to be the lowest.
  • #15,636
  • Mar 20, 2017 7:11am Mar 20, 2017 7:11am
Quoting Rippie
{quote} Hi Clockwork, on GBPUSD i do not see the price has ever reached 1.15. on my charts 1.20 seems to be the lowest.
I don't have it in front of me, but its there. Maybe in the early 90s?
  • #15,637
  • Mar 21, 2017 1:54pm Mar 21, 2017 1:54pm
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  • #15,638
  • Mar 21, 2017 4:04pm Mar 21, 2017 4:04pm
SELL
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  • #15,639
  • Mar 22, 2017 1:31am Mar 22, 2017 1:31am
Quoting clockwork71
March 22 signal
Hi Chris,
Just a quick question about this signal. I can see today that the next day candle is bearish but would you wait until this days candle are done and over and then look at if it is bullish or bearish and maybe take a trade accordingly?
Looking at the daily chart i can see this area looks like it acts nicely as resistance but on the weekly chart it looks less ovbvious, certainly not at a swing high or swing low. What made you look at this pair and do a signal?
  • #15,640
  • Mar 22, 2017 2:31am Mar 22, 2017 2:31am
I think that's a good place to shop
USD/JPY BUY
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