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There is no such thing as technical analysis

  • #81
  • Mar 8, 2017 3:01pm Mar 8, 2017 3:01pm
Quoting Nabz
Its naive to think lines drawn on chart will stop price from rising or dropping. Only demand and supply moves price. I once mistakenly entered a market sell order instead of limit for 200,000 shares, the price of the stock dropped 20% in seconds. It broke all so called supports. If only price had stopped at trendline, I would've lost a lot less money that day
what's your definition of demand and supply?

people draw these lines to anticipate the supply/demand..do you have access to real time book of order flows? no? then you're just like the rest of us clueless traders. we try to anticipate those levels with lines..

you're a techie and you don't even know it.
  • #82
  • Mar 8, 2017 3:52pm Mar 8, 2017 3:52pm

Someone used to post a picture of a guy pissing in these kinds of situations. Where is he? It's time he posted that. lol


Why do you guys fighting over BS. I think some guys think their reputations are on the line here on FF if they don't win at any BS arguments. Who cares!! No one gives a damn about reputation here. The only thing that is important is your account balance. If someone thinks something is true and if they want to help to enlighten something they can only try to do so. If the other guy accepts and wants to know more you can keep on otherwise why do you bother or start attacking. That's ridiculous when some people take some claims too serious and try to prove others wrong as if it had an impact on their lives, carriers etc. calm down guys, who cares if someone believes in TA or any other methods. The only important subject in this business is if you make money. That's all that matters.

  • #83
  • Mar 8, 2017 5:14pm Mar 8, 2017 5:14pm
Quoting RondaRousey
Technical analysis is art: {image} Good art makes money
I'd buy this painting looks almost like Mone
  • #84
  • Mar 8, 2017 5:38pm Mar 8, 2017 5:38pm
Technical analysis = crowd psychology translated into price patterns.

Humans tend to react similar in similar situations over and over again. If you learn how to exploit these human reactions, you have a long term edge over the crowd.
  • #85
  • Mar 9, 2017 3:29am Mar 9, 2017 3:29am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Right so you have moved from claiming "i am right and everyone is wrong" to claiming to have the holy grail! Can i suggest you go back and read again because i have made no such claims - your words fella, not mine. You say you have been a contributor to this forum for seven years, what exactly are you contributing here then? you posted a chart, i contributed my thoughts followed by a barrage of absolute rubbish and defence as though i stabbed you in the heart. Maybe i missed something here, this is a forum where dialogue is exchanged, this...

here's your proof
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: proof.png Size: 233 KB



a trade i'm currently in ....taken based on nothing but technical analysis. confluence of Pivot line, Trendline and horizontal resistance line.
Real time trade ... not in hind sight
  • #86
  • Mar 9, 2017 3:47am Mar 9, 2017 3:47am
Quoting Koop
{quote} here's your proof {image} a trade i'm currently in ....taken based on nothing but technical analysis. confluence of Pivot line, Trendline and horizontal resistance line. Real time trade ... not in hind sight
This is like showing me a diamond and saying you found this over here in the ground as evidence of the ground there being full of diamonds!

Just want to highlight that I never said TA doesn't work but did say that it doesn't work for 90 to 95 percent of people. Showing me one trade is nonsensical as I can show you 3 trades I am in right now that's all positive. On its own it is meaningless, you need to show a track record for the evidence to have any credibility.

In my experience in TA you have a lower trade success rate because individual trade setups have no guarantee of success and you have to take them all since its the cost of business. The thing is if you lose a trade then you have to make that loss back and more to get anywhere. This cost adds up and is in my opinion the cause of the high failure rate.
  • #87
  • Mar 9, 2017 4:22am Mar 9, 2017 4:22am
Quoting EcoTrader
The thing is if you lose a trade then you have to make that loss back and more to get anywhere..
Apologies for butting in here but this statement above is not entirely true. A critical part of any trading methodology that bases its entry signals on technical analysis is the aspect of risk/reward. It's another concept that's been carpet-bombed by the naysayers for all sorts of reasons, however, I've personally never read anyone talk about RR in terms of what it can also be, which is a state of mind. By that I mean it's the state of mind to analyse charts and seek out entries that have the potential to win big win they win and small when they lose.

Due to the thin markets of the two pairs I trade I've had to take a good long look at M1 and been quite surprised that on a daily basis, there are at least two circa 10R trades per day. Losses in this case are just not an issue as long as the trader has decent money-management in place. I'd say that losses only become an issue for those traders that don't really have a clue what they're doing, have no money-management in place, and over-leverage themselves. It wouldn't surprise me if these are also the people that blaze into forums screaming and shouting that everything's "shit". I dunno, it's always someone or something else, never them.
  • #88
  • Mar 9, 2017 5:14am Mar 9, 2017 5:14am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} This is like showing me a diamond and saying you found this over here in the ground as evidence of the ground there being full of diamonds! Just want to highlight that I never said TA doesn't work but did say that it doesn't work for 90 to 95 percent of people. Showing me one trade is nonsensical as I can show you 3 trades I am in right now that's all positive. On its own it is meaningless, you need to show a track record for the evidence to have any credibility. In my experience in TA you have a lower trade success rate because individual...
What an arrogant little shit you are. And I bet your classmates shun your company. Further, discussion with you is pointless since, like the narcissist you appear to be, everything you say must be right and contrary views dismissed out of hand.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #89
  • Mar 9, 2017 5:18am Mar 9, 2017 5:18am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Apologies for butting in here but this statement above is not entirely true. A critical part of any trading methodology that bases its entry signals on technical analysis is the aspect of risk/reward. It's another concept that's been carpet-bombed by the naysayers for all sorts of reasons, however, I've personally never read anyone talk about RR in terms of what it can also be, which is a state of mind. By that I mean it's the state of mind to analyse charts and seek out entries that have the potential to win big win they win and small when...
You still have to earn back the losses and more to be profitable and you can only guarantee guarantee <n> reward in hindsight. You don't know which trade will yield the greatest potential and applying stricter money management comes at the cost of being stopped out prematurely. Price doesn't flow in straight lines so this makes strict money management difficult to apply while trying to give room for maximum yield. So therefore, while you might have a strong case for 10R you have to be more loose with money management to achieve it in many cases. Sure you will have text book cases (the usual cherry picked ones in examples) where you can apply strict money management and price moves in a straight line to your target. I cannot buy into the fact that its as simple as you state it is but feel free to show us an example every day (before and after) where you are able to achieve 10R to cover all your losses and earn profit. You don't need to disclose account details and this isn't a challenge to prove me wrong. I am putting it out there in a more rhetorical context as i doubt anyone on this planet is able to achieve high reward (>3) low risk trades day-in day-out day trading.

Why do you only trade 2 pairs? you are missing a lot of potential in paring strong against weak (just curious). I spend most of my time working on strongest to weakest against a basket to ensure i get maximum potential. If you just trade 2 pairs you are only going to get maximum potential when the situation arises and that isn't daily.
  • #90
  • Mar 9, 2017 5:20am Mar 9, 2017 5:20am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} What an arrogant little shit you are. And I bet your classmates shun your company. Further, discussion with you is pointless since, like the narcissist you appear to be, everything you say must be right and contrary views dismissed out of hand.
thank you, hope you have a nice day too. Don't forget to take your pills
  • #91
  • Mar 9, 2017 6:07am Mar 9, 2017 6:07am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} you can only guarantee guarantee <n> reward in hindsight.
But that's the same with any methodology including yours surely?

Quoting EcoTrader
I cannot buy into the fact that its as simple as you state it is but feel free to show us an example every day (before and after) where you are able to achieve 10R to cover all your losses and earn profit. You don't need to disclose account details and this isn't a challenge to prove me wrong. I am putting it out there in a more rhetorical context as i doubt anyone on this planet is able to achieve high reward (>3) low risk trades day-in day-out day trading.
Don't believe I'm inferring it's simple. Far from it. I'm also not suggesting that I earn 10R every day because I don't. But that doesn't detract from the fact that the market structure (call it the cherry-picks if you like) is there. For instance, think about what happens at daily high/low - on a very low TF there's good chance of a reversal including all of the market structure that occurs to set such things up. If I were to sum up my trading I'd say it's three things:

1. Double tops/bottoms
2. Reversals
3. Entry into anticipated swing points

I'm always looking left for market structure/direction, and always enter retests with PA confirmation. All of this is TA based. Regarding Fundamentals I honestly couldn't give a hoot.

I'm not willing to broadcast a kind of TV show of my daily trading activities, aside from anything else, my entries are candle-specific and as much as I've shared and been very open here on this and other forums I've no intention of giving away something that's cost me so much time and effort to achieve. Having said that, feel free to start a thread and show us an example every day (before and after) with a run down of your fundamental analysis at the point of entry. Again, this isn't a challenge. I'm genuinely interested in how you do it.

Quoting EcoTrader
Why do you only trade 2 pairs? you are missing a lot of potential in paring strong against weak (just curious). I spend most of my time working on strongest to weakest against a basket to ensure i get maximum potential. If you just trade 2 pairs you are only going to get maximum potential when the situation arises and that isn't daily.
I guess there's some things in life we have no real answer to. I was equally curious why you gave up on TA after only one year (forgive me if I'm wrong on this fact but I'm sure I read it in one of your posts). Currently, 2 pairs provides a satisfactory equilibrium to all aspects of my daily routine. But yea, I acknowledge that what works for me won't necessarily work for someone else.
  • #92
  • Mar 9, 2017 6:57am Mar 9, 2017 6:57am
Quoting simond2002
But that's the same with any methodology including yours surely?
yes and no. Yes when i trade an individual news release but then again i still do that very differently. I base stops and targets on the context of the news release and the average daily range. This can offer a 1/1 or 2/1 but i don't go beyond the average and therefore don't over scope. No on longer term trades where i target percentage change in price and this is typically greater than 3/1 but not on a single trade but many trades in the same position (taking targets and getting back in later). I am still trading a yen position that i started last year.


Quoting simond2002
I've no intention of giving away something that's cost me so much time and effort to achieve.
I completely understand and hence the rhetorical reference to doing it.

Quoting simond2002
Having said that, feel free to start a thread and show us an example every day (before and after) with a run down of your fundamental analysis at the point of entry. Again, this isn't a challenge. I'm genuinely interested in how you do it.
The stuff i read and research would put you and most others here asleep. I spend my evenings running through economic numbers, central bank statements and speeches, reading premium news content, and reading analyst opinions. Throughout i take notes which i use for quick references as it is difficult to recall everything. Sunday nights i plan the week ahead in terms of the calendars (economic and option dates -if any). Each session (uk, usa) I catch up on sentiment and draft up strongest and weakest pairs to trade against and pair this with news. Before any given news release i have a plan of what pairs to trade either way if the data comes out as unexpected. I also trade oil through cad and milk through kiwi both on inventory and prices. All the intra-day trading i do is based on pricing in unexpected data and this can feed additional positions in long term trades or offer short term corrections (pricing in). that's it really



Quoting simond2002
Currently, 2 pairs provides a satisfactory equilibrium to all aspects of my daily routine
understood - each to their own. For me i derive opportunity from pairing strong against weak off the back of the market pricing in changes. If i were to limit myself to 2 pairs i would be sitting on my hands at times when i could be making money. My biggest problem is giving this time during work hours and don't catch all the opportunities i would like.
  • #93
  • Edited 5:18pm Mar 9, 2017 4:52pm | Edited 5:18pm
Nabz, every time you are analyzing a chart, you are doing technical analysis of that chart. Please, understand this!

What you are referring to as TA is actually a form of TA. So you cannot say that TA doesn't work, because TA is the ONLY thing that works!

I really hate how TA is adveritsed to the public and what you really want to say is that TA the way it is sold to us does not work. You are 100% correct! Because just think about it, why would they want you to learn trading in this specific way?
  • #94
  • Mar 9, 2017 5:09pm Mar 9, 2017 5:09pm
Quoting trickshady
EcoTrader, every time you are analyzing a chart, you are doing technical analysis of that chart. Please, understand this! What you are referring to as TA is actually a form of TA. So you cannot say that TA doesn't work, because TA is the ONLY thing that works! I really hate how TA is adveritsed to the public and what you really want to say is that TA the way it is sold to us does not work. You are 100% correct! Because just think about it, why would they want you to learn trading in this specific way?
For the nth time I never said it doesn't work....might help if you read what I have said before assuming
  • #95
  • Mar 9, 2017 5:14pm Mar 9, 2017 5:14pm
Quoting trickshady
EcoTrader, every time you are analyzing a chart, you are doing technical analysis of that chart. Please, understand this! What you are referring to as TA is actually a form of TA. So you cannot say that TA doesn't work, because TA is the ONLY thing that works! I really hate how TA is adveritsed to the public and what you really want to say is that TA the way it is sold to us does not work. You are 100% correct! Because just think about it, why would they want you to learn trading in this specific way?
Well said. Even the best Fundamental traders employ a bit or part of technical analysis whether they like to admit it or not.
Or do you fundamental guys just click the buy or sell button once you perform your analysis and establish a bias? You do not check the charts for anything else? Just buy or sell regardless of where price is currently at? no anticipation of a brief correction that you can at least try to measure through TA?
  • #96
  • Mar 9, 2017 5:20pm Mar 9, 2017 5:20pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} For the nth time I never said it doesn't work....might help if you read what I have said before assuming
LOL, my bad EcoTrader. I thought you were the starter of the thread. I meant to say Nabz. I edited it lol.
  • #97
  • Mar 11, 2017 5:31am Mar 11, 2017 5:31am
Quoting tunera
{quote} Candlesticks formations are the most voodoo of all indicators! No offense intended!!
No offense taken, why would i take offense.

For me, a blank candlestick chart on its own - just like a bar line or candlestick chart plastered with one or more indicators that are used for trade entry and trade exit decision making purposes - is/are barely as useful as a chocolate fireguard.
  • #98
  • Apr 12, 2017 11:46am Apr 12, 2017 11:46am
For me, technical analysis means support and resistant levels and important swing points of market! Besides, I decide on market trend status according to my news analysis! Actually, I apply here a combo trading strategy in order to my technical and fundamental market analysis. Right now, I am earning 12-15% monthly profit quite comfortably!
  • #99
  • Apr 12, 2017 6:36pm Apr 12, 2017 6:36pm
I usually eat popcorn & watch FF but today I'm bored so let me join the fray.

To the OP

I know a trader here who uses QA, I could argue that price literally bends to her will (I call her Queen of the Markets)

I know yet another trader who trades using TA (a standard deviation channel) & has managed a return of over 150% in 2 yrs with a max drawdown of less than 7% ! (legend worthy returns IMHO)

I also know of yet another trader who trades only bare charts (arguably TA) & was able to predict the future (yes predict) EURUSD pattern move (happened over the span of 2yrs) with uncanny accuracy here on FF, man aces trades like Lionel Messi (I call him the Crystal Ball)

I have just stumbled on another trader today who uses your beloved FA and can even survive a blackswan event with a drawdown of a mere 60% (trading god status! IMHO)

In my 10yrs or so of lurking around forex and 6yrs around FF, the above people are the only people who's exploits out matched my skepticism. They all trade with very different concepts & belifs.

Guess what, despite the above, logic says price does not give a Zimbabwean dollar what you reason for placing a trade is, it will do what it pleases after you enter.

The only question is: What do you do when price shows you an unfavorable hand? This is what differentiates the wheat from the chaff.

I conjecture that one might enter a trade because his/her dog farted and still out perform another who considered all the fundamentals TA & QA combined
  • #100
  • May 23, 2017 3:17pm May 23, 2017 3:17pm
It amazes me that people who are so "good" with technical analysis. Get so angry when someone says that technical analysis doesn't work.

It's a very sensetive topic for them. It usually happens when people are so frustrated that X doesn't work for them, even though they spent so much time on learning that X (from people who claim that X works for them), because they themselves start to doubt it, which makes them frustrated due to the cognitive dissonance inside of their minds.
On the one hand they know that it works for sure (because some guys claim that they are successful with X, and people take pride in following them), on the other hand they think that X doesn't work due to their logic telling them that doing the same thing over and over again which causes them to fail - wouldn't change anything.
They try to find a problem in themselves, because the "successful" guys say that if it doesn't work for others, than the problem is with them rather than X. Blind hope mixed with long term series of failures is a painful thing to bear.

Can you imagine a successful professional boxer getting pissed of when someone says that boxing doesn't work ?
He would probably just laugh.
Now imagine the reaction of some mumbo jumbo exotic fighting style "guru" when someone says that his style doesn't work ?
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