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Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

  • #10,621
  • Mar 7, 2017 7:20am Mar 7, 2017 7:20am
Quoting gelbear
Hidden
I know what is wrong.
It can be solved with my use of the IGNORE feature.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,623
  • Edited 11:42am Mar 7, 2017 10:49am | Edited 11:42am
Well looks like we lost one.
Just how it goes.
Some people just are not cut out for trading.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,624
  • Mar 7, 2017 11:49am Mar 7, 2017 11:49am
Quoting TooSlow
Well looks like we lost one. Just how it goes. Some people just are not cut out for trading.
He kinda asked for it... Should have zipped it. Begging for answers he could have read for himself. Even after being given intelligent feedback, he pursued an argument. So, there you go!
  • #10,625
  • Mar 7, 2017 12:05pm Mar 7, 2017 12:05pm
Hi guys,
I am interesting in testing this system, just got a question.
What is the % winning of this system?
thanks.
Ariel
  • #10,626
  • Mar 7, 2017 12:28pm Mar 7, 2017 12:28pm
Take the challenge and See yourself

We van Start together next week
Everyday better.
  • #10,627
  • Mar 7, 2017 1:23pm Mar 7, 2017 1:23pm
Quoting Arielfx01
Hi guys, I am interesting in testing this system, just got a question. What is the % winning of this system? thanks.
Attached Image


Then read the thread.
Surely you do not believe you are the first to ask that question.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,628
  • Mar 7, 2017 4:14pm Mar 7, 2017 4:14pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} This answers your own question. It's a new higher open, any previous high(er) open is now binned. If it is also a breakout candle then it wouldn't be traded however.
Thank you, sensei #2! I guess this method best works during session overlap between US and Europe since it is the most volatile trading time of the day, where most likely the daily highs and lows will occur. How many hours per day do you usually spend to trade using this method?

Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Hi gelbear, let me see if I can throw some light on this for you. Please refer to the copy of your chart below. Because it is an M15 chart, I am assuming that you are using the M15 as your "trigger time frame", so you are looking for M15 candles to open in the area of interest. So lets look at each candle.....one step at a time....starting with candle "A". As you know, candle "A" was the first candle of the new hour. As it was the Highest H1 Open for the day, it printed as the Highest H1 Open on the indicator. As you can see, price rose up, and would have also moved the Daily High price of the indicator as it rose up. So, JUST BEFORE candle "A" closed, it would have shown with both the Highest H1 Open....and....the Daily High . So.....when candle "B" opened, it DID open within our area of interest, so it was a valid setup according to the rules. No problem there at all. But that set up became INVALID (according to the rules) when candle "B" made a NEW DAILY HIGH. If a candle makes a new daily high, it is considered as a BREAKOUT candle, and breakouts should be TRADED WITH CAUTION. So, if we followed that rule, we may have acted with caution.....and waited. So we have waited until candle "C" opens, to see if it prints as a valid setup.....and as you can see, it DID open in our area of interest (between the Highest H1 Open price......and.....the Daily High Price. So candle "C" gives us a valid entry according to the rules, so a SELL at MARKET entry would have been taken once the ASK price(NOT the BID price for a sell trade)crossed the Highest H1 Open price at 0.75903. As you can see, candle "D" eventually dropped away down to about 0.75871, before candle "E" and "F" took price back up.....and the candles after would have stopped out your trade. We also have the rule where we would move our stop to Breake Even +1 pip when price gets to 5 pips in our favour, but this only travelled about 3 pips in our favour, so no luck there. WHY. Well.....firstly....it doesn't appear to me that you did anything wrong with your entry, except it does look like you may have entered a bit early, and not on the HIGHEST H1 OPEN price. And so long as you recognised candle "B" as a BREAKOUT candle, and took your entry off candle "C", then that's okay. BUT.....UNFORTUNATELY....they don't ALL win. The rules are in place to try and REDUCE losses, but there is always going to be some. Otherwise, we would all be zillionaires I hope this helps explain a few things that you may not have known. If you have any questions, please ask, and I or someone else will try to help out. Cheers Michael {image}
Thank you for this Sir MG.
  • #10,629
  • Mar 7, 2017 4:48pm Mar 7, 2017 4:48pm
Quoting DavidApol
{quote} Thank you, sensei #2! I guess this method best works during session overlap between US and Europe since it is the most volatile trading time of the day, where most likely the daily highs and lows will occur. How many hours per day do you usually spend to trade using this method? {quote} Thank you for this Sir MG.
Actually, you may be surprised. The best times to trade HOLO are actually less volatile periods. Now think about that for a while and you will see why...

Get it? What happens when we get news or at an open? Price moves - usually a reasonable distance. It will often then...breakout. What happens when we see a breakout? We go elsewhere till things calm down.

You could of course take it as a 1-2-3 but that's not what we're talking about here.

Ranging markets with a reasonable daily range are going to give you the most opportunities. You have a trigger line and then price moves up and down over that line, giving you entry after entry though the day.

If we do get a breakout and we are ignoring 1-2-3 trades for now, then of course we look for a HOLO opportunity once the next H1 candle forms and will often get one. Patience is all.

Some pairs are more prone to having what I call top-and-tail days, where you will get a new low and a new high pretty much at the open and then at the close, UC can be good for this - and this kind of behaviour will become more and more apparent to you as you gain more experience and get to know which pairs you like to trade. Some will suit you, some will not. That's what the challenge period is so good for, as well as paying attention to the posted trades that appear here. Soak it all up - knowledge is power.

How many hours do I trade HOLO? It varies. Some days I trade it all day, some days not at all. I run multiple methods through the day and HOLO is only one of those. I would say that I tend to look at HOLO most in the periods just after the UK Open till an hour or so before the US kicks in. Then if again, it will be in the slacker period a couple of hours after the US Open and before UK Close. Once the UK session is done, if I get on again, it will be in the period around the ending of the US session and into the Asian Open.

However, one of my other methods can flag up potential HOLO set-ups coming and if I see one of these, then I will simply go have a look see how it is setting up, no matter what time it is. That's the beauty of trading a basket of methods. However, I am not suggesting that you need multiple methods to make your day work - for a few months when I was getting into the groove with HOLO, I traded pretty much nothing else and it worked like a dream, you can easily run HOLO alone and come up smiling every day.
  • #10,630
  • Mar 7, 2017 9:10pm Mar 7, 2017 9:10pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Actually, you may be surprised. The best times to trade HOLO are actually less volatile periods. Now think about that for a while and you will see why... Get it? What happens when we get news or at an open? Price moves - usually a reasonable distance. It will often then...breakout. What happens when we see a breakout? We go elsewhere till things calm down. You could of course take it as a 1-2-3 but that's not what we're talking about here. Ranging markets with a reasonable daily range are going to give you the most opportunities. You have...
Thank you good sir. That's perfect since I live in Asia - I can check the charts and leave pending buy/sell orders before going to work. I think if I leave orders I should put a 1-hour expiry to it -- I check the charts at 5:00 AM, price opens within area of interest, I leave pending orders based on indicator's high/low opens and daily high/low, and put a 1-hour expiry since the new H1 bar at 6:00 AM might print a new higher/lower open which invalidates the pending order.

Also, if you trade just after US close and Asian open, brokers usually print a new day. Am I right to assume that you will be basing your highs/lows on the previous day? Then the day before previous day is your basis for a breakout?

By the way, with regard to trading various currency pairs, I thought that we will need to trade all 27 (or is it 28?) major pairs for this method? Trading a lot of pairs validates the method's profitability. Example is if we focus only on trading USDCAD, and we incur multiple losses, the method might seem not that effective at all. On the other hand, if we simultaneously trade USDCAD and USDJPY, EURCAD, etc. the profit from trading other pairs might offset the losses incurred from trading USDCAD. Hence, trading multiple pairs truly shows the method's performance. Then again, some pairs like GBPNZD usually has a high spread. Maybe my thought process is wrong lol. Any feedback will be appreciated.
  • #10,631
  • Mar 7, 2017 10:06pm Mar 7, 2017 10:06pm
Quoting DavidApol
{quote} Thank you good sir. That's perfect since I live in Asia - I can check the charts and leave pending buy/sell orders before going to work. I think if I leave orders I should put a 1-hour expiry to it -- I check the charts at 5:00 AM, price opens within area of interest, I leave pending orders based on indicator's high/low opens and daily high/low, and put a 1-hour expiry since the new H1 bar at 6:00 AM might print a new higher/lower open which invalidates the pending order. Also, if you trade just after US close and Asian open, brokers usually...
Hi David,
as usual, you can rely on Lem for excellent answers.

But before getting too excited about trying to trade 27/28 pairs with HoLo, you will do better by taking the 10 trade challenge that TooSlow suggests(strongly) that all new traders of HoLo take.

If you (or anyone else) IS new to HoLo, then you would be well advised to pick ONE ONLY pair to trade with. 'PLEASE do not try and trade this method with more than ONE pair UNTIL/UNLESS you have completed the 10 trade challenge. AND if you don't feel you have it all together after 10 trades, then keep going on ONE pair UNTIL you do feel comfortable to trade a second or third pair.

There is NO use in trying to trade multiple pairs in the beginning. You will not have the prowess(?) to do so, without making a mess of the whole thing.

It's not a race !!

Also, you mentioned you live in Asia. So you might want to look at trading currencies that are possibly more active during the Asian session (AUD,JPY,NZD).

But what scares me, is that you also mentioned placing trades before you go to work. I would suggest to you STRONLGY that HoLo is not something that can be traded like that.

Example....You check the charts at 5am. Your TRIGGER time frame is the M15 time frame. You see the 5:15am candle open in the area of interest.
You would have to place a SELL STOP order at the Highest H1 Open price so you can go off to work.
What happens if the 5:45am M15 candle makes a new Daily High..........therefore, your Sell Stop order becomes invalid.....but it's still pending.....

I do understand that you would put a time limit on the pending trade, but how do you manage the trade if it does trigger while you are at work? Do you have an EA trade manager? You would need something like that, otherwise by the time you get home from work, you trade may have been in profit for some time.....but has since been stopped out.

I obviously do not know what your circumstances are, but if at all possible, it would be a better option to wait until you get home from work before looking for a trade. Obviously you may not be able to do that easily (Wife, Kids, Drinking problem )
But as mentioned, HoLo is best traded (in my opinion) when you are looking at the charts.

One other thing on trading 27/28 pairs. As you mentioned, there will be a large number of pairs with large spreads. Now I don't know how good YOUR brokers spreads are, but I know that I am never looking for a HoLo on an Exotic pair......and certainly only a few of the Minors, simply because 'my broker (Axitrader) doesn't offer (Me) good spreads on those ugly pairs.

So just another reason to REDUCE the number of pairs you are looking at, certainly while trading HoLo. Who need all that added stress anyway??

Enough from me.
Hope that helps.
Cheers
Michael
(P.S. If you need a free trade manager that's simple to use, let me know and I will point you in the right direction.)
  • #10,632
  • Mar 8, 2017 1:20am Mar 8, 2017 1:20am
Quoting DavidApol
{quote} Thank you good sir. That's perfect since I live in Asia - I can check the charts and leave pending buy/sell orders before going to work. I think if I leave orders I should put a 1-hour expiry to it -- I check the charts at 5:00 AM, price opens within area of interest, I leave pending orders based on indicator's high/low opens and daily high/low, and put a 1-hour expiry since the new H1 bar at 6:00 AM might print a new higher/lower open which invalidates the pending order. Also, if you trade just after US close and Asian open, brokers usually...
I would agree with MichaelG on the trading away from the screens issue. I wouldn't be doing that. I feel that you would be able to find enough opportunities to run HOLO once you are home - though as Michael says, we don't know your circumstances, so maybe you really can't. If you are looking to do this and have no other option, I would perhaps suggest that 1-2-3 on the H4 tf may offer you a better option than HOLO.

As for the point ''Also, if you trade just after US close and Asian open, brokers usually print a new day. Am I right to assume that you will be basing your highs/lows on the previous day?'' as I am in the UK, I will have enough time to give me opportunities before the new day kicks in. I trade what I see in front of me and that comes from the present day only.

I would look at the pairs that TS trades almost exclusively, as they will suit you trading Asian session best I feel. There is a post a month or so back (max) that had a very interesting and valuable breakdown of how (if I remember correctly) 90% of the profit on HOLO comes from three pairs that TS trades.
  • #10,633
  • Mar 8, 2017 2:02am Mar 8, 2017 2:02am
One for the Watch-List for those with a taste for the unusual...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US500H1asHOLOpostforthoseunusualones8hMarch17.png Size: 30 KB
  • #10,634
  • Mar 8, 2017 2:17am Mar 8, 2017 2:17am
Quoting DavidApol
{quote} Thank you good sir. That's perfect since I live in Asia - I can check the charts and leave pending buy/sell orders before going to work. I think if I leave orders I should put a 1-hour expiry to it -- I check the charts at 5:00 AM, price opens within area of interest, I leave pending orders based on indicator's high/low opens and daily high/low, and put a 1-hour expiry since the new H1 bar at 6:00 AM might print a new higher/lower open which invalidates the pending order. Also, if you trade just after US close and Asian open, brokers usually...
select one pair as dancing partner. follow her lead. you might understand her movement pretty well. im in gmt +8
  • #10,635
  • Mar 8, 2017 2:27am Mar 8, 2017 2:27am
Quoting lemercenaire
One for the Watch-List for those with a taste for the unusual... {image}
Gone into breakout mode - wait...
  • #10,636
  • Edited 4:22am Mar 8, 2017 3:14am | Edited 4:22am
Thank you MichaelG and lemercenaire. It very much clears things up!

Edit: Mike G, I said leaving orders since I can use a Move to BE indicator but yeah I get your point. Thanks for the comprehensive post.

Edit #2: After thinking about it, the best time for me to trade is 1-2 hours after US open. First it is well within my time zone (an hour or two before going to bed) and I added 1-2 hours to avoid trading within the usual time period for news announcements.

Edit #3: After a breakout candle to the upside occurs on the H1, and a new H1 candle is printed, can we now place a sell order once price opens in our new area of interest?

Edit #4: NZDUSD setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDM15.png Size: 46 KB
  • #10,637
  • Mar 8, 2017 5:50am Mar 8, 2017 5:50am
Quoting DavidApol
Thank you MichaelG and lemercenaire. It very much clears things up! Edit: Mike G, I said leaving orders since I can use a Move to BE indicator but yeah I get your point. Thanks for the comprehensive post. Edit #2: After thinking about it, the best time for me to trade is 1-2 hours after US open. First it is well within my time zone (an hour or two before going to bed) and I added 1-2 hours to avoid trading within the usual time period for news announcements. Edit #3: After a breakout candle to the upside occurs[/highlight]...
Edit #3: After a breakout candle to the upside occurs on the H1, and a new H1 candle is printed, can we now place a sell order once price opens in our new area of interest?

Yes, that exact thing has just happened on that US500 set up.
  • #10,638
  • Mar 8, 2017 6:06am Mar 8, 2017 6:06am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Gone into breakout mode - wait...
I ended up taking these as two 1-2-3 trades but in between those, the HOLO opportunities were there.

Trade #1 showed up here. The intersection of the dotted lines is the New Higher Open...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Inked.US500CashM15asHOLOentryegmarked8thMarch17_LItrade1.jpg Size: 316 KB


There was a point where it looked good for a second entry but that H1 bar went on to BreakOut mode before any entry would have been possible, so no trade. Ignore the indicator's new info on the right hand side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Inked.US500CashM15asHOLO2ndentryNAasBO8thMarch17_LIno2ndentry.jpg Size: 320 KB


Then, as mentioned by DavidApol above, a new H1 candle is born post BreakOut candle and we have our legit second entry opportunity...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Inked.US500CashM15asHOLOtrue2ndentryafterBOpassed8thMarch17_LIlegittrade2.jpg Size: 315 KB


Here is the overview of it all on H1 chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .US500CashH1asHOLO8thMarch17overview.png Size: 31 KB


(It's now gone into a new BreakOut candle, so off we go again, lol...)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .US500CashH1nowgoneinto2ndBO8thmarch17.png Size: 32 KB
  • #10,639
  • Mar 8, 2017 6:08am Mar 8, 2017 6:08am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW1.png Size: 52 KB
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,640
  • Mar 8, 2017 6:54am Mar 8, 2017 6:54am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Edit #3: After a breakout candle to the upside occurs on the H1, and a new H1 candle is printed, can we now place a sell order once price opens in our new area of interest? Yes, that exact thing has just happened on that US500 set up.
Thank you Lem! And thanks for the charts and its corresponding explanations.
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