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There is no such thing as technical analysis

  • #21
  • Mar 7, 2017 7:02am Mar 7, 2017 7:02am
Sorry to hear that. I have to say that there is no such a type of analysis could be right for anyone or predict the future perfectly. Analysis can only show that what may happen has a high possibility. Technical analysis works for me better than fundamental analysis.
  • #22
  • Mar 7, 2017 7:19am Mar 7, 2017 7:19am
[quote=dkrock;9635679]{quote} LOL. That is one of the most erroneous comments I have read in FF.

I pissed my pants at that one too
  • #23
  • Mar 7, 2017 7:22am Mar 7, 2017 7:22am
[quote=cat;9635737]
Quoting dkrock
{quote} LOL. That is one of the most erroneous comments I have read in FF. I pissed my pants at that one too
I pulled it.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #24
  • Mar 7, 2017 7:22am Mar 7, 2017 7:22am
This guy is a fool!

Just do time of day trading... on technical levels...

Don't enter right before market opens or in front of major news.

Don't expect USA to continue a london move..
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #25
  • Mar 7, 2017 7:24am Mar 7, 2017 7:24am
Quoting kingliuyc
Sorry to hear that. I have to say that there is no such a type of analysis could be right for anyone or predict the future perfectly. Analysis can only show that what may happen has a high possibility. Technical analysis works for me better than fundamental analysis.
i have abandoned fundamental analysis maaaany years ago, don't care a bit about news, inflation, situation, interest rates, nfp, this, that.

everything you need is in the charts.

now some other people (like in this thread), say the opposite, they say that chart is fake and fundamental trading is the only way to go.

my thinking is that if we can combine a successful fundamental trader and a successful technical trader, we could have a super successful trading team!
  • #26
  • Mar 7, 2017 7:57am Mar 7, 2017 7:57am
Quoting cat
{quote} As the chart below shows, which is Friday's Dax, you can see clearly that the support was pivot level support 2, and the resistance for the day was the 30 minute 100sma, which wasn't something that had " been and gone ", it was clearly there, and combined with the central pivot, gave a very precise and accurate resistance level which other traders reacted to to take the price down again. That my friend, is technical analysis, whichever way you look at it, and it is the extent to which a trader is able to employ it that determines whether...
Actually pivot points are nothing more than a wrapper for the average daily range with some additional levels that are effectively accounting for normal and extended days. Extended days are when price moves more than it does on standard days but is statistically smaller in quantity than standard days. So for example over the last 19 trading days (excluding today) here is the spread of the daily range (numbers at bottom). 8 of the 19 are extended days and the remaining 11 have a majority and are effectively the normal days. The average range of a normal day is 64 points and the average range of an extended day is 144 points. Since your example spans a normal day the low and high account for 62 points on the day which is basically bang on the average range for a normal day.

I should also point out the 100 sma resistance isn't the reason price turned. The real reason is the turning point was the 1200 handle and the previous days level where price was finding support. Large handles always have this behaviour so i am afraid your assumption that sma served this cause is incorrect. Moving averages have no significance on future price behaviour and is really just the sum of a given period (open, high, low, or close) divided by the number of periods. if price accelerates then obviously it will draw it closer or further (depending on location) in relation to the moving average. in this case price happened to accelerate and turn coincidentally at a level of significance.

So to summarise all the technical analysis you have put forth as relevant can be reduced to 2 things that you don't need any charts to derive [average daily range and significant levels]. Of course these alone do not offer any edge but rather form part of a process of analysis that includes sentiment, correlation, and drivers. Why don't you offer a series of 5 consecutive days of examples in which i bet there will be examples of price not behaving in accordance to technical analysis - this is the fly trap that catches so many traders and gives fuel to those that highly advocate TA as an art. I am not saying TA doesn't work, it does but it doesn't for 90+% of people.

Sorry to pick you out like this and don't mean any harm - hopefully this can be a mature debate and we can avoid stone throwing.



high-low for past 19 trading days (excl today)

62.81
40.69
160.18
72.67
68.31
212.29
90.10
65.09
189.10
36.34
81.70
86.32
122.66
35.14
127.78
66.42
109.06
111.48
122.43
  • #27
  • Mar 7, 2017 8:20am Mar 7, 2017 8:20am
[quote=EcoTrader;9635953]{quote} Actually pivot points are nothing more than a wrapper for the average daily range with some additional levels that are effectively accounting for normal and extended days. I should also point out the 100 sma resistance isn't the reason price turned. The real reason is the turning point was the 1200 handle and the previous days level ........where price was finding support. Large handles always have this behaviour so i am afraid your assumption that sma served this cause is incorrect. Moving averages have no significance on future price behaviour and is really just the sum of a given period (open, high, low, or close) divided by the number of periods.......;. if price accelerates then obviously it will draw it closer or further (depending on location) in relation to the moving average........ in this case price happened to accelerate ..........and turn coincidentally at a level of significance. So to summarise.......

What a load of nosensicle, theoretical codswallop!!

You don't have to lecture me about what I saw and what I reacted to on my charts. The sma resistance was a level I anticipated, it was there, and as has happened thousands of times in the past on this sort of technical set up, the price was drawn to it. the pivot level was close enough to what was also a major support level on the downside, for it have become a major support level on its own. Now you may well have had your own version of what constituted S&R which worked for you, and I would not have disputed it, yet you have the temerity to tell me in all your wisdom that although I traded very profitably off of the 100sma all day, I am in fact wrong with my analysis, and that I should be looking at the 1200 handle from the previous day, whatever the fuck that is.

You want a mature debate? Then quit telling other traders that they are wrong and you are right. Unfuckingbelievable!!
  • #28
  • Mar 7, 2017 8:26am Mar 7, 2017 8:26am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote}ra122.43
How long have you been trading for ecotrader if you don't mind me asking, because you seem to be very wrapped up in theory, technical detail and previous days price levels for someone who has been trading for a long time?
  • #29
  • Mar 7, 2017 8:41am Mar 7, 2017 8:41am
Inserted Video
  • #30
  • Mar 7, 2017 8:46am Mar 7, 2017 8:46am
Quoting cat
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Actually pivot points are nothing more than a wrapper for the average daily range with some additional levels that are effectively accounting for normal and extended days. I should also point out the 100 sma resistance isn't the reason price turned. The real reason is the turning point was the 1200 handle and the previous days level ........where price was finding support. Large handles always have this behaviour so i am afraid your assumption that sma served this cause is incorrect. Moving averages have no significance
...

just when i thought we could have a mature conversation there you go throwing your toys out the cot and can't help yourself in throwing foul language around. Speaks volumes doesn't it! i am not even going to bother trying to explain as you are so defensive and incapable of dialect that i would be wasting my time.
  • #31
  • Mar 7, 2017 8:55am Mar 7, 2017 8:55am
Quoting tunera
{quote} i have abandoned fundamental analysis maaaany years ago, don't care a bit about news, inflation, situation, interest rates, nfp, this, that. everything you need is in the charts. now some other people (like in this thread), say the opposite, they say that chart is fake and fundamental trading is the only way to go. my thinking is that if we can combine a successful fundamental trader and a successful technical trader, we could have a super successful trading team!
Tunera,

Could you please tell me what were the reasons/experiences that lead to abandoning Fundamental Analysis.
And how has been your Trading Success after keeping the FA aside (It is clear as Day Light that you are a successful trader but I am curious between before and after FA within your existing success).

Do you still take trades irrespective whether news events, major speeches are lined up?

Thanks
  • #32
  • Mar 7, 2017 8:56am Mar 7, 2017 8:56am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote}{quote} just when i thought we could have a mature conversation there you go throwing your toys out the cot and can't help yourself in throwing foul language around. Speaks volumes doesn't it! i am not even going to bother trying to explain as you are so defensive and incapable of dialect that i would be wasting my time.
That's the sort of lame reply I anticipated, and there's nothing foul about the word fuck, it's used everywhere nowadays. If I had insulted you with directly, the moderators would have already banned my post. Your post was full of nonsense I doubt one single person here would have had the patience to read, with a list of numbers a mile long...totally irrelevant to a day trader.
  • #33
  • Mar 7, 2017 9:04am Mar 7, 2017 9:04am
Quoting cat
{quote} That's the sort of lame reply I anticipated, and there's nothing foul about the word fuck, it's used everywhere nowadays. If I had insulted you with directly, the moderators would have already banned my post. Your post was full of nonsense I doubt one single person here would have had the patience to read, with a list of numbers a mile long...totally irrelevant to a day trader.
Prove me wrong and take up a challenge. For the next 5 trading days post analysis on the start of the trading session with this elusive map you so eagerly pointed out in your post with the chart. I suspect you wont for the usual reasons. Whats the saying again "full of hot air" - happy to be proven wrong and be humbled.
  • #34
  • Mar 7, 2017 9:06am Mar 7, 2017 9:06am
alternatively throw a demo account up for a week and add it to trade explorer.
  • #35
  • Mar 7, 2017 9:12am Mar 7, 2017 9:12am
Quoting EcoTrader
alternatively throw a demo account up for a week and add it to trade explorer.
As you're both in the UK, it might also be possible to settle this with a good old honest fist fight, no?
  • #36
  • Mar 7, 2017 9:12am Mar 7, 2017 9:12am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Prove me wrong and take up a challenge. For the next 5 trading days post analysis on the start of the trading session with this elusive map you so eagerly pointed out in your post with the chart. I suspect you wont for the usual reasons. Whats the saying again "full of hot air" - happy to be proven wrong and be humbled.
Just why exactly would I feel the need to do that? To prove myself to you? I have been a regular contributor to this forum for seven years, and those who know me also know the value of my posts and analysis. I do not want to humble you, win your respect. prove you wrong, or anything of the kind, because quite frankly, I do not care. What I do care about is people coming on here throwing assertions about as if they hold the holy grail to trading and everyone else is wrong.

That is my response to your feeble challenge. Had I set you the same challenge, it would undoubtedly go down as my saddest day in ff posting history.
  • #37
  • Mar 7, 2017 9:14am Mar 7, 2017 9:14am
Quoting medici
{quote} As you're both in the UK, it might also be possible to settle this with a good old honest fist fight, no?
See post :
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...33#post9636233
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #38
  • Mar 7, 2017 9:27am Mar 7, 2017 9:27am
Quoting EcoTrader
alternatively throw a demo account up for a week and add it to trade explorer.
Majority of so called TA gurus on FF don't have a trade explorer and those that do make a mistake of creating one disappear with a blown account.
  • #39
  • Mar 7, 2017 9:35am Mar 7, 2017 9:35am
Quoting EcoTrader
alternatively throw a demo account up for a week and add it to trade explorer.
But again, why would I want to do that? If there are those who doubt my credentials as a trader, and I'm sure there are, then that is purely their business, not mine. I only ever post on this forum when I feel I have something worthwhile or important to say. Other traders then if they see it, take it on board, or they dismiss it. In short, I have never attempted to prove anything, because in my world, those who seek to impress others are almost always the least secure among us. To bow to your wishes and start logging my trades, just to satisfy you, would for me be a sign of weakness, not strength. From my own observations over the years here on ff, those who throw out challenges to other traders, are the ones with the least experience. You have been a member for no longer than one month, and yet you are throwing out childish challenges! Pretty sad actually.

I also use prorealtime, which is not accepted on trade explorer, not that that is the reason.
  • #40
  • Mar 7, 2017 9:37am Mar 7, 2017 9:37am
Quoting cat
{quote} Just why exactly would I feel the need to do that? To prove myself to you? I have been a regular contributor to this forum for seven years, and those who know me also know the value of my posts and analysis. I do not want to humble you, win your respect. prove you wrong, or anything of the kind, because quite frankly, I do not care. What I do care about is people coming on here throwing assertions about as if they hold the holy grail to trading and everyone else is wrong. That is my response to your feeble challenge. Had I set you the same...
Right so you have moved from claiming "i am right and everyone is wrong" to claiming to have the holy grail! Can i suggest you go back and read again because i have made no such claims - your words fella, not mine. You say you have been a contributor to this forum for seven years, what exactly are you contributing here then? you posted a chart, i contributed my thoughts followed by a barrage of absolute rubbish and defence as though i stabbed you in the heart. Maybe i missed something here, this is a forum where dialogue is exchanged, this thread is about TA and its legitimacy, all i am asking is for someone to show me something that isn't cherry picked hindsight. Perhaps you should reevaluate your membership here as from what i have seen on this thread and others, you don't seem to be contributing much outside of attacks and defence. People who claim they have nothing to hide generally do in my experience.
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