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There is no such thing as technical analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 25, 2017 6:23am Mar 6, 2017 1:54pm | Edited Oct 25, 2017 6:23am
JK
  • #2
  • Mar 6, 2017 2:31pm Mar 6, 2017 2:31pm
I agree Nabz

here is what i said on my latest thread earlier today -

Quote
So basically real time (and all computer based) charts are a very recent phenomenon in terms of widespread availability to and use by people.

Also there is not a lot of evidence that chart based trading consistently profitably enough is realistically attainable for many people.

And judging by some of the garbage that gets posted online as sorry excuses for chart based trading strategies that work consistently well enough (not!), maybe charts are no more than a fancy looking graphical representation of what has already happened (its too late now!), with little predictive power, and mainly a waste of space.

But computer based charts are useful to post cherry picked screenshots on forums to show what you would/could/should have done if actually operating your refined super trading system, and not just posting screenshots of it....
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...04#post9632004

TA works great with hindsight, so people can post cherry picking screenshots of what they would/should/could have done after the event, but before the outcome was known they did not have a clue and were most likely filled with fear.

Whether a chart contains indicators like RSI or moving averages, or is just "blank" with bars or candlesticks - but maybe bars and candlesticks are just indicators of past events with no firm consistent indication of what will happen next.
  • #3
  • Edited 2:55pm Mar 6, 2017 2:38pm | Edited 2:55pm
I have to disagree with you. Technical analysis works perfectly with my strategies. Technical analysis gives me an edge and puts the probabilities of a winning trade in my favour. No system is 100% perfect, that is why you have to use risk management/money management/position sizing to protect your capital if the probabilities of a trade go against your position. : )

P.S. In my analysis I use advanced pattern recognition and market structure.
Don't wait for the wind, take to the oars.
  • #4
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:19pm Mar 6, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting Nabz
I was a firm believer in technical analysis (TA), and based my trades solely on it. But slowly, I've come to see the light that there isn't any such thing. First time I doubted technical analytics was when I saw a video where a guy was doing technical analysis on a picture of mountains. Yup, he was drawing support, resistance and trend lines on mountains. So, today I was looking at a chart and thought why not draw the lines and see if it connects. Its just a chart of daily watch time in minutes for my Youtube videos. There are no sellers, no buyers,...
I just read a few of your posts from last October and November. Honestly, you are (among) the last trader who should offer an opinion on technical analysis, or any other aspect of trading. From your posts, I saw absolutely no evidence that you properly use, or even know any of the basics, of technical analysis. You can count yourself in the company of many failed, fake traders who, after suffering losses and becoming frustrated, have decided to thrash out at life and blame technical analysis for your failure, rather than just admit that you don't get it and have failed. And now, all the other failed traders will jump in here and echo your thoughts, because if you guys can't do it or don't get it, it's all crap. And don't forget, the markets are random and impossible to predict, and your broker screwed you, and the big banks are out to hunt your stops. You didn't fail, it was everyone and everything else that did it to you.
  • #5
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:44pm Mar 6, 2017 3:44pm
Quoting Nabz
I was a firm believer in technical analysis (TA), and based my trades solely on it. But slowly, I've come to see the light that there isn't any such thing. First time I doubted technical analytics was when I saw a video where a guy was doing technical analysis on a picture of mountains. Yup, he was drawing support, resistance and trend lines on mountains. So, today I was looking at a chart and thought why not draw the lines and see if it connects. Its just a chart of daily watch time in minutes for my Youtube videos. There are no sellers, no buyers,...

Wow, that's why one should learn something fundamentally instead of shallow learning. First of all, you can measure any trend by trend lines whether they are market charts or any other data like your daily watch chart. I bet you don't even know why you draw the lines and what you measure.


Before you deny everything, please just answer these questions. Why do you draw trend lines and what do you measure by doing that? Or in other words, what do they tell you? What's the correct way of drawing trend lines? What kinds of trend lines do we have and what do they tell you each?


If you could answer above questions correctly you wouldn't say that everything is BS in TA.

  • #6
  • Edited 4:07pm Mar 6, 2017 3:47pm | Edited 4:07pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I just read a few of your posts from last October and November. Honestly, you are (among) the last trader who should offer an opinion on technical analysis, or any other aspect of trading. From your posts, I saw absolutely no evidence that you properly use, or even know any of the basics, of technical analysis. You can count yourself in the company of many failed, fake traders who, after suffering losses and becoming frustrated, have decided to thrash out at life and blame technical analysis for your failure, rather than just admit that...
I said none of those things, I've had very good experience with almost all the brokers I traded with. Never complained about stop hunts, because they don't exist. So, stop making things up.

I am just showing you the fallacy of technical analysis. Its all in your mind, its an illusion. I am not blaming anyone, because I haven't failed. I'm a very profitable fundamental investor.

Making a living out of trading based on technical analysis is a pipedream. I know this is a very unpopular opinion as it plays with hopes of people.
  • #7
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:52pm Mar 6, 2017 3:52pm
Quoting Nabz
I was a firm believer in technical analysis (TA), and based my trades solely on it. But slowly, I've come to see the light that there isn't any such thing. First time I doubted technical analytics was when I saw a video where a guy was doing technical analysis on a picture of mountains. Yup, he was drawing support, resistance and trend lines on mountains. So, today I was looking at a chart and thought why not draw the lines and see if it connects. Its just a chart of daily watch time in minutes for my Youtube videos. There are no sellers, no buyers,...
Or we can say that technical analysis can be applied to every chart, from markets to YouTube viewers, to fundamental data, to weather charts, etc.

Everything that can be charted, can be technically analyzed.

Isn't this a wonderful thing?
  • #8
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:54pm Mar 6, 2017 3:54pm
It works for some people and doesn't for others. I gave it a year of my full focus and came to the conclusion that's its nothing more than a random series of coincidences. You can translate all sorts of data like the OP pointed out into charts and visually there is overlapping similarities. To trade random coincidences you can apply strict money management but only a small percentage of people can do it (hence the failure rate). The other issue affecting TA is the market moves through cycles and exogenous factors change sentiment. This is where systems can begin to fail.

All of you that don't feel like TA is working for you and you have spent a year or more trying, there is another way to trade that will give you a more effective and stable way to profit through all cycles and conditions. It's called fundamental analysis and you will need to work harder than you do with TA but you won't regret it.

I have traded almost a year now without TA and things have never been better.
  • #9
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:59pm Mar 6, 2017 3:59pm
Quoting Nabz
{quote} So, technical analysis millionaires crawl out of their holes. I said none of those things, I've had very good experience with almost all the brokers I traded with. Never complained about stop hunts, because they don't exist. So, stop making things up. I am just showing you the fallacy of technical analysis. Its all in your mind, its an illusion. I am not blaming anyone, because I haven't failed. I'm a very profitable fundamental investor. Making a living out of trading based on technical analysis is a pipedream. I know this is a very unpopular...
You're right, you said nothing about brokers, randomness, etc. But, in time that is where the thread will go. As for TA, you're an idiot to make the assertion you've made about it. And as for my trading, you can find much about what I do by viewing my journal here on FF. Best wishes to you for continued success as an investor, but you better skip trading. Your posts since Oct indicate trading is not for you.
  • #10
  • Mar 6, 2017 4:00pm Mar 6, 2017 4:00pm
The title of this thread suggests to me that you don't understand how to use technical analysis... at least properly. It is one half science, the other half art.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #11
  • Mar 6, 2017 4:45pm Mar 6, 2017 4:45pm
You are a "very profitable fundamental investor", but can't figure out how to measure market behavior? That's funny. Well, good luck to you.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #12
  • Mar 6, 2017 5:43pm Mar 6, 2017 5:43pm
Well i was told there is no such thing as Santa Clause but i still get presents every year
  • #13
  • Mar 6, 2017 5:46pm Mar 6, 2017 5:46pm
I think your conclusion is off. Technical analysis might not work for you, but there are tons of traders out there who solely rely on technical analysis and are profitable, just like there are profitable traders who rely solely on fundamental analysis. It's a matter of finding the method that makes complete sense to you as an individual.
  • #14
  • Mar 6, 2017 6:01pm Mar 6, 2017 6:01pm
It will take most traders years upon years to discover that absolutely nothing placed on a trading chart will have any significance whatsoever on a moving price.
It is the biggest fallacy ever perpetrated on the investing public.
  • #15
  • Mar 6, 2017 11:40pm Mar 6, 2017 11:40pm
The importance of technical analysis lays in the fact that it the study of mass investor psychology. It is good way of predicting the market trend but it is just one tool and not the only form of analysis for the traders. Technical analysis also plays a role as an alternate solution to trader’s bad habit of relying on the gut feeling. A trader can look into technical analysis before placing the trade based on his emotional feeling which is one major cause of losing money in forex. So for many traders technical analysis can be a big thing.
  • #16
  • Mar 7, 2017 3:42am Mar 7, 2017 3:42am
Ofcourse there is!

Works for me:

Attached Image
Please add more indicators, I still see the real price! Thanks!
  • #17
  • Edited 4:29am Mar 7, 2017 4:05am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting Nabz
I was a firm believer in technical analysis (TA), and based my trades solely on it. But slowly, I've come to see the light that there isn't any such thing. First time I doubted technical analytics was when I saw a video where a guy........... You will see what you want to see. {image}
You just hung yourself with your very first sentence.

If, you were a firm believer in technical analysis, then you would have been profiting from using it. If you were not, then how could you ever have been a firm believer in it?

If, you had been successful ( as you must have been to be a firm believer in it ) then how and why would you suddenly come to see the light and claim that there wasn't any such thing?

We must therefore conclude that you were never successful using technical analysis, because one does not generally " see the light " in something they are already using successfully, only when one has been doing something wrong.

Your claim therefore is one large contradiction, and I would say that you are either lying and in doing so attempting to mislead readers of your thread, or you are rather confused. Why would anyone take your advice when clearly your opinion arises from failure rather than success.

Yet another thread by someone seeking justification for their own failure. There must be at least one new one every single day. This thread therefore should not be titled ' There is no such thing as technical analysis ', but ' I am totally shit at using TA, and can anyone out there help me ?'
  • #18
  • Mar 7, 2017 4:12am Mar 7, 2017 4:12am
In my opinion, any chart based trading strategy using conventional chart indicators like -
bollinger bands, MA's, RSI, stochastics etc,
which covers the vast majority of trading strategies that people share on forums, is GARBAGE! as they just randomly show what has been and gone.

And even blank candlesticks charts (which are way better than indicator filled charts) are a mere graphical representation of what has already happened, with no guarantees as to what may happen next.
  • #19
  • Mar 7, 2017 4:46am Mar 7, 2017 4:46am
Quoting Nebula
In my opinion, any chart based trading strategy using conventional chart indicators like - bollinger bands, MA's, RSI, stochastics etc, which covers the vast majority of trading strategies that people share on forums, is GARBAGE! as they just randomly show what has been and gone. And even blank candlesticks charts (which are way better than indicator filled charts) are a mere graphical representation of what has already happened, with no guarantees as to what may happen next.
At least you have the good sense to say ' in my opinion '. However, to claim that the vast majority are garbage is only partially right, in that they are garbage in the wrong hands. To say that indicators such as MAs " just randomly show what has been and gone " only demonstrates that you haven't got the foggiest idea how to use them. As the chart below shows, which is Friday's Dax, you can see clearly that the support was pivot level support 2, and the resistance for the day was the 30 minute 100sma, which wasn't something that had " been and gone ", it was clearly there, and combined with the central pivot, gave a very precise and accurate resistance level which other traders reacted to to take the price down again.

That my friend, is technical analysis, whichever way you look at it, and it is the extent to which a trader is able to employ it that determines whether they think it is useful or not.
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  • #20
  • Mar 7, 2017 5:02am Mar 7, 2017 5:02am
Quoting Nabz
I was a firm believer in technical analysis (TA), and based my trades solely on it. But slowly, I've come to see the light that there isn't any such thing. First time I doubted technical analytics was when I saw a video where a guy was doing technical analysis on a picture of mountains. Yup, he was drawing support, resistance and trend lines on mountains. So, today I was looking at a chart and thought why not draw the lines and see if it connects. Its just a chart of daily watch time in minutes for my Youtube videos. There are no sellers, no buyers,...
You are right. If TA doesn't work for you then find something else that does. If trading is not for you, find something that is. Do what is right for you.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
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