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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,041
  • Mar 2, 2017 9:40am Mar 2, 2017 9:40am
Quoting inuit
Hi Ray! i never saw that large trader here, i wonder if those stats can be manipulated some how? anyway must have diamond balls to play that size 10pip swing makes or takes 30 000$
Hi hi friend,

No idea, but I feel that is unlikely. I saw one account upward of $20mio USD live at another site before. So.. they do come out of the shadows lol.

I reckon this person queen was out fighting, trade was gone when I checked about 12 hours earlier. There is another position almost 90 lot now. I think these guys might be caught out by market and trying to do a very strong rescue. I don't recall these biggies last week. Sometimes I look around brokers and these online trade explorers for "open interest" of pairs.
Very interesting to watch these some days, you will never know what you will find. hehe.
PS. long EurUsd is negative swaps.. at moment its -5.7 so, it is about -500$ per roll over at the very least for that guy. and -$1710 for Mr 300 lot.

Definitely takes training to get the emotion out of these figures and take it as just numbers.

Regards
Ray
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,042
  • Mar 3, 2017 8:01am Mar 3, 2017 8:01am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hi Goldenfinger, your display picture reminds me of CaptainJack from the stevehopwood forex forum. Regarding your disscussion subject, it has been discussed at length in this forum. It has also been covered in the nick leeson's book - The Rouge Trader and the movie, the reminsence of stock operator has also discussed it at length. the form may be different, but the substance is same. For strategy to deal with the market, you should reference the 3 AOW lesson on thread. for further enlightenment, you should reference the AOW full text.

Hi jacque, yes the profile picture is same as my master Captain Jack, who have my highest regard, he is the first one to teach me observing pa, so I started out my forex journey there, ahh it has been some time as he is no longer active. You are a member too? There are many great traders there too.
  • #57,043
  • Mar 4, 2017 4:27am Mar 4, 2017 4:27am
Sad day. put down 2 dogs today because attack mom. Raised from puppy. Fought with me.

regards
  • #57,044
  • Edited 5:53am Mar 4, 2017 5:33am | Edited 5:53am
Quoting GoldenFinger
{quote} Hi jacque, yes the profile picture is same as my master Captain Jack, who have my highest regard, he is the first one to teach me observing pa, so I started out my forex journey there, ahh it has been some time as he is no longer active. You are a member too? There are many great traders there too.
yes, i joined that forum and participated in his thread when i first started out in search of a method to turn $1000 into a million in a few years time. he taught a method of pattern trading using 3 pushes and threw in a mix of having knowledge how market markers operated. as with all holy grail method, it was not clear how he used his method in relation to changing circumstances. he appears to be very brave, trading on extreme leverage and claiming to let his brokers takes him out. if you are given a hammer, all problems appears to be nail and eventually you hammer away your rice bowl with a big margin call.

then there seems to be relation between the broker i.e globalprime & his thread & the forum and also, commercial interest of developing an EA was thrown into the mix with early donors to the program claiming to make big bucks. tt's where i moved on. i found some other thread such as petercrown method, equity milipede. one way or another, i still didnt find their secrets on how to make a million from 1k.

the fact is that you can't unless you had a windfall. if you look at all other businesses out there, there is none that made a million from 1k starting capital overnight. as with all scams, forex scammers are a new breed, but the MO is the same. they prey on your ego and greed - there is an inner circle who keeps showing off their big money and you keep paying up to learn that secret method and lose money while living in fear that your family will find out.

here in this thread which has been running for 10 years, there is none of these stuff. mindset, capital, AOW are the basic components in all businesses. i ask that you read and understand the tools and philosophy presented. it will put you in good stead for all your endeavors.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #57,045
  • Mar 4, 2017 5:37am Mar 4, 2017 5:37am
Quoting fti
Sad day. put down 2 dogs today because attack mom. Raised from puppy. Fought with me. regards
they didn't know better, rip.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #57,046
  • Edited 8:15am Mar 4, 2017 7:34am | Edited 8:15am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} they didn't know better, rip.
this 2 was dominant dogs.
now poor mom's got many feeding scars, but she still insist do the feeding.
yes they not know better, attack the hands that feeds em.

mom says she's lucky, still have loyal dogs defended her.
Otherwise she couldn't escape. Mom's only slightly injured, they didn't dare bite too hard maybe.
In better state than my antie's guard dog. Nearly bite off her ear. 20 stiches.
Dogs that attack owners must be put down. lesson learned.
They only animals, no cow sense.
Anyway the dod that lead the attack was her favourite.
don't know what the jelousy.

regards
  • #57,047
  • Mar 4, 2017 8:52am Mar 4, 2017 8:52am
Quoting fti
Sad day. put down 2 dogs today because attack mom. Raised from puppy. Fought with me. regards
Hello Fti,

It is sad to read about, indeed. In my life - has only been with raising and being mutually friendly with German shepherds or labrador retrievers. The Germans might not fit for a hot climate. Regarding rottweillers, if you remember, I have recently posted my experience.

Even a man is not secured against getting mad once.

Take care and best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,048
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:27am Mar 4, 2017 11:27am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Fti, It is sad to read about, indeed. In my life - has only been with raising and being mutually friendly with German shepherds or labrador retrievers. The Germans might not fit for a hot climate. Regarding rottweillers, if you remember, I have recently posted my experience. Even a man is not secured against getting mad once. Take care and best regards, Exnav
yes noted and understood exnav.
much appreciate the view.

for me, at the momemt most important is safety for my aged mom.
i am looking into what may had caused aggitation or excitement for the pack.
mostly all is now very nervously calm. even the pack/s eyes seems remorseful for the loss of some members.


regards
  • #57,049
  • Edited 9:53am Mar 5, 2017 9:22am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Fti, It is sad to read about, indeed. In my life - has only been with raising and being mutually friendly with German shepherds or labrador retrievers. The Germans might not fit for a hot climate. Regarding rottweillers, if you remember, I have recently posted my experience. Even a man is not secured against getting mad once. Take care and best regards, Exnav
I still rumenising on the thought.
"Even a man is not secured against getting mad once."
so true.
There bad hair days,even for the strongest. The price to pay may be too high sometimes.
one bite and pays with their life.

Should i build fence,seperate the lions make the compound in the zoo i live in?
Mad man thinks build fence, surround the jail he will live in.
Crazy men, we just moves in. And savvy people collects the rent.
Is sad destroy own top dogs. but safety first necessary.
not for self, no need protect a lion from the lions but for those around.

Anywa y still looking for thoughts from the cosmos.
but i know i created the zoo. Watching for my karma thats searching for me.
it pains, these rascals loves me more than they love themselves.
enemies would be loving it.

regards
  • #57,050
  • Mar 5, 2017 10:35am Mar 5, 2017 10:35am
Is there any one who take Nial Fuller (learntotradethemarket) PA course. Let me know your experience.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #57,051
  • Mar 5, 2017 11:15am Mar 5, 2017 11:15am
Attached Image
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,052
  • Mar 5, 2017 1:43pm Mar 5, 2017 1:43pm
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  • #57,053
  • Mar 5, 2017 11:17pm Mar 5, 2017 11:17pm
hi fti,
i got some question, hope you can answer me.
in early post, you got mention the 3 kingdom.
so, when we trading, do we need to trade the 3 pair in the same time, or look for the opportunity in these 3 pair and trade them?
  • #57,054
  • Mar 6, 2017 5:55am Mar 6, 2017 5:55am
Quoting fti
Sad day. put down 2 dogs today because attack mom. Raised from puppy. Fought with me. regards
Hi my friend,

Sorry and sad to hear that.
While feeding, hmm .. sounds like the dog is resource guarding.
Is it a punctual wound or a skin wound?

In my experience, for code red dogs once "triggered" they will draw blood which will result in punctual wound. These are very very difficult cases to rehab but not impossible.
And if not code red, the negative habit might have been reinforce with reward unknowingly due to our rush of daily life and, maybe the lack of realisation. For example, with meal time, most tend to "get it over with" attitude and if that is done with a dog that is insecure with his food, it becomes a reinforce cycle, where he growls and snaps then he gets food. And that if he snaps at the hand, he gets the food quicker. Imagine this happens 3 times a day, for x period.. that negative behavior becomes his 'norm'.

For positive reinforcement school would do is stop activity when he growls and snaps, ie walk away. And keep repeating it until he not to snap and growl. I would start with changing meals to hand feeding method so that he can associate that hand = food. And growl/snap = no food. And lastly, re-introduce the bowl with hand filling it so that he associate "hand come = more food" and "hand no come = no food". Basically, it is associating reward with good behavior.
This will take quite alot of repetition and patience before it can be nurtured but once the association is done, it is rock solid.
Having a pack might be a challenge, but if you have a very good role model dog, he can help the clown learn much quicker as they will be "monkey see, monkey do".

Traditionally, a clicker is also use to mark his good behavior, but it can be a optional thing..

And, personally, I don't really like the cesar milan school of training dogs, because there is no way a person can over power a 200lbs rott. hence, I am a subscriber to the positive reinforcement way of training dogs. Having said that, he does have some points that is valuable.

googling yielded some result

https://positively.com/dog-behavior/...urce-guarding/
wow this site quite good http://yourdogsfriend.org/help/resou...ding-growling/

Regards
Ray
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,055
  • Mar 6, 2017 6:05am Mar 6, 2017 6:05am
Quoting warbee
hi fti, i got some question, hope you can answer me. in early post, you got mention the 3 kingdom. so, when we trading, do we need to trade the 3 pair in the same time, or look for the opportunity in these 3 pair and trade them?

Hi hi friend,

FTI may be tune upset at the moment, hence allow me to attempt my take for you.

This have been mentioned in the thread in the "200 pages" part, however, to answer your question, the 3 kingdom is in a way, how we look at things, how the usd is doing, how the euro and cable is doing, if usd strength is sighted, or if it is a mess. Is yen playing ball, or is yen causing a ruckus. Who is the boss of the 3 kingdom, or are they all fighting at the moment. 3 kingdom tells a alot and there is alot more she is telling in the fine details on the sides.
Therefore, in my opinion, your question is both the question and the answer, and it all depends on the current terrain and climate of price.

Hope that helps.

Regards
Ray
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,056
  • Mar 6, 2017 6:16am Mar 6, 2017 6:16am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi my friend, Sorry and sad to hear that. While feeding, hmm .. sounds like the dog is resource guarding. Is it a punctual wound or a skin wound? In my experience, for code red dogs once "triggered" they will draw blood which will result in punctual wound. These are very very difficult cases to rehab but not impossible. And if not code red, the negative habit might have been reinforce with reward unknowingly due to our rush of daily life and, maybe the lack of realisation. For example, with meal time, most tend to "get it over with" attitude...
Oh yea,
Before a dog attacks or bites, chances are his tail is somewhat straight, ears forward, eye fixated AND mouth close.
imo dogs rarely close their mouth. so i always become more cautious when they close theirs.
Sometimes, they will do a yawning and/or "licking" action and/or lift one paw up. He is either unsure about something or trying to calm himself down.

This site I found quite good
http://moderndogmagazine.com/article...y-language/415

calming signals
http://naturaldogguide.com/dog-train...lming-signals/
this site quite good and comprehensive

Regards
Ray


Ahh, this had been nice refresher, I miss dogs and cats.
by the way, we can do calming signals, and the dogs will reply too. yawn to the dog, and see if he yawns back. try it!

Cats.. on a different ball game. but they react to their own set of signals, very amusing stuff. ps. yawning works with cats too, i guess some body language intersects

Sigh, Im sorry. if I had shared these earlier, maybe they could be saved and your mum wouldnt have been bitten...
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,057
  • Mar 6, 2017 7:38am Mar 6, 2017 7:38am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi hi friend, FTI may be tune upset at the moment, hence allow me to attempt my take for you. This have been mentioned in the thread in the "200 pages" part, however, to answer your question, the 3 kingdom is in a way, how we look at things, how the usd is doing, how the euro and cable is doing, if usd strength is sighted, or if it is a mess. Is yen playing ball, or is yen causing a ruckus. Who is the boss of the 3 kingdom, or are they all fighting at the moment. 3 kingdom tells a alot and there is alot more she is telling in the fine details...
Thanks RelaxRay.
  • #57,058
  • Edited 2:57pm Mar 7, 2017 1:14pm | Edited 2:57pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi my friend, Sorry and sad to hear that. While feeding, hmm .. sounds like the dog is resource guarding. Is it a punctual wound or a skin wound? In my experience, for code red dogs once "triggered" they will draw blood which will result in punctual wound. These are very very difficult cases to rehab but not impossible. And if not code red, the negative habit might have been reinforce with reward unknowingly due to our rush of daily life and, maybe the lack of realisation. For example, with meal time, most tend to "get it over with" attitude...
noted, thank you ray.
is code red situation.
Dog training has 2 types. social friendly and unfriendly.
my babies are trained unfriendly and they trained each other same. If they short barks , is normally just alert. At close proximity they attack without warning. This the reason why they have their own compound. They normally sit at their zone and will not cross into my zone unless i invite them or when i am not in my zone. Mom was bitten in their zone.
Since the new puppy addition, i had noticed unease in the pack. Thats why i spend much time with them to mitigate their feelings. The new pup has pointy and very large ears and has been liked by mom for the alertness look. Most dogs, one has to watch tail for dog's temperament. This one tells by ear position. As the puppy has a fearless temperement. Not fear of size or growls warning. Very steady chap. This incident,i suspect is likely caused by pack positioning.
My eye sight is not good already, but mom's worst. So she not notice warning signs from em mostly. Feels safe around em. bad mistake.
Normally they sit in circle wait for mom place their bowls and not touch their food until mom turns and leaves. They are given finger signals training. Is easy manage, unless their temperement become unstable. Sometimes they play with eacch other while waiting for feed. But i had noticed, no one wants play with this pup.
Any way, my plans is no additions until i can get a handle on this. Its already 2 incidents and i really need solve this before moving forward. It painful for me keep puting friends away, but mom insist feed them due to my condition.

I am still thinking.
Thanks for pointers.

regards

i have policy, they draw blood without cause, they go. however painful.
畜生柯殺蹉,不放寬.......bingfa code...秉政

i either uplold the code or i can release the pack.
please understand, if not for the intervention by the weaker pack, i could be burying mom instead.
how am i suposed face dad in my afterlife.

in fact mom misses em more than me.
she was telling my brother, nevermind, its not their fault, is only flesh injury and they only animals.
  • #57,059
  • Edited 2:13pm Mar 7, 2017 1:19pm | Edited 2:13pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?
  • #57,060
  • Edited 4:13pm Mar 7, 2017 2:02pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting warbee
hi fti, i got some question, hope you can answer me. in early post, you got mention the 3 kingdom. so, when we trading, do we need to trade the 3 pair in the same time, or look for the opportunity in these 3 pair and trade them?
you start watch usd and dmk.
now is usd,euro
when you become more experienced.
you watch usd, euro, yen.
used to be ahead you should learn watch usd, euro, yen, sterling and chf.
but chf i have reason exclude after their unethics recently.

regards

You don't have to have positions in everything watched unless you have mastered read/recognise their 'basis' relationship impacts.
In markets is called intermarket tendencies. In fx is called crossrelations.
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