{quote} Larger trading range
i now holding on to ES short
Put on your Condom (SL) unless you want to get her pregnant (Acc Blow)
- #822
- Edited 3:08am Mar 6, 2017 2:50am | Edited 3:08am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
{quote} Wouldn't it be great to know when a trend ends
There are many ways that give a strong clue.
Now i know i am posting charts labelling with EW counts, which are too difficult to understand unless you have knowledge of such, however, don't be so quick to dismiss them because of this.
Trading is a learning process. Here is a chart of Brent Crude from approx a year ago;
Waves usually have fibonacci connections and there are formula's for these. Here we have a 5w move in the process. Wave 3 is exactly 200% of wave 1. Wave 4 as standard procedure will retrace 38.2% of wave 3.
My point being - by using this information, i can watch the common fib levels between waves and see if there is a reaction at one of them...
If a 123 occurs at a place where you are already expecting one, it forms a far stronger likelihood that it is a valid one;
So if we printed this eg;
You have your fib retracement level, your 123, your trigger and then the pullback. Add it all together and you've got a very strong set-up, also with a 5th wave to follow, thus fresh highs as a target.
I find myself constantly apologising for posting here on Harold's thread in what appears to be detracting from the original plan... and yet, clearly it is relevant. This is just one example where i actually regularly determine or predict the end of a trend.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
- #823
- Mar 6, 2017 3:07am Mar 6, 2017 3:07am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
Ok so here is a chart from the Q's end of Jan;
That is using wave counts to predict the end of a trend. You can see that i expect the trend to continue next South. Now in the next chart;
50% is not actually a fibonacci number, however, it is a very common retracement level in it's own right... As standard procedure i watch reactions at the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of any obvious prior moves (cycles). If we get a 123 off of one of these levels, it gives a far stronger indication of likely end of correction and back to main trend...
That is using wave counts to predict the end of a trend. You can see that i expect the trend to continue next South. Now in the next chart;
50% is not actually a fibonacci number, however, it is a very common retracement level in it's own right... As standard procedure i watch reactions at the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of any obvious prior moves (cycles). If we get a 123 off of one of these levels, it gives a far stronger indication of likely end of correction and back to main trend...
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
- #824
- Mar 6, 2017 3:12am Mar 6, 2017 3:12am
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,392 Posts
... using wave counts to predict the end of a trend....
!
- #825
- Mar 6, 2017 3:14am Mar 6, 2017 3:14am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
{quote} ...ermmmmm... but you DO get the jtLabs Award for the nicest looking charts
awww shucks, you're all heart JT!
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
- #826
- Mar 6, 2017 3:31am Mar 6, 2017 3:31am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
One last one whilst we are on the subject of determining a trend's end (and before i suffer more wrath of JT's mickey taking!!! - you know i love you JT?!);
Here is a great chart predicting ends of not one but two trends;
FTSE a year ago;
The overall move is abc corrective to the larger uptrend, but within that, of course, we also have the 'b' wave which is corrective to wave 'a'.
Even without knowing about these cycles... let's keep it simple; wave 'b' retraces 61.8% of wave 'a'. Wave 'c' is exactly 161.8% of wave 'a'.
Look for reactions and 123's at any of these levels. Once we know that a move is merely corrective, we will resume the main underlying trend and hence fresh highs to be expected.
The relevance of which is that you can then trade each break out and retest of S/D zone with a little bit more confidence.
Ok, i will go back over yonder now!
Here is a great chart predicting ends of not one but two trends;
FTSE a year ago;
The overall move is abc corrective to the larger uptrend, but within that, of course, we also have the 'b' wave which is corrective to wave 'a'.
Even without knowing about these cycles... let's keep it simple; wave 'b' retraces 61.8% of wave 'a'. Wave 'c' is exactly 161.8% of wave 'a'.
Look for reactions and 123's at any of these levels. Once we know that a move is merely corrective, we will resume the main underlying trend and hence fresh highs to be expected.
The relevance of which is that you can then trade each break out and retest of S/D zone with a little bit more confidence.
Ok, i will go back over yonder now!
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
- #827
- Mar 6, 2017 4:12am Mar 6, 2017 4:12am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 10,704 Posts
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
- #830
- Edited 10:04am Mar 6, 2017 5:36am | Edited 10:04am
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,392 Posts
- #831
- Mar 6, 2017 6:04am Mar 6, 2017 6:04am
- | Joined Apr 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,900 Posts
Hi folks long time lurker here, trader for 9 years, I never bothered signing up before now that was until I saw this thread as the way in which Divergence trades is very similar to my own with a few small exceptions I do admit copying the colour scheme- very nice. Anyway I dont know what a 2B or 123 is I trade the DAX on a 1 min chart (a 1 min chart is very similar to a 233 tick chart) I only ever really use limit orders my apoproach is that any new swing high/low or even small correction may become a res/supp zone, so far this morn up 30+ pips...
-Jason
- #833
- Mar 6, 2017 8:29am Mar 6, 2017 8:29am
- | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,319 Posts
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
- #834
- Edited 9:50am Mar 6, 2017 9:32am | Edited 9:50am
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,392 Posts
Not much doing for me today, 3 split-unit trades : -5-5, +5+1, +5+1, so back to where I started the session 
How did y'all do in the trading room today ?
How did y'all do in the trading room today ?
- #835
- Mar 6, 2017 10:07am Mar 6, 2017 10:07am
- | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 3,121 Posts
Not much doing for me today, 3 split-unit trades : -5-5, +5+1, +5+1, so back to where I started the session
Become the casino
- #838
- Mar 6, 2017 10:25am Mar 6, 2017 10:25am
- | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 3,121 Posts
{quote} Thanks, E : what would you describe as the basis of your first trade (your second was essentially the same as my third trade), please ? Were you "following along" in the room ?
Become the casino
- #839
- Mar 6, 2017 1:27pm Mar 6, 2017 1:27pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 10,704 Posts
and yet another tough day ended up flat on day where are the big ranging days of old
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future