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The Big secret to trading success

  • #761
  • Mar 5, 2017 7:58am Mar 5, 2017 7:58am
Quoting MoneyZilla
For me the biggest secret is timing. Catching the right moment to enter a trade?.
So true MoneyZilla. Determining the correct S&R level is the first part of the equation, but no strategy is complete until you have some way of knowing where to enter a trade. Nothing is black and white in trading, but a clearly identifiable trigger pull signal is an absolute necessity. Unless a trader has one, it is all guesswork.
  • #762
  • Mar 5, 2017 8:10am Mar 5, 2017 8:10am
COT data is meant to give a larger picture of things and it lags (week). It sorta like when as a kid your parents planned a long car trip. You have an idea of where you are going however you make many stops along the way.

The COT and indexes are 2 different animals. COT is looking at things from a 50,000 foot view and indexes are done on a intra-day basis.

News means nothing unless you have market participants active. How many times has news been hawkish or dovish only to have the market react in the opposite direction? News can be the catalyst to start something however it is the market participants that will determine the direction.
  • #763
  • Mar 5, 2017 8:13am Mar 5, 2017 8:13am
Just name it how it is:
the real secret is to have

1. an excellent trading method
and
2. a very high skill
  • #764
  • Mar 5, 2017 8:34am Mar 5, 2017 8:34am
Quoting XxixixX
COT data is meant to give a larger picture of things and it lags (week). It sorta like when as a kid your parents planned a long car trip. You have an idea of where you are going however you make many stops along the way. The COT and indexes are 2 different animals. COT is looking at things from a 50,000 foot view and indexes are done on a intra-day basis. News means nothing unless you have market participants active. How many times has news been hawkish or dovish only to have the market react in the opposite direction? News can be the catalyst...
If you want to know the bigger picture you need to understand the central banks agenda and the economy. The reason news trading fails traders is because they don't understand the fundamentals and either miss the important information or miss other market driving factors. So for example , if nfp is expected to be 163k and comes out as 180k, it might be confusing why the dollar is selling off. The thing is the selling could be a nail in the coffin for a rate hike or wage growth is worse than expected. These are the types of events that catch people who don't do the research and therefore read the data wrong. So sorry but I have to disagree with your approach here and suggest you don't sell this to new traders who don't know any better. Trading cot is also nowhere near as powerful as driving the trend off macro and micro analysis of the fundamentals. I'm not saying it doesn't work but what you are ultimately looking at is a one dimensional aspect of long term trends.
  • #765
  • Mar 5, 2017 8:35am Mar 5, 2017 8:35am
Yes, in reference to the last poster, it is good to keep it simple, as books can and have been written on this subject. When all is said and done however, it all boils down to this:

1/ Learn how to trade. How long does this take? It doesn't matter, but for most people, it takes at least several years.
2/ Be able to double a demo and/or micro account twice over using strict and proper money management criteria before trading a standard live account
3/ Trade your plan, with no interference.

Most do not do this, hence the very high failure rate.

Much more can be said, but actually, no more needs to be said.
  • #766
  • Mar 5, 2017 8:55am Mar 5, 2017 8:55am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} If you want to know the bigger picture you need to understand the central banks agenda and the economy. The reason news trading fails traders is because they don't understand the fundamentals and either miss the important information or miss other market driving factors. So for example , if nfp is expected to be 163k and comes out as 180k, it might be confusing why the dollar is selling off. The thing is the selling could be a nail in the coffin for a rate hike or wage growth is worse than expected. These are the types of events that catch...
No argument there with understanding Banks agenda and the economy however we saw what happened back a few years ago with their agenda , market participants stopped buying, they are the ones ultimately drive prices.
  • #767
  • Mar 5, 2017 9:01am Mar 5, 2017 9:01am
You don't need TA but it can give some people more confidence. I havent used TA in a year and I am more successful as a result. Each to their own though
  • #768
  • Mar 5, 2017 9:14am Mar 5, 2017 9:14am
Quoting EcoTrader
You don't need TA but it can give some people more confidence. I havent used TA in a year and I am more successful as a result. Each to their own though
You need to qualify this statement as it means very little to anyone. So if you use absolutely no TA, what do you use, and on what time frame are you trading, otherwise for all anyone knows, you could be using rune stones for your trading.
  • #769
  • Mar 5, 2017 9:20am Mar 5, 2017 9:20am
Quoting cat
{quote} You need to qualify this statement as it means very little to anyone. So if you use absolutely no TA, what do you use, and on what time frame are you trading, otherwise for all anyone knows, you could be using rune stones for your trading.
My trading process is only fundamental based. I don't look at charts.
  • #770
  • Mar 5, 2017 12:55pm Mar 5, 2017 12:55pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} My trading process is only fundamental based. I don't look at charts.
Fan of Jarratt Davis? Just curious when you place your trades, are you scaling in once a trend is underway, what do you use for targets and stops?
  • #771
  • Edited 2:45pm Mar 5, 2017 1:24pm | Edited 2:45pm
There's no secret ovbiously but I can tell you what's important:

Picking a good broker and making money.

That will happen if you're comfortable with your system/plan !

You don't really learn anything from other traders, even if they share a profitable strategy it may not be suitable for your "personality", eg. it requires lots of waiting etc.
Personally I do know several profitable strategies, but I discarded all of them because I can't deal with losing streaks and being conservative.

When I tried to be conservative I blew a 5k account and lost good part of the profits I made in the first 4-5 years of trading..
more money after I tried again and again... so I'm down by 4k overall... just because I listened to those who say "you have to risk 3%/trade" ... doesn't work for me!

Anyway it's very personal
  • #772
  • Mar 5, 2017 1:39pm Mar 5, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} Fan of Jarratt Davis? Just curious when you place your trades, are you scaling in once a trend is underway, what do you use for targets and stops?
I haven't taken his course but do attribute him to putting me on this path and from my experience, I think it is likely the best course out there based on the content.

For trend trading I scale in and out until price has met my target. Stops and targets are derived in percent change in price. So a trade could be 5 percent as the target and up to 2 percent for the stop.

Intraday I trade news off the back of the research I do for trends. I don't trade every news release,I only look at opportunities that provide short term shifts in price. In these instances my target is 70% of ATR and stop is approximately 3/8th of the ATR.
  • #773
  • Mar 5, 2017 2:47pm Mar 5, 2017 2:47pm
Quoting HeyYou
There's no secret ovbiously but I can tell you what's important: Picking a good broker and making money. That will happen if you're comfortable with your system/plan ! You don't really learn anything from other traders, even if they share a profitable strategy it may not be suitable for your "personality", eg. it requires lots of waiting etc. Personally I do know several profitable strategies, but I discarded all of them because I can't deal with losing streaks and being conservative. When I tried to be conservative I blew a 5k account and lost...
Very good dear how much you risk per trade or what system of m.m.
Thanks.
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -700
  • #774
  • Mar 5, 2017 2:56pm Mar 5, 2017 2:56pm
The Big secret to trading is....................Discipline - follow system / put stoploss.........Consistent - trade with money management, risk with certain % ON EACH TRADE......burst account many time due to big hit..............I am back againnnnn
Put on your Condom (SL) unless you want to get her pregnant (Acc Blow)
  • #775
  • Mar 5, 2017 3:02pm Mar 5, 2017 3:02pm
Quoting mohsinali
{quote} Very good dear how much you risk per trade or what system of m.m. Thanks.
I start small and risk around 25% every 100 pips, no super-high leverage. if I lose I hedge the position with another instrument.. and so on till I reach my % target . nothing complicated .
  • #776
  • Mar 5, 2017 4:34pm Mar 5, 2017 4:34pm
Guys the solution to every problem is generally simple, elegant and perverse in a way. You guys will never be successful until you understand what the game is about.
There is no secret in trading like in any field of life. All your point of views about the markets are right so far as you can profit from it. Also there is no formula in trading, but that doesn't mean you can blindfoldly enter trades and make money. But you gotta have a game plan and be flexible enough to know when the game plan is wrong and go the other way.
The game plan is subjective and reflects your views about how one should trade. Whether pullbacks,reversal, continuation, whatever... Who cares how you enter and exit trades.But objectively if you take any good trader, the universal truth behind their success can be summarized in George Soros's words.
Its not about how often you win or lose, its about how much you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.
Special one
  • #777
  • Mar 5, 2017 4:55pm Mar 5, 2017 4:55pm
Given these there are Four ways to make money in trading, whatever you use to define them is up to you.
You can
1. Trend following
2. Reversal trader
3. Range trading
4. Swing trading

Now each of these main grouping has an infinite amounts of ways to profit from. I have met Swing traders both successful who disagreed on their views of the markets. They are in the same grouping but how they do it completely black and white. Some are shorter term oriented others longer, I think the short term traders have a higher win rate than the long term traders. But the irony is long term trader is more profitable because when the long term trader nails it, He makes a killing. Some of his trades can more than double his account. Short term higher win rate but less profitable.


A breakout trader can also be a reversal trader or a pullback/continuation trader. Success in trading means understanding the game not parts of it. The style of good traders is only a matter of choice , depending on their beliefs,personality and comfortably. Think about it, How can you follow a trend without knowing when the trend is reversing. How can you be a reversal trader without knowing the structural characteristics of a trending market, how can you be a range trader unless you know when the dynamics is changing and the market is not more in a contractionary phase. And how can you be a swing trader without knowing that we are in a trend.

Special one
  • #778
  • Edited 5:18am Mar 6, 2017 1:41am | Edited 5:18am
I would also add a few words about automatic trading. I thought it was a solution to everything... well it isn't. If you program an EA to get rid of your weaknesses you're wrong. The EA should also reflect your personality.
  • #779
  • Mar 6, 2017 5:55am Mar 6, 2017 5:55am
Your brain is already a super computer, I don't even get why you will trust something less powerful than yourself. e.g will you send your 4year old kid instead of your 19yrs old child for something that really matters to you? You will never make a dime in this arena until you understand rule 1. Don't lose Money. My trading took a turn when i focused on not losing money rather than making. It won't turn you profitable at first but atleast by not losing you are half way there.
Special one
  • #780
  • Mar 6, 2017 8:07am Mar 6, 2017 8:07am
Quoting TradeGenuis
Your brain is already a super computer, I don't even get why you will trust something less powerful than yourself. e.g will you send your 4year old kid instead of your 19yrs old child for something that really matters to you? You will never make a dime in this arena until you understand rule 1. Don't lose Money. My trading took a turn when i focused on not losing money rather than making. It won't turn you profitable at first but atleast by not losing you are half way there.
you mean demo money right ?
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