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The Big secret to trading success

  • #741
  • Feb 21, 2017 11:16am Feb 21, 2017 11:16am
Quoting cat
{quote} I may well be, but it would be helpful for all followers of this thread if you would kindly explain why...
Exactly the question I would want him to answer, cuz I really don't see any major secrete to the market than being serious and consistent like you have said. So he should explain.
  • #742
  • Feb 21, 2017 3:56pm Feb 21, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} whateveridon, Don't explain to these fools. Keep them ignorant and stupid. They are the 90% that fail and keep them that way. There is nothing you can do for a losing trader. Every mistake these losing traders make the winning traders profit handsomely. And that's no secret The markets have no mercy for the 90% that fail. It's abysmal how bad most traders on FF are.
I will explain it.
  • #743
  • Feb 21, 2017 6:21pm Feb 21, 2017 6:21pm
very late,tired and stupid in writing in english

the big secret to trading it's in fact some little secrests (edge,money managemnt,emotions,perception,psychology)

i have seen people saing that trading it's easy, false. trading it's hard, like every job. you are racing against some very inteligent people in this bussines and people that have millions and billions.
just think at soros,dunn,kovner,rmarcus, taleb or even victor neiderhofer the smartest from this list but even like that he blow up 3 time

you see they all have an edge/edges some tricks to extract money from markets but you need more you need to be yourself, you need a "system" to approch market that is confortable to you and represents you.

for example you can make money using a coin for entry (random entry) but only if you cut the loss and lett the profit run. I'm not saing that markets are random or not,just thhis is a fact.

whay should someone give his edge/trick? it takes time and paine to discover it and even then most of the people don't have confidence don't folow the system (some legendary traders tech other people but almost failed)

how about this? dennis trained some folks some of them made money,huge money but after some time a lot of people traded same system or similar systems
and the system deteriorated after that. but here's a thing when some trend traders/funds entered long at new 20 day high others entered short,both becuse belived it's the right ting to do.(just read about turtle and tourtle soup to get an idee of what i;m talking) and you see this guys are smart millionaires and they traded opposite to each other.so how is right or wrong?
so if you have an edge it;s posible that someone take the edge but insted to go long when its saing long he will bet short
and here i'm talking trading instruments and systes/strategies that are easy for little guy
but in same time a guy working for an macro fund is entry long on glass companies in italy because it was a huge earthquake.
in 2013 i was long usd/rub and in some article after one year i read something like this " because that and that and bla bla bla its like usd/rub rate will catch with putin age 61" it was funny for me beacuse just in a second (so whitahout thinking) i just asked myself whay not 73 ??? yes exactly 73 .so i just hold my position and exit at 65 or above. you see from time to time its about feelings and bbelifes.
most of the time soros is a trend (if you don't belive in trends just use another word) trader but in 98 or 99 he was long ruble but in fact the trend it was bearish. in others bets he was with the trend he made money he losst money,nothing right or wrong.

i'm a trend trader ,my edges/tricks are to go with the trend yes going with the ilussion that hey i have a trend in this instrument, but my big little secret it's my
philosophy about markets in conclusion my edge is me myself and i.

actual prices can shape future events and when that future events beccome presents they can shape curent prices
Price itself it's an indicator
  • #744
  • Feb 22, 2017 7:49am Feb 22, 2017 7:49am
RondaRousey, some person claiming to be a trader who became an ff member in January, is blocked from this thread. This is not because I bear him/her any personal grudge, but because as you'll know if you've seen this person's posts, they are completely devoid of anything constructive, and amount to no more than unsubstantiated, pointless criticism of me and others.

Constructive criticism is very welcome on any of my threads, and I am always happy to be challenged as long as it benefits the thread and those who follow it, but the kind of empty headed, antagonistic and arrogant aspersions displayed by that particular individual will no longer be tolerated.

I like to keep my threads clean, constructive, informative, and most importantly, idiot free.
  • #745
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:09pm Mar 3, 2017 5:09pm
Quoting m3rlin
very late,tired and stupid in writing in english the big secret to trading it's in fact some little secrests (edge,money managemnt,emotions,perception,psychology) i have seen people saing that trading it's easy, false. trading it's hard, like every job. you are racing against some very inteligent people in this bussines and people that have millions and billions. just think at soros,dunn,kovner,rmarcus, taleb or even victor neiderhofer the smartest from this list but even like that he blow up 3 time you see they all have an edge/edges some tricks...

I know some things of price-volume. I think I can share them.
  • #746
  • Mar 3, 2017 6:16pm Mar 3, 2017 6:16pm
Too often I see threads like this where so many opinions regurgitate the same old lines.

- You can win with a 30% rate and all you need is to hold a trend

- trading has no secrets. You simply follow the trend (dozens of variations of this one)

- to be successful you need to learn patience and have sound money management

- the list goes on and on


The fact is 90 to 95 percent of traders fail. That means that you should question the legitimacy of everyone posting on this thread ( the entire forumn for that matter). It's interesting to note that very few actually link a live account to their profile. Out of the ones that do, most have clear problems. I don't think I would be far off the mark in thinking the ones that don't have something to hide. Whatever it is, it is prudent to keep this in mind when dealing with monikers online.
  • #747
  • Mar 3, 2017 6:26pm Mar 3, 2017 6:26pm
There are no secrets - trading is a negative-sum game. If you play it long enough, you will eventually lose all your money. Cut your losses and quit trading, at least with real money. If you must "scratch that itch", do as I do and just "trade" on Oanda Fxgame.
  • #748
  • Mar 4, 2017 12:06am Mar 4, 2017 12:06am
I was about to post an essay on "The big secret to trading success" but I deleted everything I wrote. I realised I don't consider myself a successful trader yet so I should'nt be able to have that trophy of explaining what I think the big secret to trading success is. I'm sure every trader knows the secrets right? Trade with the trend, discipline, consistent, there are no secrets, let your profits run and cut your losses short, system with an edge, books etc...

Irrelevant. The whole lot of it. I'm not discouraging this tread at all, I think its a great topic to talk about. So let's talk about it. It is your own personal journey that will make you succeed. You have to go through all the emotions, the losses, etc.. and you will eventually come to the point where you want to STOP. GIVE UP. You've lost too much money and your done for. When you get to this point, the most crucial point, you will then decide your fate in trading. Weather to keep going or to stop. Make or break. No book is going to help you become successful, no mentor, no other trader. You could only help yourself. No one knows who you are, what you've been through, how you interpret information. I could explain the same concept to two different people and they both might interpret it completely differently. We are all different.

You need to find yourself first. When you are content with yourself. You become thankful and appreciative of WHATEVER you have in life. Weather you live in a trash bin or a mansion. Either way your CONTENT with yourself. When you don't think of trading as the "lifestyle" you want to live and when you don't think about how much $ or pips your going to make from trading today is when you will see progress. I know this happens to the most of you, if you had a losing day yesterday you say to yourself I'm going to make that back and more tomorrow or I'm going to do this or that tomorrow.... HOW do you think like that? where is the guarantee your going to be alive even tomorrow? Don't plan your day for tomorrow. You can only HOPE you see tomorrow, just like most of you only HOPE the price goes in your favour. You can not guarantee you'll be alive tomorrow right? can you guarantee any trade? no. So if we look at trading how we look at life what do we see? We pretend to live life as if were never going to die, for the most of us right. We live life without thinking death is around the corner, doesn't even cross our minds most of the time. Because if we did, we would spend each and every single day very differently to how we spend it now.
How do we see trading? Before you sit on the chair and open your computer in your mind you already have that mentality that your going to make profit today, easy pips, guaranteed $$ just like how most of you could guarantee me right now that you will wake up tomorrow. You dont EVER think about a Black Swan event is just around the corner do you?

Break that mentality and trade in the moment. Live in the moment. Learn in the moment. Be in the moment. Weather or not you make money or lose money off trading be content. You wont get broken. You will push through. One way or the other. Your off days at trading won't impact your personal life and your emotions if you are content. The problem is never the markets the problem is you. When you change, your system changes, your style changes, the way you trade changes, the way you view trading changes. Only the people who sweat for their money will be rewarded. Stop searching for the perfect system. Perfect yourself and your system will perfect itself. Develop yourself and your system will follow through. You need to be able to have the will and stregnth for money not to ever break you and your morals. Not to lose yourself. What happens when people see a bit of $$$ coming in? they change. Correct your morals in life and your views and you will see light at the end of the tunnel in trading and life itself.
  • #749
  • Edited 12:40am Mar 4, 2017 12:29am | Edited 12:40am
Most traders fail at trading based on the endless quest to search for the Holy grail of systems or rely on fundamentals news to enter and exits trades. The reason why they fail is they are prone using a rule based system which cannot work when markets thrive on fear and greed. When it comes to TA and FA if things were to flow as they should example 2+2=4. However many traders fail to realize sentiment drives the market, 2+2=4 one day, than the next it could be 2+2=5. So many traders with the "Fixed mindset" will make adjustments to the 2+2=5, however the next day 2+2=0. Does this make sense? No but that is how sentiment works and why so many traders fail at being consistent. For those reading this post and getting frustrated with your results this is why.

Another way of looking at it, a family has 3 children, oldest is fundamental 2nd child is sentiment and 3rd child is technical. Middle children often have a identity crisis and many times act irrational. FA and TA are cut and dry to observe however learn to read sentiment and you will be in that 1% of successful traders. Yes there are ways to read sentiment on a chart even from a retail aspect.

For those that are not consistent I feel your pain (trading intra-day for 18 yrs.) took me 10 years to understand that sentiment drives the market and why every FA and TA I tested (over 1000 system) fell apart over time.
  • #750
  • Mar 4, 2017 3:41pm Mar 4, 2017 3:41pm
A famous quote, but so so true. Fear is death to a trader. Learn to overcome it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fear.jpg Size: 1,020 KB
  • #751
  • Mar 4, 2017 10:48pm Mar 4, 2017 10:48pm
Quoting XxixixX
Most traders fail at trading based on the endless quest to search for the Holy grail of systems or rely on fundamentals news to enter and exits trades. The reason why they fail is they are prone using a rule based system which cannot work when markets thrive on fear and greed. When it comes to TA and FA if things were to flow as they should example 2+2=4. However many traders fail to realize sentiment drives the market, 2+2=4 one day, than the next it could be 2+2=5. So many traders with the "Fixed mindset" will make adjustments to the 2+2=5, however...
XxixixX,

That's a bold and different take that Sentiment is the Key to winning the markets...

I am curious, Shouldn't TA reflect the sentiment or is Sentiment so forward looking/instantaneous that studying the past via charts is a wasted endeavor?

Thanks
  • #752
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:06pm Mar 4, 2017 11:06pm
For me the biggest secret is timing. Catching the right moment to enter a trade? Just few out of millions master that...

If one cannot always catch the right time with the right lot size (I am having that kind of issues), I suggest one to build a good exit strategy.

If one is unable of mastering timing (+ lot size), having a good exit plan when things go against your positions is a great idea...

I have no idea which is harder to make. I did try to sync with timing. Still trying. But I am almost always doing it with the wrong fucking lot. Therefore I decided it is safer to figure out a good exit plan when things go wrong for me? That one I did right. Actually I am always trading it. Always expecting the worst. Hoping for the best, but always, always expecting the worst to come first. And in my trading, the worst always comes first...

My exit plan buys me more time now, to try to chase the damn timing...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #753
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:26pm Mar 4, 2017 11:26pm
Quoting XxixixX
Most traders fail at trading based on the endless quest to search for the Holy grail of systems or rely on fundamentals news to enter and exits trades. The reason why they fail is they are prone using a rule based system which cannot work when markets thrive on fear and greed. When it comes to TA and FA if things were to flow as they should example 2+2=4. However many traders fail to realize sentiment drives the market, 2+2=4 one day, than the next it could be 2+2=5. So many traders with the "Fixed mindset" will make adjustments to the 2+2=5, however...
2+2= 4, 3+2= 5
  • #754
  • Mar 5, 2017 12:00am Mar 5, 2017 12:00am
Quoting whateveridon
{quote} 2+2= 4, 3+2= 5
Yes in a rule based system that is correct. As stated in my prior post sentiment says 2+2=5 some days, and other days 2+2=0. Does not make sense but that is how sentiment behaves.
  • #755
  • Mar 5, 2017 12:15am Mar 5, 2017 12:15am
Quoting aaven
{quote} XxixixX, That's a bold and different take that Sentiment is the Key to winning the markets... I am curious, Shouldn't TA reflect the sentiment or is Sentiment so forward looking/instantaneous that studying the past via charts is a wasted endeavor? Thanks
Think of it this way, when you drive a car, which way are you looking? If we spend too much time looking in the rear view mirror, what would happen? Too many traders put too much emphasis in what TA did in the past. Sure we need to be mindful of the past but the emphasis should be looking forward. TA can be used as a guide such as support and resist.

Here is a site that can be useful (broad based sentiment wise) before placing a trade, be inline with the direction of the index.

https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools...-index#c_index
  • #756
  • Mar 5, 2017 12:25am Mar 5, 2017 12:25am
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} Think of it this way, when you drive a car, which way are you looking? If we spend too much time looking in the rear view mirror, what would happen? Too many traders put too much emphasis in what TA did in the past. Sure we need to be mindful of the past but the emphasis should be looking forward. Here is a site that can be useful (broad based sentiment wise) before placing a trade, be inline with the sentiment (direction) of the index. https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools...-index#c_index
XxixixX,

Thanks for the inputs.

From what i understand, as such , we can study price charts, but people are looking at the wrong places?

Example: The need to study Currency Indexes even before studying the currency pairs?

Please do elaborate more and what other sources do we need to look first before even contemplating a trade?
  • #757
  • Mar 5, 2017 2:27am Mar 5, 2017 2:27am
There is nothing wrong with news trading. The people fail at it because they don't know the fundamentals.
  • #758
  • Mar 5, 2017 7:16am Mar 5, 2017 7:16am
Quoting aaven
{quote} XxixixX, Thanks for the inputs. From what i understand, as such , we can study price charts, but people are looking at the wrong places? Example: The need to study Currency Indexes even before studying the currency pairs? Please do elaborate more and what other sources do we need to look first before even contemplating a trade?
What you are trying to do is gain a pulse in the market, taking into consideration of all aspects in trading FA, TA, and sentiment analysis (SA). SA is an art and not so much an exact science like FA and TA tries to be.

The indexes are used as a guide. Is it near an area of support and resit? is it creating a B/O scenario or bouncing? Since I trade mostly intraday, before taking a trade I am glancing to see if I am sync with the index. Just have found I get stopped out less, follow through on targets are being met.

Would it be helpful to know what the larger players thoughts are? Another aspect of SA is looking at what they (larger players) are doing, so that way it helps to gain an idea of where things are heading (big picture wise). For example COT or Commitment of Traders data helps to shed some light. The data itself can be cumbersome to digest however this site helps to create a visual aid.

http://www.timingcharts.com/

Pull up a chart, click on the C.O.T indicator and pay attention to the green line. Keep in mind this can only be used for futures only based on the CME can track data The report lags a week (comes out on Tuesdays). With this in mind, the information is not meant to stand-alone in placing trades but rather helps get an idea of the overall sentiment of where things are heading. For example when Trump took office back in January, sentiment on the USD turned negative and all other majors turned bullish. Sorta tells you what the world thinks about Trump in his early days of taking office.
  • #759
  • Mar 5, 2017 7:50am Mar 5, 2017 7:50am
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} What you are trying to do is gain a pulse in the market, taking into consideration of all aspects in trading FA, TA, and sentiment analysis (SA). SA is an art and not so much an exact science like FA and TA tries to be. The indexes are used as a guide. Is it near an area of support and resit? is it creating a B/O scenario or bouncing? Since I trade mostly intraday, before taking a trade I am glancing to see if I am sync with the index. Just have found I get stopped out less, follow through on targets are being met. Would it be helpful to...
XxixixX,

Thanks for giving a detailed analysis...

1. So if when were looking at COT report of EURO futures, since Jul 2014, the positions of large players were negative implying Shorts? So essentially avoiding Long Trades on Euro would have been the best bet?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT Report-EURO.png Size: 104 KB


2. When you said, Trump took office, sentiment of USD tunred negative and other majors turning Bullish. Is it the index reflecting this behavior (or) COT (or) combination of both?

3. Since you trade mostly intraday in addition to looking at COT (position of players) as negative (or) positive do you also look at the change in position from one week to another i.e. Say -60k prior Tuesday and -30k this latest Tuesday. So 30k+ were added, so potentially looking to go long though the net positions are still in negative?


Thanks for shining light on a concept that i wasn't aware...
  • #760
  • Mar 5, 2017 7:54am Mar 5, 2017 7:54am
How can an index tell you the market is waiting for a speech or some market data? Also how is cot reports going to give you any session related information since sentiment can be dovish and cot can be hawkish?
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