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Bank Currency Strength

  • #61
  • Mar 2, 2017 11:29am Mar 2, 2017 11:29am
Quoting JayRai
{quote} Wouw. What a hate. Please do not mistake my kindness for weakness. Sorry to see that. I think you must have been hurt big time. Did you got scammed? But i have a solution to that. Actually, it is a, relative, cheap solution. It will cost you 3600,- in total to heal yourself. Rent the Bloomberg terminal with the orderbook plugin. Check also the CTA's while you are using the terminal. A small gift/tip there. Then come back and apologize. Maybe i will accept that. Or do they lie as well? And all the service providers are actually owned by Warren...
I think he does not damage or loss when you share a different perspective and me without any benefit on your part.
Because we often use the indicator when analyzing the market and tend to trust it, but the business banking watching market otherwise. We often assume that banks can't reach, but the fact that can touch, if we are to work as partner or COT license, data will be free released on Tuesday for the bank positions past week.
So I think you don't mind, keep going
  • #62
  • Mar 2, 2017 11:56am Mar 2, 2017 11:56am
Quoting JayRai
{quote} Wouw. What a hate. Please do not mistake my kindness for weakness. Sorry to see that. I think you must have been hurt big time. Did you got scammed? But i have a solution to that. Actually, it is a, relative, cheap solution. It will cost you 3600,- in total to heal yourself. Rent the Bloomberg terminal with the orderbook plugin. Check also the CTA's while you are using the terminal. A small gift/tip there. Then come back and apologize. Maybe i will accept that. Or do they lie as well? And all the service providers are actually owned by Warren...

Quoting JayRai
{quote} Wouw. What a hate. Please do not mistake my kindness for weakness. Sorry to see that. I think you must have been hurt big time. Did you got scammed? But i have a solution to that. Actually, it is a, relative, cheap solution. It will cost you 3600,- in total to heal yourself. Rent the Bloomberg terminal with the orderbook plugin. Check also the CTA's while you are using the terminal. A small gift/tip there. Then come back and apologize. Maybe i will accept that. Or do they lie as well? And all the service providers are actually owned by Warren...
Hello JayRai,

Any new idea/approach is initially met with some resistance. My opinion is right from the start, you were restricted from posting the data service that was needed for the analysis. As you had to work around that without taking any names or discussing their workings etc..., people might have wrongly misinterpreted it as vagueness translating into lack of forthcoming etc etc.... till the word scammer got thrown around...

For what it's worth, from what i have seen any thread here on FF containing any value faces shades of people hostility/nay sayers etc... A thread with a different approach magnifies that effect....

I apologize on their behalf and in all probability it was a communication gap from the inability to discuss everything that was needed...Kindly ignore what has happened, and please continue with the thread. Please don't punish the rest of us for the action of a few...

Thanks

PS: Now, i think we shouldn't have any problem to discuss any data services that goes with this approach. It will give people a chance to wet their feet....
  • #63
  • Edited Nov 13, 2025 5:54am Mar 2, 2017 12:03pm | Edited Nov 13, 2025 5:54am
Forgive me for I have not read through this thread, but from the last little bit I've glanced over I see people calling out JayRai saying he is secretly promoting a certain service that claims to offer bank positions while people are defending him saying he may be posting about his strategy out of the goodness of his heart. I have no idea whether he is genuinely trying to help or just trying to spark interest for a service. I've also never used or heard of BankersFX and have no idea whether it is for real or not, but I do know EFX offers this service and it is legit.

My advice, like for any thread, would be to take what he says with a grain of salt but give him a chance speak. For all we know, he may just want to help. But at the same time don't be foolish and look out for signals that he just wants to sell a service.

Like I said, I have no idea what is going on and am not attacking or defending anybody. What I do want to point out is that banks do publish their trades, and there are providers out there who offer bank positions as a service. That much is not a lie.

The attached pdf is an older one, but shows banks do show their positions. Clients can receive up to date information. Take note of the bottom left corner on page 1. Also look at page 12 and below.

{ copyrighted attachment deleted by staff }

JayRai, I hope you don't stop posting based off of what one or a few people say. Rise above that. But at the same time try to remember how popular FX scams are and any little thing that could become suspicious will lead to people shouting out scam to protect the general interests of the members of this community. At the end of the day you know what you are truly trying to accomplish, whether it's good or bad, and can react however desire.
  • #64
  • Edited 3:24pm Mar 2, 2017 2:43pm | Edited 3:24pm
Stand firm, JayRai.

The one will always find naysayers, muppets, trolls, beggars and haters when dealing with a crowd.

Yet he will meet people who would love to study the subject and reach the top of understanding of it.
  • #65
  • Mar 2, 2017 3:57pm Mar 2, 2017 3:57pm
Where to begin...

Yes, the markets moves loads amounts of money each day but banks aren't using their biggest investments in foreign exchange. In my experience, the smartest traders aren't the bankers but the HFT traders trading directly on the market floor. I had several opportunities to talk a bit with some of them in NY, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and London. Those are the real smart (read: highly intelligence) traders. Too intelligent (and complex) to trade for banks or to trade within a team.

In the meantime i received some nasty private messages, content is even moved to the commercial section and the thread is far away from a positive one.

I try to keep my live positive and thought that sharing some non-retail trader perspectives should generate a lot of positiveness.
At this moment i get the feeling that i need to defend myself against negativity. Also that i need to convince others about my approach or to convince people (and forexfactory) that i am not in any way are affiliated with any kind of services.

It all started in another thread where i posted a report about open bank positions to determine currency strength. It wasn't even my intention to start a thread but there came a lot of suggestions to start one. I thought about it and started this thread.

Please give me a moment to consider what to do next as i am, at this moment, not motivated to continue the thread. I will return shortly.

Sincere best wishes to all.
  • #66
  • Mar 2, 2017 3:58pm Mar 2, 2017 3:58pm
I checked on that service and traced to Atlas 5, Purmerend, NL - an apartment block

Prob just some guy in an apartment has nothing else to do so decided to build a scam website to lure newbies in. So that service is not worth it.
back... and more dangerous.
  • #67
  • Mar 2, 2017 4:21pm Mar 2, 2017 4:21pm
Quoting JayRai
Where to begin... Yes, the markets moves loads amounts of money each day but banks aren't using their biggest investments in foreign exchange. In my experience, the smartest traders aren't the bankers but the HFT traders trading directly on the market floor. I had several opportunities to talk a bit with some of them in NY, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and London. Those are the real smart (read: highly intelligence) traders. Too intelligent (and complex) to trade for banks or to trade within a team. In the meantime i received some nasty private messages,...
Please ignore those couple of pessimists, we were the ones asking you for opening a thread, we want to learn from you and appreciate your care for sharing and starting a thread for the community.
  • #68
  • Mar 2, 2017 8:39pm Mar 2, 2017 8:39pm
Quoting JayRai
Where to begin... Yes, the markets moves loads amounts of money each day but banks aren't using their biggest investments in foreign exchange. In my experience, the smartest traders aren't the bankers but the HFT traders trading directly on the market floor. I had several opportunities to talk a bit with some of them in NY, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and London. Those are the real smart (read: highly intelligence) traders. Too intelligent (and complex) to trade for banks or to trade within a team. In the meantime i received some nasty private messages,...
Jay Rai,

Permit me to add a tidbit of information from my experience here on FF.

Every thread on FF; I repeat every thread containing any value will be visited by negative people wanting to disrupt. Please take consolation in the fact this behavior is a reflection of their state of mind and doesn't reflect your standing in any manner.

An one old post I remember that describes this phenomenon:

Consider a key event and you are the key note speaker. You have walked upto the podium and preparing yourself to give your speech and waiting for the participants to come and settle in their seats. Slowly the participants are beginning to take their seats, the first few rows are beginning to get filled.

You are just a few minutes away from speaking to the audience. Just a little later, the hall is filled an you begin....

You have introduced yourself and tell every one the significance of the topic and see some people in the 1st row standing and approaching the podium. They start arguing with you how they are more qualified than you... few more from the 1st row join in the argument and tell how their area of specialty is far superior than yours....

While in this commotion, you also realize that some people from 2nd row have gone up to the podium and started taking lecturing to your participants on some other topic without any relevance to your's or for that matter the initial crowd that has attacked you...

The above phenomenon goes on in every thread...

So please, you stopping the thread is exactly some of the people who attacked you want and don't let them win...

More importantly, we are the ones who are getting value and you are in a position to elevate our thinking and take our trading to the next level.

So please continue the thread...

Thanks
  • #69
  • Mar 2, 2017 9:40pm Mar 2, 2017 9:40pm
Everyone who believes this BS is clearly a noob.

Banks will never reveal their true positions to the public.
It's top secret.
It will only be shared with other bank traders from time to time, for specific (illegal) reasons.
  • #70
  • Edited Mar 5, 2017 1:33am Mar 4, 2017 11:56pm | Edited Mar 5, 2017 1:33am
Quoting JayRai
...
Hi JayRai,
Thanks for sharing your alternative trading approach buddy.

  1. Can you confirm that data obtained from different souces is similar? I mean the levels, TP, SL and open time for the same banks match for BankersFX and eFXplus and some other for example.
  2. Can you confirm that such high rated and trust resources as Bloomberg, Reuters also publish such data on commercial basis?
  3. Can you provide some screenshots to prove the answers of the above questions?
  4. Does the data from BankersFX, eFXplus and other commercial sources differs much from CFTC data? I mean sentiment mostly. Does this data comply with sentiment which may be found here here here ?
  5. Have you ever tryed timingcharts.com based on COT? Do you consider it useful?

Have a nice w/e mates.

BR, alex
  • #71
  • Mar 5, 2017 5:19am Mar 5, 2017 5:19am
@JaiRay

Why don't you post a MyFxBook verified live account link to clear all the doubts...?
  • #72
  • Mar 5, 2017 6:30am Mar 5, 2017 6:30am
Hello Guys,

My First Analysis for the coming week:

1. Selection of the Currency Pair:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Position Analysis.png Size: 106 KB


Looking at the positions, the strongest is USD and weakest is EUR. So the potential trade for the week would be Short EUR/USD.

I have ignored limit orders....

2. Trade Entry:

EUR-USD 4 HR Chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-USD.png Size: 34 KB


I have marked Two Resistance Lines (Yellow) and highlighted an area as resistance area instead of using the Resistance Lines(i.e. price touching a specific price level).

RSI-5 Period with 75 and 25 for O/B and O/S levels...

I see that the price is already in the resistance area, and RSI has crossed 75 and would have been a candidate for Short, but this is at the end of the week. I will be looking for this behavior to repeat itself in the coming week (or) if the price opens very close to the week's closing and if RSI is still above 75+, i would consider it a candidate for selling...


3. Exit for this test trade:

Yet to figure out the criteria for Exit...


Note:

1. This is a test analysis for my end and for demoing . Pleas don't interpret it as some sort of call to take a trade.
2. I am fairly new to Forex and in demoing phase at this point in my trading journey and i have repeated this many times in my previous posts as well.
3. Before i get asked, The Positions i used i got it from efxplus and i am checking their trial version. The snapshot is for End of Week Positions.I am in no way connected to them and nor am i endorsing them.
4. The S/L for this test trade is 1000 PIPS...Be aware of this fact...

Thanks
  • #73
  • Mar 6, 2017 12:09am Mar 6, 2017 12:09am
Update:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Update.png Size: 44 KB
  • #74
  • Edited 2:44am Mar 6, 2017 1:01am | Edited 2:44am
Quoting aaven
Update: {image}
Just wated to add my 2 cents.
The sentiment itself doesn't mean much. The most important thing in this kind of trading (Banks following & sentiment) is a trigger point. And it appears when at the sentiment change moment. Otherwise you are risking to be late for your train. Sentiment does not change often and the best deals (with minimum risk) you may enter are the first days after sentiment change.
For example EURUSD sentiment remain extremely bearish 5 months and it is bearish now. You have found (as it seems to you) much better (higher) entry price and opened long(edited) short position but a few days later sentiment changed to bullish, price begain to fall and your position become losing.
BR, alex
  • #75
  • Mar 6, 2017 2:18am Mar 6, 2017 2:18am
Quoting sevan62
{quote} Just wated to add my 2 cents. The sentiment itself doesn't mean much. The most important thing in this kind of trading (Banks following & sentiment) is a trigger point. And it appears when at the sentiment change moment. Otherwise you are risking to be late for your train. Sentiment does not change often and the best deals (with minimum risk) you may enter are the first days after sentiment change. For example EURUSD sentiment remain extremely bearish 5 months and it is bearish now. You have found (as it seems to you) much better...
Hello Sevan62,

Thanks for the inputs.

Could you please help me understand better:

1. So you are saying, the best entry would be change of sentiment, in this case Bank Positions going long after closing their shorts?

2. If the sentiment doesn't change much often and we enter at the trigger point of sentiment change, wouldn't we be holding the trades for months together?
How would we renter...

3. In the above example, the entry would have been Short. Seeing that EUR has been bearish for 5 months till now, how would you have traded?


Thanks in advance...
  • #76
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:02am Mar 6, 2017 3:02am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Hello Sevan62, Thanks for the inputs. Could you please help me understand better: 1. So you are saying, the best entry would be change of sentiment, in this case Bank Positions going long after closing their shorts? 2. If the sentiment doesn't change much often and we enter at the trigger point of sentiment change, wouldn't we be holding the trades for months together? How would we renter... 3. In the above example, the entry would have been Short. Seeing that EUR has been bearish for 5 months till now, how would you have traded? Thanks...
Hi Aaven,

  1. Sure mate. This is exactly what I mean. The idea behind it is that the later you are entering after setiment change the closer next sentiment change point would be with increasing risks.
  2. Right buddy. But the longer we are holding our trades opened the more worried about profit securing we should become. And become more ready to close our positions with fixing profit or loss.
  3. Sorry buddy, Short of course. Edited. Imho in this above example it is better to stay away from entering and wait for another entry signal (sentiment change).

Hope you are able to understand me with my broken English.

BR, alex
  • #77
  • Mar 6, 2017 5:00am Mar 6, 2017 5:00am
Don't want to dilute this thread but it is on the same theme and something I find very useful.

One thing that banks will look at is change of bias by Central Banks and their forward guidance.

For instance the RBNZ a few weeks ago changed its forecast over interest rates. We are still feeling that effect today. From the moment Wheeler told the market that they will not be raising interest rates for a long time the Kiwi never recovered

The Bank of Canada has a bearish view on the Canadian economy this was despite some reasonable figures coming through. The USDCAD has been on an upward trajectory since then

Its the tone of their speeches that matter and how they feel about the economy.
  • #78
  • Mar 6, 2017 5:31am Mar 6, 2017 5:31am
Quoting sevan62
{quote} Hi Aaven, Sure mate. This is exactly what I mean. The idea behind it is that the later you are entering after setiment change the closer next sentiment change point would be with increasing risks. Right buddy. But the longer we are holding our trades opened the more worried about profit securing we should become. And become more ready to close our positions with fixing profit or loss. Sorry buddy, Short of course. Edited. Imho in this above example it is better to stay away from entering and wait for another entry signal (sentiment change)....
Excellent Sevan62...

Your English is good. Please don't sell your self short...

Everything you said makes sense. I still have one doubt though:

1. If sentiment changes like every few months, how do we increase the number of trade signals? I mean if we enter on sentiment change, we will have only 1 or 2 trades per year?

Thanks
  • #79
  • Mar 6, 2017 5:33am Mar 6, 2017 5:33am
Quoting Fader123
Don't want to dilute this thread but it is on the same theme and something I find very useful. One thing that banks will look at is change of bias by Central Banks and their forward guidance. For instance the RBNZ a few weeks ago changed its forecast over interest rates. We are still feeling that effect today. From the moment Wheeler told the market that they will not be raising interest rates for a long time the Kiwi never recovered The Bank of Canada has a bearish view on the Canadian economy this was despite some reasonable figures coming through....
How do you quantify the forward guidance? i.e. measure the effects of the changes in forward guidance?

Is it something like reading the research reports of the Banks once the forward guidance change is effected?

Thanks
  • #80
  • Mar 6, 2017 7:10am Mar 6, 2017 7:10am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Excellent Sevan62... Your English is good. Please don't sell your self short... Everything you said makes sense. I still have one doubt though: 1. If sentiment changes like every few months, how do we increase the number of trade signals? I mean if we enter on sentiment change, we will have only 1 or 2 trades per year? Thanks
For sure mate it isn't an HFT approach.
But sentiment changes not once or twice a year. Imho from 3 to 6 times per year in average. And we have not the only one currency and pair to trade. Of course only few of them are good to trade at particular moments. So i consider we may expect from 5-10 to 15-25 good long term opportunities per year but not 1-2. I hope you will track sentiment change for different currencies/pairs with your trial subscription and keep us updated with new data so we may get better knowledge and make some conclusions on this topic.
Thanks for your generosity Aaven!
BR, alex
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