Oil and Natural Gas | Page 136 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Natural gas trading 113 replies

Natural Gas Stopped out Bad start 8 replies

Why is natural gas going down? 6 replies

Differences in Oanda natural gas prices? 6 replies

natural gas - 10 consecutive red candles in a row 10 replies

Attachments: Oil and Natural Gas
Exit Attachments

Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,701
  • Mar 2, 2017 5:23am Mar 2, 2017 5:23am
Anyone know why this is such a lagg since the last few weeks (months)? I mean opec cut already but reports have been bearish and still no real price movement.
  • #2,702
  • Mar 2, 2017 5:35am Mar 2, 2017 5:35am
Quoting kweiss10
Anyone know why this is such a lagg since the last few weeks (months)? I mean opec cut already but reports have been bearish and still no real price movement.
There is speculation that the price is being propped up because of the upcoming Aramco IPO. Apparently the IPO cannot go ahead if price is Below $50.
  • #2,703
  • Mar 2, 2017 5:36am Mar 2, 2017 5:36am
Quoting waxcrayon
{quote} There is speculation that the price is being propped up because of the upcoming Aramco IPO. Apparently the IPO cannot go ahead if price is Below $50.
I though that IPO is in a year. They will prop price up till then? This is not even propping price up at 54+ USD.
  • #2,704
  • Mar 2, 2017 6:54am Mar 2, 2017 6:54am
$50 is around the viability threshold for American shale producers. When the price goes up they turn up the production.

We really need an explosion in energy consumers, such as if all the Chinese started riding mopeds ... gasoline-powered mopeds.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,705
  • Mar 2, 2017 10:07am Mar 2, 2017 10:07am
Quoting skyhok
USOIL back to 55.00 before the push down {image}
I don't know enough about Eliott Waves, but I have studied pullbacks, where they form and why they form (and occasionally guessed when they form). The bounce from the bottom today is in my theory significant.
I think that if it doesn't go any lower than today's low, it should take out the orange peak number 3 in your image, but could potentially stay below the yellow (b). There it might give another great sell opportunity. If it drops below today's low, this low would become a strong resistance.

k
  • #2,706
  • Mar 3, 2017 8:39am Mar 3, 2017 8:39am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} I don't know enough about Eliott Waves, but I have studied pullbacks, where they form and why they form (and occasionally guessed when they form). The bounce from the bottom today is in my theory significant. I think that if it doesn't go any lower than today's low, it should take out the orange peak number 3 in your image, but could potentially stay below the yellow (b). There it might give another great sell opportunity. If it drops below today's low, this low...
Yes, as complex as it gets since 10th January low, there's still a chance that this wave pattern could bounce again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOilH1 3Mar17.png Size: 80 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #2,707
  • Mar 3, 2017 8:55am Mar 3, 2017 8:55am
The bottom has roughly held (so far). The push up and then down might be extremely quick, not to give too much sell opportunity. Anything slow is suspicious.
k
  • #2,708
  • Edited 10:20am Mar 8, 2017 8:20am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting kprsa
The bottom has roughly held (so far). The push up and then down might be extremely quick, not to give too much sell opportunity. Anything slow is suspicious. k
The support failed now. I expect this to continue down to cca 30-35 dollars in the longer run (somebody was mentioning the Wolfe wave setup), I intend to sell the tops in the meantime.

Cheers,
k

Edit: image of the WW setup below. The goal is the green line... Eventually...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Clipboard01.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #2,709
  • Mar 8, 2017 9:40am Mar 8, 2017 9:40am
Damn! I just finished averaging down my holding in Amerisur...
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,710
  • Mar 9, 2017 4:33am Mar 9, 2017 4:33am
wtf is going on!

this thing is just falling like a rock... falling sword actually I could name it, not a falling knife...

I think Brent heading toward $50, That is where I am considering to go long.
There's no harm in being smtm wrong especially if one is promptly found out
  • #2,711
  • Mar 9, 2017 9:00am Mar 9, 2017 9:00am
Commodities are falling like a rock all over the place. Its because of the Feds expactations the market is already reacting. Its a damn strong trend starting on the brent right now so I would wait first before I enter long especially at 50.
  • #2,712
  • Mar 9, 2017 9:06am Mar 9, 2017 9:06am
Oil companies don't spend money trying to find something, if they know where it is...the drilled but uncompleted wells is quite high, if you do your research. And they know the rocks in the Permian are the biggest source of oil in the world, if you want to know the truth.
  • #2,713
  • Mar 9, 2017 9:07am Mar 9, 2017 9:07am
One curious fact is that Saudi Arabia had apparently decided to capitalize on the firmness on oil prices by selling more of its oil into the U.S. market. In December, Mr. Al-Falih had stated at a news conference that tanker nominations for January deliveries would be limited.

But that has been proven to be untrue with regard to deliveries to the United States. Imports in the year-to-date from the Kingdom rose by 29% from December and are 22% higher than in the same period last year.
  • #2,714
  • Mar 13, 2017 11:32am Mar 13, 2017 11:32am
Though brent had to correct before the target 69 level yet it is on a nominal support nearby at 50, daily close wise 48.8 around but may bo further towards 44 & 41 also before the show. take care , fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BRENTDaily.png Size: 37 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #2,715
  • Mar 13, 2017 11:41am Mar 13, 2017 11:41am
Quoting fontu
Though brent had to correct before the target 69 level yet it is on a nominal support nearby at 50, daily close wise 48.8 around but may bo further towards 44 & 41 also before the show. take care , fontu {image}
May CL (WTI) implied volatility is around 32% which puts $45 in play. As i stated in earlier post , path to $60 is not straight line. If we could only see similar moves in equities life would be good - at least for me. LOL
  • #2,716
  • Mar 15, 2017 4:12am Mar 15, 2017 4:12am
Pay attention to today's EIA crude oil inventories report. WTI gained some yesterday due to API reporting minor crude oil draw. However, recently, EIA and API never agreed with each other, so if you see another crude buildup today, sell. Sell with all your heart.
"Don't lose your cool, and you will fare well".
  • #2,717
  • Mar 15, 2017 4:30am Mar 15, 2017 4:30am
At the moment this appears to be the thing which is depressing oil prices.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....countsoverview
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,718
  • Edited Mar 16, 2017 11:14am Mar 15, 2017 9:02pm | Edited Mar 16, 2017 11:14am
USOIL may or may not have bottomed, while the longer-term target of 53.30 is holding, further tracing out expanding ranges for trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOIL 16Mar17.png Size: 92 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #2,719
  • Mar 16, 2017 1:55am Mar 16, 2017 1:55am
Held short yesterday until I saw EIA report. Closed position, and went long. Target: 52. Special attention needs to be paid on Friday, when Baker Hughes announces new oil rig count.

Oil's gains are vulnerable, and bulls need more than this small draw in inventories to be confident again. Oil is will be extremely sensitive to all kind of news these days.
"Don't lose your cool, and you will fare well".
  • #2,720
  • Edited 3:32pm Mar 22, 2017 3:13pm | Edited 3:32pm
Long at 48. Current price 48.15.

This instrument is now reacting to fundamentals in weird way. Many have expected further drop due to EIAs bearish report today, but seems that it was already priced in prior to report release. Currently, the pair has regained all loss it suffered during day.

One of the reason might be that there is a hint that oil inventories are being used, due to consistent gasoline inventory draw, and due to expected summer drawdown. Also, the OPEC members seems to agree with further production cuts, but they also note that collaboration with non OPEC members is needed.

All in all, long term trend is still bullish. For swing traders, pay attention if today's candle will result in bullish or bearish close. This might be just a "dead cat bounce".

I will leave technical analysis to someone who is into it...

(note: I am long from 48.00 in swing trading. Keep in my that with swing and position trading there are wide SL and TP points which simply cannot work with intraday trading. For intraday trading, check for yourself, or listen to someone who does intraday trading).
"Don't lose your cool, and you will fare well".
2 traders viewing now