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vsa with Malcolm

  • #28,421
  • Feb 23, 2017 4:17am Feb 23, 2017 4:17am
I love the short side of the market. As a consequence I used to hate test bars as they tend to fail in a weak market. Instead I should have been ready to jump on them & short like crazy. I used other methods to find my entries.

During the last break I re - read MTM & did a lot more analysis with now a lot more insight into the long side of the market. Yes, once again I have fallen in love with the long side of the market.

Now, as many disagreed with me, (correctly) I love test bars again as a safe point of entry.
Coupled with reading areas of support, see how quickly they test.

Note how with more intense areas of support comes rapid testing. I call it the principle of certainty. The market wants to be very sure of their next move. Tom says that they test the market frequently.

Look for demand on the down bars at a support base in this case.
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  • #28,422
  • Feb 23, 2017 8:08am Feb 23, 2017 8:08am
Quoting paogeh
{quote} Forgot to add, do SM lose $$$ ?

The Smart Money is not the smart money because they never lose , they're the Smart Money because they lose better.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #28,423
  • Edited 9:01am Feb 24, 2017 7:15am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting pres78
{quote} When it comes to the news though we still need to see the reaction after the initial spike. It is not always as it first seems. We will see how this plays out today and then I will make some decisions on my EURJPY shorts. This is where trade management and risk management comes into play.
EURJPY

See what I mean? The WR up bar off the news was a sucker move. No continuation, no follow through. The price was marked up to previous supply and we then fell again and are down testing that low of the Dec 5th bar. This is why I never panic and let things play out. Imagine I had accepted the knee jerk reaction as true and closed all my sells.

Patience is a virtue in trading.

I kept that Feb 22nd WRB zone on my chart the last two days for intraday trading as it is the highest volume zone this week and we are inside it. Check out the awesome post LO action at the 50% level. I found a killer ND on the 5-minute chart 2 hrs and 15 mins after LO and traded it back down to the L of the Feb 22nd zone. Great little intraday trade.

I've also started to trail down some of my Daily SL's based on recent PA.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,424
  • Feb 24, 2017 11:50am Feb 24, 2017 11:50am
Quoting pres78
{quote} EURJPY See what I mean? The WR up bar off the news was a sucker move. No continuation, no follow through. The price was marked up to previous supply and we then fell again and are down testing that low of the Dec 5th bar. This is why I never panic and let things play out. Imagine I had accepted the knee jerk reaction as true and closed all my sells. Patience is a virtue in trading. I kept that Feb 22nd WRB zone on my chart the last two days for intraday trading as it is the highest volume zone this week and we are inside it. Check out the...
Lovely end of the day on EURJPY. Too late in the day and week but check out that lovely ND into the shared low.

White zone = today's zone L, yellow zone is the Feb 22nd zone L. I love those shared levels.

Awesome.

Let's see what next week brings.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,425
  • Feb 26, 2017 9:18am Feb 26, 2017 9:18am
Hey guys. I've read in this thread for a couple of hours now and the VSA method looks promising

Is there any suggestions on how to get into it and accelerate the learning curve? Is there any short cuts or should i start from post #1?

Best

René
  • #28,426
  • Feb 27, 2017 3:34am Feb 27, 2017 3:34am
Quoting ReneMoretti
Hey guys. I've read in this thread for a couple of hours now and the VSA method looks promising Is there any suggestions on how to get into it and accelerate the learning curve? Is there any short cuts or should i start from post #1? Best Ren
First read Master the Markets by Tom Williams. Then search for wyckoff logic images on google.
Now combine the two that are the "same".
I'd rather start with wickoff in zoom out.
And then after finding phase A I look for phase C to tell me if it is (re) accumulation \ (re) distribution.
In C and D you can then zoom in using the techniques of Tom Williams to enter.
Later you can start studying Intermarket analysis To combine different markets in correlation.
  • #28,427
  • Feb 27, 2017 9:57am Feb 27, 2017 9:57am
Trying to watch some zone reactions and got some question and SL also (as usual).

I did trade USDCAD tests, the only thing i see - i should leave trade after ND right at resistance.
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  • #28,428
  • Feb 27, 2017 10:13am Feb 27, 2017 10:13am
Quoting LuckyMind
Trying to watch some zone reactions and got some question and SL also (as usual). I did trade USDCAD tests, the only thing i see - i should leave trade after ND right at resistance. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Chart 1 - not tests. Tests need to be testing into new recent lows. The first bar is a NS at best. Always best to wait for the high to be broken and get in on a test during a retrace back to the zone. After that ND (3rd bar) yes it's time to get out as we have seen no move away and now see ND.

Chart 2 - not a pres78 2BR as it closes way too far off the L. 2nd one is a decent looking 2BR into a shared level, again the issue is we are still inside the current zone. As noted above seeing a break of the H and getting in on a retrace is always safer.

Chart 3 - why not. We have moved away from the zone and retraced into it on reducing volume ending on that great little test/NS bar. Trade back up to today zone L. Note too that LO isn't even the highest volume zone. We had a UHV zone print during Asia. See how both the H and 50% are close to shared level so seeing that test adds some value to it.

SL placement is about risk tolerance. If you are taking an entry from 50% use the L, entry from the H use 50% but again this has to make sense. We want to make sure our SL is placed below or above an area we know has been already tested. Also, we need to be able to get 1:1 before the next S or R to be able to justify taking the trade. Getting better at entry timing helps us be able to use tighter SL and get better R:R.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,429
  • Feb 27, 2017 10:25am Feb 27, 2017 10:25am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Chart 1 - not tests. Tests need to be testing into new recent lows. The first bar is a NS at best. Always best to wait for the high to be broken and get in on a test during a retrace back to the zone. After that ND (3rd bar) yes it's time to get out as we have seen no move away and now see ND. Chart 2 - not a pres78 2BR as it closes way too far off the L. 2nd one is a decent looking 2BR into a shared level, again the issue is we are still inside the current zone. As noted above seeing a break of the H and getting in on a retrace is always...
Many thanks! It really helped
Actually my eyes opened about tests. Really your words clarified a lot. I always thought, why so many "tests" at bullish market are failed and a few bars later i saw positive tests. Now i understand. Just trying to find an example to fix it
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  • #28,430
  • Feb 28, 2017 12:35am Feb 28, 2017 12:35am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Well if LO was the bar you marked then the highest volume bar must have been an afternoon speech as it was 2PM EST. I wouldn't make any call on bulls or bears until the high or low was taken out and would be looking to trade that zone the next day at LO... All 3 high volume bars that day were up bars so unless there is an old high to the left I can't see then it seems like we might be seeing sellers but too hard to tell at this point in time with the info on the chart.

thanks! wasn't the 2nd bar with that spread & volume an end of rising market? I thought you might have traded this pair so you might have recognised this chart.

Now of course i'm not testing your skills, all I want to know is how do you guys think in so I could know how much it is in harmony with my way of thinking. Do lemme know what you guys think of that up bar in the below 1H charts. I have wiped out some details so i could have a more real time opinion.

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for background
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The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,431
  • Feb 28, 2017 2:09am Feb 28, 2017 2:09am
Hello Pres
If we get an nd and took the trade then again ns printed then we should close the trade or let it run?
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  • #28,432
  • Feb 28, 2017 8:51am Feb 28, 2017 8:51am
Stop Loss catcher is here

The only conclusion that I can do - its to try trade low volume signals, not increasing.
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  • #28,433
  • Feb 28, 2017 9:18am Feb 28, 2017 9:18am
Quoting Vcv13
{quote} thanks! wasn't the 2nd bar with that spread & volume an end of rising market? I thought you might have traded this pair so you might have recognised this chart. Now of course i'm not testing your skills, all I want to know is how do you guys think in so I could know how much it is in harmony with my way of thinking. Do lemme know what you guys think of that up bar in the below 1H charts. I have wiped out some details so i could have a more real time opinion. {image} for background {image}
The charts you attached are USDJPY (whichI don't trade). Again I would not assume much about that up bar until the H or L is taken out. At the time I would feel markup to fill sells but again I need to see the result. Trading live I don't see any trades from this zone and it would have been replaced by a zone on the next trading day. It was actually a bit deceiving as the zone the next trading day was a high volume down bar which resulted in higher prices for a brief moment. Price was actually marked up to the 50% of the Feb 23rd zone where it was rejected leading to lower prices today. LO today was actually a markup rejection from the H of yesterday's down bar zone. We are currently testing back up into the L of that same zone after closing below it a couple of hours ago.

All that within a 100 pip range... that's why I don't trade USDJPY. Too slow for me.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,434
  • Feb 28, 2017 9:23am Feb 28, 2017 9:23am
Quoting saad007
Hello Pres If we get an nd and took the trade then again ns printed then we should close the trade or let it run? {image}
The ND closed above the zone L. I won't take a ND or NS that closes above or below a level. It can pass through the level but MUST close back above or below it. Also the L of the ND was NOT taken out so there was no trade based on the VSA ND entry rule of only taking an entry if the L + pip buffer is taken out within 2 bars (or something like that). Based on those two reasons there should have been no short taken.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,435
  • Feb 28, 2017 9:37am Feb 28, 2017 9:37am
Quoting LuckyMind
Stop Loss catcher is here The only conclusion that I can do - its to try trade low volume signals, not increasing. {image} {image}
AUDUSD - I don't trade this pair. Today's zone inside yesterday zone on lower volume. That UT closed below 50% of today yes but still inside the zone from yesterday... Each time we take out the L we didn't get anywhere and closed back inside the zone on the very next bar... every time. I would have no interest in going short (or long) for that matter until we see some decent signs of trending PA. Sideways and raging PA kills traders...

EURJPY the NS and test aren't even touching the zone H... they are floating in space... Also the H of the NS and test were NOT taken out so again no trade. Also those were pre-LO so your at much greater risk for false signals during Asia... And yes lower volume ND or NS or tests are always a bit safer. Notice though how 50% from yesterday's zone did hold price on that return after the L had been taken out. As LO printed fully inside yesterday's bar and was on lower volume I would not even bother putting it on... I would take note that 50% was close to being shared so a re-test would be likely especially after not seeing much move away from the zone after that UT... too much unfinished business to take care of.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,436
  • Feb 28, 2017 11:52pm Feb 28, 2017 11:52pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} AUDUSD - I don't trade this pair. Today's zone inside yesterday zone on lower volume. That UT closed below 50% of today yes but still inside the zone from yesterday... Each time we take out the L we didn't get anywhere and closed back inside the zone on the very next bar... every time. I would have no interest in going short (or long) for that matter until we see some decent signs of trending PA. Sideways and raging PA kills traders... EURJPY the NS and test aren't even touching the zone H... they are floating in space... Also the H of the...
AUDUSD - its closed not inside the zone from yesterday. I try to determine the true breakdown if the next bar, after we close outside zone, does not return into zone.

EURJPY - High of test was taken, thats why i was in trade. Yeah, trade was too early and in space, but rally like ND-increasing test / NS-increasing UT setups.

At AudUsd now (second chart) the combination of examples we are talking about. Im interesting if this down bar enough for you to looking for shorts? (Its early again, but just interesting from PA side)
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  • #28,437
  • Mar 1, 2017 4:36am Mar 1, 2017 4:36am
Good, that its demo...
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  • #28,438
  • Mar 1, 2017 9:17am Mar 1, 2017 9:17am
Today's EJ EG GC
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  • #28,439
  • Edited 11:24am Mar 1, 2017 9:20am | Edited 11:24am
Quoting LuckyMind
Good, that its demo... {image} {image}
Again the zone from yesterday formed and PA was still contained within. There was no clear break of the H and shitty sideways PA after so no trade. LO was the bar that completed the 2BR which seems OK but when you look at the fact that the bar before LO was on higher volume and also we had the even higher volume overnight during Asia (which is where the post-LO PA stopped before moving back to yesterday's zone L - check out the rejection at 50% of what was today's highest volume zone). Also if we want to use LO as the zone for today again we need to wait for the zone to show us who is controlling it.

When I said that I use LO zone that is because most of the time that is the highest volume zone for that day at that point. However, if we see volume overnight that was abnormally high we can't ignore it.

I have said many times before that a zone shouldn't be traded until we know who controls it.

A ND or test or 2BR into a level of a zone which we haven't taken out the H or the L yes is worthless (unless you're scalping the zone - very advanced) and risky as we have no idea who controls the zone.

Patience. Not every signal is worth taking. We need to wait for the set-ups to be right.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,440
  • Mar 1, 2017 10:14pm Mar 1, 2017 10:14pm
Quoting LuckyMind
Good, that its demo...

start trading trends, try using moving averages or oscillators as supplementary for added confirmation.

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The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
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