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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,021
  • Feb 26, 2017 5:38am Feb 26, 2017 5:38am
  •  turnfx
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Only money management is the key of | 334 Posts
yes talking about news my account was 1000$ now practicing in demo ...

i am still confusing about scout lot size , often i use 1.0 or 2.0 for scout
now i start to use SL because rescuing the scout is not suitable to me can you plz guide me that which is the better option SL or rescue
  • #57,022
  • Feb 26, 2017 6:14am Feb 26, 2017 6:14am
Quoting turnfx
yes talking about news my account was 1000$ now practicing in demo ... i am still confusing about scout lot size , often i use 1.0 or 2.0 for scout now i start to use SL because rescuing the scout is not suitable to me can you plz guide me that which is the better option SL or rescue
Hi turnfx

not wishing to sound harsh but i think you need to re-read the first 200 pages and try to get a better understanding of what is there.

a small part taken from those pages...

the WW loss/recovery table..

The concept is as the following table

% Loss intial capital % profit required to Recover
5----------------------5.3
10----------------------11.1
15----------------------17.6
20-----------------------25
25----------------------33.3
30----------------------42.9
35----------------------53.8
40----------------------66.7
45----------------------81.8
50----------------------100
55----------------------122
60----------------------150
65----------------------186
70-----------------------233
75------------------300
80------------------400
85------------------567
90------------------900

The % gain required to to come back to balance (break even) will increase gemetrically with your losses.
if you loss 20% of your capital. you will have to make 25% to come back to breakeven.
However if you lose 50% of your capital, you have to make 100% to come back to break even.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,023
  • Edited 7:26am Feb 26, 2017 7:15am | Edited 7:26am
Quoting turnfx
yes talking about news my account was 1000$ now practicing in demo ... i am still confusing about scout lot size , often i use 1.0 or 2.0 for scout now i start to use SL because rescuing the scout is not suitable to me can you plz guide me that which is the better option SL or rescue
we try to be squared when there is news release, so you might be trying to rescue against news, which is what we do not do here.

anyway need to know if you are talking about a mini account, standard account or micro account, as their lot sizing is different.
standard 1lot is 100000 units, mini is 10000, while micro is 1000. so seems like you are trading 1.0 lot in a mini account, which is 0.1 for a standard account, as your explorer showed 1pip gain = $1.

if your account is a mini account with 200x leverage, you have 20units if your scout is mini lot, or 10k units.
im personally not sure if that is the right size(my opinion is that the scout size abit big if your skew is larger, but is ok if your skew is smaller), because im using 5k units as my scout lot size(half of your scout size), with the same account size. but the way i use the mm differ abit from here so, the core is similar, but i use the golden ratio directly rather than the fibo numbers for skew.

just keep in mind, we try to be squared during news release, so if you try to rescue against news, your pretty much on your own.

as for mm, that is really for you to try out, since individual trading style will affect the mm they use.

i think part of your confusion is that you don't know when you cut or when to cut and flip. you might want to work on that.
  • #57,024
  • Feb 26, 2017 8:02am Feb 26, 2017 8:02am
Quoting turnfx
yes talking about news my account was 1000$ now practicing in demo ... i am still confusing about scout lot size , often i use 1.0 or 2.0 for scout now i start to use SL because rescuing the scout is not suitable to me can you plz guide me that which is the better option SL or rescue
why are you in a gun battle with only a knife? Did you realize that this is a game of who has the bigger muscle?

Did you also realize that if your trading account is 1000$ with 200 leverage, you should have $200k - $1k = $199k capital deposited with a safe financial institution to earn bank interest and to keep it out of reach of your broker in case he goes burst.

trading on high leverage with no capital backing is not at your level of capability yet.

you can't make a phone call with 9 cents if it cost 10 cents to make one.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #57,025
  • Feb 26, 2017 8:15am Feb 26, 2017 8:15am
Quoting turnfx
yes talking about news my account was 1000$ now practicing in demo ... i am still confusing about scout lot size , often i use 1.0 or 2.0 for scout now i start to use SL because rescuing the scout is not suitable to me can you plz guide me that which is the better option SL or rescue
Sometimes taking out your scout as he is in wrong position means taking small loss and getting in again later in better circumstance starting from (1st 1 is the dead scout) 1 2 3 ....or whatever nos momentum and circs provide. I have taken out 2 scouts in too early at a loss and got in again from base (2) 2 4....(1st 2 is my dead scouts) - FTI once told me how to do this so I have used it - I am still clumsy tho.

This is not a simple approach and takes lots of hard work and study. There are lots of options. AOW in depth study is vital - IMO. Make sure you understood every word FTI said in 1st 200 pages.

Posting your charts with examples would be good for folks to comment on when it went so wrong.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,026
  • Edited 1:46am Feb 27, 2017 1:08am | Edited 1:46am
Quoting turnfx
yes talking about news my account was 1000$ now practicing in demo ... i am still confusing about scout lot size , often i use 1.0 or 2.0 for scout now i start to use SL because rescuing the scout is not suitable to me can you plz guide me that which is the better option SL or rescue
Hello Turnfx,

I forced myself to resurface after reading your further posts. Your friends have been trying to be of help. If you are looking for any value within TAF, please do your homework, read the Thread. You will see the SL/Rescue point there. And on Patience. Look at your self in a mirror. Did you find the SL issue within the first 100 pages?

However, to your exact question: What I would do. I would open two accounts and try playing both SL and Rescue simultaneously. Since it requires a focus anyway, play just with one the same currency pair (it's about opening the same postion on a chosen pair according with your PA reading) : SL on one, Rescuing on the second. So that to compare your ability and results in 6 - 7 months. I would make so on Live accounts only. The smallest possible account and sizes as a training fee.

There is a danger to survive either with SL or Rescuing.

As for you, it is your Risk and your Skills, Ability. You might play on Demo. But that will not affect your Pain Threshold nor your Balls potency (remember - about steel balls for Attacks and Rescues).

Although, please think once more, you might already be overexposed by trade sizes, inattentive whether you in fact have read the thread and rather impatient. Forex spot trading requires a high risk business approach, it is not a theoretical playing nor gambling. And everything is up to YOU.

Are you ready for a years long marathon (learning, practising, learning, practising...)?

I'm sorry if my words look too rude. It is my answer to your exact question.

Wishing to succeed in your challenges, and rediving,

Best regards, Exnav

P.S. SL here: manual squaring positions.
P.S. No. 2. Please read my post at least twice with at least 15 minutes interval before making any judgement. That's just my advice how to digest data, how I would approach. You might see differences in your own reaction after the first glance.

Good luck!
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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,027
  • Edited 4:46am Feb 27, 2017 4:35am | Edited 4:46am
Quoting turnfx
yes talking about news my account was 1000$ now practicing in demo ... i am still confusing about scout lot size , often i use 1.0 or 2.0 for scout now i start to use SL because rescuing the scout is not suitable to me can you plz guide me that which is the better option SL or rescue
you might want to try out using 1000 units as scout, which is 10x smaller than 10000 units as scout, and limit risk to 1% account as loss threshold and work from here. with 1000 units as scout, you should be able to last 100 pips draw down before your loss threshold of 1%, which is $10 for a 1000 account.

another thing is you might want to also use real money, but a really small amount like maybe 500 or less, just to get a feel of what trading real cash is like, because demo might not be real money, and you might not get the same feel as real cash, with real cash you are more likely yo trade much more conservatively than demo, which you might try to be as aggressive as possible.

so 1 skew that fti has mentioned for starters learning this mo, is to use the 1 1 1, and go from there, mainly to get the feel and dancing lesson right first.
  • #57,028
  • Edited 1:23pm Feb 27, 2017 12:57pm | Edited 1:23pm
https://video.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t42.179...f7&oe=58B493EB

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  • #57,029
  • Edited 1:54pm Feb 27, 2017 1:29pm | Edited 1:54pm
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https://video-sin6-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/...6c&oe=58B4B6C4
  • #57,030
  • Edited 5:12pm Feb 27, 2017 2:03pm | Edited 5:12pm
hahaha treasury robbery by any name is still.....hoodrobin meh..... eeeer where the marshalls?
yo hoho and a bottle of rub? ah hoi, blue black already.

http://www.infowars.com/exclusive-ob...und-obamacare/

regards
  • #57,031
  • Feb 28, 2017 4:36am Feb 28, 2017 4:36am
Guys, some questions regarding market structure just pop up in my little mind, let us do some brainstorming, I believe everyone will have a deeper understanding after this.


Ok here it goes, fti mentioned before that there are many price in the market, as buyers and sellers are at every different price level, and the price we see on the screen is the possible average. So from my understanding, the MM calculate the paper order with him, the volume weighted average price of all the buyers and VWAP of all the sellers. For example if VWAP of all the buy orders is 3 and VWAP of all sell orders is 7, the quote will probably be in the middle 4.9-5.1 ,so if customers order hitting him is within his book limit, he will shade against his customers, trying to offload at a profit and also filling paper orders with him. OK this lead me to the next understanding.

So if he suddenly receive a sell stop or sell limit that is below the current VWAP price of all sell orders, even though no body is hitting the bid, the price can still go down as MM is trying to readjust the price to the middle, so what happen if someone enter a sell market order with MM first and then ask different parties to submit sell limit/ stop orders which are bigger than MM can stomach, and then wait for MM to readjust the price, then subsequently tp his sell order and cancel all the sell limit/stop order. will this kind of manipulation occur?

Ok fti tell us to observe the terrain, which include the pulse behavior. So if It is pulsing strongly, which means that there are either market order or stop order entering that skew the VWAP of either side too near, base on the strength of the pulse, we know how large the order are as MM has to avoid risk and have to shade away fast. So If there are no pulse, or only weak pulse all day, that means there are no strong bias on that day, and that day is purely MM game as all orders are within his stomach limit and he can shade anywhere he want. So there will be many false break, and it is safer to fade the move after break? of course I am not trying to be rigid, just want to figure out which strategy to implement for different market condition.


Hope I am not too off track or I will slap myself, Thank you!
  • #57,032
  • Feb 28, 2017 6:28am Feb 28, 2017 6:28am
Quoting GoldenFinger
Guys, some questions regarding market structure just pop up in my little mind, let us do some brainstorming, I believe everyone will have a deeper understanding after this. Ok here it goes, fti mentioned before that there are many price in the market, as buyers and sellers are at every different price level, and the price we see on the screen is the possible average. So from my understanding, the MM calculate the paper order with him, the volume weighted average price of all the buyers and VWAP of all the sellers. For example if VWAP of all the...
hi, the first question you mentioned if you are managing funds and advicing someone else to hit the market maker after you hit it, is front running. it is illegal.

anyway just for your knowledge, how pump and dump is done, what manipulators do is that they buy up all the shares, and advice other people to go buy those shared higher and hype it up, when it is hyped up, since they know its the true value, they sell off and possibly distribute it to sell the way down and take profits down wards on both the up wave and down wave too. but it is illegal if you do that, watch wolf of wall street.
  • #57,033
  • Feb 28, 2017 6:32am Feb 28, 2017 6:32am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi, the first question you mentioned if you are managing funds and advicing someone else to hit the market maker after you hit it, is front running. it is illegal.

Hi I believe u misunderstood, Not hit the MM, just submit pending orders to influence the average quote....
  • #57,034
  • Feb 28, 2017 6:36am Feb 28, 2017 6:36am
Quoting GoldenFinger
{quote} Hi I believe u misunderstood, Not hit the MM, just submit pending orders to influence the average quote....
that would be called flashing the bid, im not sure if this is illegal or not, since hfts do employ such moves. there is alot of controversy if it should be illegal or not, but i have no idea since there is no one in the regulatory authorities who would give a straight answer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_trading
  • #57,035
  • Edited 11:23am Feb 28, 2017 11:04am | Edited 11:23am
Quoting GoldenFinger
{quote} Hi I believe u misunderstood, Not hit the MM, just submit pending orders to influence the average quote....
market manipulating has a price to pay.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/comp...nny-stock-case

regards
  • #57,036
  • Feb 28, 2017 11:24am Feb 28, 2017 11:24am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoofing_(finance) i think he got this in mind
  • #57,037
  • Mar 1, 2017 8:58am Mar 1, 2017 8:58am
Quoting GoldenFinger
Guys, some questions regarding market structure just pop up in my little mind, let us do some brainstorming, I believe everyone will have a deeper understanding after this. Ok here it goes, fti mentioned before that there are many price in the market, as buyers and sellers are at every different price level, and the price we see on the screen is the possible average. So from my understanding, the MM calculate the paper order with him, the volume weighted average price of all the buyers and VWAP of all the sellers. For example if VWAP of all the...
hi Goldenfinger,

your display picture reminds me of CaptainJack from the stevehopwood forex forum.

Regarding your disscussion subject, it has been discussed at length in this forum. It has also been covered in the nick leeson's book - The Rouge Trader and the movie, the reminsence of stock operator has also discussed it at length. the form may be different, but the substance is same. For strategy to deal with the market, you should reference the 3 AOW lesson on thread. for further enlightenment, you should reference the AOW full text.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #57,038
  • Mar 1, 2017 9:43am Mar 1, 2017 9:43am
pass by.........
finally done read some of the post here.
  • #57,039
  • Edited 1:08pm Mar 1, 2017 12:45pm | Edited 1:08pm
Hi ALL

Hope you guys been well.
I was browsing around here, and then onto the trade explorer page lo and behold, there is one LIVE account trading 300.00 lots long on the eur/usd. Have anyone seen such a big lot around here before? I am quite sure, this is the first time I seen one that large, and it is a private account. So unable to see his name. But wow, 300.00 lots.. 1 lot - $10, 300 lot = $3,000 per pip ... Wonder what is his/her entry and cap size

Regards

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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or is that.. FTI .. hunting his ducks or crocs ?
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,040
  • Mar 2, 2017 9:08am Mar 2, 2017 9:08am
Hi Ray! i never saw that large trader here, i wonder if those stats can be manipulated some how? anyway must have diamond balls to play that size 10pip swing makes or takes 30 000$
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