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Most traders fail because of no discipline!

  • #941
  • Feb 26, 2017 8:40am Feb 26, 2017 8:40am
Quoting tunera
I think that traders fails for various reasons. First, it is absolutely true that 99.9% of fx retail traders fail in the long run. The reasons are : 1- no money 99.99% of traders don't have any capital to invest, a few hundred dollars or a few thousand are not enough for trading.

Professional traders too have a lot of capital, and they still lack education and lose in the long term. However they trade clients money, and new clients always come so.. To them doesn't matter if they win or lose, as long as new clients (money) come, they keep earning...
I've seen and know 2 guys and 1 group. Real money.

The 2 guys were trading stocks, from 2014-2016. They traded with 100K and 500K.
One lost 15% and the boss of the fund kicked him out.
The other is a private trader who still faces a 40% drawdown because he went all-in (in one stock).

And a group of 3 traders was trading FX with dukascopy during 2011, with 600K.
When they lost 20%, clients pulled the plug.

They all had enough money but they couldn't make a dime.

They were trading like noobs, it's unbelievable.
  • #942
  • Feb 26, 2017 8:52am Feb 26, 2017 8:52am
Quoting marcof91
{quote} Please tell me,where in the hell you arranged those statistics.
I was not looking to offend anybody or discourage anybody, i hope i didn't!

Where I arranged those statistics, i am in the game from 2005, and i talked to and met a lot of traders in the years, most of them stay in the game for a few years then disappear (give up).

Only a few "survive", 0.01% seems like a correct estimate to me.


Again my number is referred to a very long-term timespan, basically it goes like this:

A few weeks: 50% are successful
A few months: 30% are successful
A year: 10% are successful
5 years: 1% is successful
10years+: 0.01% is successful

Like a popular blog say: "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero" (cit.)


But it's ok let's just enjoy the present moment, statistics are meaningless anyway.
  • #943
  • Feb 26, 2017 9:41am Feb 26, 2017 9:41am
Quoting tunera
{quote}Like a popular blog say: "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero" (cit.) But it's ok let's just enjoy the present moment, statistics are meaningless anyway.
That's something we both can agree on.
But i disagree with the quote : "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero".
Simply explaining this with another quote: "Be brave. Take risks. Nothing can substitute experience."
Experience is everything.
Experience makes you a master.
Master is the one who failed many times and learned from those fails,so now he can avoid it.
You are left alone in a jungle.
As time goes on and you are still alive,the more experience you will get. Thus, you will prevail because you know what it takes to survive.
Time = Life
Experience = Knowledge
Work smarter,not harder
  • #944
  • Feb 26, 2017 9:46am Feb 26, 2017 9:46am
Lots of false statistical exaggeration on this thread.Hmn
  • #945
  • Feb 26, 2017 10:36am Feb 26, 2017 10:36am
Quoting marcof91
{quote} That's something we both can agree on. But i disagree with the quote : "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero". Simply explaining this with another quote: "Be brave. Take risks. Nothing can substitute experience." Experience is everything. Experience makes you a master. Master is the one who failed many times and learned from those fails,so now he can avoid it. You are left alone in a jungle. As time goes on and you are still alive,the more experience you will get. Thus, you will prevail because you know...
depends. i have seen smart people , good in math who did learn all extrem faster, and many people not so good in math, that could not get behind the deeper inside of this game. forex is much more complex then stock market.

if you are not so good in math, you start doing stupid decisions, or calculate things wrong, underestimate the risks, overleverage, dont plan longterm, play with emotions,......... it is also possible to read about so many things, but when you are smart enough in math to calculate all for your own, you believe in the experience from other very fast (because any mistake is possible to calculate by math very simple) and dont have to do same mistakes other did allready and warned. if you dont believe you need to make the mistakes by your own to learn it the hard way and you need some years more to learn all are you will give up. trading is not this complex, same like playing poker, but people tend to make it very complicated. when i teached someone basics, they allways told me why they did it this complicated so many years.

so you dont need to fail many times to be a master, you can also do it the easy way by dont do the mistakes other did. but thats not so easy for most in trading forex. it saves you many many years and much money to learn from the experience from others and calculate this correctly by your own.
  • #946
  • Edited 5:03pm Feb 26, 2017 11:43am | Edited 5:03pm
  •  hak444
  • | Joined Aug 2016 | Status: knowing is not enough,we must apply | 41 Posts
@tunera.... buddy your contradicting yourself....1st you said 99.9% fail in this business, now you quote "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero". Which i think means that not even 0.01% is making money.

If not a single person is making money then where is the loser's money going??? as it is said this business is zero sum or negative sum.

And quite frankly if you really believe this quote as the truth then surely you will fail in this business. (just my opinion)
Why? because you have already made your mind that no one is making money so if you fail there is nothing to worry and no need to change anything (your system, mind set etc).
I can accept failure but i can't accept not trying. (Michael Jordan)
  • #947
  • Mar 1, 2017 8:40am Mar 1, 2017 8:40am
Quoting hanover
FWIW, some thoughts on using multipliers..
I do multiply only the losers and not every time. It has to fit certain criteria for a trade to get multiplied. Depending on the movement, I can usually endure up to 50-60 directional flips (before start shitting in my pants), but not this time, sadly.

Now at 10% account gain. Due to mistakes, technical and lack of quality thinking at my end, I allowed the DD to grow to the unacceptable -43%. Will not repeat. Maybe other mistakes I will make, but not these I already did which increased the DD. I should have had below -15% of DD. Unfortunately, as of now, my stupidity is 4-5 laps ahead (in lead) of my common sense.

My plan for Mar17 is go make 40% to up to 120% account increase with a high water mark DD (absolute DD) of no more than -15%. The max DD can also be around -15%, but if the plan goes as planned, that max DD will suck it up from the profits generated, not from the base capital. Lets see, if this is doable.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #948
  • Mar 1, 2017 10:57am Mar 1, 2017 10:57am
Quoting MoneyZilla
I do multiply only the losers and not every time.
.....
My plan for Mar17 is go make 40% to up to 120% account increase with a high water mark DD (absolute DD) of no more than -15%. The max DD can also be around -15%, but if the plan goes as planned, that max DD will suck it up from the profits generated, not from the base capital. Lets see, if this is doable.
Your philosophy is different to mine (e.g. I try to focus on the market, and the process, rather than monetary targets), but fair enough.

Good luck, I hope that you achieve your goal.
  • #949
  • Mar 1, 2017 2:38pm Mar 1, 2017 2:38pm
  •  hak444
  • | Joined Aug 2016 | Status: knowing is not enough,we must apply | 41 Posts
Quoting hanover
{quote} I try to focus on the market(conditions), and the process(of trading), rather than monetary targets
For me that's the secret of success ....
I can accept failure but i can't accept not trying. (Michael Jordan)
  • #950
  • Mar 1, 2017 3:01pm Mar 1, 2017 3:01pm
Personally i think most traders fail because they focus on the wrong things such as exclusively focusing on technicals
  • #951
  • Edited 2:56pm Mar 2, 2017 12:21am | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting EcoTrader
Personally i think most traders fail because they focus on the wrong things such as exclusively focusing on technicals
@anybody who's interested:

The FX fund manager that I employ uses indicator-based TA, along with some discretion and sensible risk management.

I know two highly successful traders who also manage funds, and whose analysis predominantly involves fundamentals. One was ranked the second best FX trader in the world by the Barclays Hedge Index between 2008-2013. He was also a mentor to me for almost 2 years.

There are other profitable traders who use their understanding of how and why price moves, market microstructure, and orderflow around key levels. Others use currency strength/weakness analysis which is ultimately derived from price. Still others gain an edge from statistical price-based exits. If we want to be pedantic, anything that involves price and time, or chart-based analysis, can be defined as TA.

Bottom line is that it's possible to successfully use any proven tools -- whether fundamental, technical or statistical -- backed by prudent risk management and consistent execution. Ultimately it comes down to putting in enough study to gain the knowledge and experience needed to find a strategic 'edge', and then being savvy enough to find markets that the 'edge' can exploit profitably, and/or adapt itself smoothly to any changing market conditions.

The naysayers insist that systematic profit can't be achieved over the longer term. I care little for their opinions, for unlike them, I have seen evidence to the contrary.
  • #952
  • Mar 2, 2017 2:18am Mar 2, 2017 2:18am
Quoting hanover
{quote} @anybody who's interested: The FX fund manager that I employ uses indicator-based TA, along with some discretion and sensible risk management. I know two highly successful traders who also manage funds, and whose analysis predominantly involves fundamentals. One was ranked the second best FX trader in the world by the Barclays Hedge Index between 2008-2013. He was also a mentor to me for almost 2 years. There are other profitable traders who use their understanding of how and...
there are many with this results, if they trade very conservative. and same time 100 times more people who will lose to compensate this wins and commissions and spreads.
  • #953
  • Mar 2, 2017 2:55am Mar 2, 2017 2:55am
Quoting hanover
{quote} @anybody who's interested: The FX fund manager that I employ uses indicator-based TA, along with some discretion and sensible risk management. I know two highly successful traders who also manage funds, and whose analysis predominantly involves fundamentals. One was ranked the second best FX trader in the world by the Barclays Hedge Index between 2008-2013. He was also a mentor to me for almost 2 years. There are other profitable traders who use their understanding of how and...
you are referring to Jarret Davis

but since you mentioned pedantic, i have yet to see evidence of a trader over the long term making money off nothing but technical analysis. Feel free to prove me wrong if you like and if you do i will be humble and accept i am wrong. It is easy to state things but not so easy to back them up and as you know the internet is full of fluff and fluff producing people.
  • #954
  • Edited 6:47am Mar 2, 2017 6:19am | Edited 6:47am
Quoting EcoTrader
you are referring to Jarret Davis but since you mentioned pedantic, i have yet to see evidence of a trader over the long term making money off nothing but technical analysis.
Jarratt Davis trades mainly using fundamental analysis, as his commentary on Forex Peace Army and YouTube videos demonstrate.

Whereas the fund manager I mentioned uses only technical indicators. I know this because I was involved in providing software support for him and his business partner back in 2014 (IT was my career for 25 years). Between Nov 2014 and Dec 2016 he has managed a small part of my investment portfolio, and every single one of those 26 months was profitable, as the statements in the linked post illustrate. I agree 100% that the internet is full of fluff, which is why I attempt to support any claims that I make with hard evidence.

Tom Dante is another well known technical trader whom I assume is profitable (I don't have statements to prove it). He spent several years as a prop trader, as he states in his interview here. His trading is based predominantly around swing failure patterns and key S/R levels, as his coaching videos demonstrate (warning: he swears a lot!)

I know a couple of other traders who have been profitable for several years using (mainly) TA. However, I can't supply evidence without their cooperation.
Anyway, I don't wish to argue, it makes no difference to me if people choose to disbelieve.
  • #955
  • Mar 2, 2017 6:29am Mar 2, 2017 6:29am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Jarratt Davis trades mainly using fundamental analysis, as his commentary on Forex Peace Army and YouTube videos demonstrate. Whereas the fund manager I mentioned uses only technical indicators. I know this because I was involved in providing software support for him and his business partner back in 2014 (IT was my career for 25 years). Between Nov 2014 and Dec 2016 he has managed...
I was referring to Jarret Davis as your mentor and not the technical trader you mentioned since he claims to have held that 2nd spot between 2008 and 2013. It's not that i don't believe it's more a case i have yet to see any evidence of it that is rock solid. I have seen so many people altering or mocking up statements that it has become impossible to take any of it seriously. For the record i am not trying to argue with you just discussing based on my experience of it.
  • #956
  • Edited 2:37pm Mar 2, 2017 6:45am | Edited 2:37pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} you are referring to Jarret Davis but since you mentioned pedantic, i have yet to see evidence of a trader over the long term making money off nothing but technical analysis. Feel free to prove me wrong if you like and if you do i will be humble and accept i am wrong. It is easy to state things but not so easy to back them up and as you know the internet is full of fluff and fluff producing people.
Crumbs. There is a whole community of fund managers who are fully systematic and trade nothing but TA under a diversified portfolio across a wide range of asset classes. For example here is a extracted list of CTA's operating at least since 2000 who are purely technical trend followers (no FA), 100% systematic, and trade across a diversified portfolio of which currency futures or forex represent a portion of their portfolio. The CAROR indicates their average annual rate of return over the entire 17 year period.

There is also a whole class of successful Global MACRO funds that operate purely off FA.

It is not the technique itself (technical, statistical, FA etc.)which is the undoing of the retail trader as it is quite clear in the professional investment space that all are valid approaches. It is the demands placed by the retail trader on trying to squeeze too much return from a market that only delivers a limited amount of Alpha, being undercapitalised, not trading/investing systematically, not investing heavily in R&D or education, and putting all their eggs into one basket such as a singular instrument, or a singular strategy, being simply inexperienced etc. One very common aspect in the professional space is diversification through a portfolio approach.....but do you hear this being discussed much on this forum?

Have a look at the audited returns of the professional fund managers and then figure out what is common to all of the successful FM's....and then ask yourself......what are the missing elements in the retail space? It might just help you on your path.

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Just have a look for example at Dreiss Research Corporation for example.

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or FORT LP

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  • #957
  • Mar 2, 2017 7:06am Mar 2, 2017 7:06am
Quoting Copernicus
The CAROR indicates their average anual rate of return over the entire 17 year period.
Some decent returns there...... at least by my humble standards. Especially given the nature of their trading.

But of course many of the FF whizz kids are going to be unimpressed by 15% p.a. returns, as their own grid/martingales continue to churn out something like 50% monthly. And I recently saw a thread where some folk were saying they couldn't operate with anything less than 200:1 leverage. Phew!
  • #958
  • Mar 2, 2017 7:24am Mar 2, 2017 7:24am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Some decent returns there...... at least by my humble standards. Especially given the nature of their trading. But of course many of the FF whizz kids are going to be unimpressed by 15% p.a. returns, as their own grid/martingales continue to churn out something like 50% monthly. And I recently saw a thread where some folk were saying they couldn't operate with anything less than 200:1 leverage. Phew!
Yep. I couldn't agree more H. :-)

BTW the Gross investment returns are a bit better. Add on another 3-4% or so to compare against the Gross returns of a retail trader, as the returns in the performance table are the returns to the investor after fees (NAV).
  • #959
  • Mar 2, 2017 7:25am Mar 2, 2017 7:25am
Thanks for sharing - interesting for sure
  • #960
  • Mar 2, 2017 2:51pm Mar 2, 2017 2:51pm
Quoting EcoTrader
I was referring to Jarret Davis as your mentor and not the technical trader you mentioned since he claims to have held that 2nd spot between 2008 and 2013.
Fair enough. I'm skeptical by nature, and I signed up on Barclay Hedge Fund's website to see for myself, as part of my due diligence process before paying the mentorship fee. You can likewise check if you wish.
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