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The Swamp

  • #11,161
  • Feb 24, 2017 7:07am Feb 24, 2017 7:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the shorter term at the point is probably 100.5 minimal. (100.5/99.25) but i still hold out for the one posted days back at 97.x 96.x as being a normal minimal retrace on its own tf. 96.xxx is the upper part of it.. so it may not hold. eventually a bounce to 121.45 may be in it. usually not a GOP/usd characteristic. so 121.45 may be on the back burner for 4+ years. if so, the retrace to 97.x or 96.x may need to go deeper. one can argue we don't have the usual GOP in office. shit happens things change. going by the past charts is not always...
getting close to 100.5.. it may cause some bounce.. i am still holding out for 97.x or 96.x or less.
if for one reason or another. Pence becomes our new leader, the past indication should gain ground. simply because it would be less a wildcard on policy (more toward past gop policy).
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,162
  • Feb 24, 2017 7:19am Feb 24, 2017 7:19am
st usd hung up on the week close at 100.75.. get some 1h than 4h ect. closes below. and it should move some lower. atm low 100.69, w/o a h close below 100.75. some st support probably till it starts closing below. last h close the lowest of the day at 100.76
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,163
  • Feb 24, 2017 7:26am Feb 24, 2017 7:26am
she is trying..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,164
  • Feb 24, 2017 8:34am Feb 24, 2017 8:34am
Quoting gatorinla
st usd hung up on the week close at 100.75.. get some 1h than 4h ect. closes below. and it should move some lower. atm low 100.69, w/o a h close below 100.75. some st support probably till it starts closing below. last h close the lowest of the day at 100.76
st bounced it near week close. .. but even st 100.5 has the attraction is my guess. 1h closed below 100.75.. it didn't hold. at least the first time... its Friday, so it may try again. bears goal is the week close below 100.75. bulls + 100.75.. attraction to 100.50 with week at 100.75 places 101.00 an equal distance as 100.5 from 100.75.. 25 pip bounce on either side may be consolidation. . std.. later
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,165
  • Feb 24, 2017 8:56am Feb 24, 2017 8:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} st bounced it near week close. .. but even st 100.5 has the attraction is my guess. 1h closed below 100.75.. it didn't hold. at least the first time... its Friday, so it may try again. bears goal is the week close below 100.75. bulls + 100.75.. attraction to 100.50 with week at 100.75 places 101.00 an equal distance as 100.5 from 100.75.. 25 pip bounce on either side may be consolidation. . std.. later {image}
That consolidation lines up nice with 580-610 eu. Or wider 550-630. It will be interesting to see which side it breaks to.
  • #11,166
  • Feb 24, 2017 11:12am Feb 24, 2017 11:12am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} That consolidation lines up nice with 580-610 eu. Or wider 550-630. It will be interesting to see which side it breaks to.
still below 101.52.. 100.75 may be the next rung s/r, at least today. cluster wise 100.92 week bulls want to close above. if above 100.75 but below 100.92 its still ify.
using the 96.x 97.x attraction off 101.52 norm touched holding atm .. also using 1086 eu,, and gu having no norm retrace yet. add in uj completing a norm with the still 68.xx attraction. usd/cad still has its norm retrace lower also.. but its a big turn with several "ifs" its may take a while.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,167
  • Feb 24, 2017 2:04pm Feb 24, 2017 2:04pm
Uj last minute surprise... broke 112.00. Looking for bids if squeezes any. Hope for a little bit lower.
  • #11,168
  • Edited 4:36pm Feb 26, 2017 12:14pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still expect usd to weaken 97.xx/96.xx before 121.45 rise.
Hi Gator.

89.54 is needed before 121.45?

Or are you referring to some other really old swing (my chart has data only until 1986)?
  • #11,169
  • Feb 26, 2017 8:23pm Feb 26, 2017 8:23pm
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Hi Gator. 89.54 is needed before 121.45? Or are you referring to some other really old swing (my chart has data only until 1986)?
sure, also on a week chart 97.xx or 96.xx.. last month looked tired. tues we get a new closed candle. 121.45 was missed, and atm so is 89.5xx.. since 121.x retrace did miss 121.45 by a few handfuls of pips. i am anticipating 101.52 having a play.... this after 121.45 was missed. last month's candle has so far rejected bull. its either going to 96.xx 97.xxx or even 89.5.. or 121.45.. the precise order is unknown. the u.s. government atm is set to lower taxes while increasing spending. although its a tossup with interest rates so low and on bottom. lowering taxes while increasing spending in the past charts has weakened the usd since the 1980ties. i may be early. and the interest may skew me some. even though i would expect 121.45 being in play. the current situation plus those other retraceable norms are open
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  • #11,170
  • Feb 26, 2017 8:35pm Feb 26, 2017 8:35pm
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Hi Gator. 89.54 is needed before 121.45? Or are you referring to some other really old swing (my chart has data only until 1986)?
121.45 may have to wait 4+ years. things need to develop..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,171
  • Feb 26, 2017 8:53pm Feb 26, 2017 8:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
copper likely heads to 3.28.. but if one has a drop to 2.333 before, it may be worth buying. {image}
no 2.33 drop yet on copper.. its retraced 1/2 the day candle. unlikely, but it has happened before. if copper drops, while usd drops, and uj drops. it could be a equity correction signal. i still have a norm on copper 2.33 or less.. while uj hasn't reached that 1000ish pip retrace from 118.xx yet. uj also has a valid 68.xx target.. all this still opposite of most of the Goldman etc gurus. std.. later
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,172
  • Feb 26, 2017 9:58pm Feb 26, 2017 9:58pm
Good Morning !

Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #11,173
  • Feb 27, 2017 1:30am Feb 27, 2017 1:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 121.45 may have to wait 4+ years. things need to develop.. {image}
Thanks. My chart did not have the top at Feb/1985, so I only saw 121.45 as target of the bullish swing, but not as a norm.

Although the attraction to 108.55, 121.45 comes from the larger time-frames, it should be possible 97.8x, 96.9x, 95.5x (or even 89.5x) to be visited first, without breaking the normal PA
  • #11,174
  • Edited 8:39am Feb 27, 2017 3:59am | Edited 8:39am
Pending SHORT
S/O
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #11,175
  • Feb 27, 2017 6:48am Feb 27, 2017 6:48am
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Thanks. My chart did not have the top at Feb/1985, so I only saw 121.45 as target of the bullish swing, but not as a norm. Although the attraction to 108.55, 121.45 comes from the larger time-frames, it should be possible 97.8x, 96.9x, 95.5x (or even 89.5x) to be visited first, without breaking the normal PA
i said i may be early. on the day chart its a much smaller scale of what i am trying to fit clues. i was using that rejection pa after it missed 121.45. if or when that day smaller db breaks. the 101.52 may come back in play. even if breaking the db is bearish. a bounce sometime after break, may be better R/R for the short. i can anticipate 101.52or higher then. its undeveloped atm. a more conservative approach would be to wait for the db to break (DB on chart. followed by the bounce sometime after to 101.52 or more). i may do that also, but have some ponies atm for the attraction at 97.xx or 96.xxx or 87.xxx .. i can fill the boat again later, on a 101.5x bounce. then after the 2X stretch or more that may take 4 years. it may be ready to resume 121.4 again after.
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  • #11,176
  • Feb 27, 2017 8:45am Feb 27, 2017 8:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still below 101.52.. 100.75 may be the next rung s/r, at least today. cluster wise 100.92 week bulls want to close above. if above 100.75 but below 100.92 its still ify. using the 96.x 97.x attraction off 101.52 norm touched holding atm .. also using 1086 eu,, and gu having no norm retrace yet. add in uj completing a norm with the still 68.xx attraction. usd/cad still has its norm retrace lower also.. but its a big turn with several "ifs" its may take a while.
reset these for the month ending soon. 100.75 less import than last week. 100.5 area. may still be bounceable. its just at some point if correct about 97.x 96.x. the bounce may not work. the second test of 100.5 could be in the works.. its a good time to do it with months end soon.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,177
  • Feb 27, 2017 9:05am Feb 27, 2017 9:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 121.45 may have to wait 4+ years. things need to develop.. {image}
Dollar to be toilet paper in the next few decades ?
  • #11,178
  • Feb 27, 2017 9:21am Feb 27, 2017 9:21am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Dollar to be toilet paper in the next few decades ?
They all pretty much are already to be honest...
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #11,179
  • Feb 27, 2017 9:30am Feb 27, 2017 9:30am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Dollar to be toilet paper in the next few decades ?
Larger chart,... (from schick.)
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  • #11,180
  • Feb 27, 2017 9:37am Feb 27, 2017 9:37am
Quoting JustAndy
{quote} They all pretty much are already to be honest...
They aren't very comfy, specially Loonie and Aussie.
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