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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,001
  • Feb 21, 2017 10:36pm Feb 21, 2017 10:36pm
Hello everyone,
I've read this thread up to page 250 3 times now. The first time I read I was super excited and just started throwing random trades in all the crosses like an idiot and tried to rescue all of them. When I couldn't rescue and blew half of my account I thought this method was a failure (obviously it was me). Anyways, I came back 5 months later and reread the beginning of this thread 2 more times and it finally clicked. Currently I have been demoing the futures market, specifically NQ as I like to only focus on 1 instrument. Does anyone have experience or advice using this technique on the futures market?
-Dan
  • #57,002
  • Feb 22, 2017 2:17am Feb 22, 2017 2:17am
Quoting fti
ou{quote} ancient old chinese thingy. honourable follow unto the end. In ancient times, is believed that when head kicks bucket, a whole generation of peeps disappears. the filial piety it no more exist. i think. anyone still practise it would be deemed mad in today's environment. only romeo and juliet. maybe not mad. regards ooops but that was also ancient. anyway, its in writings, I don't really know, that time 207BC I still very liquid. probably was the law of the times. Or maybe the pen heard copied from remeo, anyway...

Thanks for the music.... will read more...

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,003
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:57am Feb 22, 2017 3:57am
Quoting kleinewaise
Hello everyone, I've read this thread up to page 250 3 times now. The first time I read I was super excited and just started throwing random trades in all the crosses like an idiot and tried to rescue all of them. When I couldn't rescue and blew half of my account I thought this method was a failure (obviously it was me). Anyways, I came back 5 months later and reread the beginning of this thread 2 more times and it finally clicked. Currently I have been demoing the futures market, specifically NQ as I like to only focus on 1 instrument. Does anyone...
Mnnn cannot help you: but did you really read every line of FTI words and fully understood each line and studied? I know I didn;t. have you studied every line of AOW and understood the meaning: I didn;t. Have you internalised what is in here: I know I haven't yet but getting there. This is lifelong study.

Good luck with your endeavours.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,004
  • Feb 22, 2017 5:33am Feb 22, 2017 5:33am
Quoting kleinewaise
Hello everyone, I've read this thread up to page 250 3 times now. The first time I read I was super excited and just started throwing random trades in all the crosses like an idiot and tried to rescue all of them. When I couldn't rescue and blew half of my account I thought this method was a failure (obviously it was me). Anyways, I came back 5 months later and reread the beginning of this thread 2 more times and it finally clicked. Currently I have been demoing the futures market, specifically NQ as I like to only focus on 1 instrument. Does anyone...
This method works for all markets, just that liquid markets are much easier as flows are much easier to assess, so if you want an advice, it would be to pick liquid markets.
  • #57,005
  • Feb 22, 2017 8:42am Feb 22, 2017 8:42am
Quoting kleinewaise
Hello everyone, I've read this thread up to page 250 3 times now. The first time I read I was super excited and just started throwing random trades in all the crosses like an idiot and tried to rescue all of them. When I couldn't rescue and blew half of my account I thought this method was a failure (obviously it was me). Anyways, I came back 5 months later and reread the beginning of this thread 2 more times and it finally clicked. Currently I have been demoing the futures market, specifically NQ as I like to only focus on 1 instrument. Does anyone...

hi kleinewaise, i see you have interest to improve. to add on to our friends advice. I will take this further and say, this forum is not showing u a technique. Beyond the technicalities of the financial market & the tools presented, it is a showing a way of life and mindset to win and achieve the things you want for yourself. this is a continuous journey as alex has pointed out.

the difficultly is in learning how to use the tool correctly and effectively in real situation and NOT reading about the tool. you will need the right mindset to wield the tool effectively. for most peeps, it takes a life time to mould mindset unless similar values have been inculcated from young. think when was the last time you rid yourself of a bad habit and how did you achieve that and when did you succumb back to it again?

this true for all endeavors in your life not just the markets.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #57,006
  • Feb 22, 2017 9:23am Feb 22, 2017 9:23am
thanks for the reply everyone. Will continue to fight, learn and do whatever it takes internalize this MO in trading and in life. Started reading the Art of War I got from an uncle that has been collecting dust on my bookshelf for 10 years now.
-Dan
  • #57,007
  • Feb 22, 2017 9:41am Feb 22, 2017 9:41am
I forgot... AND thank you very much FTI
-Dan
  • #57,008
  • Feb 22, 2017 10:13am Feb 22, 2017 10:13am
Quoting kleinewaise
thanks for the reply everyone. Will continue to fight, learn and do whatever it takes internalize this MO in trading and in life. Started reading the Art of War I got from an uncle that has been collecting dust on my bookshelf for 10 years now. -Dan
Hi Kleinewaise

here is the pdf of AoW from the thread, it will take many reads and require thinking for yourself to learn how to apply it to your trading, it is the best trading book available in my personal opinion and you will continually learn from it.

regards

Phil.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf the-art-of-war.pdf   139 KB | 554 downloads
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,009
  • Feb 22, 2017 11:16am Feb 22, 2017 11:16am
Anybody making enough to give up their day job?
Stop or target...
  • #57,010
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:59pm Feb 22, 2017 4:59pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Kleinewaise here is the pdf of AoW from the thread, it will take many reads and require thinking for yourself to learn how to apply it to your trading, it is the best trading book available in my personal opinion and you will continually learn from it. regards Phil. {image}
thanks Phil!
-Dan
  • #57,011
  • Feb 22, 2017 9:18pm Feb 22, 2017 9:18pm
Dear everyone, yesterday there are some tearing between EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, JPY gain strength and EUR, GBP encountered weakness, since there are no immediate events on JPY, and it also doesn't involve hedgers, as USD weakness doesn't show on all other majors, so is it big players using EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY cross chart to hunt ducks?
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In order to spot whether big players are using cross chart to bargain is to look at the selling of EUR and GBP, as this will prop up USD, especially when they can hit sell stop, they then convert their USD to JPY when USD is at a higher price, so from chart, when GBP/USD and EUR/USD are pulsing downward, USD/JPY is retracing upward, and the downward pulse is greater then the upward retracement, as big players are still selling USD for JPY. The upward retracement of euro,pound will be smaller than the downward run leg of yen, is my understanding correct? If not pls let me know so I can give myself a good slap, thank you
  • #57,012
  • Feb 23, 2017 12:49am Feb 23, 2017 12:49am
Quoting GoldenFinger
Dear everyone, yesterday there are some tearing between EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, JPY gain strength and EUR, GBP encountered weakness, since there are no immediate events on JPY, and it also doesn't involve hedgers, as USD weakness doesn't show on all other majors, so is it big players using EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY cross chart to hunt ducks? {image} {image} {image} In order to spot whether big players are using cross chart to bargain is to look at the selling of EUR and GBP, as this will prop up USD, especially when they can hit sell stop, they then...
Hi GoldenFinger

I was not trading yesterday but was watching charts all day, the U/J spike you are referring to was caused by some unexpected euro news, from what I saw USDs where sold off in E/U(E/U rise) mainly and most where used to buy U/J (U/J rise),though other pairs did react a little too, the main move was in these two, FOMC was due a couple of hours later and the experts told us their crystal balls predicted a learn towards a USD rise soon, just guessing but I assume as U/J fell all day prior that is why people bought U/J.

Here is the news

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=642397

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=642412

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,013
  • Feb 23, 2017 2:31am Feb 23, 2017 2:31am
Quoting kleinewaise
thanks for the reply everyone. Will continue to fight, learn and do whatever it takes internalize this MO in trading and in life. Started reading the Art of War I got from an uncle that has been collecting dust on my bookshelf for 10 years now. -Dan
No probs Dan.

As you read AOW: look at eur yesterday we had the long down and then we had some rangey stuff and some news: the guy in question said he would announce it yesterday afternoon (I missed that): I felt the loss of interest in selling (or think I did) after 1 news event and before the next. But if you look at rangey action (lots of fires going on inside it) before and the surprise news event: then seek answers to what to do in AOW that may help with the studies - this is what I am trying to do now so I really learn the strength of AOW. There is also some great youtube stuff on AOW and Giles's notes Giles_TAOW.txt (think) that helped me.

If you like we could compare notes here on AOW as you read it as I am trying to properly study it now - my previous read throughs were weak TBH.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,014
  • Edited 5:12am Feb 23, 2017 4:40am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting GoldenFinger
Dear everyone, yesterday there are some tearing between EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, JPY gain strength and EUR, GBP encountered weakness, since there are no immediate events on JPY, and it also doesn't involve hedgers, as USD weakness doesn't show on all other majors, so is it big players using EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY cross chart to hunt ducks? {image} {image} {image} In order to spot whether big players are using cross chart to bargain is to look at the selling of EUR and GBP, as this will prop up USD, especially when they can hit sell stop, they then...
With the USD like that, political turmoil because of trump, many are interested in rotating out of their USD exposure, so duck hunts which you see. So you see, jpy is sort of a proxy for USD, hence the crosses may flow like that, in the light that Wednesday has fomc releases, which is a major wildcard event.
  • #57,015
  • Feb 25, 2017 12:14am Feb 25, 2017 12:14am
  •  turnfx
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Only money management is the key of | 334 Posts
Quoting fti
ou{quote} ancient old chinese thingy. honourable follow unto the end. In ancient times, is believed that when head kicks bucket, a whole generation of peeps disappears. the filial piety it no more exist. i think. anyone still practise it would be deemed mad in today's environment. only romeo and juliet. maybe not mad. regards ooops but that was also ancient. anyway, its in writings, I don't really know, that time 207BC I still very liquid. probably was the law of the times. Or maybe the pen heard copied from remeo, anyway...

Hi Fti How are you . your thread is too long almost 3000 pages not about to readfully but i readed 300 pages this thread i got many new think and doing practicewith ur rules. but my problem is that when the market againest me i lose my whole account in single day i need little help to you that guide me where to get some information about Pa & MO or can you teach me about that

by the way thanks for nice and helpfull thread
  • #57,016
  • Feb 25, 2017 2:24am Feb 25, 2017 2:24am
Quoting turnfx
{quote} Hi Fti How are you . your thread is too long almost 3000 pages not about to readfully but i readed 300 pages this thread i got many new think and doing practicewith ur rules. but my problem is that when the market againest me i lose my whole account in single day i need little help to you that guide me where to get some information about Pa & MO or can you teach me about that by the way thanks for nice and helpfull thread
Hello Turnfx,

I have surfaced for a moment and, if you don't mind, would attempt to share my understanding and experience. I have read the whole TAF Thread, and first 200 pages at least twice, some posts - several times, having internalized the FTI's wisdom since July last year, got the following outcome: BE. Two big drawdowns due to my own human being stupidity.

As one can see, you are trading 1 full lot and making USD 130 per year.

The core FTI's methodology is indeed within the first 200 pages (please read it carefully and pose exact questions to your friends here) and implies having proper Mindset, Money Management, Capitalisation. Market knowledge, PA - this is where price goes now.

My humble understanding in brief: use small scout first, then be agile and do have steel balls. E.g., I would make your USD 130 per two weeks keeping my scout at 0.01 Lot (mine, it should be not more than 1/10 of trading deposit). I will not make more than 3 rescue attempts trigerred on PA in my favour. All the MM calculation is based on my individual pain threshold. E.g., I would bite the bullet if the Rescue 3 fails in reaching 15 - 30% or Leverage X7-8. That would cause loosing only some 3-5% of the deposit nad never any wiping, blowing or MC. But everything is very individual. Because it is your Mindset, your CAP and your ability to hold AOW, recognize the PA and apply MM nimbly.

As I underlined in my recent posts here, it is extremely hard to make living quickly and having a low pain threshold. One must spend years trading rather very small. In my modest opinion, the (your own) Pain Threshold issue is of high importance for success and survival.

I believe, our friends here would help you more.

Enjoy the trading curve process.

Submerging again.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,017
  • Feb 25, 2017 3:45am Feb 25, 2017 3:45am
Quoting turnfx
{quote} Hi Fti How are you . your thread is too long almost 3000 pages not about to readfully but i readed 300 pages this thread i got many new think and doing practicewith ur rules. but my problem is that when the market againest me i lose my whole account in single day i need little help to you that guide me where to get some information about Pa & MO or can you teach me about that by the way thanks for nice and helpfull thread
Hi, just to point you in the right direction, look at the big loss day, why did you rescue? Were you rescuing against the trend? We do not trade against the trend here.
  • #57,018
  • Feb 25, 2017 5:01am Feb 25, 2017 5:01am
  •  turnfx
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Only money management is the key of | 334 Posts
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Turnfx, I have surfaced for a moment and, if you don't mind, would attempt to share my understanding and experience. I have read the whole TAF Thread, and first 200 pages at least twice, some posts - several times, having internalized the FTI's wisdom since July last year, got the following outcome: BE. Two big drawdowns due to my own human being stupidity. As one can see, you are trading 1 full lot and making USD 130 per year. The core FTI's methodology is indeed within the first 200 pages (please read it carefully and pose exact...
i realized that my problem is Money management because when i market againest me i try to recovery with x3 sometime its does but sometime recently i losse 1500 usd account i realized that my scout with 2.0 lot and rescuse was 6.0 and it's tottally the wrong MM
anyway thanks for ur kind word i will read again and need to do some more practice
  • #57,019
  • Feb 25, 2017 5:03am Feb 25, 2017 5:03am
  •  turnfx
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Only money management is the key of | 334 Posts
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi, just to point you in the right direction, look at the big loss day, why did you rescue? Were you rescuing against the trend? We do not trade against the trend here.
no Bro i was not againset the trend but but cuz for fundies took the market againest me
  • #57,020
  • Edited 3:08am Feb 26, 2017 2:52am | Edited 3:08am
Quoting turnfx
{quote} no Bro i was not againset the trend but but cuz for fundies took the market againest me
Fundies? Are you exposed to news?
Could you also state how many troopers can you spare in terms of scout?

Could you give a sample trade of such a trade example?

Can't help you much now as more information is needed.

Is your demo account about $1000?
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