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  • #861
  • Edited 10:58am Feb 20, 2017 10:27am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting hanover
{quote} I didn't hire anybody. At various times I've had three different buddies who were all traders. We would simply chat on skype, sometimes exchanging strategies and ideas and talking about trading in general; sometimes we would talk about women, sports, politics, world events, computer gaming, whatever...... anything to pass the time and alleviate boredom and loneliness, while watching and discussing charts and monitoring our respective trades. The arrangement was that whenever I wanted to exit a position I would have to justify my reasons,...
its a very good way in starting trading.

after some years you learn very fast all things you can do by your own, and mastering emotions will be very easy, because all will become a hobby and a math game. and you have time to do many other things same time with other people. only when you need to scalp you need to be fast on many displays, rest can be done with one display on the way outside often. some programs to highlite the important facts to save time and show all possible trades , and simple trading the trades. trading will only be difficult on the beginning, later you are out of the business or its more easy then any hobby if you play it like a math game.

the only advantage in having people around is trading 24 hours a day manually, but when trading many years you dont have to do this, because its enough won allready and you dont need any trade, because there are so many with so many strategies all the time.
  • #862
  • Feb 20, 2017 10:41am Feb 20, 2017 10:41am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Great Thought Provoking experience you shared Hanover... Checks and Balances with external help that is objective... One question if you could,: In the future, one of my ideas is to hire somebody to do the trading on my behalf (Mitigating the emotional aspect of trading): Executing the Entry and Exit and the guidelines being provided by me? Do you see any potential downside to this kind of approach? In general what are your thoughts on such a thing... Thanks for taking the time
when you hire someone you will have a problem after some time often: because when you have fundamental edges that work at heavy points he will check it fast and will trade same time his money and after some time he dont need to trade anymore for you and you need to look again for a new one.

if you only trade statistical edges its ok, because this edges change very often and need to calculte more often.

why you dont program your trading ? when you have easy rules to let trade an other one, it looks possible to program it and you are more save and need less money, less efford, dont need many trust,.... all you need to think about, you need a good programmer or learn it by your own. is a programmer dont put in 1-2 backups system against anything what can happen inside a program or the broker you are using, you should change this programmer (if you want trade many open trades same time, to risky for bad programming style).
  • #863
  • Feb 21, 2017 1:27am Feb 21, 2017 1:27am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} when you hire someone you will have a problem after some time often: because when you have fundamental edges that work at heavy points he will check it fast and will trade same time his money and after some time he dont need to trade anymore for you and you need to look again for a new one. if you only trade statistical edges its ok, because this edges change very often and need to calculte more often. why you dont program your trading ? when you have easy rules to let trade an other one, it looks possible to program it and you are more...
Dukas Trader,

You have pointed the disadvantages of this approach. Thanks a lot for for this. Also, you make a great point that if others can trade for us, that means it can be programmed as well.

If you could help me better understand:

1. What is the difference between "Fundamental Edge" vs "Statistical Edge"?

2. You said the following:

"is a programmer dont put in 1-2 backups system against anything what can happen inside a program or the broker you are using, you should change this programmer."

Can you please kindly explain what it means.

Thanks a lot Dukas Trader for the help.
  • #864
  • Edited 3:03am Feb 21, 2017 2:48am | Edited 3:03am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Dukas Trader, You have pointed the disadvantages of this approach. Thanks a lot for for this. Also, you make a great point that if others can trade for us, that means it can be programmed as well. If you could help me better understand: 1. What is the difference between "Fundamental Edge" vs "Statistical Edge"? 2. You said the following: "is a programmer dont put in 1-2 backups system against anything what can happen inside a program or the broker you are using, you should change this programmer." Can you please kindly...
to 1: statistical edges are calculated edges (often done by programs), that dont have fundamental reasons behind the logic, why it works. for example when you win more then you lose when you buy 10 pip higher then the moving average and close it after 10 pips with 10 pip SL. then there is no fundamental reason behind it, this behavior can change in weeks, years,..... and often needs to recalculate. this was only a simple example, is it enough to understand?

fundamental edges are market behaviors, often come in play to get an advantage, like market open times behavior , new laws and changed behavior of market members,.....
for example, when you trade "buy" in the dax after the german main trading time (so from 17.30-9 german time) you get a much bether result then holding it the whole day. because in the crisis and changed laws banks needed reduce selftrades and so the liquity was sinking. risks to hold positions over night was so much higher. many participants was so bring in trouble to hold overnight. this is only one example, but you have in this case an advantage with a reason behind. even when dax is falling over the 9-17.45 time since 2009 very often, from 17.45-9 you could get a win with this strategy, even with the nikkei. its only a simple example, maybe it can help to understand the difference between fundamental and statistical more easy.


to 2.:"is a programmer dont put in 1-2 backups system against anything what can happen inside a program or the broker you are using, you should change this programmer."
with a trading program you are very fast, you dont lose the 0,125 seconds reality gap or even or even double time gap when blinking. offcourse the thinking and pushing a button gap will even come additionally. "thinking" and "pushing " gap can be reduced by training, "reality" and "blinking" gap is offcourse impossible to reduce.
but same time you are fast, this can kill you when there are some bad program mistakes. in a blink you can have hundreds of orders and more and more each second.
you should backup against any common possible mistakes.
as examples:
- using more then 1 terminal open on differnet servers, to get solved the problem with no internet connection or electric power problems. offcourse the terminals need to communicate with each one, to know that both are online or not. (at least an extra program for getting out of the trades is neccesary, getting in problems with bad internetconnectioon let only miss a trade, thats not that important for morst traders)
- dont let your program open to many trades in whatever situation what can happen, even when broker chnages behavioar of magicnumber or comment field.
- get informed about any error in the program and all states by messages/notifications or what ever.... to be sure you dont need to look at it, and aggregated trading report each hour is also a good feel save thing.
- get informed to about missing quotes, lag price updates, terminal connection problems,...
- never let anything in your program be allowed to be calculated, what can have the zero number in dividing. it can happen more often then you may think. as example some brokers shut down their prices and account information to maintain platform and you get for your equity the number zero in this time, by dont checking this number when dividing with this number, you can kill very easy the programm and it will be stopped.
.... its a long list........

i dont know if its enough to understand.if you have questions, you can ask.
  • #865
  • Feb 21, 2017 6:49am Feb 21, 2017 6:49am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} to 1: statistical edges are calculated edges (often done by programs), that dont have fundamental reasons behind the logic, why it works. for example when you win more then you lose when you buy 10 pip higher then the moving average and close it after 10 pips with 10 pip SL. then there is no fundamental reason behind it, this behavior can change in weeks, years,..... and often needs to recalculate. this was only a simple example, is it enough to understand? fundamental edges are market behaviors, often come in play to get an advantage, like...
Dukas Trader,

Excellent thought process and Inputs. Some of the topics you have touched like magic numbers, comment fields etc... I wasn't aware about them/their importance...

1. You said:

"never let anything in your program be allowed to be calculated, what can have the zero number in dividing. it can happen more often then you may think. as example some brokers shut down their prices and account information to maintain platform and you get for your equity the number zero in this time, by dont checking this number when dividing with this number, you can kill very easy the programm and it will be stopped."

Some calculation like A/X in program; just make sure X is never zero (or) if X=0 make sure it doesn't come in the denominator, cause it will break the programe.
Is my understanding correctly?

2. I had a felling going from a trading strategy to automating it would involve work and you have pointed so many potential pitfalls when the program isn't designed well. I am thankful for such wonderful guidance...

Is there a methodology/book that one can follow to know more about the best practices of creation of the EA/Program?

You have really taken time from your schedule to give so many pointers. It means a lot...
  • #866
  • Edited 8:48am Feb 21, 2017 8:03am | Edited 8:48am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Dukas Trader, Excellent thought process and Inputs. Some of the topics you have touched like magic numbers, comment fields etc... I wasn't aware about them/their importance... 1. You said: "never let anything in your program be allowed to be calculated, what can have the zero number in dividing. it can happen more often then you may think. as example some brokers shut down their prices and account information to maintain platform and you get for your equity the number zero in this time, by dont checking this number when dividing with...
0. magic number and comment field are very important points in creating an expert advisor. you also need globale variable when you need to communicate with other programs (or use a supervisor program or master program for trading other programs with this program) and some pipes for communicationg between terminals (but this dont look at it from the start : file open/read is enough at start).

1. yes, check allways with a "if" function, that you dont divide a variable with "zero" content. if the variable is 0, dont let it calculate if unimportant , or inform you and stop trading till it can be calculated again when its important for trading. but any way: any important varaible need to be checked if calculated correctly to allow trading. if you let a zeri come in the denominator, then your expert advisor will stop and the terminal will shut it down. there are many shut down reasons to be backuped, but this is one important of them.

2. most easy is learning by doing for your own. start looking at simple programs and find out why some things are done.
reading books is only so good like the coder was. but every coder has its own style, you need to find your style. reading other programs is often so difficult, programming it new is often more easy and save then using an other program and learn what was done. but from beginning to learn its very good.
and learn it the hard way. dont program many functions or include files in the first months (start using it and simplify the code after you did find out, you have one code many many times used in a similar way: until then simple copy it and change it, its much easier to start so)

you allways learn new, never find yourself stupid for what you have done 1 month before, thats normal, dont think about it. when you program something, and come back after 2 weeks/ months/ years about it, you will find a way to have much bether results, much bether calculation, much less backtest time, 1 time running prozess for backtest optimizing,....... you will be getting bether and bether, and thought, why you did not before from starting this way, but this is going process and you often eed some days sleep and think then again about the programm and get new ideas.

most important is perfect concept about an program in structure and fastest possible speed. if you need an optimizer then something is missed in your programm allready, normally programms should put out the best results by their own on the end. and this results need to be in your before calculated aerea or the basic thinking about the strategy was wrong.
  • #867
  • Feb 21, 2017 8:14am Feb 21, 2017 8:14am
Quoting Calculus
{quote} Also Body builders and ex-pro sports players. In the old Chicago pits there were many of both, especially the sports guys. Probably not a bunch of more disciplined people on the planet than body builders. Both know and understand the importance of strong discipline and following a plan.
Body builders make good traders? what a load of rubbish!
List some body builders that can solve complicated puzzles or beat a chess master or are expert gamblers.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #868
  • Feb 21, 2017 9:16am Feb 21, 2017 9:16am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} 0. magic number and comment field are very important points in creating an expert advisor. you also need globale variable when you need to communicate with other programs (or use a supervisor program or master program for trading other programs with this program) and some pipes for communicationg between terminals (but this dont look at it from the start : file open/read is enough at start). 1. yes, check allways with a "if" function, that you dont divide a variable with "zero" content. if the variable is 0, dont let it calculate if unimportant...
Thanks a Lot Dukas Trader for imparting great knowledge about taking precautions on automation...
  • #869
  • Feb 21, 2017 9:31am Feb 21, 2017 9:31am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} to 1: statistical edges are calculated edges (often done by programs), that dont have fundamental reasons behind the logic, why it works. for example when you win more then you lose when you buy 10 pip higher then the moving average and close it after 10 pips with 10 pip SL. then there is no fundamental reason behind it, this behavior can change in weeks, years,..... and often needs to recalculate. this was only a simple example, is it enough to understand? fundamental edges are market behaviors, often come in play to get an advantage, like...
Dukas Trader,

In what category do trading systems consisting of indicators fall into?

I mean, Ex: RSI+Stocahstic System: Sell when both RSI and Stoch above 80...

a.Can we treat it as fundamental edge?:Since they represent prices closing at the high and people can start taking their profits(reverse orders) and markets reversing sort of market behavior

b. Do we treat it as Statistical Edge: Since we Sell when RSI and Stoch above 80, and as it purely based on mathematical calculations?

The above are just made up examples and observations...

Thanks.
  • #870
  • Feb 21, 2017 9:40am Feb 21, 2017 9:40am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Dukas Trader, In what category do trading systems consisting of indicators fall into? I mean, Ex: RSI+Stocahstic System: Sell when both RSI and Stoch above 80... a.Can we treat it as fundamental edge?:Since they represent prices closing at the high and people can start taking their profits(reverse orders) and markets reversing sort of market behavior b. Do we treat it as Statistical Edge: Since we Sell when RSI and Stoch above 80, and as it purely based on mathematical calculations? The above are just made up examples and observations......
this is statistical edge by 100%. if you trade it at special points/times/prize areas/ currencies/ because of some laws/ marketbevahior of the big players/ ...... , then you have fundamental edges too.
but i cant say to much about it, because i dont know any more then you try to catch a pullback or a sideway trend from this 2 indicator informations.

as easy basic rule: when you can say, that sometimes there its bether this value or this value as input or parameter, its most of the time an statistic edge. when you can have only fixed parameters to have best results you have more a fundamental edge.

there are also many people who dont split this edges in 2 parts, and only trade any edge and simple add them to one sum. for me its more easy to split them because so its a more realistic calculateable moneymanagement structure to use, but i am only one person, many ways will find to Rome.
  • #871
  • Feb 21, 2017 10:08am Feb 21, 2017 10:08am
Most traders fail because to be of benefit to a free market economy speculators must lose so that the real contributors to society (people who MAKE THINGS that are USEFUL to others) can prosper
  • #872
  • Feb 21, 2017 10:32am Feb 21, 2017 10:32am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} this is statistical edge by 100%. if you trade it at special points/times/prize areas/ currencies/ because of some laws/ marketbevahior of the big players/ ...... , then you have fundamental edges too. but i cant say to much about it, because i dont know any more then you try to catch a pullback or a sideway trend from this 2 indicator informations. as easy basic rule: when you can say, that sometimes there its bether this value or this value as input or parameter, its most of the time an statistic edge. when you can have only fixed parameters...
Thanks Dukas Trader for the new insights....
  • #873
  • Edited 11:05am Feb 21, 2017 10:35am | Edited 11:05am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Dukas Trader, Excellent thought process and Inputs. Some of the topics you have touched like magic numbers, comment fields etc... I wasn't aware about them/their importance... 1. You said: "never let anything in your program be allowed to be calculated, what can have the zero number in dividing. it can happen more often then you may think. as example some brokers shut down their prices and account information to maintain platform and you get for your equity the number zero in this time, by dont checking this number when dividing with...
This from the same loser who follows every 90% win rate thread? loser. You are the worst type of trader out there. You not only followed but defended a well known scam. So basically you know nothing about FX and are a loser. I see your not following your buddy ghost biker anymore hey!? what happened to that? You talk big but wouldn't know how to trade to save your life.
  • #874
  • Edited 10:49am Feb 21, 2017 10:38am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Thanks Dukas Trader for the new insights....
there are so many truths out there, anyone needs to find his own way, because there can only win some, and most need to lose, its allways this way and cant any other. so the market is structured and will not change.

allways remember one important rule: dont fear any loss! never ever. welcome any loss. set a stoploss and the money you will lose is allready lost for you (in your mind) when opening the trade. so anything from this time is a gain, when closed not in SL.
there is one important thing, you need losses, you need many, you need them often, you need them in many times. only when you have this losses you can calculate the risk of your strategy. if you cant see the losses, then you trade against broker (like with arbitrage) or martingale/no Sl using .... and will lose all on the end.
only losses help you to create the perfect moneymanagement for your strategy box. if you behind this, you have reached 95% of the goal a trader can reach, trading is not that difficult. many only try to do it most complicated way.
  • #875
  • Feb 21, 2017 11:03am Feb 21, 2017 11:03am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} there is one important thing, you need losses, you need many, you need them often, you need them in many times. only when you have this losses you can calculate the risk of your strategy.
Surely a demo account will allow you to calculate this. I dont see why you need to have many losses, surely you have no edge at all - stop trading or try something else. You should know the conditions when your strategy works & when it doesn't. All testing can be done in demo and then Live with small stakes.
Why do traders need to believe that they must lose to be successful, it doesn't make any sense at all.

Traders lose because they have no edge to start with, discipline & money management with no edge is always going to be a disaster.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #876
  • Feb 21, 2017 11:04am Feb 21, 2017 11:04am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} there are so many truths out there, anyone needs to find his own way, because there can only win some, and most need to lose, its allways this way and cant any other. so the market is structured and will not change. allways remember one important rule: dont fear any loss! never ever. welcome any loss. set a stoploss and the money you will lose is allready lost for you (in your mind) when opening the trade. so anything from this time is a gain, when closed not in SL. there is one important thing, you need losses, you need many, you need them...
Thanks Dukas Trader...

I agree with your assessment about accepting loses. It has been the biggest challenge for me and still working on it. About having losses and how tying the losses in getting the profit factor it's a new thing i have learnt from you. So losses do serve a purpose...

If i may ask, how long did it take for you be profitable and if time permits do tell us how you overcame any big challenges you faced...

Thanks
  • #877
  • Feb 21, 2017 11:09am Feb 21, 2017 11:09am
Aaven is a wanker. Go look at how much he defended a scam artist goshtbiker! Well aaven claims to be from India so no surprise.....
  • #878
  • Feb 21, 2017 11:10am Feb 21, 2017 11:10am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Surely a demo account will allow you to calculate this. I dont see why you need to have many losses, surely you have no edge at all - stop trading or try something else. You should know the conditions when your strategy works & when it doesn't. All testing can be done in demo and then Live with small stakes. Why do traders need to believe that they must lose to be successful, it doesn't make any sense at all. Traders lose because they have no edge to start with, discipline & money management with no edge is always going to be a disaster....
then say hello to the truth. when you have this losses in demo account you will get the losses in real account too, when you trade this strategy.

start using real account with small money and dont wast time in demo account. use demo when you are extrem unexperienced, but even then a very little cent account is much much bether to learn it a little bit more realistic. demo accounts often dont show slippage, dont show high increasing spread, dont show problems by getting in/out the market by an broker,... often even have bether quotes.

so i am no fan of demo account.

and where i am writing about having losses higher then wins? when you trade you need many losses, offcourse you need much more wins or you will lose on the end. but do we speak about losing strategies?

maybe you did not read correctly, i spoke about having many losses, not about losing strategy.
  • #879
  • Feb 21, 2017 11:20am Feb 21, 2017 11:20am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} to 1: statistical edges are calculated edges (often done by programs), that dont have fundamental reasons behind the logic, why it works. for example when you win more then you lose when you buy 10 pip higher then the moving average and close it after 10 pips with 10 pip SL. then there is no fundamental reason behind it, this behavior can change in weeks, years,..... and often needs to recalculate. this was only a simple example, is it enough to understand? fundamental edges are market behaviors, often come in play to get an advantage, like...
Wow!, am just left amazed by your posts here. You must be really good or are an instructor or somewhat in the market, great work!
  • #880
  • Feb 21, 2017 11:25am Feb 21, 2017 11:25am
Quoting baile
{quote} Wow!, am just left amazed by your posts here. You must be really good or are an instructor or somewhat in the market, great work!
Agree. Dukas Trader has seen some stuff... Great Insights from the man...
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